St Mikes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here with the skinny on St Mikes over the next couple of weeks. We’re looking at a reef break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the swell, but it’s got a real picky side – advanced only, and crowds are often a thing. The best of the run is narrow, but there’s a window that’s worth setting the alarm for.

Right now, the weekend of the 18th is a no-go. Saturday morning starts glassy but tiny – 1.6 ft S swell, 14s period, but the energy’s weak (196). That’s not enough to get excited about. Saturday afternoon gets a bit of size (3.6 ft S, 13s) but the wind goes cross and the energy picks up to 406 – still marginal. Sunday the 19th is similar: 4.9 ft SSE, 13s in the morning, but cross-on wind; afternoon drops to 4.6 ft SE, 12s, still cross-on. Not worth paddling out.

Then Monday the 20th – that’s the standout. Monday morning, the stars align: glassy conditions, 6.2 ft of SE swell, 12s period, and the combined energy is a solid 1042 – that’s moderate but punchy. The swell direction is a bit off the optimum SW, but with clean glass like that, the waves will be well-shaped and fun for the crew who can handle a reef. Expect very good surf. Crowds are likely, so get there early. Monday afternoon the wind turns cross-on and the energy drops to 935 – still okay but not as clean.

Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd are a washout – cross winds, poor quality, dropping energy. Thursday the 23rd is messy with rain showers and cross-on wind. Friday the 24th is poor in the morning, but Friday afternoon shows a glimmer: 4.6 ft SSW, 17s period, energy 1030 – that’s a long-period groundswell, but it’s cross-on and choppy. Still, the long period means better shape at a reef, so it might be worth a look if you’re desperate.

Saturday the 25th morning has 5.2 ft SSW, 18s – very long period – and energy 1767 (strong). But again, cross-on wind. That’s promising but not pristine. Afternoon gets choppier. Sunday the 26th is poor with cross winds. Monday the 27th is light rain and onshore.

The following week (July 28 to August 2) is mostly poor. Tuesday July 28 morning has a big 8.2 ft SE swell, 8s period – that’s short-period windswell, and with 22 mph cross winds, it’s lumpy chaos. That’s expert-only and even then, not great. After that, it fades to tiny, weak surf. The last few days of July and start of August are flat – 1 ft to 3 ft, with poor conditions. So the only real window is Monday July 20 morning. If you’re an advanced surfer and don’t mind sharing the lineup, that’s your moment.

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