Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break down what’s going on at Drakes Estero over the next couple weeks. It’s a beach and river mouth setup, exposed to that SW direction. Water temp’s about 55°F, which is average for this time of year, nothing wild.

First decent surf shows up Saturday afternoon, July 4th. We’re looking at clean waves, 2ft from the SW. Wind is a light cross-off, so it’ll be glassy. The combined energy is moderate (457). Not a huge day, but for a beginner-friendly spot, this is a nice, easy start.

Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th get blown out a bit with onshore and side winds, making things choppy or just so-so. The swell bumps to 2ft, but the quality goes down.

Tuesday morning, July 7th, is where it gets better. A 4ft WNW swell rolls in, clean under a cross-off breeze. The combined energy jumps to moderate-strong (1022). That’s a solid step up. Not huge, but the wave shape should be better. Tuesday afternoon stays clean but drops back to 3ft.

Wednesday the 8th holds around 3ft SW swell, clean again, and the energy is really up there (1402) – a strong pulse. Wind stays cross-off, so the surface is good.

Now, Thursday, July 9th. This is the big one. Thursday morning we see a 7ft WNW swell, but it’s short period (8 seconds), with strong energy (919). The afternoon gets serious: 10ft from the WNW. That’s proper heavy. The wind is a strong cross-off, keeping it clean, but the combined wave energy hits 1635 – that’s very strong. At over 8ft, this is expert-only territory. For experienced surfers only, and that short period might make it a bit messy. Beginners, stay out of the water. The size and power is the main event, but it’s not a friendly wave.

Friday the 10th backs off a bit but still has 6-7ft in the morning, with strong energy. Wind stays cross-off. Still clean, still heavy.

Saturday the 11th has onshore wind in the morning, messing up the 6ft swell. The afternoon gets better with a light side wind, but the swell is 8ft – still for experienced folks only.

Sunday the 12th is similar, with 7-8ft WNW swell and a cross-off breeze, but the energy starts fading. Monday the 13th goes downhill fast with strong, onshore winds and messy 6-8ft short-period waves. Conditions look poor.

From Tuesday 14th through Sunday 19th July, the surf steadily drops. We’re looking at 2-6ft, mostly short-period, and most of it is rated marginal or poor. The wind stays cross-off a lot, but the wave energy drops way down (from 447 down to 421). The last few days, from the 17th, see a longer-period groundswell (15-17 seconds) from the W and SW, but it’s only 2-2ft. That long period makes those little waves fat and slow, better for a point or reef than a beach break like this. Not much to get excited about.

So, the standout is Thursday 9th July afternoon, if you’re an expert looking to handle a big, clean 10ft swell. Otherwise, the consistent, clean 3-4ft days on the 7th and 8th are your best bet for a fun, manageable wave.

Rusty.

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