St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s break down what’s coming for St Mikes in the next couple of weeks.

First thing: the water is 23°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Feels nice.

The forecast starts Tuesday, July 28, but it’s weak. Tuesday morning has a 0.7m SSW groundswell (17 seconds) but the wind is a cross-shore from the south at 35 km/h, just messing it up. The combined energy is moderate (431), but the conditions are poor. Tuesday afternoon gets 2.3m S swell, but it’s short period (8 seconds) and still cross-shore with a moderate breeze. Not good.

Wednesday, July 29, stays marginal. Morning has 1.6m S swell with a light cross-onshore breeze, and the afternoon bumps to 2.1m SE swell, but wind picks up to 25 km/h cross-shore. You’re battling chop.

Thursday, July 30, is the first real window. Morning offers 1.8m SE swell with a cross-offshore wind from the southwest at 30 km/h, and it’s clean. The combined energy is moderate (758). By Thursday afternoon, the swell jumps to 2.5m SSE, still clean cross-offshore, and the energy spikes to strong (2287). That’s a standout. The swell is 2.5m, so this is for experienced surfers only. The break is a reef, and the optimum direction is SW – we’re getting SSE, which is a bit off, but the clean conditions make it very tempting.

Friday, July 31, fades. Morning is 2.0m SE, cross-shore, and the afternoon is clear but cross-onshore and choppy. Saturday, August 1, is poor – small, choppy, cross-onshore. Then we hit a long, dry spell. From Sunday, August 2, right through to Sunday, August 9, it’s almost all poor surf with tiny swell and bad winds. There’s a brief moment on Thursday, August 6, in the morning – glassy with a 0.5m, 15-second SSW groundswell, but it’s tiny. Energy is weak (135). Not worth it.

The real event is Monday, August 10, and Tuesday, August 11. Monday morning brings 2.5m SSW swell and a moderate cross-shore wind, energy strong at 1685. Monday afternoon jumps to 3.0m SSW, moderate cross-shore, energy at 2860. That’s big, but side-shore chop. Tuesday, August 11, is the best of the whole run. The morning has a massive 3.5m SW groundswell with a very long period of 16 seconds. The combined energy is off the charts at 8434 – very strong. The wind is light cross-onshore from the east-northeast at 10 km/h, which is pretty clean. This is a beast. The size (3.5m) means experts only. The long period will make it break straight at the beach, but St Mikes is a reef, so it should hold up well. Tuesday afternoon drops to zero due to cross-onshore chop.

If you’re skilled and want the best, the standout is Tuesday morning, August 11. The swell is huge, long period, right direction, and the wind is light. It’s over a week out, so keep an eye on it – promising but not locked in. The second best is Thursday afternoon, July 30 – smaller but cleaner.

Overall, there’s a big gap of nearly no surf from August 1 to August 9. Don’t hold your breath. The good stuff comes late.

Rusty.

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