Aberavon Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Aberavon are a tough watch. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions before anything remotely surfable shows up.

The overall pattern is a bit of a mess. Strong, onshore winds dominate the first week, chewing up the swell and making for choppy, lumpy conditions. The water temp is sitting at 68°, which is a massive 7° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual, a real tropical feel for a Welsh beach.

Things get off to a rough start. Thursday morning and afternoon are a write-off with strong cross-onshore wind from the WSW hitting 15-19 mph, pushing around a short-period 4 ft to 5 ft swell. The energy is weak (180-214), and the water’s choppy. Not worth a second look.

Friday is more of the same – fresh cross-onshore winds and a lumpy 5 ft to 6 ft swell. The combined energy picks up a bit (337-401), but the quality is still poor.

The first real glimmer of hope comes Saturday the 5th. The morning goes glassy with a light WNW breeze. Swell drops right off to 3 ft from the WSW with a short period of 7 seconds and weak energy (85). It’s small, but glassy conditions mean there’s a chance for a few crumbly ones on a longboard if you’re desperate for a paddle. The afternoon turns messy again, so make the most of that morning window.

After that, we’re back into a dry spell. Sunday and the start of the following week are a mix of tiny swell and poor winds. There’s a day on Monday the 7th that gets interesting on paper – a solid 5 ft to 5 ft W swell with a much longer period of 12-13 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 1022, which is moderate, suggesting some real push behind it. But the wind is a problem – cross-shore to cross-onshore at 12-16 mph. It’ll be lumpy and hard to enjoy. Not the standout we need.

The rest of the week stays in the doldrums. Small, weak swell and persistent onshore or cross-shore winds keep things unrideable for the most part. We see a bit of a clean-up from the 10th with some cross-offshore ESE winds, but the swell is tiny and weak (4 ft to 4 ft, period 6-7 seconds).

Honestly, there’s no real standout session in this 16-day window. The best bet is that glassy Saturday morning on the 5th if you’re jonesing for a wave. Beyond that, it’s a waiting game. Keep an eye on the charts, because it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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