Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 pm 30 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.3° C
0.7° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 31 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 2,010 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 19s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Best Surf 8PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 5AM (Mon 3rd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

We’re starting off a bit slow, but there’s a window of proper surf coming up if you’re patient. The first real chance to get wet kicks off on Friday, July 31st, but it’s not much to write home about. Drakes Estero has some swell, but the wind is a cross-off at 12 mph, and the wave energy is weak (676). The swell is a short 3 ft from the SSW, so it’s a beginner wave at best—not worth rushing out for.

Saturday, August 1st, sees the swell bumping up, but the wind gets nasty. By the afternoon, we’re looking at 8 ft from the WNW and a fresh breeze at 25 mph. That’s a lot of chop for a beach/river setup, and the energy is moderate (1021). It’s going to be a mess, and honestly, that kind of wind and size makes it more interesting for kiteboarding than paddle surfing.

Sunday, August 2nd, is a similar story. The swell hangs around 7 ft to 8 ft, but the wind is still cross-off and strong. The energy is up there (1149 by Sunday afternoon), but the quality is just not there for a clean paddle.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Monday, August 3rd, is the standout of this whole forecast. Drakes Estero wakes up. The morning is glassy—wind from the WSW at 3 mph, and it’s dead calm. Swell is a nice 7 ft from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, giving it real shape and power. The wave energy is strong (933). This is a long-period groundswell, so it’ll wrap in with some proper lines, but that period can make it a bit straight at a beach break. Still, with glassy conditions, this is the best you’ll see. The water temp is about average for the time of year, no weird anomalies to worry about.

After that Monday morning window, the surf drops off hard. The wind swings onshore from Tuesday, August 4th, through to Wednesday, August 5th, and the swell drops to 3 ft or less. The energy plummets, and it’s poor to marginal. Thursday, August 6th, you’re looking at tiny 2 ft waves with no energy to speak of (183). It’s a total flat spell.

We then hit a long gap of very small, weak surf from Friday, August 7th, through to Tuesday, August 11th. The swell is under 2 ft, and the period is long (14-19 seconds) but the height is just too small to do anything. The energy is weak to moderate (200-440 range), but don’t be fooled—it’s not surfable.

Then things pick up again in the second week, but it’s a different story. Wednesday, August 12th, into Thursday, August 13th, is your next best bet. The swell ticks up to 2 ft-3 ft from the SW, with a very long period of 16-18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy jumps to 746 on Wednesday afternoon and 617 on Thursday afternoon. Winds are light and cross-off or glassy. At a beach/river spot like Drakes Estero, that long period might make for a bit of a closeout, but for a point or reef, it would be magic. It’s still small, but it’ll be clean and fun for a longboard. The crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might have some company, but it’s not a zoo.

The outlook fades out after that, with tiny SW swell tapering off into the weekend. It’s a classic case of a few good days buried in a heap of mediocrity.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Fri night, light winds from the NW by Sun morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 13°C on Sun night). Mainly fresh winds.

Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
0
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
2
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.7
WNW
8
0.9
SSW
14
2
WNW
7
1.9
WNW
7
1.6
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
8
2.4
WNW
9
2.1
WNW
9
2.4
WNW
9
2.5
WNW
10
2.1
WNW
10
1.8
WNW
10
1.9
WNW
10
1.5
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
9
0.8
WNW
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
334
289
383
372
292
840
888
782
1014
1280
848
661
711
362
280
173
150
168
101
Wind (km/h)
25
NW
20
NW
35
NW
30
NW
25
NW
40
NW
30
NW
15
NW
35
NW
25
NW
5
WSW
15
NW
10
SSE
15
SSE
10
S
10
SSE
20
SSE
10
S
10
SSE
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
on
on
on
on
on
on
on
High Tide
1:03AM1.69m
2:48PM1.44m
1:43AM1.61m
3:14PM1.49m
2:27AM1.51m
3:42PM1.55m
3:17AM1.37m
4:12PM1.62m
4:19AM1.23m
4:48PM1.68m
5:43AM1.11m
5:31PM1.74m
Low Tide
8:23AM-0.09m
8:26PM0.70m
8:52AM-0.02m
9:09PM0.63m
9:23AM0.09m
9:58PM0.55m
9:56AM0.25m
10:54PM0.46m
10:32AM0.43m
11:58PM0.36m
11:16AM0.61m
1:10AM0.24m
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:13
6:13
6:15
6:16
6:16
6:16
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:22
8:22
8:21
8:20
8:19
8:17
8:16
 mm
Temp °C
13
14
15
14
15
16
15
15
15
14
16
15
13
16
17
15
16
16
14
Feels °C
5
10
9
6
11
9
8
12
11
7
16
14
11
14
16
15
14
14
14
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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