St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what St. Mikes has in store for us.

Alright, straight up, the next couple of weeks are looking like a bit of a mixed bag, with one serious pulse of energy that might just make it all worthwhile. We’ve got a big swell rolling in, but the wind is going to be a constant battle for most of the run.

The main event kicks off on Friday, July 10th. We’ve got a strong, long-period groundswell from the S pushing in at 8 ft on Friday morning. The period is a solid 15 seconds, which means proper, powerful lines – the kind that will really stand up on this reef. The combined energy is high (2381). It’s coming with that cross-onshore SSE breeze at 6 mph, which is going to put a bit of a wrinkle on the face. It’s surfable, and for the experienced crew, it will be the pick of the next few days, but it’s not quite the classic glassy perfection we’d dream of. Friday afternoon sees the wind pick up a notch, and the quality drops.

Into the weekend, Saturday the 11th is smaller but still punchy at 5 ft to 6 ft from the S, with that same long-period energy (13-14 seconds). The wind is still a cross/cross-onshore breeze, making it clean enough for a few if you’re keen, but nothing to write home about. Sunday the 12th is a write-off with onshore winds in the morning, though the arvo glass-off sees the swell drop right down to 3 ft. It’s a weak end to the weekend.

After that, we hit a real dry spell. From Monday the 13th all the way through to Friday the 24th of July, the swell is just too small and weak to get excited about – we’re talking waist-high or smaller, with poor wind most days. There’s a few glassy mornings in there on the 15th and 16th, but with waves struggling to hit 1.0 ft and 3 ft respectively, you’d be better off on a longboard just getting wet. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no weird surprises there.

Now, the real standout, and the one to keep an eye on, is Saturday, July 25th. The models are showing a big S groundswell coming in at 6 ft with a very long period of 16 seconds. The combined energy jumps up to 1552, so this will have some serious push. This is a proper groundswell, and for a reef like St. Mikes, that long period energy should wrap in nicely and offer some well-shaped, powerful waves. The caveat is the moderate cross-shore wind at 16 mph from the NE, which will create some chop. It's going to be a wild session, only for the advanced crew. It’s a long way out, so don’t book the time off just yet, but this is easily the best-looking day on the charts. The rest of that week looks small again.

So, the bottom line: there's a decent, punchy swell on the 10th, but the real gem for experts is the promising but uncertain pulse on Saturday the 25th. In between? A lot of flat spells and small, weak days.

Rusty.

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