Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Drakes Estero.

To be honest, the next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, inconsistent waves with a lot of wind on them. The first proper surfable window doesn't really show up until the morning of Friday the 18th of July, and even then it’s not a standout. There’s a big gap of nothing recommended before that. The real highlight, the one that’s got my attention, is the morning of Wednesday the 29th of July. That’s the one to circle on the calendar.

Water temp at Drakes Estero is sitting at 57°, which is bang on normal for this time of year, so don’t expect any surprises when you jump in.

Let’s break it down. The first morning with anything on offer is Friday the 18th of July. A clean, cross-off breeze from the WNW is blowing at 6 mph, with a 2ft swell from the W, but the period is a juicy 16 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, which means better shaped waves and more energy – the combined energy sitting at 575 (moderate). The afternoon picks up a little with a 2ft swell from the SW, even longer period at 18 seconds, and energy jumps to 707 (moderate). The wind stays cross-off, so it’s clean. It’s small, but it’s quality.

Sunday the 19th of July is a write-off. Light cross-shore winds and a tiny 2ft to 3ft swell with no real push. The energy is still moderate, but the wind is a light cross-shore, so it’s just messy. Not worth paddling out.

Monday the 20th of July has a moment early. The morning is glassy – a 3 mph wind from the SSW, flat calm, with a 2ft, 16-second swell from the SW. Energy at 491 (moderate). That’s a small but clean session if you’re desperate for a splash. The afternoon turns cross-shore on you.

From Tuesday the 21st of July through to Friday the 1st of August, the story is the same: small surf, 2ft to 5ft, mostly from the SW, with periods that are all over the shop. The wind is a constant problem. It’s either cross-on, onshore, or a fresh cross-off breeze that’s too strong for the small waves. The combined energy does get into the 900s and even 1000s (strong) on the 26th, 27th, and 28th of July, but the wind is a fresh breeze, spoiling it. The Thursday the 30th of July morning has a 6ft, 9-second swell from the WNW with a gentle cross-off, energy at 866 (moderate), and it’s described as “very good” – that’s worth a mention for a quick look.

But the standout? The morning of Wednesday the 29th of July. The waves are going to push up to 7ft from the NW, with a short period of 8 seconds. The wind is a gentle cross-off from the WNW at 9 mph, keeping it clean. The combined energy is strong at 1642. This is a proper swell for experienced surfers only – that 7ft with a short period is going to be punchy and powerful at a beach/river mouth setup. It’s the only day in the whole forecast that’s flagged as “excellent” for the crew that can handle it. Beginners should sit this one out.

If you’re looking for a fun, clean wave in the second week, the morning of the 30th of July is your backup. 6ft from the WNW, 9-second period, gentle cross-off breeze, and energy at 866 (moderate). It’s a solid option for a less heavy session.

Overall, it’s a lean run. The consistent offshore winds we want just aren’t lining up with the swell. The 29th of July morning is the only real standout. The rest is small, wind-affected, or just not worth the hassle. That’s the way it goes sometimes. Forecasts can change, but for now, that’s the call.

Rusty.

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