The Boiler Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty, and I'm looking at the forecast for The Boiler, and straight up, it's a tough watch. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a write-off for a decent paddle. The water's sitting at 68°, which is a solid 7° warmer than it should be for this time of year – that's a proper anomaly, feels like we're in the tropics.

The first few days from Tuesday the 25th through to the end of the month are a complete no-go. Swell is tiny, mostly under 3 ft, and the wind is all over the shop – cross, cross-on, and messy. The combined energy is weak (23 on Tuesday morning) and it's just a lumpy, choppy mess. Really poor.

We get a bit of a pulse on the weekend of the 29th and 30th, with the swell pushing 8 ft on Saturday morning, but the wind is howling at 25 mph from the WSW, ripping straight onshore. The wave energy is strong (711) but it's blown out and messy. That's more of a kite-surfing scene than a paddle surfer's dream.

The first week of September is more of the same: strong winds, big chop, and the swell sticking around the 6 ft to 8 ft mark. The combined energy gets into the high hundreds (up to 959), but it's all cross-on and messy. The only real glimmer comes on the morning of Friday the 4th of September. We've got a clean 3 ft swell from the west with a gentle cross-offshore breeze. It's surfable, but it's only a 'so-so' kind of wave – the energy is a modest 102. It's a window, but nothing to get excited about.

Then there's a big one brewing for the 5th and 6th of September. The 5th of September morning sees a 8 ft swell from the WSW with a period of 9 seconds, and clean cross-offshore winds. The combined energy jumps to 938, and by the afternoon it's up to a massive 1451 with a 10-second period. That's a powerful, long-period groundswell, which will be lining up well at a reef. The problem is the wind, while clean, is a fresh breeze at 22 mph, so it's gonna be a bumpy ride. Still, this is the standout – the best on offer. It's a serious swell, over 8 ft, so only for the experienced crew. The direction is WSW, which is right in the optimum zone for The Boiler.

The following Monday the 7th of September drops off a bit, with 4 ft to 4 ft, but it's got a very long 12-second period and a strong cross-shore wind. The energy is still solid (478-503), but that long period will make it a bit tricky at a beach break – it'll be better for a reef or point.

The final hope is on the 9th of September. The morning has a clean 4 ft swell from the WSW, period of 11 seconds, and a light cross-offshore breeze. The wave energy is 454, and the conditions are described as clean. That's a solid, fun size for an intermediate, with good shape from the long period. This is the second best on offer, but it's a long way off.

So, to wrap it up: the entire window is pretty grim. The standout is definitely the 5th of September, with that huge, powerful swell, but it's for experts only. The 9th of September morning is a decent backup. Other than that, you're better off cleaning the wax off your board and waiting for a better run. Forecasts can change, but right now, it's a lean spell.

Rusty.

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