Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 am 14 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.0° C
0.3° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 14 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 1,056 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 16s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 20s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 2PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Thu 16th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Best Surf 8PM (Thu 16th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 8PM (Thu 16th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a wobbly start. The first few days have some swell, but the wind is just not playing nice. It’s all cross-off, which is okay, but it’s pumping too hard to keep things clean and the waves are a bit of a mess. The real quality looks like it’ll be a way off, towards the end of the run. There’s a notable gap in genuinely good, clean surf for a few days there in the middle.

Let’s kick off with Tuesday morning, July 14th at Drakes Estero. The water temp is sitting at 55°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing weird going on there. We’ve got a 3ft swell from the WNW, with a period of 8 seconds. The wind is a light 6 mph from the WNW, making it a cross-off. It’s small and a bit weak, with a combined energy of 263, so you’ll be hunting for the little peaks. It’s clean, but it’s not going to get the heart racing.

The afternoon of the 14th gets a bit bigger, up to 5ft, but the wind jumps to 19 mph from the NW. That’s going to put a chop on it and make it a real struggle. Not worth the paddle out.

Moving into Wednesday, July 15th, the morning looks at 6ft from the WNW, but that same strong 19 mph NW wind is still there ruining the party. It’s too bumpy for a good time.

The week drags on with similar conditions. By Saturday, July 18th, the swell drops right off to 2ft, but the wind finally eases. The morning is a cross-on mess with a 6 mph SW wind, but the afternoon is a different story. The wind goes light and cross-off from the WNW at 9 mph. The swell is tiny at 2ft, but it’s a long-period SW groundswell of 18 seconds. The combined energy is 653, which is moderate. This is clean, glassy, and tiny. It’s a longboard or a big fish kind of day.

The next few days, from Sunday 19th through to Tuesday 21st, are consistent. The swell hangs around 2ft to 3ft, mostly from the SW with a long period of 15-16 seconds. The wind is light and cross-off. It’s all weak, clean, and small. The combined energy stays in the 400-600 range. It’s a consistent run of tiny, clean waves for the patient ones.

Then, on Thursday, July 24th, there’s a pulse. The afternoon shows a 2ft swell from the SW, but with a period of 24 seconds. That’s a very long-period groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 962. The wind is cross-off from the WNW at 16 mph. That’s a lot of energy for a tiny wave, which means it’ll be super clean and lined up, but breaking a bit too straight for a beach break. It’s more of a fun novelty wave than a proper barrel.

Now, the real highlight. The best on offer is a toss-up, but I’m leaning towards Saturday, July 25th. The morning of the 25th has a 3ft swell from the SW with a period of 21 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 1237. The wind is a moderate 12 mph cross-off from the NW. That’s a lot of energy for the size. It’s going to be clean, punchy, and surprisingly fun for a small day. The afternoon of the same day is also interesting, with a 4ft swell from the SSW and a period of 14 seconds, and a combined energy of 1081. The wind is a bit lighter at 12 mph from the WNW. Both sessions on the 25th are the standouts for the whole forecast. The Saturday morning is the top pick for that pure, clean, long-period juice.

The following days, Sunday 26th and Monday 27th, continue with the same pattern but the wind gets a bit stronger, making it less ideal. The swell stays in the 3ft to 4ft range with long periods, but the fresh breeze starts to crinkle the surface.

After that, the wind turns onshore from the SE on the 28th and 29th, which kills the vibe. The swell is still there, but it’s a chop fest.

So, to wrap it up: Early week is a washout. The middle of the run is small, clean, and long-period. The true standout is the morning of Saturday, July 25th, with the afternoon of the same day being a close second. Get on that.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue morning, min 11°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (calm on Tue morning, strong winds from the NW by Wed night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 10°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds.

Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
1
2
2
3
2
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
WNW
8
1.4
WNW
7
1.7
WNW
7
1.7
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
8
2.2
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
8
1.4
WNW
8
0.7
W
16
0.7
W
16
0.7
SW
18
0.7
W
16
0.6
SW
16
0.7
SW
17
0.7
SW
16
0.7
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
123
191
278
319
693
605
459
912
545
298
257
254
251
314
239
170
297
260
242
299
299
Wind (km/h)
10
WNW
30
NW
25
NW
30
NW
40
NW
35
NW
35
NW
40
NW
30
NW
25
NW
30
WNW
15
WNW
10
SW
15
WNW
15
NW
15
WNW
15
WNW
15
NW
10
WNW
15
NW
10
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
1:53PM1.45m
00:23AM2.02m
2:34PM1.49m
1:16AM1.93m
3:15PM1.53m
2:09AM1.79m
3:55PM1.58m
3:04AM1.60m
4:34PM1.61m
4:03AM1.40m
5:14PM1.64m
5:13AM1.21m
5:54PM1.65m
Low Tide
6:55PM0.79m
8:00AM-0.43m
7:52PM0.72m
8:44AM-0.35m
8:50PM0.65m
9:27AM-0.22m
9:51PM0.59m
10:08AM-0.05m
10:54PM0.53m
10:50AM0.15m
00:01AM0.46m
11:34AM0.37m
1:11AM0.38m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
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cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
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part cloud
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<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:01
6:03
6:03
6:03
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:34
8:34
8:32
8:32
8:31
8:30
8:30
 mm
Temp °C
16
16
15
14
15
13
14
14
13
13
13
11
13
13
12
13
13
12
15
15
14
Feels °C
14
10
9
9
7
4
7
7
5
8
8
6
12
11
10
11
11
10
13
13
12
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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