Mbotyi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s in store for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, Wednesday morning the 15th has some chest-high swell rolling in at Mbotyi, around 5 ft out of the east, but that cross-shore south-westerly is putting a bit of chop on it. The water’s sitting at a comfortable 70°, which is right where it should be for this time of year—no surprises there. The combined swell energy is moderate (522), so there’s a bit of push, but the conditions are just marginal. Later that day, the wind swings more onshore and it gets even messier, so don’t rush out.

Thursday the 16th is where it starts to get glassy. Morning and afternoon both have that silky, glassy surface with the wind barely a whisper out of the SE and ESE. Swell drops a little to 5 ft and 4 ft, still east with a 10-second period. This is the cleanest window early on, and the best bet for a decent paddle. The wave energy is moderate (424 and 338). It’s not pumping, but it’s clean and rideable.

Friday the 17th, the swell fades. Morning’s around 4 ft, but the wind is a light cross-onshore, and by the afternoon it’s 3 ft with glassy conditions. Very ordinary, but you could still get a few if you’re keen.

Saturday the 18th, the swell direction shifts to the south and the period jumps to 13 seconds—proper groundswell. The morning is small, only 2 ft, but the afternoon sees a jump to 6 ft with a combined energy of 1242, which is strong. However, the wind picks up to 12 mph from the NE, creating a cross-chop. That’s a lot of water moving around, and with the longer period, Mbotyi being a beach break might have those waves pitching straight. It’s more interesting for the experienced crew, but the wind is messy.

Sunday the 19th has a similar size, 6 ft in the morning from the SSE, but the wind is light cross-onshore, so it’s still a bit bumpy. The energy is high (905), but the conditions aren’t real clean.

Monday the 20th morning is the standout from the first week. Glassy conditions, 4 ft from the SSE, 10-second period, with moderate energy (367). That’s clean, fun-sized surf. The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-shore, so hit it early.

After that, the swell drops through the 21st and 22nd, with some small, clean, glassy mornings around 3 ft, but very marginal. The 23rd and 24th are poor, with under 3 ft and messy wind—don’t bother.

Saturday the 25th has a pulse of swell out of the NE, 6 ft, but with a short period of 7 seconds and a cross-shore wind. The combined energy is 730, so there’s some power, but it’s not going to be clean. Sunday the 26th is a write-off: strong cross-shore wind and poor conditions.

The 27th and 28th stay poor, with weak, short-period swell and onshore winds. The 29th and 30th are even worse, with rain and choppy conditions. Honestly, from the 23rd onwards, it’s a long run of flat or poor surf.

The one true standout is Thursday the 16th—both sessions are glassy, clean, and the swell is big enough to have fun on. Monday the 20th morning is the next best, with glass and a solid 4 ft. After that, keep your expectations low until the next proper system rolls in.

Rusty.

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