Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Drakes Estero.

Look, I’m gonna be straight with you, the next 16 days around here are a real mixed bag. We’ve got a long stretch of marginal conditions where the wind is just a bit too strong to make it truly good, but there are a couple of windows where everything lines up. For the first week and a half, the wind is mostly a cross-off breeze from the northwest, which is okay, but it’s blowing at 16 mph to 25 mph for most of it, mixing up the surface. The water temperature is sitting at about 57°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real glimmer of something decent doesn’t come until the morning of Thursday, the 30th of July. The wind drops to a moderate 12 mph, still cross-off, and the swell is a clean 3 ft from the SSW with a period of 16 seconds. That’s a long period groundswell, which means good shape and energy, but with a combined energy of 1210 (moderate energy), it’s got some push. The only catch is that for a beach/river mouth setup, a long period swell like that can sometimes break a bit too straight. Still, it’s the pick of the early run.

Now, the real standout for me is that Wednesday, the 5th of August. The afternoon session is looking proper. We’ve got a 7 ft swell from the WNW, with a period of 9 seconds, and the wind is a light cross-off at 6 mph. The combined energy is 733 (moderate energy), and the conditions are clean. That’s a solid head-high, clean wave. It’s on the bigger side, so it’s not for beginners, but for anyone with a bit of experience, that’s the one to circle on the calendar. The following morning, Thursday the 6th, is also looking good with a 6 ft swell from the WNW, a 10-second period, and light onshore wind from the SSW at 6 mph. Combined energy is 667 (moderate energy), and the conditions are clean again. That’s a solid, fun wave.

In between those dates, there’s a lot of average to poor conditions. The wind is just too fresh for most of it, and the swell is either small or choppy. For the second week, the pattern is similar, but the standout days are clear. Just remember, when the swell gets over 8 ft, like on the morning of the 2nd of August with 8 ft, it’s expert-only territory, and the wind is fresh, so it’s not the best call.

In short, if you’re keen, aim for the 5th of August afternoon or the 6th of August morning. That’s your best bet.

Rusty.

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