Rainbow Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, we’ve got a bit of a wild ride ahead over the next couple of weeks. The first few days are a no-go unless you’re into getting pounded, but if you can wait, there’s a window of clean, manageable surf for the patient ones.

The forecast kicks off on Wednesday, 15 July, but don’t get excited. First thing in the morning, Rainbow Bay is seeing a tiny 0.3ft wave from the ESE with a weak 11 units of energy. It’s poor. By the afternoon, the swell jumps to 6ft from the S, but with a short, choppy 6-second period and 278 energy, it’s still messy and not worth a paddle. Thursday, 16 July, gets real. We’re looking at 12ft on the morning from the SSE, with a massive 1540 energy units. That’s strong, but it’s a stormy, dangerous brew with storms about and strong offshore winds. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s a battle. The swell stays big and rough all the way through Friday, 17 July, and into Saturday, 18 July, with 13ft and energy cracking 4000. The wind is howling offshore at 25 mph, making it clean but absolutely impossible to paddle into. This is not a surf session; it’s survival. The trend continues through Sunday, 19 July, and Monday, 20 July, with 13ft from the SE and ESE, still with strong winds and huge energy. Honestly, for a sheltered point like Rainbow Bay, this is more of a kite-surfing spectacle than a paddle session.

The real standout comes on Wednesday, 22 July. The morning sees the swell dropping to a much friendlier 6ft from the E, with a 10-second period and 712 energy. The wind is a gentle offshore from the S at 9 mph, making for clean, glassy conditions. Rainbow Bay is a sheltered SE-facing point, and this E swell is a sweet match for the banks. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no wetsuit drama. Crowds are often a factor here, so expect company, but for a Wednesday morning, it’ll be worth it. This is the best on offer—clean, manageable, and fun. The energy is moderate, and the wave shape should be solid.

On Thursday, 23 July, the morning is even better for the mellower crew, with 5ft from the E, 10-second period, and 466 energy. The wind is light at 6 mph from the SSE, glassy and clean. It’s a quieter, more relaxed day. Friday, 24 July, holds similar 5ft waves in the morning, with a moderate offshore wind keeping it tidy. But by the afternoon, it gets a bit ordinary.

Switching to Saturday, 25 July, the swell picks up again to 8ft on the morning from the SSE, with 910 energy. The wind is gentle offshore, so it’s clean, but that’s a solid size for a point break—still good for intermediates who are comfortable. The afternoon jumps to 10ft, which is pushing into expert territory. The energy is moderate-strong, and the SSE swell works well here.

The final days from Sunday, 26 July, to Wednesday, 30 July, see plenty of smaller, surfable waves between 3ft and 6ft, but the energy drops off, and the conditions are ordinary. The 27th of July has a nice 4ft wave with a 12-second period from the E, which is worth a look, but it’s not a standout.

So, the takeaway: if you want the cleanest, most fun waves, get your board wet on Wednesday, 22 July, in the morning. Thursday, 23 July, is a close second for a more relaxed session. The big stuff from the 16th to the 20th is for the thrill-seekers or the kite crew. Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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