Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 6 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 11 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,212 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 6 Aug, 2PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 06) at 2PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 11) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 2PM (Thu 6th Aug) | 1.5ft (0.5m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 8AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Tue 11th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk surf.
Water temp is about 54°F, which is normal for this time of year. No warm water here.
We're starting off flat. The first wave that's worth paddling for isn't until Sunday the 9th. Before that, it's all knee-high dribble with hardly any energy. Thursday morning's combined swell energy is just 191, which is weak.
So, the standout window opens Sunday morning, August 9th. A pulse of swell hits at 8ft from the NW. That’s a serious size, for experienced surfers only. The period is a short 9 seconds, so it'll be a bit messy. The wind is cross-off from the NW at 15 mph, which keeps it clean on the surface, and the combined energy is a strong 1658. This is a big-wave session.
Monday the 10th is the real winner. Swell drops to a still-chunky 6ft from the WNW, but with clean cross-off winds from the WNW at just 6 mph, the surface will be glassy perfection. The combined energy is 619, and the 9-second period means punchy, fun waves. This is the best session of the forecast. The afternoon holds at 5ft, but the wind picks up a bit.
Tuesday the 11th has 6ft from the WNW, but a cross-shore wind might mess with the face a little.
After that, it fades. Onshore winds kick in Wednesday, and by Thursday the 13th it's blown out and poor. The second week looks mostly small and inconsistent with poor conditions. Friday the 21st shows a hint of small, clean waves with a 16-second period, but only 2ft. That's a long-period groundswell – clean and lined up, but tiny. Longboard or foil territory.
To sum it up: Sunday the 9th is for the big-wave crew, but Monday the 10th morning is your best bet for the best quality, most fun waves. Get on it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Sun night, calm by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 16 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 84 | 84 | 81 | 85 | 181 | 133 | 204 | 202 | 680 | 891 | 632 | 943 | 469 | 339 | 1212 | 533 | 422 | 782 | 567 | 362 | 578 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 6:23PM1.79m | 9:12AM1.13m | 7:24PM1.84m | 10:25AM1.23m | 8:28PM1.90m | 11:17AM1.32m | 9:31PM1.96m | 12:01PM1.40m | 10:30PM1.99m | 12:41PM1.46m | 11:25PM1.98m | 1:19PM1.52m | 00:18AM1.93m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:12PM0.78m | 2:23AM0.11m | 1:27PM0.90m | 3:30AM-0.03m | 2:48PM0.94m | 4:30AM-0.16m | 3:59PM0.91m | 5:23AM-0.25m | 5:00PM0.83m | 6:10AM-0.30m | 5:56PM0.73m | 6:54AM-0.29m | 6:49PM0.62m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — |
 | — | 8:15 | — | — | 8:14 | — | — | 8:13 | — | — | 8:12 | — | — | 8:10 | — | — | 8:09 | — | — | 8:08 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 14 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 12 | WNW 5 | SW 19 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 16 | WNW 10 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 |
| kJ | 47 | 46 | 77 | 15 | 181 | 81 | 123 | 93 | 169 | 576 | 148 | 142 | 469 | 339 | 688 | 533 | 422 | 782 | 567 | 362 | 578 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | SW 12 | SSW 16 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 84 | 84 | 81 | 82 | 75 | 82 | 204 | 202 | 37 | 169 | 25 | 24 | 138 | 92 | 69 | 70 | 100 | 194 | 108 | 130 | 125 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 20 | W 12 | SW 18 | W 15 | SW 16 | SW 11 | SW 12 | S 9 | SW 12 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SSW 11 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 12 | SW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 60 | 60 | 12 | 85 | 17 | 133 | 31 | 35 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 72 | 12 | 60 | 97 | 94 | 113 | 28 | 42 | 67 | 27 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WNW 8 | — | WNW 7 | — | — | — | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | — | — | NW 9 | — | — | — | SSE 3 | SSE 3 | SSE 3 |
| kJ | — | — | 39 | — | 46 | — | — | — | 680 | 891 | 632 | 943 | — | — | 1212 | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 195 | 23 | 426 | 490 | 24 | 26 | 145 | 23 | 0 | 145 | 0 | 48 | 145 | 0 | 5 | 180 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)- Wind Speed (km/h)
Latest Updates
FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Drakes Estero surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
Nearest