Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Drakes Estero.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the next couple of days are pretty flat. Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th have some small swell but the conditions are just not coming together for a proper session. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year, so no nasty surprises there.

The first real chance to get wet comes Tuesday morning, the 14th. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the NW with a short 8-second period, so it’s a bit of a windswell. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, which will keep the surface clean. The combined energy is moderate (540). It’s a beginner-friendly spot, so if you’re just getting into it, this could be a fun little session. But don’t expect any world-class waves.

Wednesday morning the 15th is a bit of a letdown – same kind of wind but the swell drops a bit and the period is short. The afternoon kicks up a bit of size to 6ft, but the wind picks up to 19 mph, making it a bit of a battle. The energy is moderate (518).

Thursday the 16th sees the swell building to 8ft by the afternoon, with that short 7-second period. The wind is howling out of the WNW at 22 mph, so it’s going to be a messy, choppy affair. The combined energy (692) is moderate, but the conditions are just poor. This is more of a windsurfing or kiteboarding day than a paddle session.

Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th, the swell drops right off to 2ft to 3ft, but the period jumps up to 15-18 seconds – that’s a proper long-period groundswell. The problem is there’s just not enough height to do anything with it. The energy readings are still moderate (538-794), but you’re looking at tiny, infrequent waves. The wind stays cross-offshore, so it’s clean, but there’s next to nothing to ride.

Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st bring a little more size, back to 4ft-5ft with a short period again. The wind is moderate, so it’s rideable but nothing special. The energy is moderate (454-658).

Now, the standout for me is Wednesday the 22nd. The swell drops to 2ft, but it’s a long-period 16-second groundswell from the SW. The wind is a light 6 mph cross-offshore breeze, so it’s going to be glassy. The combined energy (349) is still moderate, so it’s not a big day, but for a clean, glassy session at Drakes Estero, this is your best bet. It’s the best quality on offer in the whole 16-day window.

After that, from Thursday the 23rd through to the end of the period on the 28th, the swell picks up again, hitting 5ft to 7ft with a mix of directions. The wind stays mostly cross-off or cross, but it gets strong, especially on the 28th with 28 mph winds. The combined energy gets strong (up to 1369), but the conditions are just poor. The 27th morning has a 7ft swell from the NW with a 9-second period and moderate wind – it’s the biggest, but it’s still a marginal call.

Overall, the 16-day window is a bit of a mixed bag. The best clean surf is on the 22nd, but it’s small. The bigger days are blown out. If you’re a beginner, Tuesday the 14th is your best bet for a safe, clean wave. For everyone else, keep an eye on the 22nd.

Rusty.

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