Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Issued: 10 pm 06 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.9° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 7 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with 1,415 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 5PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 5PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Best Surf 5PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Most Powerful 8PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright folks, Rusty here, and we're looking at the next couple of weeks at Drakes Estero. It's a beginner-friendly beach-and-river setup that's fairly consistent, but don't expect much action straight away. We've got a run of marginal days to start, with a slow build into something worth paddling for later on.

The first real surfable window doesn't really open until the morning of July 8 – that's Wednesday morning – with swell around 3 ft from the SW, period a long 19 seconds, and cross-off NW wind at 19 mph. But honestly, it's only a 1 out of 10 for quality, and the wave comment says "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions". Not where I'd waste my wax.

The build continues through July 9 (Thursday): morning sees 6 ft from the WNW, 9-second period, and NW wind at 16 mph cross-off. Energy is moderate at 1367. Still just a 2/10 score – something's off with the tide or shape. Thursday afternoon jumps to 10 ft but the guidance says it's "too big for this break" – we're talking 1538 energy (strong) and a score of 11/10 for power, but not for your standard surfing. Beginners stay out. This size will be more suited to kites than paddles on that exposed beach.

The next couple of days – July 10 (Friday) morning gives us 6 ft WNW, 9-second period, NW wind 12 mph cross-off, energy 1068, and a score of 3/10. Still marginal but the cleanest we've seen. Friday afternoon picks up to 7 ft, but period drops to 8 seconds and wind picks up to 22 mph – messy.

From July 11 through July 17 it's a blur of similar marginal stuff: heights ranging 5 ft to 8 ft, mostly short-period (8-9 seconds), cross-off winds but always with a "marginal" or "poor" tag. A few afternoons hit 10 ft again and get the "too big" flag. Not much to write home about.

Then – and this is the one to mark – Saturday, July 18 morning. That's a full 11 days out, so take it with a pinch of salt, but the models say we finally get a proper window. Swell 6 ft from the WNW, period pushing 10 seconds, wind drops to a gentle 9 mph NW cross-off. Energy is 1007 (moderate), and the wave comment says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers". That's the standout. For a break that's mostly beginner-friendly, 6 ft will be a step up – not scary, but you'll want some experience under your belt. Crowds are “sometimes” possible, so expect company if it cleans up. The long-period groundswell (10s) should wrap into the river mouth nicely, giving those longer, more powerful lines.

After that, the tail end of the period – July 19 to 22 – fades into small SW and SSW groundswells around 2 ft to 4 ft with light winds, but scores are down to 0–2. Not worth chasing.

So bottom line: the first week is a write-off. The best bet is Saturday July 18 morning. If you can wait, that's your clean shot. Otherwise, stay dry.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NW on Tue morning, strong winds from the NW by Wed night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Thu night, light winds from the WNW by Sun morning).

Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Mon
13
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
2
!
2
3
1
1
1
0
1
2
1
1
2
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.7
SW
20
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
2.2
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
1.9
WNW
9
3
WNW
9
2.4
WNW
9
1.8
WNW
9
2.2
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
9
2.2
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
388
384
465
455
600
546
735
549
1162
909
486
651
513
307
319
559
390
452
513
500
651
Wind (km/h)
30
NW
25
NW
40
NW
35
NW
30
NW
40
NW
35
NW
25
NW
40
NW
30
NW
20
NW
35
NW
30
NW
25
NW
40
NW
25
NW
20
WNW
25
NW
25
NW
20
NW
30
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
5:37AM1.12m
6:24PM1.64m
7:15AM1.04m
7:06PM1.73m
8:59AM1.06m
7:54PM1.83m
10:24AM1.15m
8:45PM1.92m
11:29AM1.25m
9:40PM1.99m
12:22PM1.33m
10:35PM2.05m
1:09PM1.40m
Low Tide
00:36AM0.54m
11:57AM0.37m
1:44AM0.37m
12:48PM0.55m
2:48AM0.17m
1:48PM0.71m
3:48AM-0.02m
2:53PM0.83m
4:42AM-0.20m
3:58PM0.88m
5:35AM-0.33m
5:00PM0.88m
6:25AM-0.42m
5:58PM0.85m
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:54
5:56
5:56
5:56
5:58
5:58
5:58
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:36
8:36
8:36
8:35
8:35
 mm
Temp °C
12
13
12
12
13
13
12
14
13
12
14
14
13
14
15
14
15
15
14
15
15
Feels °C
7
9
6
5
8
7
4
10
7
4
11
10
6
10
8
7
12
11
9
12
10
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.7
SW
20
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
1
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.6
SW
15
0.7
SW
14
0.7
SW
14
0.7
SSW
14
0.6
SSW
14
0.6
SSW
13
Energy kJ
388
384
465
455
600
521
381
381
376
291
291
236
217
217
220
186
206
211
178
121
118
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.7
WNW
11
0.6
SW
16
0.5
SW
15
0.5
SW
15
0.4
SSW
19
0.4
SW
14
0.9
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.1
S
21
0.1
W
18
0.1
W
16
0.2
W
18
0.1
W
15
0.2
W
16
0.2
W
16
0.2
W
14
Energy kJ
111
198
104
104
124
46
437
291
9
6
5
24
4
19
21
16
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SW
16
0.7
WNW
11
0.2
S
8
0.2
SSW
11
0.1
W
18
0.1
W
20
0.1
W
18
0.1
SW
21
0.1
SW
21
0.2
WSW
20
Energy kJ
206
103
5
12
6
8
6
18
18
37
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.5
WNW
6
1.3
WNW
7
2
WNW
7
1.8
WNW
7
1.6
WNW
8
2.2
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
1.9
WNW
9
3
WNW
9
2.4
WNW
9
1.8
WNW
9
2.2
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
9
2.2
WNW
8
Energy kJ
175
164
342
333
285
546
735
549
1162
909
486
651
513
307
319
559
390
452
513
500
651
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
4
2
2
3
3
2
3
3
2
4
3
2
3
2
2
3
3
2
2
3
2
Distance (km)
32
145
145
60
26
144
48
26
145
32
32
145
32
26
144
26
48
145
26
32
145
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County
Rating
(10 max)
4
3
4
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
Best forecast wave conditions in United States
Rating
(10 max)
4
2
2
4
4
2
4
4
2
4
3
2
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
5
5
9
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
6
8
6
5
5
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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