Aberavon Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, switching to feet and inches for you. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards.

To be straight with you, the next fortnight is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of flat or near-flat conditions with almost nothing to get excited about. The pickings are incredibly slim, and honestly, the first real suggestion of any surf doesn’t show up until the very end of the month. It’s a dry spell, and for this area, that’s not unheard of, but it still stings.

The water’s hanging in at a warm 69°F, which is a solid 9°F above the norm for this time of year. That’s seriously unusual, like having a tropical bath on your doorstep. But with the swell missing, it’s just a tease.

Let’s run through the window. From Thursday 16 July right through to the morning of Monday 27 July, it’s all undersized. We’re looking at waves mostly between 0.3 ft and 0.7 ft. There are a few mornings with glassy conditions, like Friday 17 July and Saturday 18 July, but there’s no power behind them. The combined energy readings are all in single digits (1 to 7) – that’s basically flat. You’d be floating around on a longboard, maybe catching a ripple, but it’s not surfing.

There’s a very brief uptick on the afternoon of Saturday 25 July, with a 3 ft swell from the WSW, but the wind swings around to the WSW at 12 mph, making it a chop-fest. Not worth paddling out for.

The first proper sign of life comes on Monday 27 July. The morning shows a 3 ft swell from the WSW, with a period of 5 seconds and a combined energy of 35. The wind is light from the SE, so it’s a cross-shore – messy but not completely blown out. The afternoon pushes the swell to 3 ft, energy up to 45, but the wind is a light cross-onshore. It’s still poor, but it’s at least a wave.

Then on Tuesday 28 July morning, we get a decent window. The swell is 2 ft from the WSW, with a 5-second period, and the wind is a clean cross-offshore from the ENE at 9 mph. That’s the best offshore wind we’ve seen in the whole forecast. The wave comment still says “poor surf conditions,” but the energy is 23 – it’s small, but it might be rideable. The afternoon turns ugly with rain showers and a strong onshore wind, so that morning window is the only real chance.

The standout of the entire forecast, and the only one I’d really call a true option, is the afternoon of Wednesday 29 July. The swell climbs to 3 ft from the WSW, with a 6-second period, and the combined energy hits 131 – that’s actually moderate, the first time we’ve seen a three-digit number. The cross-onshore wind from the W at 12 mph will put some chop on it, but with that much more energy, it might actually offer a few fun waves. It’s not groundswell, and it’s not big, but it’s the best on offer in a very quiet period. If you’re patient, that Wednesday afternoon is your best bet.

After that, the energy drops back down into the double digits through Thursday and Friday, with onshore winds, so the window closes quickly.

Aberavon is a beach-and-reef setup, and with the small, weak swell and persistent onshore winds through much of the period, it’s going to be more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers. But if you’re desperate for a paddle, the Tuesday morning 28 July and Wednesday afternoon 29 July are your only realistic shots.

Hang in there, it’s a quiet patch, but forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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