Fort Cronkite Rodeo Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into the surf outlook for the next 16 days. I'll be honest with you right off the bat, this forecast window for Fort Cronkite Rodeo Beach is a tough one to call. We've got a long stretch ahead where the conditions just aren't playing ball for a decent session.

We're looking at Friday the 24th of July right through to Thursday the 31st of July, and it's a write-off for quality waves. The swell is small and the wind is just a constant cross-onshore chop machine. The water temp is clocking in at 63°, which is a whopping 7° warmer than normal for this time of year. That's very unusual and might feel a bit soupy, but it won't do anything for the wave quality. You're more likely to get a better workout from the 9 to 16 mph westerlies than from any rideable face.

Even when Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th try to offer a bit of hope in the mornings with a 3 ft to 4 ft of long-period (18-second) SW groundswell, the light cross-onshore wind is still messing with the surface. The wave energy is moderate (805 and 981), but the "marginal" verdict is spot on.

Now, there are two days that stand out as a possible go, but even then, it's a serious caveat situation. On Wednesday the 29th of July in the morning, the forecast shows a solid 7 ft of NW swell. This is a significant jump in size. However, the period drops right off to just 8 seconds. This is short-period, wind-driven swell, so the power is there for a strong wave energy reading (1482), but it's going to be a bit crumbly and disorganised. The wind is light and variable, which is a massive plus. But for a beach break like this, a big, short-period swell is going to be a mess of closeouts and rip currents. That's really only for the experts who can handle a beating, and even then, it's a gamble.

Fast forward to Sunday the 2nd of August. The morning shows another 7 ft of NW swell, again with a short 9-second period and light, clean offshore winds. It's a similar story to the 29th, just a week later. The wave energy is strong (1539). This is another session for the experienced crew only. The combination of size and short period at a beach break makes it heavy, unpredictable, and not very well-shaped. You might find a peak that works, but you'll be working for it.

After that, from Monday the 3rd of August through to the end of the run on Saturday the 8th, the size stays solid at 6 ft to 8 ft, but the period stays stubbornly short (8-10 seconds) and the afternoons always get hammered by a 9 to 16 mph westerly cross-onshore. The mornings do offer some clean windows with light offshore or variable breezes, but the poor wave quality and the size making it too big for beginners are the main issues.

In short, there's no standout, classic surf in this window. If you are a confident expert who doesn't mind roughing it out on a short-period, high-energy swell, the mornings of Wednesday the 29th of July and Sunday the 2nd of August are your best shots. For everyone else, it's a two-week wait for a change in the pattern. This place can be a real sandbar machine, but not right now.

Rusty.

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