Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a wobbly start. The first few days have some swell, but the wind is just not playing nice. It’s all cross-off, which is okay, but it’s pumping too hard to keep things clean and the waves are a bit of a mess. The real quality looks like it’ll be a way off, towards the end of the run. There’s a notable gap in genuinely good, clean surf for a few days there in the middle.

Let’s kick off with Tuesday morning, July 14th at Drakes Estero. The water temp is sitting at 55°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing weird going on there. We’ve got a 3ft swell from the WNW, with a period of 8 seconds. The wind is a light 6 mph from the WNW, making it a cross-off. It’s small and a bit weak, with a combined energy of 263, so you’ll be hunting for the little peaks. It’s clean, but it’s not going to get the heart racing.

The afternoon of the 14th gets a bit bigger, up to 5ft, but the wind jumps to 19 mph from the NW. That’s going to put a chop on it and make it a real struggle. Not worth the paddle out.

Moving into Wednesday, July 15th, the morning looks at 6ft from the WNW, but that same strong 19 mph NW wind is still there ruining the party. It’s too bumpy for a good time.

The week drags on with similar conditions. By Saturday, July 18th, the swell drops right off to 2ft, but the wind finally eases. The morning is a cross-on mess with a 6 mph SW wind, but the afternoon is a different story. The wind goes light and cross-off from the WNW at 9 mph. The swell is tiny at 2ft, but it’s a long-period SW groundswell of 18 seconds. The combined energy is 653, which is moderate. This is clean, glassy, and tiny. It’s a longboard or a big fish kind of day.

The next few days, from Sunday 19th through to Tuesday 21st, are consistent. The swell hangs around 2ft to 3ft, mostly from the SW with a long period of 15-16 seconds. The wind is light and cross-off. It’s all weak, clean, and small. The combined energy stays in the 400-600 range. It’s a consistent run of tiny, clean waves for the patient ones.

Then, on Thursday, July 24th, there’s a pulse. The afternoon shows a 2ft swell from the SW, but with a period of 24 seconds. That’s a very long-period groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 962. The wind is cross-off from the WNW at 16 mph. That’s a lot of energy for a tiny wave, which means it’ll be super clean and lined up, but breaking a bit too straight for a beach break. It’s more of a fun novelty wave than a proper barrel.

Now, the real highlight. The best on offer is a toss-up, but I’m leaning towards Saturday, July 25th. The morning of the 25th has a 3ft swell from the SW with a period of 21 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 1237. The wind is a moderate 12 mph cross-off from the NW. That’s a lot of energy for the size. It’s going to be clean, punchy, and surprisingly fun for a small day. The afternoon of the same day is also interesting, with a 4ft swell from the SSW and a period of 14 seconds, and a combined energy of 1081. The wind is a bit lighter at 12 mph from the WNW. Both sessions on the 25th are the standouts for the whole forecast. The Saturday morning is the top pick for that pure, clean, long-period juice.

The following days, Sunday 26th and Monday 27th, continue with the same pattern but the wind gets a bit stronger, making it less ideal. The swell stays in the 3ft to 4ft range with long periods, but the fresh breeze starts to crinkle the surface.

After that, the wind turns onshore from the SE on the 28th and 29th, which kills the vibe. The swell is still there, but it’s a chop fest.

So, to wrap it up: Early week is a washout. The middle of the run is small, clean, and long-period. The true standout is the morning of Saturday, July 25th, with the afternoon of the same day being a close second. Get on that.

Rusty.

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