Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 am 01 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
12.9° C
1.2° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 2 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,801 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 19s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Best Surf 8PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, it's your man Rusty here with the outlook for Drakes Estero (beach/riverh).

Right off the bat, the first couple of days are a bit of a write-off. Saturday the 1st is a mess. We've got a 5ft to 8ft WNW swell, but that wind is howling out of the NW at 25 mph, turning it into a choppy, ugly mess. The wave energy is moderate at best, but the conditions are just too rough. Not worth paddling out.

Now, Sunday the 2nd is where we start to see a glimmer of hope. The morning shows some potential. The swell is a solid 7ft from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, and the wind drops to a gentle 9 mph cross-off. The water is a bit colder than normal at 55°F for this time of year, so you'll want a hood or a thicker suit. The combined energy is moderate, and the report says "expect very good surf conditions." That Sunday morning window looks like the best bet for the first week. The afternoon gets blown out again with a fresh breeze, so get it early.

Monday the 3rd has another chance. The morning is clean but with an onshore breeze, making it messy. But hold onto your boards, because Monday afternoon looks glassy! Winds shift to a 3 mph westerly, glassing off the surface. The swell drops to 5ft, but that light wind is a major positive. It'll be clean.

After that, we hit a bit of a lull. From Tuesday the 4th right through to Friday the 7th, the swell drops dramatically. We're talking 1ft to 4ft. The wave energy is weak, and the periods get very long on Thursday and Friday, hitting 18-19 seconds. That groundswell is better for a point or reef, not a beach setup like this. It'll be weak and wonky. Not worth the effort.

Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th see the swell bump back up to 5ft and 6ft, with moderate energy. The winds are cross-shore or cross-off, so it could be alright, but the reports are calling it "marginal." A standard average day.

The real standout for this whole outlook might actually be right at the very end. Looking at Sunday the 16th, the swell is a clean 5ft from the WNW with a 10-second period. The wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-off from the NW, and the report says "expect very good surf conditions" with moderate energy. It's a long way out, so take it with a grain of salt, but that afternoon session on the 16th looks like a proper score. For anyone who can wait, that's the one to circle on the calendar.

A quick word on the future; after the 9th, the swell drops back down. Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th have waist-high surf but with moderate to fresh winds, making it unappealing. We get another little bump on the 14th and 15th of August, with 5ft to 6ft WNW swell, but the wind is cranking at 19 mph. At those wind speeds, with that swell height, this beach setup starts looking more interesting for kiteboarding than paddle surfing. Conditions will be too choppy to be any fun on a surfboard.

So, if you're looking for the best windows: Sunday morning the 2nd and that long-range Sunday afternoon on the 16th. The glassy Monday afternoon on the 3rd is worth a look too if you want clean, small waves.

Stay stoked.
Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sat night, calm by Mon night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue morning, min 12°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
Friday
7
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
2
3
1
!
1
3
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
8
2.4
WNW
9
2
WNW
10
2.2
WNW
9
3
NW
10
1.8
WNW
10
1.6
WNW
10
1.4
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.1
WNW
9
1
WNW
8
0.9
WNW
8
0.9
WNW
9
0.8
WNW
9
0.8
WNW
9
0.5
SW
13
0.4
SW
18
0.4
SW
18
0.5
SW
19
1.8
NW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
285
898
888
717
835
1801
627
490
327
249
186
147
92
148
101
94
83
82
85
181
378
Wind (km/h)
20
NW
40
NW
30
NW
15
NW
30
NW
15
NW
10
SSE
5
W
10
S
15
SSE
10
S
5
SSW
10
SSW
10
W
5
S
5
WSW
15
WNW
10
WNW
10
W
20
WNW
10
W
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
glassy
on
on
on
on
on
cross
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross
High Tide
3:14PM1.49m
2:27AM1.51m
3:42PM1.55m
3:17AM1.37m
4:12PM1.62m
4:19AM1.23m
4:48PM1.68m
5:43AM1.11m
5:31PM1.74m
7:31AM1.07m
6:23PM1.79m
9:12AM1.13m
7:24PM1.84m
Low Tide
8:52AM-0.02m
9:09PM0.63m
9:23AM0.09m
9:58PM0.55m
9:56AM0.25m
10:54PM0.46m
10:32AM0.43m
11:58PM0.36m
11:16AM0.61m
1:10AM0.24m
12:12PM0.78m
2:23AM0.11m
1:27PM0.90m
3:30AM-0.03m
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:13
6:15
6:16
6:16
6:16
6:18
6:18
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:21
8:20
8:19
8:17
8:16
8:15
8:14
 mm
Temp °C
15
16
15
15
15
14
16
16
13
16
16
14
14
16
14
16
15
13
15
14
12
Feels °C
12
9
7
13
9
9
15
16
12
14
14
14
13
15
13
16
14
12
14
12
8
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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