
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 6 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 9 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 9s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 9 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 958 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 6 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 06) at 2AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 9s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 09) at 8AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 2AM (Thu 6th Aug) | 2ft (0.6m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 11PM (Sun 9th Aug) | 8ft (2.4m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 8AM (Sun 9th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.
Right off the bat, it’s a bit of a slow start. We’ve got some small, weak swell rolling in, but the conditions are just not cooperating. The first real chance to paddle out comes on Thursday afternoon, August 6th, when the wind swings offshore and cleans things up. The waves are tiny, around 2ft from the SW, with a long period of 13 seconds, so it’s more of a longboard glide than anything with punch. The combined energy is moderate at 183 — enough to keep you moving, but you won’t be getting barrelled.
Friday morning on August 7th is a no-go with cross-onshore wind messing it up. But Friday afternoon shows some promise again with clean conditions and a touch more period at 19 seconds, pushing the energy up to a solid 317. Still, the swell height is only 2ft. It’s marginal, but if you’re desperate for a slide, that’s your window.
Saturday, August 8th, brings a similar story. Clean in the afternoon with a 2ft SSW swell, 17 second period, and energy at 377. It’s surfable, but you’re really working for it. The water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so don’t forget the booties.
Now, here’s where things get interesting. Sunday morning, August 9th, the swell jumps up to 8ft from the NW, with a short period of 9 seconds. That’s a lot of raw energy — 1550 — which is strong, but it’s a short-period wind swell, so it’s gonna be a bit lumpy and unruly. The wind is offshore, keeping it clean, but at 8ft, this is expert territory only. The afternoon drops to 6ft, still clean, but the energy is still high at 713. This is probably the best session on offer for the week if you’ve got the skills.
Monday through Thursday, August 10th to 13th, is a bit of a washout. The swell is around 5ft from the WNW, but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and the conditions are described as poor to marginal. The energy stays moderate to strong (500-600 range), but the wind just ruins it. By Thursday afternoon, August 13th, the swell drops to 4ft and the period drops to 8 seconds, and it’s just not worth it.
We hit a real dry spell from Friday, August 14th through Sunday, August 16th. The swell is small and the wind is mostly onshore or messy. Sunday morning, August 16th, does show clean conditions with a 3ft SW swell at 16 seconds, but the energy is only 441. It’s a tease.
Then, we get a nice little pulse on Wednesday, August 19th. The morning shows 5ft from the WNW, with a short 7-second period, but the wind is light offshore and the conditions are "very good." The energy is a solid 580. That’s a fun, punchy wave for a beach break, and it’s clean. The afternoon gets bigger at 7ft, but the wind picks up and it becomes more of a challenge.
The final standout is Thursday, August 20th. Both morning and afternoon have 6ft to 7ft from the WNW, with a consistent 8-second period, and the wind is offshore and light to gentle. The energy is strong in the 700s. This is the best bet for the second week — clean, solid, and punchy. Just remember, over 8ft is expert-only, but this is right in the sweet spot for experienced surfers.
So, the best on offer is the early morning of August 19th for a clean, punchy session, and then all of Thursday, August 20th for a solid, clean day of waves. The rest of the time, you’re either fighting the wind or waiting for the next pulse.
Stay stoked.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 16 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
68 | 111 | 84 | 84 | 81 | 85 | 181 | 133 | 204 | 202 | 723 | 826 | 522 | 766 | 443 | 355 | 520 | 419 | 402 | 532 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 5:31PM1.74m | 7:31AM1.07m | 6:23PM1.79m | 9:12AM1.13m | 7:24PM1.84m | 10:25AM1.23m | 8:28PM1.90m | 11:17AM1.32m | 9:31PM1.96m | 12:01PM1.40m | 10:30PM1.99m | 12:41PM1.46m | 11:25PM1.98m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:10AM0.24m | 12:12PM0.78m | 2:23AM0.11m | 1:27PM0.90m | 3:30AM-0.03m | 2:48PM0.94m | 4:30AM-0.16m | 3:59PM0.91m | 5:23AM-0.25m | 5:00PM0.83m | 6:10AM-0.30m | 5:56PM0.73m | ||||||||
— | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | |
8:16 | — | — | 8:15 | — | — | 8:14 | — | — | 8:13 | — | — | 8:12 | — | — | 8:10 | — | — | 8:09 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 14 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 19 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | WNW 10 | SSW 15 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 |
43 | 67 | 47 | 39 | 77 | 82 | 181 | 73 | 123 | 202 | 169 | 533 | 148 | 766 | 443 | 355 | 520 | 419 | 402 | 532 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WNW 8 | WNW 5 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SSW 18 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SSW 16 | SSW 11 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 14 | SW 18 |
68 | 111 | 84 | 84 | 27 | 10 | 75 | 82 | 204 | 35 | 37 | 169 | 25 | 142 | 138 | 92 | 118 | 69 | 100 | 194 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 9 | S 9 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 18 | W 15 | SW 16 | SW 11 | W 13 | S 9 | SW 12 | SW 21 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 12 |
42 | 7 | 60 | 60 | 81 | 85 | 17 | 133 | 20 | 14 | 2 | 22 | 18 | 24 | 23 | 60 | 97 | 94 | 113 | 28 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 7 | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 44 | — | — | 126 | 723 | 826 | 522 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 75 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 430 | 215 | 0 | 430 | 490 | 26 | 32 | 195 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 195 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











