St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gonna be a pretty grim outlook for St Mikes over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a long stretch of straight-up poor surf conditions, so don't be in a hurry.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a massive gap. There’s zero surf worth paddling out for from the start of the period all the way through the first week. We’re talking about days and days of tiny, weak swell with cross-shore or cross-onshore winds messing up what little is there. The energy is weak, reading values like 38 (Monday 3rd August) up to a max of just 288 (Saturday 8th August) but it’s all for nothing because the wind is just rubbish. For a reef break that needs a bit of love, it’s a write-off. The water temp is sitting at 71°F which is about normal for this time of year, nothing special.

Now, the only time the swell starts to get some real size is around the 10th of August. Monday the 10th afternoon sees a 7ft S swell with a short period of 7 seconds, but the combined energy jumps to 406 (moderate) and the wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore from the SSW. That’s lumpy, choppy, and messy. Not a good look for a paddle.

The biggest swell of the whole window hits on Tuesday the 11th of August. We’re talking a massive 16ft S swell with a period of 11 seconds, giving a combined energy reading of 5706 (very strong). But hold your horses. The wind is a cross-onshore 16 mph from the NE, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. That’s a recipe for a washing machine. It’s way too big for anyone but absolute experts, and even then the conditions are going to be horrible. The next day, Wednesday the 12th, is even worse with 28 mph cross-shore winds and the same massive swell. For a reef break, that’s a hard pass. Honestly, with that much wind and size on a beach/reef setup, it’s looking more interesting for the kite surfers than anyone with a paddle.

After that, the swell drops back down through the second week, but the wind stays on it or cross-shore, keeping the surf quality in the gutter. The best you’ll see in that second week is maybe a 6ft SE swell on the morning of Thursday the 13th, but it’s got a light cross-shore wind and the score is still a zero. It’s just not cleaning up.

So, to be straight with you, there are no standout days in this 16-day window. The only real swell is too big and too windy, and the rest is just teasing. It’s a blank run for St Mikes. Keep your eye on the charts, but for now, leave the boards in the car.

Rusty.

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