Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 am 02 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
12.4° C
1.7° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 2 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,764 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period with NW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 2AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 2.3m and 10s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 13s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 10s
Best Surf 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 10s
Most Powerful 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, grab a coffee and listen up. This is Rusty, and here’s the outlook for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.

Drakes Estero is a beach and river mouth setup, and we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag on the way. The water’s running a bit colder than normal for this time of year, coming in at 54°, which is a solid 3° below average. Not a shocker but you’ll want the thick rubber.

The action kicks off now, the morning of Sunday, 2nd August. We’ve got some clean, chest-high swell rolling in from the WNW at around 7 ft, period a decent 9 seconds. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze from the NW, keeping things tidy. Combined energy is solid at 924 – there’s some proper push in the water. This is a good, fun session for a medium-experience crew. The afternoon, however, gets a bit dicey as the wind picks up to 30 km/h from the NW, making it cross-off but bumpy. The swell bumps up slightly to 8 ft, but the energy climbs to 1078. It’ll be a bit of a wrestle, so morning is your window.

Monday 3rd August looks better for a glassy window. The morning is a write-off with onshore wind, but the afternoon goes glassy. Wind from the WSW at only 5 km/h, swell still a very clean 5 ft from the WNW at a 10-second interval. That’s a great little afternoon session with hardly a breath of wind. Energy is moderate at 565, so it will be fun but not a powerhouse.

We then hit a big quiet spell from Tuesday 4th August through to the end of the first week. The swell drops off to barely 3 ft, and the wind is onshore or just crossed up. By Friday 7th, we see tiny waves (1-2 ft) but note that period suddenly jumps to 18-19 seconds from the SW. That’s a long-period groundswell, but it’s so small it’s barely breaking. The energy reading is very low (205-343), so honestly, this stretch is a dud. You’re looking at 4-5 days with no real, rideable surf. A classic gap.

Now, hold onto your board. Sunday 9th August morning shows a big spike. The combined energy rockets to 2409 as a solid 8 ft NW swell rolls in at 10 seconds. The wind is light and cross-shore from the W, so the setup is questionable – that’s a lot of water moving with a cross-breeze to mess it up. This is big for this spot, over 8 ft, so strictly for experienced surfers who know the rip currents. It might be a wild, powerful day, but not the cleanest.

From Monday 10th August through to the middle of the month, we settle into a steady run of waist-to-chest high WNW swell (4 ft to 6 ft) with clean, cross-offshore winds from the WNW. The consistency picks up. Monday 10th is crossed up in the morning but cleans up in the afternoon. The highlight of this whole stretch looks like Thursday 13th August morning: a clean 5 ft from the WNW with light cross-offshore winds. Energy is 553 – good, solid, fun waves. The afternoon of the 13th is a no-go with a 40 km/h NW gale blowing.

Friday 14th August morning is another standout: 4 ft from the WNW, light cross-offshore wind (15 km/h), energy of 530. Clean, punchy, and fun for a range of abilities. Crowds are “sometimes” an issue here, so you might have company but nothing crazy.

The second week (from around 15th August onwards) is all about long-period SW groundswell (15-17 seconds), but the size is small (2-3 ft). The energy readings are moderate (350-626), but that long period means the waves will be very clean, well-shaped, and long-lined. The wind stays light and cross-off or cross-shore on most days. This is a tricky call – it won’t be big, but it could be remarkably clean and playful on a longer board. Keep an eye on it.

The absolute best bet for this whole outlook is the morning of Sunday 2nd August for the best combination of size and cleanliness, and if you miss that, the morning of Friday 14th August for the most reliable, clean, fun-size waves.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Sun afternoon, calm by Mon afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
Friday
7
Saturday
8
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
!
1
3
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
2
2
1
2
1
2
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.1
WNW
9
2.3
WNW
9
3
NW
10
1.8
WNW
10
1.6
WNW
10
1.3
WNW
9
1.1
WNW
9
1.1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
0.9
WNW
10
0.9
WNW
9
0.8
WNW
9
0.5
SW
13
0.5
SW
13
0.4
SW
18
0.4
SW
18
0.5
SW
19
1.4
WNW
7
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
SSW
17
2.2
WNW
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
799
943
1764
627
461
261
190
173
125
151
133
99
84
84
82
85
181
207
204
202
1030
Wind (km/h)
15
NW
30
NW
15
NW
10
S
5
WSW
10
S
15
SSE
10
SSW
10
SSE
15
S
10
W
5
SSW
5
SW
15
NW
10
NW
10
W
25
WNW
10
WNW
5
SW
10
WNW
5
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
glassy
on
on
on
on
on
cross
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
glassy
High Tide
3:42PM1.55m
3:17AM1.37m
4:12PM1.62m
4:19AM1.23m
4:48PM1.68m
5:43AM1.11m
5:31PM1.74m
7:31AM1.07m
6:23PM1.79m
9:12AM1.13m
7:24PM1.84m
10:25AM1.23m
8:28PM1.90m
Low Tide
9:23AM0.09m
9:58PM0.55m
9:56AM0.25m
10:54PM0.46m
10:32AM0.43m
11:58PM0.36m
11:16AM0.61m
1:10AM0.24m
12:12PM0.78m
2:23AM0.11m
1:27PM0.90m
3:30AM-0.03m
2:48PM0.94m
4:30AM-0.16m
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:15
6:16
6:16
6:16
6:18
6:18
6:20
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:20
8:19
8:17
8:16
8:15
8:14
8:13
 mm
Temp °C
15
15
14
16
16
13
16
16
14
16
15
14
16
16
12
14
14
12
15
15
13
Feels °C
13
10
9
15
16
12
14
14
14
15
13
14
16
15
10
13
12
8
14
14
11
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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