Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Drakes Estero. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, but there’s some serious light at the end of the tunnel if you’re willing to wait.

Right now, the first half of the outlook is a bit of a write-off for good surfing. The first proper reading we’ve got is for Wednesday, July 15th, but it’s not looking great. Early morning, there’s a 6 ft swell from the WNW with a short, punchy 8-second period. The wind is a stiff cross-offshore at 16 mph, which keeps the surface clean, but the wave quality is just marginal. The afternoon gets bigger – 8 ft – but it’s ragged with a strong breeze, and the note says poor conditions. This early stretch is just too windy and messy to get excited about.

Thursday and Friday, the 16th and 17th, follow a similar pattern: solid swell heights (7 ft to 8 ft) but with a strong, fresh breeze out of the NW that keeps the surface clean but the waves are just poor to marginal. The energy is there – we’re looking at moderate combined swell energy (509 to 922) – but the wind and short period mean it’s not coming together. For a beginner, these sizes are already too big.

The weekend of the 18th and 19th sees the swell drop right off. We’re talking tiny 2 ft to 3 ft waves with a very long period (16-18 seconds). The wind goes light, which is the only positive, but the energy is weak (479-650). It’s a classic case of a long-period groundswell hitting a beach/river setup, which tends to break too straight and mushy. Not worth the paddle for most.

Then there’s a real lull. From Monday, July 20th, right through to the morning of Thursday, July 23rd, the waves are tiny (2 ft to 2 ft) with weak energy (293-443) and moderate to fresh cross-offshore winds. It’s a dead period for surf. Don’t bother.

Now, the real standout is in the second week. Saturday, July 25th, into Monday, July 27th is where it gets interesting. The swell builds from the SSW and SW, bringing in 4 ft to 5 ft waves with a solid 16-18 second period. The combined energy ramps up to strong – we’re talking 1023 to 1491 – indicating real power. The big news is the wind. For the afternoon of the 25th and then again on the 26th and 27th mornings, we’ve got light, clean cross-offshore winds at just 6 mph. That’s glassy, clean surf. The notes say "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers" for a reason. This is groundswell, so it should offer some proper shape, but remember, a long period like this can be a bit too straight for a beach break, so you might need to look for a bend or a gutter. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

The best of the best is likely Sunday afternoon, July 26th, and Monday morning, July 27th. The swell is 5 ft and 4 ft respectively, the energy is strong, and the wind is light and offshore. This is the window to aim for. For the experienced guys, it’s the only real highlight in the whole 16 days. The rest of the second week, from the 28th onwards, is just a slow fade with building wind again.

So, to sum it up: the first 10 days are a washout from wind and then a flat spell. The real winner is the last weekend of July and the first day of the next week. Circle the 25th, 26th, and 27th. It’s a long way out, so the forecast could shift, but if it holds, Drakes Estero will be clean and punchy. Keep your eyes on it.

Rusty.

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