Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a mixed bag coming up over the next couple of weeks. The main player is Drakes Estero, a beach/river setup that’s exposed to the SW. The water temp is sitting about average for the time of year, nothing to write home about. The first few days look a bit frustrating – there’s swell on offer, but the wind is a problem.

Monday the 27th through Wednesday the 30th sees a long-period SW groundswell rolling in, around 4ft, with a period of 18 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, and it’s packing moderate energy. But the wind is a stiff cross-off from the NW, blowing 18 to 25 mph. It’s clean, but that wind is strong, making it a battle. The swell direction is good for the spot, but it’s hard to get excited about the conditions.

Wednesday afternoon the 29th, the swell shifts to a short-period WNW windswell, jumping to 8ft, but with a period of only 8 seconds. That’s a lot of water, but it’s short and crumbly, and the energy is high, but the wind is still a strong breeze. It’s too big for beginners, and the short period means it won’t have much shape.

Thursday the 30th is similar, with 8ft WNW windswell and a fresh breeze. Not great.

Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st see the swell drop back, with a mix of weak SSW and WNW pulses. The wind eases a bit, but we’re still looking at marginal conditions.

The real stand-out window opens up on Monday the 3rd of August. Monday morning is the pick of the whole forecast. We’ve got a 6ft WNW swell, 10-second period, and the wind goes glassy – a slight air from the WSW, just 3 mph. The energy is moderate, and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the one. It’s a clean, glassy morning with a solid, workable wave. The break is fairly consistent, so you can expect a few waves. It’s going to be a magic session.

The next real highlight comes on Wednesday the 5th of August. The afternoon session sees glassy conditions again, with a 7ft WNW swell and a 10-second period. That’s a solid wave, and with the wind off, it’ll be clean. This is another one to circle.

After that, Thursday the 6th of August has a 8ft WNW swell with an 11-second period, and the wind is cross-off in the afternoon from the WNW at 12 mph. The energy is strong. It’s a big, powerful wave, but it’s right on the edge for experts only. The wind is decent, but you need to be on your game.

From Friday the 7th onward, the swell fades and the wind turns onshore, with poor conditions and low energy. The run from the 7th through to the 11th is a write-off, with small, weak, and onshore slop. It’s a typical summer lull.

So, to sum it up: the best on offer is Monday morning the 3rd of August. Get there early for glassy, clean 6ft WNW groundswell. The second best is Wednesday afternoon the 5th of August, with 7ft glassy conditions. Don’t bother with the rest.

Rusty.

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