St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me tell you how it is. It's Rusty here, and I've been staring at the charts for this region. Honestly, it’s a pretty grim stretch ahead, so brace yourselves.

Right off the bat, we've got a major problem: there's absolutely nothing worth paddling out for over the first week. From Monday the 14th right through to the end of Sunday the 20th, it’s a total write-off. The swell is tiny, mostly around 0.7ft to 1ft, and the wind is all over the shop—cross, cross-on, even a near gale on the Monday. The wave energy is pitiful, with readings barely reaching 81 (weak energy) at best, often just a measly 16 or 25. You’d be wasting your time. There is one brief moment on the afternoon of Sunday the 20th that shows a "clean" wind condition with a light breeze, but with only 0.7ft of swell, it’s just flat glass. Not surfable.

Now, things look like they might change for the worse... I mean, for the bigger. Around Monday the 21st of September, we see a significant pulse of swell from the SSW. However, that’s where the good news ends. The swell jumps to 10ft Monday morning and then 12ft by the afternoon. That’s big, heavy stuff, way over the 8ft mark, meaning it's for experts only. But the real killer is the wind. A strong breeze and near gale from the WSW and SW are going to absolutely tear it up. The wave energy is massive—2629 (very strong energy) on Monday afternoon—but it’s going to be a messy, blown-out mess. That’s not a surf session; that’s a survival mission or maybe something for the kite crew.

Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd settle down a bit with 7ft to 5ft of swell from the SSE, but the wind is still cross-shore and fresh, keeping the quality low. The energy is moderate to strong, with readings of 750 and 823, but it won't be pretty.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. From Thursday the 24th right through to Tuesday the 29th of September, we’re looking at tiny waves again, mostly under 3ft, with poor winds and low energy. There’s a slight uptick on Tuesday the 29th afternoon with 5ft of SSW swell and 477 moderate energy, but the wind is cross-onshore and fresh. Just not worth the drive.

If I had to pick the least horrible option, it would be that brief window on Sunday the 20th afternoon for the cleanest conditions, but there's no swell. If you're an expert and you have a death wish, maybe Monday the 21st morning at St Mikes (a reef break) when it's clean and 10ft from the SSW, but the wind is a howling 25 mph cross-offshore. It’s a short-period swell (8 seconds is short, so not great) and it'll be heavy and dangerous. It’s not good surf.

Water temp: For the first surf break mentioned, St Mikes, the water is about 70°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year with a tiny anomaly of -0.5°.

Honestly, this forecast is a real heartbreaker. A blank run like this is unusual, but not unheard of. Let's hope the models change.

Rusty.

Read more