Baggies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks at Baggies are going to test your patience. This is a point break that’s exposed to the swell, and the guidance says it’s fairly consistent, but the forecast is hammering it with cross-shore winds and messy conditions for most of the period.

Right now, the water’s sitting at 70°, which is spot-on average for this time of year. That’s about the only thing that’s normal.

For the first few days, through the 27th and into the 28th, we’ve got some south swell pushing in at 6 ft and 5 ft with a 13-14 second period. That’s decent groundswell energy—the combined energy is reading 1341 and 1283, which is strong—but the northeast wind is blowing 22 mph cross-shore, and it’s choppy. The surf is there, but it’s a mess. Not worth the paddle.

Friday afternoon the swell swings around to the ENE and drops to an 8-second period—that’s short-period windswell, and it’s still cross-shore and lumpy. Saturday looks bigger, pushing 10 ft on the afternoon, but that’s with a 25 mph cross-shore breeze. That’s not surf, that’s a washing machine. If you’re a kite surfer, that might look interesting. For a paddle surfer, save your energy.

Sunday and Monday ease off a bit—5 ft down to 4 ft—but the wind swings cross-onshore and it stays choppy. Still poor. Tuesday the 1st of September drops to under 3 ft in the morning, and the energy tanks to 153. That’s weak. The afternoon bumps back up to 6 ft but it’s a 6-second period—basically just wind chop.

The middle of the week stays poor. Wednesday the 2nd has a marginal window in the afternoon with 5 ft south swell and a 7-second period, but the wind is still cross-shore. You’d be surfing slop. Thursday the 3rd brings more cross-onshore wind and rain, and that’s where it gets interesting—but not in a good way.

On Friday the 4th of September, the bottom drops out. We’re looking at 21 ft of SSE swell with a 13-second period, and the combined energy is off the charts at 14348. That’s a huge, powerful groundswell. But the wind is 28 mph cross-onshore, and it’s messy. This is not a paddle-surf day. This is a “stand on the cliff and watch” day. Unless you’re an expert with a death wish, you stay out of that.

Saturday the 5th is still big—15 ft to 13 ft with 12-second period, and the energy is still strong at 5532 and 4454—but again, cross-onshore wind ruins it. Sunday the 6th drops to 10 ft and we finally get a clean window, but it’s with a strong 28 mph cross-offshore breeze. That’s a tricky wind for a point break—it’ll be blown-out and lined up wrong.

From the 7th onwards, the sizes back off but the quality doesn’t come back. You get 7 ft to 8 ft ENE windswell with 8-second periods, and it’s messy or marginal at best. The light wind window on the morning of the 9th of September—with 8 ft ENE swell—might be the closest thing to a surfable option, but it’s still cross-onshore and short-period, and the energy is moderate at best.

Honestly, through the whole 16-day window, there is no standout day. No day where I’d say, “drop everything and go.” The closest thing to a promising window is the 6th of September when it’s big and clean for a moment, but that’s only for experts with a strong cross-offshore wind to deal with. For the rest of us, it’s a long, flat, choppy stretch.

Hang in there. The swell is there, the wind just won’t cooperate. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it. But for now, I’d be doing something else with my time.

Rusty.

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