Warner Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Warner Beach.

This stretch has a bit of a split personality over the next 16 days. We’ve got a whole lot of days with messy, blown-out, or just plain tiny surf, but right in the middle and right at the very end, there are a couple of moments that’ll make it worth keeping an eye on. The real standout is an incredible Wednesday morning a week from now. Hold on, though, because there’s also a monster swell closing out the window that’s going to be way too big for this spot.

The first day, Saturday the 22nd, offers a tiny 1ft SSW swell with 14-second period, but it’s coming with a 12 mph cross-off breeze. It’s clean but there’s no real energy – combined energy is only 164 – and the report says poor surf conditions. Not worth paddling out. Sunday the 23rd jumps up to a 7ft SSW swell with 10-second period. The wind is a 16 mph cross-on and it’s choppy. That’s a no-go. Monday and Tuesday (24th & 25th) are small, messy, and weak, with energy barely cracking 200-300. A real flat spell.

Here’s where it gets good. Wednesday morning, the 26th of August. This is the one. We’ve got a 4ft swell from the south with an absolutely massive 18-second period – that’s very long-period groundswell. The wind is glassy, just 3 mph from the SSE, which is basically nothing. The water temp is about 71°F, which is about average for this time of year. The combined wave energy is a solid 1061 (moderate), and the report calls it excellent for experienced surfers. That long period will groom the swell beautifully here at Warner Beach (exposed, optimum direction is ESE). It’ll be clean, lined up, and worth getting wet for. Just keep in mind that long-period energy like this means longer waits between sets, but the paddle-out will be easier.

Thursday and Friday the 27th and 28th turn ugly again. The wind howls from the northeast at 19-22 mph, making for lumpy, cross-shore chop. The swell sticks around at 5ft to 8ft, but the quality is gone. The weekend of the 29th and 30th stays in that same windy, cross-shore zone. Some of the swell gets up to 8ft, but with short 7-8 second periods and that stiff NE wind, it’s going to be a messy, bumpy mess. That sort of setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The first few days of September are similar – poor quality, lumpy, and mostly cross-shore wind from the northeast.

Then, on Friday the 4th of September, the forecast shows a massive 13ft SSW swell. The combined energy is a huge 2768. The problem? That’s way too big for Warner Beach. The report says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break – expert only territory, and even then, it’s dicey with a fresh 19 mph cross-shore wind. Saturday the 5th drops to 8ft SSE swell, but the wind goes cross-on and it gets choppy again. Sunday the 6th is small, mediocre, and barely worth a mention.

So, to wrap it up: your absolute best bet is the morning of Wednesday the 26th of August. That glassy, long-period south swell is the standout. The end of the run on the 4th of September has the size, but it’s too much of a beast for this break. Everything else in between is either too small, too windy, or too sloppy.

Stay stoked, and keep an eye on the sky.

- Rusty

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