Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 24 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 31 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 27 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 19s period, SW swell with 911 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 2AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.1m 19s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 5PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 8PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 2AM (Fri 31st Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 2AM (Fri 31st Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 5PM (Mon 27th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, let’s talk surf for Drakes Estero. The next couple of weeks are looking like a real grind. We’ve got north-west winds blowing cross-offshore almost every day, which keeps the surface looking tidy, but the swell is just small and weak. Lots of days where you’re scratching for a half-decent wave. The water is running about 59°, which is a little warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s a welcome change.
Your first real chance to grab something worthwhile is the morning of Saturday, August 1st. We’ve got a south-southwest swell rolling in at 4ft, with a 14-second period – that’s proper long-period groundswell. The energy is moderate, and with a gentle cross-offshore breeze, the waves should be clean and have a bit of shape. For a beginner-friendly spot that can get a touch crowded, this is the pick of the bunch.
But if you want the absolute best conditions, look at the morning of Thursday, July 31st. The swell is only 3ft from the south-southwest with a 14-second period, but the wind is a glassy 5 km/h cross-shore from the west. The surface will be like glass. The energy is moderate, so it’s not a heavy session, but for clean, long-period lines on a river mouth setup, it could be really special. This one’s close-in, so it’s a solid call.
After that, it gets rough. From Sunday, August 2nd through to Wednesday, August 6th, the swell builds and swings more west-northwest, but the period drops to a horrible 8 to 9 seconds. The winds stay strong and the energy gets heavy (over 1000), but it’s short-period, wind-blown junk. By Wednesday, August 5th afternoon, the swell hits 10ft – that’s expert territory and too big for this break, especially with 40 km/h winds. Same for Thursday, August 6th afternoon: 10ft swell with straight onshore wind. It’ll be a mess, more for kites than paddle boards.
Into Friday, August 7th and the second weekend (August 8th), the swell drops to a friendlier 5 to 6ft with a better 9 to 10-second period, but the winds go light and variable to light onshore. Still, it’s mostly marginal. Nothing to write home about.
So, bottom line: hit the morning of Thursday, July 31st for glassy conditions, or the morning of Saturday, August 1st for the most consistent, rideable swell. The rest is a mix of too small, too windy, or just plain too big. Manage your expectations.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 12°C on Sun night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Tue afternoon, moderate winds from the NW by Wed morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 448 | 661 | 389 | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 614 | 442 | 621 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 560 | 527 | 617 | 471 | 527 | 372 | 390 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:01AM1.21m | 8:56PM1.70m | 11:50AM1.27m | 9:43PM1.72m | 12:28PM1.31m | 10:26PM1.75m | 1:00PM1.33m | 11:07PM1.76m | 1:30PM1.34m | 11:46PM1.76m | 1:56PM1.36m | 00:25AM1.74m | 2:22PM1.39m | 1:03AM1.69m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:34PM0.94m | 5:01AM0.03m | 4:29PM0.95m | 5:42AM-0.03m | 5:16PM0.94m | 6:19AM-0.08m | 5:57PM0.91m | 6:53AM-0.11m | 6:34PM0.87m | 7:24AM-0.12m | 7:11PM0.82m | 7:54AM-0.12m | 7:47PM0.77m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | — | 8:28 | — | — | 8:27 | — | — | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:22 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | WNW 8 | SSW 15 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | 249 | 201 | 173 | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 614 | 442 | 621 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 560 | 527 | 617 | 441 | 323 | 367 | 390 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 21 | SSW 11 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SW 9 | SSW 16 | SW 15 | SSW 15 |
| kJ | 448 | 661 | 389 | 113 | 57 | 56 | 35 | 35 | 162 | 40 | 54 | 89 | 35 | 35 | 32 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 436 | 181 | 305 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | SSW 11 | SW 14 | — | SSW 12 | S 10 | — | SW 11 | SW 11 | SSW 11 | SSE 16 | SW 8 | SSE 15 | SW 14 |
| kJ | 46 | 43 | 25 | 25 | 37 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 40 | 30 | — | 56 | 2 | — | 32 | 29 | 11 | 25 | 3 | 76 | 169 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | NW 7 | WNW 7 | NW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | — |
| kJ | 52 | 138 | 97 | 46 | 106 | 119 | 62 | 216 | 196 | 160 | 392 | 440 | 244 | 666 | 382 | 327 | 532 | 471 | 527 | 372 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 48 | 144 | 59 | 48 | 144 | 32 | 48 | 144 | 59 | 48 | 144 | 133 | 48 | 144 | 48 | 26 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 461 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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