Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch ahead is a mixed bag. We’ve got some clean windows but the swell is mostly small and a lot of it is short-period windswell. Nothing here is going to have you calling in sick, but there are a few sessions worth paddling out for if you pick your moments.

We’re looking at a run that starts slowly. The first worthwhile surf doesn’t really get going until Wednesday afternoon, August 12th, at Drakes Estero (beach/riverh). The swell’s only around 4ft from the WNW with an 8-second period, and the combined energy is moderate at 427. But the wind is cross-off and light, so it’s clean. For a beginner-friendly spot, that's about as good as it gets right now—just don't expect any power.

Thursday the 13th is a write-off for surf—onshore wind and poor conditions. Friday the 14th is more interesting. The swell drops to 2ft but look at that period jump—it’s a proper groundswell from the SSW, 18 seconds on the afternoon. That’s a long-period, clean cross-off wind combo. Waves will be small, but the shape will be there. The combined energy is 399, so it’s weak, but for a longboard or a groveler, that Friday afternoon has some charm.

Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th keep the same small, long-period SW swell. It’s pretty inconsistent and small, with waves in the 2ft to 3ft range. Sunday morning has a touch more energy (586) but it's cross-shore. The afternoons are clean. You’ll be fighting for waves more than riding them, but it’s not a total loss.

The early part of next week, Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th, is the most consistent run of clean surf. Swell stays around 3ft from the SW, with a 14-15 second period. The wind is light and cross-off each morning. It’s not big, but it’s clean and there are waves. If you’ve got a flexible schedule, those mornings are your best bet for a relaxed session without the crowds.

Late next week starts to get a bit windier. Wednesday the 19th, the swell is still 3ft from the SSW, but the wind picks up. By the afternoon, that NW wind is cranking at 22 mph, and while it’s cross-off, it’s going to be lumpy and hard work for what’s on offer. Thursday the 20th is similar. By Friday the 21st, the swell bumps back up to 4ft from the WNW, but that period drops to 11 seconds and the wind is howling again. Not worth it.

The weekend of the 23rd and 24th is a bit of a mixed bag. Saturday the 23rd morning looks okay—3ft from the WNW with a light cross-off wind. But that afternoon drops to nothing. Sunday the 24th morning has a nice long 18-second SW groundswell at 2ft, clean. But the afternoon sees a sudden jump to 6ft from the WNW with a 7-second period. That’s a classic windswell spike, and with a moderate cross-off breeze, it’s going to be messy and junky. Probably more interesting for a kite than a paddleboard.

Looking further out, the week of the 25th starts with another pulse—4ft to 5ft from the WNW, but again with that short, 7-8 second period. It's all chop. The wind is cross-off, but it won’t save it. From the 26th onwards, it fades back to small, clean, but weak conditions. The 26th afternoon and maybe the 27th morning are the last clean calls, but the swell is tiny, 2ft to 2ft.

So here's my call: if you’re chasing the best waves on offer, it’s the morning sessions on the 17th and 18th of August. Clean, consistent, and with a bit of groundswell direction. For a runner-up, Friday the 14th afternoon has the most potential for quality, just not size. Everything else is a grovel or a fight with the wind. Stay patient.

Rusty out.

Read more