Caswell Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about Caswell Bay. I’ve looked at the whole 16‑day window, and I’ve got to be straight with you – there’s nothing here that’s gonna get me calling in sick for work. The whole period is a bit of a write‑off for decent paddle surfing. We’ve got a massive gap of poor or marginal conditions from now all the way through. The first week is basically a no‑go, and the second week doesn’t offer much relief either.

The first record on the 3rd of September (Thursday morning) shows a weak 5‑foot swell from the WSW with a period of only 8 seconds and a cross‑onshore wind of 16 mph. The combined swell energy is a moderate 252, but the wind just ruins it – it’s choppy and messy. That’s the story for the first few days: swell hangs around 5 to 7 feet, but the wind is from the WSW, W, or WNW at 16 to 19 mph, all cross‑on or onshore. The water temperature is a notable 68°F, which is 7°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual, but it won’t help the surf quality.

Friday morning the 4th sees a 7‑foot swell from the WSW, but again with a poor 8‑second period and a strong 19 mph cross‑onshore wind. The combined energy jumps to 517 (moderate), but the wind state is “fresh cross‑onshore and lumpy.” Not worth paddling out.

Saturday the 5th drops right off – 3‑foot swell with a 7‑second period and a light cross‑onshore wind. The energy is only 120. By Sunday the 6th, the swell is tiny (2 feet) and the period is a weak 6 seconds. The wind turns cross‑offshore from the ESE at 16 mph, so the surface is clean, but there’s no power to push you.

The first truly interesting moment comes on Monday the 7th of September. The morning shows a 6‑foot swell from the WSW with a long period of 13 seconds – that’s a groundswell with serious energy. The combined energy rating is a massive 2033 (strong to very strong). The wind is cross‑shore from the NW at 16 mph, creating a moderate cross‑chop. The score is a 2 out of 10, called “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” Here’s the thing: that long‑period swell (13 seconds) is going to jack up and break straight at a beach break like Caswell Bay. It’s really more suited to a point or reef. For a beginner spot, this is too big and too powerful. The afternoon stays poor with cross‑onshore wind.

After that, the rest of the week is a mess. Tuesday the 8th has 6‑foot swell but with short 7‑ to 8‑second periods and fresh cross‑onshore winds at 19‑22 mph. The energy is in the 400s, but the surf is lumpy and choppy. Wednesday the 9th drops to 4 feet, still with poor winds. Thursday the 10th is the same story. Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th are slightly smaller but still no good wind.

The second week is even weaker. Sunday the 13th starts with a tiny 2‑foot swell, then a 5‑foot in the afternoon but with a short 6‑second period and cross‑onshore wind. Monday the 14th morning is the best of the whole run: 4‑foot swell from the WSW with a 9‑second period, and a light cross‑offshore breeze from the north at 6 mph. The water is clean, and the combined energy is 254 (moderate). The score is a 1, called “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” That’s the closest we get to a session, but it’s still small and ordinary.

Tuesday the 15th morning is glassy with 3‑foot swell and a 9‑second period – the wind is completely calm, 0 mph. The energy is only 129. It’s clean as a whistle, but there’s barely any wave to ride. After that, it’s all downhill: tiny swells (2 feet and below) with periods of 9‑10 seconds, and light to fresh winds, mostly cross‑onshore.

There is no standout in this 16‑day window. The only real highlight is that Monday the 7th morning swell with 2033 energy, but the wind and the break type work against it. For a beginner break like Caswell Bay, anything over 5 feet is too big, and that 6‑foot with a 13‑second period is better left to the experts – and even then, it’s not ideal here. The crowds are listed as “often” at this break, so you’d likely be dealing with company even if the conditions were good.

Honestly, if you’re a paddle surfer, leave the board at home. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddling, given the waves and wind combo. The consistency is “fairly consistent” for swell, but the quality just isn’t there. The forecasts can always change, but right now, there’s not much to get excited about.

Rusty.

Read more