Surf Forecasts:
Lucien surf forecast from 13 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 15 Sep, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 10s period, E swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 20 Sep, 2AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 10s period, ESE swell with 4,859 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 15 Sep, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 10s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lucien this week:
The surf forecast for Lucien over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Lucien in the next 16 days are 5.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 20) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 5PM.
| Wave Type | Time (SAST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Tue 15th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Tue 15th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Sun 20th Sep) | 16ft (5.0m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lucien over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty checking in with a look at Lucien over the next couple of weeks.
Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough run for Lucien. For the first week and a half, it’s pretty much a write-off. The winds are howling out of the NE, smashing up any swell that tries to show up. You’re looking at a lot of blown-out, choppy mess with poor conditions. The water temp is sitting right around average for this time of year, so nothing wild there.
There’s a tiny glimmer on Tuesday the 15th with some chest-high (8ft) swell from the east, but even then, the wind is just enough to put a ripple on it, and the tide is questionable. It’s not worth paddling out for. The energy is moderate at best (1041), so you’re not missing much.
The whole first week is a no-go, with strong wind and lumps. The real story starts to look interesting towards the end of the run. Check out Thursday, September 25th. We’ve got a proper south-southeast groundswell pushing through at overhead+ (10ft) with a 9-second period, and more importantly, the wind finally swings around to a moderate SSW cross-offshore, cleaning it right up. That’s the standout. The energy is strong (1626), and it’s the only time the wind is working with the swell direction from the south, which is what Lucien’s optimum is. This one’s for the experienced crew though – at 10ft, it’s out of the beginner zone. Crowds might be a factor here, as it’s a spot that can get a few heads when it’s on.
Then, if you can hold out, the last day on the chart, Sunday, September 27th, offers something real special. The swell drops a little to a solid head-high (5ft), but the period stretches out to a very long 16 seconds, meaning those sets are gonna have some proper power and shape. The magic is the wind: it goes absolutely glassy (NNW, 3 mph). The energy is strong (1701). However, keep in mind that a long-period swell like this can get a little straight at a beach break like Lucien, but the glassy conditions might just make it perfect. That’s the one to circle on the calendar.
For the rest, a lot of junky cross-onshore wind and not much worth getting wet for. Expect big gaps of a week or more where it’s just not worth it.
Stay patient.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Warm (max 23°C on Mon morning, min 20°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the NE on Mon afternoon, calm by Tue morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Fri afternoon. Warm (max 22°C on Wed afternoon, min 16°C on Fri afternoon). Winds increasing (calm on Tue night, strong winds from the SW by Thu morning). | ||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 8 | E 6 | SSW 17 | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | S 9 | S 8 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SE 9 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 89 | 81 | 286 | 657 | 1690 | 2949 | 1883 | 1013 | 739 | 602 | 584 | 468 | 384 | 332 | 1810 | 732 | 645 | 615 | 937 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 4:41AM1.74m | 4:58PM1.85m | 5:08AM1.68m | 5:24PM1.75m | 5:34AM1.59m | 5:48PM1.63m | 5:58AM1.48m | 6:12PM1.48m | 6:22AM1.34m | 6:36PM1.32m | 6:47AM1.19m | 7:02PM1.16m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:38PM0.00m | 10:43AM-0.04m | 11:05PM0.04m | 11:10AM0.03m | 11:31PM0.12m | 11:36AM0.14m | 11:56PM0.23m | 12:01PM0.27m | 00:21AM0.36m | 12:26PM0.42m | 00:48AM0.51m | 12:53PM0.58m | 1:23AM0.66m | ||||||
 |  |  |  | |  |  | | |  | | | |  |  |  |  | |  | |
 | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — |
 | 5:47 | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — |
mm | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 33 |
Temp °C | 20 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
Feels °C | 19 | 23 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 23 | 23 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 8 | E 6 | SE 7 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 16 | ENE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | SSE 9 | E 9 | SE 9 |
| kJ | 89 | 53 | 107 | 128 | 82 | 80 | 1883 | 1013 | 739 | 602 | 584 | 468 | 384 | 332 | 308 | 161 | 645 | 108 | 937 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | SSE 8 | E 9 | S 9 | S 9 | — | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SW 16 | SSW 12 | SSW 14 | — | SSW 13 | E 10 | SSW 11 | ENE 9 |
| kJ | 78 | 66 | 81 | 15 | 7 | — | 32 | 28 | 25 | 21 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 19 | — | 16 | 120 | 13 | 138 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 11 | E 9 | SSW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 17 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SSW 15 | — | — | — | SSW 12 | SSW 15 | SSW 16 |
| kJ | 39 | 81 | 286 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 8 | 66 | 22 | — | — | — | 14 | 23 | 51 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 5 | E 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 9 | NE 9 | — | — | — | — | SSW 5 | SSW 5 | SSW 7 | S 9 | S 8 | — | SSE 9 | E 9 |
| kJ | 26 | 80 | 77 | 657 | 1690 | 2949 | 1651 | — | — | — | — | 83 | 9 | 167 | 1810 | 732 | — | 615 | 240 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 599 | 455 | 455 | 117 | 100 | 142 | 0 | 101 | 229 | 0 | 256 | 229 | 49 | 183 | 881 | 818 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Durban/KwaZulu-Natal South Coast | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in South Africa | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Lucien Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Lucien provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lucien can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lucien surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lucien) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lucien may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Lucien is 13 km (8 miles) from Port Shepstone. If you plan a holiday in Durban/KwaZulu-Natal South Coast, look for hotels and other accommodation in Port Shepstone. Port Shepstone has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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