St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for St Mikes.

Honestly, the next week and a half is a tough slog. The first ten days are mostly a write-off with weak, messy energy and poor surf conditions. The wind is all over the place and the swell is tiny. You’re looking at a long stretch of nothing until we get a flicker of life around Saturday the 20th, but even then it’s marginal. The real standout comes much later, on Friday the 24th of July, and that’s the one to circle.

Let’s break it down. From Tuesday the 14th right through to Friday the 18th, it’s all small, weak, and cross-shore. The combined energy barely gets into double digits, mostly between 26 and 90 (weak energy). The water temp is sitting at 72°, which is about average for the time of year, nothing wild there.

Saturday the 18th afternoon sees a spike in energy – we’re talking 1159 (moderate to strong) – but the swell is 6 ft from the S with a 14-second period, and the wind is a moderate cross-shore. Still only marginal. By Sunday the 19th, it’s a bit better in the morning with 6 ft S swell at 12 seconds, but it’s cross-on. Not worth paddling out for.

Monday the 20th brings some size: 10 ft S swell at 10 seconds in the morning, and 8 ft in the afternoon. That’s expert territory, but the wind is cross-on and the energy is strong (1726 and 1913). Still only rated marginal. For a reef break like St Mikes, that much swell with cross-on wind is a messy, dangerous prospect. Honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Then we get a few more days of poor, lumpy conditions until we hit the highlight. Friday the 24th of July. The afternoon is the one. The wind drops to zero, glassy, calm. The swell is 6 ft from the S with a 16-second period. That’s a very long period groundswell – lots of energy (1914), and it’s going to wrap beautifully into the reef. The comments say “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and that’s no joke. The offshore direction is WNW, and optimum swell is from the SW, so it’s a good match. It’s a fairly consistent spot, but crowds can be often, so expect company. This is the standout of the whole outlook. The morning of the 24th is also clean with a light cross-off breeze and 3 ft SSW swell at 16 seconds, but the afternoon is the real deal.

After that, it’s back to poor conditions from Saturday the 25th through to the end of the month. The energy drops off, winds turn onshore, and the swell fades. By Tuesday the 29th, it’s tiny and messy again.

So, to sum it up: the first ten days are basically a bust. The only true standout is Friday the 24th of July, specifically the afternoon. If you’re an experienced surfer and you can wait, that’s your window. Everything else is a pass.

Rusty.

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