Victoria Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get stuck into it. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s some serious potential lurking out there if you’re willing to wait for it.

Right off the bat, Wednesday morning has a bit of swell, but it’s messy. We’re looking at 5ft of south swell with a 16-second period, but that east-south-east wind is making things lumpy. It’s not the day to be getting your hopes up. Water temp is 61°, which is pretty much average for this time of year.

Thursday is where things start to turn. The morning is glassy, with the wind dropping right out. You’ve got 6ft of south-south-west swell at 12 seconds. This is that clean, groomed kind of surf that Victoria Bay can really turn on. The energy is moderate (1439), and conditions should be firing for those who know the wave. The afternoon breeze picks up a touch, but the surf stays rideable.

Friday and Saturday are quieter, with the swell dropping to around 3-4ft and the wind coming onshore. It’s a bit of a lull, not really worth rushing out for. You’re waiting for the ocean to catch its breath.

Sunday brings a bit more life. The wind goes light and there’s a decent 4-5ft south-west swell. The morning has a cross-offshore breeze and the afternoon goes completely glassy. It’s not big, but it’s clean. This is a good day for getting some long, easy rides without the crowd fighting for every wave.

Monday is a bit of a drop-off, with the swell kicking back down to 4ft and light onshore winds. Tuesday morning sees a bit more size at 6ft, but the wind is on it. The real story for Tuesday is the afternoon. The wind gets strong and swings to the west-south-west, creating a messy cross-shore chop. The swell builds to a solid 12ft, but it’s not going to be any fun on a surfboard. This is more of a kite-surfing setup if anything.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Wednesday, the 2nd of September, sees the swell drop a touch, but we’re still in the 8-10ft range. It’s a bit raw but rideable. But then we hit Thursday, the 3rd. The morning is glassy with a clean 5ft swell, but the real magic happens in the afternoon. The wind goes offshore from the north-north-west and the swell jumps up but the period drops. We’re looking at a solid chest-to-head-high plus day, but for the experienced crew only.

Hold onto your board shorts, because Friday the 4th is the big one. The swell absolutely detonates. We’re talking 21ft of south-east swell, and the energy is just pumping (10396 in the morning, 12387 by the afternoon). This is way too big for this break, to be honest. It’s not a surfer’s wave today, it’s a spectacle. The wind is clean and offshore, but this is a day to watch from the rocks, not to be in the water.

Saturday the 5th is still huge, with 15ft in the morning and 12ft by the afternoon. It’s still too big for most, but for the elite, the morning glass-off and that massive south-east swell might be something special. The energy is still very strong. This is expert territory, no doubt about it.

After that, things start to settle down. Sunday the 6th is still chunky at 8-13ft, but the wind looks onshore. Monday the 7th backs down to 7-8ft but it’s still onshore. The rest of that week and into the next, the swell fades away back to the 3-5ft range with periods dropping. It’s a slow, fade-out kind of end to the window.

So, if you’re picking your moments, the standout is really the first glassy morning on Thursday the 27th of August, where it’s clean and fun. And then, if you’re a proper charger, the early part of the 5th of September, before it gets too wild, is the one to circle on the calendar. But don't hold your breath for anything in between, it's a waiting game.

Stay salty.
Rusty.

Read more