Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 pm 28 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
14.3° C
0.5° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,970 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 10s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)11PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Best Surf11PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Most Powerful 5AM (Mon 3rd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Drakes Estero are a real mixed bag. We’ve got some size coming, but the wind is gonna be a constant battle. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first week is all about the wind. It’s gonna be blowing from the northwest, which is a cross-offshore breeze here, so the waves will be clean. But that wind is strong, really strong. We’re talking 18 to 25 mph, which is howling. That’s going to make the surface clean but the paddle out a real grind. The swell is all over the place. On the 29th, we start with a 4 ft SSW groundswell with a 16-second period, that’s proper energy (962 combined energy) – but the wind is just too much to make it enjoyable. The afternoons that week see an 8 ft WNW windswell with a short 8-second period, which is just a bumpy, choppy mess. The combined energy jumps to 1365 but it’s not the good kind.

Things get interesting on Sunday the 2nd of August. The morning brings a solid 10 ft NW swell with a 9-second period, and the wind finally drops to a moderate 12 mph. The data says the swell might be too big for this break, but for a confident surfer, that’s a lot of water moving. The combined energy is a massive 2244. That’s a standout morning, but it’s a beast. It’s not for the faint of heart.

Monday the 3rd of August is the real gem. The afternoon sees a 6 ft WNW swell, still a 10-second period, but the wind switches to a light 9 mph cross-offshore from the WNW. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions,” and with 614 combined energy, this is the cleanest, most manageable window we’ve got. That’s the session to aim for.

After that, the swell drops off a cliff. From the 4th through the 6th, we’re under 3 ft with onshore winds – it’s flat and poor. A little bump comes back on the 7th and 8th with 4 ft to 6 ft swells, but the wind is back up to 12-15 mph, so it’s still a battle. The 9th of August morning has a light 4 ft WNW swell with light 6 mph winds, making for a clean session, but the energy is only 364, so it’s small. The 10th and 11th are a washout with tiny, long-period swells from the SSW and SW (14-18 seconds) that just don’t have the height to do anything.

The second week fizzles out. The 12th and 13th have some weak 2 ft to 3 ft SW groundswells with very long periods (17-18 seconds), but the energy is low and the winds are either light or from the SSE. It’s a long wait for a wave that might not even break properly.

So, here’s the call: Sunday the 2nd of August morning for the big-wave crew who want a challenge, and Monday the 3rd of August afternoon as the best all-round session for anyone who wants clean, solid waves without getting blown off the water. The rest is wind slop or flat spells. Stay patient.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Tue night, light winds from the NW by Fri morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat afternoon, min 13°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sat afternoon, light winds from the NNW by Sun night).

Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
0
1
!
2
3
1
3
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
SW
17
1.1
SW
16
2.5
WNW
8
1
SSW
16
0.9
SSW
16
2.5
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
0.9
SSW
14
1.9
WNW
7
1.8
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
3
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
9
3
NW
9
2.5
WNW
10
2.5
WNW
10
1.9
WNW
10
1.7
WNW
10
1.6
WNW
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
663
617
673
519
436
691
464
293
372
412
422
1442
1084
1331
1205
1341
711
533
470
Wind (km/h)
30
NW
30
NW
40
NW
30
NW
25
NW
40
NW
30
NW
20
NW
35
NW
30
NW
25
NW
50
NW
40
NW
20
NW
35
NW
20
NW
10
SSE
15
WNW
10
S
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
cross-off
on
High Tide
11:46PM1.76m
1:56PM1.36m
00:25AM1.74m
2:22PM1.39m
1:03AM1.69m
2:48PM1.44m
1:43AM1.61m
3:14PM1.49m
2:27AM1.51m
3:42PM1.55m
3:17AM1.37m
4:12PM1.62m
4:19AM1.23m
Low Tide
7:24AM-0.12m
7:11PM0.82m
7:54AM-0.12m
7:47PM0.77m
8:23AM-0.09m
8:26PM0.70m
8:52AM-0.02m
9:09PM0.63m
9:23AM0.09m
9:58PM0.55m
9:56AM0.25m
10:54PM0.46m
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:11
6:11
6:13
6:13
6:15
6:16
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:23
8:23
8:22
8:22
8:21
8:20
8:19
 mm
Temp °C
15
15
15
14
15
16
14
15
15
14
16
17
15
15
15
14
16
16
13
Feels °C
8
10
9
6
11
9
6
11
10
7
12
9
7
12
10
8
15
15
11
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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