Lucien Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

The coming days are looking pretty ugly for the most part, with a lot of wind and chop to deal with. We have a very narrow window of hope on the 13th, then a long stretch of poor conditions before things get interesting again in the second week. The water temperature is sitting at 71°F, which is about average for the time of year, nothing special.

Thursday 13th August – The only real chance early on.
The highlight is unmistakably Thursday morning at Lucien (beach and point). We've got a nice 6ft swell from the ESE, and with a glassy wind from the NNE at just 3 mph, the surface will be absolutely clean. The combined swell energy is moderate (504), and these are the best conditions you'll see for a while. The swell direction from the ESE is a good match for the optimum SE direction. It's a fairly consistent spot, but crowds are possible, so get in early. The 8-second period is a bit short, so the waves will be a bit weaker and choppier than a longer period, but still very surfable for an intermediate. Over 5ft, so it's a bit much for beginners.

From Thursday afternoon, the wind swings onshore and picks up, and the forecast goes south for a long stretch. Friday through to the next week is just a mess of onshore winds and choppy, lumpy conditions. The swell hangs around at 4ft to 6ft, but the wind is just too strong from the NE, making it a write-off for a good paddle.

Monday 17th August – A late afternoon glimmer.
After a week of dross, Monday afternoon shows a little hope. The wind shifts to a light SSW at 6 mph, giving a clean surface. The swell is 5ft from the E, with a 10-second period, which is a nice step up in quality. The combined energy is moderate (447). It's a cross-off wind, which can be a bit tricky, but it's clean. This is a one-off session, though, as the next day is back to onshore winds.

Tuesday 18th August – Glassy, but weak.
Tuesday afternoon goes completely glassy, with the wind dropping to 0 mph. The swell is a small 4ft from the ENE with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is low (252). It's surfable, but very ordinary. Good for a longboard or a beginner who just wants to get out, but don't expect much punch.

The Second Week – A big, messy swell.
From the 22nd and into the following week, the swell picks up significantly, but the wind stays strong and cross-off. The standout here is the size. On Sunday 23rd August, we've got a 8ft swell from the SSW with a 10-second period and a combined energy reading of 1562 – that's strong wave energy. The wind is cross-off at 22 mph, so the surface is clean, but it's a fresh breeze. This is expert-only territory. Over 8ft, with a long period, this is a powerful, heavy groundswell that will be best on a point or reef, not a straight beach break. The direction is a bit off for the optimum SE, so it might be a bit wonky, but for the brave, it's a big, clean ocean.

Then on Wednesday 26th August, the swell pushes to 10ft from the ENE, with a combined energy of 1489. Again, strong, but with a cross-on wind and a 9-second period, it's going to be a big, lumpy, challenging beast. Only for the most experienced.

The 27th sees a 8ft swell from the ENE with a cross-shore wind, still marginal due to the cross-chop.

The bottom line: The pick of the entire forecast is Thursday morning, 13th August, at Lucien. That's your one true standout. After that, you're waiting until Monday afternoon for a brief clean-up, and then the second week is all about big, clean but very powerful and challenging swell for experts only. For the rest of us, it's a long wait.

Rusty

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