Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 2 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 6 Jul, 11AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 8 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 7s period, WNW swell with 730 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 2 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 18s period with SSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 02) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 7s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 08) at 5PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 11PM (Thu 2nd Jul) | 2ft (0.6m) 18s |
| Best Surf | 11AM (Mon 6th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 5PM (Wed 8th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 7s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's crack open this 16-day look at Drakes Estero. It's a beach/river mouth setup, pretty exposed, and the charts are telling a story of patience, with a few real gems hidden in the mix.
Right off the bat, don't bother paddling out these first few days. We’re looking at Thursday (July 2nd) through Saturday (July 4th) with pretty weak surf—around 4ft down to 2ft—and onshore or cross winds making it a bit of a messy affair. The water’s sitting at 56°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.
Now, Sunday (July 5th) is a total write-off. Just poor conditions all day. But then Monday (July 6th)… that’s where it gets interesting. We've got a clean 2ft swell rolling in from the SW with a very long 16-second period. That's proper groundswell energy (526 combined energy), and with a light cross-offshore breeze, Drakes Estero should be shaping up some clean, lined-up waves. The long period will make the paddling easy between sets, too. For a beginner-friendly spot, this is your window. Monday morning is the standout of the first week.
Tuesday (July 7th) sees a jump in size, with a NW swell pushing 6ft on the morning, but that’s packing a short 8-second period. The combined energy is way up (1216), so there's plenty of push, but it won't be as well-shaped. The wind stays clean cross-off, but that bigger, shorter swell might be a bit too much for learners.
We then go through a bit of a lull in quality again. Wednesday (July 8th) afternoon gets blown out by 45 km/h winds and a messy 8ft swell. Not your day. The best of the second week looks like it’s shaping up for Wednesday (July 15th) morning. We’ve got a clean 6ft from the WNW with 8-second period, and a gentle cross-off breeze. The forecast points to very good conditions, so while it's further out and a little less certain, mark it in the calendar. Just keep in mind that 6ft is getting into the territory where it might be a handful for absolute beginners.
The only other real bright spot is Friday (July 17th) afternoon, with a 7ft WNW swell and clean cross-off wind. That’s a lot of water moving, so only for those with some experience.
Keep an eye on that long-range stuff, but for now, Monday morning is your best bet for clean, friendly waves.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun morning, min 10°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon morning, strong winds from the NW by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 2 | Friday 3 | Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | SSW 18 | WNW 8 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 19 | WNW 8 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 21 | SW 20 | NW 8 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 292 | 222 | 249 | 192 | 201 | 232 | 161 | 184 | 169 | 252 | 249 | 152 | 271 | 224 | 388 | 418 | 383 | 455 | 600 | 730 | 455 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross | on | cross | cross-on | on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:40PM1.33m | 1:54AM1.61m | 4:10PM1.36m | 2:36AM1.51m | 4:40PM1.41m | 3:23AM1.39m | 5:12PM1.48m | 4:21AM1.25m | 5:46PM1.55m | 5:37AM1.12m | 6:24PM1.64m | 7:15AM1.04m | 7:06PM1.73m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:54AM-0.17m | 8:48PM0.87m | 9:27AM-0.14m | 9:34PM0.83m | 10:00AM-0.06m | 10:27PM0.77m | 10:35AM0.05m | 11:29PM0.67m | 11:14AM0.20m | 00:36AM0.54m | 11:57AM0.37m | 1:44AM0.37m | 12:48PM0.55m | 2:48AM0.17m | |||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | |  | | | | |
 | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — |
 | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 11 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 12 | SW 20 | WNW 9 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 292 | 222 | 249 | 192 | 173 | 232 | 161 | 169 | 169 | 188 | 147 | 147 | 173 | 158 | 388 | 297 | 383 | 455 | 600 | 521 | 381 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | WNW 10 | SW 15 | — | SSW 19 | SW 14 |
| kJ | 201 | 181 | 207 | 171 | 201 | 201 | 102 | 140 | 140 | 252 | 249 | 152 | 271 | 206 | 206 | 303 | 63 | 104 | — | 124 | 46 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 19 | S 11 | SW 15 | S 11 | W 15 | W 14 | W 14 | SW 19 | SW 19 | WNW 12 | WNW 13 | SW 13 | WNW 12 | SW 21 | WNW 11 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SSW 11 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 37 | 10 | 75 | 9 | 17 | 16 | 33 | 184 | 96 | 50 | 58 | 85 | 82 | 224 | 71 | 198 | 104 | 12 | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 140 | 294 | 418 | 220 | 319 | 277 | 730 | 455 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 215 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 145 | 23 | 37 | 145 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 32 | 32 | 145 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 48 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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