Warner Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. The next 16 days have a real mixed bag of conditions, but don’t get too excited too quick. The standout is a huge spike on Monday the 7th, but it’s a real caveat.

First up, the only real action on the table is Warner Beach. The forecast kicks off later this week, but the early days are a total write-off. Sunday the 6th is a non-starter with light cross-onshore wind and marginal 3ft swell from the east. Not worth paddling out.

Now, hold onto your board. On Monday morning, September 7, a massive pulse of long-period groundswell from the south hits. We’re looking at a solid 10ft of swell with a 17-second period from the south, and the combined energy is through the roof (4465). The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the NNE, so the waves will be glassy smooth. This is a true standout for experts only. At 10ft, it’s way too big for beginners. The 17-second period means long, powerful lines, but at a beach break like Warner Beach, it might be a bit too straight and fat. For the experienced crew, this is a morning session you won’t forget. But don’t sleep on the caveat – the swell direction is from the south, which is not the optimum ESE direction for this spot, so it could be a bit wonky.

The rest of the week is a bit of a letdown. Monday afternoon drops to 7ft, but the wind picks up from the NE to 25 km/h, making it a messy cross-shore chop. Tuesday through Thursday are much the same story with fresh cross-shore winds and lumpy, poor conditions. The swell is mostly from the east or ENE, with periods under 10 seconds, giving weak energy. The combined energy stays in the three-digit range, which is moderate at best.

By the weekend of the 12th, we get a slight improvement. Saturday morning, September 12, sees a 5ft swell from the east-northeast with a 9-second period, but the wind is a gentle cross-shore, so it’s only marginal. The combined energy is 644, which is moderate. It’s a “maybe” session, not a guarantee.

The second week is a bit of a blur. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no wild surprises there. There’s a small window on Sunday, September 13, with a 7ft swell from the east-northeast and a light onshore breeze from the SE, making for marginal conditions (energy 902). But the wind goes ballistic on Sunday afternoon to 30 km/h from the SSW, smashing the surf.

The real potential comes back at the very end of the forecast. On Saturday, September 19, we get a 7ft swell from the east-southeast with a 9-second period, and the wind is light from the SSW. The combined energy is 876, which is moderate. Then Sunday, September 20, is the best of the second week: a 8ft swell from the east with a 9-second period, and the wind is a glassy light breeze from the ENE. The combined energy is just over 1000 (1006), which is the start of strong energy. The wind is light and cross-shore, so the waves will be clean. This is a promising option, but it’s a long way out, so keep an eye on the forecasts.

Outside of those two spikes, the surf is fairly poor or marginal for most of the 16 days. There are gaps of several days in the middle of the second week where the conditions are just not worth it. If you’re a beginner, stick to the smaller days under 5ft, like around the 12th or the 16th. For the rest, the setup on the 7th is a once-in-a-blue-moon kind of event, but it’s strictly for the experts.

Rusty out.

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