Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 4 pm 28 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
14.6° C
0.9° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,930 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 8s period with NW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.5m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.9m and 14s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8AM (Fri 31st Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 8s
Best Surf11PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Most Powerful 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at Drakes Estero.

Right off the bat, we’re looking at a pretty long stretch of dicey conditions. The surf is there, but the wind is a constant battle. For the first week, it’s a story of strong, gusty cross-offshore winds from the NW. While that cross-off direction can sometimes clean a wave face, the speeds are just too high – we’re talking 18 to 25 mph most days – making for a bumpy, blown-out ride. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing weird there.

Tuesday the 28th kicks it off with a clean 4ft SW swell rolling in with a long 18-second period. There’s a heap of energy behind it (1301), but that 25 mph NW wind is going to make it a battle. It’s a beginner spot, but this won’t be a beginner day.

Wednesday the 29th is a real mixed bag. The morning hangs onto a similar 4ft SW swell with 16-second period and 18 mph NW wind. Then the afternoon sees a jump to a short-period 8ft WNW windswell, and the wind kicks back up to 25 mph. That’s a lot of chunky, messy energy.

The whole first week follows this same tired script: decent swell heights, but always with that strong NW wind ruining the party. Thursday the 30th, Friday the 31st, Saturday the 1st of August – it’s all the same story. By Saturday afternoon, we’re looking at a 10ft WNW swell with 31 mph winds. At that point, this beach/river mouth setup is way beyond gnarly and honestly, it’s looking more like a spot for the kite surfers than a paddle surfer.

We finally get a break in the wind on Monday the 3rd of August. The morning is still iffy with a 6ft WNW swell and a SSE onshore breeze, but the afternoon... that’s the standout. The wind drops to a glassy 3 mph from the west, and we get a clean 5ft WNW swell. This is the best window we’ve got – small but clean waves with no wind chop.

After that little taste, things drop off fast. From Tuesday the 4th through the end of the outlook, the swell runs out of steam. We’re looking at tiny waves, below 3ft, with a mix of onshore and light cross-off winds. There’s a little blip on the 9th of August with a 5ft WNW swell, but it’s back to moderate breezes and marginal conditions.

So there it is. A solid week of wind-affected surf, one golden glassy session on the 3rd of August, and then a long, quiet stretch. If you’ve got to go, make that Monday afternoon your target.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Tue night, light winds from the NNW by Fri morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sat afternoon, light winds from the NNW by Sun night).

Tue
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
3
2
!
1
3
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
SW
18
1.1
SW
17
1.1
SW
16
2.5
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
0.9
SSW
16
2.4
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
0.9
SSW
14
0.9
SSW
14
1.9
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
3
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
9
2.2
WNW
9
2.5
WNW
9
3
NW
10
1.8
WNW
10
1.6
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
781
663
617
740
545
392
663
476
293
343
447
390
1276
1037
866
1104
1930
603
424
286
Wind (km/h)
40
NW
30
NW
30
NW
40
NW
30
NW
30
NW
40
NW
30
NW
25
NW
35
NW
30
NW
30
NW
50
NW
35
NW
20
NW
30
NW
20
NW
15
SSE
5
W
5
S
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
glassy
on
High Tide
11:46PM1.76m
1:56PM1.36m
00:25AM1.74m
2:22PM1.39m
1:03AM1.69m
2:48PM1.44m
1:43AM1.61m
3:14PM1.49m
2:27AM1.51m
3:42PM1.55m
3:17AM1.37m
4:12PM1.62m
4:19AM1.23m
Low Tide
6:34PM0.87m
7:24AM-0.12m
7:11PM0.82m
7:54AM-0.12m
7:47PM0.77m
8:23AM-0.09m
8:26PM0.70m
8:52AM-0.02m
9:09PM0.63m
9:23AM0.09m
9:58PM0.55m
9:56AM0.25m
10:54PM0.46m
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:11
6:11
6:13
6:13
6:15
6:16
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:23
8:23
8:22
8:22
8:21
8:20
8:19
 mm
Temp °C
16
15
15
15
14
15
15
14
15
15
14
16
17
15
15
16
15
17
16
14
Feels °C
10
7
10
9
7
10
9
6
11
10
7
12
11
7
12
11
10
15
15
13
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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