St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wettie, let’s talk about St. Mikes.

Honestly, for the next week and a half, we’re looking at a pretty grim picture. The ocean’s gonna be small, bumpy, and just plain uninviting. We’ve got day after day of cross-shore winds and minimal energy. Monday, September 8th kicks off with a fresh NE breeze, cross-shore, and the swell’s barely a 3 feet (1.0m) with weak energy (347). It’s lumpy, it’s messy, and there’s just nothing to get excited about. The whole first week stays that way – we’re talking ankle-biters to knee-high slop. You’ll see some pulses of long-period groundswell from the SSW, like Friday morning with a 16-second period, but the height is only 1 feet (0.4m), so it's a tease. The energy is weak, and the wind keeps ruining any chance of a clean surface. It’s a long, flat, bumpy stretch, so you can hang up the board for a bit.

Now, the water temp is sitting around 72°, which is roughly normal for this time of year, so at least you won't freeze while you're staring at the flat ocean.

But hold on. Check the calendar for the 18th of September, which is a Friday. That’s when things get properly interesting, and I mean properly. Overnight, the swell jumps to a solid 10 feet (3.0m) from the SSW with strong energy (1356) and the period is a workable 9 seconds. The wind is still cross-onshore and lumpy in the morning, so it’s going to be wild and woolly, but the size is there. Then by Friday afternoon, it’s pushing 13 feet (4.0m) with the energy just exploding to 4779. That’s a shitload of water moving. It’s going to be big, it’s going to be heavy, and only for the experienced crew. The wave direction is SSW, which is right in the optimum zone for this reef, so there’s real potential. This is the standout, but it’s not for the faint-hearted.

If you miss that, the weekend stays solid with waves in the 10-12 feet (3-3.5m) range on Saturday, but the winds are a bit cross-onshore and choppy, making it a messy power session rather than a clean one. It will be big, but the quality will be hit and miss. The water temp is still around average, and the crowds could be a factor as the swell hits.

So, there you have it. A whole load of nothing for a week plus, then a pulse of serious size around the 18th. That Friday is the one to mark on the calendar, but be prepared for a challenging day. Don’t expect any clean perfection. The setup looks way more interesting for the kite crew than the paddle crew for most of that run.

Signing off.

Rusty

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