Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down this stretch of coast for the next couple of weeks. It’s a mixed bag, so I'll take you through it.

First off, water temp is around 56°, running a touch colder than usual for this time of year. Nothing wild, just a little crisp. You'll want the full suit.

The first few days are quiet. Friday and Saturday have small, weak surf, nothing over 2ft. The swell energy is low, around 174 to 360, so it's pretty weak. There are rideable waves, but it’s pretty ordinary. Winds are light and mornings are clean, so if you're keen for a splash, you could find something, but it’s not worth getting wet for.

Then Sunday morning sees a jump in size, with a 8ft swell from the NW and the energy reading jumps up to 1707. That's a solid pulse of moderate energy. But here's the catch – the period is only 9 seconds, so it's short-period windswell. It might be a bit bumpy and won't have that long-period push. The wind is cross-off at 12 mph, so it'll be clean, but the quality is marginal. The afternoon drops a bit to 7ft with a stronger cross-off breeze up to 18 mph. Still surfable, but not perfect.

Monday and Tuesday settle down to that 4-5ft range. The period is still short, around 9-10 seconds. Light winds in the morning, with Monday afternoon looking the pick of those days with clean conditions and a decent 4ft of WNW swell. The energy is moderate, around 432 to 527. It's not big, but there's enough to push you around.

Wednesday and Thursday are looking poor. The swell is there, around 4-5ft, but the wind swings onshore and it gets choppy. The energy is moderate, but the quality is just not there. I'd give those a miss unless you're into a fight.

Then we hit a lull. Friday the 14th and into the weekend, the swell drops back down to under 3ft. The period does stretch out, up to 15-18 seconds, which means better shaped waves, but there just isn't the size to make it interesting. The energy readings are in the 300s to 400s, still weak. It's clean, but it's small. You'll be on a longboard, not a shortboard.

The early part of the following week stays small. Monday and Tuesday are in that 2ft range. The energy is weak. There are some clean windows, but it's not going to be a classic.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Late on Wednesday the 19th, we start to see a pulse. The swell builds to 3ft, but the energy is up there, almost 548, and the wind is light and cross-off. It's clean. The forecast model is saying "very good surf conditions" for that afternoon. That's a standout.

And then Thursday the 20th. This is the real deal. The swell is up to 5ft from the WNW with a period stretching out to 11 seconds. The energy is strong, coming in at 703 to 805. The wind is a cross-off breeze, keeping it clean. This is the best window of the whole outlook. It's got size, it's got push, and it's clean. The caveat is that with a period of 11 seconds, it might be a bit walled at a beach break, but it's a good looking forecast.

After that, Friday the 21st gets weird. The morning is small, but the afternoon sees a spike to 7ft with a very short period of just 6 seconds. That's a junk wave, all chop and no push. The wind is up to 18 mph. That's more of a kite-surfing wind and wave setup than a paddle-surfing one, to be honest. The energy is moderate, but the quality is poor.

The final weekend, the 22nd, looks like it’s back to small, weak surf in the 2ft range with clean but unremarkable conditions.

So, the standout is definitely Thursday the 20th. That’s your best bet for a proper session. The other one to keep an eye on is Wednesday afternoon the 19th, which looks clean with a building swell. The long-range stuff later in the week is promising but less certain, so keep your fingers crossed.

It’s not a classic run, but there’s a window of opportunity if you’re patient.

Rusty out.

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