
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 18 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 16s period, W swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 25 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 21s period, SW swell with 763 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 16s period with W swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 0.9m 21s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 25) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 8AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 5AM (Sat 25th Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 21s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right, let's have a look at what's on the cards for Drakes Estero.
Alright, so the first week of this outlook is pretty average. We've got swell running, but it's small, mostly in the 2ft to 4ft range, and the wind is usually cross or cross-offshore, which keeps things clean enough. But the wave energy is moderate, around 400 to 600 (combined energy). It's the kind of surf that'll get you wet but don't expect any fireworks. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.
The standout window really starts to show up from the 29th of July. On the Wednesday morning, the 29th, we've got a solid 4ft swell from the SW, with a light cross-offshore breeze. The wave energy jumps up to 1076 (moderate to strong), and the conditions are clean. This is the best on offer for the whole run—excellent conditions for the more experienced crew. The swell is from the SW, which is the optimum direction for this spot, and with that light breeze, it'll be glassy. Crowds are a possibility here, so get in early.
Then, as we roll into the 31st of July and the 1st of August, the swell size picks up a bit more, hitting 6ft to 7ft, but the period drops to around 8 seconds. That's a short-period windswell, so it'll be a bit lumpy and less powerful. The wind stays cross-off, so it'll be clean on the face, but the short period means it's not the same quality as the 29th. The wave energy is still strong (820 combined energy), but it's just not as good.
The 2nd of August sees a bit of a drop again, with a 6ft swell but a cross-on wind, making it a bit choppy. Not the best way to end the outlook.
So, if you're looking for the one session to get excited about, it's the morning of the 29th of July. That's your best bet. The rest of the time? It's a waiting game with some small, clean waves, but nothing to write home about.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Wed morning, min 13°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 16 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 12 | SSW 10 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 26 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
254 | 251 | 314 | 239 | 170 | 358 | 367 | 203 | 248 | 291 | 268 | 534 | 298 | 214 | 189 | 206 | 264 | 229 | 329 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | on | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:04AM1.60m | 4:34PM1.61m | 4:03AM1.40m | 5:14PM1.64m | 5:13AM1.21m | 5:54PM1.65m | 6:40AM1.08m | 6:36PM1.66m | 8:23AM1.06m | 7:21PM1.67m | 9:55AM1.12m | 8:09PM1.68m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:51PM0.59m | 10:08AM-0.05m | 10:54PM0.53m | 10:50AM0.15m | 00:01AM0.46m | 11:34AM0.37m | 1:11AM0.38m | 12:24PM0.58m | 2:19AM0.28m | 1:23PM0.75m | 3:21AM0.19m | 2:30PM0.87m | 4:15AM0.10m | ||||||
— | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | |
8:32 | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:29 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 14 |
Feels °C | 7 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | W 16 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | S 12 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 12 | SSW 10 | SSW 9 | SSW 8 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 |
107 | 77 | 248 | 111 | 126 | 120 | 92 | 92 | 187 | 291 | 268 | 534 | 298 | 214 | 138 | 87 | 264 | 229 | 261 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 16 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | W 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | S 12 | SW 16 | S 12 | S 11 | NW 9 | SW 15 | SSW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | S 7 | S 7 | NW 10 |
254 | 251 | 314 | 239 | 170 | 358 | 367 | 148 | 248 | 169 | 114 | 37 | 176 | 160 | 189 | 206 | 40 | 34 | 47 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 16 | W 15 | W 14 | SW 16 | NW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 13 | NW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 11 | NW 11 | NW 10 | NW 10 | SW 26 |
72 | 190 | 44 | 93 | 165 | 159 | 106 | 203 | 72 | 55 | 47 | 57 | 32 | 16 | 12 | 32 | 54 | 50 | 329 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 7 | — | WNW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 8 | — | — | WNW 2 | WNW 5 |
168 | — | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | — | — | 1 | 28 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 48 | 145 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 23 | 32 | 363 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










