St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I'm Rusty, and I've got to be honest with you about the next 16 days at St Mikes. It's a rough-looking stretch of surf, with a big gap of poor conditions. There's not a single standout window that I'd call decent.

The only spot in the forecast is St Mikes, a reef break. The water temp is about 69°, which is normal for this time of year, so that's not the issue.

Let's break it down. Starting Wednesday, September 2nd, and Thursday, the 3rd, it's all cross-shore winds and tiny swell. Wednesday morning has a 3ft SSW swell with a long 15-second period, but a 25 km/h cross-shore wind is making it messy. The combined swell energy is weak (281). Thursday afternoon picks up a bit to 3ft, but the wind jumps to 30 km/h from the SSW, and it's just lumpy and poor.

Friday the 4th brings a big jump in size – 10ft of S swell in the morning – but it's accompanied by a strong 35 km/h cross-on wind and rain. The combined energy is strong (1528), but the quality is terrible. That's expert-only size, but the wind is ruining it. This continues through the weekend. Saturday and Sunday are a complete washout.

Monday the 7th has a spike of 7ft S swell with a very long 16-second period, and the combined energy hits 2079. That's a lot of power. But the wind is howling cross-shore from the NE at 35 km/h. The period is long enough for some proper groundswell, but at a reef, a 7ft wave with that much wind is just a mess. Not clean, not for the inexperienced.

The rest of the first week and into the second week is a slow decline. The swell drops to almost nothing – 0.7ft by Friday the 11th – and the wind is still a problem. The periods are all over the place, from 5 to 18 seconds, but the energy is just too low.

There's a slight uptick mid-week two, on Monday the 14th, with 8ft of S swell, but the wind is onshore from the E at 25 km/h. That's a messy, closed-out scenario. Not worth it. The same goes for Tuesday the 15th, with 6ft S swell and a 13-second period, but the wind is a strong 45 km/h cross-shore. That's kite-surfing weather, not surfing.

The very last day, Thursday the 17th, has a 4ft SSW swell with an 18-second period, which is about as long as it gets. The combined energy is moderate (624). But the wind is a light cross-on from the E, and it's only a marginal call. The period is so long that at a reef, it might break too straight, and with the wind, it's just not worth the gamble.

Bottom line: it's a blank run. There's no classic, clean session on offer. The crowds are often an issue at St Mikes, but it won't matter because nobody will be out in this junk. Forecasts can change, but for now, I'd give it a miss.

Rusty.

Read more