Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 25 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 30 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 27 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 19s period, SW swell with 911 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 30 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.6m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.9m and 16s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.1m 19s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 5PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 5PM (Mon 27th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right, let’s get into it. It’s been a bit quiet here at Drakes Estero (beach/river setup) and, truth be told, the first several days are a write-off. The water’s a touch warmer than normal for this time of year at 58.6°, which is nice, but the surf just isn’t doing its job. For the opening weekend and into the start of the new week, we’re looking at a weak, short-period swell from the southwest around 2.6ft to 3.3ft, and it’s being hammered by a fresh northwesterly breeze. The combined energy is moderate (905 down to 831), but the cross-off wind makes it messy and uninviting. Honestly, nothing to get excited about.
We’ve got a long gap of poor to marginal conditions all the way through Monday afternoon, and even into Tuesday and Wednesday, the wind stiffens up to a strong breeze, hitting 25-28 mph. The swell bumps up slightly to 3.6ft, but the energy is all over the place, and the period is short. It’s just not worth paddling out for.
Now, Thursday the 30th of July – that’s the first real blip of hope. The morning shows a cleaner 6.2ft swell from the WNW, but the period is a very short 8 seconds, so it’s going to be a bit lumpy and fast. The wind eases off to a gentle breeze, and the combined energy is strong (1161). It’s marked as excellent for experienced surfers, but with that short period, it’s going to be a bit of a battle. Still, the best we’ve seen so far.
The end of the week and into the first weekend of August looks marginal again, with the swell dropping back to 3ft and the wind turning cross-on. Not great.
But hold on – Monday the 3rd of August is the standout. The morning session brings a clean 5.9ft WNW swell with a 9-second period, and the wind is light. The combined energy is moderate (648), but it’s the most consistent-looking window we’ve had. This is the one to aim for. After that, the wind picks up again and the swell drops off, so don’t sleep on that Monday morning.
The second week run into the 8th of August shows a drop-off. The wind goes onshore, the swell weakens, and the energy dips to low levels (around 224). There’s a nice glassy morning on the 8th with a 3ft NW swell, but it’s small and weak. A quiet end to the outlook.
Best bet: Monday the 3rd of August, early. That’s your window.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Sun night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Mon night, light winds from the NW by Thu morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 24 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | SSW 16 | WNW 8 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 661 | 389 | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 614 | 442 | 621 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 560 | 617 | 740 | 436 | 458 | 358 | 334 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:56PM1.70m | 11:50AM1.27m | 9:43PM1.72m | 12:28PM1.31m | 10:26PM1.75m | 1:00PM1.33m | 11:07PM1.76m | 1:30PM1.34m | 11:46PM1.76m | 1:56PM1.36m | 00:25AM1.74m | 2:22PM1.39m | 1:03AM1.69m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:34PM0.94m | 5:01AM0.03m | 4:29PM0.95m | 5:42AM-0.03m | 5:16PM0.94m | 6:19AM-0.08m | 5:57PM0.91m | 6:53AM-0.11m | 6:34PM0.87m | 7:24AM-0.12m | 7:11PM0.82m | 7:54AM-0.12m | 7:47PM0.77m | |||||||
 |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  | | | |  | |
 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | 8:28 | — | — | 8:27 | — | — | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:22 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
Feels °C | 10 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | WNW 8 | SSW 15 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | 201 | 173 | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 614 | 442 | 621 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 560 | 617 | 617 | 436 | 264 | 358 | 280 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 24 | SW 22 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 21 | SSW 11 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SSW 10 | SSW 16 | SW 9 | SSW 15 |
| kJ | 661 | 389 | 113 | 57 | 56 | 35 | 35 | 162 | 40 | 46 | 124 | 56 | 50 | 33 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 436 | 3 | 334 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | SSW 11 | SW 14 | — | SSW 12 | S 10 | — | SW 11 | SW 11 | SSE 16 | SSE 15 | SW 9 | S 15 | S 14 |
| kJ | 43 | 25 | 25 | 37 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 40 | 30 | — | 57 | 2 | — | 33 | 29 | 51 | 74 | 3 | 109 | 144 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | NW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | — |
| kJ | 154 | 114 | 56 | 125 | 114 | 62 | 204 | 176 | 140 | 392 | 372 | 244 | 647 | 418 | 263 | 740 | 372 | 458 | 287 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 144 | 59 | 144 | 144 | 59 | 48 | 144 | 133 | 48 | 144 | 133 | 48 | 144 | 48 | 48 | 145 | 32 | 0 | 145 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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