Mbotyi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got coming down the line for Mbotyi. It’s a bit of a slow starter, and we’re going to have to be patient before we see any real action.

Right off the bat, there’s nothing happening for the first stretch. Wednesday the 26th and Thursday the 27th are a total write-off – we’re looking at flat, poor conditions with cross-onshore winds making a mess. Don’t even bother paddling out. You’ll be waiting until Friday the 28th to see something pop, but even then, it’s only marginal.

Friday morning brings in a 2.5m (8ft) swell from the ENE at a short 9 seconds. The wave energy is strong (1912), but with a cross-shore breeze and that short period, it’s going to be lumpy. This one’s for the intermediates, but only if you’re desperate for a paddle. The afternoon drops to 1.9m (6ft) and doesn't get any cleaner. Saturday follows the same script: lumpy cross-chop from the ENE. By Sunday the 30th, a fresh cross-shore wind from the SSW kicks up at 30 km/h (19 mph), making it choppy and poor. Honestly, the first week is a big fat dud.

We do see a slight glimmer on Monday the 31st with a small 0.9m (3ft) swell and light onshore winds from the SE, but the energy is weak (297) and there's barely a bump. Tuesday the 1st of September offers a 1.4m (5ft) ENE swell with a light cross-onshore breeze, but still only marginal. The energy is moderate (543), but don't expect much.

Then there’s a gap of several days with absolutely nothing worth mentioning until we get into the next week.

Okay, now here’s where it gets interesting, but you have to know what you’re doing. On Saturday the 5th of September, a monster 3.5m (12ft) SSE groundswell is forecast. The combined swell energy is pumping at 3816. The wind is light and cross-onshore in the morning, but this swell is too big for this break. This is for experienced surfers and experts only. It’s going to be a heavy, powerful set. Sunday the 6th is even bigger, with a 4.5m (15ft) swell from the S at a very long 15 seconds and a massive 9039 energy reading. Again, that’s expert territory, and the NE wind is fresh at 35 km/h (22 mph), making it lumpy and challenging. Monday the 7th keeps the 3.5m (12ft) SSE swell going, with a light onshore wind from the SE in the morning. The water temp anomaly is average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

For my pick of the window? Honestly, there isn’t a classic, clean day for the average surfer. The standout is for the big-wave chargers: Saturday the 5th of September and Sunday the 6th at Mbotyi. These are the only true standouts for size and power, but only the experts should even think about it. The swell direction from the SSE is a match for the optimum, but the size (over 2.5m / 8ft) makes it a dangerous beast.

After that, the surf drops off again into the second week, with smaller, weaker swells and inconsistent conditions. It’s a tough forecast, gang. Keep your eye on the long-range for those big pulses, but be smart out there.

Rusty, signing off.

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