Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 5 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 10 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 10 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,149 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 4 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 14s period with SSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 04) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 19s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 06) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 11PM (Sat 4th Jul) | 2ft (0.6m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Fri 10th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 5AM (Fri 10th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, let's get into what this next couple of weeks is looking like for Drakes Estero. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, honestly. We’ve got some decent swell windows, but the wind is gonna be a constant dance partner. The water’s sitting at a pretty average 55°F for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.
The first real chance to get wet comes Saturday afternoon, July 4th. It’s small, just 2ft of SW groundswell, but with a very long 19-second period. That’s proper energy for such a little wave. The wind will be a light cross-off, keeping things glassy. The combined energy is moderate at 457, but it’s a promising start. This is a beginner-friendly break anyway, so that tiny, clean swell is a good entry point. Keep an eye on it.
Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th are a bit of a write-off with cross and cross-on winds messing with the shape. Tuesday morning, July 7th, sees a bump up to 4ft from the WNW with a shorter 11-second period, and clean cross-off winds. The energy jumps to strong (1022). It’s still a marginal call, but the window is there.
Then things get interesting. Friday morning, July 10th, is the standout. We’ve got a 6ft WNW swell, a clean 9-second period, and the wind is a light cross-off from the WNW. The combined energy is moderate at 740. For a spot that’s only fairly consistent, this is a solid shot at some fun, clean lines. The swell direction is straight from the optimum SW source, so it should wrap in nicely. This is the one to pencil in.
The following week, from July 11th into the 19th, is mostly a struggle. Winds get messy again, and while the swell sticks around in the 5ft to 8ft range, it’s often too lumpy or just onshore. A couple of afternoons, like Sunday the 12th and Tuesday the 14th, have clean cross-off winds, but the period drops to 7-8 seconds, making for weaker, choppier waves. The energy stays moderate to strong (500-900).
There’s a late call for Saturday afternoon, July 18th. A 3ft W swell with a long 16-second period and clean cross-off winds from the WNW. The energy is moderate at 596. It’s a small, clean window right at the end of the run. Worth checking if you’re desperate for a smooth session, but the real magic was on that Friday the 10th.
Alright, stay safe, keep your eyes on the horizon, and I’ll catch you down the beach.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 11°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Wed night, light winds from the NW by Thu night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | SW 19 | SSW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 21 | SW 20 | WNW 11 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 133 | 184 | 140 | 252 | 249 | 152 | 318 | 224 | 455 | 412 | 465 | 455 | 600 | 606 | 753 | 500 | 947 | 809 | 449 | 381 | 409 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:40PM1.41m | 3:23AM1.39m | 5:12PM1.48m | 4:21AM1.25m | 5:46PM1.55m | 5:37AM1.12m | 6:24PM1.64m | 7:15AM1.04m | 7:06PM1.73m | 8:59AM1.06m | 7:54PM1.83m | 10:24AM1.15m | 8:45PM1.92m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:00AM-0.06m | 10:27PM0.77m | 10:35AM0.05m | 11:29PM0.67m | 11:14AM0.20m | 00:36AM0.54m | 11:57AM0.37m | 1:44AM0.37m | 12:48PM0.55m | 2:48AM0.17m | 1:48PM0.71m | 3:48AM-0.02m | 2:53PM0.83m | 4:42AM-0.20m | |||||||
 | |  |  | | | | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — |
 | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
Feels °C | 12 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 12 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WNW 9 | SW 15 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | 133 | 133 | 136 | 136 | 140 | 128 | 143 | 161 | 455 | 384 | 465 | 455 | 600 | 521 | 381 | 381 | 376 | 291 | 449 | 232 | 409 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WNW 11 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SSW 19 | SW 14 | — | — | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 102 | 140 | 140 | 252 | 249 | 152 | 318 | 206 | 109 | 198 | 104 | 104 | 510 | 124 | 46 | — | — | 291 | 291 | 232 | 217 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 14 | SW 19 | WNW 13 | WNW 12 | WNW 13 | SW 13 | WNW 12 | SW 21 | SW 16 | SSW 12 | S 8 | SSW 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 21 |
| kJ | 33 | 184 | 55 | 50 | 96 | 85 | 82 | 224 | 206 | 28 | 5 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 6 | WNW 11 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | — | WNW 9 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 100 | 150 | 412 | 303 | 353 | 354 | 606 | 753 | 500 | 947 | 809 | — | 381 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 0 | 48 | 37 | 145 | 0 | 48 | 145 | 32 | 145 | 145 | 59 | 26 | 144 | 48 | 26 | 145 | 23 | 0 | 215 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)- Wind Speed (km/h)
FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Drakes Estero surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
Nearest