Warner Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I'm Rusty, and I've been staring at Warner Beach for the next 16 days, and I've got to say, it's a tough one to call. The first week is basically a bust, and the whole run is a test of patience.

The problems start immediately. From Tuesday the 8th all the way through the first week, the swell is coming from the ENE, averaging 5 to 7 feet, but the period is pitifully short—7 to 8 seconds. That's wind-driven junk, not real swell. The wind is blowing from the NE at 12 to 19 mph, and it's a cross-shore, just chopping everything up. The wave energy is moderate, hanging around the 400 to 700 range, but it’s all messy, lumpy, and unrideable. Even when the energy spikes to 1131 on Thursday the 10th afternoon, it's still a 8-foot, 8-second mess with a cross-shore breeze. The forecasts call it marginal, and that's a kind word.

We finally see a change in the swell direction around the 19th of September, shifting to the SSE and SE. The periods improve to 9 and 10 seconds, which is a bit better, but the wave heights drop to 5 to 6 feet. The wind is still cross or cross-on, so it never gets truly clean. The energy is moderate, around 600, but it's still not enough to get the heart pumping.

There's one window that stands out, but it's a tricky one. On Monday the 21st of September, the afternoon swell swings to the SSW with a period of 21 seconds. That's a very long-period groundswell, and the combined energy jumps to 1162. The wave height is only 3 feet, but that long period means it'll have some serious push. The wind is a gentle cross-shore from the NE, so it's clean. The problem is that Warner Beach is a beach break, and a 21-second swell tends to break fast and straight, making it a challenge. It's a marginal call, but it's the only window in the whole 16 days that looks like it could offer a few clean, if tricky, rides.

The next day, Tuesday the 22nd, the swell is still long-period (17 seconds) but from the south, and the wind picks up to a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, killing any hope. The rest of the run into the 23rd is just more of the same NE windswell junk.

For beginners, this is a no-go. The swells are either too short and messy, or when they get some size, like on the 14th with an 12-foot ENE swell, the wind is a strong 28 mph cross-shore. That's a kite surfer's dream, not a surfer's. The 17th of September morning has a 10-foot southerly swell, but the wind is a moderate cross-on and the forecast says it's simply too big for this break.

Honestly, it's a bleak outlook. The persistent cross-shore winds and the lack of any decent, long-period swell from the right direction just don't line up. The only bright spot is that long-period SSW swell on the 21st, but it's a long way out and a gamble for a beach break. The water temp is 71°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so the water's fine, but the waves just aren't there.

Rusty.

Read more