Warner Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I’ve been looking over the next sixteen days for Warner Beach. Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this forecast is a frustrating one. There’s a lot of swell on the cards, but the wind and conditions are mostly making a mess of it. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 73°, which is a nice little bonus for the body.

We start on Monday the 20th of July. The morning is a bit of a write-off with a 7 ft SSE swell, but a 20 km/h southerly cross-onshore wind is making it choppy. The combined swell energy is moderate at 1384. The afternoon cleans up a little as the wind drops to a 10 km/h onshore, but it’s still not a session to write home about. Tuesday the 21st is more of the same – a dropping 5 ft SE swell, but the wind is a cross-shore, leaving the surface bumpy. By Wednesday the 22nd morning, we finally get a small window. The swell drops to 4 ft from the SE, and the wind goes light and cross-offshore. The wave energy is weak (615), and the conditions are clean, but it’s tiny. Not a standout, but it’s surfable.

Then things get a bit wild. Friday the 24th of July morning sees a 10 ft S swell punch in, with a 1714 combined energy, but a 30 km/h SSW cross-onshore wind trashes it completely. That’s a messy, blown-out mess. The 29th of July is a real doozy. Wednesday morning has a 12 ft S swell with 4861 wave energy – that’s strong – but the 20 km/h cross-onshore wind makes it ugly. The afternoon is even bigger, with a 13 ft S swell and 5432 wave energy, and the wind is a 25 km/h cross-shore. The model says it’s too big for this break, and I agree, it’s only for experts if you’re crazy enough to try. The 31st of July Friday afternoon has a 40 km/h cross-shore wind, which is pure kite-surfing weather, not paddle surfing.

Now, for the one true standout. You have to wait until Monday the 3rd of August. The morning is a gem. We’ve got a 6 ft E swell, a 10-second period, and the wind is a perfect 5 km/h glassy offshore. The combined energy is moderate (1370), and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. With the swell direction from the east matching the optimum from the ESE, this is the best on offer. The crowd profile says "sometimes" at Warner Beach, so you might have a few others out, but it’s worth it. The 6 ft swell is a solid size, so it’s not for beginners, but experienced surfers will have a blast.

There’s a big gap of poor surf after that, with a 7 ft ENE swell on Tuesday afternoon and a 30 km/h SSW cross-onshore wind making it lumpy again. The period drops to 8 seconds, which is weak and short-period wind swell.

So, the long story short: the next couple of weeks are mostly a letdown with wind and size issues, but the glassy morning on Monday the 3rd of August is a real standout. Get on it if you can.

Rusty.

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