Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 4 am 15 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.3° C
0.0° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 1,030 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 16s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 20s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 8PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Thu 16th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Best Surf 8PM (Thu 16th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 8PM (Thu 16th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Drakes Estero. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, but there’s some serious light at the end of the tunnel if you’re willing to wait.

Right now, the first half of the outlook is a bit of a write-off for good surfing. The first proper reading we’ve got is for Wednesday, July 15th, but it’s not looking great. Early morning, there’s a 6 ft swell from the WNW with a short, punchy 8-second period. The wind is a stiff cross-offshore at 16 mph, which keeps the surface clean, but the wave quality is just marginal. The afternoon gets bigger – 8 ft – but it’s ragged with a strong breeze, and the note says poor conditions. This early stretch is just too windy and messy to get excited about.

Thursday and Friday, the 16th and 17th, follow a similar pattern: solid swell heights (7 ft to 8 ft) but with a strong, fresh breeze out of the NW that keeps the surface clean but the waves are just poor to marginal. The energy is there – we’re looking at moderate combined swell energy (509 to 922) – but the wind and short period mean it’s not coming together. For a beginner, these sizes are already too big.

The weekend of the 18th and 19th sees the swell drop right off. We’re talking tiny 2 ft to 3 ft waves with a very long period (16-18 seconds). The wind goes light, which is the only positive, but the energy is weak (479-650). It’s a classic case of a long-period groundswell hitting a beach/river setup, which tends to break too straight and mushy. Not worth the paddle for most.

Then there’s a real lull. From Monday, July 20th, right through to the morning of Thursday, July 23rd, the waves are tiny (2 ft to 2 ft) with weak energy (293-443) and moderate to fresh cross-offshore winds. It’s a dead period for surf. Don’t bother.

Now, the real standout is in the second week. Saturday, July 25th, into Monday, July 27th is where it gets interesting. The swell builds from the SSW and SW, bringing in 4 ft to 5 ft waves with a solid 16-18 second period. The combined energy ramps up to strong – we’re talking 1023 to 1491 – indicating real power. The big news is the wind. For the afternoon of the 25th and then again on the 26th and 27th mornings, we’ve got light, clean cross-offshore winds at just 6 mph. That’s glassy, clean surf. The notes say "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers" for a reason. This is groundswell, so it should offer some proper shape, but remember, a long period like this can be a bit too straight for a beach break, so you might need to look for a bend or a gutter. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

The best of the best is likely Sunday afternoon, July 26th, and Monday morning, July 27th. The swell is 5 ft and 4 ft respectively, the energy is strong, and the wind is light and offshore. This is the window to aim for. For the experienced guys, it’s the only real highlight in the whole 16 days. The rest of the second week, from the 28th onwards, is just a slow fade with building wind again.

So, to sum it up: the first 10 days are a washout from wind and then a flat spell. The real winner is the last weekend of July and the first day of the next week. Circle the 25th, 26th, and 27th. It’s a long way out, so the forecast could shift, but if it holds, Drakes Estero will be clean and punchy. Keep your eyes on it.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed morning, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Thu night, light winds from the WNW by Fri night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
0
1
0
0
1
2
1
2
3
2
1
1
2
3
1
1
0
1
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.7
WNW
8
2.4
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
7
2.5
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
1.7
NW
7
0.7
W
16
0.7
SW
18
0.7
W
16
0.6
SW
16
0.7
SW
17
0.7
SW
17
0.6
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.6
SSW
16
0.6
SW
14
0.7
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
310
620
536
455
866
545
307
285
309
251
314
239
170
297
277
201
295
299
166
167
220
Wind (km/h)
30
NW
40
NW
35
NW
35
NW
40
NW
30
NW
25
NW
30
WNW
20
WNW
10
W
20
WNW
15
WNW
10
WSW
10
W
10
WNW
10
W
20
WNW
25
NW
25
NW
30
WNW
30
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
2:34PM1.49m
1:16AM1.93m
3:15PM1.53m
2:09AM1.79m
3:55PM1.58m
3:04AM1.60m
4:34PM1.61m
4:03AM1.40m
5:14PM1.64m
5:13AM1.21m
5:54PM1.65m
6:40AM1.08m
6:36PM1.66m
Low Tide
7:52PM0.72m
8:44AM-0.35m
8:50PM0.65m
9:27AM-0.22m
9:51PM0.59m
10:08AM-0.05m
10:54PM0.53m
10:50AM0.15m
00:01AM0.46m
11:34AM0.37m
1:11AM0.38m
12:24PM0.58m
2:19AM0.28m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
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cloud
part cloud
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part cloud
part cloud
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part cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:00
6:01
6:01
6:03
6:03
6:03
6:05
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:34
8:32
8:32
8:31
8:30
8:30
8:30
 mm
Temp °C
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
12
13
13
11
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
Feels °C
10
8
6
7
7
5
9
9
7
11
11
7
12
11
10
12
11
9
9
8
6
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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