Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 6 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 9 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,212 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 6 Aug, 5PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 06) at 5PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 5s period and expected on Friday (Aug 07) at 5AM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5PM (Thu 6th Aug) | 1.5ft (0.5m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 2AM (Sun 9th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 5AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Hey, it’s Rusty. Let’s break down what’s on the table at Drakes Estero.
First off, the start is flat and a bit sad. Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th are tiny, with swell around 2ft to 2ft, light cross-shore winds, and weak energy. Water temp is 56°, right where you’d expect it. Nothing worth getting wet for.
Saturday the 8th stays small – 2ft SSW swell, still marginal. Then Sunday the 9th hits. We get a solid NW swell jumping to 8ft, short period at 9 seconds, and clean cross-offshore winds from the NW at 15 mph. The combined energy is massive at 1718. That’s the one. The swell direction matches the optimum, so it should line up well. At that size, it’s for experts only – too much for beginners. The short period will make the waves steep and punchy.
Monday the 10th drops to 5ft, same short-period WNW swell, but the wind turns light cross-on, making it a bit messy. Energy drops to 559. Surfable, but not special.
Tuesday the 11th holds around 5ft with clean afternoon winds. Still marginal. Then we hit a long dry spell from Wednesday the 12th through the weekend – mostly onshore winds, poor conditions, and swell fading under 3ft. A few days of nothing much.
Monday the 17th gives us a tiny glimmer: clean winds, 3ft SW swell with a long 15-second period. That’s groundswell, which can bring lined-up waves, but the energy is low at 356.
The second week stays lean. A few clean mornings on the 18th and 19th with NW winds and small swell (2ft to 3ft). The best late window is Thursday the 20th morning: 3ft WNW swell, 12-second period, cross-offshore breeze, and energy at 383. It’s promising, but that’s a long way out and not a sure thing.
The standout is Sunday the 9th – that’s your call if you’re experienced. Otherwise, it’s a pretty quiet run. This spot can be inconsistent, and it’s showing that now. But things can change.
Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Sun night, calm by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 16 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | NW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 84 | 84 | 81 | 85 | 181 | 133 | 204 | 202 | 1065 | 951 | 617 | 941 | 398 | 311 | 415 | 500 | 386 | 588 | 378 | 261 | 302 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | on | on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 6:23PM1.79m | 9:12AM1.13m | 7:24PM1.84m | 10:25AM1.23m | 8:28PM1.90m | 11:17AM1.32m | 9:31PM1.96m | 12:01PM1.40m | 10:30PM1.99m | 12:41PM1.46m | 11:25PM1.98m | 1:19PM1.52m | 00:18AM1.93m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:12PM0.78m | 2:23AM0.11m | 1:27PM0.90m | 3:30AM-0.03m | 2:48PM0.94m | 4:30AM-0.16m | 3:59PM0.91m | 5:23AM-0.25m | 5:00PM0.83m | 6:10AM-0.30m | 5:56PM0.73m | 6:54AM-0.29m | 6:49PM0.62m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — |
 | — | 8:15 | — | — | 8:14 | — | — | 8:13 | — | — | 8:12 | — | — | 8:10 | — | — | 8:09 | — | — | 8:08 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 13 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 12 | WNW 6 | SW 19 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 |
| kJ | 47 | 39 | 77 | 47 | 181 | 86 | 123 | 93 | 703 | 576 | 148 | 142 | 398 | 311 | 415 | 500 | 386 | 588 | 378 | 261 | 302 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 84 | 84 | 81 | 82 | 77 | 82 | 204 | 202 | 169 | 169 | 25 | 24 | 138 | 92 | 69 | 70 | 100 | 194 | 108 | 130 | 161 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 20 | NW 8 | SW 18 | W 15 | SW 16 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SSW 11 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 12 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 60 | 60 | 18 | 85 | 17 | 133 | 31 | 35 | 37 | 22 | 18 | 72 | 23 | 60 | 97 | 94 | 113 | 28 | 65 | 67 | 27 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WNW 4 | — | WNW 7 | — | — | — | NW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 3 | S 4 | SSE 4 |
| kJ | — | — | 15 | — | 44 | — | — | — | 1065 | 951 | 617 | 941 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 48 | 0 | 0 | 430 | 215 | 0 | 48 | 490 | 0 | 26 | 145 | 23 | 268 | 190 | 5 | 5 | 457 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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