
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 26 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 29 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 969 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 29 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 16s. Another secondary swell of 0.2m and 11s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 5PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.
Honestly, right now and for the next week or so, it’s a bit of a struggle. The water’s sitting at a warmer-than-average 60°F, about a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but the waves are stubborn. A persistent cross-offshore breeze from the NW is keeping the surface clean, but the swell is weak and short-period for days. The combined wave energy is decent, hovering around the 900 to 1400 mark, but the period is just too short to get anything with proper shape. Saturday 27th and Monday 28th of July offer the same story: small 4ft SW swell, but with periods barely hitting 18 seconds, it’s all a bit of a washing machine. This place is exposed to the SW, which is the right direction, but it’s just not delivering the goods.
We get a bit of a wake-up call on Wednesday 30th July. The swell direction swings to the WNW, and by the afternoon we’re looking at 8ft of short-period stuff. That’s getting too big for beginners for sure, and with an 8-second period, it’s going to pitch fast and close out. For the experts only, and honestly, it’s more of a messy, powerful shorebreak than a clean wave. The kite crew might fancy it.
The real standout, and I mean the only one worth circling on your calendar, lands on Sunday, 2nd August. For the morning we’ve got a solid 8ft NW groundswell with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy hits a meaty 2134. The wind is a gentle breeze from the WNW, keeping it cross-off and clean. This is the good stuff. The swell direction matches the optimum, and the size is proper – strong intermediate to expert territory. It’s gonna be powerful, with long lulls between sets, making paddling out a bit easier. This is the session.
After that, things go downhill fast. By Monday 3rd August, the wind swings onshore from the SSE, and from there it’s a long, bleak run of poor conditions. From the 4th of August right through to the 9th, it’s almost entirely onshore winds, choppy water, and weak, messy swell. That’s five or six straight days with no real surf to speak of. The break is fairly consistent normally, but a blank run like this can happen. Keep your eye on the forecasts though – it’s never poor for long around here.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Sun night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Tue night, moderate winds from the NW by Thu morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 614 | 442 | 702 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 560 | 617 | 779 | 620 | 465 | 788 | 545 | 515 | 443 | 407 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:50AM1.27m | 9:43PM1.72m | 12:28PM1.31m | 10:26PM1.75m | 1:00PM1.33m | 11:07PM1.76m | 1:30PM1.34m | 11:46PM1.76m | 1:56PM1.36m | 00:25AM1.74m | 2:22PM1.39m | 1:03AM1.69m | 2:48PM1.44m | 1:43AM1.61m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:29PM0.95m | 5:42AM-0.03m | 5:16PM0.94m | 6:19AM-0.08m | 5:57PM0.91m | 6:53AM-0.11m | 6:34PM0.87m | 7:24AM-0.12m | 7:11PM0.82m | 7:54AM-0.12m | 7:47PM0.77m | 8:23AM-0.09m | 8:26PM0.70m | ||||||||
6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | |
— | 8:27 | — | — | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:22 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
Feels °C | 10 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 |
763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 614 | 442 | 702 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 560 | 617 | 617 | 519 | 436 | 372 | 305 | 280 | 443 | 407 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 21 | SSW 11 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | S 18 | S 16 | SSE 14 | S 8 | SW 14 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 16 |
113 | 57 | 56 | 35 | 35 | 162 | 40 | 54 | 124 | 35 | 33 | 24 | 11 | 160 | 193 | 62 | 1 | 169 | 376 | 140 | 337 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | S 11 | S 10 | SW 15 | S 10 | SSW 11 | NW 10 | — | SSW 12 | S 10 | SSW 9 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | — | SSE 13 | SSW 15 | SW 14 | SSE 11 | W 21 |
25 | 37 | 18 | 33 | 17 | 40 | 4 | — | 56 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 48 | 69 | — | 60 | 73 | 169 | 11 | 9 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
59 | 129 | 107 | 62 | 197 | 159 | 115 | 312 | 313 | 269 | 578 | 477 | 327 | 779 | 620 | 465 | 788 | 545 | 515 | 302 | 356 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 144 | 144 | 59 | 48 | 147 | 135 | 48 | 144 | 135 | 48 | 144 | 48 | 26 | 145 | 26 | 26 | 145 | 26 | 26 | 144 | 26 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










