Surf Forecasts:
Lucien surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 21 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period, SSW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 23 Aug, 5PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 15s period, S swell with 10,804 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 17 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 10s period with ENE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lucien this week:
The surf forecast for Lucien over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 17) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 1.6m and 10s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 10s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Lucien in the next 16 days are 5.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 5PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 20) at 2AM.
| Wave Type | Time (SAST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Mon 17th Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 2AM (Fri 21st Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 5PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lucien over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right, grab a coffee, 'cause we've got one break on the radar for this 16-day window, and it's Lucien, a beach and point set-up that's exposed to a fair bit of action.
The early days are a bit of a write-off, to be honest. From August 16th through to most of August 22nd, we're looking at a lot of lumpy, cross-onshore wind and choppy conditions. The swell is all over the shop, but the wind is just ruining it. There's a combined energy of 562 on the Sunday, but it's a messy one, so not worth paddling out for.
Now, here's where it gets interesting. The real story starts on the 23rd of August. Sunday afternoon we've got a solid 16 ft swell from the S with a very long 15-second period – this is proper groundswell energy, with a combined energy reading of 10804, so you're talking serious power. The wind is a strong cross-offshore, so it'll be clean but this is huge. This is strictly for experienced surfers only. For a point break, that long period will wrap in nicely, but at a beach break, it'll be closing out like a freight train.
That energy carries into Monday the 24th, with the swell staying over 12 ft and the period hanging around 15 to 17 seconds. The winds on Monday morning look much better – a light cross-on from the ESE, which will keep things manageable. The combined energy is still massive at 7715. This is the standout window if you've got the skills and the board for it. The water temp is sitting around a normal 70°F, so no surprises there.
The rest of the week sees the swell drop down into the 5 ft to 7 ft range, but by then the wind swings back onshore and messy, so it's back to the poor surf conditions. There's a little flash on the 31st of August, Monday morning – glassy conditions with a light rain and a 6 ft SSW swell (combined energy of 973). The winds are dead calm, so if you're looking for something clean after the big stuff, that could be a sneaky good session, but it's a long way off.
Overall, you've got a massive, powerful window from the 23rd to the 25th. If you're an expert and you've got a point break in mind, that's the call. For everyone else, the glassy window on the 31st is your best bet for something manageable and clean.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Warm (max 22°C on Mon afternoon, min 16°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NE on Sun afternoon, calm by Tue night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 27°C on Sat morning, min 17°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Wed night, calm by Thu night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | ENE 11 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 9 | ENE 8 | SSW 15 | SSW 7 | S 7 | SSW 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | ENE 7 | SSW 11 | SSW 7 | SSW 8 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
467 | 807 | 778 | 731 | 369 | 251 | 202 | 159 | 120 | 275 | 125 | 225 | 184 | 1365 | 646 | 273 | 192 | 394 | 487 | 365 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 6:02PM1.75m | 6:09AM1.56m | 6:31PM1.62m | 6:37AM1.44m | 6:59PM1.48m | 7:05AM1.30m | 7:27PM1.32m | 7:35AM1.16m | 8:04PM1.16m | 8:23AM1.01m | 9:37PM1.02m | 12:15PM0.95m | 00:56AM1.07m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:09AM0.18m | 12:13PM0.14m | 00:38AM0.29m | 12:41PM0.28m | 1:07AM0.42m | 1:10PM0.43m | 1:40AM0.56m | 1:43PM0.59m | 2:28AM0.69m | 2:39PM0.74m | 4:59AM0.78m | 6:13PM0.79m | ||||||||
— | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | |
5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 20 | 17 | 21 | 22 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 27 | 21 | 19 |
Feels °C | 16 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 23 | 15 | 17 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | ENE 11 | E 11 | ENE 10 | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 9 | SSW 14 | E 7 | E 8 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 11 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | S 8 |
467 | 807 | 584 | 533 | 369 | 251 | 202 | 159 | 120 | 104 | 109 | 49 | 137 | 1365 | 646 | 273 | 133 | 174 | 69 | 206 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 11 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 13 | E 8 | E 8 | ENE 8 | E 8 | — | — | — | NE 7 |
9 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 120 | 26 | 125 | 102 | 33 | 21 | 22 | 12 | — | — | — | 17 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | S 13 | SW 12 | S 10 | — | SW 18 | SW 9 | SSW 8 | — | — | — | NE 7 | NE 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 8 |
6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | 12 | 3 | 7 | — | — | — | 8 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 5 | NNE 5 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | SSW 3 | SSW 4 | S 4 | — | — | ENE 8 | SSW 5 | SSW 7 | S 7 | — | — | NE 4 | ENE 7 | SSW 11 | SSW 7 | SSW 8 |
80 | 92 | 778 | 731 | 3 | 25 | 12 | — | — | 275 | 86 | 225 | 184 | — | — | 47 | 192 | 394 | 487 | 365 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 100 | 104 | 100 | 100 | 49 | 136 | 165 | 0 | 100 | 100 | 209 | 304 | 136 | 0 | 804 | 771 | 117 | 101 | 766 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Durban/KwaZulu-Natal South Coast | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in South Africa | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Lucien Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Lucien provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lucien can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lucien surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lucien) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lucien may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Lucien is 13 km (8 miles) from Port Shepstone. If you plan a holiday in Durban/KwaZulu-Natal South Coast, look for hotels and other accommodation in Port Shepstone. Port Shepstone has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











