Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Issued: 10 am 05 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
12.9° C

Normal for this time of year

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 6 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 11 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 8s period, NW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, WNW swell with 1,084 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 5 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 18s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 11PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 2PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Sun 5th Jul)2ft (0.6m) 18s
Best Surf 8AM (Sat 11th Jul)6ft (1.9m) 8s
Most Powerful11PM (Thu 9th Jul)8ft (2.5m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, I'm Rusty, and I've been staring at these numbers for Drakes Estero. It's a beach and river-mouth setup that's exposed to the SW, so it takes that swell direction best.

Right out of the gate, this is a slow burner. We've got a bit of a wait on our hands. The first few days are just weak and messy. Sunday the 5th is a write-off – tiny 2ft SW swell with a cross-onshore breeze that's gonna chop it up. Monday and Tuesday the 6th and 7th aren't much better, though the wind does swing to a clean cross-offshore from the WNW. The problem is the swell is still small and weak. We're looking at combined energy values in the 400-800 range, which is just weak to moderate energy, and the surf is marginal at best. The water temp is sitting at 55°, average for this time of year.

Now, come Wednesday the 8th, things start to rumble. We see the swell jump to 3ft and the energy crank up to 1462 (moderate-strong), but it's still a touch on the small side. The real tell is Wednesday afternoon: a 7ft swell from the WNW, but with a short period of just 8 seconds and a fresh breeze at 22 mph. That's a lot of wind on a beach break. It's clean, but that short period means it's going to be a bit of a mess. Not exactly a standout.

Thursday the 9th keeps pushing nearly 8ft WNW swell, but the wind is howling at 25 mph. That's a strong breeze, and while it's clean, it's going to be howling. Anything over 8ft is expert territory, and we're flirting with that. Honestly, with that much wind and a beach setup, a kite surfer might be having more fun than us paddle guys.

There is one window that looks promising for a solid, if not perfect, session. Friday the 10th morning. The swell is around 7ft from the NW, period is 9 seconds, and the wind has dropped to a moderate 12 mph cross-offshore. The combined energy is high at 1462. That's a decent size with cleaner conditions, but still short-period. It's going to be a bit lumpy but there will be some waves to push into. Not the best, but the best of the first week.

We then hit a lull through the weekend of the 11th and 12th, which are almost flat and blown out.

Looking into the second week, things get more interesting but also more uncertain. Monday the 13th brings back building swell, but it's short period and windy. The real blip on the radar is Friday the 17th. The morning session shows a solid 8ft NW swell, with a period of 9 seconds and the wind easing back to a gentle 9 mph cross-off. The energy hits 2196, which is very strong. That's a big, powerful groundswell, but with that short period it's going to break fast and fat. It'll be a handful, but for experts, that could be the best day of the two weeks. The crowd levels are listed as "sometimes" here, so it might not be a zoo.

Honestly, the whole window has issues: either the wind is too strong, the swell is too short-period for the size, or it's just weak. There's no perfect day. If you're a patient surfer, the 17th is your best bet, but it's a gamble this far out. For the rest of it, you're chasing marginal conditions in a fairly consistent area, so it won't stay poor forever, but this stretch is a bit of a grind.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon morning, strong winds from the NW by Tue night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Wed morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Thu night, light winds from the NW by Fri night).

Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
3
2
1
2
1
1
3
1
2
1
2
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.5
SW
18
0.8
SW
16
0.5
SW
21
1.5
WNW
11
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
1
SW
16
2.4
WNW
9
2.1
WNW
9
2.4
WNW
8
2.4
WNW
9
2.2
NW
9
2.1
WNW
8
1.9
WNW
8
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
1.4
WNW
7
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
252
249
152
318
224
527
384
465
455
600
525
825
629
809
929
732
616
488
220
220
186
Wind (km/h)
10
SW
15
W
10
W
10
W
20
WNW
25
NW
20
WNW
35
WNW
30
NW
25
NW
35
NW
35
NW
35
NW
40
NW
35
NW
20
NW
30
NW
20
NW
5
SSW
10
WNW
10
SSW
Wind State
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
cross-off
on
High Tide
5:12PM1.48m
4:21AM1.25m
5:46PM1.55m
5:37AM1.12m
6:24PM1.64m
7:15AM1.04m
7:06PM1.73m
8:59AM1.06m
7:54PM1.83m
10:24AM1.15m
8:45PM1.92m
11:29AM1.25m
9:40PM1.99m
Low Tide
10:35AM0.05m
11:29PM0.67m
11:14AM0.20m
00:36AM0.54m
11:57AM0.37m
1:44AM0.37m
12:48PM0.55m
2:48AM0.17m
1:48PM0.71m
3:48AM-0.02m
2:53PM0.83m
4:42AM-0.20m
3:58PM0.88m
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:54
5:54
5:54
5:56
5:56
5:56
5:58
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:36
8:36
8:36
 mm
Temp °C
13
14
13
13
13
12
13
12
12
13
13
13
14
13
12
14
14
14
16
16
13
Feels °C
11
12
11
12
11
8
10
7
5
9
8
5
8
7
3
10
9
9
15
16
11
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
WNW
8
0.9
WNW
8
0.8
WNW
8
0.8
WNW
8
0.7
WNW
12
0.8
SW
20
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
1
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
1.7
WNW
9
0.8
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.6
SW
15
Energy kJ
112
103
84
82
125
455
384
465
455
600
521
381
381
376
291
439
273
217
217
220
186
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.5
SW
18
0.8
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.5
SW
14
0.5
SW
15
0.9
SW
18
0.4
SSW
19
0.4
SW
14
0.8
SW
16
0.1
S
21
0.1
W
18
0.4
WNW
10
Energy kJ
252
249
152
318
206
206
198
103
104
510
124
64
291
9
6
38
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
WNW
12
0.5
W
13
0.5
SW
13
0.6
WNW
12
0.5
SW
21
0.3
SSW
12
0.7
WNW
11
0.2
S
8
0.2
SSW
11
0.1
S
10
0.1
S
10
Energy kJ
50
86
85
113
224
28
101
5
12
2
2
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
11
1.2
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
7
1.8
WNW
7
1.7
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
2.4
WNW
9
2.1
WNW
9
2.4
WNW
8
2.4
WNW
9
2.2
NW
9
2.1
WNW
8
1.9
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.4
WNW
7
Energy kJ
100
527
165
288
333
352
525
825
629
809
929
732
616
488
220
173
170
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
2
3
2
2
1
4
2
2
3
3
2
3
3
2
3
3
2
3
1
2
2
Distance (km)
75
75
23
48
145
32
145
145
32
26
145
48
48
144
48
26
145
23
48
0
5
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
2
2
Best forecast wave conditions in United States
Rating
(10 max)
2
3
3
2
2
4
2
2
4
4
2
4
3
2
4
4
4
3
2
2
3
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
6
4
8
7
5
5
9
8
9
9
5
5
6
5
8
5
5
8
6
5
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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