Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, NW swell with 889 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 8PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Tue 28th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.
We’re looking at a pretty quiet run to start. The swell is just too small and the wind is workin’ against us to get anything clean. There’s a bit of a wait before we see anything worth paddling out for.
The first real window of opportunity looks like it arrives on Sunday, July 28th at Drakes Estero. We’ve got a 4 ft swell from the SSW, but the real story is the wind. It’s a fresh cross-offshore breeze, so the surface will be glassy. The wave energy is moderate (1088), but honestly, the size is still small. This is a quiet, beginner-friendly spot, and with the crowds only sometimes, you might have it to yourself. The water temp is about average for the time of year.
Then things get a bit more interesting. Tuesday, July 30th is a standout. The swell bumps up to 7 ft from the NW, but the period is a short 8 seconds. That’s a windswell, not a groundswell, so it’ll be a bit lumpy and dumpy on the beach. The wave energy is strong (1348), so there’s push, but at over 7 ft, this is expert territory. The wind is a moderate cross-off, which is a big plus, keepin’ it clean. This isn’t a pretty wave, but it’s got power.
Looking further out, Sunday, August 4th is another one to circle. We’ve got a 6 ft swell from the WNW with a long period of 11 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy (735), and it’ll be clean with a gentle cross-off breeze. The size is manageable, and the longer period will make for a better shaped wave. This is a solid, all-rounder option.
The best wave of the whole forecast, though, is Tuesday, August 6th. The swell drops to 3 ft from the WNW, but the period is a solid 9 seconds. The wind is light and cross-shore, creating glassy conditions. This is small but clean, and with light wind, it’ll be the most fun you’ll have all week. It’s a tiny wave, but it’ll be a rippable one.
Overall, there’s no proper big swell, but there are a few windows of clean, manageable surf. The best bet is the small, clean glassy conditions on August 6th. The bigger stuff on July 30th is for experts only.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Wed night, fresh winds from the NW by Fri night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 12°C on Sat night). Mainly strong winds. | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | NW 8 | SW 18 | WNW 8 | SW 17 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 264 | 321 | 200 | 329 | 448 | 661 | 389 | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 614 | 522 | 621 | 791 | 558 | 679 | 832 | 560 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:55AM1.12m | 8:09PM1.68m | 11:01AM1.21m | 8:56PM1.70m | 11:50AM1.27m | 9:43PM1.72m | 12:28PM1.31m | 10:26PM1.75m | 1:00PM1.33m | 11:07PM1.76m | 1:30PM1.34m | 11:46PM1.76m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:21AM0.19m | 2:30PM0.87m | 4:15AM0.10m | 3:34PM0.94m | 5:01AM0.03m | 4:29PM0.95m | 5:42AM-0.03m | 5:16PM0.94m | 6:19AM-0.08m | 5:57PM0.91m | 6:53AM-0.11m | 6:34PM0.87m | |||||||
 | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | 8:29 | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:28 | — | — | 8:27 | — | — | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Feels °C | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 8 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 |
| kJ | 120 | 321 | 200 | 246 | 249 | 201 | 173 | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 614 | 522 | 621 | 791 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 560 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | S 7 | S 13 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 13 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 |
| kJ | 264 | 27 | 125 | 329 | 448 | 661 | 389 | 113 | 57 | 56 | 36 | 43 | 69 | 40 | 38 | 89 | 35 | 32 | 30 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 12 | WNW 11 | S 7 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | — | SW 21 | SW 14 | SSW 10 | SSW 12 | S 10 | S 10 | SW 11 |
| kJ | 52 | 44 | 8 | 49 | 46 | 43 | 25 | 25 | 37 | 18 | 18 | — | 117 | 30 | 19 | 56 | 2 | 2 | 30 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | WNW 4 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | — | 21 | 80 | 69 | 52 | 116 | 114 | 83 | 171 | 164 | 107 | 303 | 253 | 158 | 428 | 558 | 372 | 832 | 531 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 26 | 147 | 144 | 32 | 144 | 144 | 59 | 144 | 144 | 48 | 48 | 144 | 59 | 48 | 144 | 48 | 26 | 145 | 48 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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