St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what we've got coming up for St Mikes over the next couple of weeks. It's a bit of a mixed bag, but there are a couple of windows that could be worth a paddle.

We start off the forecast period on Friday, July 3rd, with some south swell rolling in at about 7 ft. The water's sitting at a noticeably warm 73°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The issue right off the bat is that a moderate cross-shore breeze from the south at 16 mph is putting a cross-chop on the surface, making things messy. The swell energy is moderate, but with that wind and a "marginal" call, it's hard to get too excited. Saturday the 4th is where it starts to look a bit more promising. We've got a nice clean morning with the breeze dropping right off to a light air from the NNE at 3 mph. The swell is a solid 8 ft from the SSE, with a 12-second period, giving it plenty of push. That's a decent-sized wave, getting towards the upper end for a comfortable session, so it's one for the more experienced crew. The afternoon cleans up even more with glassy conditions and a light easterly breeze. The energy is still strong, and with those winds, the surface should be smooth. This is your best bet early on, but keep in mind that with a break that's "often" crowded, you won't be alone out there.

The wind picks up again on Sunday the 5th, turning fresh and cross-shore, killing the quality by the afternoon. From there, we hit a real dry spell. Monday the 6th through to Wednesday the 8th sees the swell drop right off – we're talking knee-high dribble with weak energy readings. It's pretty flat and ordinary. Thursday the 9th brings a bit of a bump back up to 5 ft, but the wind is iffy and the conditions are marginal. Nothing worth rushing for.

Now, looking further ahead, there's something interesting brewing for the second weekend. On Saturday, July 11th, a solid south groundswell pushes in. Saturday morning shows a strong 8 ft swell from the south with a very long 16-second period. The combined wave energy is powerful. The wind is light cross-onshore, which is a bit of a bummer, but the raw energy is there. By the afternoon, the swell drops a touch to 8 ft but still has a long 15-second period. The wind swings to a moderate cross-shore from the NE. This is big, powerful groundswell, the kind that really needs a reef or point break to handle it properly. St Mikes is a reef, so it could handle it well, but that 16-second period can make the sets a bit tricky and walled-off. This is the standout for the advanced surfers in the period, but it's a week and a half away, so don't book the time off just yet – forecasts can change. The following Monday, July 13th, still has some decent swell around 6 ft in the afternoon from the south with a long period, but the wind is moderate and cross-shore again.

The rest of the second week fades out into smaller, choppier conditions with stronger winds. There's a brief moment on Wednesday the 15th with a glassy morning and a tiny 2 ft swell, but that's more of a longboard cruise than anything punchy. All in all, the best window is that Saturday the 4th for clean, solid waves, and then keep an eye on that big groundswell around the 11th. For everything else, you might be better off saving the wax for another day.

- Rusty

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