Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a window of surf, but it ain't all gonna be pretty. The first few days are a bit of a tease, with some decent swell but the wind is gonna be a constant headache. Then we get a proper clean-up and a couple of days that are worth calling in sick for, before it fades out into the long-range. Keep your expectations in check for the back half of the run.

First up, Drakes Estero is your only spot on the map. Water temp is sitting at 56°, which is close to normal for this time of year, so just grab the usual rubber.

The weekend kicks off with some cross-off wind and a building swell. Friday afternoon has 7ft of short-period WNW swell, but it’s a bit of a mess and the conditions are marginal. The energy is moderate at 640. Saturday stays in the same vein, more cross-off wind and a bit of a bump. The swell drops to 5ft in the morning, but then it jumps to 8ft by the afternoon, and that wind is howling at 25 mph, which is just gonna turn it into a washing machine. The energy is pushing 989. Not worth it. Saturday is a write-off.

Sunday is where things start to look up. The swell is still solid at 7ft in the morning with a better 9-second period. The wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-off, and it’s looking clean. The energy is up to 808. This is a good one. The afternoon adds a bit more size, 7ft, and the energy jumps to 970, but the breeze picks up to 19 mph, so the morning is your window. Monday morning has light onshore wind but the swell is still there at 6ft and the period is holding at 10 seconds. It’s a bit of a gamble, but the afternoon looks much better. The wind swings cross-off and light, and the waves are a clean 6ft. That’s another good window. These two days, Sunday morning and Monday afternoon, are your first real highlights.

Now, we hit a flat spell. From Tuesday the 4th through the 6th, the swell drops and the wind gets messy. Onshore and cross-onshore breezes are gonna chop up what little swell is left, and the energy is down in the 300-500 range. It’s poor, plain and simple. Don’t even bother.

Then the ocean wakes up again. On Thursday the 6th, the energy jumps to a big 1648 with 8ft of WNW swell on the afternoon. The period is still a solid 10 seconds. The wind is light and cross-shore, so it’s not perfect, but that’s a lot of water moving. Friday the 7th still has some good size, 6ft in the morning and 6ft in the afternoon, with light cross-shore winds. It looks pretty clean, but the score isn't as good as Thursday's. Still, it’s worth a paddle.

After that, it’s a slow taper. The swell drops back down to the 4ft – 6ft range, but the south winds come back onshore and kill the quality. the energy falls into the 500-800 range. It’s just not gonna be much fun. That run of poor conditions carries through to the end of the first week of August.

Moving into the long range, around the 12th of August, the direction shifts to the southwest, but the size just falls off a cliff. We’re talking about 2ft to 2ft of long-period but weak energy. Even though the period gets up to 18 seconds, there just isn’t any power behind it. The energy is down in the 300s. It’s not going to break properly, especially at a spot like this. It's not looking good for the second week, so don't get your hopes up.

If I had to call it, the standout is the Sunday morning session. It’s got the size, the clean wind, and the energy is solid. The Thursday afternoon pulse is also a big one, but that cross-shore wind is a bit of a spoiler. Both are worth the drive.

Alright, that’s the long and short of it. Get out there when it’s good, and save your energy for the rest.

Rusty.

Read more