Mbotyi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Rusty here, looking at the next 16 days from September 16th onwards. There's a bit of a slow start, but we've got some proper windows if you're patient, especially for the crew who don't mind a bit of size. Here’s how it shakes out for Mbotyi.

The first few days are a write-off. Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th are messy with onshore winds and rain, the swell is lumpy and the combined energy is moderate (459) to strong (1371). Don't bother.

Friday the 18th is more of the same with cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions, despite the swell building to 8ft from the ESE with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is getting solid (2331), but the wind is blowing it out. This looks like it would be better for kite surfing than a paddle session.

Now, hold onto your board, because Saturday the 19th is where it's at. We’ve got a 8ft swell from the ESE on Saturday morning with glassy conditions and a slight air – that's as good as it gets for clean surf. The wind is light from the NE, making it glassy. The combined energy is moderate (940) but the quality is there. Saturday afternoon gets even better: the swell pushes 8ft with a 9-second period, and it's still glassy with WNW winds. This is excellent for experienced surfers – the combined energy jumps to 1829, a very strong setup. This is your standout.

Sunday the 20th is still surfable but dropping off. Morning sees 6ft from the ESE, but the wind goes cross-shore from the ENE, making it a bit bumpy. By afternoon it's fading.

Monday the 21st offers a small, clean morning session. Swell drops to 4ft from the ESE, but with glassy conditions, it’s a fun one for a longboard.

Tuesday the 22nd is flat and not worth the paddle. We then hit a gap of poor conditions until Wednesday the 23rd morning, when we get another glassy window. Swell is 6ft from the ENE with a short 7-second period, but combined energy is moderate (563). The afternoon gets blown out again.

Thursday the 24th is a write-off, with onshore wind and rain.

Standout alert for the end of the window. Friday the 25th of September is a big one, but it's for experts only. The morning brings a 10ft SE swell at 10 seconds, with offshore NNW winds – clean conditions – but the combined energy is very strong (1696). The guidance says it's too big for this break. The afternoon is still excellent for experienced surfers: 8ft SE swell with cross-offshore W winds, clean, with a combined energy of 1363. That's a proper groundswell setup.

After that, it's a run of onshore wind and chopped-out surf from the 26th through to the end of the forecast period. Swell sticks around in the 5ft to 8ft range, but the wind is consistently cross or onshore, ruining the quality.

So, to sum it up: your best bet is Saturday the 19th for the overall quality and glassy conditions. If you're an advanced surfer and want serious size, Friday the 25th of September is your target, but it's a big one.

Rusty.

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