Lucien Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty talkin’. Looking at the 16-day window for Lucien, it’s a real mixed bag. We’ve got plenty of swell pulses coming through, but the wind is gonna be a constant battle. This isn’t a straight-forward period; we’re gonna have to pick our moments.

We start off the run on Wednesday, August 19th, and frankly, it’s a write-off. We’ve got a tiny 2ft swell from the SSW with a cross-onshore breeze at 16 mph. The water’s sitting at 70°, which is about average for this time of year, but the waves are just choppy and weak (287 energy). Thursday the 20th sees more size, with the morning offering 6ft from the SSW, but the period is a snappy 8 seconds. The wind is a clean cross-offshore, which is a big positive for the shape, but that short-period swell will be a bit mushy and fat. The afternoon cleans up to a gentler cross-shore but still only 4ft.

Friday the 21st is back to the onshore mess, and Saturday the 22nd has the first real glimmer of hope. Saturday morning the wind goes light and cross-offshore from the NNW, and we get a 4ft swell from the ENE. The period is a short 7 seconds, but the clean conditions (284 energy) will make it fun on a longboard. The afternoon, however, gets destroyed by a 31 mph near-gale.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, but tricky. Sunday the 23rd morning pumps in a 10ft groundswell from the SSW with a 10-second period and a clean cross-offshore breeze. That’s a serious amount of energy (2621 energy). This is expert territory; too big for most. The shape will be there, but the power is intense. Monday the 24th keeps the goods going with a 6ft swell from the south, but the period stretches out to a very long 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. At Lucien, which is a beach and point break, that long period could make the waves a bit too straight and fast on the beach sections, but the point should handle it beautifully. The wind is a light cross-onshore, so it won’t be perfect, but it’s rideable. The energy is strong (1439 and 1025 energy).

The best on offer, the real stand-out, is the first half of Sunday the 23rd. That’s a powerful, clean 10ft SSW swell with a cross-offshore wind. If you’re an experienced surfer, that’s your session. If you’re not, you’re better off looking at Saturday morning for the clean, smaller 4ft waves.

After that, it gets frustrating. Tuesday the 25th through to the end of the run is mostly wind-affected or marginal. A few glimpses pop up, like Friday the 28th morning with a 6ft SSW swell but a choppy cross-onshore, and Saturday the 29th morning with a 3ft S swell and light cross-shore wind, but crowd levels at Lucien are listed as “sometimes,” so you won’t be alone. The very end of the window, Monday the 31st of August morning, offers an 8ft NE swell with a light cross-onshore wind, but the period is a short 7 seconds and it’s rated as marginal.

Overall, it’s a period of big promises that rarely delivers perfection. The clean conditions on the 23rd morning are the peak, but the 16 days ahead are filled with long stretches of poor surf, especially from the 25th onwards.

Rusty, signing off.

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