Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 5 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 10 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,083 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 5 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 18s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 8AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Sun 5th Jul) | 2ft (0.6m) 18s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Wed 8th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8AM (Fri 10th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk swell in feet and miles, how we like it.
Right out the gate, we've got a quiet spell, so don't rush down. The first usable surf shows up on Monday the 6th. It's not much, but things are building. The only spot on the menu is Drakes Estero, a beach and river mouth that’s wide open to the SW swell. Water temp’s sitting at a normal 55° for this time of year, so springsuit weather.
Monday the 6th brings in little 2-3ft lines from the SW with a long 16-second period. The energy is moderate (534), but it’s cross-onshore, so a bit lumpy. By Tuesday afternoon the 7th we get cleaner with an offshore breeze, but the swell is still tiny at around 3ft. The real kicker is Wednesday the 8th. We’ve got a clean 3ft SW groundswell with a long 18-second period and the combined energy jumps to 1402. The wind is light offshore, so those lines will hold up nicely. That’s your first standout session of the run – Wednesday morning.
Now, Thursday the 9th to Saturday the 11th, things get big. We’re talking 6ft to 8ft of wind swell, but the period drops to a short 8 seconds. That’s a lot of chop and grunt, with energy readings up to 1682. Over 8ft on a short-period beach break is expert territory – not a beginner’s game. The wind is strong offshore, so the surface might be clean, but it will be heavy and demanding.
Then, just when you think it’s all chaos, Sunday morning the 12th delivers. 5-6ft of clean WNW swell with light 6 mph offshore breeze. The energy is moderate (523), but the quality is high. This is the second true standout: calm, clean, decent size. For the rest of the second week, the swell drops back. Around the 14th to the 16th we see some clean 4ft to 6ft groundswell days, particularly Thursday morning the 16th, which has a nice 1.8m (6ft) of clean WNW swell, light offshore wind, and good energy (952). After that, we’re into smaller 2-3ft westerly groundswells running on long 15-17 second periods, perfect for a longboard but not a blower.
To boil it down: Wednesday the 8th and Sunday the 12th are your best shots for clean waves with a bit of punch. The big windy stuff mid-week is for the experienced crew only. Crowds at Drakes are possible, so go early on the good days.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun morning, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Sun morning, strong winds from the NW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Wed morning). Mainly strong winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 252 | 249 | 152 | 318 | 224 | 455 | 384 | 465 | 455 | 600 | 521 | 735 | 704 | 829 | 807 | 905 | 667 | 683 | 422 | 560 | 493 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:12PM1.48m | 4:21AM1.25m | 5:46PM1.55m | 5:37AM1.12m | 6:24PM1.64m | 7:15AM1.04m | 7:06PM1.73m | 8:59AM1.06m | 7:54PM1.83m | 10:24AM1.15m | 8:45PM1.92m | 11:29AM1.25m | 9:40PM1.99m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:35AM0.05m | 11:29PM0.67m | 11:14AM0.20m | 00:36AM0.54m | 11:57AM0.37m | 1:44AM0.37m | 12:48PM0.55m | 2:48AM0.17m | 1:48PM0.71m | 3:48AM-0.02m | 2:53PM0.83m | 4:42AM-0.20m | 3:58PM0.88m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — |
 | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 16 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WNW 9 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 112 | 100 | 103 | 103 | 206 | 455 | 384 | 465 | 455 | 600 | 521 | 381 | 381 | 376 | 291 | 486 | 232 | 217 | 217 | 220 | 188 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WNW 12 | WNW 11 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SSW 19 | SW 14 | — | — | — | SW 16 | S 11 | — | — | W 18 | W 16 |
| kJ | 252 | 249 | 152 | 318 | 125 | 109 | 198 | 104 | 104 | 510 | 124 | 46 | — | — | — | 291 | 2 | — | — | 6 | 5 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 12 | W 13 | SW 13 | WNW 12 | SW 21 | SW 16 | WNW 11 | S 8 | SSW 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 18 | W 20 |
| kJ | 50 | 86 | 85 | 113 | 224 | 206 | 101 | 5 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 8 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 6 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 125 | 175 | 161 | 332 | 324 | 292 | 519 | 735 | 704 | 829 | 807 | 905 | 667 | 683 | 422 | 560 | 493 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 48 | 145 | 0 | 48 | 145 | 32 | 145 | 144 | 32 | 32 | 145 | 48 | 48 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 145 | 26 | 26 | 623 | 23 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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