St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for St Mikes over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m scratching my head a bit. There’s a big fat nothing in the first week, and it’s a long stretch of poor conditions. We’ve got a few days of small, messy swell and onshore or cross-shore winds that just aren't doing us any favours. The water’s a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting around 73°, which is a nice bonus, but you’ll be sitting on the beach feeling that warmth more than the waves.

The only real spark in the whole outlook comes Wednesday morning, July 29th. It’s not huge, but it’s the standout. We’re looking at a clean swell, 6ft from the SSE with a period of 8 seconds, and the wind is a light cross-offshore from the SW. It’s a bit of a short period, so the waves will be a little sectiony, but with the wind cleaning it up, it should be fun. The combined energy is moderate (678). This is an advanced reef break, so you’ll want your wits about you, especially if it gets a bit of size. It’s the only real window of quality in the whole run.

After that little burst, it’s back to the same old story. The wind picks up with a fresh breeze from the SSW on the 30th, and we’re back to lumpy, cross-chop conditions. The swell sticks around but it’s blown out. The rest of the first week and into the second week is a write-off – a mix of tiny surf, strong winds, and cross-shore chop. There’s a glimmer of glassy conditions on the morning of Sunday, August 2nd, but the swell is almost non-existent at 1ft, so it’s a flat, pretty sea.

Into the second week, the pattern doesn’t change much. There’s a bit of energy here and there, but the wind is a problem. By Sunday, August 9th, we see a big jump in combined energy up to 1341, with a 7ft S swell. That’s proper strong, but it’s getting hammered by a strong breeze from the NE. That’s messy, lumpy, and not for the paddle board. That sort of setup with a big SW wind and a beach setup would be more interesting for the kite crew than us surfers. The swell on the 11th is a long period groundswell, but 31 mph winds from the SSW will make it a total mess.

So, the short story? If you’re a surfer, your only real window is Wednesday morning, July 29th. The rest is a long, frustrating gap of poor conditions. It’s a tough call, but that’s how it’s looking.

Rusty.

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