Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at Drakes Estero.

Right off the bat, we’re looking at a pretty long stretch of dicey conditions. The surf is there, but the wind is a constant battle. For the first week, it’s a story of strong, gusty cross-offshore winds from the NW. While that cross-off direction can sometimes clean a wave face, the speeds are just too high – we’re talking 18 to 25 mph most days – making for a bumpy, blown-out ride. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing weird there.

Tuesday the 28th kicks it off with a clean 4ft SW swell rolling in with a long 18-second period. There’s a heap of energy behind it (1301), but that 25 mph NW wind is going to make it a battle. It’s a beginner spot, but this won’t be a beginner day.

Wednesday the 29th is a real mixed bag. The morning hangs onto a similar 4ft SW swell with 16-second period and 18 mph NW wind. Then the afternoon sees a jump to a short-period 8ft WNW windswell, and the wind kicks back up to 25 mph. That’s a lot of chunky, messy energy.

The whole first week follows this same tired script: decent swell heights, but always with that strong NW wind ruining the party. Thursday the 30th, Friday the 31st, Saturday the 1st of August – it’s all the same story. By Saturday afternoon, we’re looking at a 10ft WNW swell with 31 mph winds. At that point, this beach/river mouth setup is way beyond gnarly and honestly, it’s looking more like a spot for the kite surfers than a paddle surfer.

We finally get a break in the wind on Monday the 3rd of August. The morning is still iffy with a 6ft WNW swell and a SSE onshore breeze, but the afternoon... that’s the standout. The wind drops to a glassy 3 mph from the west, and we get a clean 5ft WNW swell. This is the best window we’ve got – small but clean waves with no wind chop.

After that little taste, things drop off fast. From Tuesday the 4th through the end of the outlook, the swell runs out of steam. We’re looking at tiny waves, below 3ft, with a mix of onshore and light cross-off winds. There’s a little blip on the 9th of August with a 5ft WNW swell, but it’s back to moderate breezes and marginal conditions.

So there it is. A solid week of wind-affected surf, one golden glassy session on the 3rd of August, and then a long, quiet stretch. If you’ve got to go, make that Monday afternoon your target.

Rusty.

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