Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 am 17 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.8° C
0.5° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 18 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period, W swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 21 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 13s period, SSW swell with 673 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period with W swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 1.2m and 7s. Another secondary swell of 1.4m and 7s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.4m 13s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 5PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 2PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 5AM (Sat 18th Jul)2.5ft (0.8m) 16s
Best Surf 5AM (Sat 18th Jul)2.5ft (0.8m) 16s
Most Powerful 5PM (Tue 21st Jul)4.5ft (1.4m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s check in on Drakes Estero. Right off the bat, this is a tricky forecast. We’ve got a slow start with small, clean waves, then a long stretch of very long period groundswells that will be more about the spectacle than the surf, but there are a couple of windows that’ll get you out.

From Friday the 17th, the first few days are building but not great. Friday morning has a 5ft west-northwest swell at a short 8 seconds with a moderate breeze. The combined energy is moderate at 713. The water temp is about 57°, which is normal for this time of year. Not special. Saturday morning the 18th, the swell drops to 2ft, but a 16-second period from the west shows up. That’s proper groundswell, but 2ft with that period might break too straight on this beach/river setup. It’s small, clean, and pretty. Saturday afternoon is similar: 2ft and an 18-second period from the southwest, super clean.

Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th are flat out small: 2ft waves with 15-17 second periods. Monday morning is glassy, but 2ft with that period is just a paddle.

Now, Tuesday the 21st: the swell jumps to 4ft–5ft. Period drops to 13-14 seconds, so it’s still long but much more rideable. Combined energy is moderate at 675 and 768. Wind is light and clean. This is your best bet of the first week. It’s going to be clean, a proper size, and with long period lines. You’ll get good ones. It’s fairly consistent, so it’s a go.

Wednesday the 22nd is a washout. Onshore wind and a short-period 5ft swell. Ugly. Thursday the 23rd is a bit better but still small.

Then we get into the long-range stuff. From Friday the 24th through the end of the month, the swell stays small – 2ft to 3ft – but the period goes bonkers: 18 to 24 seconds. Combined energy jumps into the 1000s – strong to very strong. That’s a reef or point break swell, not a Drakes Estero wave. The standout for this stretch is Saturday the 25th: 3ft, 21-second southwest swell under clear skies, with a combined energy of 1139. The sets will be massive and fast, but few and far between. For experts only.

Finally, Thursday the 30th afternoon has a 10ft west-northwest swell with a short 9-second period and onshore wind. That’s a kite session.

The best on offer: Tuesday the 21st is your standout. Clean, 4ft–5ft southwest groundswell with long period and light winds. For experts, Saturday the 25th offers a 3ft, 21-second southwest swell – a real challenge.

The second week is a wait-and-see. Long period swells will keep hitting, but wave quality is a gamble.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Fri afternoon, calm by Sun night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Warm (max 20°C on Tue afternoon, min 13°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light.

Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
2
3
2
1
1
2
3
2
3
3
3
3
1
0
1
2
2
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
WNW
8
0.7
W
17
0.7
W
16
0.7
W
16
0.7
SW
18
0.7
W
16
0.6
SW
16
0.8
SW
17
0.8
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.7
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
1.3
SSW
14
1.4
SSW
13
1.2
SSW
11
1.5
SSW
10
1.4
SSW
9
0.8
SSW
14
0.8
SSW
14
0.8
SSW
14
0.5
SW
26
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
292
294
254
251
314
239
170
362
302
206
248
302
572
673
370
383
268
257
264
233
329
Wind (km/h)
25
NW
30
WNW
20
WNW
10
WNW
20
WNW
15
WNW
10
W
15
WNW
5
NW
5
WSW
10
WNW
5
NW
10
NW
5
WNW
10
ESE
25
SSE
15
SSW
5
W
15
WNW
20
WNW
20
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
glassy
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
on
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
3:55PM1.58m
3:04AM1.60m
4:34PM1.61m
4:03AM1.40m
5:14PM1.64m
5:13AM1.21m
5:54PM1.65m
6:40AM1.08m
6:36PM1.66m
8:23AM1.06m
7:21PM1.67m
9:55AM1.12m
8:09PM1.68m
Low Tide
9:27AM-0.22m
9:51PM0.59m
10:08AM-0.05m
10:54PM0.53m
10:50AM0.15m
00:01AM0.46m
11:34AM0.37m
1:11AM0.38m
12:24PM0.58m
2:19AM0.28m
1:23PM0.75m
3:21AM0.19m
2:30PM0.87m
4:15AM0.10m
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<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:01
6:03
6:03
6:03
6:05
6:05
6:05
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:32
8:31
8:30
8:30
8:30
8:29
8:29
 mm
Temp °C
13
13
12
12
13
11
13
13
12
13
15
14
18
20
19
17
17
16
15
16
14
Feels °C
9
8
7
10
10
7
12
10
10
13
14
12
17
19
18
15
15
16
15
15
12
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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