Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag at Drakes Estero. The first few days will be a paddling grind, but the middle of the period has a standout window.

The week starts off Thursday July 16th and Friday 17th with a lot of cross-off wind from the Northwest, blowing 15 to 25 mph. You’ll see some chest-high to head-high swell (5 ft to 8 ft) from the WNW, but the period is short (7 to 8 seconds), so the waves will be a bit lumpy and chunky. The combined energy readings are moderate, but it’s not clean enough to get excited about. The water temperature is about average for the time of year at 57°.

The first real standout happens Saturday morning July 18th. The wind eases to a gentle breeze from the WNW, and we get a clean, cross-off 2 ft swell from the West with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s groundswell, and it’s going to offer some proper shaped lines with long gaps between sets. The combined energy is moderate, but the quality is the key here. The break is a beach/river mouth setup, so watch for the long-period swell to bend around the sandbars.

Saturday afternoon sees a little more energy but the period jumps to 18 seconds from the SW. The waves stay small (2 ft), but the wind is still clean. The best bet is to grab the morning session.

Sunday July 19th is another good option. The morning has light cross-shore wind from the West, with a 2 ft swell from the SW at 16 seconds. Not big, but the period is long and the surface is super clean. Sunday afternoon winds are light and the swell pushes to 3 ft from the SW at 17 seconds. The surf is very small, but the quality is there for a log or a fish.

The middle of the week (Monday July 20th through Thursday July 23rd) is tricky. The wind is light but often cross-shore, and the swell is a mix of small (2 ft to 4 ft) and short period (8 to 14 seconds). The wave energy is moderate, but the conditions are marginal. The best of this stretch is about 4 ft to 4 ft from the SSW on Monday morning and Tuesday morning, but with cross-shore wind and an onshore flow on Tuesday, it’s not a standout.

Friday July 24th and Saturday July 25th see a massive jump in combined energy, but the swell is small (2 ft to 3 ft) with a very long period (21 to 24 seconds) from the SW. The wind is a strong cross-off from the NW, so the surface is clean, but the wave height is tiny. The long period will make for some well-shaped, clean lines, but it’s going to be a patient wait for the sets.

The real whale shows up on Sunday July 26th, but it’s a monster. The afternoon shows a 10 ft swell from the WNW with 8 seconds period and lots of energy. The wind is a fresh breeze from the NW, cleaning things up. This is a big one for the region, but the break is a beach/river mouth setup, and at that size, it’s going to be a washing machine. This is for experts only, and even then, it’s a serious paddle. The combined energy is very strong, but the short period means it’s going to be a powerful, messy wall of water. The last few days of the month (July 27th to 31st) are back to small, clean lines with 3 ft to 5 ft swells from the SW, but the wind is often strong (15 to 28 mph) and cross-off, making it hard to get a good wave.

The best two sessions are Saturday July 18th morning for the clean, long-period groundswell, and Sunday July 19th afternoon for the glassy, clean little waves. For bigger windows, the long-period swells on July 24th and 25th offer clean, small lines, but the real power day (July 26th) is a beast for experts only.

Rusty

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