Mbotyi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Mbotyi’s got cooking over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, the start is pretty grim – don’t even bother waxing up until Thursday. We’ve got a couple of small windows that might be worth a paddle, but overall, it’s a long, slow grind with some proper size late in the week that’s more for the experts.

The first real chance to get wet comes Thursday the 3rd. The morning is where it’s at. We’re looking at small but surfable waves around 3 ft from the ENE, but the real winner is that glassy wind. It’s dead calm, so the surface will be like a mirror. The combined energy is weak though, just a reading of 101, so don’t expect any power. It’s a gentle start and good for a log or a funboard. Water temp is sitting at 68°, which is pretty average for this time of year, so no shock to the system. Afternoon gets a bit of a cross-shore bump, so hit that morning session.

Friday the 4th is a write-off for normal surfing. A big southerly swell rolls in, pushing 12 ft, but it’s accompanied by a strong cross-onshore wind. The combined energy is massive – over 2600 in the morning and over 4400 in the afternoon – but that’s just raw, ugly power. It’s going to be a washing machine. Honestly, with that setup, it looks more interesting for kiteboarding than paddle surfing. Keep the board on the beach unless you’re a masochist.

Saturday the 5th settles down a bit, but it’s still messy. The swell drops to 7 ft from the SE with a short 9-second period, so it’ll be lumpy and weak. The wind is cross-shore, so it’s not clean. The energy is moderate (730), but conditions are just “meh.” Not worth getting excited about.

Sunday the 6th is more of the same – poor conditions with bumpy cross-shore winds and small, weak swell. Nothing to see here.

Now, here’s the one that stands out, but it’s early in the second week and comes with a caveat. Monday the 7th morning. A proper long-period groundswell from the south shows up – 7 ft at a very long 16 seconds. That’s a serious pulse, and the combined energy is a strong 2855. However, the wind is a moderate cross-shore from the NE, so it won’t be glassy. Still, for an exposed point like Mbotyi, that long-period, straight S swell can wrap in nicely and produce some solid, walled-up waves. The downside is the wind makes it a bit bumpy, and at 7 ft, it’s pushing into expert-only territory. The period is so long it might break a bit straight on the beach, but the points and reefs should love it. Crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might have a few mates out. This is your best bet for a proper session, but don’t expect perfection.

After that, the rest of the forecast is pretty bleak. From Tuesday the 8th all the way through to Thursday the 17th, it’s a mix of small, weak swell and poor cross-onshore or strong cross-shore winds. A few marginal moments pop up on the 13th and 14th with some size (7 ft to 8 ft), but the wind is a problem, and the swell period drops back to short, weak 7-9 seconds. The 14th afternoon does show a bit of cross-offshore wind which keeps things “clean,” but it’s still a messy, forgettable run. Honestly, after that Monday, you’re looking at a dry spell for over a week.

If you’re committed, hit the Thursday the 3rd morning for clean little waves, or keep your eye on Monday the 7th for that bigger, longer-period groundswell – just be ready for a bit of wind and a crowd.

Rusty.

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