Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Looks like we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag on our hands for the next couple of weeks at Drakes Estero. Don’t get too excited just yet – the first proper swell doesn’t show up for a few days, so you’ll be waiting until Wednesday the 8th for anything worth paddling out for.

Wednesday, July 8th is where things start to look interesting. The morning session is your best bet for a clean wave. We’re looking at a 3.3ft swell out of the SW with a solid 18-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, and with moderate cross-offshore winds, it’ll be clean. The combined wave energy is sitting at 1402 (moderate), so there's some punch behind it. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so nothing wild there. Just keep in mind, those long-period SW swells can sometimes feel a bit straight at a beach/river setup like this, but with the tide right, it should offer up some fun ones.

Things go a bit weird from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday and Friday. The swell bumps up – we’re seeing 7.2ft to 8.2ft from the WNW, but the period drops to a short 8 or 9 seconds, so it's going to be a bit crumbly and less organized. The wind stays clean and offshore, so the faces will look good, but it’s going to be a lot of lumpy, weak energy. The combined energy values are high (over 1200), but that short-period chop makes it a mushy mess. By Saturday, July 11th, the wind swings onshore out of the SSE, and the whole thing turns to junk – poor surf conditions with chop. Not worth it.

For the second week, there’s a glimmer of hope if you’re patient. Wednesday, July 15th afternoon stands out. An 8.2ft swell from the WNW, period around 7 seconds, but the wind is a light cross-offshore breeze, and the report says “expect very good surf conditions.” The combined energy is 739 (moderate). It’s a bit big for beginners, but for the experienced crew, that’s a session to circle on the calendar. Thursday, July 16th afternoon is another decent look with similar size and clean conditions.

Saturday, July 18th afternoon is a real monster – a 9.8ft swell from the WNW, but the report warns it’s predicted to be too big for this break. The energy is 1098 (strong). That’s for experts only, and even then, expect a washing machine. After that, Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th are blown out by onshore winds and messy cross-shore chop.

Overall, the standout is Wednesday, July 8th morning for the best quality with that long-period groundswell, and Wednesday, July 15th afternoon as a promising but less certain second-week option if the forecasts hold. Crowds are possible at Drakes Estero, especially when it’s clean, so get in early.

Read more