
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 30 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,857 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 10s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 11PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 11PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 5AM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty. Let's get into it.
Things are looking pretty average for the Drakes Estero area. We've got a run of mostly clean conditions, but the swell quality is holding back any real excitement for most of the forecast. The standout window is a definite Monday morning session, so let's lock that in.
We start off on Thursday the 30th with a modest 3-foot SSW swell pushing through, but it's a long-period 16 second groundswell which will wrap in nicely. The morning offers a bit of shape with that cross-off breeze, but it's not firing. The afternoon sees a jump in height to 8 feet, but the period crashes to 8 seconds and the wind is cranking at 22 mph, making it pretty average. The combined energy is moderate (746), but it's not doing much.
Friday the 31st is a similar story. A 3-foot SSW swell again in the morning with a 14-second period, but the wind is still a brisk cross-off. The afternoon gets messy with a 7-foot swell, but a short 7-second period and strong wind make it a write-off. The combined energy is moderate (1108), but the quality isn't there.
The weekend is a tough one. Saturday the 1st has a 6-foot WNW swell, but the wind is strong and the period is short. By the afternoon, the swell hits 10 feet, and with a 28 mph cross-off, this is big, powerful, and angry. For the average surfer, this is a stay-on-the-beach day. The wave energy is strong (1258), but pure chaos. Sunday the 2nd is still big, with an 8-foot NW swell in the morning, but the wind is lighter. The combined energy is very strong (1958), but the wind is still up in the afternoon, making it tough.
Now for the highlight of the whole outlook. Monday the 3rd of August. The morning is the real deal. A 7-foot swell from the WNW with a 10-second period, and the wind is dead light, just 3 mph from the WNW, making it clean. The water is about average for the time of year. This is the best window we have. The conditions are genuinely good. The afternoon is still surfable, but the wind picks up to 15 mph, so get in before lunch.
After that, we slide into a flat spell. Tuesday the 4th through to Wednesday the 6th is a write-off with onshore winds and poor conditions. The swell drops right off, dropping to 3 feet on the 6th. The combined energy drops to a weak 278. There's a gap of about 3 days where the surf is not worth the paddle.
We get a small pulse back on the 7th, with a 3-foot WNW swell, but it's not inspiring. The 8th through the 12th sees a slow, steady trickle of 3-foot to 5-foot WNW swell, but the wind is always cross-off. It's clean, but it's small and weak. It's more of a longboard wave than a proper session. The combined energy stays in the 500-650 range, which is moderate but not exciting.
The final days from the 13th and 14th are very weak, with 3-foot SW swells, and the wind is light but not ideal. This is a long way out, and the energy is almost gone, with combined energy dropping to 328 by the 14th.
So, to sum it up: Monday morning, the 3rd of August, is the standout. Get there early for the cleanest, most powerful waves of the stretch. The rest of the 16 days is a mix of blown-out or small, clean but weak surf. It's not a blank run, but it's a long wait between good sessions.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat morning, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NW on Thu morning, strong winds from the NW by Sat afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 12°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sat night, calm by Mon morning). | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | SSW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
531 | 436 | 600 | 392 | 293 | 394 | 352 | 372 | 1093 | 954 | 1126 | 1060 | 1183 | 794 | 648 | 890 | 450 | 386 | 255 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-on | on | on |
High Tide | 00:25AM1.74m | 2:22PM1.39m | 1:03AM1.69m | 2:48PM1.44m | 1:43AM1.61m | 3:14PM1.49m | 2:27AM1.51m | 3:42PM1.55m | 3:17AM1.37m | 4:12PM1.62m | 4:19AM1.23m | 4:48PM1.68m | |||||||
Low Tide | 7:54AM-0.12m | 7:47PM0.77m | 8:23AM-0.09m | 8:26PM0.70m | 8:52AM-0.02m | 9:09PM0.63m | 9:23AM0.09m | 9:58PM0.55m | 9:56AM0.25m | 10:54PM0.46m | 10:32AM0.43m | 11:58PM0.36m | |||||||
— | 6:11 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | |
8:23 | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:21 | — | — | 8:20 | — | — | 8:19 | — | — | 8:17 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 9 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 8 |
519 | 436 | 367 | 334 | 293 | 277 | 210 | 131 | 129 | 71 | 718 | 68 | 44 | 794 | 648 | 890 | 450 | 386 | 255 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 9 | SW 9 | SW 15 | S 14 | S 13 | — | W 21 | SW 15 | S 11 | SSW 12 | SSW 13 | S 10 | SW 18 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
3 | 3 | 141 | 148 | 173 | — | 9 | 35 | 21 | 28 | 102 | 18 | 49 | 43 | 41 | 37 | 59 | 56 | 73 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 14 | — | — | S 15 | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | S 10 | SW 18 | SW 18 | S 10 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SSW 12 |
69 | — | — | 110 | — | — | 17 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 12 | 49 | 7 | 42 | 41 | 40 | 36 | 36 | 26 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
531 | 307 | 600 | 392 | 234 | 394 | 352 | 372 | 1093 | 954 | 1126 | 1060 | 1183 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 48 | 26 | 144 | 23 | 26 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 48 | 26 | 145 | 26 | 0 | 32 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











