Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 17 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period, W swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 21 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 12s period, SSW swell with 634 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period with W swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 1.3m and 7s. Another secondary swell of 1.7m and 7s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 2PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Tue 21st Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down this stretch of surf.
The first few days are a bit of a grind. The water’s sitting at 57°F, which is about average for the season.
Thursday 16th July gets going with a chunky 8ft swell from the WNW, but a 28 mph cross-offshore wind is going to rip it to shreds. The combined energy is moderate at 936, but it’s a tough paddle. I’d sit this one out.
Friday 17th July isn’t much better. The swell drops to 5ft, but the wind is still blowing 15-19 mph from the NW. It’s surfable, but it’s not going to be pretty.
The first real window opens up on Saturday Morning, 18th July. The wind drops right back to a light 9 mph cross-off, and the swell cleans up to a tiny 2ft from the W. The period is a long 16 seconds, so it’s got some proper groundswell energy (575). It’s small, but it’ll be clean and lined up. Perfect for a longboard. The swell direction is right on the money for Drakes Estero.
Sunday 19th July is more of the same: small, clean, and long-period. A light 6 mph wind keeps the surface smooth. A nice, mellow morning.
That pattern of small, clean groundswell rolls into Monday 20th July. Light wind again at 6 mph, with a 3ft S swell. A solid, fun little run.
Now, the standout of the week is Tuesday 21st July. The swell bumps up to 4ft from the SSW, but the real magic is the wind. It’s going to be glassy, dead calm, with a 3 mph breeze. The ocean is going to be a mirror. The combined energy is moderate at 578, and with a 13-second period, it’s going to be the cleanest and most fun day of the bunch. Expect the crowds for sure.
From Wednesday onward, the cross-offshore NW wind comes back, keeping the surf messy. The swell stays small, between 2ft and 4ft, but it’s just not worth the hassle.
Looking ahead to Tuesday 28th July afternoon, the forecast shows a big jump: a 10ft swell from the WNW with a short 8-second period. The combined energy is a massive 2179, which is very strong. But the catch is it’s predicted to be way too big for this spot. That’s a monster, short-period wall of water. Only for the hardcore crew.
To sum it up, the best bet is the window from Saturday 18th through Tuesday 21st July. The clear winner is Tuesday morning, 21st July for the glassy, clean 4ft surf.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Thu afternoon, light winds from the WNW by Sat morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Warm (max 23°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Thu 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | W 16 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | SW 16 | S 13 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 11 | SW 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 15 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 770 | 532 | 307 | 372 | 254 | 251 | 314 | 239 | 170 | 362 | 254 | 229 | 302 | 362 | 475 | 491 | 423 | 245 | 239 | 339 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:15PM1.53m | 2:09AM1.79m | 3:55PM1.58m | 3:04AM1.60m | 4:34PM1.61m | 4:03AM1.40m | 5:14PM1.64m | 5:13AM1.21m | 5:54PM1.65m | 6:40AM1.08m | 6:36PM1.66m | 8:23AM1.06m | 7:21PM1.67m | |||||||
Low Tide | 8:50PM0.65m | 9:27AM-0.22m | 9:51PM0.59m | 10:08AM-0.05m | 10:54PM0.53m | 10:50AM0.15m | 00:01AM0.46m | 11:34AM0.37m | 1:11AM0.38m | 12:24PM0.58m | 2:19AM0.28m | 1:23PM0.75m | 3:21AM0.19m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  |  | |  | | | | | | |  | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — |
 | 8:32 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:29 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 23 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 14 |
Feels °C | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 19 | 22 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | W 18 | W 17 | W 17 | W 16 | WNW 7 | W 16 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | S 13 | SW 16 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 11 | SSW 9 | S 8 | SSW 15 |
| kJ | 124 | 159 | 217 | 215 | 254 | 134 | 248 | 111 | 157 | 150 | 123 | 92 | 255 | 362 | 475 | 491 | 423 | 238 | 137 | 339 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 12 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 14 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | W 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | S 13 | WNW 8 | S 12 | WNW 8 | NW 9 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SSW 14 | S 8 |
| kJ | 26 | 77 | 130 | 74 | 72 | 251 | 314 | 239 | 170 | 362 | 254 | 229 | 90 | 180 | 46 | 37 | 223 | 245 | 239 | 40 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 13 | NW 10 | SW 16 | W 15 | W 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | NW 8 | WNW 13 | S 10 | NW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 12 | SW 19 |
| kJ | 16 | 54 | 74 | 122 | 49 | 190 | 44 | 46 | 165 | 159 | 106 | 203 | 302 | 70 | 57 | 46 | 23 | 17 | 28 | 58 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | — | WNW 7 | NW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 4 | — | NW 3 | WNW 5 |
| kJ | 770 | 532 | 307 | 372 | 209 | — | 114 | 193 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | — | 12 | 94 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 144 | 32 | 145 | 145 | 26 | 0 | 145 | 26 | 0 | 145 | 23 | 0 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 5 | 5 | 147 | 32 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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