Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 24 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 26 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 20s period, SW swell with 843 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.1m 20s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 8PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 5AM (Sun 26th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 20s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks. We’re focusing on one spot, and it’s going to be a bit of a mixed bag, so patience is key.
Look, the first week is a bit of a grind. We’ve got small, weak swell in the water, and the wind is a persistent cross-offshore breeze from the NW. It’s not terrible, but it’s not setting the world on fire either. The waves on offer are small, around 2 ft to 4 ft, and the energy is all over the place, from weak (333) up to moderate (1221). The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year. Expect a lot of reports of "marginal" conditions. It’s a waiting game, but the wind is at least keeping the surface clean.
The real standout of the whole forecast is Sunday, August 2nd. The morning is going to be the pick of the bunch. We’ve got a solid 6 ft swell from the WNW, but it’s a short-period, windswell-type wave (8 seconds). The wind is a light breeze from the WNW, which is cross-offshore, so the surface will be clean. The energy is moderate (864). It’s a great setup for a beginner-friendly beach break like this. The afternoon sees the swell bump up to 8 ft, which is getting into the "too big for beginners" territory, but still clean. This is the on button.
Now, be careful heading into the next week. Monday, August 3rd, things get messy. We get onshore wind from the SSE, and the swell jumps to over 10 ft. That’s expert-only territory, and the wind is all wrong for it. It’s going to be a washing machine. A few days later, on Thursday, August 6th, the afternoon looks promising again with a 7 ft swell from the WNW and a light cross-offshore breeze for clean conditions. The energy is moderate (522), and it’s a solid setup.
The second week is a bit of a mixed bag of moderate to small swell and onshore winds. It’s not a total write-off, but you’ll need to pick your windows. The patterns are there, but it’s a lot less certain. Keep an eye on the charts.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri morning, min 13°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NW on Mon morning, strong winds from the NW by Tue night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Thu 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 200 | 329 | 448 | 661 | 389 | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 614 | 522 | 702 | 791 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 560 | 527 | 590 | 559 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:09PM1.68m | 11:01AM1.21m | 8:56PM1.70m | 11:50AM1.27m | 9:43PM1.72m | 12:28PM1.31m | 10:26PM1.75m | 1:00PM1.33m | 11:07PM1.76m | 1:30PM1.34m | 11:46PM1.76m | 1:56PM1.36m | 00:25AM1.74m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:30PM0.87m | 4:15AM0.10m | 3:34PM0.94m | 5:01AM0.03m | 4:29PM0.95m | 5:42AM-0.03m | 5:16PM0.94m | 6:19AM-0.08m | 5:57PM0.91m | 6:53AM-0.11m | 6:34PM0.87m | 7:24AM-0.12m | 7:11PM0.82m | |||||||
 |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | 8:29 | — | — | 8:28 | — | — | 8:27 | — | — | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:23 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 11 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 |
| kJ | 200 | 246 | 249 | 201 | 173 | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 614 | 522 | 702 | 791 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 560 | 527 | 527 | 441 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SSW 10 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | S 16 |
| kJ | 125 | 329 | 448 | 661 | 389 | 113 | 57 | 56 | 35 | 36 | 42 | 39 | 38 | 89 | 35 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 193 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 7 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | S 11 | S 10 | SW 15 | S 10 | SW 21 | NW 10 | — | SW 12 | S 10 | — | SW 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | — |
| kJ | 8 | 49 | 46 | 43 | 25 | 25 | 37 | 18 | 33 | 17 | 117 | 4 | — | 37 | 2 | — | 5 | 11 | 11 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 4 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | NW 7 | WNW 7 | NW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | 76 | 67 | 35 | 116 | 114 | 61 | 134 | 123 | 87 | 197 | 176 | 145 | 392 | 362 | 311 | 761 | 382 | 310 | 590 | 559 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 144 | 32 | 48 | 144 | 59 | 48 | 144 | 32 | 48 | 144 | 59 | 48 | 144 | 48 | 48 | 144 | 48 | 48 | 144 | 32 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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