Aberavon Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get the whole picture sorted. The next couple of weeks are pretty flat and grim, to be honest. There’s a whole lot of waiting around for the ocean to wake up. The first bit of any real hope doesn’t show until the very end of the month, and even then, it’s nothing to write home about. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, junky waves for the most part.

The week starts with almost nothing. Sunday, the 16th, has just a tiny 1ft ripple that’s glassy in the morning, but it’s not rideable. The wind picks up, and things get messy and choppy. Monday and Tuesday are the same story – waves around 0.6ft to 4ft, but the wind is cross or cross-onshore, making a mess of everything. The energy is weak, with readings in the low double digits, like 25. It’s not surf, it’s just bump.

Things stay poor through the middle of the week. There’s a bit more size on Wednesday and Thursday, with the swell getting up to 4ft, but the wind is blowing fresh and onshore, making it lumpy and horrible. The energy picks up to a moderate 135 by Thursday, but the quality is just not there. It’s all about the wind, and it’s just not our friend.

Friday the 21st is the first glimpse of something cleaner. The swell drops back to 2ft, and the morning has a light cross-offshore wind, cleaning it up with a 9-second period. It looks clean, but it’s still tiny, too small to really do anything with. The energy is weak at 39. We need more push.

The weekend sees the swell continue to fade. Saturday and Sunday have offshore winds, but the waves are only 0.6ft to 1ft. It’s clean, but flat. There’s just no power in the water, and the energy readings drop to as low as 16. You could almost stand on the sandbar and not get your ankles wet.

The start of the next week is more of the same. Monday the 24th sees a long-period groundswell of 14 seconds, but it’s only 0.3ft. The period is there, but the height isn’t. It’s a tease. All that energy, and nowhere to go. The offshore wind keeps it looking clean, but it’s a total flat spell.

This flatness carries right through until the 27th. There are days with clean conditions and light winds, but the swell stays tiny, around 0.3ft to 0.6ft. The energy is basically non-existent, down to 1 or 2. It’s dead.

Finally, on Friday the 28th, things start to shift. The forecast shows a pulse of swell arriving, lifting the waves to 5ft with a 9-second period from the WSW. The energy jumps significantly to 646, which is the first strong reading we’ve seen all fortnight. The morning wind is a moderate cross-offshore breeze, so it could be clean. This is the standout window. The swell direction matches what Aberavon (Wales) wants, from the SW. The tide and other conditions are questionable, according to the forecast, so it’s not a guarantee, but it’s the only real chance for a wave. With it being over 5ft, it’s not for the faint of heart, but for the experienced surfer, this could be the one to get out for.

After that, things drop off again quickly. Saturday the 29th sees the size fade back down to 2ft, and the wind turns onshore again. The energy drops right back to 68. The chance was brief, and it’s gone.

So, there you have it. A long, flat period with one promising pulse of swell on the 28th. Keep your eyes on that forecast, as it’s our only shot. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Rusty.

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