Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 4 pm 29 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
14.3° C
0.5° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 30 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 10s period, NW swell with 2,026 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 10s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)11PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Best Surf11PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Most Powerful 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug)11ft (3.5m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Right, plug in yer ears, this is Rusty, and we’re lookin’ at a mixed bag for Drakes Estero over the next couple weeks. The water temp is sittin' about average for this time of year at 58°, so nothin' wild on that front.

First up, we’ve got a bit of a rough start. Wednesday the 29th of July kicks off with some crankin’ 8ft cross-off swell from the WNW, period a short 8 seconds, and a solid 1742 (moderate energy) backing it. But with the wind howlin' at 28 mph from the NW, it’s gonna be choppy and pretty much a write-off for a decent paddle. The whole first week is a bit of a slog, honestly. Thursday the 30th flakes out with a small 3ft SSW groundswell (16-second period) in the morning that gets swallowed by a windy 8ft afternoon. Friday through Sunday is a constant battle of cross-off winds and waves that peak over 8ft, which puts it into just-for-experts territory, but the wind just wrecks it. The energy values are high (over 1000 at times), but the quality is poor. If you’re lookin’ at that 10ft on Saturday the 1st of August afternoon with 31 mph winds, that’s pure kite-surfing stuff, not for a paddle board.

There’s a little light at the end of the tunnel, though. The standout window is Monday the 3rd of August morning. The wind goes glassy, dead calm from the SW at 3 mph, and the swell is a solid 6ft from the WNW with a nice long 10-second period. The energy is moderate at 796, but the “very good” surf conditions tag says it all. That morning will be clean, lined-up, and proper fun for a confident surfer. The afternoon holds clean too with a light 9 mph cross-off, but the morning glass is the real magic moment.

Then we drop into a pretty ordinary run. From Tuesday the 4th through to Wednesday the 6th, the wind shifts onshore and the waves drop off to under 4ft. Not worth paddling out for.

The second week finally serves up another highlight. On Saturday the 8th of August morning, we get a really nice 6ft WNW groundswell with a period stretched out to 11 seconds, clean cross-off winds, and the highest score in the whole outlook. The combined energy is 1018 (moderate), but it’s flagged as “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That morning is the best of the second week by a long way, with solid, clean waves. The following days stay in the 5ft to 6ft range but the winds get a bit messy, so Saturday is the day to target.

After that, it fades away. By the 11th and 12th of August, some long-period SW groundswell rolls in (17 to 19 seconds), but it’s tiny, less than 3ft, and the period is so long it’ll be tricky on this beach/river setup. A bit of clean swell on the 12th afternoon at 3ft, but it’s just a longboard wave at best. If you’re after any sort of proper wave, the 3rd and the 8th of August are your days. Everything else is a fight with the wind or the tide.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat morning, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Wed afternoon, moderate winds from the NW by Thu night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue morning, min 12°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sat afternoon, calm by Mon morning).

Wed
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
1
1
2
2
0
1
1
0
1
3
2
!
3
3
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
0.9
SSW
16
2.3
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
0.9
SSW
14
2.1
WNW
7
2
WNW
7
1.7
WNW
8
3
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
9
2.5
NW
9
2.5
WNW
9
3.5
NW
10
1.9
WNW
10
1.7
WNW
10
1.6
WNW
10
1.3
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1
WNW
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
843
519
436
600
392
293
428
418
381
1259
1084
1202
1060
2026
711
544
470
292
228
208
Wind (km/h)
45
NW
35
NW
25
NW
35
NW
25
NW
25
NW
35
NW
30
NW
25
NW
50
NW
35
NW
25
NW
35
NW
30
NW
5
SW
15
WNW
10
SSE
15
SSE
10
S
15
SSE
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
on
on
on
cross-on
High Tide
00:25AM1.74m
2:22PM1.39m
1:03AM1.69m
2:48PM1.44m
1:43AM1.61m
3:14PM1.49m
2:27AM1.51m
3:42PM1.55m
3:17AM1.37m
4:12PM1.62m
4:19AM1.23m
4:48PM1.68m
Low Tide
7:11PM0.82m
7:54AM-0.12m
7:47PM0.77m
8:23AM-0.09m
8:26PM0.70m
8:52AM-0.02m
9:09PM0.63m
9:23AM0.09m
9:58PM0.55m
9:56AM0.25m
10:54PM0.46m
10:32AM0.43m
11:58PM0.36m
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:11
6:13
6:13
6:15
6:16
6:16
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:23
8:22
8:22
8:21
8:20
8:19
8:17
 mm
Temp °C
15
14
14
15
14
15
15
14
16
16
15
15
15
14
16
16
13
17
17
15
Feels °C
7
6
10
8
6
11
10
7
12
10
7
11
10
8
16
15
11
15
16
14
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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