Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 pm 01 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
12.4° C
1.7° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 2 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,801 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 2 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 9s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 6s period and expected on Friday (Aug 07) at 8PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8AM (Sun 2nd Aug)7ft (2.1m) 9s
Best Surf 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 10s
Most Powerful 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here, checking in on Drakes Estero. This is a beach and river mouth setup that’s fairly consistent and good for beginners. The water temp is about normal for this time of year.

The best action is right at the start. Sunday morning, August 2nd, has some clouds, a light 9 mph cross-offshore breeze from the northwest, and a solid 7 ft swell from the west-northwest. The swell period is 9 seconds and the combined energy is moderate (834). The wave comment says it’s very good surf conditions. That’s your standout session. The swell gets a touch bigger to 7 ft in the afternoon, but the wind picks up to 19 mph, so the morning is the call.

After that, it’s a long dry spell. From Sunday afternoon through the end of the first week, the swell drops fast. Monday has a 6 ft swell but the wind is onshore from the south. Tuesday through Thursday is flat to tiny, under 3 ft, with mostly onshore or light cross-shore wind. The energy drops into the weak range. There’s a big gap of poor or marginal surf through to August 8th.

There’s a small uptick on August 9th, Sunday morning, with a 6 ft west-northwest swell and clean cross-offshore wind, but it’s still marginal.

Then we hit another quiet patch from August 11th to the 15th. The swell is tiny, mostly 1 ft to 3 ft, with long-period energy from the southwest (16 to 19 seconds). The energy is moderate but the wave heights are just too small.

The end of the forecast looks better. On August 16th, Sunday afternoon, and into August 17th, Monday morning, we get a clean 3 ft southwest swell with a 15-second period. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the west-northwest. The energy is moderate (around 460-470) and the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s a clean, promising option for the second week.

For a beginner, the 7 ft swell on the 2nd is a bit much but doable in the morning. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 12°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sat night, calm by Mon afternoon).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
Friday
7
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
3
1
!
1
2
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.3
WNW
9
2
WNW
9
2.2
WNW
9
3
NW
10
1.8
WNW
10
1.5
WNW
10
1.3
WNW
9
1.1
WNW
9
1.1
WNW
8
0.9
WNW
8
0.8
WNW
8
0.8
WNW
9
0.8
WNW
9
0.5
SW
13
0.5
SW
13
0.4
SW
18
0.4
SW
18
0.5
SW
19
1.4
WNW
7
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
773
702
835
1801
627
411
261
190
173
103
69
96
96
84
84
83
85
181
191
Wind (km/h)
30
NW
15
NW
30
NW
15
NW
10
S
5
W
10
SSE
15
SSE
10
SSW
5
S
10
SSW
10
WSW
5
SW
10
WSW
15
NW
10
WNW
10
WNW
20
WNW
20
WNW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
cross
on
on
on
on
on
cross
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
2:27AM1.51m
3:42PM1.55m
3:17AM1.37m
4:12PM1.62m
4:19AM1.23m
4:48PM1.68m
5:43AM1.11m
5:31PM1.74m
7:31AM1.07m
6:23PM1.79m
9:12AM1.13m
7:24PM1.84m
Low Tide
9:09PM0.63m
9:23AM0.09m
9:58PM0.55m
9:56AM0.25m
10:54PM0.46m
10:32AM0.43m
11:58PM0.36m
11:16AM0.61m
1:10AM0.24m
12:12PM0.78m
2:23AM0.11m
1:27PM0.90m
3:30AM-0.03m
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:15
6:16
6:16
6:16
6:18
6:18
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:21
8:20
8:19
8:17
8:16
8:15
8:14
 mm
Temp °C
14
15
15
14
16
16
13
16
16
14
14
15
14
16
15
12
15
15
12
Feels °C
7
13
10
9
15
16
12
14
14
14
13
14
13
16
13
9
14
12
8
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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