St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again, same deal in feet and knots.

We're looking at a real mixed bag, with some long waits between windows. The first few days are a total write-off, so don't bother. Stick with it though, because there are a couple of proper sessions hidden in this forecast.

The run starts on Saturday the 18th with a pulse of energy, but the wind is cross and messy. The combined swell energy is moderate (216) on Saturday morning, but it's not clean. By Saturday afternoon, the energy jumps to a strong level (735) with a 5ft south swell, but it’s still cross-shore. It’s showing signs of life, but the conditions are just marginal.

The first real standout hits on Sunday the 19th. This is the one to circle. We’ve got a clean 6ft S swell with a 12-second period and glassy conditions, giving us a combined energy of 835. The water temp is sitting at 72°, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there. Sunday morning will be the pick of the first week, with that glassy offshore wind making St Mikes look like a dream. The swell is a bit over 5ft, so it’s not for beginners, but that’s a proper groundswell with long gaps between sets, making it easier to get out back. The afternoon cleans up too, with a 5ft swell and still glassy, just a little less energy (598).

We then hit a dry spell through Monday and Tuesday. The swell drops, the wind turns cross-onshore, and it’s just not worth paddling out.

Then, the next big moment comes on Wednesday the 22nd. This is another standout. The morning brings a superb 6ft SSW groundswell with a 14-second period and glassy conditions. The energy is huge at 1408, and this is classed as excellent for experienced surfers. Again, that 6ft is a bit much for the newbies, but for anyone who knows what they’re doing, this is peak St Mikes. The afternoon eases off to a 4ft swell but stays glassy, still a very good session.

After that, it gets shaky again. The wind picks up strongly on the 23rd and 24th, with lumpy cross-chop and a big 10ft swell on the 23rd afternoon that’s only for experts and even then, the wind is messy. The energy numbers are high (1500), but the quality is gone. The following days are dominated by strong cross-shore winds and dropping swell, so it’s not worth chasing.

The final week (from the 25th onwards) is mostly a bust. The swell is small and the wind is either cross or onshore. There’s a brief moment on the 27th with a very long 15 to 16-second period SSW swell, but it’s small and cross-onshore, so it’s just a tease. The 28th has a 20-second period swell, which is incredibly long, but it’s only 2ft and cross-shore, so it’s a washout. That long period at a reef break like St Mikes would normally be a dream, but not with that wind and size.

So, the bottom line: Sunday the 19th morning and Wednesday the 22nd morning are your only true standouts. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty

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