Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a rough start. Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are pretty much a washout – strong cross-off winds in the 18 to 25 mph range are gonna tear up what’s actually a decent-sized swell. We’re seeing 6 ft to 8 ft of short-period WNW windswell, and the energy is moderate, but the wind is just too strong to bother paddling out. Friday the 17th is a bit better with the wind easing, but the swell is still short-period and the quality is only marginal.

The first real standout comes Saturday morning, July 18th. The swell drops right off to 2 ft, but hold up – the period jumps to 16 seconds, and we’ve got a light breeze from the WNW. This is a long-period groundswell from the west, and with clean conditions, those waves will have real shape. The energy is still moderate, but for a protected spot like this, it’ll be a fun, clean session. The afternoon gets a bit lumpy with a moderate breeze, so get out early.

Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th keep the same kind of vibe: small but clean, with 3 ft to 3 ft of long-period SSW groundswell, periods between 13 and 17 seconds, and light winds. Sunday morning has a little cross-shore ripple, but the afternoon cleans up nicely. Monday morning is the pick of those two – light breeze, clean, and 3 ft of 13-second SSW swell. Very surfable.

The energy drops off mid-week. Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd are mostly poor with moderate to fresh cross-off winds and small, weak swell. Not much to get excited about.

Then we hit a fun little window from Thursday the 23rd through Sunday the 26th. Thursday the 23rd has a light breeze and 3 ft of 15-second SSW groundswell – clean and inviting. The energy is moderate. Friday the 24th gets interesting: the swell jumps to 7 ft from the NW with a 9-second period, and the energy spikes to strong. The wind is light but cross-onshore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy. This is more of a kite-surfing setup with that size and wind direction. The period is short, so it’s not gonna be pretty for paddle surfing.

The absolute standout of the entire forecast is Saturday morning, July 26th. The swell is a solid 4 ft from the SSW, period 13 seconds, and the wind is light and cross-off. The energy is strong, and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s got size, it’s clean, and the swell direction is right in the sweet spot. The water temp is about 56°F, which is normal for this time of year, so don’t forget a decent wetsuit.

After that, the last few days of July drop off. Monday the 27th through Thursday the 30th see the swell shrink back to 3 ft, with moderate to fresh cross-off winds. The period holds up (16-18 seconds), but the energy is moderate and the quality is marginal to poor. It’s a slow fade to the end.

So, for the best of the bunch: get out there Saturday morning, July 18th for that clean, long-period glassy session, and absolutely do not miss Saturday morning, July 26th – that’s your big, clean, powerful swell for the experienced crew.

Rusty.

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