Baggies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what Baggies has got lined up for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a rough start, but there’s a real treat if you can wait.

The first few days are nothing to write home about. Monday the 17th has some chest-high waves, about 5ft from the east, but that NE cross-breeze is gonna mess up the surface a bit. Water temp’s around 70°, which is pretty normal for this time of year – no big anomaly there. The wave energy is moderate (554), and it’s just not clean enough. The afternoon pushes a bit more energy (1177), but it’s still marginal.

Tuesday the 18th through Saturday the 22nd is a write-off. The wind is mostly cross-onshore and lumpy, with gusts up to 22 mph. Thursday morning the 20th has a 7ft south swell, but that SSW wind is howling, making it a choppy, messy mess. Not worth paddling out. Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th have some longer-period groundswell (14-15 seconds) at about 4ft and 3ft, with light ESE wind on Sunday morning offering a clean-ish window. The surf is still marginal, but those long-period lines will work nicely at a point break like Baggies if you time it right.

Mid-week hits a lull with tiny waves and poor conditions through to the end of August. The 30th of August has a 10ft south swell, but the period is only 9 seconds – it’ll be lumpy and junky, plus the wind is onshore. Pass.

Now, here’s the moment you’ve been waiting for. Tuesday the 1st of September, Baggies comes alive. We’ve got a solid 7ft south swell with a 16-second period – that’s serious groundswell energy (1990 – strong wave energy). The wind is glassy – ESE at 3 mph. That means clean, peeling waves. For a point break, that long-period swell is going to hold its shape perfectly – fast, hollow, and proper. The waves are a bit big for beginners, but for the experienced crew, this is the standout of the whole outlook. Crowds can show up sometimes, but on a day like that, it’s worth fighting for a spot.

The rest of that week fades again as winds pick up and swell drops. By the 31st of August, there’s an 12ft swell with 13-second period, but that SSW wind at 22 mph will ruin it – more of a kitesurfing day than a paddling one.

So, bottom line: the next week and a half is pretty rough, but that Tuesday the 1st of September morning session is the one to aim for. Long-range promise, but you know how it goes.

Rusty.

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