Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here.

The only spot on the radar for the next 16 days is Drakes Estero. It’s a beach/river mouth setup, exposed to the southwest. We’re looking at a long stretch of surf that’s mostly just *there* – nothing to write home about for the first week or so. The water is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than average for this time of year, so that’s a small win.

The first decent bit of activity kicks off on Monday afternoon, July 27th. We’ve got a 4ft SW swell rolling in with a very long period of 19 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy reading is a whopping 1224 (moderate/strong). The wind is a cross-offshore breeze from the WNW at 25 mph, which will keep things clean. This is a point-break style setup, and that long period will suit it well, giving you some nice, lined-up waves. The drawback is that with such a long period, it’ll be a bit peaky, and you’ll have to wait for the sets. This is probably the best on offer in the whole outlook.

The pattern continues through Tuesday and Wednesday, July 28th and 29th, with similar 4ft SW swell, but the wind stays a bit punchy. The real shift happens on Wednesday afternoon, July 29th, when the swell direction swings to the WNW and the period drops to 8 seconds. The swell height jumps to 8ft, but the energy is high (1608). That’s a big, short-period, wind-affected swell. It’s going to be a bit of a mess – strong wind, big, lumpy waves. For a beach/river setup, this is more of a kite-surfing day than a paddle-surfing day unless you’re an expert.

The first week of August is a bit of a mixed bag. The swell stays in the 6ft to 8ft range, mostly from the WNW, with periods around 8-9 seconds. The wind is cross-off a lot of the time. Sunday morning, August 2nd stands out with an 8ft NW swell and a 9-second period, with a combined energy of 2151 (very strong). The wind is a moderate 12 mph cross-off. That’s a lot of power, but it’s still a short-period swell, so expect it to be a bit shallow and dumpy. Only for the experienced.

We hit a bit of a lull from August 3rd through August 7th. The swell drops to 4ft to 6ft, and the wind is onshore or light and variable. The conditions are poor, and the scores are low. It’s a blank run for a few days.

Then things get interesting again. Saturday morning, August 8th, the wind goes light and cross-off from the WNW at just 6 mph. The swell is 5ft from the WNW with a 9-second period. The energy is moderate (614), but the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is a solid, clean, user-friendly day. The crowd situation at Drakes Estero is “sometimes,” so you might have a few folks out, but it shouldn’t be a zoo.

The final little pulse comes on Sunday morning, August 9th, with a similar 5ft WNW swell and light wind. It’s clean and decent, but not as good as Saturday.

The last few days of the outlook fall off a cliff. From August 10th onward, the swell drops to 2ft to 4ft, and the wind is onshore or light. The 11th of August brings a tiny 2ft SW swell with a very long 21-second period, but the direction is all wrong and the energy is low. It’s a disappointing end to the run.

Rusty out.

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