St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righteo, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what St Mikes is offering up over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, it’s a pretty grim start for the reef at St Mikes. We’re looking at a long, frustrating gap with nothing worth paddling out for from now until well into the second week of September. The water’s sitting at a pleasant 70°, which is about spot on for this time of year, but that’s about the only thing that’s normal. The first week is a write-off. There’s just no quality on offer – winds are mostly cross or cross-onshore, and the wave energy is weak, barely cracking 100 (111 to 135) on Thursday, then jumping to a messy, stormy mess on Friday. That Friday morning pulse sees a big 12ft S swell, but it’s a short-period 9 seconds and comes with a strong, messy cross-chop. That’s not for paddling; if you’ve got a kite, that Friday might be your jam, but for a surfboard, it’s a hard pass. The whole first week is plagued by poor conditions.

Now, things start to look a bit more interesting from the 13th onward, but it’s not a straight-forward picture.

The standout window looks to be Monday the 14th of September. We’ve got a serious pulse of energy rolling in – an 12ft S groundswell with a very long 16-second period. The combined energy is a massive 5764, which is strong to very strong. Now, a long-period S swell at a reef like St Mikes that likes a SW direction is a bit of a tricky one. It’s likely to be big, powerful, and lined up, so only for experienced surfers – anything over 8ft is expert territory. The wind is a light cross-shore from the NE, so it should be clean, with slight crossing ripples. The catch is the morning has light rain, but the light wind is a major positive. This is the pick of the forecast, but it’s a long way out, so treat it as promising but with a pinch of salt.

The Sunday before that, the 13th, also has some size – 7ft to 8ft S swell – but with shorter periods (9-10 seconds) and light rain. It’s just a marginal call, not the standout. Then after the Monday peak, the wind really howls from the NE on Tuesday the 15th, firing up a strong cross-shore chop that ruins what could have been a nice dropping swell.

So, the only true standout in this 16-day window is Monday the 14th of September. It’s a big, clean, powerful day for experts only. The rest of the time, you’re either battling poor conditions or the swell is just too small and weak to bother with. For this area, a long blank run like this isn’t totally abnormal, so don’t lose hope – forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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