Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Drakes Estero. We’ve got a long 16-day window ahead, but honestly, it’s a bit of a slow burn. The first week and a half is pretty lackluster, with a real mix of mid-period swell and strong winds messing things up. The real standout is buried deep in the second week, so you’ll need some patience.

Right now, the water is sitting at 55°, which is about average for the time of year – nothing unusual there.

The first decent shot comes on Tuesday afternoon, July 14th. We’re looking at a 5ft swell from the WNW, with a short period of 7 seconds. The wind is a cross-off from the NW at 19 mph, which will keep the surface clean, but the wave energy is weak (427). It’s just not enough to get excited about.

The next few days are a write-off. Wednesday the 15th through the weekend see the swell jump up to 8ft, but the wind is howling at 28 mph. That’s fresh to strong breeze territory, making it all messy and blown out. For a beach/river setup, that’s tough. By Thursday morning, July 16th, the swell drops to 6ft with an 8-second period, but with a 22 mph cross-off, it’s still marginal. Even Friday morning, July 17th, with 5ft and 16 mph, it’s a struggle.

We get a bit of a lull from Saturday, July 18th, through to Thursday, July 24th. The swell drops right down to 2ft to 3ft. The period gets long, hitting 15 to 18 seconds, which is classic groundswell. The wind is light, sometimes cross-off, which is a plus. But the combined energy is weak (between 236 and 713). The waves are small and inconsistent. The long period means the sets will be far apart, and at a beach setup, it might break a bit too straight. It’s not really surfable, more like a glassy lake.

Now, here’s the one I’m holding out for. Saturday morning, July 25th. That’s the standout. The swell jumps to 5ft from the S, with a 16-second period. The combined energy is strong (2010). The wind is a light cross-off from the WNW at 6 mph. This is the real deal. Excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The direction is good, the period is long, and the wind is clean. This is your best bet.

After that, Sunday morning, July 26th, has a similar 5ft swell from the SSW, but the wind is onshore, so it’s not as clean. The following days taper off back to small, long-period leftovers.

So, to sum it up: there’s a big gap of poor to marginal surf from the 14th to the 24th. The only true standout is Saturday morning, July 25th. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. The rest is just waiting.

Rusty.

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