
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 8s period, WNW swell with 877 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 8s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 8PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Tue 28th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into what's happening at Drakes Estero.
To be honest, the first few days are a bit of a bummer. We're looking at a long stretch of marginal to poor conditions, with a lot of wind. The water temp is about average for July, nothing to write home about. The best you can hope for in the near term is some clean but ankle-to-knee-high surf.
The first real sign of life doesn't show up until Tuesday, July 28th. The morning session at Drakes Estero should see some clean 3 ft swell from the SW, with a moderate cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is moderate (1012), and it's one of the few days that gets a decent nod. It's not a standout, but it's the best of a pretty average bunch. The afternoon, however, gets messy with an 8 ft, short-period WNW swell that'll be too big and lumpy for most.
We then drift back into small, clean, but ultimately weak surf for the rest of the week and into the start of August. It's all in the 2 ft to 4 ft range, barely pushing over 3 ft, and the wind is a constant, strong cross-offshore breeze. The energy is moderate, but it's just not offering much to get excited about.
Then, out of the blue, we get a proper standout. On Sunday, August 2nd, the morning session looks like the real deal. We're looking at a 6 ft NW swell, which is a solid size, but the period is a short 8 seconds. For a spot like this, that shorter period might actually help it shape up better, but it's still a powerful wave. The wind is a gentle cross-offshore breeze, so it'll be clean. The combined energy is strong (1072), and the forecast is calling it excellent for experienced surfers. This is your window. It's a bit of a wait, but it's worth keeping an eye on. After that, things drop off again into small, marginal surf as we head into the second week.
So, to sum it up: a lot of waiting, a few small, clean windows, and one big, promising morning on August 2nd. Keep your expectations low for the rest of it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue night, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSW on Wed afternoon, fresh winds from the NW by Fri afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Sat night). Mainly strong winds. | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 11 | SSW 9 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
331 | 352 | 236 | 264 | 321 | 200 | 329 | 448 | 541 | 389 | 763 | 543 | 634 | 627 | 621 | 442 | 621 | 791 | 524 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:23AM1.06m | 7:21PM1.67m | 9:55AM1.12m | 8:09PM1.68m | 11:01AM1.21m | 8:56PM1.70m | 11:50AM1.27m | 9:43PM1.72m | 12:28PM1.31m | 10:26PM1.75m | 1:00PM1.33m | 11:07PM1.76m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:19AM0.28m | 1:23PM0.75m | 3:21AM0.19m | 2:30PM0.87m | 4:15AM0.10m | 3:34PM0.94m | 5:01AM0.03m | 4:29PM0.95m | 5:42AM-0.03m | 5:16PM0.94m | 6:19AM-0.08m | 5:57PM0.91m | |||||||
— | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | |
8:30 | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:28 | — | — | 8:27 | — | — | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 18 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 17 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 11 | SSW 9 | SSW 8 | SSW 8 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 |
331 | 352 | 212 | 117 | 321 | 200 | 246 | 195 | 198 | 176 | 763 | 543 | 634 | 627 | 621 | 442 | 621 | 791 | 524 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | S 7 | S 13 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 12 |
223 | 245 | 236 | 264 | 27 | 125 | 329 | 448 | 541 | 389 | 152 | 107 | 113 | 111 | 104 | 136 | 70 | 70 | 81 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 12 | WNW 12 | SW 18 | S 7 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | S 11 | S 11 | SW 15 | — | SW 21 | SW 13 | S 11 | SW 16 |
23 | 10 | 28 | 52 | 51 | 8 | 49 | 46 | 43 | 25 | 41 | 60 | 60 | 55 | — | 117 | 7 | 2 | 124 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 4 | — | — | — | WNW 11 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | NW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 |
8 | — | — | — | 198 | 109 | 90 | 54 | 151 | 119 | 83 | 223 | 170 | 126 | 353 | 383 | 229 | 578 | 428 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 125 | 32 | 145 | 144 | 32 | 48 | 144 | 59 | 48 | 144 | 135 | 48 | 144 | 48 | 48 | 144 | 135 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










