Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 4 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 5PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,159 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 3 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 10s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 8AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 5PM (Mon 10th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at Drakes Estero over the next two weeks.
First off, the early part is a no-go. From Monday the 3rd through Wednesday the 5th, the surf is flat and poor. You’ll have a 3-day gap with nothing worthwhile. The wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is small and weak. Not worth the drive.
From Thursday the 6th to the weekend, it’s still very small. Swell heights are around 2 to 2 feet (0.5m) with low energy (around 191 to 237). The wind does go clean and cross-offshore, so if you’ve got a longboard and a lot of patience, you might find a little chest-high wave. But it’s not a call to action.
The real standout is Monday the 10th of August. The morning session is the one to wake up for. We’ve got a clean 6-foot (1.8m) swell from the WNW, with a 9-second period, and the wind is glassy – dead calm. That’s about as perfect as it gets for this spot. The combined energy is moderate (661). Water is a bit cooler than average at 55°F (13°), so bring a thicker suit. That morning is your best bet.
The afternoon of the 10th jumps to 10 feet (3.0m), which is too big for this beginner-friendly beach and river setup. Tuesday the 11th sees 7 to 10 feet (2 to 3.0m) with clean wind, but again, it’s too powerful for the Estero. Experienced guys on bigger boards might get a few, but the current will be strong.
The middle of the second week is windy and rough. Wednesday the 12th has 6-foot (1.9m) swell but winds are 25 mph (40 km/h). Thursday the 13th is even windier at 28 mph (45 km/h). The best chance later in the week is Friday the 14th afternoon, with a light breeze and 4-foot (1.2m) swell – a clean, fun little session.
The 17th and 18th see another pulse of 10-foot (3.0m) swell, but with a short 8-second period, it’ll be lumpy and powerful. Too big for the spot.
Bottom line: Monday the 10th in the morning is your winner. Everything else is a wait-and-see.
Rusty, out.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed afternoon, min 12°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri morning, fresh winds from the NW by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 14 | WNW 9 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 16 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 615 | 461 | 266 | 181 | 157 | 103 | 69 | 108 | 111 | 84 | 84 | 81 | 85 | 181 | 133 | 204 | 202 | 699 | 551 | 844 | 971 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross | on | on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 4:12PM1.62m | 4:19AM1.23m | 4:48PM1.68m | 5:43AM1.11m | 5:31PM1.74m | 7:31AM1.07m | 6:23PM1.79m | 9:12AM1.13m | 7:24PM1.84m | 10:25AM1.23m | 8:28PM1.90m | 11:17AM1.32m | 9:31PM1.96m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:56AM0.25m | 10:54PM0.46m | 10:32AM0.43m | 11:58PM0.36m | 11:16AM0.61m | 1:10AM0.24m | 12:12PM0.78m | 2:23AM0.11m | 1:27PM0.90m | 3:30AM-0.03m | 2:48PM0.94m | 4:30AM-0.16m | 3:59PM0.91m | ||||||||
 | |  | | | | | | |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — |
 | — | 8:19 | — | — | 8:17 | — | — | 8:16 | — | — | 8:15 | — | — | 8:14 | — | — | 8:13 | — | — | 8:12 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 14 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | SW 19 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 615 | 461 | 266 | 181 | 157 | 103 | 57 | 108 | 79 | 47 | 47 | 46 | 70 | 181 | 133 | 130 | 202 | 169 | 169 | 148 | 104 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | NW 10 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SSW 18 | SW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 |
| kJ | 66 | 63 | 37 | 80 | 77 | 73 | 35 | 68 | 111 | 84 | 84 | 78 | 82 | 77 | 82 | 204 | 35 | 56 | 22 | 26 | 25 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SSW 11 | S 9 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 18 | W 15 | W 12 | SW 11 | WNW 11 | SW 23 | S 9 | SW 21 | SW 21 |
| kJ | 42 | 41 | 64 | 36 | 36 | 34 | 69 | 12 | 7 | 60 | 60 | 81 | 85 | 17 | 28 | 31 | 25 | 21 | 2 | 18 | 72 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 6 | — | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 72 | 77 | — | 166 | 699 | 551 | 844 | 971 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 147 | 5 | 37 | 75 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 0 | 145 | 215 | 23 | 0 | 490 | 26 | 32 | 145 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)- Wind Speed (km/h)
Latest Updates
FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Drakes Estero surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
Nearest