Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break down what’s coming at Drakes Estero. This is a beach and river-mouth spot, pretty consistent, facing southwest. Water temp is about 57°, right where it should be for this time of year – nothing unusual.

First week is a real struggle. Tuesday the 7th has some small 2ft swell out of the SW with a very long 19-second period, and the combined energy is moderate at 836, but the quality is just marginal. Wind is cross-off from the northwest at 15 mph, keeping it clean, but it’s not enough to make it worth suiting up. Wednesday the 8th bumps to 3ft, still long period at 18 seconds, energy up to 1410 – still marginal with that same cross-off breeze.

From Thursday the 9th through Saturday the 11th, we get a jump to 8ft to 8ft from the NW and WNW, with periods around 8 to 9 seconds. Energy gets strong, like Thursday morning at 1752. But the period is short – under 8 seconds on some of these – so the waves will be lumpy and weak. Winds are fresh to strong, up to 25 mph, making conditions poor. Honestly, this looks better for a kite than a paddle. Scores are low, and I’m not feeling it.

Sunday the 12th through Tuesday the 15th holds around 5ft to 7ft, but with short period swell (7 to 8 seconds) and strong cross-off winds (18–28 mph). Energy drops to moderate numbers like 428 to 676. It’s just not clean. Scores are 0 or 1, and the notes say “poor” or “marginal.”

Now, there’s a real bright spot. On Saturday the 18th, morning session gets a light 6 mph west wind, cross-off, and 5ft swell from the WNW at 9 seconds. The comment says “expect very good surf conditions,” and the score backs it up. Wind is light, surface is clean, size is fun. That’s your best window. Saturday morning.

After that, Sunday the 19th afternoon brings a small 2ft SW swell with a very long 18-second period and light cross-off wind – another clean, small option. Then Monday the 20th through Wednesday the 22nd are tiny, between 2ft and 2ft, with long period but very little energy (360 to 469). Light winds, clean faces, but just not enough push for much.

So here’s the bottom line: the first week and a half is mostly messy, windy, and short-period junk. Your standout is Saturday morning the 18th, and maybe Sunday afternoon the 19th if you’re happy with small clean waves. It’s not a classic stretch, but that’s the hand we’re dealt. Stay tuned.

Rusty.

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