Mbotyi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the cards for Mbotyi.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start but the second half of this 16-day run is where the magic looks like it could happen. There’s a pretty decent gap of poor conditions from Saturday afternoon all the way through to Tuesday with rain and messy winds, so don’t bother paddling out then. But patience is going to pay off.

Saturday morning is the first real window. It’s glassy, with a clean 5ft swell from the SSE (9 seconds). The combined energy is moderate at 400, and with that light glassy look, it’ll be a nice way to ease in. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and fun for intermediates.

Then we hit a rough patch. Sunday through Tuesday sees mostly poor surf with wind and rain. The swell jumps to 7ft on Tuesday but it’s onshore with light rain and a period of only 8 seconds – messy and not worth your time. Energy is moderate (735) but the quality is gone.

Things clean up again Wednesday morning (29 July). A cross-offshore breeze from the WSW, 4ft from the SE at 8 seconds. It’s clean, though modest. Combined energy at 286, so nothing too powerful, but rideable.

Thursday morning (30 July) is a standout. Glassy as it gets – no wind. You’ve got 6ft from the ESE at 9 seconds, energy at 497. That’s a solid moderate push. This is the first real sweet spot for a clean, cruisy session.

Now here’s the one I’d circle on the calendar. Friday morning (31 July): A clean cross-offshore breeze from the NNE, 7ft of groundswell from the SE at 10 seconds. Combined energy is 971 – that’s strong. The swell is pushing but the wind keeps the face clean. This is the best of the first week. It’s solid intermediate territory, maybe a little much for beginners since it’s over 5ft.

Saturday (1 August) gets bigger – 8ft from the ESE at 11 seconds – but the NE wind is cross and fresh. Energy is very strong (1663), but the quality is marginal. This is big, but the wind will chop it up. For experienced surfers only.

Sunday (2 August) is the real highlight of the whole forecast. Glassy both morning and afternoon. 8ft from the ESE at a very long 12 seconds. Energy is 1549 – strong to very strong. This is excellent, powerful groundswell, glassy perfection. For experienced surfers only at that size. This will be absolutely pumping, especially if you can get it at the right tide. The period is long, so this swell will hold its shape well and offer some proper open-face waves. Crowds are possible at Mbotyi, so get there early.

After that, the swell eases a bit through the week. Monday (3 August) is still 7ft at 11 seconds but with crosswind. Tuesday (4 August) morning is glassy again, 6ft from the ESE at 11 seconds, energy 839 – very good, clean, and more manageable. That’s a great option for intermediates.

The final few days drop off into smaller, cleaner conditions. Friday (7 August) morning is glassy, 4ft from the E at 10 seconds, energy 423. A nice small-wave glass-off to finish the run.

So to sum it up: the standout is Sunday 2 August – big, clean, powerful groundswell, glassy, and absolutely firing for those who can handle it. Friday 31 July and Tuesday 4 August mornings are also strong clean options. The rest is a mix of small clean windows or messy onshore stuff. Don’t waste your time in that middle gap – sit tight for the big glassy day.

Water temps are about average for the time of year at Mbotyi. No major anomaly to report, so no surprises there.

Stay keen, stay patient.

– Rusty

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