Baggies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at Baggies.

Right off the bat, the next week and a half is a tough one. From Tuesday the 8th of September right through to the middle of the month, the wind is a constant headache. Mostly cross-shore from the NE, often fresh, and it’s kicking up lumpy, cross-chop that ruins any chance of a clean wave. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t show up until Thursday the 10th of September afternoon. The swell bumps up to 8ft from the ENE, with a short 8-second period, and the wind drops to almost nothing. It’s a light cross-onshore, but just small ripples. The combined energy hits 1239 (moderate), so there’s some push, but it’s still a marginal call with questionable tide. Not a standout, but the best of a rough patch.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Friday the 11th through to Sunday the 13th, it’s all poor surf conditions with moderate to fresh cross-shore winds. Monday the 14th is a write-off with a strong breeze from the NE. Tuesday the 15th brings some rain and thunderstorm risk, but the swell stays around 7ft from the ENE, still short-period and messy.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Friday the 18th of September, the swell really starts to build. The morning shows 8ft from the SSE with a 9-second period, and by the afternoon it’s 10ft from the SE with a 9-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 2133 (strong). The wind is light and cross-onshore, almost glassy. This is a big, powerful swell, but at 10ft, it’s strictly for experts. The direction is SE, which is a touch off the optimum SE for Baggies, but it’s still a point break, so it should handle that size and period well. The crowd factor is “sometimes” – so you might get a few out, but it’s not a circus.

Saturday the 19th of September is a letdown. The swell is still 10ft from the ESE, but the wind swings to a fresh SSW cross-onshore, turning it lumpy and ugly. Sunday the 20th is similar, with a moderate cross-onshore. By Monday the 21st, the swell drops to 8ft from the S, with a short 8-second period, and the wind is cross-shore from the NE. It’s a moderate cross-chop, but the energy is still decent at 1140 (moderate).

The best on offer is clearly Friday the 18th of September afternoon. That 10ft SE swell with light, almost offshore wind is the standout. It’s big, it’s powerful, and it’ll bend around that point. If you’re an expert, that’s your window. For everyone else, the rest of the forecast is a struggle against the wind.

Rusty.

Read more