Warner Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again, giving you the same outlook in feet and miles per hour for the imperial crew.

Right off the bat, it’s a rough start. The first few days are a total loss. On Sunday the 23rd, we’ve got a solid 8ft S swell, but the wind is howling cross-onshore at 12 mph. The energy is high (1199), but the surface is choppy and blown out – not worth paddling for. That afternoon, the swell drops to 6ft, but the wind stays onshore, and it’s still poor. Monday the 24th is a hard pass – a tiny 4ft S swell with cross-shore winds, still marginal. The energy drops to 274, and it’s just not doing anything.

Tuesday the 25th is a total dud – a 2ft SSW swell with a long 16-second period, but it’s getting hammered by a 12 mph cross-onshore wind. The water temperature is about average for this time of year. Wednesday the 26th shows a bit of hope – a 4ft S swell with a very long 18-second period (energy 888) – but the morning is cross-shore and the afternoon turns fully onshore. It’s still marginal. The 6ft S swell that afternoon is powerful (1960 energy), but with onshore wind, it’s just a messy closeout.

Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th are dominated by strong NE winds, gusting up to 22 mph. The swell is still there, but the wind is ruining it. By Friday afternoon, the swell jumps to 8ft from the ENE, but with a short 8-second period and that fresh cross-shore wind, it’s lumpy, choppy, and dangerous. The energy is moderate (1165), but the quality is zero. Saturday the 29th is even worse – 10ft ENE swell with a 25 mph cross-shore wind. That’s big, messy, and only for experts. The whole run from the 23rd to the 31st of August is a near-total blank. There’s surf, but it’s all poor to marginal.

We finally get a glimpse of something better on Monday the 31st of August. The morning shows a tiny 3ft E swell with a light cross-onshore breeze and a 9-second period. The energy is weak (259), and it’s still marginal. It’s the first sign of life, but it’s not a standout.

The real standout is Tuesday the 1st of September. The afternoon brings a 7ft ENE swell with a short 8-second period, but here’s the key: the wind is from the NNE at 12 mph, and it’s cross-offshore. The guidance says the optimum swell direction is from the ESE, and this ENE swell is close enough, and the wind is clean. The report says “clean” conditions. The wave energy is moderate (611). This is a genuine window for Warner Beach. The crowd profile says “sometimes,” so you might have company, but with the conditions being clean, it’s going to be worth it. The swell is over 5ft, so it’s a bit much for beginners, but for intermediates, this is the best on offer.

After that, Wednesday the 2nd of September is a step back – a 6ft NE swell with a 7-second period and cross-shore wind, back to marginal. The 3rd of September is a non-event with a 2ft SSW swell. The 4th and 5th are poor, with onshore winds and weak swells. The 6th of September sees a 6ft ENE swell, but it’s short period (7 seconds) and the wind is strong and cross-shore – lumpy and messy. Finally, on Monday the 7th of September, the morning has a 3ft SSW swell with a 12-second period, and a strong cross-offshore wind (25 mph) that is reported as “clean.” The energy is moderate (697), but the swell is small. It’s a distant, less certain option, but it’s clean.

So, if you’re waiting for a wave, the best bet is the afternoon of Tuesday the 1st of September. Clean conditions and a solid 7ft ENE swell. The long gap from the 23rd of August to the 1st of September is a real bummer, but that one session should be worth the wait. After that, keep an eye on the 7th of September, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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