Warner Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Warner Beach. Let’s be straight with you: this outlook is a tough one. We've got a long, frustrating gap of days with nothing worthwhile to paddle out for a good chunk of this 16-day window.

Right now, Monday the 17th into Tuesday the 18th is just... rough. We've got a 5 ft to 6 ft swell out of the east, but it's riddled with cross-shore chop and a moderate breeze. Not worth getting wet for. That sets the tone for a pretty bleak run.

From Tuesday the 18th morning, right through to Saturday the 23rd morning, it’s a total write-off. That’s nearly five days of poor surf conditions. The blues are mixed with onshore winds and lumpy, messy seas. You’re better off staying home.

So, where’s the hope? It comes late in the game, and it’s a big one. Sunday afternoon, the 23rd of August, the ocean gets angry. We’re looking at a 12 ft swell out of the south (S) with a 14-second period. The combined energy is a massive 4743 – that’s serious power. But here’s the catch: the notes tell us it’s predicted to be too big for this break. That’s expert-only territory. If you’re an experienced charger with the right board, this is your moment. The wind is cross-on, so it won’t be glassy, but the raw grunt from that swell is undeniable. Keep in mind, with that long period, it’ll be walled up and best for a ledge or a reef if you can find one; at Warner Beach, it might just close out.

Monday the 24th keeps the big swell alive: 10 ft from the south with a 17-18 second period, giving us 4666 and 5597 energy values. Again, "too big for this break" is the verdict. It’s a powerful groundswell, but it’s likely unsurfable for most. For the brave, the tide and wind are favorable, but the size is the enemy. The wind is cross-shore, so it won't be clean.

After that, Tuesday the 25th through the end of the month, it drops back down into a messy mix of poor conditions and marginal surf. A few waist-high waves with onshore winds or lumpy chop. Not your day.

The best on offer? Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th of August. These two days are the standouts, but only for the absolute experts. The swell height is over 8 ft, so that’s a full-on commitment. If you’re not ready for that kind of power, skip it. The water is about average for this time of year, so no wetsuit concerns there.

For everyone else, it's a waiting game. The surf stays small or messy. Don't force it.

Later, Rusty.

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