Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, this is a tough run. We’ve got a long stretch of small, onshore, and weak conditions ahead. The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The first few days are a write-off for a proper paddle. Sunday the 9th through Tuesday the 11th see a bit of waist-high WNW swell in the 4ft to 5ft range, but the wind is all wrong – cross and onshore – leaving it lumpy and weak. The energy is moderate, around 432 to 607 (combined energy of all swells directed here), but it just isn’t coming together. Tuesday afternoon the 11th looks like the best of a bad bunch with a light cross-off breeze and a clean 4ft, but it’s still pretty small.

Then we hit a real dry spell. From Wednesday the 12th right through to Sunday the 16th, it’s mostly poor surf with onshore winds and tiny, weak swell. A few of those days show some long-period groundswell (15-18 seconds), but it’s coming in at only 2ft to 3ft – that’s knee-high at best. The energy is moderate but the size just isn’t there for a proper ride.

Now, there’s a flicker of hope. On Sunday the 16th afternoon, we see a clean, cross-off breeze with a 3ft SW groundswell at 15 seconds. The energy is solid (511), and it’ll be tidy, but it’s still small. That’s the first real window for a glassy session if you’re on a log.

The second week is a mixed bag, but nothing to write home about until the very end. Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th stay marginal with clean but tiny surf. Wednesday the 19th afternoon brings a sudden spike in size – 7ft from the WNW but with a short, choppy 7-second period and strong 22 mph cross-off winds. That’s more of a windswell mess; the energy jumps to 668, but it’s not going to be pretty. For the experienced crew, it might offer some lumpy, fast walls, but it’s not a standout.

The best call of the whole outlook? It’s gotta be Saturday the 22nd morning. We’ve got a clean, cross-off breeze, a solid 5ft of WNW swell at a short period (6 seconds), and good energy (361). It’s not a classic groundswell, but with that wind, the beach break will have some punchy, fun little waves. The afternoon sees it jump to 7ft with the same short period, which will be too bumpy and strong for most, but the morning session is the one to target.

Sunday the 23rd sees the biggest swell of the run – 8ft from the WNW on Sunday afternoon, with a massive 1064 combined energy – but the wind is cross-onshore and light, so it’ll be fat and unruly. That’s expert territory, and not super clean. The following Monday the 24th keeps that 7ft range but with onshore wind, so again, not the pick.

Overall, if you’re a beginner, stay away from the 7ft+ days, and even the smaller stuff is inconsistent and often bumpy. The best bet for a clean, fun paddle is Saturday morning the 22nd. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only real standout in a pretty flat and messy forecast.

Keep your eyes on the horizon, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty

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