St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s cookin’ for this stretch. Honestly, the next 16 days are a tough run at St Mikes. There ain’t a single session that screams "drop everything and go." It’s a reef break that’s fairly consistent, but the conditions keep throwing wrenches. The best you can say is that there are a few windows that might be worth a look if you’re desperate, but mostly it’s a waiting game.

The pattern starts off flat with no real options. Tuesday 25th has a bit of swell – 3ft to 4ft coming from the SSW with a long period (15-17 seconds), and that groundswell energy is moderate (498-805). But the wind is a moderate cross-shore, the surf quality is poor, and there isn’t a single standout. Wednesday 26th sees the swell bump up to 5ft in the morning and 7ft in the afternoon, both from the S with that very long period of 18 seconds. The energy gets strong in the afternoon (2703), but the wind switches to a light cross-onshore, creating some chop. The score is only a 3 out of 10 for the afternoon—marginal at best. Thursday 27th through the first week is a write-off: the wind howls from the NE at 25-31 mph, making a mess of the 3ft to 5ft S swell. There’s a gap of several days with nothing worth paddling out for.

Moving into the second week, nothing improves. Monday 31st August has a big 10ft S swell with a short period of 8 seconds (energy 888-1130), but that’s accompanied by fresh cross-shore winds and poor conditions—only for experts if anyone’s suicidal. Early September stays grim. By Thursday 3rd you get a 4ft S swell with a strong breeze, and then Friday 4th has a huge 13ft to 12ft SSW swell under a near gale cross-offshore wind that cleans it up, but it’s still scored as poor surf. That is big and raw, not a fun paddle. On Saturday 5th the swell peaks at 13ft from the SSW with a 11-second period and massive energy (6207), but it’s cross-shore winds and lumpy—again, only for the hardcore. Sunday 6th drops off to a 6ft SSE swell with fresh cross-shore winds, still poor.

The only faint glimmer is Tuesday 8th September, but it’s weak. There’s a 3ft to 4ft S swell with a 12-13 second period, but the wind stays medium cross-shore, and the energy is low (368-433). It ain’t worth making a trip for.

Honestly, St Mikes is a reef break that needs the right alignment, and this forecast gives us no clean windows with good swell. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, but that’s small comfort when the waves are junk. If you’re a kite surfer, some of those bigger, windy days might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer it’s a blank run. This area tends to go through quiet spells, so it’s not unusual—just a tough one to call.

- Rusty

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