St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve only got one spot lighting up the board in this 16-day window, so I’m gonna keep it real with you.

The forecast is a bit of a slow burn, with a long stretch of nothing much to write home about. We’re looking at a solid week of poor conditions before we get a glimmer of hope. The only real standout here is a late call, way out there in the second week.

First up, the main event is St Mikes. This is a reef break, and it’s fairly consistent. The water is sitting at 72°, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The early part is a write-off. From Sunday, July 19th, right through to the end of July, it’s a mess. We’ve got cross and cross-onshore winds, lumpy chop, and generally poor surf. The swell is all over the place, but the wind just kills it. There’s a stretch of about 10 days here where you’re better off staying home – the combined energy is weak, barely cracking into the triple digits (171 to 1002), and the conditions are just ugly.

Now, let’s talk about the one that got my attention. Friday morning, July 24th, is a real gem. It’s not the biggest, but the conditions are perfect. The wind goes glassy, completely off the charts. The swell is a clean 4 ft from the S with a period of 11 seconds, offering a moderate 584 combined energy. It’s going to be smooth as butter. The only thing is, this spot can get crowded, and with conditions this good, you can bet it’ll be busy. It’s a solid choice for a Friday morning session, but it’s not the biggest swell on offer.

But the real standout, the one I’d circle on the calendar, is Saturday morning, August 1st. This is a big call, a week and a half out, so don’t hold me to it, but the numbers are sexy. We’re looking at a solid 10 ft from the SSE with a 12-second period. The combined energy is a massive 4455 – that’s pumping. The winds are light and onshore, but the sheer size and power are going to be on. This is a heavy swell, over 8 ft, so it’s strictly for experts. The reef at St Mikes will be handling it, but it’s going to be a proper challenge. If you’re a competent surfer, this is the best chance of the whole forecast.

Other than that, it’s a flat, windy mess. The weekend after that big swell drops off into a cross-shore chop again. So, get your fix on the 24th if you want clean lines, or hold out for the big one on August 1st if you’ve got the balls.

Rusty.

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