Mbotyi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break this down for Mbotyi.

First off, the next 16 days are a real mixed bag, and the first week is basically a bust. There’s a run of messy, cross-shore, lumpy conditions that’ll have you lookin’ at the ocean and thinkin’ “not today.” The swell shows up, but it’s either too big, the wind’s wrong, or the direction’s off. This is one of those stretches where you’re better off cleanin’ the garage.

The first hint of somethin’ happens on the 5th of September—Saturday morning—with a 6ft SE swell, period 9 seconds, but a cross wind from the NE at 12 mph makes it a choppy mess. Not worth the paddle. The 7th Monday afternoon sees a 7ft S swell with a 15-second period, but the wind’s still cross-shore and lumpy at 19 mph. That’s expert territory at 7ft, and the wind’s ruining it.

Now, the real standout: the 15th of September, Tuesday afternoon. You’ve got an 8ft S swell, period 13 seconds, with a light NE breeze at 3 mph—that’s almost glassy, cross-shore. The combined energy is strong, at 2407, and the swell direction lines up with the optimum E exposure. This is a big, long-period groundswell, so it’ll be pushin’ through the point with power. But at 8ft, this is experts only. Crowds are “sometimes” possible, so you might get a few heads out, but it’s worth it for the clean lines.

The second standout is the 19th of September, Saturday afternoon. Another big S swell, 10ft at 13 seconds, with a moderate cross-shore wind from the SSW. The energy is massive at 5313, but the wind’s a bit more messy. Still, for experts, this could be a cracker. The water temp is about 68°F, which is normal for this time of year—nothing unusual.

The first week is a total dud, with a 5-day gap from the 4th to the 8th where there’s nothin’ worth paddlin’ for. The 9th and 10th are still poor. So, only the 15th and 19th are worth gettin’ your wetsuit for. If you’re an expert, mark those dates. The rest? Not worth it.

Rusty.

Read more