Baggies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and here’s the outlook for Baggies, the point we’re sitting on.

Right off the bat, I gotta say, the next sixteen days aren’t exactly firing for us. We’ve got a bit of a rough patch ahead. The surf we’ve got on the calendar for the first couple of days is there, but it’s heavily compromised by the wind. This is a fairly consistent spot, so normally you’d be a bit more optimistic, but the tradeoffs on the table are real.

Starting on the morning of Sunday the 16th of August, we see that easterly swell at about 5ft, with an 11-second period. That’s a groundswell, so the waves will have some energy behind them, but the northeast wind at 12 mph is coming across the wave faces, so it’s cross-shore. This is a moderately energetic swell (543), but the cross-chop is going to mess with the quality. Water temperature is 70°, which is bang on average for this time of year. That afternoon the swell picks up a touch to 6ft and the same cross-onshore wind kicks up to 16 mph, making it lumpier. It’s a bit frustrating because the waves are there, they’re just not clean.

Monday the 17th is much the same story: 5ft to 6ft of east-northeast swell through the day. The swell period drops to 10 seconds, so it’s a bit more short period and won’t have the same grunt. The northeast breeze drops to a gentle 9 mph, so the cross-chop is lighter, but it’s still not the offshore glass we’re chasing. The afternoon sees the combined energy jump up to 1177, so there’s moderate to strong energy in the water. It’s still marked as marginal surf, and no raves about the conditions.

Now, from Tuesday the 18th right through Saturday the 29th of August, it’s a long dry spell. There’s a persistent run of poor surf conditions. We get a few days of southeast swell, then a bit of short-period south swell, but the wind is either cross-on or cross-shore, and the quality ratings are bottom of the barrel. The wave heights bob around 4ft to 7ft in that stretch, but it’s blown out, lumpy, and choppy. It’s pretty rough out there.

A couple of moments that had a little potential without ever delivering: Wednesday afternoon the 19th of August saw a very long-period 16-second SSW groundswell at just 2ft, but with a light cross-offshore breeze, it cleaned up. Unfortunately, the size is tiny. Then again on Monday the 24th of August morning, a 13-second SSW groundswell at 4ft, with a gentle cross-shore breeze – still marginal.

The only real standout in the whole stretch, and I mean the only one, comes late on Wednesday the 26th of August. That afternoon we’ve got a south swell pulsing in at 4ft, with a period of 21 seconds. That’s an incredibly long period groundswell. Combined wave energy is very strong at 1794. For a point break like Baggies, that kind of very long period energy can draw some beautiful, lined-up sets. But the catch is a fresh northeast wind at 19 mph, which is cross-shore and will make it lumpy. It’s marked as marginal.

Then Thursday morning the 27th of August brings a short-period, 8-second northeast swell at 7ft, with moderate cross-shore 16 mph wind. At 7ft, that’s getting a bit serious for beginners. Combined energy is strong at 1171, but again the quality is off.

After that, the last few days of August and the 31st are mostly poor, with a mix of onshore winds and light rain. The best potential of the whole outlook for Baggies is honestly that Wednesday the 26th of August afternoon, with the very long-period groundswell. It’s a true stand-out for energy, but you’ll be dealing with that lumpy cross-chop. If you’re out there, it’s for the session, not the perfection.

This is a fairly consistent spot, and it tends not to stay poor for ages, but this window is a frustrating one. No clear banger days.

Stay hopeful,

Rusty.

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