Warner Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag. We’ve got a proper slow stretch to start, then a pulse of serious size late in the first week that’s going to be a handful, and then things sort of settle back down. The water temp at Warner Beach is sitting right around 70°, which is pretty much dead on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

First up, the good news is there’s nothing for the next few days that’s worth getting excited about. We’ve got a bunch of poor surf conditions through the 28th and 29th, with messy east-northeast winds and lumpy cross-chop. The swell is there, but it’s junky – short period stuff that won’t hold together. It’s a bit of a write-off, with combined energies in the moderate range (842 to 1489), but it’s just not clean enough to bother with.

Into the weekend, the 30th and 31st, we’re still looking at cross-onshore winds and choppy surf. It stays pretty poor.

Now, the first real silver lining. On Tuesday, September 1st, we get a break in the wind. The morning shows a cross-offshore breeze at 12 mph, and the surf is in that waist-high, 4ft range. It’s a morning session if you’re keen on small, clean waves. The energy is weak (290), but it’s clean. It’s an option, but not a standout.

The standout is Thursday, September 3rd. That afternoon is the one you circle on the calendar. The wind drops to nothing, totally glassy, and we’ve got a big 13ft swell (combined energy of 4797) coming from the northeast. That is a serious, powerful swell. The problem is, Warner Beach is just not going to handle that size. The notes say it’s predicted to be too big for the break, and they’re right. If you’re a top-tier expert, maybe there’s something in the water for you, but for most of us mortals, this is a look-don’t-touch situation. It’s a real force of nature.

After that, the swell doesn't let up for a while. September 5th is looking at a massive 21ft (combined energy of 24382) on Saturday morning, again just too much for this spot. It’s not surfable here. This is big, heavy, and dangerous. You’d want a reef, a point, or maybe a spot that can handle that kind of juice. For Warner Beach, it’s a no-go. It stays massive through the 6th, with 18ft and 15ft swells on Sunday, all flagged as too big.

It’s not until Monday, September 7th that things drop back to a more manageable, but still solid, 8ft (energy around 1796). It’s cleaner, but the wind is still cross-on, so it’s not perfect. The energy is moderate, and you’d be paddling into some sets.

By Tuesday, September 8th, it’s dropping out quickly. We’re back to 3ft on Tuesday morning, with the swell dropping to 3ft by the afternoon. The energy’s weak (601 and 326) and it’s back to marginal conditions.

The final stretch from September 9th through the 10th is a fade-out. Light rain and small, short-period swells that won’t offer much. It’s a quiet end to the window.

So, there you have it. A slow start, one hell of a big wave event that’s too big for this break, and then a return to small, choppy conditions. The best clean surf on offer, if you can handle the size, is that 13ft glassy afternoon on September 3rd, but that’s only for experts. For the rest of us, Tuesday morning’s 4ft clean wave might be the pick of a pretty average bunch.

Rusty.

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