Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the plate for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we've got a solid, long-period groundswell rolling in from the southwest. But don't get too excited just yet. The wind is a stubborn cross-offshore breeze, and while it's keeping the surf clean, it's also a bit on the strong side, making things a little bumpy and difficult. The water temperature is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might not need the thickest of wetsuits.

This first week is a bit of a mixed bag. Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th are seeing a 4ft southwest swell with a very long period of 18 to 19 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (746) and ramping up. The problem is that northwest wind is howling at 19 to 25 mph. It's "clean" in the sense of no rain, but it's working against the quality of the wave. Not ideal, but surfable for the determined.

Wednesday the 29th morning settles a bit with a 12 mph wind, and the swell is still 4ft, but the period drops to 16 seconds. The energy is still moderate (962). The afternoon is a weird one – the swell jumps to 8ft, but the period plummets to a short 8 seconds, and the wind is back up to 25 mph. That's a messy mix of wind chop and a weak, short-period swell. Not great.

Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st are similar stories. We're looking at a mix of a smaller, longer-period swell and a larger, short-period (8 seconds) windswell from the WNW. The wind stays moderate to fresh and cross-off. The energy is moderate to strong (values between 764 and 1312). The waves will be there, but they'll be lumpy and hard to read.

The best chance for a decent session in the whole window looks like it might be Sunday, August 2nd. The swell is building to 10ft with a 9-second period from the WNW. The wind is a much kinder 19 mph in the afternoon. The combined energy is extremely high (1535). But here's the catch – the forecast itself says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. At 10ft, this is strictly for experts only, and the beach/river mouth setup could get pretty wild and dangerous. For the average surfer, this is a "watch from the shore" kind of day.

The following Monday, August 3rd, has a moment of promise. The wind swings around to the south-southwest at just 3 mph, which is glassy and offshore. The swell is 6ft from the WNW with a 10-second period. The energy is moderate (782). This could be your best window for a clean, lined-up wave if you're an experienced surfer, but it's still a solid size.

After that, the whole forecast goes flat and quiet. From Tuesday the 4th through to the end of the outlook on Tuesday the 11th, it's a long stretch of small, weak, wind-affected swell. The waves simply aren't worth the paddle. The energy drops down to low, three-digit numbers (352 to 525), and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore a lot of the time. There's a tiny bump on the 6th and 8th with a 2ft, 19-second period south-southwest groundswell, but it's too small and weak to do anything with.

So, the honest truth? This is a pretty bleak outlook. The only real standouts are that Sunday the 2nd of August which is too big, and the morning of Monday the 3rd of August which is a bit of a gamble. There's a huge gap of nothing from the 4th through the 11th. It's a block of the calendar where you're better off tuning the board, cleaning the wetsuit, or finding a different hobby.

Keep the faith, though. It tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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