The Wedge Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Morning crew, Rusty here.

Let's be straight with you—the next couple of weeks at The Wedge are looking pretty locked up and grumpy. This is a breakwater spot that's very sheltered, so it needs everything to line up just right, and for the most part, the ocean’s just not playing ball.

We’ve got a solid gap of poor conditions right through the first stretch. From Monday the 14th all the way through to Saturday the 26th, it’s a real mixed bag of onshore and cross-onshore winds, messy chop, and a lot of "poor surf conditions" flags. The swell’s there at times, but the wind’s wrecking it. Tuesday the 15th sees the energy jump to moderate (537) but it’s lumpy and cross-onshore. Wednesday the 16th actually brings some size—8ft from the SW with a 13-second period (combined energy of 4010, strong). But the cross-off wind is fresh at 35 km/h and the call is still marginal. That’s a lot of power but it’s not going to be clean. To be honest, that size at this sheltered break, with that wind, is more of a washing machine than a surfable wave. And if we're talking about who should be out there—anything over 5ft is pushing it for beginners, and this is way past that. Then Friday the 25th throws a curveball with a brief NW windswell at 8ft but only a 7-second period—that’s short, weak period, and the wind flips cross-on. It’s steep and messy. Not worth paddling out for.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The real glimmer of hope comes after that long stretch of nothing. We’re looking at Sunday the 27th of September. The early call shows the wind finally easing off to a light 10 km/h breeze, cross-off out of the SE, and the water goes glassy. Swell drops to a clean 6ft from the southwest, giving a combined energy of 1197. That’s moderate, but it’s lined up and clean. That’s the standout window. It’s not huge, but the combination of a light offshore breeze and a solid SW groundswell at a 13-second period will make The Wedge start to actually work. Expect good surf conditions—that’s the phrase we’ve been waiting for.

Monday the 28th follows up nicely too. The swell backs off slightly to 5ft, but the wind is still light out of the ESE at 10 km/h, keeping it clean and cross-off. Combined energy dips to 1051, still moderate, and it should be a fun, user-friendly day.

One thing I have to mention—this spot is very sheltered, but the water temperature on Monday the 14th was sitting at 56°F, which is a whopping 5°F colder than normal for this time of year. That’s a serious chill, so if you’re heading out on the 27th or 28th when conditions turn on, you’re going to want the thickest wetsuit, boots, gloves, the whole kit. That’s not a normal September water temp.

Also, note that things fade out again after that. Tuesday the 29th shows a drop in energy to around 392-516, and while the wind goes totally glassy (0 km/h in the morning and a slight 5 km/h in the afternoon), the swell is only 4ft from the SW with a 12-second period. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. The tide and the lack of push will make it mushy.

So, the bottom line: Don’t waste your time this week. The standouts are Sunday the 27th and Monday the 28th of September. That’s when the stars align—clean, glassy, cross-off winds with a solid 6ft SW groundswell. It’s going to be worth the wait. For the rest of it, save your energy.

Remember, when it’s 8ft plus with a strong cross-off, this breakwater setup is better suited to a kite than a paddle board. And with that cold water, you’re gonna feel it.

Stay patient, stay warm.

Rusty out.

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