Mbotyi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. We've got a bit of a slow start for Mbotyi, but there's some real promise later on. The water's sitting around 70°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a bit of a write-off, honestly. Wednesday the 12th kicks off with a 6ft easterly swell, but it's cross-on from an ENE breeze at 9 mph, leaving it choppy and messy. The wave energy is moderate (1190), but the conditions just aren't there. Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th are a right-off, with small, short-period swell and cross-shore winds that don't do us any favours. We're looking at a few days of nothing much to get excited about.

Saturday the 15th starts to show a pulse, with a 5ft swell from the east-northeast and a 10-second period, but it's still cross-shore and the energy is moderate (961). It's marginal. Sunday the 16th morning is a bit better, with a 6ft ENE swell, an 11-second period, and a gentle cross-shore breeze. The energy is getting up there (1201), but it's still a bit lumpy. That's the pick of the first week, but it's far from perfect.

Then we hit a proper lull from Monday the 17th right through to Wednesday the 20th – tiny, weak swell and poor conditions. The surf is basically flat.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Friday the 21st of August comes in with a bit of a weird one. The morning is a complete mess – a 7ft northeast swell with a short period and a fresh 19 mph cross-shore wind, making it a lumpy, choppy mess. But then the afternoon shifts. The wind swings to a light north-northeasterly (6 mph) and goes cross-offshore, cleaning it right up. The swell drops to 3ft, but it's from the south with a 9-second period, and the energy is light (267). The forecast says "expect good surf conditions." That's a standout moment.

Saturday the 22nd has the wind swinging hard to a strong 25 mph westerly, which is cross-offshore and clean, but the swell is small and short – 5ft and 4ft from the south, with periods of 8 and 7 seconds. The energy is light (308 and 210). It's clean but the swell is weak and blown out by the wind strength. Not great for paddling.

After that, things drop off again. Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th are tiny and poor. Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th see a bit of a lift with 7ft and 7ft swells from the northeast and east-northeast, but the winds are cross-shore and the conditions are only marginal. The energy is moderate (629 and 869), but it's not clean. The best bet from that late window is Wednesday the 26th afternoon, with a 6ft ENE swell, an 8-second period, and a light cross-shore wind, giving you a bit of shape and energy (703).

So, if you're after the best of the bunch, it's that Friday the 21st afternoon. The clean cross-offshore wind and a small, rideable south swell will be the most fun you'll have. The Saturday is clean but the swell is too weak and short. The later part of the week is bigger but messy. Mbotyi is fairly consistent, so it's not a total blank, but you've got to time it right.

Rusty.

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