
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 17 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 7s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 8s period, WNW swell with 782 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 7s period with NW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 7s period with a secondary swell of 1.2m and 7s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 16s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 2PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 7s |
| Best Surf | 8AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 7s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag at Drakes Estero. The first few days will be a paddling grind, but the middle of the period has a standout window.
The week starts off Thursday July 16th and Friday 17th with a lot of cross-off wind from the Northwest, blowing 15 to 25 mph. You’ll see some chest-high to head-high swell (5 ft to 8 ft) from the WNW, but the period is short (7 to 8 seconds), so the waves will be a bit lumpy and chunky. The combined energy readings are moderate, but it’s not clean enough to get excited about. The water temperature is about average for the time of year at 57°.
The first real standout happens Saturday morning July 18th. The wind eases to a gentle breeze from the WNW, and we get a clean, cross-off 2 ft swell from the West with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s groundswell, and it’s going to offer some proper shaped lines with long gaps between sets. The combined energy is moderate, but the quality is the key here. The break is a beach/river mouth setup, so watch for the long-period swell to bend around the sandbars.
Saturday afternoon sees a little more energy but the period jumps to 18 seconds from the SW. The waves stay small (2 ft), but the wind is still clean. The best bet is to grab the morning session.
Sunday July 19th is another good option. The morning has light cross-shore wind from the West, with a 2 ft swell from the SW at 16 seconds. Not big, but the period is long and the surface is super clean. Sunday afternoon winds are light and the swell pushes to 3 ft from the SW at 17 seconds. The surf is very small, but the quality is there for a log or a fish.
The middle of the week (Monday July 20th through Thursday July 23rd) is tricky. The wind is light but often cross-shore, and the swell is a mix of small (2 ft to 4 ft) and short period (8 to 14 seconds). The wave energy is moderate, but the conditions are marginal. The best of this stretch is about 4 ft to 4 ft from the SSW on Monday morning and Tuesday morning, but with cross-shore wind and an onshore flow on Tuesday, it’s not a standout.
Friday July 24th and Saturday July 25th see a massive jump in combined energy, but the swell is small (2 ft to 3 ft) with a very long period (21 to 24 seconds) from the SW. The wind is a strong cross-off from the NW, so the surface is clean, but the wave height is tiny. The long period will make for some well-shaped, clean lines, but it’s going to be a patient wait for the sets.
The real whale shows up on Sunday July 26th, but it’s a monster. The afternoon shows a 10 ft swell from the WNW with 8 seconds period and lots of energy. The wind is a fresh breeze from the NW, cleaning things up. This is a big one for the region, but the break is a beach/river mouth setup, and at that size, it’s going to be a washing machine. This is for experts only, and even then, it’s a serious paddle. The combined energy is very strong, but the short period means it’s going to be a powerful, messy wall of water. The last few days of the month (July 27th to 31st) are back to small, clean lines with 3 ft to 5 ft swells from the SW, but the wind is often strong (15 to 28 mph) and cross-off, making it hard to get a good wave.
The best two sessions are Saturday July 18th morning for the clean, long-period groundswell, and Sunday July 19th afternoon for the glassy, clean little waves. For bigger windows, the long-period swells on July 24th and 25th offer clean, small lines, but the real power day (July 26th) is a beast for experts only.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Thu afternoon, light winds from the NW by Sat morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 20°C on Tue morning, min 11°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | W 16 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | S 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | S 12 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
387 | 693 | 545 | 315 | 372 | 254 | 251 | 314 | 239 | 211 | 434 | 629 | 597 | 355 | 390 | 461 | 270 | 220 | 245 | 236 | 264 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | glassy | on | glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:15PM1.53m | 2:09AM1.79m | 3:55PM1.58m | 3:04AM1.60m | 4:34PM1.61m | 4:03AM1.40m | 5:14PM1.64m | 5:13AM1.21m | 5:54PM1.65m | 6:40AM1.08m | 6:36PM1.66m | 8:23AM1.06m | 7:21PM1.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:44AM-0.35m | 8:50PM0.65m | 9:27AM-0.22m | 9:51PM0.59m | 10:08AM-0.05m | 10:54PM0.53m | 10:50AM0.15m | 00:01AM0.46m | 11:34AM0.37m | 1:11AM0.38m | 12:24PM0.58m | 2:19AM0.28m | 1:23PM0.75m | 3:21AM0.19m | |||||||
6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | |
— | 8:32 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:29 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | W 18 | W 17 | W 17 | W 16 | WNW 7 | W 16 | W 16 | WNW 8 | SW 17 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | S 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | S 12 | S 10 | S 8 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 |
124 | 124 | 159 | 217 | 215 | 254 | 134 | 248 | 239 | 149 | 434 | 629 | 597 | 355 | 390 | 461 | 270 | 190 | 116 | 236 | 264 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 19 | W 19 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 14 | W 16 | SW 18 | WNW 10 | SW 16 | W 15 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | NW 8 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | S 8 | S 7 |
116 | 114 | 77 | 130 | 74 | 72 | 251 | 314 | 37 | 211 | 159 | 123 | 102 | 90 | 72 | 57 | 128 | 220 | 245 | 63 | 27 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 13 | SW 16 | W 15 | S 11 | W 14 | W 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WNW 13 | NW 9 | NW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 11 | WNW 11 |
27 | 26 | 54 | 74 | 122 | 49 | 190 | 44 | 93 | 170 | 22 | 106 | 106 | 161 | 91 | 57 | 37 | 33 | 24 | 12 | 49 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | — | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | — | WNW 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 4 | WNW 6 |
387 | 693 | 545 | 315 | 372 | 209 | — | 127 | 131 | — | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 105 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 145 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 145 | 32 | 0 | 145 | 26 | 48 | 0 | 23 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 147 | 48 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










