St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gutted, honestly. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak around here. We’ve got a long stretch of small, messy, wind-chopped surf, and it’s going to be a grind just to find anything remotely rideable. For the first week, from Wednesday the 9th right through to Tuesday the 15th, there’s just nothing on offer. We’re talking tiny waves under 3ft, with cross-shore winds chopping up what little is there. The swell energy is weak, mostly under 100, and the water’s about normal for this time of year at 71°F, so no surprises there. It’s a dead stretch, plain and simple. Honestly, for the first stretch, you’d be better off sorting your gear or finding a lake to mess around on.

There’s a slight pulse of energy showing for the 16th and 17th, but it’s not much to get excited about. Wednesday afternoon the 16th sees the swell jump to 7ft, but it’s a short-period windswell (6 seconds) and it’s coming with a strong cross-shore breeze. It’s going to be a messy, blown-out mess. Not worth the drive.

Now, the big change, and the one real standout in this whole outlook, comes on the 17th of September. The early morning, before the wind swings, is our best window. We’ve got St Mikes building into 7ft of south swell, with a cross-offshore breeze keeping it reasonably clean. The swell energy is up there at 701, so there’s some proper push to it. That’s the one to be up early for. It’s a reef break and fairly consistent, so it’ll be handling the size better than most. Expect it to be well overhead, so it’s one for the more advanced crew. The swell direction is SSW, which matches what this place wants. As the day rolls on, the wind goes cross-onshore and it gets messy, so be on it first thing. The crowds will be out if it’s good, so get in early.

Then we get another gap. The 18th and 19th are blown-out again, with windswell and washing-machine conditions, nothing worth paddling out for. Don’t even think about it.

Now, the second standout, and this one is more of a promise for later. It’s for Monday the 21st of September. The models are showing another pulse of south swell, around 8ft, and the winds are looking cross-offshore again, keeping it clean. The morning session is okay, but the afternoon is where it’s at, with the swell energy jumping way up to 2241. That’s proper, powerful surf. It’s a long-range call, so treat it as promising rather than locked in, but if it comes together, St Mikes should be excellent. Again, it’s a reef, so the longer-period energy should groom it into proper lines. The period is around 9 seconds, which is workable.

After that, it looks like it fades out again into the 22nd and beyond, with the wind messing things up and the swell dropping. The 23rd is more of the same, so the takeaway is simple: wait for the 17th, and keep an eye on Monday the 21st. The rest is for the kitesurfers. This is Rusty, signing off.

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