Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let's be real with you about the next couple of weeks. It's not going to be a wild ride, but there are a couple of moments worth keeping an eye on.

We’re starting off with Drakes Estero (Drakes-Estero) in a waiting game. The water temp is about 58°F, which is normal for this time of year, nothing weird there. The first few days are pretty marginal. Saturday the 8th has some small, long-period swell pushing in from the SSW at about 2ft, but the wind is all over the place and the energy is weak. It's a bit of a tease, honestly. We see the swell pick up on Sunday morning to about 6ft from the WNW, but the period drops and the energy is only moderate. It’s clean, but the power just isn't there to make it special.

The middle of the week sees the size drop but the wind turns onshore, making things a mess. Wednesday and Thursday are write-offs. The swell is weak and the onshore flow will chop it all up. A classic case of “don’t bother”.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. As we move into the second week, the wind finally clears out, and we get a proper window. On Saturday the 16th, we've got a 4ft SW groundswell with a long 15-second period. The energy is building, and with light offshore and cross-offshore winds predicted, it's going to be clean. This looks like the standout of the whole period. A long-period swell like that will love a spot like this. It’s not huge, but it'll be glassy and have some push to it.

The other highlight, and this is one to keep on the radar for 7 days out, is Wednesday the 19th. The swell is due to build through the day, hitting nearly 7ft from the WNW in the afternoon. The energy jumps up to a strong level. The winds are cross-offshore and moderate, so it should hold shape. That size is getting into the fun zone, but remember, anything over 8ft is expert territory. This is right on the cusp, so it could be a great session for the more experienced crew. Don't expect the place to be empty, because a clean 6ft+ day will bring people out.

The weekend after that (the 22nd and 23rd) fades out. The period drops to a short, crumbly 7-8 seconds on Saturday with fresh winds, making it poor. Sunday cleans up a bit with a 4ft WNW swell and a light offshore breeze, so there might be a small, clean wave for the logs, but the energy is weak.

So, to wrap it up: don't waste your time this week. Wait for the glassy dawny on Saturday the 16th for the cleanest waves, and keep an eye on Wednesday the 19th for some real power. The long-range calls are promising, but they're just that – promising. We'll see how it fills in.

Rusty out.

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