Baggies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got for the next 16 days. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, and you’re going to have to pick your moments.

First off, it’s gonna be a slow start. There’s nothing worth paddling out for on Monday the 14th or even through to Tuesday the 15th – those conditions are just plain ugly with strong cross-shore winds and choppy, messy surf. You’re looking at a gap right at the beginning of the period with no real recommendations. Things start to look a little more interesting by Thursday the 17th, but you’ve gotta be patient.

Now, the main event, the spot to circle on your calendar, is Baggies. This is a point break that’s fairly consistent, exposed to the swell, and happy with an easterly to southeasterly direction. The water temp is 69°, which is about 1° cooler than the long-term average – nothing too wild, pretty normal for this time of year.

The real standout window for Baggies is Thursday morning the 17th. We’ve got a 5 ft swell coming from the east with a 10-second period. That’s a nice, clean groundswell with good energy for the size (606 combined energy – moderate). The wind is light and cross-offshore from the southwest, which is going to leave the surface glassy and clean. It’s not a huge day, but for a point break, that combo is prime. Just be aware, it’s not a beginner wave.

Now, if you’re after some serious size, you gotta look at Friday the 18th. The morning sees the swell jump to 12 ft from the east-southeast, with a 9-second period and combined energy of 3405 – that’s strong to very strong wave energy. The wind is light and cross-off again, so the surface should be clean. But listen, that’s 12 ft. This is for experienced surfers only. It’ll be a big, powerful wave. The afternoon drops a little to 10 ft, still solid, and shifts more southeasterly. That Friday morning might be the pick of the whole run for the big-wave crew, but it’s not for the faint of heart.

As we move into the weekend and next week, things get messier with onshore and cross-shore winds. But Monday the 21st afternoon gives us a big bump of 13 ft from the south-southwest with a 10-second period. Again, huge energy (2985 combined), and clean cross-offshore wind. It’s another expert-only call, and it’s a week out, so keep an eye on it.

After that, the surf settles back down, but it gets tough to find a clean window. There are a few marginal days, but nothing that screams “go now.” The last week of the period is a lot of small, lumpy, or blown-out conditions.

The Standout: The clean, offshore, moderate-sized swell on Thursday morning the 17th at Baggies. The combination of light cross-offshore wind and a nice long-period groundswell is going to be the most user-friendly, high-quality session. For the bigger crew, Friday morning the 18th is the big day, but it’s a serious beast.

Stay sharp, and pick your days wisely.

- Rusty

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