Warner Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Warner Beach over the next couple of weeks.

First up, the opening of the window is pretty flat and messy – we’ve got small, weak combo swell with poor conditions through Wednesday and Thursday. Nothing worth paddling out for just yet. The real firecracker shows up Friday the 10th of July. That morning we’ve got a solid 7ft groundswell rolling in from the south, with a very long 15-second period packing some serious energy (combined energy of all swells directed here is 2308 – that’s strong, meaty stuff). On top of that, the wind is glassy offshore from the SE – just a slight air. That’s a standout window. This is a big swell though, over 8ft, so it’s expert territory. The break is exposed, and with that long period, it’ll be a proper groundswell – better suited to point breaks or reefs than a straight beach setup, but Warner Beach is exposed to the ESE optimum direction, and we’ve got a south swell, so it might wall up nicely. Keep an eye on the tide.

For the rest of the first week, we’ve got some drop-off and onshore chop through the weekend and into Monday. Not terrible – around 5ft to 5ft – but those cross-on winds mess with the face. Then Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th serve up another moment worth noting. Wednesday morning and afternoon both show 6ft ESE swell, and crucially, glassy conditions. Wind is dead calm or barely a zephyr. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s a sleeper day – clean, shoulder-high lines, and the combined energy is moderate (around 591 to 594). Crowds can be around, especially if it’s clean.

After that, we hit a gap. Thursday the 16th is a write-off with onshore chop and poor surf. Then Friday the 17th brings a big pulse – 8ft to 8ft south swell with a very long 17-second period, combined energy up at 3637 – that’s enormous, heavy water. But the wind is cross at 12-16 mph, and the wave comment is marginal. Too big, too messy for paddle surfing – more of a tow or kite day if the wind behaves.

Saturday the 18th is onshore junk with fresh breeze, and Sunday the 19th is light rain with cross-shore wind and a short period ENE windswell. Not great.

The second week has a few long-range promises. Monday the 20th shows a clean cross-off morning with a 5ft south groundswell at 18 seconds – very long period, combined energy 1795 – but the wind is moderate breeze from the NNE, so it’s clean but bumpy. Tuesday the 21st morning is similar: 7ft from the ENE, 10-second period, cross-off wind, clean. That’s promising but we’re 13 days out – less certain. Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd both have ENE swell around 8ft to 8ft with short period (8 seconds) and cross-off to cross winds. The energy is still strong, but that short period means lumpier, less organised waves.

The standout of the whole run is definitely Friday July 10th morning – the glassy, 7ft south groundswell. If you’re experienced and you can make that session, that’s the one. Wednesday the 15th is the other call – smaller but super clean and user-friendly for intermediates.

Water temp is sitting about average for the time of year – no major anomaly flagged, so it’s your typical winter water.

Warner Beach is an exposed break, and with this much south and ESE swell in the mix, it’ll cop a fair bit of energy. The optimum direction from the guidance is ESE, so those south swells will wrap in but might not be perfectly lined up. Still, when the wind goes glassy, it’s worth the look.

Rusty.

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