
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 20 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 20 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 26 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 8s period, NW swell with 868 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 20 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 8s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Mon 20th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Mon 20th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Sun 26th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right. Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at the next couple of weeks, starting with the only spot that’s really on the cards: Drakes Estero.
Alright, so the outlook is a bit of a slow burner, but there’s a small window of something decent. The water is sitting at 55.8°, which is pretty much normal for the time of year, so no surprises there.
The first real chance to get wet is Monday morning, July 20. It’s not going to be a classic, though. We’ve got a 2-foot SW groundswell with a long 16-second period, and the combined energy is moderate at 421. The wind is a light cross-onshore, which is just going to put a bit of a wrinkle on the surface. I’d call it a paddle-around session, but nothing to get excited about.
Monday afternoon the swell picks up a touch to 2.6 feet, still from the SW and that same long period. The energy bumps up to 501 (moderate). The wind turns cross-shore, which is a bit better, but it’s still got some cross-chop. It’s marginal.
Tuesday morning, July 21, is more of the same: 3-foot SW swell, 14-second period, light cross-shore wind. The energy is 432. It’s clean enough, but just a bit weak. The afternoon is where things start to look a little better. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the NW, and the swell holds at 2.6 feet. The energy is 462. It’s clean. You’ll get a few fun ones if you’re patient.
Wednesday, July 22, is a mixed bag. The morning has a light cross-onshore and 2.3-foot swell, so it’s not great. The afternoon cleans up with a cross-offshore wind and 2.6-foot SSW swell. The energy is 364, so it’s on the weaker side. Still, if you’re a beginner, this is your window.
Now, Thursday, July 23, is the first real standout. The morning has a 3.3-foot SSW swell, 14-second period, and a light cross-offshore wind from the WNW. The energy is a solid 555 (moderate). The conditions are clean. This is the best session of the first week. The afternoon is also clean, but the wind picks up to a moderate breeze, so it’s not as glassy. Still, it’s a good day.
Friday, July 24, the swell stays at 3.9 feet from the SSW, but the wind is a moderate to fresh cross-offshore. The energy jumps to 1045 in the morning and 1384 in the afternoon (strong). It’s clean, but the wind is getting a bit more push. It’s still rideable, but it’s not the best of the run.
Saturday, July 25, the swell drops to 3 feet from the SW, but the period goes all the way to 21 seconds – that’s a very long period groundswell. The energy is 1300 in the morning and 1175 in the afternoon (strong). The wind is a moderate to fresh cross-offshore. This is interesting. That long period means the waves will have plenty of push, but at a beach/river setup like this, it might break too straight. Still, it’s worth a look for the more experienced surfers.
Sunday, July 26, the morning is similar: 3-foot SW swell, 19-second period, moderate cross-offshore. Energy is 1094. The afternoon, though, is a different
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed morning, min 13°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Thu morning, strong winds from the NW by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | S 11 | SW 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | WNW 8 | NW 8 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
201 | 295 | 291 | 268 | 248 | 256 | 245 | 236 | 264 | 389 | 425 | 372 | 512 | 549 | 389 | 763 | 543 | 634 | 627 | 628 | 573 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:54PM1.65m | 6:40AM1.08m | 6:36PM1.66m | 8:23AM1.06m | 7:21PM1.67m | 9:55AM1.12m | 8:09PM1.68m | 11:01AM1.21m | 8:56PM1.70m | 11:50AM1.27m | 9:43PM1.72m | 12:28PM1.31m | 10:26PM1.75m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:34AM0.37m | 1:11AM0.38m | 12:24PM0.58m | 2:19AM0.28m | 1:23PM0.75m | 3:21AM0.19m | 2:30PM0.87m | 4:15AM0.10m | 3:34PM0.94m | 5:01AM0.03m | 4:29PM0.95m | 5:42AM-0.03m | 5:16PM0.94m | ||||||||
6:03 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | |
— | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:28 | — | — | 8:27 | — | — | 8:25 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 14 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 8 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | S 11 | S 10 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 |
72 | 295 | 291 | 268 | 248 | 256 | 122 | 236 | 264 | 389 | 425 | 372 | 512 | 549 | 372 | 329 | 263 | 634 | 627 | 446 | 442 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 12 | SW 15 | SW 16 | S 9 | S 8 | S 7 | S 7 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 |
148 | 136 | 121 | 118 | 101 | 220 | 245 | 78 | 64 | 40 | 24 | 329 | 448 | 541 | 389 | 763 | 543 | 220 | 203 | 109 | 98 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | NW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | S 10 | WNW 12 | NW 8 | WNW 12 | WNW 11 | SW 18 | SW 26 | SSW 6 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SSW 17 | WSW 16 | S 12 | — | — | — | SW 21 |
201 | 70 | 70 | 46 | 46 | 31 | 31 | 27 | 87 | 51 | 106 | 8 | 85 | 85 | 30 | 25 | 129 | — | — | — | 117 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | — | WNW 8 | — | WNW 11 | WNW 4 | NW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 |
— | — | — | — | 67 | 56 | — | 23 | — | 75 | 38 | 142 | 104 | 209 | 145 | 183 | 240 | 347 | 264 | 628 | 573 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 403 | 0 | 144 | 0 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 147 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 48 | 26 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 135 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










