Mbotyi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty. I’ve had a look at the next sixteen days, and it’s a slow start, but there’s a real beauty hiding in the second week if you’ve got the patience. The first week is mostly a dud, but that’s how it goes sometimes.

The action starts Thursday, July 9th, but it’s a complete washout. We’re looking at ankle-slapping 0.7ft easterly slop with a short period of 9-10 seconds, and the wind is a messy cross-shore or cross-onshore all day. The water’s at 70°, which is dead average for this time of year. Combined swell energy is a weak 12-13, so there’s just nothing to ride. Friday and Saturday, July 10th and 11th, aren’t any better. The swell nudges up to 1ft from the east-northeast, but the period drops to 8 seconds, and the energy is still pathetic (12-27). Saturday afternoon does go glassy, but it’s still too small to bother with.

Sunday, July 12th, things start to twitch. The morning brings a glassy 3ft swell from the east-northeast, but the period is a shocking 5 seconds, so it’s weak and wonky. Energy climbs to 85, but it’s still ordinary. The afternoon gets messy with a cross-onshore wind. Monday, July 13th, sees the swell jump to 6ft from the east with a 7-second period, and energy hits 538 (moderate), but the wind is a light cross-shore. It’s marginal, not a standout.

The real standout is Wednesday, July 15th. This is the one. Both morning and afternoon we get glassy conditions with a 5-6ft eastern swell, period climbing to 10 seconds, and combined energy a solid 548-589. That’s good, clean, long-period groundswell. The offshore wind is from the south and southeast, so it’s off the land. Mbotyi is exposed to the east, and the optimum swell direction is east, so this is a perfect match. The water’s still 70° and average. This is the best wave of the window. Thursday, July 16th, follows up with a glassy morning, 5ft east swell at 10 seconds, energy 484 – still very good, but the afternoon gets a bit lumpy.

After that, it falls apart. Friday, July 17th, brings a strong cross-shore wind and a dropping swell. Saturday, July 18th, has a glassy afternoon with 3ft east swell at 10 seconds (energy 306), which is alright but small. Sunday, July 19th, has a morning of 4ft from the east-northeast, but the wind is tricky, and the afternoon gets trashed by a 15 mph cross-shore. The period jumps to 13 seconds on the afternoon, but it’s too messy.

The very end of the window, around July 23rd and 24th, sees a big spike in energy. July 23rd morning has a 7ft east-northeast swell at 8 seconds, with energy 896 (strong) but the wind is a moderate cross-shore. That’s getting big and a bit lumpy. July 24th afternoon cranks up to 8ft from the east-northeast, period 8 seconds, and energy 1148 (very strong). That’s expert-only territory, and with a cross-shore wind, it’s going to be a washing machine. It’s a big, powerful, messy swell, not a clean stand-out.

So, the clear winner is Wednesday, July 15th. The 6ft, 10-second east swell with glassy conditions and that solid energy is the best on offer. It’s a fairly consistent spot, and Mbotyi can handle that direction well. Crowds are described as “sometimes,” so you might have a few others around, but on a Wednesday, it’ll be quiet. The rest of the week is either tiny, windy, or too big and messy. Thursday, July 16th morning is a good backup.

Rusty.

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