Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Issued: 4 pm 02 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.5° C

Normal for this time of year

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 7 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 11s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 8s period, WNW swell with 819 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 2 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 18s period with SSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 02) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 1.3m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)11PM (Thu 2nd Jul)2ft (0.6m) 18s
Best Surf 5AM (Tue 7th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 11s
Most Powerful 8PM (Thu 9th Jul)8ft (2.5m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Drakes Estero has on offer for the next couple of weeks. It's a bit of a slow burn, so don't expect firing waves right away.

We're looking at a pretty quiet start to the outlook. The first few days, Thursday the 2nd to Monday the 6th of July, are mostly a write-off for any decent surf. The swell is small, mostly under 3 feet, and the conditions are either onshore or just sloppy. There's weak wave energy for the most part. You'll want to give it a miss unless you're just keen for a paddle.

Then, things start to get a little more interesting, but it's still a waiting game. From Monday afternoon the 6th through to Sunday the 12th, we start seeing a push in the combined energy (moderate to strong). The problem here is that it's mostly a short-period, wind-driven WNW swell (around 7-9 seconds) which makes for a bit of a bumpy, wally wave. The wind is consistently cross-off from the NW, which is a positive for clean faces, but the swell quality just isn't there to make the most of it. On Wednesday afternoon the 8th, the swell bumps up to nearly 8 ft, but the period drops to a short 7 seconds – that's going to be a bit of a washing machine, even with clean wind. That one is one for experts only if you're brave.

The real standout window lands on the 15th and 17th of July. Wednesday the 15th is your best bet. The morning sees a 6 ft swell from the WNW at 8 seconds, with light cross-off winds. The combined energy is solid. By the afternoon, it builds to a solid 7 ft (strong energy), still with clean, gentle cross-off breezes. It's a decent-sized, workable swell for those who have their wits about them – it's not for beginners. The conditions look clean and the sets will have some push. The other highlight is on the 17th of July, Friday afternoon. The swell drops off to 3 ft but the period stretches out to a long 16 seconds from the west (strong energy). That's a proper groundswell, which at a beach/river mouth setup like Drakes Estero might break a bit too straight. But with gentle cross-off wind and that long period, the lines will be clean and lined up for the taking. That's a great option for a longboard or a fish.

Crowds can be an issue here sometimes, and for the 15th and 17th, I’d expect a few folks to be out given the quality.

Rusty, signing off.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri morning, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon morning, strong winds from the NW by Tue night).

Thu
2
Friday
3
Saturday
4
Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
1
2
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.2
WNW
9
0.6
SSW
18
1.2
WNW
8
0.7
SW
16
1.3
WNW
8
1.1
WNW
8
0.5
SW
19
1.1
WNW
8
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
1
WNW
9
0.8
SW
16
0.5
SW
21
1.6
WNW
11
0.6
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
2.3
WNW
7
0.9
SW
16
1.9
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
217
243
192
255
201
157
184
165
252
249
157
318
224
595
303
465
455
600
523
381
465
Wind (km/h)
10
W
10
SW
10
S
10
WNW
10
W
10
S
15
W
10
WSW
10
S
15
W
15
W
10
W
20
WNW
30
NW
20
WNW
35
NW
35
NW
30
NW
45
NW
35
NW
30
NW
Wind State
cross
cross-on
on
cross-off
cross
on
cross
cross-on
on
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
3:40PM1.33m
1:54AM1.61m
4:10PM1.36m
2:36AM1.51m
4:40PM1.41m
3:23AM1.39m
5:12PM1.48m
4:21AM1.25m
5:46PM1.55m
5:37AM1.12m
6:24PM1.64m
7:15AM1.04m
7:06PM1.73m
8:59AM1.06m
Low Tide
8:48PM0.87m
9:27AM-0.14m
9:34PM0.83m
10:00AM-0.06m
10:27PM0.77m
10:35AM0.05m
11:29PM0.67m
11:14AM0.20m
00:36AM0.54m
11:57AM0.37m
1:44AM0.37m
12:48PM0.55m
2:48AM0.17m
1:48PM0.71m
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:52
5:54
5:54
5:54
5:54
5:56
5:56
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:36
 mm
Temp °C
13
11
14
13
11
13
13
11
13
13
11
12
13
11
12
12
12
12
14
13
13
Feels °C
12
8
13
12
8
11
11
9
11
12
9
10
10
6
9
7
5
6
6
5
7
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.2
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
8
1.2
WNW
8
1.1
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1.1
WNW
8
1.2
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
9
1.1
WNW
8
0.8
WNW
12
0.7
SW
20
0.7
WNW
11
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
1
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SSW
16
Energy kJ
217
243
192
169
192
157
136
165
188
143
157
177
158
388
99
465
455
600
521
381
458
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
SW
15
0.7
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.5
SW
14
0.6
SSW
14
0.6
SSW
14
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.5
SW
18
0.8
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
19
0.5
SW
15
0.5
SW
15
0.4
SSW
19
0.4
SW
13
Energy kJ
181
207
171
255
201
102
140
140
252
249
152
318
206
206
303
104
104
124
46
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.2
S
11
0.4
SW
15
0.2
S
11
0.2
W
15
0.2
W
14
0.3
W
14
0.5
SW
19
0.4
SW
19
0.4
WNW
12
0.5
WNW
13
0.5
SW
13
0.5
WNW
12
0.5
SW
21
0.2
SSW
12
0.6
SW
16
0.1
S
8
0.2
SSW
11
Energy kJ
10
75
9
17
16
33
184
96
50
96
85
83
224
14
198
1
12
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
11
1.3
WNW
8
2
WNW
7
2
WNW
7
1.6
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
7
1.9
WNW
7
1.9
WNW
8
Energy kJ
125
595
183
342
363
277
523
335
465
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
3
3
2
2
3
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
4
2
1
3
1
2
3
3
Distance (km)
215
5
5
0
23
5
145
37
5
145
48
426
145
32
48
145
59
145
144
133
48
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
2
3
2
1
2
2
3
Best forecast wave conditions in United States
Rating
(10 max)
3
4
2
2
4
2
1
3
2
2
3
2
2
4
2
2
4
3
2
4
3
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
9
5
9
5
6
8
5
9
7
5
9
9
8
6
5
9
9
9
5
5
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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