Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, my fellow wave riders, Rusty here to break it down.

We’ve got a long stretch of small but clean swells lined up for Drakes Estero. This is a classic beach and river mouth spot that faces the southwest, so it needs the right angle to work. For the first week or so, the waves are on the smaller side, but the conditions are going to be tidy, perfect for a beginner. The water temperature is about 55.6°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no need to grab the thickest wetsuit.

The action starts on Sunday, July 19th. We’ve got a 2.0ft swell from the west, with a 15-second period. That’s a nice, long groundswell, so it’ll have some punch and shape, even if it’s small. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the west at 10 km/h, and the combined energy is 436. It’s clean and looking fun. Sunday afternoon bumps up to 2.6ft from the southwest, with a 17-second period and a 15 km/h cross-offshore breeze. The energy jumps to 628. This is a solid window for the early days – very clean.

Monday, July 20th, might be the pick of the early run. The morning is glassy. We’re talking 5 km/h wind from the WNW, with a 2.0ft, 16-second swell from the southwest. The energy is 428, and the water is like a mirror. This is the kind of session you live for. The afternoon gets a bit bigger at 2.6ft, still with a good period and cross-offshore wind.

Tuesday, July 21st, stays similar, with 2.6ft in the morning from the SSW and a 13-second period, but the wind picks up to 15 km/h. The afternoon gets breezier at 20 km/h, and the wave quality drops a little, but it’s still clean.

Wednesday, July 22nd, looks a bit more marginal. The sizes are around 2.3ft, but the wind is a bit cross-shore in the morning with some ripples. The afternoon is better with a clean cross-offshore breeze, but the energy drops to 262. It’s rideable, but not the best.

Thursday, July 23rd, is a mixed bag. The morning is good with a 2.6ft, 14-second swell and a light 10 km/h cross-offshore wind. The afternoon, however, brings a stronger 25 km/h wind from the northwest, which will chop it up. The morning is your window.

Now, the standout of the whole run is likely Friday, July 24th. The morning has a 2.0ft swell from the southwest, but the period is 24 seconds. That’s a crazy long-period groundswell. The energy is a massive 810, which is impressive for the size. The wind is a gentle 15 km/h cross-offshore. This is a session for the longboard or a fish, where you’ll feel every bit of that deep ocean energy. The afternoon is also good, but the wind picks up to 20 km/h.

Saturday, July 25th, has a bigger 3.0ft swell, still with a 21-second period, and the energy is 1148 in the morning. That’s moderate wave energy, and it’s clean. The afternoon gets a fresh 30 km/h breeze, which will put some texture on the faces, so the morning is the go.

The following week, from July 26th through to August 2nd, the swell stays in the 2.6ft to 3.6ft range, but the wind becomes a real problem. From the 26th onwards, the afternoon winds are consistently strong, hitting 40 km/h and even 50 km/h on the 27th. That’s near gale force, and the surf quality takes a big hit. The energy is still there – sometimes over 1200 – but the wind is just too much for a clean paddle. The morning sessions on the 27th and 28th are still manageable with 20-25 km/h winds, but it’s not the same as the first week.

The 28th of July is a wild one. The afternoon sees an 8.2ft swell from the WNW, but the period is a short 8 seconds. That’s a windswell, and it’s going to be a mess with 45 km/h winds. Definitely not for beginners, and even experts will have to be careful. The 29th has a similar vibe with a 6.9ft, 8-second swell and strong winds.

The final few days into August see the swell settling back to 2.6ft to 3.6ft, with the wind easing slightly. The 1st of August has a promising morning with a 3.

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