Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the next couple of weeks at Drakes Estero. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so I’ll break it down for you.

The setup is a beach/river mouth that’s fairly consistent, but it’s exposed to the southwest. The water’s sitting at 58°, which is about normal for this time of year.

We’re looking at a long stretch of average to poor surf to start. From Wednesday the 29th through to the end of July, it’s a lot of cross-offshore wind and short-period junky swell. The waves are there, but the combo of choppy conditions and short period (like 7-8 seconds) means it’s not going to be a great session. The combined energy during this period is mostly moderate, hitting 979 (moderate energy) on Wednesday morning, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-off, so it’s messy. Afternoon swells on the 29th and 30th show a bit of size (8 ft and 8 ft), but the period is short and the wind is strong, making it more of a battle than a pleasure. This is a good stretch for the kites, not the paddlers.

The first sign of a real standout comes on Saturday, August 1st. The afternoon looks like the best on offer for the whole outlook. The swell is 10 ft from the WNW, but here’s the thing – at that size, this spot is for experts only. The wind is a strong 28 mph cross-off, which is a major factor, but the combined energy is a powerful 1339 (strong). The call is that the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is just too big for this break. If you’re a seasoned charger, that’s your window. The morning of the 1st has a more manageable 7 ft, but it’s still cross-off and not as clean.

After that, we get a bit of a lull. The 2nd and 3rd of August are okay, but nothing special. The morning of Monday the 3rd is notable for one thing: glassy conditions. The wind drops to 3 mph from the SW, which is a light offshore. The swell is 6 ft from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, and combined energy of 810 (moderate). That’s a clean, fun wave for the experienced intermediate surfer, but it’s not a true standout.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Tuesday the 4th through to the 7th, the wind turns onshore or cross-shore, and the surf quality drops. The 5th of August afternoon shows a glimmer of hope with 4 ft and clean conditions, but it’s not a highlight.

The real second standout pops up on Sunday, August 9th, and Monday, August 10th. The mornings of both days are listed as “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” On the 9th, we’ve got 7 ft from the NW, period 8 seconds, with a light 6 mph cross-off breeze. The combined energy is 1044 (strong). The 10th is similar at 6 ft from the NW, period 9 seconds, with the same light wind, and energy at 1026 (strong). These are solid, powerful waves for the crew that can handle it. The 8-second period is a bit short, but the clean surface and moderate size make it a good call.

The final week, from the 11th onwards, drops off. The swell period increases to 16-18 seconds from the SW, which is a long-period groundswell, but the size is small (2 ft to 3 ft), and the energy is moderate (under 540). These are tiny, clean waves for the longboard or a soul session, not for the main event.

So, to sum it up: the two standout windows are the afternoon of Saturday, August 1st for the experts hitting the big stuff, and the mornings of Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th for a solid, clean session. Everything else is average to poor. Don’t waste your time on the first week of the forecast unless you’re a die-hard kiter.

Rusty.

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