Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Drakes Estero.

The first week has a bit of a mixed bag. We've got some windows of clean, fun-sized surf early on, but it does get a bit blown out and messy towards the middle of the week. The best of the early action is definitely this Sunday morning, the 12th. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is pretty much spot on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Sunday morning the 12th is your standout. We're looking at a solid 4ft swell from the WNW, with an 8-second period. The wind is glassy from the SSW, so the surface will be pure silk. The combined wave energy is moderate at 441. It's a beginner-friendly spot, and the waves should be clean and playful. It won't be huge, but it'll be a joy.

Sunday afternoon the wind swings to a cross-offshore breeze, keeping the 4ft swell clean. Monday the 13th is similar, with a 4ft to 5ft swell holding in, still cross-off and clean. Monday afternoon sees a bump up to 5ft with a bit more energy (507), and it's still very clean. That's a solid run.

Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th, the swell stays around 4ft to 5ft, and while the winds are cross-off, the conditions get a bit more marginal. The energy is still there, but it's not as crisp. Wednesday afternoon, the swell jumps up to 8ft, but with a 19 mph breeze, it's going to be a bit of a handful and not the cleanest. That's one for the experts only, if anyone's keen.

By Thursday the 16th, the wind really picks up to 25 mph, making things pretty poor. Friday the 17th sees onshore winds, so it's a write-off. The standouts are definitely Sunday through Monday.

Then we hit a bit of a lull. From Saturday the 18th through to the end of the week, the swell drops right off to 2ft to 3ft. There's a long-period groundswell (16-18 seconds) coming in, but it's tiny. That long period will make it break straight and fat at a beach/river setup like this. It's more of a longboard cruise than anything punchy. The best of this flat spell is Sunday the 19th morning, with a 2ft swell and cross-offshore winds, but you're really scratching for it.

Now, looking further out, there's a glimmer. Saturday the 25th offers a clean 4ft from the SSW, with moderate energy (932). It's promising, but it's a long way out. The next real standout is Sunday the 26th morning. We've got a tiny 2ft swell, but it’s from the SW with a very long 20-second period. The energy is moderate (576) and the wind is cross-off. It's a very long-range call, so don't book the trip yet, but it could be a beautiful, glassy morning if it comes together. The wind does get ugly that afternoon though.

So, overall, the window is narrow. Hit it Sunday morning the 12th to Monday the 13th for the cleanest, most consistent waves. The rest of the forecast is either too windy, too small, or too far out to be sure of.

Rusty.

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