Victoria Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here, and I've been staring at the charts for Victoria Bay. Listen, this is a weird one. There's a massive pulse of energy hitting tomorrow, but it's gonna be a mess on the beach. The real gold is hiding further out, and we've got to be patient. The water’s sitting at 61°, which is a bit nippier than usual for this time of year, so wetsuit up.

We kick off tomorrow, Tuesday the 1st of September. The swell is a solid 7ft to 8ft from the SW, with a shortish 12 to 13-second period. There's a heap of power in the water – we're talking a combined energy of 1495 to 2262 – but a light onshore breeze is going to mess with the shape. It's surfable for the seasoned crew, but you'll be battling a bit of wind chop. Wednesday the 2nd is much the same story: 8ft SW swell, still a pile of energy (2082-2317), but the wind swings cross-onshore from the E. Not ideal.

Thursday the 3rd of September is where it gets interesting. The morning drops a bit to 5ft from the SW with a 12-second period, but the wind swings to a cross-offshore from the W (770). The comment says "expect very good surf conditions" and I'm inclined to agree. Cleaner lines, less juice, but way more fun. Then the afternoon turns ugly – heavy rain, howling SSE wind at 28 mph, and an 12ft SSE windswell with a short 9-second period. That'll be a washing machine. Ugly.

Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th are a write-off. Fresh, lumpy cross-onshore winds and chunky, messy swell. Not worth your time. Sunday the 6th looks even meaner on paper – an 8ft SW swell with a very long 18-second period, and a combined energy of 6491 – that's a serious, powerful groundswell. But with a 22 mph ESE cross-onshore wind, it'll be unsurfable. One for the kite crew, not the paddle crew.

Alright, mark your calendar for Monday the 7th of September. This is the standout in the whole window. The swell drops to a clean 6ft from the S, 13-second period, and the wind... the wind goes dead calm. We're talking full glass (1705 energy). The report says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers" and that's bang on. The South swell will line up perfectly on this reef and point setup. Get in the water early; the crowds can be an issue here, but for quality like this, it's a gamble worth taking.

Tuesday the 8th is another solid call for the morning. We get a small 5ft E swell, 10-second period, but the wind turns offshore from the NNW (730). Clean, lined-up waves. The wind goes back onshore in the arvo, so make it a dawn mission. After that, the week from the 9th to the 13th looks pretty quiet – small, weak swell and onshore winds. A bit of a lull. We get a few cross-off and glassy windows around the 14th of September (Monday) and then Tuesday the 15th of September is a goodie. A 6 to 6ft SSW groundswell with a 12-second period rolls in, and the arvo goes glassy (1107 energy). Excellent conditions for the experienced punter. Wednesday the 16th also sees glassy conditions (836-1327 energy) with a 5 to 5ft SW swell. Clean, lined-up point waves.

So, to boil it down: Don't waste your energy on the big, messy stuff this week. The absolute best wave of the month so far is Monday the 7th of September – get there early for the glass-off. The 15th and 16th look really promising for clean, glassy groundswell for those who can wait.

- Rusty

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