Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 13 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 16s period, W swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 8s period, WNW swell with 866 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 14 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 5PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 5PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s talk about Drakes Estero in feet and miles per hour. This is a beach and river-mouth spot with good southwest exposure. Water temp is around 56°, just about normal for the year.
Right now, the surf is flat-lining. Monday morning is a bust – a weak 4ft west-northwest swell (combined energy 412), a slight onshore south wind at 3 mph. Don’t bother. Monday afternoon doesn’t fix anything – 4ft but with a cross-off breeze at 12 mph, still not quality. Tuesday is more of the same: small and messy. Tuesday afternoon pushes up to 5ft but with 16 mph north-west cross-off winds – that’s poor conditions for any paddle surfer.
Wednesday and Thursday see swelling into the 5 to 7ft range, but wind keeps blowing 16 to 25 mph out of the northwest. Too much wind for good waves – would be better for kiting.
Friday the 17th flips: swell drops to 2ft, but it’s a 17-second west groundswell with 589 combined energy. Too small for real use, though. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th stay tiny (2-2ft), long-period swells from the west and southwest with light winds. Clean but unrideable for most.
Here's the first real highlight: Monday the 20th afternoon. A 4ft west-northwest swell (575 energy), glassy and clean with a light 6 mph cross-off wind from the west. This is the session to hit in the first week. Conditions and swell line up nicely.
Tuesday the 21st through the 23rd goes small again (2 to 3ft), southerly groundswells with mostly light winds. Not exciting.
Then – hold tight – Saturday the 25th sees a building west-northwest swell reaching 6ft (combined energy 998) with light winds. By Sunday the 26th morning, it’s really looking: a 7ft west-northwest groundswell (1178 energy), 10-second period, and a light 9 mph cross-off breeze. That’s excellent quality for experienced surfers. Sunday the 26th morning is the standout of the entire outlook. Just keep in mind it’s two weeks out, so treat it as promising but not locked in.
Monday the 27th the wind picks up and the swell fades. But Tuesday the 28th morning offers a clean 3ft south-west groundswell (610 energy) and light winds for a nice mellow session.
Bottom line: first week is tough; the best early bet is Monday the 20th afternoon. The big one to wait for is Sunday the 26th morning – solid size, clean winds, and real energy. Circle that one.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon morning, strong winds from the NW by Wed night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Thu night, calm by Sat morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | W 17 | W 17 | W 16 | W 16 | SW 18 | NW 7 | SW 16 | SW 17 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 233 | 212 | 294 | 170 | 236 | 278 | 277 | 455 | 579 | 506 | 866 | 395 | 217 | 290 | 254 | 251 | 314 | 239 | 172 | 297 | 274 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:09PM1.40m | 11:29PM2.06m | 1:53PM1.45m | 00:23AM2.02m | 2:34PM1.49m | 1:16AM1.93m | 3:15PM1.53m | 2:09AM1.79m | 3:55PM1.58m | 3:04AM1.60m | 4:34PM1.61m | 4:03AM1.40m | 5:14PM1.64m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:58PM0.85m | 7:14AM-0.45m | 6:55PM0.79m | 8:00AM-0.43m | 7:52PM0.72m | 8:44AM-0.35m | 8:50PM0.65m | 9:27AM-0.22m | 9:51PM0.59m | 10:08AM-0.05m | 10:54PM0.53m | 10:50AM0.15m | 00:01AM0.46m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | |  | | | | |
 | 5:58 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — |
 | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:34 | — | — | 8:34 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:30 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
Feels °C | 14 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | W 18 | W 17 | W 17 | W 16 | WNW 7 | W 16 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | SW 17 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | 233 | 156 | 154 | 104 | 85 | 87 | 60 | 56 | 90 | 124 | 89 | 159 | 217 | 290 | 254 | 96 | 248 | 142 | 138 | 297 | 274 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 13 | W 14 | SW 19 | W 14 | W 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | W 20 | W 19 | SSW 12 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 14 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | W 15 | W 15 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 158 | 34 | 96 | 36 | 65 | 152 | 108 | 73 | 127 | 116 | 26 | 77 | 130 | 73 | 72 | 251 | 314 | 239 | 172 | 161 | 267 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 16 | WSW 20 | W 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | W 13 | W 13 | W 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 16 | S 13 | W 14 |
| kJ | 21 | 37 | 38 | 58 | 81 | 56 | 55 | 54 | 27 | 27 | 16 | 54 | 74 | 121 | 49 | 190 | 44 | 93 | 163 | 32 | 106 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | — | WNW 7 | NW 7 | — | WNW 8 | — |
| kJ | — | 212 | 294 | 170 | 236 | 278 | 277 | 455 | 579 | 506 | 866 | 395 | 168 | 191 | 122 | — | 105 | 228 | — | 120 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 180 | 26 | 48 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 145 | 48 | 145 | 145 | 59 | 48 | 145 | 0 | 313 | 145 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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