Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 31 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,857 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 19s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let me break down what's on the surf menu for this spot over the next couple of weeks.
The first real opportunity we’re looking at is a bit of a slow start, but things pick up. The opening few days of Friday and Saturday (July 31st and August 1st) are looking pretty average with messy cross-off winds and a lot of short-period energy, so we’ll skip those. The first session worth paddling out for is Sunday, August 2nd. The morning is looking tidy with a gentle breeze and a clean 7ft swell from the WNW. The combined energy is moderate, sitting at 793. The water temp is currently 56°F, which is about 1°F cooler than the long-term average for this time of year, so it’s a touch chilly but nothing crazy. The standout session of the whole run, though, is Monday, August 3rd in the afternoon. You’ve got a 5ft WNW swell with a 10-second period, light cross-offshore winds, and the wave comment is "expect very good surf conditions." The combined energy (582) is moderate, but the cleanliness and the wind are the real winners here. That’s the one to circle.
The following week, things get a bit more inconsistent. There's a solid run from Sunday, August 9th morning through Monday, August 10th morning. The Sunday afternoon has a 5ft WNW swell, light cross-offshore winds, and the wave comment is "expect very good surf conditions." The Monday morning (August 10th) is also clean with a 4ft WNW swell and that same cross-offshore breeze. After that, the swell drops off significantly. From Tuesday, August 11th onward, we’re into small, long-period SW groundswells, but the energy is weak and the wave quality drops. The 2ft to 3ft swell is just too small to get excited about, and the winds are variable, often cross-shore or onshore. By the time we get to August 14th and 15th, the combined energy picks up a bit with long-period SW swell, but the onshore winds and poor surf conditions mean it’s not worth the paddle. The best bet is absolutely the Monday (August 3rd) afternoon session.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Fri morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sat night, light winds from the NNW by Sun night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | NW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | NW 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 289 | 384 | 372 | 292 | 840 | 888 | 687 | 817 | 1857 | 648 | 500 | 424 | 249 | 222 | 173 | 251 | 241 | 190 | 211 | 190 | 384 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-off | on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross | on | cross | cross |
High Tide | 2:48PM1.44m | 1:43AM1.61m | 3:14PM1.49m | 2:27AM1.51m | 3:42PM1.55m | 3:17AM1.37m | 4:12PM1.62m | 4:19AM1.23m | 4:48PM1.68m | 5:43AM1.11m | 5:31PM1.74m | 7:31AM1.07m | 6:23PM1.79m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:23AM-0.09m | 8:26PM0.70m | 8:52AM-0.02m | 9:09PM0.63m | 9:23AM0.09m | 9:58PM0.55m | 9:56AM0.25m | 10:54PM0.46m | 10:32AM0.43m | 11:58PM0.36m | 11:16AM0.61m | 1:10AM0.24m | 12:12PM0.78m | 2:23AM0.11m | |||||||
 |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  | | | | |
 | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — |
 | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:21 | — | — | 8:20 | — | — | 8:19 | — | — | 8:17 | — | — | 8:16 | — | — | 8:15 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 10 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 9 | SSW 13 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | NW 10 |
| kJ | 289 | 277 | 210 | 133 | 129 | 70 | 687 | 69 | 1045 | 648 | 500 | 424 | 249 | 222 | 173 | 251 | 241 | 190 | 211 | 190 | 384 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | — | W 21 | SW 15 | S 11 | SSW 12 | SW 14 | S 10 | SW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 173 | — | 9 | 35 | 37 | 28 | 65 | 17 | 44 | 66 | 41 | 37 | 80 | 77 | 73 | 69 | 68 | 87 | 61 | 61 | 60 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 19 | S 10 | SSW 11 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | S 9 | SW 20 | SSW 20 | SW 18 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 15 | 15 | 8 | 41 | 49 | 49 | 42 | 41 | 64 | 36 | 36 | 26 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 60 | 37 | 81 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | — | WNW 9 | NW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 263 | 384 | 372 | 292 | 840 | 888 | — | 817 | 1857 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 26 | 145 | 26 | 26 | 144 | 26 | 0 | 490 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 75 | 17 | 5 | 240 | 23 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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