Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way at Drakes Estero.

First thing you gotta know is the water is sitting at 57° right now, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a nice little bonus.

Right now, the outlook is a bit of a mixed bag for the next two weeks. We’ve got swell on the table pretty much every day, but the wind is a persistent problem. For the first week and a half, it’s almost all cross-offshore from the northwest, which is generally okay for shape, but the speeds are a real killer. We’re talking a solid 15 mph to 25 mph nearly every session, which is going to put a lot of texture on the face. It’ll be clean-looking from the beach, but out in the lineup, it’s going to be bumpy and challenging.

The biggest spike in energy comes on Thursday, July 9th, with a combined energy of 1681 and a morning swell of 8ft from the NW. That’s a lot of power. But the period is only 9 seconds, so it’s a short-period windswell, not a clean groundswell. The wind is still 15 mph cross-off, so it’s not going to be the classic Drakes Estero you dream about. It’s a powerful, messy option for the experienced crew only, as anything over 8ft in size gets into expert territory with that wind.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of Monday, July 13th. The swell drops to a more manageable 7ft from the NW, and the wind eases to a gentle 9 mph cross-off. That’s the lightest wind we see in that first part of the window. The combined energy is still a solid 1073, so there’s push. It’s the closest we get to a clean, drivable wave. The period is still short at 8 seconds, so it won’t be the most lined-up wave, but it’ll be the most fun you’ll have in this stretch.

After that, things get ugly. The wind picks back up hard, hitting 31 mph on Wednesday, July 15th, with a 10ft swell. That’s not paddle surfing; that’s a kite session if you’re brave enough. The poor surf conditions rating is spot on there.

Then we hit a shift. From Saturday, July 18th, the swell drops right off. We’re looking at 2ft to 3ft for the rest of the run. The wind gets lighter, mostly below 12 mph, and we start seeing some longer-period groundswell sneaking in – 14 to 17 seconds. That’s a proper, long-period energy (combined energy in the 500-800 range), but the size is tiny. The direction swings around to the west and southwest, which is good for the bank, but it’s a small-wave summer vibe. The morning of Monday, July 20th, with a 3ft, 14-second SW swell and light 6 mph wind, is about as good as it gets in that second week. It’ll be clean and glassy, but you’ll be on a longboard or a fish.

For the best of the bunch, I’m calling it: Monday morning, July 13th, is the pick for the first week. It’s the most balanced combo of size and lighter wind. For the second week, keep an eye on Monday, July 20th, for a clean, small, long-period swell.

Signing off, Rusty.

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