St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got cookin’ for St Mikes over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this is a tough stretch. The water’s sittin’ at about 71°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so that’s one thing we don’t have to complain about.

The pattern? Honestly, it’s a rough one. We’ve got a few days of small, choppy junk, then a spike of big, powerful, but messy swell that’s gonna be blown to bits. There’s a long gap of poor conditions right through the first week, then a few days where the numbers look half-decent on paper, but the wind’s gonna ruin it. Let’s break it down.

Friday the 21st through to Monday the 24th is just a write-off. Tiny, weak swell, energy barely cracking 150-300 (moderate to weak), and that NE to ENE wind is slapping it all sideways. Don’t bother.

We get a bit more hope on Tuesday the 25th. The swell bumps up to 3 ft from the SSW with a long 16-second period, and the energy jumps to 551 (moderate). That’s a proper groundswell, but it’s coming straight onshore with a light ESE breeze. The file calls it “marginal,” and I’d agree – you might get a few clean ones if the tide plays nice, but it’s a gamble.

Wednesday the 26th looks like the best of a bad bunch. The swell is 6 ft from the S with a 17-second period, and the energy is a solid 1952 (strong). That’s a lot of power. The wind goes light and variable, with a bit of an easterly touch. It’s “marginal” again, but if any day has a chance of offering a few lined-up waves, this is it. The long period means it’ll be a bit fat and won’t wall up well on a beach break, but St Mikes is a reef, so it might just hold that shape. The crowd factor is “often” here, so you’ll have company.

Then Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th – the swell is still big, up to 7 ft and 5 ft, but that NE wind cranks up to 25 mph and 18 mph, ripping straight across the face. The energy is huge (2267 and 1012, both strong), but it’s messy and dangerous. This is expert territory, and even then, it’s gonna be a battle.

Saturday the 29th fades back to small (2 ft) and weak, with that same cross-shore wind. Not worth it.

Sunday the 30th throws up a 10 ft SSW swell, but it’s short period (8 seconds) and the wind is 18-31 mph from the SSW. That’s just a washing machine. Only the absolute diehards on big boards and a lot of nerve.

The first week of September is a slow fade. Swell drops to 1 ft to 2 ft, energy sinks below 100 on some days (weak), and the wind is either cross or cross-on. The 1st of September afternoon has a 6 ft ENE swell with a 6-second period, which is basically just wind chop. Kite surfers might have a field day with that setup, but for paddling, it’s a skip.

The standout? It’s gotta be Wednesday the 26th of August, morning or afternoon. That 6 ft, 17-second S swell with that light wind is the closest we get to something clean. But it’s not a bluebird day. Expect a bit of a gamble, and don’t be surprised if it’s a bit fat and tricky.

So, to sum it up: a long dry spell, one day of real promise but with caveats, then a lot of wind and mess. For a spot that’s “fairly consistent,” this is a pretty lean run. But it’s St Mikes – it’s an advanced, exposed reef, so when it’s on, it’s on. Right now, it’s mostly off.

Rusty.

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