
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 17 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period, W swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 21 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 11s period, S swell with 1,768 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period with W swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 1.2m and 7s. Another secondary swell of 1.6m and 7s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 11PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 5PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 11PM (Tue 21st Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Drakes Estero.
To be honest, the next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, inconsistent waves with a lot of wind on them. The first proper surfable window doesn't really show up until the morning of Friday the 18th of July, and even then it’s not a standout. There’s a big gap of nothing recommended before that. The real highlight, the one that’s got my attention, is the morning of Wednesday the 29th of July. That’s the one to circle on the calendar.
Water temp at Drakes Estero is sitting at 57°, which is bang on normal for this time of year, so don’t expect any surprises when you jump in.
Let’s break it down. The first morning with anything on offer is Friday the 18th of July. A clean, cross-off breeze from the WNW is blowing at 6 mph, with a 2ft swell from the W, but the period is a juicy 16 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, which means better shaped waves and more energy – the combined energy sitting at 575 (moderate). The afternoon picks up a little with a 2ft swell from the SW, even longer period at 18 seconds, and energy jumps to 707 (moderate). The wind stays cross-off, so it’s clean. It’s small, but it’s quality.
Sunday the 19th of July is a write-off. Light cross-shore winds and a tiny 2ft to 3ft swell with no real push. The energy is still moderate, but the wind is a light cross-shore, so it’s just messy. Not worth paddling out.
Monday the 20th of July has a moment early. The morning is glassy – a 3 mph wind from the SSW, flat calm, with a 2ft, 16-second swell from the SW. Energy at 491 (moderate). That’s a small but clean session if you’re desperate for a splash. The afternoon turns cross-shore on you.
From Tuesday the 21st of July through to Friday the 1st of August, the story is the same: small surf, 2ft to 5ft, mostly from the SW, with periods that are all over the shop. The wind is a constant problem. It’s either cross-on, onshore, or a fresh cross-off breeze that’s too strong for the small waves. The combined energy does get into the 900s and even 1000s (strong) on the 26th, 27th, and 28th of July, but the wind is a fresh breeze, spoiling it. The Thursday the 30th of July morning has a 6ft, 9-second swell from the WNW with a gentle cross-off, energy at 866 (moderate), and it’s described as “very good” – that’s worth a mention for a quick look.
But the standout? The morning of Wednesday the 29th of July. The waves are going to push up to 7ft from the NW, with a short period of 8 seconds. The wind is a gentle cross-off from the WNW at 9 mph, keeping it clean. The combined energy is strong at 1642. This is a proper swell for experienced surfers only – that 7ft with a short period is going to be punchy and powerful at a beach/river mouth setup. It’s the only day in the whole forecast that’s flagged as “excellent” for the crew that can handle it. Beginners should sit this one out.
If you’re looking for a fun, clean wave in the second week, the morning of the 30th of July is your backup. 6ft from the WNW, 9-second period, gentle cross-off breeze, and energy at 866 (moderate). It’s a solid option for a less heavy session.
Overall, it’s a lean run. The consistent offshore winds we want just aren’t lining up with the swell. The 29th of July morning is the only real standout. The rest is small, wind-affected, or just not worth the hassle. That’s the way it goes sometimes. Forecasts can change, but for now, that’s the call.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Fri afternoon, calm by Sun night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 23°C on Tue morning, min 12°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | W 17 | W 16 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | SW 16 | S 12 | SW 16 | S 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 10 | SSW 9 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 26 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
284 | 310 | 254 | 251 | 314 | 239 | 170 | 362 | 306 | 203 | 302 | 314 | 691 | 841 | 1323 | 349 | 236 | 257 | 264 | 257 | 329 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:55PM1.58m | 3:04AM1.60m | 4:34PM1.61m | 4:03AM1.40m | 5:14PM1.64m | 5:13AM1.21m | 5:54PM1.65m | 6:40AM1.08m | 6:36PM1.66m | 8:23AM1.06m | 7:21PM1.67m | 9:55AM1.12m | 8:09PM1.68m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:27AM-0.22m | 9:51PM0.59m | 10:08AM-0.05m | 10:54PM0.53m | 10:50AM0.15m | 00:01AM0.46m | 11:34AM0.37m | 1:11AM0.38m | 12:24PM0.58m | 2:19AM0.28m | 1:23PM0.75m | 3:21AM0.19m | 2:30PM0.87m | 4:15AM0.10m | |||||||
6:01 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | |
— | 8:32 | — | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:29 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 23 | 23 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 22 | 21 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 17 | W 17 | W 16 | WNW 7 | W 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 9 | S 12 | S 13 | S 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 10 | SSW 9 | SSW 8 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 |
217 | 290 | 254 | 134 | 248 | 107 | 130 | 126 | 107 | 196 | 276 | 314 | 691 | 841 | 1323 | 349 | 201 | 257 | 264 | 257 | 257 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 14 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | W 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | SW 16 | SW 16 | NW 8 | NW 9 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SSW 14 | S 8 | NW 11 | S 7 | SW 26 |
130 | 74 | 72 | 251 | 314 | 239 | 170 | 362 | 306 | 92 | 302 | 299 | 34 | 37 | 178 | 245 | 236 | 40 | 29 | 9 | 329 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 13 | WNW 10 | SW 16 | W 15 | W 14 | SW 16 | NW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 13 | WNW 13 | NW 8 | WNW 12 | NW 12 | SW 19 | S 7 | SW 26 | SW 18 |
74 | 122 | 49 | 190 | 44 | 36 | 165 | 159 | 106 | 203 | 72 | 55 | 57 | 57 | 10 | 29 | 36 | 59 | 17 | 106 | 49 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | — | WNW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 4 | — | — | — | W 6 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 |
284 | 310 | 168 | — | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | — | — | — | 69 | 43 | 145 | 154 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 48 | 145 | 23 | 0 | 145 | 26 | 48 | 240 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 104 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 32 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










