Cabarita Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, looking at the next few weeks for Cabarita.

Alright, for a point break that’s known to be a bit of a learner's paradise, Cabarita’s got a pulse but it’s not gonna be a non-stop party. The water’s sitting at about 69.3°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We kick off on Saturday the 25th, and that first morning is a real little gem. You’ve got a clean 3.0ft of groundswell rolling in from the southeast with a long 16-second period, giving it some real push. Combined energy is a solid moderate 720, and with a light S breeze keeping it cross-off, it’s going to be clean and fun. Those longer period swells can sometimes make a point break like this really line up nicely, with good shape and those long lulls between sets making the paddle out a breeze. That’s the standout.

Things get a bit messy after that. That Saturday afternoon and into Sunday the 26th, the wind swings onshore or cross-on, and the quality drops off fast. A small 3.3ft swell with a short 10-second period and only moderate energy (225) will have you scratching for a wave. Sunday morning is worth a look if you’re desperate, but it’s nothing to write home about. The real theme here is a long stretch of average to poor conditions from the 26th through to the 30th. There’s a patchy run of small, weak surf with light glassy moments on Tuesday the 28th morning (2.3ft, 9-sec period, 116 energy) and Wednesday the 29th morning (1.6ft, 7-sec period, energy only 37), but it’s barely a ripple.

Then Thursday the 30th sees a bit more size, but it’s a mixed bag. Morning brings 5.2ft of short-period (6 seconds) swell from the south, and while the wind is cross-off, the energy is moderate (219) and the quality is marginal. That afternoon the swell jumps to 7.9ft, but with a period of only 8 seconds and a strong 15.5 mph wind, it’s gonna be a big, bumpy mess – really only for the experienced if they’re desperate, and even then the quality is questionable. That trend of choppy, windy surf with moderate energy carries right through the first week of August. You’ll see consistent 4.3ft to 5.2ft swells, but the wind is a constant 12.4 to 18.6 mph cross-off, which just keeps things lumpy.

Now, looking into the second week, things get a little more interesting but still uncertain. Saturday the 8th of August forecasts a solid 9.8ft of swell! The combined energy reading is a massive 1397, indicating very strong wave energy. But here’s the catch: the period is a short 8 seconds, meaning a wind swell. That much size, with that short a period, and a cross-shore wind, is gonna be raw and powerful. That’s expert territory only, and even then, it’s a wildcard. The Sunday the 9th is similar, with 7.2ft of swell and energy at 1146, but again, the short period and onshore leaning wind might make it more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session.

For the average surfer, the clear standout is that Saturday morning, July 25th. It’s small but clean, with that lovely long-period groundswell from the southeast, which is exactly what this point break wants. The water’s average, the crowds at Cabarita are often there, but for that one session, it’ll be worth sharing the lineup for. Everything else in the 16-day window is a game of percentages, with most days being a "wait for it" scenario.

Keep it salty.

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