
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 1,005 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 16s. Another secondary swell of 0.2m and 12s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 8PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.
Right off the bat, we’ve got a rough start. Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are pretty much a washout – strong cross-off winds in the 18 to 25 mph range are gonna tear up what’s actually a decent-sized swell. We’re seeing 6 ft to 8 ft of short-period WNW windswell, and the energy is moderate, but the wind is just too strong to bother paddling out. Friday the 17th is a bit better with the wind easing, but the swell is still short-period and the quality is only marginal.
The first real standout comes Saturday morning, July 18th. The swell drops right off to 2 ft, but hold up – the period jumps to 16 seconds, and we’ve got a light breeze from the WNW. This is a long-period groundswell from the west, and with clean conditions, those waves will have real shape. The energy is still moderate, but for a protected spot like this, it’ll be a fun, clean session. The afternoon gets a bit lumpy with a moderate breeze, so get out early.
Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th keep the same kind of vibe: small but clean, with 3 ft to 3 ft of long-period SSW groundswell, periods between 13 and 17 seconds, and light winds. Sunday morning has a little cross-shore ripple, but the afternoon cleans up nicely. Monday morning is the pick of those two – light breeze, clean, and 3 ft of 13-second SSW swell. Very surfable.
The energy drops off mid-week. Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd are mostly poor with moderate to fresh cross-off winds and small, weak swell. Not much to get excited about.
Then we hit a fun little window from Thursday the 23rd through Sunday the 26th. Thursday the 23rd has a light breeze and 3 ft of 15-second SSW groundswell – clean and inviting. The energy is moderate. Friday the 24th gets interesting: the swell jumps to 7 ft from the NW with a 9-second period, and the energy spikes to strong. The wind is light but cross-onshore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy. This is more of a kite-surfing setup with that size and wind direction. The period is short, so it’s not gonna be pretty for paddle surfing.
The absolute standout of the entire forecast is Saturday morning, July 26th. The swell is a solid 4 ft from the SSW, period 13 seconds, and the wind is light and cross-off. The energy is strong, and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s got size, it’s clean, and the swell direction is right in the sweet spot. The water temp is about 56°F, which is normal for this time of year, so don’t forget a decent wetsuit.
After that, the last few days of July drop off. Monday the 27th through Thursday the 30th see the swell shrink back to 3 ft, with moderate to fresh cross-off winds. The period holds up (16-18 seconds), but the energy is moderate and the quality is marginal to poor. It’s a slow fade to the end.
So, for the best of the bunch: get out there Saturday morning, July 18th for that clean, long-period glassy session, and absolutely do not miss Saturday morning, July 26th – that’s your big, clean, powerful swell for the experienced crew.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed morning, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Thu night, light winds from the NW by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 7 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | SSW 16 | SW 17 | SW 17 | SSW 13 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
327 | 620 | 560 | 455 | 866 | 545 | 352 | 285 | 301 | 251 | 314 | 239 | 330 | 362 | 270 | 299 | 299 | 353 | 228 | 214 | 220 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:34PM1.49m | 1:16AM1.93m | 3:15PM1.53m | 2:09AM1.79m | 3:55PM1.58m | 3:04AM1.60m | 4:34PM1.61m | 4:03AM1.40m | 5:14PM1.64m | 5:13AM1.21m | 5:54PM1.65m | 6:40AM1.08m | 6:36PM1.66m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:52PM0.72m | 8:44AM-0.35m | 8:50PM0.65m | 9:27AM-0.22m | 9:51PM0.59m | 10:08AM-0.05m | 10:54PM0.53m | 10:50AM0.15m | 00:01AM0.46m | 11:34AM0.37m | 1:11AM0.38m | 12:24PM0.58m | 2:19AM0.28m | ||||||||
6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | |
— | 8:34 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 10 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | W 18 | W 17 | W 17 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | W 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | S 14 | SSW 13 | S 13 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 |
60 | 56 | 90 | 124 | 89 | 159 | 217 | 215 | 183 | 134 | 248 | 107 | 133 | 116 | 253 | 299 | 209 | 353 | 228 | 214 | 220 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 17 | W 20 | W 19 | SSW 12 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 14 | W 16 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | SSW 16 | SW 17 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | SW 16 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 |
108 | 74 | 127 | 116 | 26 | 77 | 130 | 74 | 254 | 251 | 314 | 239 | 330 | 362 | 92 | 101 | 299 | 127 | 184 | 101 | 58 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 13 | W 20 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 13 | WNW 10 | W 15 | W 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | NW 9 | WNW 13 | NW 8 | S 10 | S 9 |
31 | 74 | 27 | 27 | 16 | 54 | 74 | 122 | 72 | 243 | 44 | 38 | 170 | 159 | 270 | 165 | 77 | 58 | 25 | 30 | 14 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 7 | — | WNW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 |
327 | 620 | 560 | 455 | 866 | 545 | 352 | 285 | 301 | — | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 58 | 22 | 64 | 181 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 48 | 144 | 48 | 145 | 144 | 32 | 145 | 145 | 23 | 0 | 145 | 26 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 32 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










