Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey, Rusty here. Drakes Estero is a beach-and-river mix that faces southwest, so it’s all about swell direction lining up right. Water temp is 56°F, dead average for the time of year – no surprises there.

The first session worth paddling for is Friday afternoon (July 3rd). Swell is 2ft from the SW, super long 16-second period, light cross-off breeze, and moderate energy (412). For a beginner-friendly clean wave, that’s a pretty sweet start.

Saturday (4th) is mostly a wash – onshore wind in the morning, and afternoon brings tiny 2ft waves with a crossing ripple. Sunday (5th) morning is poor, but the afternoon cleans up with 2ft SW groundswell at 18 seconds and a light cross-off – energy is moderate (475). Nice little window.

Monday (6th) morning is the real gem. You’ve got 3ft from the SW, 16-second groundswell, clean cross-off breeze, and energy climbing into strong territory (565). Crowds are possible here, but it’s a Monday morning – you’ll have room to move. That long period will draw lines through the beach break with real shape. This is your best bet of the whole 16 days.

From Tuesday (7th) the energy spikes but the quality drops. Wednesday (8th) afternoon hits 8ft from the WNW with a short 8-second period and a strong breeze. That’s a lot of water moving fast, but it’s lumpy and wind-chopped – better for kites than paddle boards.

Thursday (9th) and Friday (10th) stay big – 5ft to 8ft – but period stays short (9 seconds) and the wind is fresh. Energy is strong but the ride will be bumpy.

Saturday (11th) afternoon offers a slight glimmer: 6ft from the NW at 9 seconds, light cross breeze, energy over 1000. Still short-period, but if the tide lines up you might grab a few.

Sunday (12th) and Monday (13th) settle into 4ft–5ft range, 9-second period, moderate energy. Monday morning has a light offshore cross-off – decent for a fun longboard session.

Then it goes flat and funky from Tuesday (14th) onward. Swell drops under 3ft, and the period either goes tiny or super long with no size.

The second week’s best bet is Saturday (18th) morning: 6ft from the WNW, 8-second period, light wind, strong energy (970). Still short period, but the wind’s right and there’s enough push to make it work if you’re keen.

The call is Monday 6th July morning – that’s the one to pencil in. Clean, waist-high groundswell, light wind, and real energy behind it. After that, Saturday 18th morning is the only other hopeful window, but it’s less certain.

Rusty.

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