Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 8 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,255 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 8 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 17s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 08) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Sat 8th Aug) | 1.5ft (0.5m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 2AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break it down.
We’ve got one spot to look at for the next couple of weeks: Drakes Estero. It’s a beach and river mouth setup, open to a SW swell. The water temp is about normal for this time of year, nothing out of the ordinary.
The start is slow. Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are tiny, with a little bump Sunday morning hitting 6ft from the WNW, but the wind is moderate and cross-offshore, keeping the surface clean. The best session in the first week looks like Tuesday the 11th afternoon. You’ve got a clean 4ft WNW swell with a light cross-offshore breeze. The spot breaks fairly consistently, so you’ll get waves, but expect some company as crowds are possible.
Monday the 10th is similar in size but the wind is cross-on, making it less appealing. Things go south from Wednesday the 12th through Friday the 14th with onshore winds and poor conditions. The wave energy is moderate, hanging around 500-560, but it’s not worth your time.
The weekend brings a good one. Saturday the 16th morning is the standout. The swell drops to 3ft but it’s a long-period SW groundswell (16 seconds) with glassy conditions. That’s clean, lined-up surf, though at a beach/river mouth it might be a bit straight. It’s still the best looking window of the whole forecast. Sunday the 17th morning also cleans up nicely with a cross-offshore breeze on 2ft SW swell.
The second week gets a little wild. Tuesday the 19th afternoon jumps to 8ft from the WNW, but with a period of only 6 seconds, it’s short-period wind swell, not proper groundswell. It’ll be too big and messy for beginners. The energy is moderate (674). Wednesday the 20th morning is the last real highlight: 5ft WNW swell, cross-offshore wind, and clean conditions. The energy is moderate (599). After that, the swell fades and the wind turns messy, leading to a flat end by the 23rd.
So, your best bets: Tuesday the 11th afternoon for a reliable, clean session, and Saturday the 16th morning for the best quality if you can get out. The long-range stuff on the 19th and 20th is interesting but not locked in yet.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 11°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, fresh winds from the NW by Sun night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu morning, min 12°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 133 | 204 | 202 | 646 | 533 | 559 | 1255 | 407 | 280 | 354 | 267 | 249 | 480 | 354 | 363 | 453 | 314 | 212 | 191 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 10:25AM1.23m | 8:28PM1.90m | 11:17AM1.32m | 9:31PM1.96m | 12:01PM1.40m | 10:30PM1.99m | 12:41PM1.46m | 11:25PM1.98m | 1:19PM1.52m | 00:18AM1.93m | 1:54PM1.57m | 1:09AM1.82m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:30AM-0.03m | 2:48PM0.94m | 4:30AM-0.16m | 3:59PM0.91m | 5:23AM-0.25m | 5:00PM0.83m | 6:10AM-0.30m | 5:56PM0.73m | 6:54AM-0.29m | 6:49PM0.62m | 7:35AM-0.23m | 7:41PM0.52m | |||||||
 |  | |  | | | | | | | | |  | | |  |  | | | |
 | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — |
 | 8:14 | — | 8:13 | — | — | 8:12 | — | — | 8:10 | — | — | 8:09 | — | — | 8:08 | — | — | 8:07 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Feels °C | 10 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | SSW 15 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | W 8 |
| kJ | 82 | 117 | 103 | 646 | 533 | 148 | 817 | 407 | 280 | 354 | 267 | 249 | 480 | 354 | 363 | 453 | 314 | 212 | 55 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SW 11 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 133 | 204 | 202 | 169 | 169 | 20 | 142 | 138 | 92 | 69 | 70 | 100 | 194 | 150 | 130 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 191 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 12 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 21 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 12 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | S 11 | S 11 | NW 9 |
| kJ | 28 | 20 | 35 | 37 | 22 | 18 | 24 | 23 | 60 | 97 | 94 | 113 | 28 | 65 | 67 | 27 | 21 | 21 | 46 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 6 | — | — | — | — | WNW 9 | NW 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 3 | SSE 4 | S 4 | S 4 |
| kJ | 104 | — | — | — | — | 559 | 1255 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 457 | 240 | 0 | 26 | 490 | 23 | 268 | 195 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 75 | 23 | 48 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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