
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 21 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 21 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 27 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, NW swell with 1,044 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 21 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 2AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 2PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 2AM (Tue 21st Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Tue 21st Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Mon 27th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s get this sorted out. First off, the truth is, for most of the next few days, Drakes Estero isn’t exactly pumping. It’s looking fairly small and weak early on, with the biggest problem being onshore wind on Wednesday the 22nd. That morning is a write-off with onshore wind and poor conditions. The swell is small, around 2–3 ft, and the energy is moderate, but it’s not going to be clean. Tuesday the 21st afternoon sees a shift to a light cross-offshore breeze from the WNW, with 3 ft SW swell, period around 14 seconds. That’s going to be the best of the early days—actually quite clean, but only small, knee-to-waist-high waves. The water temp is sitting about a normal 56°F for this time of year, so nothing wild there.
From Thursday the 23rd right through to the end of July, the wind becomes a constant cross-offshore from the NW, and the swell ticks up. But then, the period gets really long on the 24th and 25th—up to 24 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, and while it means nice shape, at a beach/river mouth like Drakes Estero, it might break a little straight. Still, the combined energy climbs into the strong range. The standout session would be Thursday morning the 30th of July. You’ve got 8 ft of NW swell (9 sec period), combined energy of 1666, and light cross-offshore winds from the NW at just 9 mph. Clean, solid overhead-plus waves, but that size and the long period combo could make it punchy—more for the experienced crew. Crowds are only sometimes a problem here, which is a nice bonus.
Heads up for Tuesday the 28th and Monday the 3rd of August. Both afternoons forecast 10 ft WNW swell with short 8–9 second period and a cross-off breeze. But the guidance says the swell is too big for this break. It will be messy and dangerous, really only for hardcore experts. Actually, with that much wind and size, it might even be more of a kiteboarding setup than a day for a paddle surfer.
After that first week of August, the last few days (August 4th onward) drop back to 5–6 ft SW/WNW swell. Energy drops, but the wind stays light and cross or cross-off. It’s not a standout; it’s just okay. Decent enough for a longboard if you’re keen, but nothing to get excited about.
So to wrap it up, the only real standout window in the entire 16 days is Thursday the 30th of July morning—clean, solid, and uncrowded. Get in before it gets messy.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Wed morning, min 13°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 12°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Mon 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 11 | SSW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | S 14 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | WNW 7 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
295 | 291 | 268 | 248 | 263 | 160 | 189 | 264 | 316 | 203 | 329 | 448 | 541 | 389 | 763 | 543 | 634 | 627 | 446 | 478 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-on | on | on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:54PM1.65m | 6:40AM1.08m | 6:36PM1.66m | 8:23AM1.06m | 7:21PM1.67m | 9:55AM1.12m | 8:09PM1.68m | 11:01AM1.21m | 8:56PM1.70m | 11:50AM1.27m | 9:43PM1.72m | 12:28PM1.31m | 10:26PM1.75m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:11AM0.38m | 12:24PM0.58m | 2:19AM0.28m | 1:23PM0.75m | 3:21AM0.19m | 2:30PM0.87m | 4:15AM0.10m | 3:34PM0.94m | 5:01AM0.03m | 4:29PM0.95m | 5:42AM-0.03m | 5:16PM0.94m | ||||||||
— | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | |
8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:28 | — | — | 8:27 | — | — | 8:25 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | SSW 9 | SSW 8 | SSW 14 | S 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SW 21 | SSW 12 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 |
295 | 291 | 268 | 248 | 263 | 157 | 129 | 104 | 316 | 195 | 307 | 307 | 331 | 307 | 763 | 195 | 634 | 627 | 446 | 442 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 12 | SW 15 | SSW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 7 | SW 14 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SSW 12 | SW 21 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 |
136 | 121 | 118 | 101 | 220 | 160 | 189 | 264 | 54 | 203 | 329 | 448 | 541 | 389 | 220 | 543 | 167 | 145 | 147 | 125 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 9 | NW 8 | NW 8 | NW 8 | NW 11 | NW 11 | S 7 | WSW 18 | NW 9 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SSW 16 | — | — | SW 15 | — | SW 21 |
70 | 55 | 46 | 37 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 64 | 55 | 33 | 31 | 22 | 42 | 25 | 26 | — | — | 78 | — | 117 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 3 | — | — | WNW 10 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 133 | 90 | 49 | 223 | 193 | 142 | 372 | 244 | 170 | 372 | 478 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 104 | 0 | 430 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 23 | 147 | 144 | 59 | 48 | 144 | 32 | 48 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 48 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










