Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 4 am 22 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.8° C
0.2° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, NW swell with 993 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 28 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with NW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 5PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 18s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 11s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 8PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 5PM (Tue 28th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Best Surf 5PM (Tue 28th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 8PM (Tue 28th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, grab a coffee, this is a long one. Rusty here.

Honestly, looking through the whole 16 days, it starts real slow and stays mostly marginal. There’s a glimmer at the end of the first week, but the real highlight is a massive, expert-only pulse right at the beginning. For the rest, you’ll be working for scraps. The water temp at Drakes Estero is 57°F, which is pretty much spot-on average for the time of year, so no nasty surprises there.

Our main spot is Drakes Estero, a beach/river setup exposed to the southwest. We don’t get a proper start until Wednesday the 22nd, and even then, it’s only a small 5ft SSW swell with 9 mph onshore wind, giving us marginal, messy conditions. That sets the tone. Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th are poor, with clean but tiny 2ft to 3ft waves and fresh winds. This stretch is a write-off for paddling.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th see the swell holding around 3ft to 3ft from the SW, still clean but underpowered. The wave energy is moderate (913 on Sunday morning), but it's not enough to get excited about. This pattern of small, clean but gutless surf continues right through to Tuesday morning the 28th.

Then, Tuesday afternoon the 28th of July hits, and it’s a whole different ballgame. We get a sudden spike: a 10ft swell from the NW, but the period is a short 8 seconds. This is a pulse of raw, chunky, short-period energy. The combined energy is a massive 1773, which is very strong. However, at this size, it’s strictly for experts only. For a beginner, this is dangerous. The cross-off wind will hold it open, but that short period means it will be a wall of whitewater, not a clean, lined-up wave. It’s a one-off pulse before things drop back down.

After that big spike, Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th are still clean but with messy, windy 8ft to 7ft swell and near-gale force winds. This is less about surfing and more about survival. Friday the 31st is slightly better, with a 8ft NW swell and a moderate breeze, but the period is still short (8 seconds). The energy is strong (1411), so there’s plenty of push, but the shape will be poor.

The first real standout for a normal surfer arrives on Saturday the 1st of August. The morning is the pick: a 5ft WNW swell with a light breeze. It’s clean, the cross-off wind is holding it up, and at 5ft it’s manageable for most intermediates. The wave energy is moderate (678), and overall it’s a much better prospect. The afternoon gets windier and less appealing.

Sunday the 2nd of August morning is another decent call. A 4ft SSW swell with a long 14 second period and light winds. That long period will give it some real push and shape, but at a beach break like Drakes Estero, a long period groundswell can make the waves wall up and close out. Still, it’s worth a look. After that, it goes marginal again from Monday the 3rd through to Thursday the 6th, with small, onshore or light wind conditions. The final day, Thursday afternoon, is a tiny 2ft S swell with a long 15 second period and light cross-onshore wind – not much to write home about.

So, the standout is the big expert pulse on the 28th, and the most promising clean, manageable window for the rest of us is the morning of Saturday the 1st of August. The gaps between these events are filled with small, windy, or just plain poor conditions, especially from the 23rd to the 27th. It’s a real mixed bag.

Keep your wetsuit on, the forecasts can change. Rusty out.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed morning, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSW on Wed afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Fri night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat morning, min 12°C on Sat night). Mainly strong winds.

Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
!
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.5
SSW
9
0.8
SSW
14
0.8
SSW
14
0.9
SSW
14
0.6
SW
14
0.5
SW
26
0.6
SW
24
0.7
SW
24
0.6
SW
22
0.9
SW
21
0.8
SW
21
0.9
SW
20
0.9
SW
19
0.9
SW
19
0.8
SW
18
1
SW
18
1.1
SW
19
2
WNW
7
1
SW
18
3
NW
8
1
SW
17
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
352
236
264
321
158
329
448
541
389
763
543
634
627
614
442
621
791
440
600
942
560
Wind (km/h)
15
S
15
W
20
NW
25
NW
30
WNW
30
NW
30
NW
35
WNW
30
NW
35
NW
40
NW
35
NW
30
NW
40
NW
35
NW
30
NW
40
NW
40
NW
35
NW
45
NW
35
NW
Wind State
on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
8:23AM1.06m
7:21PM1.67m
9:55AM1.12m
8:09PM1.68m
11:01AM1.21m
8:56PM1.70m
11:50AM1.27m
9:43PM1.72m
12:28PM1.31m
10:26PM1.75m
1:00PM1.33m
11:07PM1.76m
1:30PM1.34m
11:46PM1.76m
Low Tide
1:23PM0.75m
3:21AM0.19m
2:30PM0.87m
4:15AM0.10m
3:34PM0.94m
5:01AM0.03m
4:29PM0.95m
5:42AM-0.03m
5:16PM0.94m
6:19AM-0.08m
5:57PM0.91m
6:53AM-0.11m
6:34PM0.87m
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:05
6:05
6:07
6:07
6:09
6:09
6:11
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:29
8:29
8:28
8:27
8:25
8:24
8:23
 mm
Temp °C
16
16
15
13
15
14
15
16
14
16
16
15
14
15
14
15
16
14
15
16
15
Feels °C
14
15
13
9
10
8
10
11
7
10
10
8
9
10
6
10
9
6
9
8
7
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
How to use the Wavefinder 
submit an eyeball surf report

Quick surf report for Drakes Estero:

join our community of surf reporters

FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website

The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Drakes Estero surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.


Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

Nearest locationNearest