Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Issued: 4 am 06 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.6° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 6 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with 1,233 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 06) at 11PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Best Surf 8PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Most Powerful 8PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, grab a coffee. The next 16 days are looking pretty one-dimensional – it’s mostly about Drakes Estero, and honestly, it’s a mixed bag until the second week. We’re looking at a long stretch of onshore-angled winds keeping things messy, with a few windows of cleaner, rideable surf that’ll stand out.

Starting off, Monday the 6th is nothing to write home about. A little 3ft SW groundswell, period of 16 seconds, but with a light cross-shore wind, it’s just going to be bumpy. The combined energy is a moderate 515, and the water temp is 57°, which is about normal for this time of year. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, but it’s not worth the drive.

The whole of the first week – from Monday the 6th right through to Monday the 13th – is dominated by fresh to strong cross-off winds from the NW. The swell builds up, peaking around Wednesday the 8th with a 8ft short-period (8 seconds) W-NW swell, and then again Friday the 10th, but the wind stays strong. You’ll see heights over 8ft on Thursday the 9th afternoon (8ft), which is expert territory, but the wind is a nasty 25 mph, so that’s for kite surfers, not paddlers. The wave energy gets strong – hitting 1464 on Wednesday the 8th – but the quality just isn’t there. Tuesday afternoon the 7th is clear with 22 mph wind – again, not clean for surfing. It’s a long gap of poor conditions.

The standout window starts on Sunday the 12th. That morning, the wind drops right back to a light 6 mph breeze from the WNW, with the swell coming from the NW at 7ft and a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is a solid 1132, and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. A 7ft swell is big enough to need some respect at a beach/river mouth setup, but the light wind will make it clean. That’s your best bet in the first half.

Then we get another clean one on Tuesday the 14th morning – clear skies, a light breeze from the WNW, and a 6ft NW swell (period 8 seconds). That’s very good surf conditions, a classic morning session.

After that, the wind picks back up through Wednesday and Thursday (15th and 16th), but then look at Friday the 17th to Saturday the 18th. We get a classic drop in swell size to a nice 2ft, but the period stretches out to 16 to 18 seconds – proper long-period groundswell from the W. The combined energy is still moderate at 602, but with a light 6 mph wind on Saturday morning, that will be glassy, clean, and fun. It’ll break a bit straight at the beach, but for a longboard or a fish, that’s a dreamy end to the period. That’s about the only one I’d get excited about for a mellow session. The crowds at Drakes Estero can be around sometimes, so expect company.

From Sunday the 19th onwards, it fades back into marginal stuff with stronger winds again. A gap of no real recommendations from the 19th to the 21st.

Overall, if you’re hanging out for a wave, your dates are Sunday the 12th morning for power, Tuesday the 14th morning for clean conditions, and the real standout is Saturday the 18th morning for long, clean groundswell. Keep an eye on the wind forecasts – that’s the key.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon morning, strong winds from the NW by Wed night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Fri night, light winds from the NW by Sat night).

Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
0
1
1
1
1
4
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
SW
16
0.5
SW
21
0.8
SW
20
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
2.3
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
9
2.5
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
9
1.9
WNW
9
2.3
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
7
2.1
WNW
8
2.1
NW
8
1.7
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
318
224
455
384
465
455
600
606
753
629
1027
1014
512
704
488
277
584
559
571
381
402
Wind (km/h)
5
WSW
20
WNW
30
NW
25
NW
35
WNW
35
NW
30
NW
35
NW
35
NW
30
NW
40
NW
35
NW
25
NW
35
WNW
30
NW
25
NW
35
NW
25
NW
10
WNW
25
NW
20
NW
Wind State
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
5:46PM1.55m
5:37AM1.12m
6:24PM1.64m
7:15AM1.04m
7:06PM1.73m
8:59AM1.06m
7:54PM1.83m
10:24AM1.15m
8:45PM1.92m
11:29AM1.25m
9:40PM1.99m
12:22PM1.33m
10:35PM2.05m
Low Tide
11:14AM0.20m
00:36AM0.54m
11:57AM0.37m
1:44AM0.37m
12:48PM0.55m
2:48AM0.17m
1:48PM0.71m
3:48AM-0.02m
2:53PM0.83m
4:42AM-0.20m
3:58PM0.88m
5:35AM-0.33m
5:00PM0.88m
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:54
5:54
5:56
5:56
5:56
5:58
5:58
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:36
8:36
8:36
8:35
 mm
Temp °C
14
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
14
13
13
14
13
13
14
14
13
16
15
13
Feels °C
13
10
8
9
7
5
8
7
4
9
6
5
9
8
5
10
9
6
15
12
8
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
WNW
8
0.7
WNW
12
0.8
SW
20
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
1
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.6
SW
15
1.6
WNW
8
0.7
SW
14
0.7
SSW
14
Energy kJ
84
125
455
384
465
455
600
521
381
381
376
291
291
236
217
217
220
186
331
211
178
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.7
WNW
11
0.6
SW
16
0.5
SW
14
0.5
SW
15
0.9
SW
18
0.4
SSW
19
0.4
SW
14
0.9
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.1
S
11
0.1
S
21
0.1
W
18
0.1
W
16
0.7
SW
14
0.1
W
18
0.2
W
16
Energy kJ
318
206
111
198
103
104
510
124
46
381
291
2
9
6
5
206
6
19
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
WNW
12
0.5
SW
21
0.6
SW
16
0.7
WNW
11
0.2
S
8
0.2
SSW
11
0.1
W
18
0.1
W
20
0.2
W
18
0.1
W
15
0.1
SW
21
Energy kJ
113
224
206
103
5
12
6
8
24
4
18
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
WNW
8
1.4
WNW
6
1.2
WNW
7
1.9
WNW
6
2
WNW
7
1.7
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
9
2.5
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
9
1.9
WNW
9
2.3
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
7
2.1
WNW
8
2.1
NW
8
1.7
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
Energy kJ
100
145
144
295
374
354
606
753
629
1027
1014
512
704
488
277
584
559
571
381
402
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
4
3
2
2
3
2
3
3
2
3
3
2
3
2
1
3
4
2
3
Distance (km)
48
145
32
26
145
59
26
144
48
26
145
48
26
145
32
26
145
32
0
457
24
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County
Rating
(10 max)
2
3
4
3
4
3
3
2
2
2
4
3
Best forecast wave conditions in United States
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
4
3
2
4
4
2
4
4
2
4
4
2
3
2
2
3
4
3
3
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
8
7
5
5
9
8
9
9
5
6
6
5
8
6
5
5
5
9
9
7
4
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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