Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a quiet start. The surf is small and the conditions are marginal for the first few days, so don’t expect much to write home about until the weekend. Things start to get interesting around Thursday, 24 July, with a building swell, but the real standout window is shaping up for the weekend of 26 and 27 July, and then again early in the second week.

Our main break in the spotlight is Drakes Estero, a beach/river-mouth setup that’s exposed to the SW. The water temp is about what you’d expect for late July, nothing wild.

Let’s start with Tuesday, 22 July. The morning is a write-off with 12.4 mph cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions. The swell is only 2.3 ft from the SSW, period 16 seconds, but the energy is moderate (467). The afternoon is a little better with lighter wind, but the surf is still poor. No joy here.

Wednesday, 23 July sees a shift. We’ve got clean cross-offshore winds, but the swell is still small at 2.6 ft to 3.0 ft, with a period of 14 seconds from the SSW. The energy is moderate (440–676). It’s marginal, but it’s clean. A small-wave board is your friend.

Thursday, 24 July is more of the same – clean, but still small. Swell from the SW at 2.0 ft to 2.3 ft, but the period jumps to 24 seconds! That’s a proper long-period groundswell. The energy is ramping up (743–832, moderate). This long period will make for some lined-up waves, but at a beach break, it might be a bit straight and hard to find a good peak. Still, it’s a promising sign.

Friday, 25 July – the swell holds at 2.6 ft to 3.0 ft, still SW, with a long period of 21 seconds. Morning winds are a solid 15.5 mph cross-off, and the energy is strong (1005). The afternoon picks up a bit of a breeze, but it’s still clean. One of the better small-wave days.

Now, Saturday, 26 July is where we start to get serious. The swell is 3.0 ft from the SW, period 19 seconds, and the morning energy is a strong 1012. Winds are 18.6 mph cross-off – clean and groomed. The afternoon, however, gets a bit wild with 28 mph winds. Still clean, but that’s a strong breeze. The morning is the pick.

Sunday, 27 July – the morning holds at 3.0 ft, SW, 18 seconds, with 21.7 mph cross-off winds. Energy is strong (1007). But the afternoon? That’s when things get big. The swell jumps to 9.8 ft from the WNW, with a short period of 8 seconds. The energy is very strong (1862). This is a monster close-out for a beach break. The wind is a near gale at 31 mph. This is not paddle-surfing territory. This is kite-surfing weather. The setup looks far more interesting for the kite crew than us paddlers.

Monday, 28 July – the morning drops back to 3.3 ft from the SW, 18 seconds, with 15.5 mph cross-off winds. Energy is strong (1170). The afternoon, however, is another big one: 9.8 ft from the WNW, 8 seconds, and 21.7 mph winds. The forecast says it’s too big for this break. Unless you’re an expert, sit this one out.

Tuesday, 29 July – the morning is back to 3.0 ft from the SSW, 17 seconds, with 15.5 mph cross-off. Energy is moderate (930). The afternoon sees 5.9 ft from the WNW, 9 seconds. Bigger, but messy.

Wednesday, 30 July – morning has 4.9 ft from the WNW, 9 seconds, with 12.4 mph cross-off. Moderate energy (675). The afternoon drops to 2.6 ft from the SSW, 15 seconds. A bit of a mixed

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