Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Issued: 10 pm 05 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.6° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 6 Jul 2026:

  • Most powerful swell: Friday 10 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,175 kJ wave energy.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 8AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 06) at 11PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)--
Best Surf--
Most Powerful 8AM (Fri 10th Jul)8ft (2.5m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a long, hard look at the next couple of weeks at Drakes Estero.

We've got a bit of a rough patch ahead before things start to look up. The first week is basically a write-off for anything quality, with a lot of wind and messy, short-period swell. You’ll want to keep your board in the bag from the start. There is a gap of several days here with no real recommendations as the conditions just aren't coming together.

The real hope is for the Friday morning of July 17th. That’s where we see a genuine standout. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual to report.

Now, for the specifics. Drakes Estero is a beach and river mouth setup, and it's fairly consistent but exposed to the swell.

Monday July 6th through to Thursday July 16th – Look, I’ll be honest, this stretch is a slog. We’ve got a persistent cross-offshore breeze from the NW that’s mostly a fresh breeze or stronger, cranking up to 28 mph at times. The swell is there, but it’s mostly short-period (8-9 seconds) windswell, so the energy is weak to moderate (combined energy 515-1746). The size fluctuates from a tiny 2 ft up to a messy 8 ft, but for a beach break like this, that short period makes it dumpy and hard to surf. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing through this period. Even though the wave face might look clean, the quality is poor and the scores are low. Hold off.

Friday July 17th – This is the day. There are two standout windows. Friday morning (July 17th) we finally get a reprieve. The wind eases right back to a gentle breeze from the WNW at 9 mph, keeping it cross-off and clean. We get a 6 ft swell from the WNW with a period of 9 seconds, with strong, powerful energy (combined energy 976). This will offer the best chance of a decent, surfable wave. Then Friday afternoon the swell pushes up to 8 ft from the WNW, but the period is still 9 seconds. The energy is very strong (combined energy 1365), but at that size it’s getting into the "experts only" territory, especially with the short period and beach break setup.

Saturday July 18th – A solid follow-up. Saturday morning looks very promising with a light breeze from the WNW at 6 mph, giving us clean conditions. The swell is a manageable 6 ft from the WNW, with moderate to strong energy (combined energy 918). That is a great morning to get out.

Sunday July 19th to Tuesday July 21st – The surf backs off. The swell drops back to 4 ft to 6 ft, and the wind picks back up to a moderate to fresh breeze. The energy drops off significantly (combined energy 498-730). It’s not going to be terrible, but it’s a definite step down from the weekend.

So, to wrap it up: if you want a wave, wait for Friday July 17th morning for the best combination of size, wind, and power. Saturday July 18th morning is your next best bet for a slightly smaller, clean session. The rest of the window? Leave it be.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the S on Mon morning, strong winds from the NW by Tue night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Mainly strong winds.

Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sun
12
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
3
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
SW
18
0.8
SW
16
0.5
SW
21
1.5
WNW
11
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
2.3
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
9
2.1
WNW
9
2.3
WNW
9
2.4
WNW
9
2.4
NW
9
2.3
WNW
9
2.1
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
152
318
224
536
384
465
455
600
606
789
644
845
971
947
807
559
292
491
519
434
670
Wind (km/h)
10
SW
5
SW
20
WNW
30
NW
20
WNW
35
NW
35
NW
30
NW
35
NW
40
NW
30
NW
40
NW
30
NW
20
NW
40
NW
25
NW
25
NW
30
NW
25
NW
25
NW
30
NW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
4:21AM1.25m
5:46PM1.55m
5:37AM1.12m
6:24PM1.64m
7:15AM1.04m
7:06PM1.73m
8:59AM1.06m
7:54PM1.83m
10:24AM1.15m
8:45PM1.92m
11:29AM1.25m
9:40PM1.99m
12:22PM1.33m
Low Tide
11:29PM0.67m
11:14AM0.20m
00:36AM0.54m
11:57AM0.37m
1:44AM0.37m
12:48PM0.55m
2:48AM0.17m
1:48PM0.71m
3:48AM-0.02m
2:53PM0.83m
4:42AM-0.20m
3:58PM0.88m
5:35AM-0.33m
5:00PM0.88m
cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:54
5:54
5:56
5:56
5:56
5:58
5:58
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:36
8:36
8:36
8:35
 mm
Temp °C
13
14
14
12
13
12
12
13
13
12
14
13
12
13
14
13
14
14
12
14
13
Feels °C
12
13
12
8
10
7
5
8
7
5
9
7
4
9
7
6
10
10
6
10
9
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
WNW
8
0.8
WNW
8
0.6
SW
16
0.8
SW
20
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
1
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
1.8
WNW
9
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
0.6
SW
15
0.7
SW
14
0.7
SW
14
Energy kJ
84
84
206
455
384
465
455
600
521
381
381
376
291
508
236
217
217
220
186
206
211
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
SW
18
0.8
SW
16
0.7
WNW
12
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.5
SW
14
0.5
SW
15
0.4
SSW
19
0.4
SW
14
0.9
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.1
S
11
0.1
S
21
0.1
W
18
0.1
W
16
0.2
W
18
0.1
W
18
Energy kJ
152
318
125
206
198
103
104
124
46
381
291
2
9
6
5
24
6
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
SW
13
0.6
WNW
12
0.5
SW
21
0.3
SSW
12
0.7
WNW
11
0.2
S
8
0.2
SSW
11
0.1
W
18
0.1
W
20
0.1
W
15
Energy kJ
85
113
224
28
103
5
12
6
8
4
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
11
1.2
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
6
2
WNW
7
1.8
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
9
2.1
WNW
9
2.3
WNW
9
2.4
WNW
9
2.4
NW
9
2.3
WNW
9
2.1
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
Energy kJ
103
536
161
279
395
392
606
789
644
845
971
947
807
559
292
491
519
434
670
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
1
4
1
2
4
3
2
3
4
2
4
4
2
3
2
1
3
3
2
Distance (km)
32
48
145
32
145
145
32
26
145
48
48
145
32
32
144
26
26
145
26
32
144
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
4
3
4
3
3
3
2
Best forecast wave conditions in United States
Rating
(10 max)
3
3
2
4
2
2
4
4
2
4
4
3
4
4
2
4
3
2
3
3
3
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
7
8
7
5
5
9
8
9
8
7
5
6
5
8
5
5
5
5
5
9
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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