Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on offer for Drakes Estero.

Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day window, it's a bit of a sad story. We’ve got a long stretch of onshore junk and weak pulses, with only a few brief windows that might be worth a paddle. The water temp is about what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

The first real chance to get wet looks like Monday morning, the 10th of August. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the WNW pushing through, but it’s coming in with a cross-on wind from the SW at 6 mph. The combined energy is moderate (504), but it’s a bit lumpy. It’s not great, but it’s the first pulse we’ve got. The afternoon cleans up into a cross-off breeze, dropping to 4ft, and the report says it’s clean. That’s probably your best bet in the first few days.

Then we hit a real dry spell. From Tuesday the 11th right through to Saturday the 15th, conditions are mostly onshore and poor. There’s a bit of a weird pulse on the 14th and 15th with some long-period SW groundswell (15-18 seconds), but it’s small, around 2ft to 3ft, and the wind is straight on it. That long-period stuff can be a bit straight at a beach/river setup like this, too. Not worth chasing.

Sunday the 16th is more of the same—small and marginal.

Now, here’s a tiny glimmer. Monday the 17th morning has a clean, cross-off breeze from the NW at 12 mph, and a 3ft SW swell. Energy is moderate (534), and the report says it’s clean. That’s a possible dawn patrol. But hold on—Monday afternoon the wind rips up to 28 mph from the WNW with a 6ft, short-period (7 seconds) windswell. That’s not for surfing; that’s kite territory. The combined energy is strong (679), but the quality is poor.

Tuesday the 18th is more of the same: strong, gusty cross-off winds and a bumpy 6ft NW swell. Too messy and blown out for a good time.

The standout, if you can call it that, is Wednesday the 19th of August. Morning has a light breeze from the WNW at 6 mph, a clean 3ft SW swell with a 14-second period, and the report says "expect good surf conditions." The energy is moderate (485). The wind is offshore, making for clean, lined-up waves. It’s small, but it’s the best quality on offer in the whole forecast. The afternoon gets a bit windier, so get on it early.

After that, it’s back to onshore wind and small, weak swell from the 20th through the 25th. A few pulses of long-period SW groundswell (18-21 seconds) show up around the 22nd and 23rd, but the heights are tiny (1ft to 2ft) and the energy is weak (193-363). Not enough to bother with.

So, bottom line: the best window is Wednesday morning, the 19th of August. It’s small but clean. Monday the 10th afternoon is a secondary option, but it’s not as clean. The rest of the run is a write-off. Don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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