St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at the next couple of weeks. We’ve got one main spot on the radar, and I’m going to be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch.

The only real break on offer for the whole 16-day window is St Mikes, a reef setup. The water temp is sitting at 72°, which is about 2° warmer than the usual for this time of year – a bit of a warm blanket, but nothing too wild.

Right out of the gate, Monday the 7th of September has some size. We’re looking at a solid 8ft of S swell, with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is a hefty 3772 – that’s strong stuff. But here’s the kicker: the wind is a stiff NE at 12 mph, blowing cross-shore, and it’s lumpy. The morning is a bit of a mess, and the afternoon gets worse with a 22 mph cross-breeze. It’s big, but it’s not clean. For the experienced crew only, if you’re desperate. The swell is over 8ft, so this is strictly for experts.

The rest of the first week is a write-off. Tuesday through to Sunday the 13th, the swell drops right off into the 1.0ft to 3ft range, with periods mostly short and winds staying on the wrong side of things – cross-shore and cross-onshore, often fresh. The energy is weak, often under 200 (and sometimes under 100). It’s just not worth paddling out. There’s a brief moment on Thursday afternoon the 10th with glassy conditions, but with only 1.0ft of swell, it’s a flat, glassy pond.

The second week doesn’t bring much relief. Monday the 14th has a bit of onshore junk with rain, and by Tuesday the 15th, we get a 5ft S swell, but with a short period of 7 seconds and messy wind. The energy is moderate at 249, but the quality is poor. The period is too short for any real shape.

The standout moment, if you can call it one, comes late in the window. On Friday the 18th of September, we see a building swell. The morning has 7ft of S swell with a 12-second period – that’s a solid groundswell with moderate energy of 1302. The wind is light and onshore, so it’s marginal. The better session looks to be the afternoon: 8ft of SSE swell, still a 10-second period, but the wind swings to a gentle NNE cross-shore at 9 mph. The energy is strong at 1040. This is still a big wave at over 8ft, so this is expert territory only, and it’s a reef, so it’ll be a proper, heavy take-off. The 10-second period means it’ll be a bit more lined up than the short-period junk. This is the best of a bad bunch – a promising, but late, call.

Saturday the 19th is still in the margin with 5ft and 4ft, but the wind is messy again. After that, it’s a slow fade into flatness.

So, honestly, there’s a big gap of poor surf from the 7th basically all the way through to the 18th. The only real highlight is that Friday the 18th afternoon window at St Mikes. It’s big, it’s for experts, and the crowds are likely, but it’s the only one with any real pulse. Keep your eyes on the forecast for that one.

Rusty.

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