
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 30 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,895 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 19s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 5AM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's chew the fat on what Drakes Estero has in store for the next couple of weeks.
First up, the water temp is sitting at 57°, which is right where it should be for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.
Honestly, the first few days are a bit of a grind. From Thursday through Saturday, we've got a messy mix of NW winds and some funky swell directions. The swell energy is moderate, but the conditions are just poor. You’ll be dealing with cross-off breezes, and the wave quality is not there. It's a rough start.
Now, Sunday morning on the 2nd of August? That's when the switch flips. We’ve got a solid 10ft swell from the NW, with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is a strong 2173. That's a lot of water moving around. The wind is a moderate cross-off from the NW, keeping things clean. But here’s the thing – that’s a lot of power for a spot like this. At over 8ft, this is strictly for the experts. If you’re a beginner, you’ll want to be watching from the beach for this one.
Monday the 3rd settles down a bit with a 7ft swell from the WNW, but the wind swings around to a light cross-onshore from the WSW, which will put a bit of a ripple on the face. The energy drops to a moderate 956. It's okay, but not the standout.
The real gem in this forecast, the one I’d be circling on the calendar, is Friday the 7th of August. The afternoon session sees a nice 5ft groundswell from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, delivering a moderate energy of 697. The wind is a gentle cross-off from the W, keeping the waves clean. This is the kind of swell that's got good shape and enough punch to be fun without being a battle. It’s a proper surfable day for the average surfer.
After that, the following week looks pretty quiet. The swell drops right off, and we see a lot of onshore wind and poor conditions from the 9th through the 14th. There are a few moments in the second week with some light winds and clean conditions, like the morning of the 14th of August, but the swell is tiny, around 3ft. It’s a waiting game for the next proper pulse.
To sum it up: the first week is a wash until Sunday, but that Sunday is a big, powerful one for the pros only. The best bet for a good, clean session is the afternoon of Friday the 7th of August. After that, it’s flat and glassy, but empty.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Thu morning). Mainly strong winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
392 | 575 | 392 | 293 | 415 | 362 | 336 | 898 | 888 | 1275 | 1084 | 1255 | 848 | 648 | 683 | 424 | 292 | 169 | 143 | 188 | 145 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | glassy |
High Tide | 2:22PM1.39m | 1:03AM1.69m | 2:48PM1.44m | 1:43AM1.61m | 3:14PM1.49m | 2:27AM1.51m | 3:42PM1.55m | 3:17AM1.37m | 4:12PM1.62m | 4:19AM1.23m | 4:48PM1.68m | 5:43AM1.11m | 5:31PM1.74m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:47PM0.77m | 8:23AM-0.09m | 8:26PM0.70m | 8:52AM-0.02m | 9:09PM0.63m | 9:23AM0.09m | 9:58PM0.55m | 9:56AM0.25m | 10:54PM0.46m | 10:32AM0.43m | 11:58PM0.36m | 11:16AM0.61m | 1:10AM0.24m | ||||||||
6:11 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | |
— | 8:22 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:21 | — | — | 8:20 | — | — | 8:19 | — | — | 8:17 | — | — | 8:16 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 9 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 9 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 |
392 | 367 | 334 | 293 | 277 | 210 | 133 | 127 | 70 | 765 | 68 | 44 | 848 | 648 | 683 | 424 | 292 | 169 | 143 | 188 | 145 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 9 | SW 15 | S 14 | S 13 | — | W 21 | SW 15 | S 11 | SSW 12 | SW 14 | S 10 | SW 18 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
3 | 141 | 148 | 173 | — | 9 | 35 | 21 | 47 | 91 | 18 | 49 | 66 | 41 | 37 | 82 | 56 | 73 | 69 | 68 | 87 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | S 15 | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SSW 11 | SW 18 | S 10 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | S 9 |
— | — | 109 | — | — | 17 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 42 | 49 | 7 | 42 | 41 | 40 | 36 | 36 | 26 | 12 | 12 | 2 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
354 | 575 | 392 | 234 | 415 | 362 | 336 | 898 | 888 | 1275 | 1084 | 1255 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 26 | 144 | 26 | 26 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 145 | 26 | 48 | 195 | 5 | 48 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











