
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,764 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 19s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the next couple of weeks for Drakes Estero.
First thing to note is the water temperature here is sitting right around average for the time of year, so nothing unusual there. The week ahead kicks off with a bit of a mixed bag. Saturday morning the 1st of August brings in a 7ft northwest swell, but with a moderate northwesterly breeze, it’s a bit of a messy cross-offshore wind. The wave energy is moderate (963), but the conditions just aren't clean enough to get excited about. The afternoon gets even worse with the wind ramping up to a strong breeze, so really, Saturday is a write-off.
The best window in the near-term looks like Sunday morning, the 2nd of August. We’ve got a solid 7ft swell from the west-northwest with a gentle breeze, keeping it clean. The energy is a healthy moderate 808, and the cross-offshore wind is going to hold those lines together. This is probably the standout for the first week, but remember, at 7ft, it’s pushing it for beginners.
Monday the 3rd is a sneaky second option. The morning is a bit of a question mark with a light southerly onshore wind, but the afternoon turns better. A 5ft WNW swell with a light cross-offshore breeze and clean conditions – that’s a nice session for the intermediate crew.
After that, the middle of the week goes flat and poor. From Tuesday the 4th through to Friday the 7th, we’re looking at small, weak swells and mostly onshore or cross-onshore winds. The wave energy drops to the low hundreds, and the quality is poor. It’s a real dead spell.
The following weekend, the 8th and 9th, sees a pulse of new energy. The 9th of August (Sunday) has a 7ft WNW swell with a period of 11 seconds, and the energy is strong (1073). The wind is light and variable, but the morning is onshore and the afternoon is a light cross-shore. It’s a big swell, so really only for the experienced crew, and the wind isn’t perfect.
The second week then turns into a bit of a frustrating pattern. The swell continues to arrive, but the wind is often cross-onshore or onshore, keeping the quality marginal. The 14th of August (Friday) afternoon offers a glimmer of hope with a 3ft WNW swell, clean conditions, and a light cross-offshore breeze. The energy is weak (395), but it’s a fun little window for a longboard or a mini-mal.
The final days, the 15th and 16th of August, are a sad end. The swell is tiny (2ft to 3ft) and from the southwest, with a very long period of 15-16 seconds. That sort of long-period swell tends to break straight and close out at a beach setup like this. The wind is strong and cross-offshore, making it clean but the swell is just too small and weak. Honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on those days.
So, to sum it up: the standout is Sunday morning, the 2nd of August. Get it while it’s good. The rest of the window is a mix of poor conditions and small, wind-affected swell. The long-range stuff is promising in size, but the wind just doesn’t want to cooperate.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat morning, min 12°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sat night, light winds from the NNW by Sun night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue morning, min 12°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | NW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
372 | 503 | 840 | 888 | 702 | 835 | 1764 | 661 | 490 | 470 | 292 | 244 | 177 | 141 | 246 | 198 | 221 | 258 | 448 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-off | on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross | on | cross | on |
High Tide | 1:43AM1.61m | 3:14PM1.49m | 2:27AM1.51m | 3:42PM1.55m | 3:17AM1.37m | 4:12PM1.62m | 4:19AM1.23m | 4:48PM1.68m | 5:43AM1.11m | 5:31PM1.74m | 7:31AM1.07m | 6:23PM1.79m | |||||||
Low Tide | 8:26PM0.70m | 8:52AM-0.02m | 9:09PM0.63m | 9:23AM0.09m | 9:58PM0.55m | 9:56AM0.25m | 10:54PM0.46m | 10:32AM0.43m | 11:58PM0.36m | 11:16AM0.61m | 1:10AM0.24m | 12:12PM0.78m | 2:23AM0.11m | ||||||
— | 6:13 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | |
8:22 | — | 8:21 | — | — | 8:20 | — | — | 8:19 | — | — | 8:17 | — | — | 8:16 | — | — | 8:15 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 6 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 9 | SSW 13 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 10 |
210 | 292 | 129 | 70 | 702 | 69 | 1022 | 661 | 490 | 470 | 292 | 244 | 177 | 141 | 246 | 198 | 221 | 258 | 448 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 21 | SSW 13 | S 11 | SSW 12 | SW 14 | S 10 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | NW 10 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
9 | 133 | 37 | 28 | 65 | 17 | 67 | 66 | 41 | 37 | 80 | 77 | 73 | 50 | 68 | 87 | 61 | 61 | 60 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 15 | SW 19 | S 10 | SSW 11 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 14 | SSW 11 | S 9 | SW 19 | SSW 20 | SW 18 |
— | 35 | 15 | 8 | 41 | 49 | 49 | 42 | 41 | 64 | 36 | 36 | 26 | 69 | 23 | 7 | 59 | 37 | 81 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | — | WNW 9 | NW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
372 | 503 | 840 | 888 | — | 835 | 1764 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 26 | 26 | 144 | 26 | 0 | 462 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 75 | 23 | 5 | 145 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











