The Boiler Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down in feet and miles per hour for you.

It’s a rough run coming up at The Boiler. The next two weeks are mostly flat and blown out, with a big quiet stretch right in the middle. From the start of next week through the middle of the second week, there’s basically nothing. But there’s a tiny window of hope at the very end.

Starting Monday 27 July, it’s ugly. The swell is a weak 3ft from the west, with a short, weak period of 6 seconds and a combined energy of just 81 (weak energy). The wind is a messy cross-shore at 12 mph, making it choppy and unrideable. This flat, poor pattern just drags on. By Tuesday 28 July, the swell drops to 2ft, and the energy is down to 35 – barely a ripple. The water temperature is 69°, which is 9° warmer than usual, so very unusual – it’s like a hot tub out there.

We get a brief moment of calm on Friday 31 July morning, with a light northwesterly breeze making things clean, but the swell is only 2ft and weak. Don’t get excited. Then we hit the real dead zone. From Saturday 1 August right through to Saturday 8 August, the swell is flat – consistently 0.7ft to 1.0ft – with combined energy values in the single digits or low teens. The wind is a mess of cross and cross-on, with a few glassy spells on Sunday 2 August morning, but there’s just no ocean energy to work with. It’s a solid week of nothing worth paddling for.

Then, on Sunday 9 August, the charts finally start to show something. The afternoon brings a 4ft swell from the west-southwest, with a period of 11 seconds and a combined energy of 483 (strong wave energy). That’s a real groundswell kicking in. But the wind is a cross-on 15 mph, so it’s going to be messy and choppy again. Not clean.

The real standout, and the only one worth marking on your calendar, comes on Monday 10 August. Morning session at The Boiler sees a 5ft swell from the west-southwest, with a 10-second period and a combined energy of 411 (strong wave energy). The magic is the wind – a light offshore from the north-northwest at 6 mph, making for clean, groomed faces. This is a reef break, so a 10-second period is solid, but it’s a bit inconsistent and crowds are sometimes an issue. With that offshore wind, it’ll be a proper session. The afternoon holds up with 5ft and cross-off winds, still clean. This is the best on offer, but it’s only a 2/10 quality rating, so don’t expect perfection.

That window fades fast. Tuesday 11 August morning goes glassy with a 3ft swell, but it’s weak and the energy is only 149 (moderate). The rest of the week backslides into poor, windy, small conditions.

So, bottom line: the next 10 days are a total loss. The one real chance is the morning of Monday 10 August. Mark it, but keep your expectations adjusted – the Boiler doesn’t often fire this time of year, and the forecast can shift. The water is weirdly warm, so don’t bother with a thick wetsuit.

Rusty.

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