Mbotyi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what Mbotyi’s got cookin’ over the next couple weeks. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a mixed bag, and you’ll need to pick your moments. The first few days are touch-and-go, but there’s a clear window that’s worth setting the alarm for.

Kicking off on Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th? Pretty average. Swell’s around 5 ft to 8 ft from the east, but the wind is all cross or cross-shore, and the water’s got a bit of chop. Not the kind of morning you race down for. Energy’s moderate (672 to 1686), but the scores are low.

Then comes Thursday the 16th of July. That’s the one. In the morning we’ve got clean, glassy conditions – hardly a breath of wind. Swell is 5 ft from the east at 11 seconds – that’s a groundswell right in the wheelhouse for Mbotyi. Energy’s moderate (505) and the forecast says “very good surf conditions.” This is your window. The water temp is sitting at 70°, which is pretty normal for this time of year – no surprises there. Crowds can be a thing here (sometimes), but on a Thursday morning you might get lucky.

Friday the 17th drops off – smaller, cross winds, only 4 ft or less. Not worth the drive. Saturday the 18th sees a shift: a new southerly swell fills in, 5 ft in the morning, period 13 seconds – that’s got some punch (energy 1150). But the wind is NE 9 mph, cross-shore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy. Still, a solid intermediate option. Sunday the 19th is similar but with a cross-onshore wind – 6 ft at 12 seconds, energy 1048 – again, rideable but not glossy.

Then from Monday the 20th onward, things get pretty slim. The 20th and 21st are poor – tiny swell and strong cross winds. The 22nd and 23rd? Small 2 ft to 3 ft, mostly cross or cross-onshore, not much to write home about. There’s a flicker on Friday the 24th of July in the afternoon – glassy calm, and a long-period 2 ft southerly swell at 16 seconds (energy 270). That’s a long period groundswell, so it’ll be clean but small – perfect for a longboard or a fun little session if you’re not expecting size.

After that, the 25th and 26th are messy – windy and cross-shore, with energy dropping into the weak zone. The 27th and 28th? More cross winds, a short-period 7 ft NE blast on the 28th morning (energy 874) but only 8 seconds – that’s gonna be lumpy and probably too much for beginners. Not recommended.

So bottom line: Thursday the 16th morning is your best bet – glassy, east swell, clean. Saturday the 18th morning is a decent secondary if you don’t mind a bit of chop. Everything else is a waiting game. Keep an eye on the long-range – things might change, but right now it’s mostly small and windy.

– Rusty

Read more