Mbotyi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a slow start. The first real surf worth paddling out for kicks off this Saturday morning, the 18th of July. Mbotyi is the spot, and it’s looking pretty promising to begin with. The water’s sitting at 69°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Saturday morning brings in a clean 2 ft S swell, with a solid 13-second period. The wind is glassy, dead calm from the SSE. It’s not huge, but with that long period groundswell, those waves will have some push. The combined energy is moderate at 296, so it’s not a powerhouse, but it’s a lovely session for intermediates. As the day rolls into the afternoon, the swell bumps up to 4 ft from the SW, still glassy, and the energy jumps to 608 – that’s a noticeable step up. This is a very good window.

Sunday the 19th is the real standout of this first week. The morning is pure gold: 4 ft of SSE swell, 13 seconds, glassy conditions, and the combined energy is pumping at 1088. That’s strong, clean, and well-shaped. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers – the kind of morning you call in sick for. The water is still glassy, and the wind is light from the east. The afternoon sees the energy drop a little to 840, and the wind swings cross-on, so the morning is the clear winner.

Monday the 20th is a bit of a letdown. The swell is a touch bigger at 6 ft from the SE, but the wind is cross-shore, and the conditions are marginal. The energy is still high at 939, but the wind messes it up. Tuesday the 21st starts clean again with 4 ft SE swell and glassy conditions – a solid window for a quick session – but the afternoon turns ugly with a 12 mph NE cross-wind.

From Wednesday the 22nd through to the end of the month, we hit a proper dry spell. The swell drops, the wind is messy, and the energy values fall into the weak to low range. Wednesday the 22nd has 3 ft at 278 energy, but it’s cross-shore and poor. By Thursday the 23rd, we’re down to 2 ft and 70 energy. It’s a long, flat, choppy run. There’s a gap of about nine days where you’re better off doing something else.

Then, just when you think it’s all over, the 31st of July (Friday) lights up like a bomb. This is the big one. We’re looking at a 8 ft S swell with a 10-second period. The combined energy is a massive 2376 – that’s very strong wave energy. The morning is clean, cross-off wind, and the afternoon is dead flat calm and glassy. This is excellent for experienced surfers only. If you’re a beginner, stay on the beach. This is a big, powerful, S swell hitting an exposed spot. The period is 10 seconds, so it’s a good mix of power and frequency. For the experts, this is the session of the forecast.

Saturday the 1st of August still has a big 8 ft SSE swell, but the wind is up to 16 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy and messy. The energy is still high at 1230, but the wind ruins it. Sunday the 2nd of August has a 10 ft ENE swell, which is way too big for this break, and the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore. Forget it.

So, to wrap it up: the best on offer is undeniable Sunday the 19th of July for the clean, strong, glassy groundswell. And for the brave, the 31st of July is a heavy, powerful, expert-only swell. Get on it.

Rusty.

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