St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, checkin’ the 16-day crystal ball for St Mikes. It’s a mixed bag, with a few clean windows and a whole lot of junk in between.

The overall pattern is some S-SSW groundswell trying to show up, but the wind is gonna be the boss for most of it. The combined swell energy during the better windows is in the moderate to strong range (568-2379), but direction and wind are often working against us.

We start with a bit of a slow period. Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th of July have some pulse, but the wind is messy. Thursday morning, you’ve got 3ft SSW swell at 14 seconds, but with a cross wind from the SSW at 12 mph, the combined energy reading (601) is decent, but the surf is poor. It’s the same story through the afternoon and into Friday—the wave height builds to 8ft by Friday morning with a 15-second period from the south, but it’s a cross-onshore wind (9 mph) and the combined energy jumps to 2379. The surf is marginal, and the tide or conditions just aren’t right. This is advanced stuff, and the crowds are often a factor here.

Now, Saturday the 11th keeps the 5ft S swell, but the wind is light or onshore, and the energy drops to 822-839. Still only marginal. The real standout window comes on Sunday the 12th of July in the morning. The swell drops to a clean 4ft from the south, with a 12-second period, and the wind goes glassy from the east at just 3 mph. The combined energy is a solid 568. This is the best on offer—clean, glassy conditions, and the setup is a reef break that handles the S swell well. The water temp is average for the time of year, nothing unusual. It’s worth a paddle, but keep in mind the crowds are often there.

After Sunday, it drops off hard. Monday the 13th through to Wednesday the 22nd of July is a long stretch of tiny or poor surf. The swell drops below 3ft, and the wind is mostly cross or stronger from the NE, with combined energy readings often under 100 (weak energy). There’s a bump on Thursday the 16th in the afternoon with 5ft S swell, but the period is a short, bumpy 5 seconds, and the wind is near gale from the SSW at 31 mph. Total mess. The run from the 13th to the 22nd is a big gap—about 9 days where it’s really not worth your time.

Then, there’s a late-breaking consolation. Thursday the 23rd of July in the morning, we get a glassy morning with 3ft SSW swell, a very long 16-second period, and a combined energy of 288. The wind is glassy from the SW. That’s a promising, clean window for a point break or reef setup, but it’s a long way out—over a week away—so take it with a grain of salt. The period is so long, the waves might be a bit straight at the beach, but at St Mikes, a reef, it should link up nicely.

So the real highlight is Sunday the 12th in the morning. Glassy, clean, waist-high plus groundswell. If you can’t make that, the 23rd of July morning is a distant second. For the rest, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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