St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for St Mikes. Now, I'll level with you, the next 16 days look like a bit of a mixed bag, and we've got some real quiet spells in there. We're not looking at a classic run of pumping surf, but there are a couple of windows where things might just line up.

The first week and a half is pretty grim, to be honest. We kick off on Sunday the 6th with tiny, poor surf—light rain and a cross-onshore breeze messing it up. The swell is only 3ft from the SSW, and the period is 11 seconds, but the combined energy is a weak 275. The water is sitting at 72°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. It stays poor through the week, with increasing NE winds, and a big spike on Monday the 7th where we see 8ft of S swell with a very long 16-second period, hitting us with a massive 3772 combined energy. The problem is the wind is howling 35 km/h (22 mph) cross-shore, so it's a lumpy, choppy mess. That much swell (over 8ft) is only for the experts, and even then, it's not clean. The rest of that week into the weekend is just small, weak, and onshore. We go through a gap from around the 10th to the 14th with next to nothing surfable.

Now, there is a flicker of hope. On Monday the 14th, the morning shows a 3ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, and the wind is actually a clean cross-offshore. The combined energy is moderate at 487. It's rated as marginal, but the clean wind is a big positive. Then that afternoon, we get a glassy window with a tiny 2ft SSW swell (108 energy). The wind goes glassy, which is a rare treat, but the waves are very ordinary. It's a moment of peace, but not a standout.

The real standout, the one I'd circle on the calendar, is Thursday the 18th of September. The morning sees a solid 10ft swell from the SSE, with a 10-second period, and a massive 2549 combined energy (strong wave energy). The wind is only a light 10 km/h (6 mph) cross-on from the East, described as having "small wind ripples," which is the best wind we'll see for a wave of that size. This is a big swell, over 8ft, so it's for the experts only. The long period isn't super long, but the size and the light wind make it the most promising session of the entire forecast. It's a big, powerful, and relatively clean setup for a reef break like St Mikes, which is fairly exposed to the SW optimum. It's a long way out, so the forecast is less certain, but it's the one to watch.

Another big one rolls in on Monday the 21st, with 10ft SSW swell and a 10-second period, hitting 2454 combined energy. The wind is a moderate cross-shore, so it'll be lumpy, but the energy is there. For the experts, the 18th is the best bet by a long shot.

So, to sum it up: a lot of flat, windy days, a couple of glassy but tiny moments, and one big, powerful, and potentially clean swell for the experts on the 18th. Keep an eye on the long-range, but don't hold your breath for the next week.

Rusty.

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