The Boiler Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the outlook for The Boiler over the next sixteen days is a tough one. We’ve got a lot of swell rolling through, but the wind just won’t play ball for clean, surfable waves. It’s a real shame, because the energy is there, but the conditions are making it a write-off for paddle surfing for most of the period.

Right from the start, Monday August 31st, we see a decent amount of swell coming in. The morning has waves around 6 ft from the WSW with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is moderate at 653. But the wind is a cross-off from the WNW at 19 mph, which is keeping things clean, but the overall surf conditions are rated as poor. The water temperature is a very unusual 69°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year by over 4°.

That theme continues for the first week. Tuesday and Wednesday see the swell drop to around 3 ft, but the wind swings cross-on and it gets choppy. There’s a brief pulse of energy on Wednesday afternoon with 6 ft swell (combined energy 228), but with a 22 mph cross-on wind and rain, it’s just messy. Thursday and Friday are more of the same – lumpy and cross-onshore, with fresh winds. The best the first week offers is Saturday September 5th morning: a small 3 ft cross-off swell from the WSW with clean conditions and light winds. The combined energy is weak at 89, so it’s surfable but very ordinary.

Things fall away into the middle of the week. Sunday and Monday are tiny, with the 6th providing a glassy moment in the afternoon but only 1 ft of swell. There’s a spike of energy on Tuesday September 8th, with 5-6 ft swell (combined energy hitting 711 in the afternoon), but the wind is straight cross-on and choppy again. Poor conditions.

The second week doesn’t offer any reprieve. Wednesday September 9th has a fresh cross-on blowing at 22 mph with 3 ft swell. Thursday and Friday see cleaner cross-off winds on smaller, weak swell. The biggest push of the entire forecast comes on Monday September 14th, with 8 ft WSW swell and a combined energy of 1024 – that’s strong wave energy. But it’s under a cross-on wind at 16 mph, making it choppy and poor quality. At that size, it’s only for experts, and the wind ruins it anyway. Tuesday the 15th is similar with 6 ft swell but onshore wind.

Honestly, there’s no standout here. The best call for a surf would be Saturday September 5th morning for a slim chance at a knee-to-waist high clean wave, or maybe Friday September 11th morning which offers clean cross-off winds on a 3 ft, 9-second swell, but the energy is weak (106). For the rest of it, if you’ve got a kite, the consistent cross-onshore winds and decent swell on the bigger days (like September 14th) will look far more interesting than trying to paddle out.

Any real hope is a long way off and uncertain. Hang in there, it tends not to stay this poor forever, and forecasts can always flip.

– Rusty

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