Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 pm 10 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
14.8° C
0.5° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 11 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 12 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 9s period, WNW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 16 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 502 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 11 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 9s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 11) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Aug 15) at 11PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Tue 11th Aug)3.5ft (1.1m) 9s
Best Surf 5AM (Wed 12th Aug)5ft (1.5m) 9s
Most Powerful 2AM (Sun 16th Aug)3.5ft (1.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Drakes Estero has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.

Right now, the pattern isn't offering much to get excited about. We kick off with some small, wobbly surf from the WNW through Tuesday and Wednesday. It's small, poor quality, and the wind is either on it or cross, just messing things up. Not worth paddling out for.

Things start to turn around on Thursday afternoon. That's when we see the wind shift to a clean, cross-off breeze from the WNW. The swell is still a modest 4ft from the WNW with a 9-second period, but the clean conditions make it the first real look of the week. The combined wave energy sits at 435 (moderate), so there is some push behind it.

Now, the standout window looks to be Saturday the 15th morning through Monday the 17th morning. Saturday morning brings a clean 3ft SW groundswell with a nice 17-second period. Combined energy is 473 (moderate). That's some proper, long-period groundswell. The wind is a light cross-off, so the wave faces should be clean. Because it's such a long period swell, it might be a little tricky at a beach setup like Drakes Estero – it could break a bit straight, but with the clean conditions, it's worth a look.

But the real highlight is Sunday the 16th morning. The swell jumps to 3ft from the SW, still with a long 16-second period, and the wind is light and cross-off. The combined energy hits 553 (moderate-strong). Conditions are clean, and the energy is there. This is the pick of the forecast. It's a longer swell, so it'll have good shape and power, and the lighter wind will make paddling out a lot easier than the afternoons, which get blown out by a NW breeze on Sunday.

After Monday morning, the quality dips a bit, with smaller swells and messy afternoons. There are a few more windows with clean cross-off winds, like Thursday the 20th morning and Friday the 21st morning, with 3ft WNW swell, but the energy is lower. The final week looks very inconsistent and mostly blown out by fresh NW winds, with only tiny bits of swell. The 22nd afternoon through the 25th sees a big drop-off, with very weak energy (171 - 163) and poor or ordinary conditions. The pattern just fades out.

There will be gaps of a few days where there's nothing worth mentioning, especially from the 22nd afternoon onwards.

Water temperature is typical for this time of year, nothing unusual to report.

So, for the keen, aim for Sunday morning the 16th of August at Drakes Estero. If you miss that, Saturday morning the 15th or Monday morning the 17th are your next best bets.

Rusty, signing off.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 11°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri morning, min 12°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light.

Tuesday
11
Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
Friday
14
Saturday
15
Sunday
16
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
0
1
2
1
1
0
0
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
3
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
WNW
9
1.2
WNW
9
1.1
WNW
9
1.5
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
9
1.2
WNW
8
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.9
SW
17
0.8
SW
16
1
SW
16
1
SW
16
0.9
SW
15
0.9
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
244
212
194
378
273
222
237
249
261
191
174
223
255
414
314
502
489
344
305
Wind (km/h)
10
SSW
10
S
10
W
5
S
10
SSE
10
W
10
SW
15
SSW
15
WNW
15
WSW
5
WSW
20
WNW
25
NW
15
WNW
25
WNW
25
NW
10
WNW
25
NW
25
NW
Wind State
on
on
cross
on
on
cross
cross-on
on
cross-off
cross
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
10:30PM1.99m
12:41PM1.46m
11:25PM1.98m
1:19PM1.52m
00:18AM1.93m
1:54PM1.57m
1:09AM1.82m
2:29PM1.62m
2:01AM1.68m
3:03PM1.65m
2:54AM1.51m
3:36PM1.67m
3:52AM1.34m
Low Tide
6:10AM-0.30m
5:56PM0.73m
6:54AM-0.29m
6:49PM0.62m
7:35AM-0.23m
7:41PM0.52m
8:14AM-0.12m
8:33PM0.45m
8:52AM0.03m
9:25PM0.39m
9:29AM0.22m
10:19PM0.35m
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:22
6:22
6:24
6:24
6:26
6:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:10
8:09
8:08
8:07
8:06
8:05
8:04
 mm
Temp °C
11
14
14
12
14
15
13
13
14
13
14
14
14
13
14
13
13
14
14
Feels °C
9
12
13
11
13
14
11
12
12
11
14
12
10
11
12
9
12
12
10
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  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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