Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the next couple of weeks for Drakes Estero.

First thing to note is the water temperature here is sitting right around average for the time of year, so nothing unusual there. The week ahead kicks off with a bit of a mixed bag. Saturday morning the 1st of August brings in a 7ft northwest swell, but with a moderate northwesterly breeze, it’s a bit of a messy cross-offshore wind. The wave energy is moderate (963), but the conditions just aren't clean enough to get excited about. The afternoon gets even worse with the wind ramping up to a strong breeze, so really, Saturday is a write-off.

The best window in the near-term looks like Sunday morning, the 2nd of August. We’ve got a solid 7ft swell from the west-northwest with a gentle breeze, keeping it clean. The energy is a healthy moderate 808, and the cross-offshore wind is going to hold those lines together. This is probably the standout for the first week, but remember, at 7ft, it’s pushing it for beginners.

Monday the 3rd is a sneaky second option. The morning is a bit of a question mark with a light southerly onshore wind, but the afternoon turns better. A 5ft WNW swell with a light cross-offshore breeze and clean conditions – that’s a nice session for the intermediate crew.

After that, the middle of the week goes flat and poor. From Tuesday the 4th through to Friday the 7th, we’re looking at small, weak swells and mostly onshore or cross-onshore winds. The wave energy drops to the low hundreds, and the quality is poor. It’s a real dead spell.

The following weekend, the 8th and 9th, sees a pulse of new energy. The 9th of August (Sunday) has a 7ft WNW swell with a period of 11 seconds, and the energy is strong (1073). The wind is light and variable, but the morning is onshore and the afternoon is a light cross-shore. It’s a big swell, so really only for the experienced crew, and the wind isn’t perfect.

The second week then turns into a bit of a frustrating pattern. The swell continues to arrive, but the wind is often cross-onshore or onshore, keeping the quality marginal. The 14th of August (Friday) afternoon offers a glimmer of hope with a 3ft WNW swell, clean conditions, and a light cross-offshore breeze. The energy is weak (395), but it’s a fun little window for a longboard or a mini-mal.

The final days, the 15th and 16th of August, are a sad end. The swell is tiny (2ft to 3ft) and from the southwest, with a very long period of 15-16 seconds. That sort of long-period swell tends to break straight and close out at a beach setup like this. The wind is strong and cross-offshore, making it clean but the swell is just too small and weak. Honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on those days.

So, to sum it up: the standout is Sunday morning, the 2nd of August. Get it while it’s good. The rest of the window is a mix of poor conditions and small, wind-affected swell. The long-range stuff is promising in size, but the wind just doesn’t want to cooperate.

Rusty.

Read more