Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 am 27 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
14.9° C
1.2° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 28 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,891 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 13s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 19s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)11PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Best Surf11PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Most Powerful 5AM (Mon 3rd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the plate for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we've got a solid, long-period groundswell rolling in from the southwest. But don't get too excited just yet. The wind is a stubborn cross-offshore breeze, and while it's keeping the surf clean, it's also a bit on the strong side, making things a little bumpy and difficult. The water temperature is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might not need the thickest of wetsuits.

This first week is a bit of a mixed bag. Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th are seeing a 4ft southwest swell with a very long period of 18 to 19 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (746) and ramping up. The problem is that northwest wind is howling at 19 to 25 mph. It's "clean" in the sense of no rain, but it's working against the quality of the wave. Not ideal, but surfable for the determined.

Wednesday the 29th morning settles a bit with a 12 mph wind, and the swell is still 4ft, but the period drops to 16 seconds. The energy is still moderate (962). The afternoon is a weird one – the swell jumps to 8ft, but the period plummets to a short 8 seconds, and the wind is back up to 25 mph. That's a messy mix of wind chop and a weak, short-period swell. Not great.

Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st are similar stories. We're looking at a mix of a smaller, longer-period swell and a larger, short-period (8 seconds) windswell from the WNW. The wind stays moderate to fresh and cross-off. The energy is moderate to strong (values between 764 and 1312). The waves will be there, but they'll be lumpy and hard to read.

The best chance for a decent session in the whole window looks like it might be Sunday, August 2nd. The swell is building to 10ft with a 9-second period from the WNW. The wind is a much kinder 19 mph in the afternoon. The combined energy is extremely high (1535). But here's the catch – the forecast itself says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. At 10ft, this is strictly for experts only, and the beach/river mouth setup could get pretty wild and dangerous. For the average surfer, this is a "watch from the shore" kind of day.

The following Monday, August 3rd, has a moment of promise. The wind swings around to the south-southwest at just 3 mph, which is glassy and offshore. The swell is 6ft from the WNW with a 10-second period. The energy is moderate (782). This could be your best window for a clean, lined-up wave if you're an experienced surfer, but it's still a solid size.

After that, the whole forecast goes flat and quiet. From Tuesday the 4th through to the end of the outlook on Tuesday the 11th, it's a long stretch of small, weak, wind-affected swell. The waves simply aren't worth the paddle. The energy drops down to low, three-digit numbers (352 to 525), and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore a lot of the time. There's a tiny bump on the 6th and 8th with a 2ft, 19-second period south-southwest groundswell, but it's too small and weak to do anything with.

So, the honest truth? This is a pretty bleak outlook. The only real standouts are that Sunday the 2nd of August which is too big, and the morning of Monday the 3rd of August which is a bit of a gamble. There's a huge gap of nothing from the 4th through the 11th. It's a block of the calendar where you're better off tuning the board, cleaning the wetsuit, or finding a different hobby.

Keep the faith, though. It tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 13°C on Mon morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Mon night, light winds from the NNW by Wed morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat afternoon, min 13°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Fri morning, strong winds from the NW by Sat afternoon).

Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
0
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
0
1
3
!
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
SW
18
1.1
SW
19
0.9
SW
19
1.1
SW
18
1.1
SW
18
1.1
SW
17
1.1
SW
16
2.5
WNW
8
2.2
WNW
8
0.9
SSW
16
2.5
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
1.9
WNW
8
2.1
NW
8
2.5
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
9
2.3
WNW
9
3
WNW
9
2.5
WNW
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
702
911
518
679
781
663
617
709
620
422
799
500
361
441
447
604
919
1056
883
1399
1205
Wind (km/h)
30
NW
40
WNW
35
NW
30
NW
40
NW
35
NW
20
NW
40
NW
30
NW
25
NW
35
NW
25
NW
20
NW
35
NW
30
NW
30
NW
50
NW
40
NW
20
NW
30
NW
20
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
1:00PM1.33m
11:07PM1.76m
1:30PM1.34m
11:46PM1.76m
1:56PM1.36m
00:25AM1.74m
2:22PM1.39m
1:03AM1.69m
2:48PM1.44m
1:43AM1.61m
3:14PM1.49m
2:27AM1.51m
3:42PM1.55m
3:17AM1.37m
Low Tide
5:57PM0.91m
6:53AM-0.11m
6:34PM0.87m
7:24AM-0.12m
7:11PM0.82m
7:54AM-0.12m
7:47PM0.77m
8:23AM-0.09m
8:26PM0.70m
8:52AM-0.02m
9:09PM0.63m
9:23AM0.09m
9:58PM0.55m
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:09
6:11
6:11
6:11
6:13
6:13
6:15
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:24
8:23
8:23
8:22
8:22
8:21
8:20
 mm
Temp °C
15
15
15
15
16
15
15
15
14
15
15
14
16
15
14
16
17
15
15
15
14
Feels °C
10
10
7
10
10
7
12
9
6
10
9
6
12
10
7
11
11
7
12
10
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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