St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've gotta be straight with you – this stretch is gonna test your patience. The reliable pulse of swell just isn't hitting the spot for most of the outlook, and the wind’s gonna be a real pain in the arse for most of it. We’ve got one solid window that looks like a cracker, and a couple of others that are worth a look if you're keen, but you'll be waiting for it.

The first real chance of a wave doesn't come until Saturday, 18 July. Before that, it’s a write-off. The swell that shows up from the 11th through the 17th is junk—small, short-period slop with cross-shore or onshore wind, and the energy is weak. Check the numbers: a combined energy of just 912 to 23, really poor stuff. Don't bother paddling out.

So, the standout. That’s Saturday morning, 18 July, at St Mikes. This is where it all comes together. The forecast shows a solid S swell at 6ft, with a period of 14 seconds—that’s proper groundswell, with some real punch. The energy reading is a healthy 1212, so it’s got some grunt. But the real magic? Glassy conditions. Zero wind. That’s the kind of morning you dream about. The reef will be clean and lined up. The swell direction is from the S, and the optimum is from the SW for St Mikes, so it's a touch angled, but with that long period, it’ll wrap in nicely. The crowds here are "often", so expect some company for that one. It’s an advanced break, so this isn't one for the beginners—6ft on a reef with a long period is proper.

Now, if you miss that window, the next sniff of something decent is on Thursday morning, 23 July. Still a full week away from today. The morning session shows a 4ft swell from the S, but the period is a massive 20 seconds. That’s very long-period groundswell. The energy is strong at 1271, and the wind is glassy again. With a period that long, the waves will be super clean, with long, spaced-out sets. At St Mikes (a reef), that long period is a real advantage—it'll focus the energy nicely. The trade-off is that the swell is smaller, 4ft, so it won't be as powerful as the 18th, but it could be a really fun, clean session. The afternoon gets messy with a cross-shore SSW wind, so get in early.

The other one to keep an eye on is the morning of Sunday, 19 July, but it's a worry. The swell is big at 8ft from the S, with a 14-second period and a strong energy reading of 2714. That’s big, powerful stuff. But the wind is a fresh cross-shore from the NE at 35 km/h. That’s going to make it lumpy and messy. For a reef break, that’s going to be a washing machine. Only the experts should even consider it, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. The afternoon is the same story with even stronger wind.

Beyond that, from the 20th to the 26th, it's a repeating pattern of small, underpowered swell (2ft to 5ft) with cross-shore or onshore winds and weak energy. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so you won't need a thick wetsuit, but you'll need a lot of patience.

Keep your eyes on the 18th morning. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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