Warner Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty. Look, I’ve scanned the charts for this stretch, and honestly, the next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag with no real standout sessions that’ll have you calling in sick. There’s a lot of lumpy, cross-shore wind and onshore chop messing things up, so you’ll need to pick your moments carefully. The first decent-looking window doesn’t even show up until August 2nd, and even then it’s marginal. Let’s break it down.

Warner Beach is the only break on offer here, and it’s exposed to the southeast. The water’s sitting at 72°F right now, which is about average for this time of year—nothing out of the ordinary.

Right now, Thursday July 30th is a write-off. We’ve got a 8ft S swell with a period of 9 seconds, but a fresh 35 km/h SW cross-wind is just shredding it. The combined wave energy is a whopping 1017 (moderate), but that’s all messy energy—poor surf. Thursday afternoon bumps up to 10ft, same story, even more energy (1260), but the wind’s still cross and strong. Not worth paddling out. Friday July 31st is more of the same: 8ft SSE swell, still cross-wind at 30 km/h, energy at 1214 – lumpy and choppy. Saturday August 1st drops to 7ft SE swell, wind backing off a bit to 20 km/h, but it’s still cross-shore and the conditions are just marginal at best.

Now, Sunday August 2nd starts to look a little more interesting. The swell’s up to 8ft from the SE with a longer period of 11 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy (1483). The wind drops to a light 10 km/h cross-on, so it won't be glassy but it’ll be cleaner. The morning gets a score of 2, afternoon a 3 – not a standout, but it’s probably the best you’ll see for a while. The 8ft swell is a bit solid for beginners, though.

Monday August 3rd brings a shift: 7ft ESE swell, period 10 seconds, and for the first time we get a light NE wind at 5 km/h, making it cross-shore and glassy in the morning. Energy’s at 796 (moderate), and while the wave comment says “marginal,” the conditions are better. The afternoon gets a bit breezier at 15 km/h, but still cross-shore.

From Tuesday August 4th through to Friday August 7th, we’re dropping down in size – 4ft down to 2ft – and the wind keeps swinging around. There’s a brief window on Wednesday afternoon August 5th with a tiny 3ft ESE swell, period 9 seconds, and glassy conditions – but the energy’s only 199 and it’s pretty ordinary. Not a day to get excited about.

The weekend of August 8th and 9th is a little bigger again. Saturday August 8th is small and messy, but Sunday August 9th shows promise: 7ft ENE swell, period 8 seconds (short period wind swell), but with a light 10 km/h NE cross-wind. Energy hits 1078 (moderate). The morning scores a 3, which is the best score of the entire forecast. That’s your pick of the week – not perfect, but cleaner and with some push. The 7ft is still a bit chunky for beginners.

Then from August 10th onwards, it gets sloppy again with onshore winds, and the swell pulses up to 10ft on August 11th from the SSW (period 11 seconds), but with cross-on wind and a wave comment that says it’s too big for this break – 2964 energy, that’s strong to very strong. Only experts should even look at that, and even then it’s not clean.

After the 11th, it fades into small, poor conditions right through to August 14th. There’s just nothing to recommend in the second week.

So, overall: don’t paddle out until Sunday August 2nd for a chance at some reasonable waves, and the best bet is Sunday August 9th in the morning – cleanest conditions and decent 7ft swell from the ENE. Crowds are possible since it’s fair weather and the only game in town.

Rusty.

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