Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Drakes Estero.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next few days are a bit of a slow cooker. We’ve got a *little* bit of swell around, but it’s mostly small and the conditions are fighting us. The water temp is sitting at 55°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Saturday morning is a write-off – onshore wind, poor surf. That afternoon though, the first decent window appears. We see a bump of 2 ft from the SW with a juicy long period of 19 seconds, and the wind swings cross-offshore from the WNW. That’s going to be clean, but the size is tiny. The combined energy is solid though, at (457), so there’s push in the water, just not much height. This is more of a longboard or a foiling prospect.

Sunday and Monday stay small and messy with cross or cross-on winds. Not really worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate for a splash.

Now, Tuesday the 8th through Thursday the 10th is where this forecast gets interesting, but it comes with a big caveat. We get a proper pulse of NW groundswell. Tuesday morning the 8th shows 7 ft from the NW, but with a short period of 8 seconds – that’s windswell, not the cleanest. The wind is cross-off though, and the energy is pumping at (1571). By Wednesday morning the 9th, we’re looking at 7 ft again, still short period, but by Thursday afternoon the 9th, the model is predicting 10 ft from the WNW. The combined energy hits (1524). That is serious, heavy water.

Here’s the standout: Thursday afternoon, July 9th. The swell is 10 ft from the WNW. That’s expert-only territory. It’s too big for beginners and even intermediate surfers will be in over their head. The wind is a strong cross-off from the NW, which will keep the faces clean, but at that size, Drakes Estero is going to be a washing machine. This is a spot for tow-ins and chargers only. If you’re not an expert, stay on the beach and watch. The energy is massive.

Friday the 10th drops back to a more manageable 6 ft from the WNW, but still with that short period. The wind stays cross-off, so the surf will be clean, but the quality is marginal due to the shorter period. It’ll be fat and walled up in sections.

We then hit a lull. Saturday the 11th through to Tuesday the 15th is mostly small, onshore, or just poor conditions with nothing exciting. A few 2 ft days with cross-off wind, but not enough push to get excited about.

Finally, Wednesday afternoon, July 15th brings a new pulse. We get 5 ft from the WNW with an 8-second period, but the real treat is the wind – cross-off from the WNW and glassy. The combined energy is solid at (506). This is a far more user-friendly size. It’s still got some short-period chunkiness, but for a fun, punchy afternoon session on a beach break or a sandbar, this looks like the best bet of the second week. It’s clean and it’s got enough grunt for a high-performance shortboard.

After that, Thursday the 16th through to the 19th is back to knee-to-waist high dribble with cross-off winds but very little power (energy in the 400-700 range). The waves will be there, but you’ll be working for every turn.

Best on offer: Thursday afternoon, July 9th (10 ft WNW, expert only) and Wednesday afternoon, July 15th (5 ft WNW, clean, good all-rounder). The big swell is the eye-catcher, but the smaller, cleaner day is the one to book off work for if you want a fun session without the risk.

Rusty

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