St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s have a look at what St Mikes is serving up.

It’s a slow burn for the next week and a half, with a lot of small, onshore slop and not much to get the heart rate up. But there’s a big, powerful pulse of swell on the horizon for the second week, and it’s got the potential to be a proper session. We've got a long stretch of poor, small surf from now until the end of next week, but the pattern is going to shift in a big way. The water’s running a touch warmer than normal for the time of year, which is a nice little bonus.

For the next several days, it’s pretty gutless. Small, weak swell and mostly cross or cross-onshore winds have things chopped up and messy. The combined wave energy is weak, with values mostly under 100 (like 5, 15, and 41) – just not enough push to make anything worth the paddle. Don’t waste your time until around August 9th, when there’s a little more energy, but it’s still not going to be clean. The wind is fresh and cross, so it will be lumpy. Even with around 1.2m of swell, the quality isn’t there.

Now, let’s get to the good stuff. The period from the 11th to the 13th of August is where all the energy is. On the morning of the 11th, we’re looking at a solid 8ft of swell and it’s glassy. That’s a big improvement. The energy is starting to ramp up, with a combined value of 1740, which is moderate, but the clean conditions are a major positive. This is the start of the good period.

The standout, though, has to be the morning of the 12th of August. This is where it gets serious. We’re talking about a 15ft swell with an 18-second period, and it’s glassy with zero wind. The combined energy is a massive 12490, which is strong, and the conditions are described as exceptional for expert surfers. The swell direction is SSW, which is right in the pocket for St Mikes. This is long-period groundswell, which is perfect for a reef break like this. This is the pick of the bunch. If you’re experienced, this is your window. The afternoon of the 12th sees even more size, at a massive 21ft, but that’s pushing it – it’s likely to be too big for even this spot, so be careful.

The next morning, the 13th, is still big, with around 11ft of swell and clean winds, but the period has dropped a bit. It will still be a handful, but possibly a bit more manageable. The winds do get a little cross later in the day, but the morning looks good. After that, it starts to back off again, and by the 14th we’re back to smaller, poorer conditions with fresh cross winds, and by the weekend it's all gone.

So, to be honest, there’s only one true standout in this whole 16-day window: the glassy, powerful morning of Tuesday the 12th. It’s a long-range call, so treat it as promising rather than guaranteed, but man, if it comes together, it’s going to be unreal. The other days are just dust until that one comes around.

Stay stoked.

Rusty

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