Llantwit Major Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

Well, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this forecast is a tough one for surfers. Looking at the whole 16-day window, we’ve got a real dry spell on our hands. Most of the time, the waves are small, the wind is onshore, and the conditions are just plain messy. There’s a significant gap with no real surf to speak of from now all the way through to the start of August. The only flicker of hope comes much later, but it’s a long way off.

Let’s start with the immediate outlook. From Sunday, 26 July right through the next week, it’s a write-off. The swell is tiny, mostly under 3 ft, and the wind is locking in from the west or west-northwest. That puts a nasty cross-onshore breeze across the break at Llantwit Major, making everything choppy and lumpy. The wave energy is weak, with values like 33 and 16 (unified energy) for much of the time. The water temperature is a whopping 69°, which is a massive 9° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual, almost like summer has come early.

We do get a brief moment of clean conditions on Wednesday, 29 July morning, with a light ESE cross-offshore breeze. But the swell is a pathetic 1 ft. It’s clean, but there’s nothing to ride. The same happens on Sunday, 2 August morning with a light easterly cross-offshore wind and a 2 ft, 10-second period swell. The energy is still weak at 51, and the waves are too small to bother with.

The real interest, if you can call it that, is way out at the end of the forecast. On Friday, 7 August, the model is showing a much bigger pulse of swell. The morning brings a 7 ft swell from the west, with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy jumps way up to 715 (strong to very strong wave energy). That’s a solid, powerful groundswell. However, the wind is still a moderate cross-onshore from the west, so it’s going to be choppy and a bit of a battle. The afternoon looks similar, with a 6 ft swell and onshore wind from the southwest. This is for experienced surfers only – 7 ft is going to be a handful, especially with the wind messing it up. Still, it’s the only day with any real size in the whole 16-day window.

Saturday, 8 August looks a bit cleaner. The swell drops to a 4 ft from the west-northwest with a 8-second period, and the wind swings to a fresh cross-shore from the northwest in the morning, then cleaner cross-offshore from the north-northwest in the afternoon. The energy is moderate at 212 and then 114. That afternoon session could be your best bet if you’re desperate for a paddle, but it’s a far cry from perfect.

Overall, if you’ve got a kite, this might be your window – the wind is consistent and the swell is big enough on the 7th. For a surfboard, you’re going to have to wait and keep your fingers crossed that the long-range forecast locks in better. The setup is a classic point break, so it prefers a clean swell, but the wind is the enemy here most of the time.

Rusty.

Read more