St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days are looking like a real mixed bag. We’ve got a solid pulse of swell on the way, but the wind is gonna be the main character, and not always in a good way. Let’s break it down.

First thing, the water temp at St Mikes is sitting at 70°F, which is a touch above the long-term average for this time of year, but nothing too wild. It’s comfy.

The forecast starts with a bit of a flat patch. The first few days are a total write-off. Sunday the 16th through Tuesday the 19th of August, we’re looking at tiny, weak swell with messy cross-shore winds. The wave energy is so low it’s barely registering. Not worth getting wet.

Things start to pick up on Thursday the 20th. The swell height gets to 4 ft from the SSW, but the period is a short, choppy 7 seconds and the wind is a fresh 30 km/h cross-shore. The energy is moderate, but the quality is just not there. It’s lumpy.

The real action starts from Friday the 21st of August. We get a jump in swell size, hitting 5 ft from the SSW. The combined energy jumps to strong, and the period stretches to 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. But here’s the catch: the wind is still a fresh 30 km/h cross-shore. It’s going to be a bumpy, lumpy ride. Saturday the 22nd pushes up to 7 ft from the SSW with a short 6-second period. Still messy.

Sunday the 23rd is where we start to see the potential. The swell is 7 ft from the S, period 8 seconds, and the energy is building. Wind is still strong and cross-shore though. The best chance for a proper session looks like Monday the 24th of August. That morning, we’ve got an 8 ft swell from the south with a 17-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. The combined energy is a massive 3718, which is very strong. The wind is a strong 30 km/h cross-shore from the NE. This is the standout. The size is getting into expert territory, and that long period will make the waves powerful and walled-up at beach breaks. On a reef like St Mikes, it could be epic, but you’ll be battling a strong cross-shore breeze. After that, the swell slowly drops back through the rest of the week, with energy fading. The wind stays a constant problem, mostly from the NE at 20-35 km/h, keeping things lumpy.

For the absolute best on offer, I’d be eyeing Monday the 24th of August at St Mikes. The swell is 8 ft from the south, that’s a solid groundswell, and the energy is pumping. The reef will handle the long period (17s) well, giving you some powerful, lined-up waves. The caveat is the 30 km/h cross-shore wind – it’s going to be blowing and bumpy, but on a break like this, the swell might just overpower the chop. It’s a session for the experienced crew only.

The second half of the outlook, from the 25th of August through to the 31st, is a slow fade. Swell drops from 5 ft down to 2 ft, and the energy follows suit. The wind stays cross-shore, never really going offshore. It’s a lot of small, choppy, and lumpy days. Not much to get excited about.

So, to sum it up: we’ve got a 10-day wait for the real swell to arrive, and even then, the wind is going to be a constant challenge. The one clear standout is that Monday the 24th, with a massive pulse of south swell, but it’s for the experts only and you’ll be dealing with a strong cross-breeze. The rest of the time, it’s mostly small and messy. Normally I’d say forecasts can change, but this one looks pretty locked in for a frustrating run until that one big day.

Rusty.

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