Warner Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, listen up. Rusty here, and we're looking at the next couple of weeks at Warner Beach. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest. For a spot that usually offers something, we've got a long stretch of nothing good at the start, before a few days that get proper interesting, but they come with a big warning.

Right now, the immediate outlook is poor. The first real surf action we can talk about doesn't show up until Thursday the 17th, and even then, it's marginal. From now until late Wednesday the 16th, it's all messy cross-shore winds and choppy surf, with the swell often too big and blown out. A frustrating gap of a few days with nothing worth paddling out for.

On Thursday the 17th, things start to look a bit cleaner. The morning is the pick with an offshore cross-off wind from the WSW at 9 mph. We've got a small 4.6ft swell from the east with a moderate 10-second period. The combined energy is weak (606), so don't expect much push, but it’ll be clean, which is a major positive.

Now, hold on to your board, because Friday the 18th and the weekend get weird. The swell pumps up to 10-11.5ft from the ESE to SE. The combined energy jumps to massive numbers (3405 on Friday morning), showing strong wave energy. The wind is light and favourable, meaning the surf will be clean and lined up. The problem? It's simply too big for Warner Beach. This is strictly for expert paddlers only, and even then, it's pushing it. The 11.5ft on Friday morning with a period of 9 seconds is a serious wall of water. Saturday the 19th sees another 9.8ft swell with a longer 11-second period, adding more grunt. Great for the photos, but not a beginner's playground.

After that big push, the swell drops back. Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st are still a bit bumpy with cross-shore winds, and the swell stays in the 6.9-8.2ft range, but the quality drops off. The next interesting window is Monday the 21st afternoon when a new 13.1ft swell from the SSW rolls in with an offshore wind. Again, it’s clean and powerful (2985 combined energy), but once more, it’s just too big for the break.

The rest of the forecast period from around the 22nd onward fades back into poor surf with onshore winds and small, weak swell. We get a tiny bump on Monday the 28th with a 7.5ft swell from the NE, but it's a cross-on wind and the setup is marginal at best.

The standout here is undeniably the Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th window. If you are a very, very experienced surfer and can handle solid 9.8-11.5ft, clean, east-southeast groundswell, that's your moment. The water temp is about 69°F, which is just a touch cooler than average for this time of year (anomaly of -0.8°), so a 3/2 wetsuit is the call.

For the rest of us, setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer on those big days. A frustrating run, but it won't be quiet for long.

Read more