Baggies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got coming up for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a bit of a slow start and a whole lot of waiting for things to line up. The surf doesn't really get into a solid groove until the first week of August, and even then, it’s mostly a game of marginal conditions with the odd window of clean lines. The biggest standout is tucked away towards the end of the second week, but we’ll get to that.

Baggies (a point break, exposed to the SE) is the only game in town, so that’s where our focus stays. Right now, from Thursday the 30th of July through Saturday the 2nd of August, we’ve got a persistent cross-shore wind messing things up. Swell is there – pumping 7ft to 10ft from the SSE with moderate energy (926 to 2486) – but those 22 mph cross breezes are tearing the surface to bits. It’s lumpy cross-chop, and honestly, not worth the paddle.

Now, Sunday the 2nd of August is the first real glimmer. Morning sees a light 6 mph cross-shore with an 8ft SE swell, 11-second period (that’s a nice groundswell), and moderate energy (1761). The afternoon gets even better – glassy offshore 3 mph winds from the SSE, with a 8ft SE swell. That’s clean, that’s lined up, and for a spot that can get a bit of a crowd sometimes, this is the session to aim for. Still marginal on the charts, but the best of this first week.

Monday the 3rd drops off quickly. Swell backs off to 6ft from the ESE, winds go back to a light cross-shore. It’s ridable but nothing to write home about. From Tuesday the 4th through to Saturday the 8th of August, it’s mostly small, weak, and messy. Swell dips below 3ft at times with short 6-second periods and low energy (244 to 348). The cross-shore winds are moderate to fresh, just keeping the surface grotty. A few windows on the 5th with 6ft and 6ft ENE swells, but still cross-shore wind.

Then, on Saturday the 8th of August, the afternoon brings a bit of hope. A 8ft ENE swell (period still just 7 seconds) with a cross-offshore breeze and clean conditions. It’s not big, but it’s clean and the energy is moderate (577). Could be a quiet little session.

The second week is where the real size shows up, but with a caveat. Monday the 10th of August sees a massive 12ft SSW swell roll in with a 12-second period and very strong energy (3930). Problem is, the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore. That’s a washing machine. Too big for most, and blown out. Not one for the paddle.

The real standout is Tuesday the 11th of August. We get a 7ft S swell, 14-second period – that’s very long-period, pure groundswell. Light 6 mph NE cross-shore wind in the morning, energy is strong (3444). This is the kind of swell that will wrap into a point like Baggies beautifully, offering long, powerful lines. The period is so long it will break a bit straight on a beach, but on a point? This is prime. Definitely the best day of the whole outlook. Crowds are possible, but the quality will be worth sharing it for.

The rest of that week holds onto some solid S swells, with the 13th and 14th of August showing a drop in period and a shift to NE wind, keeping things marginal and a bit messy.

Water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing wild going on there.

So, bottom line: Sunday the 2nd and Tuesday the 11th of August are your two circled dates. Sunday for clean, manageable waves, and Tuesday for that long-period S groundswell with light winds – that’s the one.

Rusty

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