Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, right now and for the next week or so, it’s a bit of a struggle. The water’s sitting at a warmer-than-average 60°F, about a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but the waves are stubborn. A persistent cross-offshore breeze from the NW is keeping the surface clean, but the swell is weak and short-period for days. The combined wave energy is decent, hovering around the 900 to 1400 mark, but the period is just too short to get anything with proper shape. Saturday 27th and Monday 28th of July offer the same story: small 4ft SW swell, but with periods barely hitting 18 seconds, it’s all a bit of a washing machine. This place is exposed to the SW, which is the right direction, but it’s just not delivering the goods.

We get a bit of a wake-up call on Wednesday 30th July. The swell direction swings to the WNW, and by the afternoon we’re looking at 8ft of short-period stuff. That’s getting too big for beginners for sure, and with an 8-second period, it’s going to pitch fast and close out. For the experts only, and honestly, it’s more of a messy, powerful shorebreak than a clean wave. The kite crew might fancy it.

The real standout, and I mean the only one worth circling on your calendar, lands on Sunday, 2nd August. For the morning we’ve got a solid 8ft NW groundswell with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy hits a meaty 2134. The wind is a gentle breeze from the WNW, keeping it cross-off and clean. This is the good stuff. The swell direction matches the optimum, and the size is proper – strong intermediate to expert territory. It’s gonna be powerful, with long lulls between sets, making paddling out a bit easier. This is the session.

After that, things go downhill fast. By Monday 3rd August, the wind swings onshore from the SSE, and from there it’s a long, bleak run of poor conditions. From the 4th of August right through to the 9th, it’s almost entirely onshore winds, choppy water, and weak, messy swell. That’s five or six straight days with no real surf to speak of. The break is fairly consistent normally, but a blank run like this can happen. Keep your eye on the forecasts though – it’s never poor for long around here.

Rusty.

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