Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with 1,146 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
Alright crew, Rusty here again, now in feet and miles per hour for you imperial heads. Looking at Drakes Estero, and the long story short is we’ve got some waves but a lot of wind to deal with. The real gem is tucked away in the second week.
Water temp is normal for this time of year, nothing wild.
Starting off Wednesday the 8th of July, we’ve got a 3ft southwest swell with a super long 18-second period. Morning looks clean with a 15 mph cross-off breeze, but the wave energy is moderate (1370). Not a standout.
Thursday the 9th of July bumps up to 8ft from the northwest, but period drops to 9 seconds. That’s a chunk of swell, and by Saturday the 11th of July morning it hits 8ft—that’s expert territory. Wave energy is strong (1783 on Thursday morning) but the wind is a fresh 25 mph cross-off.
From the 8th through the 18th of July, it’s mostly fresh cross-off NW wind in the 25-35 mph range. The surf is there, but it’s lumpy and marginal. The 10th of July morning has 8ft at 9 seconds with strong energy (1634), but still cross-off.
Here’s the turn. Sunday the 19th of July afternoon brings a 2ft southwest swell with an 18-second period, but the wind drops to a light 9 mph cross-off. The report says “expect very good surf conditions”. Wave energy is moderate (724). That’s the pick for a clean, small-wave session.
Then Monday the 20th of July afternoon is the real standout: 5ft from the northwest at 9 seconds, with a light 9 mph cross-off breeze. Wave energy is moderate (1012), and the report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers”. Swell direction is on the money for Drakes Estero.
Tuesday the 21st of July afternoon also looks nice with a 2ft southwest groundswell (15 seconds) and light cross-off wind. And Wednesday the 22nd of July morning has 4ft from the west-northwest at 10 seconds with light winds and clear skies.
So, the first week and a half are windy and lumpy. Save your energy for the afternoon of the 20th of July and the morning of the 22nd of July. Crowds are possible, especially on those clean days.
Stay stoked, and keep an eye on the sky.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 10°C on Tue night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat morning, min 12°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sat night, light winds from the NW by Sun night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tue 14 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | NW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 455 | 600 | 521 | 753 | 905 | 829 | 950 | 846 | 645 | 573 | 390 | 840 | 587 | 698 | 477 | 525 | 400 | 402 | 279 | 247 | 465 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:15AM1.04m | 7:06PM1.73m | 8:59AM1.06m | 7:54PM1.83m | 10:24AM1.15m | 8:45PM1.92m | 11:29AM1.25m | 9:40PM1.99m | 12:22PM1.33m | 10:35PM2.05m | 1:09PM1.40m | 11:29PM2.06m | 1:53PM1.45m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:44AM0.37m | 12:48PM0.55m | 2:48AM0.17m | 1:48PM0.71m | 3:48AM-0.02m | 2:53PM0.83m | 4:42AM-0.20m | 3:58PM0.88m | 5:35AM-0.33m | 5:00PM0.88m | 6:25AM-0.42m | 5:58PM0.85m | 7:14AM-0.45m | 6:55PM0.79m | |||||||
 | | |  |  | | | | | | | |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 6:00 | — |
 | 8:37 | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:34 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 |
Feels °C | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WNW 9 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WNW 9 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WNW 9 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 |
| kJ | 455 | 600 | 521 | 381 | 497 | 376 | 291 | 497 | 236 | 217 | 217 | 220 | 186 | 429 | 211 | 178 | 161 | 156 | 116 | 106 | 85 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 18 | SSW 19 | SW 14 | SW 16 | — | — | SW 16 | — | S 21 | — | W 18 | W 16 | SW 14 | W 18 | W 16 | W 16 | W 14 | SW 19 | W 14 | W 14 |
| kJ | 104 | 510 | 124 | 46 | 381 | — | — | 291 | — | 9 | — | 6 | 5 | 206 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 34 | 96 | 36 | 65 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 10 | — | W 18 | W 15 | SW 21 | W 13 | WSW 20 | W 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 |
| kJ | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | 24 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 37 | 38 | 58 | 50 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | NW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | NW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 |
| kJ | 277 | 260 | 443 | 753 | 905 | 829 | 950 | 846 | 645 | 573 | 390 | 840 | 587 | 698 | 477 | 525 | 400 | 402 | 279 | 247 | 465 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 143 | 26 | 145 | 48 | 26 | 145 | 32 | 145 | 145 | 32 | 26 | 488 | 32 | 26 | 457 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 48 | 26 | 490 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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