Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Issued: 4 pm 06 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.6° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 7 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with 1,233 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Best Surf 8PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Most Powerful 8PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Drakes Estero. Gotta be honest, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, and we’ve got a long stretch of nothing special to get through before any real hope shows up.

Right now, the outlook starts off pretty flat and unexciting. Monday the 6th has a tiny 2ft swell from the SW, but it’s a decent 21-second period groundswell, so there’s a bit of energy in the water (655). The wind is a moderate cross-off, so it’s clean, but it’s only really a beginner wave. The water is sitting at 57°, which is about average for the time of year. That’s about as good as it gets for the first week, I’m afraid.

From Tuesday the 7th right through to Sunday the 13th, we’re looking at a real grind. The swell bumps up a bit, especially Wednesday afternoon the 8th when we see a 8ft WNW swell, but the period drops to a short, weak 7 seconds. The wind is a fresh to strong cross-off, which keeps it clean, but the wave quality is pretty poor. The combined energy readings are decent (between 849 and 1279), but the short-period windswell just won’t hold shape. It’s going to be lumpy and messy. Anything over 8ft on Thursday the 9th afternoon is heading into expert-only territory, and with that cross-off wind, it’ll be a battle. Honestly, for a beach/river setup, this looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Things go downhill into the second week. From Monday the 14th through to Thursday the 17th morning, the swell is dropping, the period is tiny (6-7 seconds), and the wind is howling. The score is a flat zero – poor surf conditions. It’s a real blank run. But don’t lose hope just yet.

The first real standout comes on Friday the 17th. The afternoon session shows a 7ft WNW swell with a 8-second period, and the wind drops to a light 9 mph cross-off from the WNW. That’s a clean setup. The combined energy is a solid 948, and the guidance says to expect very good surf conditions. This is the one to circle for the second week; it’s got size and shape.

Then, for the long-range punters, keep an eye on Sunday the 19th afternoon. The swell drops to 2ft, but it’s a pure 17-second SW groundswell. The wind is light and cross-off. It’s a small wave, but with that long period, it’ll be glassy and lined up. The energy is 507 – not huge, but the quality will be there. The best of the small stuff.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a washout. The best on offer is Friday the 17th afternoon for some solid, clean waves, and maybe a sneaky glassy small-wave session on Sunday the 19th afternoon.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Wed night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Thu night, light winds from the NW by Sat morning).

Mon
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
1
1
2
1
1
1
0
1
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
SW
21
0.7
SW
20
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
2.3
WNW
7
2.2
WNW
8
1.9
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
9
1.8
WNW
9
2.1
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
7
2.1
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
224
388
384
465
455
600
559
666
512
903
954
464
545
559
292
584
572
402
616
488
336
Wind (km/h)
20
WNW
30
NW
25
NW
35
WNW
35
NW
30
NW
40
WNW
35
NW
30
NW
40
NW
35
NW
20
NW
35
NW
30
NW
20
NW
30
NW
30
NW
30
NW
40
NW
35
NW
30
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
5:46PM1.55m
5:37AM1.12m
6:24PM1.64m
7:15AM1.04m
7:06PM1.73m
8:59AM1.06m
7:54PM1.83m
10:24AM1.15m
8:45PM1.92m
11:29AM1.25m
9:40PM1.99m
12:22PM1.33m
10:35PM2.05m
1:09PM1.40m
Low Tide
00:36AM0.54m
11:57AM0.37m
1:44AM0.37m
12:48PM0.55m
2:48AM0.17m
1:48PM0.71m
3:48AM-0.02m
2:53PM0.83m
4:42AM-0.20m
3:58PM0.88m
5:35AM-0.33m
5:00PM0.88m
6:25AM-0.42m
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:54
5:56
5:56
5:56
5:58
5:58
5:58
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:36
8:36
8:36
8:35
8:35
 mm
Temp °C
12
12
13
12
12
13
13
12
14
13
12
14
13
13
14
15
14
15
15
14
14
Feels °C
10
7
9
6
5
8
7
4
8
6
4
10
9
6
11
10
7
10
9
7
9
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.7
WNW
12
0.7
SW
20
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
1
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.6
SW
15
0.7
SW
14
0.7
SW
14
0.6
SSW
14
0.6
SSW
14
Energy kJ
125
388
384
465
455
600
521
381
437
376
291
291
236
217
217
220
186
206
211
136
121
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SW
16
0.7
WNW
11
0.6
SW
16
0.5
SW
15
0.5
SW
15
0.4
SSW
19
0.4
SW
14
0.8
SW
16
0.1
S
21
0.1
W
18
0.1
W
16
0.2
W
18
0.1
W
18
0.2
W
16
0.2
W
16
Energy kJ
206
111
198
104
104
124
46
291
9
6
5
24
6
19
20
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
SW
21
0.6
SW
16
0.7
WNW
11
0.2
S
8
0.2
SSW
11
0.1
W
18
0.1
W
15
0.1
SW
21
0.1
SW
21
Energy kJ
224
206
103
5
12
6
4
18
18
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
7
1.3
WNW
7
1.9
WNW
6
1.9
WNW
7
1.7
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
7
2.2
WNW
8
1.9
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
9
1.8
WNW
9
2.1
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
7
2.1
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
Energy kJ
100
186
164
295
332
319
559
666
512
903
954
464
545
559
292
584
572
402
616
488
336
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
1
3
1
2
3
3
2
2
3
2
4
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
Distance (km)
145
32
145
145
59
48
144
48
48
145
32
32
145
32
32
144
48
26
144
48
145
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
3
2
2
2
2
3
2
Best forecast wave conditions in United States
Rating
(10 max)
2
4
2
2
4
3
2
4
3
3
4
3
2
4
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
7
5
7
9
8
9
7
7
6
7
5
5
5
5
5
5
9
9
7
5
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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