Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Drakes Estero has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, don't get too excited for the first few days. Thursday afternoon through Saturday is a bit of a write-off. We've got a solid 8ft to 8ft WNW swell, but the wind is howling out of the NW at 22 mph. It's cross-off, but with that much breeze, it's just not going to be that clean. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that's a small win.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Sunday the 12th. The morning session is looking like the pick of the early run. The swell drops to a more manageable 5ft from the WNW, but the big news is the wind – it's a light WNW breeze at only 6 mph. That's going to keep things glassy and clean. The wave energy is moderate (622), and the 9-second period will give the waves a bit of shape. It's not a huge day, but for a clean, fun surf, that's your window.

Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th are just okay. The swell hangs around 6ft to 7ft, but the wind picks up again, keeping things from being truly special. The energy is moderate (614-893), but nothing to write home about.

Now, hold on to your boards for Wednesday the 15th. The afternoon session is a monster. We're looking at a 10ft swell from the WNW with a 9-second period. The combined energy is a massive 1619, which is strong. But here's the catch – that's too big for this break. The data straight up says it's predicted to be too big. This is for experts only, and even then, it's going to be a handful. The wind is a strong 25 mph NW breeze, so it's going to be a wild, windy, and heavy day. Not a beginner's spot, and honestly, more of a "watch from the beach" kind of day.

After that, things drop right off. From Friday the 17th through to Tuesday the 22nd, we're in a flat spell. The swell drops to 2ft to 3ft. Sure, the period gets long (16-18 seconds), but with that little height, it's just not going to break properly. The wind is light, but it doesn't matter when there's no push. You'll be bobbing around more than surfing.

We finally see a pulse of life return later in the week. On Thursday the 23rd, the swell is back up to 7ft from the WNW, but the wind is light and variable from the S and SW. Not ideal.

But the real standout of the whole forecast? That's Friday the 24th of July. The afternoon session is where it's at. The swell is a solid 8ft from the WNW with a 9-second period, and the wind is a gentle WNW breeze at 9 mph. The energy is strong (1083), and the conditions are clean. The data says it's "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That's the one to circle on your calendar. The crowd factor is "sometimes," so you might have some company, but with waves like that, it'll be worth it. This is a swell that's big enough to be fun but not so big it's closed out, and with clean wind, Drakes Estero should be firing. This is the best on offer, no question.

So, to sum it up: you've got a clean, smaller window on Sunday the 12th morning, a massive, dangerous swell on Wednesday the 15th afternoon, and then a long flat spell until the real gem on Friday the 24th afternoon. Be patient.

Rusty.

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