Mbotyi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for Mbotyi over the next couple of weeks.

The forecast is a bit of a slow burner. The next few days are pretty messy with onshore wind and weak, short-period swell, so not much to get excited about. It’s not until the middle of next week that things start to clean up. The standout window looks to be Monday the 20th, with some serious size and clean conditions on offer, though you’ll want to be an experienced surfer for that. After a bit of a lull, the very end of the period looks promising again.

Right now, through Saturday and Sunday, it’s small and ugly. Swell is only 1ft to 2ft with weak energy, and wind is either onshore or cross-shore. Not worth paddling out.

Monday the 13th sees a bump in size to 4ft – 6ft from the ESE, but the period is short, and wind is still messy. The energy is moderate. It’s marginal.

Then we get a taste of what’s possible. Tuesday morning the 14th and Wednesday morning the 15th both offer glassy conditions at Mbotyi. Swell is 5ft – 5ft from the ESE and E with a solid period. The water temp is about average for this time of year. This is clean, fun, intermediate-friendly surf. This is the good stuff before the wind turns.

Thursday the 16th fades a bit, and then Friday the 17th gets blown out with strong cross-shore wind of 15-18 mph.

Now, here’s the big one. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th see a jump in size from the S and SSE, hitting 6ft to 8ft. The period goes long, and combined energy is strong to very strong. But wind is cross-shore and moderate, so it’s lumpy. This is more for the experienced crew.

The real highlight is Monday the 20th of July. The morning session is the pick of the trip. Swell is 7ft from the ENE with a moderate period, and we get cross-offshore wind from the SW (6 mph). The data says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” with strong combined energy. This is a serious, powerful wave. It’s going to be big and clean, but over 6ft, so leave the beginner boards on the beach. The afternoon gets a bit bumpy with the wind turning cross-shore.

After that, the swell hangs around but gets wind-affected and drops off through Tuesday and Wednesday the 22nd.

Then, on Saturday the 25th of July, we get another glassy morning. Swell is back to a manageable 4ft from the E with a good period, light winds, and clean conditions. A great day for a long session.

A quick note on the 24th: The swell is predicted to be a huge 10ft from the ENE. For Mbotyi, that’s too big. The forecast agrees, saying it’s too big for this break. Give that a miss.

So, to wrap it up: you can have a great Tuesday and Wednesday morning next week (14th and 15th) for clean, medium-size surf. But if you want the stand-out, most powerful session, get on the Monday the 20th morning. And for a clean, cruisy end to the week, Saturday the 25th morning is your ticket.

Stay stoked.

Rusty.

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