Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 13 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 18 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 8s period, WNW swell with 970 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 12 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 8s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 16) at 5AM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Wed 12th Aug) | 4ft (1.2m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Tue 18th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's chew the fat on what Drakes Estero is cooking up.
Straight up, the first few days are a bit of a grind. We've got some swell, but it's all messy short-period stuff with a lot of cross-shore wind, which just trashes the lineup. The water's about 58°, which is pretty standard for this time of year.
The first real window appears on Sunday, August 16th. The afternoon is looking clean with cross-offshore breezes. The swell is tiny, about 3ft from the SW, but it's got that long 16-second period, so it'll have some real grunt. The combined energy is 431 (moderate), so it's not a big day, but it's the kind of clean, lined-up swell that'll have you grinning ear to ear on a longboard. That's your best bet for the first week.
Now, brace yourselves for Tuesday, August 18th. The swell jumps to a solid 8ft from the WNW, but it's a short-period wind swell at 8 seconds. The combined energy blasts up to 1030 (very strong), and the wind is a strong cross-offshore. This is a powerful, unruly wave. The size and the stiff breeze mean this is strictly for the experienced crew. Beginners, this is a strict "watch from the sand" kind of day.
The rest of the second week stays pretty small. We see a few more clean afternoons, especially around Thursday, August 27th. That afternoon shows a 2.5ft SW swell at 14 seconds with clean, cross-offshore winds and a combined energy of 590 (moderate). The forecast is calling it "very good," which is the best we see in the whole 16-day window. It's a long way out, so don't book the time off yet, but it could be a real sleeper.
For the most part, Drakes Estero is offering up a lot of "maybe" days. The standouts are that Sunday the 16th for clean, friendly waves, and that long-range Thursday the 27th for a potential repeat. The big day on the 18th is a raw, powerful beast that's not for the faint of heart.
Stay stoked.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 12°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun morning, min 11°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 217 | 237 | 192 | 197 | 191 | 174 | 221 | 252 | 414 | 268 | 502 | 362 | 349 | 309 | 309 | 255 | 292 | 280 | 765 | 545 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | on | on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 00:18AM1.93m | 1:54PM1.57m | 1:09AM1.82m | 2:29PM1.62m | 2:01AM1.68m | 3:03PM1.65m | 2:54AM1.51m | 3:36PM1.67m | 3:52AM1.34m | 4:11PM1.66m | 5:02AM1.20m | 4:48PM1.64m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:49PM0.62m | 7:35AM-0.23m | 7:41PM0.52m | 8:14AM-0.12m | 8:33PM0.45m | 8:52AM0.03m | 9:25PM0.39m | 9:29AM0.22m | 10:19PM0.35m | 10:07AM0.42m | 11:17PM0.33m | 10:49AM0.62m | 00:20AM0.31m | |||||||
 |  |  | | | | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — |
 | 8:08 | — | — | 8:07 | — | — | 8:06 | — | — | 8:05 | — | — | 8:04 | — | — | 8:01 | — | — | 8:00 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SSW 16 |
| kJ | 217 | 237 | 192 | 197 | 157 | 107 | 76 | 54 | 414 | 268 | 502 | 362 | 349 | 309 | 309 | 255 | 214 | 217 | 261 | 169 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 6 | SW 13 | WNW 10 | WNW 6 | WNW 10 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 9 | SSW 18 | W 14 | S 10 | SSW 13 |
| kJ | 130 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 191 | 174 | 221 | 252 | 32 | 85 | 20 | 36 | 31 | 36 | 41 | 26 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 67 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 13 | SW 13 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | S 11 | WNW 10 | S 10 | WNW 9 | W 8 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | W 14 |
| kJ | 67 | 44 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 97 | 102 | 167 | 20 | 36 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 29 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 65 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | — | WNW 6 | — | — | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21 | 49 | — | 33 | — | — | 50 | 292 | 280 | 765 | 545 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 271 | 5 | 5 | 145 | 48 | 23 | 147 | 26 | 48 | 145 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 215 | 23 | 26 | 145 | 17 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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