Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Issued: 4 pm 04 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.0° C

Normal for this time of year

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 5 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 1,259 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 5 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 14s period with SSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 2AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 5PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 2AM (Sun 5th Jul)2ft (0.6m) 14s
Best Surf 5PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 5PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, let’s break down what’s going on at Drakes Estero over the next couple weeks. It’s a beach and river mouth setup, exposed to that SW direction. Water temp’s about 55°F, which is average for this time of year, nothing wild.

First decent surf shows up Saturday afternoon, July 4th. We’re looking at clean waves, 2ft from the SW. Wind is a light cross-off, so it’ll be glassy. The combined energy is moderate (457). Not a huge day, but for a beginner-friendly spot, this is a nice, easy start.

Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th get blown out a bit with onshore and side winds, making things choppy or just so-so. The swell bumps to 2ft, but the quality goes down.

Tuesday morning, July 7th, is where it gets better. A 4ft WNW swell rolls in, clean under a cross-off breeze. The combined energy jumps to moderate-strong (1022). That’s a solid step up. Not huge, but the wave shape should be better. Tuesday afternoon stays clean but drops back to 3ft.

Wednesday the 8th holds around 3ft SW swell, clean again, and the energy is really up there (1402) – a strong pulse. Wind stays cross-off, so the surface is good.

Now, Thursday, July 9th. This is the big one. Thursday morning we see a 7ft WNW swell, but it’s short period (8 seconds), with strong energy (919). The afternoon gets serious: 10ft from the WNW. That’s proper heavy. The wind is a strong cross-off, keeping it clean, but the combined wave energy hits 1635 – that’s very strong. At over 8ft, this is expert-only territory. For experienced surfers only, and that short period might make it a bit messy. Beginners, stay out of the water. The size and power is the main event, but it’s not a friendly wave.

Friday the 10th backs off a bit but still has 6-7ft in the morning, with strong energy. Wind stays cross-off. Still clean, still heavy.

Saturday the 11th has onshore wind in the morning, messing up the 6ft swell. The afternoon gets better with a light side wind, but the swell is 8ft – still for experienced folks only.

Sunday the 12th is similar, with 7-8ft WNW swell and a cross-off breeze, but the energy starts fading. Monday the 13th goes downhill fast with strong, onshore winds and messy 6-8ft short-period waves. Conditions look poor.

From Tuesday 14th through Sunday 19th July, the surf steadily drops. We’re looking at 2-6ft, mostly short-period, and most of it is rated marginal or poor. The wind stays cross-off a lot, but the wave energy drops way down (from 447 down to 421). The last few days, from the 17th, see a longer-period groundswell (15-17 seconds) from the W and SW, but it’s only 2-2ft. That long period makes those little waves fat and slow, better for a point or reef than a beach break like this. Not much to get excited about.

So, the standout is Thursday 9th July afternoon, if you’re an expert looking to handle a big, clean 10ft swell. Otherwise, the consistent, clean 3-4ft days on the 7th and 8th are your best bet for a fun, manageable wave.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 11°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SW on Sat afternoon, fresh winds from the NW by Mon night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Wed night, light winds from the WNW by Fri morning).

Sat
4
Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
0
1
2
2
2
1
3
1
1
3
1
1
1
!
1
3
1
3
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
SW
19
0.6
SSW
14
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.5
SW
18
0.8
SW
16
0.5
SW
21
0.8
SW
20
1.3
WNW
11
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
1
SW
16
2.2
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
3
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
184
140
252
249
152
318
224
455
412
465
455
600
521
651
538
1259
704
453
525
559
363
Wind (km/h)
15
WNW
10
W
15
SW
15
W
10
WNW
10
W
25
WNW
30
NW
20
WNW
30
WNW
35
NW
20
NW
35
NW
35
NW
35
NW
40
NW
30
NW
20
WNW
25
NW
10
NW
10
S
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
High Tide
4:40PM1.41m
3:23AM1.39m
5:12PM1.48m
4:21AM1.25m
5:46PM1.55m
5:37AM1.12m
6:24PM1.64m
7:15AM1.04m
7:06PM1.73m
8:59AM1.06m
7:54PM1.83m
10:24AM1.15m
8:45PM1.92m
11:29AM1.25m
Low Tide
10:27PM0.77m
10:35AM0.05m
11:29PM0.67m
11:14AM0.20m
00:36AM0.54m
11:57AM0.37m
1:44AM0.37m
12:48PM0.55m
2:48AM0.17m
1:48PM0.71m
3:48AM-0.02m
2:53PM0.83m
4:42AM-0.20m
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:54
5:54
5:54
5:56
5:56
5:56
5:58
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:36
8:36
8:36
 mm
Temp °C
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
13
12
13
14
13
14
13
12
14
14
12
14
Feels °C
12
11
11
11
10
11
11
7
9
8
5
9
7
4
8
6
4
11
10
7
12
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
0.9
WNW
8
0.9
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
0.7
WNW
12
0.8
SW
20
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
1
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
Energy kJ
133
133
136
114
103
140
125
455
384
465
455
600
521
381
381
376
291
291
232
217
217
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SSW
14
0.6
SSW
14
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.5
SW
18
0.8
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.7
WNW
11
0.6
SW
16
0.5
SW
15
0.5
SW
15
0.9
SW
18
0.4
SSW
19
0.4
SW
14
0.8
SW
16
0.1
S
21
Energy kJ
140
140
252
249
152
318
206
109
198
104
104
510
124
46
291
9
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
SW
19
0.4
WNW
13
0.4
WNW
12
0.5
W
13
0.5
SW
13
0.5
WNW
12
0.5
SW
21
0.6
SW
16
0.3
SSW
12
0.2
S
8
0.2
SSW
11
Energy kJ
184
55
50
86
85
82
224
206
28
5
12
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
6
1.3
WNW
11
2
WNW
6
1.9
WNW
7
1.6
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
2.2
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
3
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
Energy kJ
100
170
412
312
332
292
441
651
538
1259
704
453
525
559
363
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
3
1
2
2
1
3
3
2
3
4
2
3
3
2
3
3
4
3
3
Distance (km)
0
0
75
145
0
48
145
32
26
147
59
26
144
48
48
144
32
32
240
0
5
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
2
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
Best forecast wave conditions in United States
Rating
(10 max)
2
3
3
2
3
2
2
4
4
2
4
4
3
4
3
2
4
3
4
4
3
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
5
9
7
5
6
8
7
5
5
9
8
9
9
5
5
5
5
8
7
6
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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