Llantwit Major Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it's a tough stretch ahead. The forecast is a real mixed bag of mostly small, weak swell and onshore winds that are going to chop things up. We're looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions, so keep your expectations in check. The best bet, and it's a very qualified one, is to keep an eye on that first week of September.

We start off with nothing doing. The first few days from Tuesday the 25th of August are flat or near-flat, with tiny waves under 0.3 ft. The wind is all over the place, but mostly cross or onshore, making it a write-off. This continues right through the end of August. The energy is extremely weak, with readings often in the single digits (3 to 14) – basically no punch at all.

We get a slight bump in size on the 28th and 29th, with the swell trying to push up to 3 ft to 4 ft, but the wind is a fresh onshore breeze, up to 22 mph. That's going to turn it into a messy, choppy mess. The energy picks up a bit (60-111), but the quality is just not there. This setup is way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Sunday, the 30th of August. The combined energy jumps to 141 (moderate), and the swell period stretches out to 10 seconds. It's still a cross-on breeze, but the swell height is a clean 3 ft from the WSW. It's not a standout, but it's the best looking thing in the first week. The water is currently a very unusual 68°F, which is a massive 7°F warmer than normal for this time of year.

The pattern continues through the first few days of September with the same story: small, onshore, and poor. However, things start to get interesting around the 7th and 8th of September. The models are showing a much bigger push of energy, with combined energy readings hitting 703 on the 7th and 417 on the 8th. That's strong to very strong wave energy. The swell is forecast to be 7 ft from the WSW on the 7th, with a 10-second period. That's serious size, but the wind is the killer. It's a strong breeze, onshore and cross-onshore, up to 25 mph. That will absolutely wreck the waves at Llantwit Major, making it an expert-only, messy, lumpy grind. The swell on the 8th is still a solid 5 ft, but again, the wind is strong and messy.

So, for the entire 16-day window, there isn't a single session that I'd call a real standout. It's a long, bleak run. The forecast can change, but right now, the best you can hope for is a window of cleaner conditions if that wind swings offshore. The 6th of September shows a brief moment of glassy conditions, but with only 1 ft of swell, it's a non-starter. Hang tight, the forecasts can and do change, but right now, I'm not seeing anything worth paddling out for.

Rusty.

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