Black Rocks Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s headed our way for Black Rocks.

We’re in for a bit of a mixed bag, with a slow start this week. The first few days are a write-off, with strong cross-onshore winds and blown-out, messy surf. The sea state is just too rough for a good paddle. The good news is we’ve got a promising run of cleaner conditions shaping up, especially towards the end of the week and into the following weekend.

The water temperature at Black Rocks is sitting at 58°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. That chill will be noticeable on the first decent day.

Monday 10th and Tuesday 11th: Forget it. Strong cross-onshore winds, swelling up to 8 ft, with a combined wave energy rating of 1684 to 2237. It’s a full-on mess. Not for paddling; this kind of setup is more interesting for kite surfing.

Wednesday 12th: A slight improvement. The swell drops to 5 ft with a very long period of 18 seconds. The wind is onshore but light, so it’s not completely blown out. The conditions are marginal, with a combined energy of 2541. This is a long-period groundswell, which can be a bit tricky at a reef break like Black Rocks, but it’s the first sign of something rideable.

Thursday 13th: Still not great. The swell is 7 ft with a long 18-second period, but the wind is cross-shore, creating a bit of chop. A combined energy of 2636, but the overall quality is marginal.

The first real moment of truth comes Friday 14th. Morning sees a 5 ft SSW swell (15-second period) with a light cross-offshore wind from the NW. The conditions are clean. Then in the afternoon, it goes glassy. Swell drops to 5 ft from the WSW, period 14 seconds, and the wind is calm. The water goes flat. This is clean, rideable surf. The combined energy drops to 979, but the quality is there. The best bet of the first week.

Saturday 15th and Sunday 16th: The clean conditions continue. Saturday morning is glassy with a 5 ft WSW swell. Sunday morning has a 4 ft swell with a cross-offshore wind, and Sunday afternoon gets a moderate offshore wind from the WNW, cleaning up a 5 ft swell. These are your best windows for a clean, fun session, with energy levels around 700-1000.

Monday 17th: The window closes. The swell jumps back up to 8 ft, and the wind turns cross-onshore. The quality drops to marginal.

Tuesday 18th: A brief reprieve in the morning with a moderate offshore wind and a 6 ft SW swell. The combined energy is 1038. Clean, but the afternoon turns messy again.

Wednesday 19th to Friday 21st: A full-on blowout. Gale force cross-onshore winds, 34-40 mph, with swell around 6-7 ft. This is a total write-off. The combined energy is high, but the conditions are completely blown out. Kite-surfing territory.

The standout period is Saturday 22nd and Sunday 23rd. This is the real deal.
Saturday 22nd morning is the pick of the whole 16-day forecast. Glassy conditions, a 7 ft SW swell with a very long 17-second period, and a combined wave energy of 2498. The water will be glassy, offering excellent conditions for experienced surfers. This is a long-period groundswell, and at a reef break like Black Rocks, the sets will be powerful and well-shaped. Expect a bit of lull between sets, but the quality will be top-notch.
Sunday 23rd morning is another beauty. Clean, cross-offshore wind, 7 ft SW swell (15 seconds), and a combined energy of 1737. Another excellent session for the more experienced crew.

After that, we tail off into cleaner but smaller surf. The final week (Monday 24th to Tuesday 25th) drops to 4 ft swells with clean, offshore winds, but the energy is lower. It’s still rideable, but not the standout.

Keep an eye on that Saturday 22nd and Sunday 23rd. That’s the one you want to circle on the calendar. The earlier forecasts are solid, but the long-range one is a bit more promising than certain.

Rusty.

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