The Boiler Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve had a good look at the charts for the Boiler, and I’m not gonna sugarcoat it—this is a grim stretch ahead. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window with next to nothing worth paddling out for. The only break on the cards is The Boiler, a reef setup that’s inconsistent at the best of times, and unfortunately, this ain’t the best of times.

The water’s sitting at a balmy 69°, which is a whopping 8° warmer than usual for this time of year—very unusual, and it’ll feel like you’re surfing in a bath.

The first real suggestion of any surf doesn’t show up until Wednesday the 5th of August, and even then, it’s a sorry start. We’ve got a 5 ft swell from the WSW, but with a short period of just 7 seconds and a cross-off wind blowing 19 mph, it’s gonna be messy—poor surf conditions, full stop. The combined energy is weak at 163, so don’t get your hopes up. That afternoon gets worse: 5 ft, still short period, and a cross wind at 22 mph making it lumpy. No good.

Thursday the 6th is a bit of a tease. Morning sees a drop to 3 ft from the W, period still short at 6 seconds, but the wind is a gentle cross-off at 9 mph, so it’ll be clean. The energy is a paltry 78. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. The afternoon gets blown out again.

From Friday the 7th through to Tuesday the 11th, it’s basically flat or tiny, with most days showing 0.7 ft to 2 ft and weak energy. The wind windows are poor, with onshore or cross-shore chop. Sunday morning the 9th has a brief moment of glassy conditions on a 2 ft swell, but the energy is only 26—hardly a wave worth chasing.

Things try to tick up a little around Wednesday the 12th of August. The morning has 2 ft from the WSW with a period of 10 seconds, which is a bit longer, but it’s onshore wind and the energy is still just 80. The afternoon sees 3 ft with a moderate cross-shore, and the energy climbs to 121 (moderate), but it’s still a no-go with poor surf quality.

Thursday the 13th brings the biggest swell height of the run so far: 5 ft in the afternoon from the WSW, period 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 322 (moderate). But it’s cross-onshore at 12 mph, making it choppy and poor. Still not worth it.

The best chance in this whole outlook shows up on Sunday the 16th of August. The morning has 6 ft from the WSW, period 7 seconds, with a clean cross-off wind from the NNW at 16 mph. The energy is a solid 334 (moderate). The afternoon is even better: 6 ft, period 8 seconds, same clean cross-off, and energy at 397. This is the standout—it’s the only time the swell gets over 5 ft with clean conditions. But at 6 ft, it’s getting into the “too big for beginners” range, and the short period means it’ll be a bit crumbly and less organized. The reef setup should handle it okay, but don’t expect perfection. The forecast is a week and a half out, so it’s promising but less certain.

After that, Monday the 17th through to Thursday the 20th, it’s back to poor surf with cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions, dropping to 1.0 ft to 3 ft. The energy falls off a cliff.

So, the honest truth: there’s only one real standout in this 16-day window, and that’s Sunday the 16th of August. The rest is a long gap of nothingness. The Boiler is inconsistent, and this run is a perfect example of why. Keep an eye on that Sunday, but don’t hold your breath. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s lean pickings.

Rusty.

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