The Spot Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, it’s Rusty here, and we’ve got a pretty patchy run ahead for The Spot. The next 16 days are a real mixed bag – some moments of promise, but plenty of frustration too. Let’s break it down.

The water’s sitting at about 71°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We start off with a bit of a flat spell. The first few days, from Saturday the 8th through to Sunday the 9th, are tiny and onshore, with weak, messy waves. Not worth paddling out for. On Monday the 10th, things get interesting, but it’s a bit of a wild one. A solid 10ft southerly swell shows up, wind is howling from the south at 20 mph, and the combined swell energy is a massive 1412 (strong to very strong). The period is short, around 9 seconds, so it’s a bit of a lumpy, stormy affair. The afternoon sees a shift to offshore wind, but the swell direction goes south-southeast, and the period drops to 8 seconds. It’s big, it’s powerful, but it’s raw. This is expert territory only – over 8ft and short period, it’ll be a handful. Not for the faint-hearted.

Tuesday the 11th is still solid, with 7ft swell in the morning, but still short period (8 seconds) and fresh offshore winds. The combined energy is moderate at 773. The afternoon drops to 4ft, but the period stretches out to 14 seconds, giving it some real grunt. Manageable for intermediates, but still a bit of a challenge.

Now, Wednesday the 12th brings a shift. Swell from the east-southeast, 8ft, but the period is 9 seconds. The wind is light and cross-shore, so there’s some chop. The energy is strong (2178 in the morning, 1157 in the afternoon). It’s surfable, but not clean.

The standout window is Thursday the 13th morning. The swell drops to 6ft from the east-southeast, with a 9-second period, and the wind goes glassy – light northeast at 3 mph. The combined energy is moderate at 559, and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the pick of the whole run. Clean, glassy waves, around head-high, with a bit of power. The Spot is a beach and reef setup, so with that period (9 seconds), it should be decent. The crowds are possible here, so get in early. This is the best on offer.

After that, it’s a long, frustrating gap. From Thursday afternoon the 13th right through to Saturday the 16th, the wind goes onshore from the northeast, blowing out any swell. The 16th has a tiny 2ft easterly swell, but the wind is offshore – just not enough size to bother.

Sunday the 17th morning, a small 4ft easterly swell with glassy wind. The energy is weak (178), and it’s described as “surfable but very ordinary.” Better than nothing, but a last resort.

Then from Monday the 18th onwards, it’s a desert. The swell drops to nothing, the wind is howling onshore from the northeast, and the combined energy is in the double digits – weak. The last few days of the forecast period are flat and blown out. There’s no more surf to speak of until we’re out of this window.

So, to sum it up: Thursday the 13th morning is your one and only real chance for clean, fun waves. Everything else is either too big and messy, too small, or blown out. It’s a tough run, but that one morning will be worth it if you can get out there.

Rusty.

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