Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good, long look at what’s coming our way. We’re in for a bit of a slow start, so don’t rush to wax up just yet. The first real chance of a wave doesn’t show up until Saturday the 18th, leaving a bit of a gap at the beginning of the period. After that, it’s a mixed bag of small, clean conditions and some proper long-period groundswells that could get interesting.

The opening action on Saturday the 18th is small but promising. We’re looking at a 2ft swell out of the W, but the period is a juicy 16 seconds, which means real groundswell energy. The combined energy sits at 579 (moderate, don’t let the small height fool you). The wind is a gentle cross-off, so things will be clean. The water temp is about average for the time of year, which is fine by me. This is a decent window for a beginner-friendly spot like Drakes Estero, but don’t expect big rides.

Sunday the 19th morning is actually a standout for the early part of the forecast. The swell holds at 2ft from the SW, but the period stretches to 17 seconds, with a combined energy of 625. The wind drops to a light breeze, giving you glassy, clean conditions. This is as good as it gets for a small-wave session. It’s a river/biera setup, so that long period will wrap in nicely. This is the pick of the first week, but the size keeps it mellow.

Monday the 20th morning is another clean slot. A 4ft SSW swell with a 14-second period and light cross-off wind. Energy’s up to 730. The waves will have a bit more push than the weekend, but it’s still very manageable.

Now, looking further out, things get more interesting but less certain. Friday the 24th morning brings a very long-period groundswell – 2ft from the SW, but with a massive 24-second period. That’s a very long-period wave, and the combined energy jumps to 1017 (strong). That much period means the swell will be super clean and lined up, but at this spot, it might break a bit straight on the beach setup. Still, for experienced surfers, this is a quality rare event. Winds are light and cross-off. This is a stand-out for the second week.

Then Saturday the 25th morning builds on that. We see 5ft from the SSW, period 15 seconds, and a combined energy of 1666 (very strong). Again, light cross-off wind. This is the biggest, most powerful swell of the entire forecast, but 5ft is still fine for a good surfer. The combination of strong energy and a clean wind makes this the best on offer overall, though it’s a long-range call, so keep your fingers crossed.

After that, Sunday the 26th afternoon looks messy. The swell jumps to 8ft from the WNW, but the period drops to just 8 seconds, and the wind is a fresh cross-off. The energy is strong at 1537, but that short-period, wind-affected swell will be a bit of a washing machine. At Drakes Estero, a beach/river setup with that much short-period swell and strong wind, honestly, this setup starts looking more fun for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The rest of the final week tails off again with smaller, onshore-influenced conditions and lower energy. Keep your eyes on that window from Friday the 24th through Saturday the 25th for the real quality, if it holds.

Rusty.

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