Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Drakes Estero. Gotta be honest, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, and we’ve got a long stretch of nothing special to get through before any real hope shows up.

Right now, the outlook starts off pretty flat and unexciting. Monday the 6th has a tiny 2ft swell from the SW, but it’s a decent 21-second period groundswell, so there’s a bit of energy in the water (655). The wind is a moderate cross-off, so it’s clean, but it’s only really a beginner wave. The water is sitting at 57°, which is about average for the time of year. That’s about as good as it gets for the first week, I’m afraid.

From Tuesday the 7th right through to Sunday the 13th, we’re looking at a real grind. The swell bumps up a bit, especially Wednesday afternoon the 8th when we see a 8ft WNW swell, but the period drops to a short, weak 7 seconds. The wind is a fresh to strong cross-off, which keeps it clean, but the wave quality is pretty poor. The combined energy readings are decent (between 849 and 1279), but the short-period windswell just won’t hold shape. It’s going to be lumpy and messy. Anything over 8ft on Thursday the 9th afternoon is heading into expert-only territory, and with that cross-off wind, it’ll be a battle. Honestly, for a beach/river setup, this looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Things go downhill into the second week. From Monday the 14th through to Thursday the 17th morning, the swell is dropping, the period is tiny (6-7 seconds), and the wind is howling. The score is a flat zero – poor surf conditions. It’s a real blank run. But don’t lose hope just yet.

The first real standout comes on Friday the 17th. The afternoon session shows a 7ft WNW swell with a 8-second period, and the wind drops to a light 9 mph cross-off from the WNW. That’s a clean setup. The combined energy is a solid 948, and the guidance says to expect very good surf conditions. This is the one to circle for the second week; it’s got size and shape.

Then, for the long-range punters, keep an eye on Sunday the 19th afternoon. The swell drops to 2ft, but it’s a pure 17-second SW groundswell. The wind is light and cross-off. It’s a small wave, but with that long period, it’ll be glassy and lined up. The energy is 507 – not huge, but the quality will be there. The best of the small stuff.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a washout. The best on offer is Friday the 17th afternoon for some solid, clean waves, and maybe a sneaky glassy small-wave session on Sunday the 19th afternoon.

Rusty.

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