Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 13 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 17 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,461 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 12 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Sun 12th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 5PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s shaping up for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks. It’s a mixed bag of clean windows and windy slop, with a couple of real gems to aim for.
The water is sitting at 56°F right now, which is dead average for this time of year. Nothing special.
Sunday 12th July starts slow. The morning is a bit messy with a light southerly breeze. The afternoon turns it around: a clean 4ft WNW swell with a cross-offshore breeze. Perfect for a longboard session, with moderate energy (431). Monday 13th July morning is the clear standout of the first week. Clean 6ft NW swell, cross-off winds, and the energy jumps to 824. That’s the best wave of the early days—fun, clean, and with plenty of push. Crowds are *sometimes* around, but it’s not a madhouse.
Things get rough from Monday afternoon. The wind picks up, and even though the swell stays, the quality drops. Tuesday 14th has a 5ft WNW swell but the wind is up to 30 km/h, making it choppy. Wednesday 15th afternoon sees a huge 10ft WNW swell roll in, but the wind is screaming at 40 km/h. That’s way too big for this break, and with that wind, it’s a kite-surfing show, not a paddle-surfing one. The energy is very strong (1243).
Thursday 16th and Friday 17th are a total write-off with strong winds and poor conditions. There’s a gap of a few days with no real recommendations.
Saturday 18th and Sunday 19th settle down. The swell drops to 2ft, but we get a very long-period groundswell (16-17 seconds) from the west and southwest. At a beach/river setup, it might break a bit straight, but the winds are light and clean. Moderate energy (557-645). A good day for a longboard.
Monday 20th through Tuesday 21st are tiny, with the swell around 2-3ft. Light winds, but small waves.
Now for the promise in the second week. Wednesday 22nd July morning looks very good. Clean, 3ft SW swell with a 16-second period, light cross-offshore breeze, and moderate energy (583). A lovely, clean wave.
Friday 24th July afternoon has a 5ft WNW swell with a 10-second period and light cross-shore wind. Strong energy (1029). But the real standout is Saturday 25th July morning. Clean, 4ft SSW swell, long-period 13 seconds, light cross-offshore breeze, and excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The energy is strong (1065). That’s a beauty. Sunday 26th gets too windy again, with 50 km/h winds, so that’s your window.
Monday 27th is back to small, clean, but unremarkable.
So, the best surf on offer is Monday 13th July morning for a solid, clean 6ft wave, and Saturday 25th July morning for a beautifully clean, long-period swell with excellent conditions. The rest is a bit of a wait, but keep your eyes on that Saturday morning.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Sun morning, fresh winds from the NW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri morning, min 11°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Wed night, light winds from the N by Thu night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | W 16 | W 16 | W 16 | W 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 217 | 217 | 502 | 390 | 365 | 327 | 253 | 395 | 397 | 354 | 1093 | 809 | 587 | 1060 | 1461 | 435 | 326 | 254 | 251 | 248 | 177 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | on | on | on | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 12:22PM1.33m | 10:35PM2.05m | 1:09PM1.40m | 11:29PM2.06m | 1:53PM1.45m | 00:23AM2.02m | 2:34PM1.49m | 1:16AM1.93m | 3:15PM1.53m | 2:09AM1.79m | 3:55PM1.58m | 3:04AM1.60m | 4:34PM1.61m | 4:03AM1.40m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:00PM0.88m | 6:25AM-0.42m | 5:58PM0.85m | 7:14AM-0.45m | 6:55PM0.79m | 8:00AM-0.43m | 7:52PM0.72m | 8:44AM-0.35m | 8:50PM0.65m | 9:27AM-0.22m | 9:51PM0.59m | 10:08AM-0.05m | 10:54PM0.53m | ||||||||
 | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | |  |  | | | |
 | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — |
 | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:34 | — | — | 8:34 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:31 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 13 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 11 | WNW 10 |
| kJ | 217 | 217 | 343 | 255 | 156 | 154 | 106 | 85 | 60 | 60 | 56 | 90 | 89 | 89 | 827 | 435 | 326 | 194 | 116 | 196 | 125 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | W 14 | SW 19 | W 14 | W 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | W 20 | W 19 | W 19 | W 18 | W 17 | W 17 | W 16 | W 16 | W 16 | W 16 |
| kJ | 200 | 208 | 206 | 158 | 34 | 96 | 36 | 65 | 152 | 108 | 73 | 127 | 116 | 114 | 159 | 217 | 215 | 254 | 251 | 248 | 177 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 18 | W 18 | W 16 | W 16 | WSW 20 | W 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | W 13 | W 13 | SW 23 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 18 | S 14 |
| kJ | 24 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 37 | 38 | 58 | 50 | 56 | 31 | 21 | 27 | 27 | 13 | 77 | 130 | 74 | 53 | 190 | 201 | 102 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 502 | 390 | 365 | 327 | 253 | 395 | 397 | 354 | 1093 | 809 | 587 | 1060 | 1461 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 490 | 26 | 48 | 144 | 26 | 26 | 145 | 48 | 145 | 145 | 23 | 48 | 37 | 5 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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