St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a long stretch of 16 days, and I’ll be straight with you – it’s a tough run for the most part. The only real spot on the radar is St Mikes, and even that’s a battle. There’s a big gap of surfable conditions, so patience is the name of the game.

The first sniff of anything worthwhile isn’t until the afternoon of Friday, July 31st, but honestly, it’s a no-go. The wind is howling from the south at 12 mph, and with a lumpy cross-chop, that 7ft SE swell is just a messy, blown-out mess. Forget it.

Saturday the 1st of August and Sunday the 2nd are a bit better. The swell hangs around 7ft to 8ft from the SE, with a period stretching from 10 up to 11 seconds. The wave energy is kicking, moving from 750 up to 1591 (moderate to strong). But the wind is still cross-shore, and the commentary keeps saying “marginal.” It’s doable for a dedicated surfer, but it’s not clean. Sunday morning has the lightest breeze, which is your best bet in this early window, but it’s still not a standout.

Then we hit a dead zone. From Monday, August 3rd, all the way through to Friday, August 14th, the surf is almost non-existent. We’re talking tiny waves, mostly under 2ft, and the energy is pitiful, with values dropping to as low as 6. The wind is all over the place, but the swell just isn’t there. There’s a massive spike of 10ft on Thursday, August 6th, but with a 25 mph cross-shore, that’s more of a kite-surfing day than a paddle-in session. The setup at St Mikes, being a reef break, would be absolute chaos.

The real standout, the one to circle on your calendar, is Thursday, August 13th. This is the best on offer. We get a solid 8ft swell from the SSW, with a very long period of 13-14 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy. The water temp is about 72°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The combined energy hits a massive 2197 (very strong). The wind is from the NE, so it’s cross-shore, but the commentary says “marginal” – a bit of a side wind ripple. Still, this is a reef break, and that long-period SSW groundswell is exactly what it wants. It’s a big swell though, over 8ft, so this is for experienced surfers only. The crowd factor is noted as “often,” so expect a few others out there too. This is the one to aim for.

The following days fade out quickly. Friday the 14th is a write-off with near gale-force winds, and the rest of the run is back to tiny, weak surf.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a washout with only marginal, wind-affected windows. The real shot is Thursday, August 13th, at St Mikes. It’s a long-range call, so don’t bet the house on it, but if the forecast holds, that’s the day to get wet.

Rusty.

Read more