St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, let's see what we've got for St Mikes.

Right off the bat, it's looking pretty grim. We've got a long stretch of nothing happening here. The first few days are a total write-off with tiny, weak swell and cross-shore breezes messing up what little there is. Water temp is sitting at 73°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing while you're sitting there watching flat lines. You'll be waiting until Thursday the 9th of July before you even see something worth paddling out for, and even then it's marginal.

That Thursday morning brings a little pulse of SSW groundswell – about 3ft – but the wind is a cross-shore from the south and the energy is still moderate (439). It's a "might be worth a look if you're desperate" kind of day. Things get a bit more interesting heading into Friday the 10th. We're looking at a solid 8ft of S swell with a very long 16-second period, pumping a lot of energy into the reef (2608). That's serious groundswell. The catch? Thursday afternoon's S wind swings to a cross-onshore Friday morning, and then goes onshore in the afternoon. It'll be lumpy and blown out. That kind of size and period is really only for the experienced crew anyway – beginners will get smashed.

Now, here's where we get a real standout. Saturday the 11th of July. The morning is absolutely glassy – wind is barely a breath from the ESE at 5 km/h. That is a major positive. We've got a clean 5ft S groundswell with a 13-second period, and the energy is still strong (892). For a reef break like St Mikes, that's a recipe for some proper shaped-up waves. The swell direction is SSW, which is bang on the optimum direction for this spot. This is the best morning of the entire forecast. Get on it early. It's not huge, but it'll be clean and lined up. Expect a few others in the water, too – St Mikes can get crowded sometimes, and on a Saturday with that forecast, it'll be no different.

After that, it gets messy again. Sunday the 12th has a similar 8ft SSW swell but with a cross-shore wind that picks up to 25 km/h, turning it into a bumpy mess. Then we hit another dry spell. From Monday the 13th right through to Saturday the 18th, it's mostly tiny with poor conditions. The swell does try to lift a couple of times, but the wind is just never right. It's frustrating.

Looking further out, there are a couple of flashes in the pan. Monday the 20th of July has an 8ft SSE swell with moderate energy (1692), but that 25 km/h cross-shore wind is going to make it a chore. Then on Wednesday the 22nd of July, there's a big one. A massive 13ft SSW groundswell is forecast, with a very strong energy reading (6811). The period is 12 seconds. That is a *lot* of water moving around. The wind is a lighter cross-shore, which helps, but at that size, this is experts-only territory on a reef. It's also a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but it's something to dream about.

So, for the best on offer: no contest. Saturday the 11th of July, first light at St Mikes. It's the only truly clean, glassy window with decent swell. Don't sleep on it.

Rusty.

Read more