Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 4 pm 23 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
14.0° C
0.4° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 24 Jul 2026:

  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 26 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 20s period, SW swell with 843 kJ wave energy.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.1m 20s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 8PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)--
Best Surf--
Most Powerful 5AM (Sun 26th Jul)3.5ft (1.1m) 20s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks. We’re focusing on one spot, and it’s going to be a bit of a mixed bag, so patience is key.

Look, the first week is a bit of a grind. We’ve got small, weak swell in the water, and the wind is a persistent cross-offshore breeze from the NW. It’s not terrible, but it’s not setting the world on fire either. The waves on offer are small, around 2 ft to 4 ft, and the energy is all over the place, from weak (333) up to moderate (1221). The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year. Expect a lot of reports of "marginal" conditions. It’s a waiting game, but the wind is at least keeping the surface clean.

The real standout of the whole forecast is Sunday, August 2nd. The morning is going to be the pick of the bunch. We’ve got a solid 6 ft swell from the WNW, but it’s a short-period, windswell-type wave (8 seconds). The wind is a light breeze from the WNW, which is cross-offshore, so the surface will be clean. The energy is moderate (864). It’s a great setup for a beginner-friendly beach break like this. The afternoon sees the swell bump up to 8 ft, which is getting into the "too big for beginners" territory, but still clean. This is the on button.

Now, be careful heading into the next week. Monday, August 3rd, things get messy. We get onshore wind from the SSE, and the swell jumps to over 10 ft. That’s expert-only territory, and the wind is all wrong for it. It’s going to be a washing machine. A few days later, on Thursday, August 6th, the afternoon looks promising again with a 7 ft swell from the WNW and a light cross-offshore breeze for clean conditions. The energy is moderate (522), and it’s a solid setup.

The second week is a bit of a mixed bag of moderate to small swell and onshore winds. It’s not a total write-off, but you’ll need to pick your windows. The patterns are there, but it’s a lot less certain. Keep an eye on the charts.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri morning, min 13°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NW on Mon morning, strong winds from the NW by Tue night).

Thu
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
0
1
1
0
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.7
SW
14
0.5
SW
26
0.6
SW
24
0.8
SW
24
0.6
SW
22
0.9
SW
21
0.8
SW
21
1
SW
20
0.9
SW
19
0.9
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
1.1
SW
18
1.1
SW
19
0.9
SW
19
1.1
SW
18
1.1
SW
18
1
SW
17
1
SW
16
2.3
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
200
329
448
661
389
763
543
731
627
614
522
702
791
518
679
781
560
527
590
559
Wind (km/h)
30
WNW
25
NW
30
NW
35
WNW
30
NW
30
NW
35
WNW
30
NW
30
NW
35
NW
35
NW
30
NW
40
NW
35
NW
35
NW
45
NW
35
NW
35
NW
50
NW
30
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
8:09PM1.68m
11:01AM1.21m
8:56PM1.70m
11:50AM1.27m
9:43PM1.72m
12:28PM1.31m
10:26PM1.75m
1:00PM1.33m
11:07PM1.76m
1:30PM1.34m
11:46PM1.76m
1:56PM1.36m
00:25AM1.74m
Low Tide
2:30PM0.87m
4:15AM0.10m
3:34PM0.94m
5:01AM0.03m
4:29PM0.95m
5:42AM-0.03m
5:16PM0.94m
6:19AM-0.08m
5:57PM0.91m
6:53AM-0.11m
6:34PM0.87m
7:24AM-0.12m
7:11PM0.82m
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:07
6:07
6:09
6:09
6:11
6:11
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:29
8:28
8:27
8:25
8:24
8:23
8:23
 mm
Temp °C
15
14
16
16
15
15
16
15
15
16
15
15
16
15
16
17
15
16
16
14
Feels °C
11
9
11
11
9
9
11
9
10
11
8
10
9
6
10
11
7
10
9
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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