Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee. The next 16 days are looking pretty one-dimensional – it’s mostly about Drakes Estero, and honestly, it’s a mixed bag until the second week. We’re looking at a long stretch of onshore-angled winds keeping things messy, with a few windows of cleaner, rideable surf that’ll stand out.

Starting off, Monday the 6th is nothing to write home about. A little 3ft SW groundswell, period of 16 seconds, but with a light cross-shore wind, it’s just going to be bumpy. The combined energy is a moderate 515, and the water temp is 57°, which is about normal for this time of year. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, but it’s not worth the drive.

The whole of the first week – from Monday the 6th right through to Monday the 13th – is dominated by fresh to strong cross-off winds from the NW. The swell builds up, peaking around Wednesday the 8th with a 8ft short-period (8 seconds) W-NW swell, and then again Friday the 10th, but the wind stays strong. You’ll see heights over 8ft on Thursday the 9th afternoon (8ft), which is expert territory, but the wind is a nasty 25 mph, so that’s for kite surfers, not paddlers. The wave energy gets strong – hitting 1464 on Wednesday the 8th – but the quality just isn’t there. Tuesday afternoon the 7th is clear with 22 mph wind – again, not clean for surfing. It’s a long gap of poor conditions.

The standout window starts on Sunday the 12th. That morning, the wind drops right back to a light 6 mph breeze from the WNW, with the swell coming from the NW at 7ft and a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is a solid 1132, and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. A 7ft swell is big enough to need some respect at a beach/river mouth setup, but the light wind will make it clean. That’s your best bet in the first half.

Then we get another clean one on Tuesday the 14th morning – clear skies, a light breeze from the WNW, and a 6ft NW swell (period 8 seconds). That’s very good surf conditions, a classic morning session.

After that, the wind picks back up through Wednesday and Thursday (15th and 16th), but then look at Friday the 17th to Saturday the 18th. We get a classic drop in swell size to a nice 2ft, but the period stretches out to 16 to 18 seconds – proper long-period groundswell from the W. The combined energy is still moderate at 602, but with a light 6 mph wind on Saturday morning, that will be glassy, clean, and fun. It’ll break a bit straight at the beach, but for a longboard or a fish, that’s a dreamy end to the period. That’s about the only one I’d get excited about for a mellow session. The crowds at Drakes Estero can be around sometimes, so expect company.

From Sunday the 19th onwards, it fades back into marginal stuff with stronger winds again. A gap of no real recommendations from the 19th to the 21st.

Overall, if you’re hanging out for a wave, your dates are Sunday the 12th morning for power, Tuesday the 14th morning for clean conditions, and the real standout is Saturday the 18th morning for long, clean groundswell. Keep an eye on the wind forecasts – that’s the key.

Rusty.

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