Llantwit Major Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me level with you. It’s been a rough stretch for Llantwit Major. The whole 16-day window is looking like a write-off—no standout days, no clean waves, just a lot of onshore wind, lumpy conditions, and poor surf. The first real recommendation doesn’t even show up until Monday 7th September, and even then it’s a marginal call at best. So what’s actually happening?

Right now, starting Thursday 27th August, the water is a surprising 68°, which is a massive 7° warmer than normal for this time of year—that’s abnormal, but it’s not enough to save the surf. The wind is a light cross-on, swell is tiny at 0.7 ft, and the combined energy is just 4 (weak). Honestly, it’s not worth paddling out. This pattern continues day after day: Friday 28th and Saturday 29th are blown out with fresh to strong breezes, rain, and messy 2 ft–4 ft swell. Sunday 30th and Monday 31st keep the wind onshore, with swell around 3 ft–4 ft and moderate energy (132–284). Still, no quality.

Tuesday 1st and Wednesday 2nd September are more of the same—cross-onshore wind, lumpy, choppy, tiny swell. Thursday 3rd sees a slight bump in swell to 4 ft but with fresh onshore wind and energy hitting 193 (moderate). Still poor. Friday 4th afternoon has 5 ft swell but with moderate cross-onshore wind and energy of 160—still messy. Saturday 5th and Sunday 6th are windy and rainy, with small swell and weak energy.

Then, on Monday 7th September morning, we finally get something that’s almost worth looking at. The swell jumps to 7 ft from the west with a 9-second period, and combined energy of 686 (strong). It’s a big swell, really only for experts, and the wind is a light cross-on from the west at 10 km/h, which keeps it fairly clean. But the guidance calls it “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so it’s a bit of a gamble. The afternoon drops to 5 ft with energy 404, still cross-on, still only fair.

After that, Tuesday 8th through Thursday 10th September are back to small, weak, and poor. Friday 11th September finally sees cross-offshore winds from the north, which is a big positive for clean conditions. Swell is 3 ft–4 ft from the WSW, period 9 seconds, with moderate energy (132–197). The wind is fresh and clean, but the swell is small and inconsistent. It’s a tease.

So, the bottom line: the only real blip of interest is Monday 7th September morning for experts only, thanks to the 7 ft west swell and light cross-on wind—but it’s marginal. The rest of the 16 days is a long, flat, windy drought. For a point break that’s fairly exposed to the SW, this is a rough run. It’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session for most of it.

Rusty.

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