Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 4 am 13 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.1° C
0.2° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 13 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 20 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 8s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 20 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 8s period, NW swell with 589 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 13 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 9s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.1m 8s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 18) at 5PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8AM (Mon 13th Jul)4.5ft (1.3m) 9s
Best Surf 8AM (Mon 20th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 5AM (Mon 20th Jul)7ft (2.1m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Drakes Estero.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the next couple of days are pretty flat. Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th have some small swell but the conditions are just not coming together for a proper session. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year, so no nasty surprises there.

The first real chance to get wet comes Tuesday morning, the 14th. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the NW with a short 8-second period, so it’s a bit of a windswell. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, which will keep the surface clean. The combined energy is moderate (540). It’s a beginner-friendly spot, so if you’re just getting into it, this could be a fun little session. But don’t expect any world-class waves.

Wednesday morning the 15th is a bit of a letdown – same kind of wind but the swell drops a bit and the period is short. The afternoon kicks up a bit of size to 6ft, but the wind picks up to 19 mph, making it a bit of a battle. The energy is moderate (518).

Thursday the 16th sees the swell building to 8ft by the afternoon, with that short 7-second period. The wind is howling out of the WNW at 22 mph, so it’s going to be a messy, choppy affair. The combined energy (692) is moderate, but the conditions are just poor. This is more of a windsurfing or kiteboarding day than a paddle session.

Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th, the swell drops right off to 2ft to 3ft, but the period jumps up to 15-18 seconds – that’s a proper long-period groundswell. The problem is there’s just not enough height to do anything with it. The energy readings are still moderate (538-794), but you’re looking at tiny, infrequent waves. The wind stays cross-offshore, so it’s clean, but there’s next to nothing to ride.

Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st bring a little more size, back to 4ft-5ft with a short period again. The wind is moderate, so it’s rideable but nothing special. The energy is moderate (454-658).

Now, the standout for me is Wednesday the 22nd. The swell drops to 2ft, but it’s a long-period 16-second groundswell from the SW. The wind is a light 6 mph cross-offshore breeze, so it’s going to be glassy. The combined energy (349) is still moderate, so it’s not a big day, but for a clean, glassy session at Drakes Estero, this is your best bet. It’s the best quality on offer in the whole 16-day window.

After that, from Thursday the 23rd through to the end of the period on the 28th, the swell picks up again, hitting 5ft to 7ft with a mix of directions. The wind stays mostly cross-off or cross, but it gets strong, especially on the 28th with 28 mph winds. The combined energy gets strong (up to 1369), but the conditions are just poor. The 27th morning has a 7ft swell from the NW with a 9-second period and moderate wind – it’s the biggest, but it’s still a marginal call.

Overall, the 16-day window is a bit of a mixed bag. The best clean surf is on the 22nd, but it’s small. The bigger days are blown out. If you’re a beginner, Tuesday the 14th is your best bet for a safe, clean wave. For everyone else, keep an eye on the 22nd.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Mon morning, fresh winds from the NW by Wed night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Thu morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Thu night, light winds from the NW by Sat night).

Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
2
3
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
8
1.5
NW
8
1.4
WNW
7
1.6
WNW
7
1.4
WNW
7
1.9
WNW
7
1.9
WNW
7
1.8
WNW
7
2.4
WNW
7
1.7
WNW
6
1.6
WNW
7
0.7
W
17
0.7
W
16
0.7
W
16
0.7
SW
18
0.7
W
16
0.7
W
15
0.8
SW
17
1.7
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
233
212
240
255
196
243
214
335
397
352
525
232
217
290
254
251
314
239
229
362
363
Wind (km/h)
10
W
15
NW
25
NW
15
WNW
25
NW
30
NW
20
NW
30
NW
30
NW
30
WNW
35
WNW
35
NW
30
NW
25
WNW
30
NW
25
NW
35
NW
30
NW
20
NW
25
NW
20
NW
Wind State
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
1:09PM1.40m
11:29PM2.06m
1:53PM1.45m
00:23AM2.02m
2:34PM1.49m
1:16AM1.93m
3:15PM1.53m
2:09AM1.79m
3:55PM1.58m
3:04AM1.60m
4:34PM1.61m
4:03AM1.40m
5:14PM1.64m
Low Tide
5:58PM0.85m
7:14AM-0.45m
6:55PM0.79m
8:00AM-0.43m
7:52PM0.72m
8:44AM-0.35m
8:50PM0.65m
9:27AM-0.22m
9:51PM0.59m
10:08AM-0.05m
10:54PM0.53m
10:50AM0.15m
00:01AM0.46m
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clear
clear
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clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
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<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:58
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:01
6:03
6:03
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:35
8:34
8:34
8:32
8:32
8:31
8:30
 mm
Temp °C
16
15
13
14
14
13
14
14
13
13
14
13
13
14
13
13
13
12
14
13
12
Feels °C
15
13
10
12
10
7
10
10
6
8
8
6
8
9
8
8
8
5
11
9
7
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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