Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let me break it down for you, looking at the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up, but there are some windows to keep an eye on.

The first few days are a bit rough. Thursday the 9th has some swell, but the wind is up and the quality is marginal. It’s not a complete write-off, but you’d be battling. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s a small bonus.

Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th are pretty much a write-off. The swell is chunky and messy, with strong, cross-offshore winds making things unpleasant. The wave energy is moderate but the conditions are poor. Not worth your time.

Sunday the 12th starts to look a little better. The morning has a 5ft swell from the WNW with a 9-second period, and the wind is light enough to keep things clean. The energy is moderate (631). It’s not a classic, but it’s a step in the right direction. The afternoon gets a bit windier, so the morning is the call.

Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th are still marginal. There’s size, but the wind is a constant factor, keeping the surface from getting that glassy look. The energy is moderate, but it’s workable if you’re keen.

Wednesday the 15th is a big red flag. The swell jumps to 12ft in the afternoon, but with a near-gale wind and a score of zero, this is a full-on expert-only, or more likely, a day to stay on the beach. The energy is strong (1801), but it’s going to be a mess.

Now, let’s talk about the good stuff. The real standout window is from Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th. Friday afternoon has a clean 4ft WNW swell with light winds. That’s a solid call. But the real gem is Drakes Estero on Saturday the 18th. The morning brings a 2ft swell from the west with a very long 16-second period, and the wind is light, making for glassy conditions. The energy is moderate (555). This is a classic, low-tide, long-period groundswell that will peel beautifully. It’s a beginner-friendly height, but the long period means it’s going to be a point-break style wave. It’s inconsistent, but when it comes, it’ll be worth the wait. Crowds are possible, as it’s sometimes busy.

Sunday the 19th holds similar clean conditions with a 2ft SW swell and a 16-second period. The energy is a bit lower (417), but still a lovely, clean, mellow day for a longboard or a SUP.

The following week, from the 20th to the 22nd, we see a new pulse of energy. Monday the 20th has a 4ft SSW swell with a 15-second period, and the energy is strong (1324). The wind is light, keeping it clean. Tuesday the 21st is a bit bigger at 5ft, but the wind picks up. Wednesday the 22nd morning is another good one: a 2ft SW swell with a 15-second period, with barely any wind. The energy is moderate (471). That’s another glassy session.

After that, the forecast gets a bit messy again with some onshore winds and smaller, less appealing surf through the 23rd and 24th. The morning of Friday the 24th has a small, clean 2ft SSW swell, but it’s light.

The Bottom Line: The best bet is the weekend of the 18th and 19th, with clean, long-period groundswell. The morning of Saturday the 18th at Drakes Estero is the standout. The Monday the 20th and Wednesday the 22nd mornings are also solid secondary options. Get on it.

Rusty.

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