Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up for Drakes Estero. The next few days are looking pretty average, but there’s a glimmer of good stuff if you’re patient. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 60°.

Things kick off this Sunday the 26th of July, and honestly, it’s not much to write home about. We’ve got a 3ft swell rolling in from the southwest, with a long 19-second period. That’s proper groundswell, but with a 19 mph cross-offshore wind from the northwest, the wave energy is moderate (695). It’s clean, but the overall vibe is just marginal. The wind picks up in the afternoon, making it a tough call.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th are more of the same. The swell picks up a touch to 4ft, still out of the southwest, with a solid 18-second period. The wind stays cross-offshore from the northwest, but it’s a fresh to strong breeze, so the surface is clean but bumpy. The wave energy on Monday afternoon jumps to strong (1294), and Tuesday afternoon hits very strong (1280), but the conditions just aren’t coming together for a standout session.

Wednesday the 29th is a bit of a turning point. The morning still has that 4ft southwest swell, but the wind drops to a moderate breeze. The energy is strong (1006). Then the afternoon shifts – the swell size jumps to 8ft, coming from the west-northwest, but the period drops right off to a short 8 seconds. That’s bumpy, wind-affected stuff, and the wave energy is very strong (1650). The wind is a bit stronger too, so it’s messy.

Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st keep the pattern going. Morning sessions offer a 3ft to 7ft mix of swells and moderate breezes, but the afternoon sees a return of that 8ft short-period, bumpy energy. On Friday afternoon, the swell drops back to 3ft from the south-southwest with a 14-second period, which is nicer, but the wind is still fresh.

Now, here’s the one that’s got my attention. Saturday the 1st of August. The morning is the standout. The wind goes light and glassy, a 6 mph breeze from the west-northwest, which is cross-offshore. The swell is a solid 7ft from the northwest, with an 8-second period. That’s a bit short and a bit big – over 8ft would be expert-only, but this is still in the “experienced surfer” zone. The wave energy is very strong (1339). For a beach/river setup, that short period will keep things punchy. This is where you want to be.

Sunday the 2nd of August morning has a similar 8ft swell from the northwest, energy is very strong (1743), but the wind is a moderate breeze, so it’s not as clean as Saturday.

After that, it fades. From the 3rd of August through the 10th, we see smaller swells, mostly 1ft to 6ft, with poor onshore or cross-onshore winds kicking in. The wave energy drops significantly, and the conditions turn marginal or poor. There’s a little flicker on the 8th of August with a 2ft south-southwest swell and a clean cross-offshore breeze, but it’s tiny.

Overall, the best bet in this 16-day window is the morning of Saturday the 1st of August at Drakes Estero. The lighter winds and that 7ft northwest swell should offer some fun, punchy waves. It’s a bit short-period, so it’ll be a bit lumpy, but for the beach break, that can work. Crowds are possible at this spot, so get in early.

Rusty.

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