Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 1,094 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 12 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 8s period with NW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.3m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.8m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 14s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Sun 12th Jul) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Drakes Estero. It’s a beach and river mouth setup, mostly beginner-friendly, and wants the swell from the SW to really line up. Water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual.
We’re off to a slow start. Friday the 10th is blown out with a fresh cross-off breeze at 22 mph, hammering a 7 ft to 8 ft WNW swell. Not worth it. Saturday the 11th stays cross-off and lumpy, with 5 ft to 6 ft waves and short-period energy (443–584 combined energy). Still no.
Sunday the 12th is where it turns. Lighter breeze, only 6 mph, with a 5 ft WNW swell and 9-second period. The cross-off wind keeps it clean, and the energy hits 622 – moderate but the best we’ve seen. That morning session has real promise. Monday the 13th morning goes glassy with a WSW cross-shore at 6 mph, and a 5 ft WNW swell. Light ripples on the surface, energy at 585, but still marginal.
From Tuesday the 14th through Thursday the 16th, the swell builds back to 7 ft–8 ft, but cross-off wind at 12–25 mph keeps it bumpy. Wednesday the 15th afternoon hits 8 ft with 1105 combined energy, but still rough. Thursday afternoon the 16th sees 8 ft with 1163 energy, again, only for experts, and not clean enough.
Friday the 17th drops to 4–5 ft. Still cross-off. No standout.
Here’s the real gem: Sunday, July 19th, morning. The swell drops to just 2 ft, but the period is 16 seconds – pure groundswell from the W. And a light cross-off breeze at 6 mph makes it glassy. Combined energy is 392 – weak but perfectly formed for a longboard. For a beginner spot, that’s the best wave-to-wind combo of the whole run.
Saturday, July 18th, afternoon has a 2 ft SW groundswell at an 18-second period with 701 energy, and moderate cross-off wind. Clean, but small, and the long period can close out beach breaks. Still could be fun.
Then Friday, July 24th, afternoon is a long-range hope. A 10 ft WNW swell at 8 seconds with 1223 combined energy – strong. But it’s predicted to be too big for this break. For beginners, that’s a no-go unless you’re an expert, and the wind is light from the WNW at 6 mph.
Your best bet is Sunday morning, July 19th, for the cleanest, glassiest little waves. And keep an eye on Sunday the 12th for a decent session too.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Fri night, light winds from the NW by Sun morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Tue morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Mon morning, strong winds from the NW by Wed afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thu 16 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 667 | 669 | 649 | 329 | 226 | 352 | 476 | 395 | 477 | 466 | 386 | 444 | 374 | 274 | 518 | 464 | 434 | 920 | 1014 | 715 | 882 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:24AM1.15m | 8:45PM1.92m | 11:29AM1.25m | 9:40PM1.99m | 12:22PM1.33m | 10:35PM2.05m | 1:09PM1.40m | 11:29PM2.06m | 1:53PM1.45m | 00:23AM2.02m | 2:34PM1.49m | 1:16AM1.93m | 3:15PM1.53m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:48AM-0.02m | 2:53PM0.83m | 4:42AM-0.20m | 3:58PM0.88m | 5:35AM-0.33m | 5:00PM0.88m | 6:25AM-0.42m | 5:58PM0.85m | 7:14AM-0.45m | 6:55PM0.79m | 8:00AM-0.43m | 7:52PM0.72m | 8:44AM-0.35m | ||||||||
 | | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — |
 | 8:36 | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:34 | — | — | 8:34 | — | — | 8:32 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
Feels °C | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WNW 9 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | W 19 |
| kJ | 291 | 291 | 236 | 217 | 217 | 220 | 232 | 395 | 211 | 178 | 161 | 156 | 116 | 106 | 85 | 60 | 60 | 74 | 90 | 89 | 179 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | S 21 | — | W 18 | W 16 | SW 14 | W 18 | W 16 | W 16 | W 14 | SW 19 | W 14 | W 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 12 | W 20 | W 19 | SW 16 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 9 | — | 6 | 5 | 203 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 34 | 96 | 36 | 65 | 152 | 108 | 37 | 125 | 116 | 89 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | W 18 | W 20 | W 18 | W 15 | SW 21 | SW 21 | WSW 20 | W 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | W 13 | W 13 | W 20 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 37 | 38 | 58 | 50 | 32 | 31 | 74 | 27 | 27 | 13 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | — | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | 667 | 669 | 649 | 329 | 226 | 352 | 476 | — | 477 | 466 | 386 | 444 | 374 | 274 | 518 | 464 | 434 | 920 | 1014 | 715 | 882 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 32 | 48 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 145 | 17 | 0 | 457 | 26 | 23 | 490 | 26 | 26 | 144 | 26 | 48 | 144 | 26 | 32 | 145 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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