Rainbow Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for Rainbow Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’re in a bit of a flat spell. The first few days – Sunday the 9th through to Wednesday the 12th – are pretty much a write-off. You’ve got tiny, weak waves and the wind is either on it or cross-onshore, keeping things messy. Not worth paddling out for. The combined energy is weak, hanging around the 70s to low 200s.

Things start to look a little more interesting from Thursday the 13th. The morning goes glassy with a light offshore breeze, but the swell is only 2ft from the east with a 9-second period. It’s clean but small. The afternoon picks up a touch with a 3ft south-southeast swell, but the wind swings to a 15 mph cross-offshore, which is still clean enough but a bit strong.

Now, Friday the 14th is where the first real pulse shows up. We get a solid 7ft swell from the south, with a period of 9 seconds, and a clean moderate offshore wind out of the south at 12 mph. The combined energy jumps to 1326, which is strong. The morning session looks excellent – the south swell direction is right in the pocket for the point, and offshore wind will have it peeling nicely. The afternoon drops off a bit to 6ft and a cross-offshore breeze, but still rideable.

Saturday the 15th backs off to 4ft from the south-southeast, but we still have clean offshore winds. It’s ordinary but surfable. Sunday the 16th is similar, with the swell dropping to 3ft by the afternoon and the wind staying offshore. It’s small and clean, but not a standout.

We then hit a bit of a lull through Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th, with some rain and stormy conditions. The swell builds again on Tuesday afternoon, hitting 8ft from the east-southeast, but the wind is cross-offshore and the conditions are described as marginal. The energy is strong again at 1321, but the quality isn’t there for a clean ride.

The real standout window opens up from Wednesday the 19th through to Friday the 21st. Wednesday morning brings 5ft from the east with a moderate offshore wind – clean and good. By Thursday the 20th, we’ve got an 8ft east swell with a 10-second period, offshore wind at 12 mph, and combined energy over 1200. That’s proper groundswell, and with the point setup, it’ll handle the longer period well. The waves will have shape and power. Friday the 21st is a special one – glassy conditions in the morning, with a 7ft east swell and a 10-second period. The combined energy is 941, which is moderate to strong. That’s the pick of the whole run: clean, lined-up, and powerful. The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-onshore bump, so get out early.

Saturday the 22nd still has size – 8ft east swell with an 11-second period – and a clean cross-offshore breeze in the morning. The energy is high at 1270. The afternoon gets choppy with a strong cross-onshore, so again, mornings are your friend.

From Sunday the 23rd onward, the swell drops back to 7ft and smaller, with cross-shore or cross-onshore winds. It’s still got some size, but the wind kills the quality. Monday the 24th is similar – 6ft to 6ft, cross-shore breeze, and a bit of chop.

So, the bottom line: the first week is mostly a dud. The real action kicks off on Friday the 14th with a good south swell, but the absolute standout is Friday the 21st – glassy morning, 7ft east swell at 10 seconds, clean offshore wind. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. Thursday the 20th is a close second, with similar size and clean offshore wind. Rainbow Bay is a point break, sheltered from the south-east, so these east swells with a south wind are right in its wheelhouse. Keep in mind that crowds are often an issue here, but if you’re there at dawn on the 21st, you’ll have it to yourself for a bit.

Water temp is around 69°, which is about normal for this time of year – nothing out of the ordinary there.

Stay frothy,
Rusty

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