Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s break it down.

We’re looking at a tricky stretch at Drakes Estero over the next sixteen days. There’s one real highlight early, then a long, flat lull, and the second half of the run is mostly a no-go. The best call is the opening Sunday.

Sunday, August 9th is your day. The morning’s a winner: some clouds, a light 10 km/h cross-off breeze from the WNW, and a solid 5ft swell from the same direction. The period is 10 seconds, so there’s proper juice and shape – combined energy sits at 607, moderate but solid. It’s clean, it’s well-formed, and that’s the best wave of the whole forecast. The afternoon bumps up to 6ft, but the wind jumps to 25 km/h, so the shine wears off. Morning is the money window.

Monday, August 10th is a step down. Morning is cross-shore and a bit bumpy at 5ft, but the afternoon cleans up with 4ft and a better wind angle. Worth a look if you missed Sunday, but that’s it.

Then it goes south. From Tuesday, August 11th through Thursday, August 14th, it’s all onshore wind – SSE straight into the face – and the surf goes small and weak. Don’t bother.

Friday, August 15th to Monday, August 18th, we get some long-period groundswell (15–18 seconds), but it’s small – 2ft to 4ft – and the wind’s no good (onshore or cross-on). At a beach/river spot like this, that kind of long-period swell just rolls in straight and weak. Not worth the paddle.

There’s a tiny clean window on Wednesday, August 20th, with 3ft and light cross-off winds, but it’s barely enough to get wet. Energy’s low at 417.

The last glimmer is Friday, August 22nd and Saturday, August 23rd. Swell picks up to 5ft – 5ft, but the period is short (8 seconds), making it fat and bumpy. Winds are cross-off but gusty. The combined energy is moderate, but the short period and chop mean it’s more of a kite-surfing scene than a clean surf session. Saturday morning (August 23rd) is the better of the two, with lighter wind, but it’s still no match for that first Sunday.

To wrap it up: Sunday, August 9th morning is your one clear standout. After that, expect a long gap with very little worth mentioning until the tail end of the second week. Water temp is about normal for this time of year.

Get out early on the 9th, because that’s the peak.

– Rusty

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