Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 11 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 12 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 9s period, WNW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 16 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 502 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 10 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 9s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 3s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 16) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 11PM (Mon 10th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 2AM (Wed 12th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, checking in on Drakes Estero. We’ve got a long 16-day stretch ahead, and I’ll be straight with you—it’s not firing. Swell energy is moderate, in the hundreds, but the quality is all over the place. Water temp is 58°F, which is dead average for the season, so no surprises there.
We kick off Monday the 10th with a 5ft swell from the WNW, but that wind is cross-on. It’s choppy and weak. Tuesday through Thursday are even worse—onshore winds, small junk, and poor conditions. Honestly, it’s a rough start.
Then Friday the 14th afternoon shows up. The swell drops to 2ft, but it swings to SSW with a long 18-second period. The wind goes cross-off from the WNW, and it’s clean. That’s your first real window. Small, but that long period groundswell will wrap around the point and give you clean, lined-up waves. Not for beginners, but for a longboard, it’s a treat.
Saturday the 15th is a write-off, but Sunday the 16th afternoon is the best of the run. Swell is 3ft from the SW, period 15 seconds, and the wind is cross-off from the west. Clean as a whistle. The energy hits 580, the highest we see. That’s your top pick—clean, glassy, and with a bit of grunt for the size.
After that, it goes quiet. Monday the 17th through Wednesday the 19th have some clean moments, but the swell is tiny: 2ft to 3ft at best. Thursday the 20th morning is clean with 2ft, but it’s marginal. Friday the 21st afternoon shows a small clean pulse.
Into the second week, Saturday the 22nd sees a jump to 4ft from the WNW, but the period is short at 8 seconds. That’s dumpy and fat. Sunday the 23rd afternoon cleans up with cross-off wind and 3ft. Monday the 24th morning is clean with 4ft, but still short period.
Tuesday the 25th has some potential: swell hits 5ft to 5ft from the WNW, period 8-9 seconds, energy over 500. The wind is cross-off all day from the NW, but it gets strong in the afternoon—16 mph. For paddle surfing, the morning is the call. With that wind and size, the kite crew might have more fun.
So, to sum it up: Sunday the 16th afternoon is the standout—clean, long-period SW swell, best energy of the stretch. Friday the 14th afternoon is a close second for the quiet wave seekers. The rest is mostly small and clean, with a few punchy but short-period days. It’s not a classic, but there are windows.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue morning, min 11°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 354 | 244 | 280 | 249 | 194 | 307 | 222 | 222 | 207 | 228 | 212 | 191 | 174 | 223 | 255 | 414 | 381 | 502 | 489 | 465 | 251 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | on | on | cross-on | glassy | on | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | glassy | on | cross-off | cross | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 12:01PM1.40m | 10:30PM1.99m | 12:41PM1.46m | 11:25PM1.98m | 1:19PM1.52m | 00:18AM1.93m | 1:54PM1.57m | 1:09AM1.82m | 2:29PM1.62m | 2:01AM1.68m | 3:03PM1.65m | 2:54AM1.51m | 3:36PM1.67m | 3:52AM1.34m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:00PM0.83m | 6:10AM-0.30m | 5:56PM0.73m | 6:54AM-0.29m | 6:49PM0.62m | 7:35AM-0.23m | 7:41PM0.52m | 8:14AM-0.12m | 8:33PM0.45m | 8:52AM0.03m | 9:25PM0.39m | 9:29AM0.22m | 10:19PM0.35m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | | | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — |
 | — | 8:10 | — | — | 8:09 | — | — | 8:08 | — | — | 8:07 | — | — | 8:06 | — | — | 8:05 | — | — | 8:04 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
| kJ | 354 | 244 | 280 | 249 | 194 | 307 | 222 | 222 | 207 | 228 | 212 | 125 | 95 | 74 | 47 | 414 | 381 | 502 | 489 | 465 | 251 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 10 | S 10 | SSW 12 |
| kJ | 138 | 92 | 87 | 87 | 100 | 194 | 150 | 130 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 191 | 174 | 223 | 255 | 28 | 36 | 30 | 57 | 19 | 90 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 11 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 12 | SW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 10 | SW 13 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | WNW 10 |
| kJ | 12 | 60 | 97 | 94 | 113 | 28 | 42 | 67 | 27 | 21 | 21 | 18 | 97 | 102 | 169 | 19 | 44 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 31 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 2 | S 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 10 | WNW 3 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 77 | 4 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 190 | 5 | 5 | 180 | 0 | 5 | 185 | 5 | 5 | 145 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 75 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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