Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, this is a long one. Rusty here.

Honestly, looking through the whole 16 days, it starts real slow and stays mostly marginal. There’s a glimmer at the end of the first week, but the real highlight is a massive, expert-only pulse right at the beginning. For the rest, you’ll be working for scraps. The water temp at Drakes Estero is 57°F, which is pretty much spot-on average for the time of year, so no nasty surprises there.

Our main spot is Drakes Estero, a beach/river setup exposed to the southwest. We don’t get a proper start until Wednesday the 22nd, and even then, it’s only a small 5ft SSW swell with 9 mph onshore wind, giving us marginal, messy conditions. That sets the tone. Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th are poor, with clean but tiny 2ft to 3ft waves and fresh winds. This stretch is a write-off for paddling.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th see the swell holding around 3ft to 3ft from the SW, still clean but underpowered. The wave energy is moderate (913 on Sunday morning), but it's not enough to get excited about. This pattern of small, clean but gutless surf continues right through to Tuesday morning the 28th.

Then, Tuesday afternoon the 28th of July hits, and it’s a whole different ballgame. We get a sudden spike: a 10ft swell from the NW, but the period is a short 8 seconds. This is a pulse of raw, chunky, short-period energy. The combined energy is a massive 1773, which is very strong. However, at this size, it’s strictly for experts only. For a beginner, this is dangerous. The cross-off wind will hold it open, but that short period means it will be a wall of whitewater, not a clean, lined-up wave. It’s a one-off pulse before things drop back down.

After that big spike, Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th are still clean but with messy, windy 8ft to 7ft swell and near-gale force winds. This is less about surfing and more about survival. Friday the 31st is slightly better, with a 8ft NW swell and a moderate breeze, but the period is still short (8 seconds). The energy is strong (1411), so there’s plenty of push, but the shape will be poor.

The first real standout for a normal surfer arrives on Saturday the 1st of August. The morning is the pick: a 5ft WNW swell with a light breeze. It’s clean, the cross-off wind is holding it up, and at 5ft it’s manageable for most intermediates. The wave energy is moderate (678), and overall it’s a much better prospect. The afternoon gets windier and less appealing.

Sunday the 2nd of August morning is another decent call. A 4ft SSW swell with a long 14 second period and light winds. That long period will give it some real push and shape, but at a beach break like Drakes Estero, a long period groundswell can make the waves wall up and close out. Still, it’s worth a look. After that, it goes marginal again from Monday the 3rd through to Thursday the 6th, with small, onshore or light wind conditions. The final day, Thursday afternoon, is a tiny 2ft S swell with a long 15 second period and light cross-onshore wind – not much to write home about.

So, the standout is the big expert pulse on the 28th, and the most promising clean, manageable window for the rest of us is the morning of Saturday the 1st of August. The gaps between these events are filled with small, windy, or just plain poor conditions, especially from the 23rd to the 27th. It’s a real mixed bag.

Keep your wetsuit on, the forecasts can change. Rusty out.

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