Rainbow Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into what Rainbow Bay is serving up over the next couple of weeks.

Right from the start, we’ve got a solid pulse of swell, but it’s not for the faint of heart. The standout window is the first few days, but you’ll need to be a strong surfer to handle it. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing special.

We kick off on Thursday 16 July with a solid SSE swell pushing 10ft, rising to 12ft by the afternoon. The period is 9 seconds, so it’s a bit of a windswell mix, but the energy is massive – hitting 1524 in the morning and cranking up to 2168 by the afternoon. The wind is offshore from the south, but it’s a fresh to strong breeze, so while it’s clean, it’s going to be a battle to paddle into. This is expert territory, no doubt.

Friday 17 July drops a little, with 8ft SSE swell in the morning dropping to 7ft by the afternoon. Still offshore, still clean, but the energy is still moderate to high (723 and 561). It’s a step down in size, but still a challenging paddle for most.

The real heavy hitter shows up on Saturday 18 July – a solid 13ft SSE swell all day, with a combined energy of 2754 and 2707. The wind is a strong offshore from the south, so the waves will be holding up well, but again, this is big, powerful stuff. Only for the experienced crew.

Sunday 19 July stays big, with 13ft to 15ft swell from the SE, and the energy is even higher at 3293. The wind is still strong offshore. This is the peak of the run, and it’s going to be a washing machine for anyone not comfortable in heavy waves.

Monday 20 July sees a slight drop to 12ft, but the wind shifts to a cross-offshore, so the face will be a bit messier. Still a big day for the strong paddlers.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The real highlight for the crew who want quality without the mayhem is Tuesday 21 July. The swell drops to 8ft in the morning, 8ft in the afternoon, winding from the SSE at just 12 mph, offshore and clean. The period stretches to 10 seconds, giving the waves some real shape and energy (1412 and 1135). The forecast is “expect very good surf conditions,” and for a sheltered point like Rainbow Bay, this is the sweet spot. It’s a beginner-friendly size, but still fun for everyone. Just be aware that crowds are often around here.

Wednesday 22 July is still fun, with 6ft easterly swell and a gentle offshore, but the energy drops to 594. Still clean, but losing steam.

From Thursday 23 July onwards, the swell fades fast. By Thursday afternoon, we’re down to 4ft, and the energy is just 243. The wind goes cross-off, and the surf becomes ordinary.

Friday 24 July is a bit of a wildcard – the swell is only 3ft, but the wind goes glassy, with a light WNW breeze in the morning. It’s clean, but barely surfable. The energy is only 143. A good day for a longboard, maybe.

The rest of the run, from 25 July to 31 July, is mostly small, weak, and often messy. The swell hangs around 3ft to 6ft, but the periods are short (6-8 seconds), and the energy is mostly below 300. The wind is often offshore but fresh, so it’s clean but gutless. By 30 July, the wind goes cross-shore, and it’s not worth the paddle.

There’s a gap of about a week of poor to ordinary surf from the 23rd through the end of the month. The last chance for a little bump is 31 July, with 6ft easterly swell and a light cross-shore, but the energy is still only 426 – marginal at best.

So, bottom line: if you’re an expert, jump on the 16th to the 19th for big, powerful, clean waves. For the rest of us, circle Tuesday 21 July – it’s the best all-rounder with clean, fun-sized waves and good shape. After that, it’s a long flat spell.

Rusty.

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