Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 11 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 15 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with 1,291 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 12 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 8s period with NW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.6m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 14s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Sun 12th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
Alright folks, Rusty here, with a look at what's coming down the pipe for Drakes Estero. It's gonna be a bit of a mixed bag, so let's get into it.
Right now, we've got a bit of a slow start. The first few days are looking pretty lackluster, with a lot of marginal surf on offer. The swell is there, but the wind is mostly a cross-off breeze that's just not letting things clean up proper. It's a bit of a waiting game.
Let's talk about Sunday, July 12th – that's the real standout. Early doors on Sunday morning, we've got a clean 5ft swell rolling in from the WNW with moderate wave energy (536). The wind is a light breeze, crossing off the shore, which is about as good as it gets for keeping things glassy. It’s a solid window for a session, and honestly, it’s the best bet in the whole 16-day run for a proper clean wave.
After that, the pattern gets a bit messy again. We've got some small windows of potential, but the wind keeps picking up through the middle of the week. By Wednesday, July 15th afternoon, the wind is cranking at 25 mph from the NW, making a mess of the 8ft swell. That's not for paddling; that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, to be honest.
The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about what you'd expect for this time of year – nothing crazy.
Looking further ahead, around Friday, July 24th, things start to look a bit more promising again. The afternoon shows a 5ft WNW swell with light winds and clean conditions. It’s a long way out, so don't set your watch by it just yet, but it’s something to keep an eye on. The following Saturday, July 25th afternoon has a similar vibe with the same clean conditions and a 5ft WNW swell.
So, to wrap it up: if you're itching for a wave, your best bet is to pencil in Sunday morning, July 12th. The rest of the week will be a case of picking your moments with the wind, but that one session is the one to aim for.
Stay stoked.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun morning, min 11°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Fri night, calm by Sun morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Tue morning, min 11°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Tue morning, strong winds from the NW by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Fri 17 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | SW 15 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 236 | 217 | 262 | 277 | 309 | 316 | 409 | 261 | 351 | 318 | 232 | 260 | 392 | 400 | 903 | 909 | 947 | 520 | 469 | 245 | 217 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:45PM1.92m | 11:29AM1.25m | 9:40PM1.99m | 12:22PM1.33m | 10:35PM2.05m | 1:09PM1.40m | 11:29PM2.06m | 1:53PM1.45m | 00:23AM2.02m | 2:34PM1.49m | 1:16AM1.93m | 3:15PM1.53m | 2:09AM1.79m | 3:55PM1.58m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:42AM-0.20m | 3:58PM0.88m | 5:35AM-0.33m | 5:00PM0.88m | 6:25AM-0.42m | 5:58PM0.85m | 7:14AM-0.45m | 6:55PM0.79m | 8:00AM-0.43m | 7:52PM0.72m | 8:44AM-0.35m | 8:50PM0.65m | 9:27AM-0.22m | ||||||||
 |  | |  | | |  | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — |
 | 8:36 | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:34 | — | — | 8:34 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:32 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 5 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 9 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WNW 9 | SW 16 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 |
| kJ | 217 | 217 | 220 | 277 | 309 | 208 | 206 | 261 | 156 | 154 | 106 | 85 | 87 | 61 | 101 | 90 | 573 | 89 | 469 | 245 | 217 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 22 | — | W 18 | SW 15 | SW 14 | W 18 | W 16 | SSW 14 | W 14 | SW 19 | W 14 | W 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SSW 12 | W 20 | SW 16 | W 19 | W 18 | W 17 | W 17 |
| kJ | 9 | — | 6 | 232 | 203 | 6 | 19 | 161 | 34 | 96 | 36 | 65 | 152 | 109 | 56 | 127 | 89 | 114 | 159 | 217 | 217 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | S 10 | S 10 | W 18 | W 15 | SW 21 | W 16 | WSW 20 | W 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | W 13 | W 13 | W 20 | SSW 12 | W 19 | SSW 12 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 14 |
| kJ | — | — | 2 | 2 | 24 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 37 | 38 | 58 | 50 | 56 | 31 | 72 | 27 | 116 | 26 | 77 | 130 | 74 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | — | — | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | — | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 236 | 140 | 262 | — | — | 316 | 409 | — | 351 | 318 | 232 | 260 | 392 | 400 | 903 | 909 | 947 | 520 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 32 | 26 | 240 | 23 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 1 | 145 | 24 | 48 | 145 | 26 | 26 | 145 | 26 | 26 | 145 | 144 | 145 | 145 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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