Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, gang, Rusty here. Let’s talk about this stretch of coast for the next 16 days. It’s a mixed bag, but there are a couple of sessions worth setting the alarm for.

We’re looking at Drakes Estero for the whole run. The action kicks off on Tuesday morning, July 21st, with a small 3ft swell from the southwest. The water is running about 56°, which is totally normal for this time of year – no surprises there. The energy in the water is moderate (420), but the wind is onshore, and the call is poor, so don’t even bother.

The next few days are a grind. Wednesday the 22nd tries to push to 5ft, but that onshore wind just trashes it. Thursday and Friday stay small, with a lot of wind from the northwest. The swell period is long (14 seconds on Thursday), which is a proper groundswell, but it’s not big enough to handle the chop. The wind turns cross-off through the weekend, keeping the surface clean, but the swell is tiny – 2ft to 3ft – and the energy is moderate (689 to 956). It’s so close to being good, but it’s not.

The real standouts don’t appear until the second week. The first one to mark on your calendar is Friday morning, July 31st. The wind goes glassy, just a light breeze from the southwest, and the swell jumps to a solid 7ft from the northwest. That’s a serious size, so it’s for experts only. The energy is strong (1113), and while the period is short at 8 seconds, that glassy wind will make it clean. The call is excellent for experienced surfers. This is the best of the run.

The other one to watch is Monday morning, August 3rd. The swell is 7ft again from the west-northwest, with a moderate 7-second period. The wind is cross-off from the WNW, keeping it clean. The energy is moderate (515), but it’s a solid, surfable size. This one is more for the intermediate crew who want a bit of power without the big-wave stuff.

There’s a big gap in the middle. After the 25th, the surf stays small and weak until the 31st. That’s a solid 5-day stretch of nothing worth paddling out for. Don’t even look at it until that last Friday.

One thing to note: the spot is a beach and river mouth setup, and it’s exposed to the southwest. The optimum swell direction is southwest, so when that lines up like it does early on, the potential is there. But the wind just hasn’t played ball until the very end.

For the kite crowd, the wind picks up strong on the 26th and 27th (28-31 mph from the NW), and the swell is small. If you’re into that, it might be worth a look, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a skip.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a washout. The best window is Friday morning, July 31st – glassy conditions, solid swell, expert only. The secondary window is Monday morning, August 3rd – clean, solid, intermediate-friendly. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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