Fort Cronkite Rodeo Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook for Fort Cronkite Rodeo Beach is a long, tough stretch. The salt’s gonna be quiet for a good while. The first solid recommendation doesn’t come until the end of the first week, so we’re looking at a gap of several days with nothing worth paddling out for.

The whole pattern is dominated by a consistent, onshore wind from the southwest and west-southwest, which is keeping the surf small and messy. Early on, from Wednesday the 5th through Saturday the 8th, we’ve got tiny swell – under 2 ft – with moderate energy (around 134 to 344). The wind is on it, so it’s blown out and poor. The water temp is a balmy 62°, which is a whopping 5° warmer than average for this time of year, so that’s a notable plus if you’re just going for a dip.

Things change a little on Sunday the 9th. The swell picks up to 6 ft from the west-northwest, with a short period of 10 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a strong 694. But the wind is still on it, and then cross-on, making it choppy. It’s only a marginal call, with a score of 1. This is a tough one – the size is there, but the quality isn’t, and for a beginner, 6 ft is getting into that tricky zone. This pattern of 4 ft to 5 ft, short-period west-northwest swell with onshore or cross-on wind continues straight through Tuesday the 11th. The energy stays moderate to strong (361 to 559), but the surf is still poor.

The second week opens with a bit of a tease. On Friday the 14th, the swell drops to 1 ft, but the period stretches out to a very long 20 seconds from the south-southwest. The energy is moderate at 375. But the wind is cross-on and choppy, so that long-period groundswell potential is wasted. That same long-period, small swell sticks around for the weekend of the 15th and 16th, with gentle to moderate breezes from the southwest, but the surf is still rated poor or marginal. The energy is moderate (385 to 531).

The one true standout – and I say this with caution – is on Wednesday the 19th. The morning shows a 7 ft swell from the northwest, with a short period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 1021, indicating very strong wave energy. The wind is light and cross-on, leaving just small wind ripples. This is a big, powerful, messy swell. At over 8 ft later in the day, it’s strictly for experienced surfers. The short period (8 seconds) means it’s windswell, and with the cross-on wind, it’s going to be a washing machine. For a sheltered, sandy beach bar, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s a raw, powerful day, but not a clean one. The following Thursday the 20th is similar, with 6 ft, short-period swell and cross-on wind.

So, the bottom line: there’s not a single day in this 16-day window that offers clean, quality surf. The best you can hope for is a marginal, choppy session on the 9th or a raw, powerful, and messy one on the 19th. It’s a blank run, and for this area, it’s not unusual. Forecasts can change, but for now, this is a tough one.

Rusty.

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