Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've been staring at the charts for the Point Reyes area. Look, I'm not gonna beat around the bush—it's a pretty grim run for the next couple of weeks. The main show is Drakes Estero, a beach/river setup that's exposed to the southwest. The water's sitting at 59°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that's one small win.

We kick off Friday the 24th, and it's not great. The swell is a weak 2ft from the SW with a period of 24 seconds. That's a long-period groundswell, but with the combined energy at a moderate 743, it's got no grunt. The wind is a fresh cross-off from the NW at 19 mph, which keeps the surface clean, but the waves are just too small to get excited about.

Saturday the 25th is more of the same. We see a 3ft SW swell, but the period has dropped to 21 seconds, and the energy is still moderate. The wind is still a fresh cross-off, so it's clean, but it's a real knee-knocker.

Sunday the 26th sees the swell hold at 3ft from the SW, but the period drops again to 19 seconds. The morning is clean, but the afternoon brings a strong breeze of 25 mph from the WNW, making it poor. That's a write-off.

Monday the 27th, we get a slight bump up to 3ft from the SW, but the period is dropping to 18 seconds. The energy is moderate. The morning cross-off is okay, but the afternoon strong breeze ruins it.

Tuesday the 28th is a write-off. The swell is a messy 4ft from the SW, but the wind is strong to near gale force. It's a mess.

We get a bit of a change on Wednesday the 29th. The morning is a clean 3ft from the SW, but the afternoon sees a jump to 8ft from the WNW. However, the period crashes to 8 seconds. That's a short-period wind swell, and the combined energy is a strong 1371. At 8ft, this is only for experienced surfers, and with that short period, it's going to be a bumpy, choppy mess. Not a standout.

Thursday the 30th is a mixed bag. The morning has a 3ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, and the wind is a moderate cross-off. The afternoon sees a 6ft WNW swell with a period of just 7 seconds. That's a short, weak wind swell.

Friday the 31st has a clean morning with a 3ft SSW swell, light cross-shore wind, and glassy conditions. The period is a decent 14 seconds. The afternoon jumps to 6ft from the WNW with an 8-second period. It's not terrible, but it's not great.

There's a glimmer on Saturday, August 1st. The morning has a 6ft WNW swell, 8-second period, and a gentle cross-off breeze. The swell is over 5ft, so it's pushing into intermediate territory. The afternoon gets bigger with a 8ft WNW swell, 9-second period, and a fresh breeze. That's expert-level size.

Now, here's the only real ray of hope. Monday, August 3rd, the morning session looks promising. We have a 6ft WNW swell, a 10-second period, and a gentle cross-off breeze. The combined energy is a moderate 754, and the forecast says "expect very good surf conditions." This is 10 days out, so it's promising but not locked in. The swell direction is WNW, which is a good match for the optimum SW direction, and it's clean. This is the one to keep an eye on.

The rest of the run through to August 8th is a long, slow fade. The wind turns onshore from the 5th, ruining the shape. The only other note is Friday, August 7th, which has a small 4ft WNW swell with a 9-second period and glassy conditions in the morning. It's small, but it could be a fun clean session if you're desperate.

Overall, the next 16 days are a slog. We have a lot of days with marginal surf and strong winds. The best bet is the morning of Monday, August 3rd, but it's a long way off. Don't hold your breath.

Rusty.

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