Lucien Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up at Lucien (beach and point). This stretch has a fairly consistent run of swell, but the wind’s gunna be a moody bugger, so we gotta pick our moments.

The forecast kicks off Tuesday, July 14th, and honestly, it’s a write-off. We’ve got a solid 7 ft to 7 ft of ESE swell, but a moderate cross-onshore breeze is chopping the surface up. The combined wave energy is moderate at best (818 to 936), and the conditions are just poor. Not worth paddling out.

Wednesday, July 15th, is where it starts to get interesting. The morning sees a clean 7 ft swell from the east with a 10-second period, and a light cross-offshore breeze from the south. The afternoon stays clean with the swell dropping to 6 ft. The energy is still moderate (913 in the morning, 668 in the arvo), but the surface is glassy. This is a solid intermediate day – waves have shape, the wind’s your friend, and the water temp is about average for this time of year. No anomalies to worry about.

Thursday, July 16th, is the standout. The morning is absolute gold: glassy conditions, an ENE breeze at just 3 mph, and a clean 5 ft easterly swell with a 10-second period. The energy is moderate (586), but the glassy surface means you’re getting smooth, peeling lines. The wind is a major positive – it’s gunna be silky. The afternoon gets a bit crossed up with a light onshore breeze, but the morning session is the one to circle. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

Friday, July 17th, is a drop-off. The swell fades to 4 ft, and the wind turns cross-shore, making it marginal. The afternoon cleans up but the wave size is down to 4 ft. Not worth the drive.

Saturday, July 18th, brings a fresh pulse from the south, but it’s messy. A 4 ft swell with a long 14-second period arrives, but the cross-onshore wind spoils it. The energy jumps to 907 in the afternoon, but the surface is choppy. The long period means the waves have push, but they’ll be breaking straight at the beach – better for the point or reef, but the wind ruins it.

Sunday, July 19th, is a tease. Morning has a light cross-onshore breeze with a 5 ft south swell (12 seconds), but it’s marginal. The afternoon cleans up with a stronger cross-offshore wind, but the swell is still just 5 ft. Could be a fun session if you’re bored, but not a standout.

Now, Monday, July 20th – this is the big call. The swell jumps to 10 ft in the morning from the SSW, with an 11-second period, and the combined energy is strong (2320). By afternoon, the swell hits 13 ft from the south, with a 13-second period and energy at 5566. This is expert territory. The wind is light, but the morning is cross-shore, and the afternoon has an onshore component. The size is massive, and the long period means it’ll be heavy and powerful. Only for the experienced crew. The setup could get interesting for kite surfers if the wind holds, but for paddle surfing, it’s a game of consequences.

Tuesday, July 21st, the swell drops to 7 ft, but the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s messy and marginal. The energy is still strong (1230), but the surface is chopped. Not a great day.

The rest of the forecast from July 22nd to the 29th is pretty grim. The swell stays small (2 ft to 5 ft), and the wind is mostly cross-onshore or choppy. There’s a long-period 15-second swell on the 22nd morning, but it’s only 3 ft and the wind is against it. The 23rd afternoon has a 4 ft swell with a 19 mph cross-offshore, but that’s serious wind. The 26th has a strong breeze, but the swell is only 3 ft. It’s a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions, with a gap of several days where I wouldn’t bother.

The only real standout is Thursday morning, July 16th, for the glassy conditions and clean 5 ft easterly swell. The second standout is Wednesday, July 15th, for the clean, cross-offshore lines. The big Monday, July 20th, is for experts only – massive size, but the wind is a concern.

Keep your eyes peeled – forecasts can change, but for now, those are your windows.
Rusty.

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