Baggies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for our local zone.

The next week and a half is a bit of a mixed bag, with some real junk early on, but there’s a couple of windows that’ll get the heart pumping. Overall, the pattern starts rough, cleans up for a real sweet spot mid-week, then gets messy again before a possible late-summer pulse at the very end.

First up, the only real stand-out in the whole 16-day window is Baggies. This is a classic point break setup, and it’s exposed to the swell. The early days are a write-off. Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th August are a total mess – strong winds, crappy cross-off and cross-on conditions, with the swell all over the place. The energy is weak to moderate (203 to 338), and the scores are just not there. Monday 10th is properly ugly – a big 10ft S swell hits, but with a strong 25 mph SSW wind, it’s a full-on washing machine with combined energy roaring up to 1574. That’s some serious power, but it’s a messy, dangerous paddle for all but the most experienced. Definitely not for beginners, and more of a kite-surfing show than a surfing one.

But then… hold onto your board. Wednesday 12th August morning shows a real shift. The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph SSE breeze, blowing straight offshore. The swell is a solid 8ft from the SE, with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is a strong 1284. This is the juice. The conditions are described as “unknown,” but with offshore wind and that much energy, it’s going to be a heavy, powerful wave. This is expert territory – over 8ft, so leave the foamie at home. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Thursday 13th August is the real gem. Morning glass – 3 mph S wind, dead calm. The swell is a very surfable 6ft from the ESE, period 9 seconds, with a combined energy of 553. This is the sweet spot. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions,” and with that glassy surface, Baggies is going to be an absolute dream. This is the pick of the whole forecast. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have a few others in the water, but it’ll be worth it. The afternoon holds up clean too with a light cross-off.

After that, it’s a slow decline. Friday 14th and Saturday 15th get chewed up by a strong NE wind, turning the ocean into a lumpy, cross-shore mess. The swell drops to 3ft to 6ft, but the quality is poor. Sunday 16th is a write-off again with strong cross-on winds.

The second week (from 17th August onwards) is a bit of a lottery. There’s a persistent cross-shore NE wind, and the swell is mostly small and weak. A few days like Monday 17th have a 3ft E swell with a long 11-second period, but the energy is low (283 to 383) and the wind kills it. It’s a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions. The only flicker of hope is right at the end of the forecast. Saturday 22nd August afternoon shows a 8ft S swell building, with a combined energy of 1102, and a gentle breeze. Then Sunday 23rd August morning has a big 8ft SSW swell with a period of 10 seconds and a massive combined energy of 2486. The wind is a gentle NE cross-shore. This is a promising, long-range hint of something good, but it’s two weeks out, so keep your expectations in check. That’s a lot of juice, but that cross-shore wind could still mess with the shape.

So, bottom line: Thursday 13th August is the absolute day to circle on the calendar. Glassy, clean, good size. If you can’t make that, the Wednesday 12th morning is the next best bet for the brave. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more