Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 am 09 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
14.6° C
0.3° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 9 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,132 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 10 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 9s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8AM (Mon 10th Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 9s
Best Surf 8AM (Mon 10th Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 9s
Most Powerful 2AM (Mon 10th Aug)8ft (2.5m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, this is a tough run. We’ve got a long stretch of small, onshore, and weak conditions ahead. The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The first few days are a write-off for a proper paddle. Sunday the 9th through Tuesday the 11th see a bit of waist-high WNW swell in the 4ft to 5ft range, but the wind is all wrong – cross and onshore – leaving it lumpy and weak. The energy is moderate, around 432 to 607 (combined energy of all swells directed here), but it just isn’t coming together. Tuesday afternoon the 11th looks like the best of a bad bunch with a light cross-off breeze and a clean 4ft, but it’s still pretty small.

Then we hit a real dry spell. From Wednesday the 12th right through to Sunday the 16th, it’s mostly poor surf with onshore winds and tiny, weak swell. A few of those days show some long-period groundswell (15-18 seconds), but it’s coming in at only 2ft to 3ft – that’s knee-high at best. The energy is moderate but the size just isn’t there for a proper ride.

Now, there’s a flicker of hope. On Sunday the 16th afternoon, we see a clean, cross-off breeze with a 3ft SW groundswell at 15 seconds. The energy is solid (511), and it’ll be tidy, but it’s still small. That’s the first real window for a glassy session if you’re on a log.

The second week is a mixed bag, but nothing to write home about until the very end. Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th stay marginal with clean but tiny surf. Wednesday the 19th afternoon brings a sudden spike in size – 7ft from the WNW but with a short, choppy 7-second period and strong 22 mph cross-off winds. That’s more of a windswell mess; the energy jumps to 668, but it’s not going to be pretty. For the experienced crew, it might offer some lumpy, fast walls, but it’s not a standout.

The best call of the whole outlook? It’s gotta be Saturday the 22nd morning. We’ve got a clean, cross-off breeze, a solid 5ft of WNW swell at a short period (6 seconds), and good energy (361). It’s not a classic groundswell, but with that wind, the beach break will have some punchy, fun little waves. The afternoon sees it jump to 7ft with the same short period, which will be too bumpy and strong for most, but the morning session is the one to target.

Sunday the 23rd sees the biggest swell of the run – 8ft from the WNW on Sunday afternoon, with a massive 1064 combined energy – but the wind is cross-onshore and light, so it’ll be fat and unruly. That’s expert territory, and not super clean. The following Monday the 24th keeps that 7ft range but with onshore wind, so again, not the pick.

Overall, if you’re a beginner, stay away from the 7ft+ days, and even the smaller stuff is inconsistent and often bumpy. The best bet for a clean, fun paddle is Saturday morning the 22nd. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only real standout in a pretty flat and messy forecast.

Keep your eyes on the horizon, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Sun night, calm by Tue night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Fri afternoon, min 13°C on Wed morning). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
9
Monday
10
Tuesday
11
Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
Friday
14
Saturday
15
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
3
2
2
2
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.4
WNW
10
1.5
WNW
10
2.5
NW
9
1.6
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.4
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.1
WNW
9
1.4
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.1
WNW
9
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SW
15
0.5
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.9
SW
17
0.9
SW
16
1
SW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
356
421
1132
407
280
307
272
199
300
264
222
292
266
186
191
136
164
255
414
381
496
Wind (km/h)
5
WSW
25
NW
20
NW
10
WSW
15
W
5
SSW
10
S
10
WNW
5
SSE
15
SSE
10
S
20
S
20
SSE
15
S
10
SE
15
SSE
10
SW
10
SSE
10
S
10
WSW
5
SSW
Wind State
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
on
on
cross-off
on
on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
on
on
cross
glassy
High Tide
11:17AM1.32m
9:31PM1.96m
12:01PM1.40m
10:30PM1.99m
12:41PM1.46m
11:25PM1.98m
1:19PM1.52m
00:18AM1.93m
1:54PM1.57m
1:09AM1.82m
2:29PM1.62m
2:01AM1.68m
3:03PM1.65m
2:54AM1.51m
Low Tide
3:59PM0.91m
5:23AM-0.25m
5:00PM0.83m
6:10AM-0.30m
5:56PM0.73m
6:54AM-0.29m
6:49PM0.62m
7:35AM-0.23m
7:41PM0.52m
8:14AM-0.12m
8:33PM0.45m
8:52AM0.03m
9:25PM0.39m
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:20
6:22
6:22
6:22
6:24
6:24
6:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:12
8:10
8:09
8:08
8:07
8:06
8:05
 mm
Temp °C
15
15
13
14
14
12
15
15
13
15
16
14
15
15
15
16
17
15
16
16
15
Feels °C
15
12
8
13
13
9
14
14
13
13
14
13
12
12
14
14
15
16
15
15
15
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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