Llantwit Major Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this straight. We’ve only got one break on the cards for the next sixteen days, and that’s Llantwit Major. It’s a point break, fairly exposed to the southwest, and it’s listed as fairly consistent. But here’s the kicker – there is not a single day in the whole run that gets a thumbs up from the forecast. It’s a long, frustrating stretch with no real surf on offer. It’s not like this area never goes flat, but a blank run like this is pretty normal for the setup when the winds and swells just don’t line up.

Right from the get-go, Tuesday the 18th of August is a write-off. Morning shows some clouds with a cross-on wind from the WNW at 12 mph, pushing around a weak 4 ft swell from the west, period only 7 seconds. The water is absolutely cooking – 69°F – which is a massive 8°F warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s very unusual. But it doesn’t matter because the surf is poor and choppy. Afternoon gets worse: wind jumps to 22 mph, lumpy, and the swell drops. Wednesday and Thursday stay in the same rut – small, messy, cross-onshore junk.

There’s a tiny flicker of hope on Friday morning the 21st. We get a gentle offshore breeze from the ENE at 9 mph, and the water goes clean. But the swell is tiny – only 1 ft from the west. You’d be floating. Saturday and Sunday, the 22nd and 23rd, are even smaller, with swell heights dropping to 0.7 ft. Clean, sure, but it’s barely a ripple. Monday the 24th is flat as a pancake, and that carries on through the next week.

By Tuesday the 25th, the swell tries to pick up a little – 2 ft, period hitting 10 seconds – but it’s blown out by a cross-onshore wind. Wednesday the 26th morning goes glassy with a light westerly of 3 mph, and the water is clean, but again, only 2 ft. It’s a tease.

Late in the run, around Tuesday the 1st of September, the swell finally shows some real size. Morning sees 5 ft from the WSW, and by the afternoon it’s pushing 7 ft from the west, with the combined energy hitting 503 (moderate to strong energy). But here’s the problem: it’s a fresh cross-shore wind from the NW at 22 mph, and the wave comment is “poor surf conditions.” That’s a lumpy, blown-out mess. It’s not for beginners – over 5 ft and up to 7 ft is expert territory – and the wind is ruining it. A point break can handle some wind, but not that much cross-shore chop.

Bottom line: if you’re desperate for a paddle, maybe Friday the 21st morning for a few tiny, clean ankle-biters, or the glassy Wednesday the 26th morning. But there’s nothing here that’s worth getting excited about. It’s a flat, frustrating outlook. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a long wait.

- Rusty

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