Scottburgh Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at the waves on the cards for Scottburgh Point over the next couple of weeks.

The long-range models are showing a real mixed bag. We’ve got a quiet start, a period of serious, powerful swell, and then it fades back out. It’s not going to be a flat spell, but you’ll have to pick your moments. The first few days are a write-off, so don’t even bother waxing up yet. We’re looking at Monday the 16th for the first real sign of life, which is a good few days of waiting.

The opening part of the forecast is all about onshore wind and junk. Monday afternoon is blown out, and Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are tiny and messy. It’s a proper frustrating stretch. The water temp is sitting at 70°, which is about normal for this time of year.

The action really starts to build on Wednesday afternoon. The swell jumps to 6ft, but it’s coming from the east with a short 10-second period, and a strong cross-offshore wind. The energy jumps to a moderate 622, but the quality is still poor. Thursday is the first day that looks like it might have something. A 5ft east swell with a light cross-shore breeze on the morning tide is marginal, but the afternoon is where it gets interesting. The wind goes offshore and the swell bumps up to 5ft. The energy is strong at 911, and the forecast says "expect very good surf conditions." This looks like the first proper chance to get wet, but it’s still early days.

We then get a real pulse of energy. Friday sees a rapid jump in size to 12ft from the southeast. The energy readings are massive – 1955 in the morning and 2361 by the afternoon. However, the wind is all over the place, and it's not looking clean. The period is a short 9 seconds, so it’s going to be a lumpy, powerful mess. This is big and raw, not for the faint-hearted. By Saturday, the swell is still huge at 12ft, but strong onshore winds ruin it completely. It’s blown out and choppy.

Sunday drops a bit in size to 6ft from the east-southeast, but the wind is still onshore, making it poor. So, we’re looking at a few days of solid swell with terrible conditions. It’s frustrating to watch.

The first week closes out with a massive change on Monday the 23rd. The wind swings offshore and it's fresh, blowing 22 mph. The swell is a solid 10ft from the southwest with a short 7-second period. The energy is strong at 1347, and it will be clean and offshore, but that short period will make it tricky. The afternoon is a different story. The swell explodes to 16ft from the southwest with an 11-second period and a near-gale cross-offshore wind. The energy reading is a massive 5550, which is some serious, heavy water. This is not a day for the average surfer. It looks more like a session for the big-wave chargers or, honestly, more interesting for the kite crew. It’s just too much for a paddle.

The following week starts to settle down. Tuesday the 24th is still sizeable at 7ft, but the conditions are average. By Thursday the 26th, we’re down to 4ft with a cross-offshore breeze and the energy is moderate at 609. This is a better prospect. But the standout of the second week is Thursday afternoon. The wind drops to a glassy 3 mph, the swell is a clean 3ft from the south with a nice 11-second period. The forecast calls for "very good surf conditions". This looks like the best, cleanest wave of the entire run, and a proper reward for your patience.

After that, the swell starts to fade away. Friday drops back to under 3ft, and the wind turns onshore again. The weekend is looking small and junky, and by early the next week, we’re back down to ankle-biters. A long-period south-southwest groundswell shows up around the 29th, building to 4ft, but the onshore wind is back, so it’ll be messy.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a mix of flat junky days and then a few days of oversized, blown-out swell. The real gem in the rough is that Thursday afternoon, the 26th of September, when the ocean finally lays down. It’s a promising window, but it’s far out, so we’ll have to see how it shapes up. Keep an eye on the charts.

Rusty out.

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