Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 993 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 3 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 03) at 5PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5PM (Fri 3rd Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, Rusty here, breaking down what’s cookin’ at Drakes Estero.
The next few days are gonna be a bit of a slow burn. Small surf, funky winds – you know the drill. The water is 56°F, right about average for this time of year.
Friday morning is a no-go: 2ft of SW swell with a cross-onshore breeze that’ll make it choppy. The afternoon cleans up, with 2ft of SW groundswell and clean conditions. The combined energy is 415 (moderate). It’s tiny, but it’s the best on the first day.
Saturday and Sunday are poor. Onshore winds, short-period slop – just stay home.
From Monday the 6th through Wednesday the 9th, the swell energy builds – we see numbers like 553, 696, and 954 (moderate to strong) – but the wave heights stay between 2ft and 3ft, and the wind is mostly cross-off. It’ll look clean, but there’s not much push.
Now for the good stuff. Friday the 10th morning is your standout. You’ve got 6ft of WNW swell with a cross-off breeze and clean conditions. It’s short-period (8 sec), so not the best shape, but the size is there. Combined energy is 1087 (strong). This one’s for the experienced crew – mark it.
Saturday the 11th afternoon keeps the size: 8ft of WNW, clean cross-off. Short period again. Energy 1005 (strong). Fun for the big-wave hunters.
Sunday the 12th afternoon is a gem: 8ft of WNW with glassy conditions and light air. The waves will be smooth and lined up. Combined energy 866 (strong). That’s another top pick for the pros.
After that, things mix up. Tuesday the 14th afternoon is nice: 5ft of WNW with an 11-second period and light cross-off wind, clean. A longer-period groundswell that’ll wrap in better. Energy 689 (moderate).
The rest of the second week fades back to 2ft to 2ft, with clean but small conditions. Combined energies from 406 to 622 (moderate). Not a total loss, but nothing to rush for.
Bottom line: the first few days are quiet. The real window is Friday the 10th through Sunday the 12th. After that, it’s small and clean but not exciting. Stay locked on that Friday morning.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri morning, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Mon morning, strong winds from the NW by Wed night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 3 | Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 19 | SSW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 9 | SW 16 | SW 21 | WNW 11 | WNW 11 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 171 | 255 | 202 | 157 | 184 | 140 | 252 | 249 | 154 | 318 | 224 | 517 | 384 | 465 | 455 | 600 | 521 | 382 | 515 | 779 | 593 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | on | cross | cross-on | on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:10PM1.36m | 2:36AM1.51m | 4:40PM1.41m | 3:23AM1.39m | 5:12PM1.48m | 4:21AM1.25m | 5:46PM1.55m | 5:37AM1.12m | 6:24PM1.64m | 7:15AM1.04m | 7:06PM1.73m | 8:59AM1.06m | 7:54PM1.83m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:27AM-0.14m | 9:34PM0.83m | 10:00AM-0.06m | 10:27PM0.77m | 10:35AM0.05m | 11:29PM0.67m | 11:14AM0.20m | 00:36AM0.54m | 11:57AM0.37m | 1:44AM0.37m | 12:48PM0.55m | 2:48AM0.17m | 1:48PM0.71m | 3:48AM-0.02m | |||||||
 | |  |  | | | |  | | | |  | | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 5:52 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — |
 | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:36 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 13 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 12 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 157 | 143 | 202 | 157 | 136 | 140 | 169 | 143 | 154 | 154 | 158 | 455 | 384 | 465 | 455 | 600 | 521 | 381 | 515 | 376 | 291 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | SSW 19 | SW 13 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 171 | 255 | 201 | 102 | 140 | 140 | 252 | 249 | 152 | 318 | 206 | 206 | 198 | 104 | 104 | — | 124 | 46 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | W 15 | W 14 | W 14 | SW 19 | WNW 13 | WNW 12 | W 13 | SW 13 | WNW 12 | SW 21 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | S 8 | SSW 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 9 | 17 | 16 | 33 | 184 | 55 | 50 | 86 | 85 | 81 | 224 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 11 | WNW 11 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 108 | 517 | 359 | 254 | 332 | 222 | 374 | 382 | 430 | 779 | 593 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 48 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 145 | 37 | 5 | 430 | 48 | 490 | 145 | 32 | 48 | 145 | 59 | 48 | 144 | 48 | 48 | 144 | 32 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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