Rainbow Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into the surf outlook for Rainbow Bay. It’s a bit of a rollercoaster over the next couple of weeks, so pay attention.

The overall pattern is simple: a massive pulse of SSE swell hits us mid-week, but it’s all pretty tricky with the wind. Right now, the water temp is sitting at 70°F — that’s bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We jump straight into it on Thursday the 16th. The swell is up, but it’s a big one. We’re looking at 12 ft to 13 ft SSE swell, with a solid 9-second period and a combined energy sitting at 2028 to 2330 (moderate to strong). That’s a heap of water, and with a strong offshore wind from the south, it’ll be clean, but that size is well over 8 ft, so it’s strictly for the experts. The wind is fresh, so it’s not glassy, but it’s offshore, so the face will be clean. Be warned, the guides say this is a marginal call on the tide, so watch the bank.

Friday the 17th drops off a touch, with 8 ft to 8 ft SSE swell, still with a moderate offshore wind, but the energy has dropped to 723 to 674 (weak to moderate). The period is short at 8 seconds, so it will be a bit crumbly. Still, the wind is clean, so it’s okay for a paddle, but not the standout.

Now, Saturday the 18th is the big one. The swell jumps back to 13 ft to 15 ft from the SSE/SE, with a period of 9 to 10 seconds, and the combined energy is massive: 2883 to 3996 (strong to very strong). This is a serious groundswell. The wind is strong offshore, which means it will be clean, but the guide says it’s “hard to paddle into.” That’s the truth. This is a big, powerful, expert-only wave. If you’re not a pro, stay on the beach and watch.

Sunday the 19th continues with 13 ft, but the wind shifts to a cross-offshore, which is still clean but not as good. The energy stays high (2995 to 2894). The period is 9 to 10 seconds. Again, this is a big one.

The surf starts to fade from Monday the 20th, with 12 ft to 10 ft, dropping to 8 ft on Tuesday the 21st. The period is still 10 seconds, but the energy is dropping (2174 down to 1170). The wind is cross-offshore, so it’s clean, but it’s losing its punch.

Wednesday the 22nd brings a shift. We’ve got 5 ft from the east, with a gentle offshore wind. The energy is 461 (weak). The guide says “expect good surf conditions”. This is a sweet spot for the intermediate crowd. It’s far more manageable than the weekend.

From Thursday the 23rd onwards, the surf drops way down. We’re looking at 3 ft to 4 ft for a few days, with very light winds. The energy is pathetic: 287 down to 136. It’s basically flat or mushy. There’s a long gap of poor surf from the 23rd to the 29th. The wind is clean, but there’s just no power.

The end of the month shows a glimmer. On Thursday the 30th, we get a 7 ft South swell, but it’s cross-onshore, so it’s messy. Then finally, on Friday the 31st, we get a 6 ft South swell with a moderate offshore wind, 9-second period, and energy of 823 (moderate). The guide says “expect good surf conditions”. This is the best option in the second week. It’s a clean, punchy wave, about 5 ft to 6 ft, with a solid offshore wind. It’s not the biggest, but it’s the most manageable clean option in the back half of the forecast.

The only true standout is the massive swell on Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th. If you are an expert, that’s your window. The crowd will be a factor at Rainbow Bay, as it’s often busy, but with that size, it might thin out a bit. The longer-range stuff on the 31st is promising, but less certain.

For the beginner, the best bet is the smaller, cleaner day on the 22nd, when the swell is 5 ft and the wind is light.

Rusty out.

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