
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 12 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 12 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 9s period, WNW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 15 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 502 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 12 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 9s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 2AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 11PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 16) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 2AM (Wed 12th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 2AM (Wed 12th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 11PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.
Alright, so we’ve got a bit of a slow start on the horizon. The first real window of decent surf isn’t until Wednesday afternoon, August 12th. Before that, Tuesday afternoon is looking a bit messy with a cross-shore wind and pretty marginal conditions. So, we’ve got a quiet couple of days to kick things off.
The main story for the next week is a consistent, clean signal from the west-northwest and southwest, but it’s mostly small stuff. The standout window is looking like a real sneaky beauty on the morning of Tuesday, August 25th and into Wednesday, August 26th. That’s where the juice is.
Let’s break it down. The first real chance to get wet is Wednesday afternoon, August 12th at Drakes Estero. The swell is 4ft from the WNW period 9 seconds, and that light cross-offshore breeze from the WNW is going to leave it clean. The combined wave energy is moderate (458). The water temp is about 59°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so a spring suit is the move.
Thursday and Friday, August 13th and 14th, are a write-off for quality surfing. We’ve got onshore winds and small, choppy conditions. Friday afternoon, August 14th, does see a tiny 2ft swell from the SSW with a super long 18-second period, but it’s glassy clean. The energy is moderate (397). It’s a long-period groundswell, so it might wrap in a bit differently at this beach/river-mouth setup, but it’s worth a paddle if you’re desperate for a few clean ones.
The weekend of August 16th and 17th is a bit of a mixed bag. Saturday, August 15th, we have a 3ft SW swell with a 17-second period and a cross-shore wind, so slightly bumpy. Sunday morning, August 16th, is the pick of the weekend with a 3ft SW swell, 16-second period, and a cross-shore wind. The energy is moderate (586). Monday, August 17th, looks clean with cross-offshore winds and a 3ft swell from the SW, period 14 seconds. The energy is moderate (339). Good for a longboard, honestly.
From Tuesday, August 18th and through the next week, it’s a steady stream of small, clean conditions. A lot of 2ft to 3ft swell with those lovely cross-offshore winds. The energy stays moderate (250-481). It’s not pumping, but it’s consistent and clean. Wednesday, August 19th morning looks like a solid little session.
Now, the real standout is the far end of the forecast. The morning of Tuesday, August 25th, we’ve got a 7ft swell from the WNW, but the period is a short 6 seconds. That’s a windswell, and it’s going to be powerful. The combined energy is strong (688). That’s a big jump. The wind is a clean cross-offshore breeze from the WNW. That’s going to be a proper, punchy day. It’s over 5ft, so it’s a bit too much for beginners, but for the experienced crew, that’s a fun, punchy wave. The short period means it’ll be a bit more walled up, but clean.
Then Wednesday, August 26th, the swell drops back to 3ft from the SW, but the period is a solid 16 seconds, and the energy is very strong (654). The wind is light and cross-offshore. That’s a classic, clean groundswell day. The direction is a great match for the optimum swell direction from the SW. This is a long-period groundswell, so it’ll be lined up and have some real push, but it might break a bit straight at the beach. Still, for a morning session, that’s the best of the 16-day window after the 25th.
So, the highlight is the 25th and 26th of August. The 25th is for the power surfers, the 26th is for the clean, long-period glide. The rest of the period is a solid run of small, clean, and consistent conditions. The crowds are possible at Drakes Estero, so keep that in mind.
This is Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed morning, min 12°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 12°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
211 | 370 | 261 | 261 | 243 | 228 | 197 | 191 | 174 | 221 | 252 | 414 | 268 | 502 | 489 | 344 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 211 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:25PM1.98m | 1:19PM1.52m | 00:18AM1.93m | 1:54PM1.57m | 1:09AM1.82m | 2:29PM1.62m | 2:01AM1.68m | 3:03PM1.65m | 2:54AM1.51m | 3:36PM1.67m | 3:52AM1.34m | 4:11PM1.66m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:56PM0.73m | 6:54AM-0.29m | 6:49PM0.62m | 7:35AM-0.23m | 7:41PM0.52m | 8:14AM-0.12m | 8:33PM0.45m | 8:52AM0.03m | 9:25PM0.39m | 9:29AM0.22m | 10:19PM0.35m | 10:07AM0.42m | 11:17PM0.33m | |||||||
— | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | |
8:09 | — | — | 8:08 | — | — | 8:07 | — | — | 8:06 | — | — | 8:05 | — | — | 8:04 | — | — | 8:01 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 12 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
211 | 370 | 261 | 261 | 243 | 228 | 197 | 135 | 104 | 74 | 37 | 414 | 268 | 502 | 489 | 344 | 305 | 305 | 305 | 211 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 7 | WNW 6 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | S 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | S 10 | W 9 |
100 | 194 | 150 | 130 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 191 | 174 | 221 | 252 | 34 | 23 | 20 | 77 | 19 | 29 | 27 | 7 | 39 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SSW 12 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 10 | SW 13 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | W 12 | SW 10 |
113 | 28 | 65 | 67 | 27 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 97 | 102 | 167 | 20 | 85 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 15 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | S 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 7 | WNW 5 | — | WNW 10 | WNW 5 | WNW 4 | W 9 | NW 3 |
— | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 59 | 17 | — | 72 | 28 | 6 | 57 | 2 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 190 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 145 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 26 | 37 | 147 | 26 | 48 | 145 | 0 | 0 | 147 | 23 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Latest Updates
Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











