Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it's your man Rusty here with the outlook for Drakes Estero (beach/riverh).

Right off the bat, the first couple of days are a bit of a write-off. Saturday the 1st is a mess. We've got a 5ft to 8ft WNW swell, but that wind is howling out of the NW at 25 mph, turning it into a choppy, ugly mess. The wave energy is moderate at best, but the conditions are just too rough. Not worth paddling out.

Now, Sunday the 2nd is where we start to see a glimmer of hope. The morning shows some potential. The swell is a solid 7ft from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, and the wind drops to a gentle 9 mph cross-off. The water is a bit colder than normal at 55°F for this time of year, so you'll want a hood or a thicker suit. The combined energy is moderate, and the report says "expect very good surf conditions." That Sunday morning window looks like the best bet for the first week. The afternoon gets blown out again with a fresh breeze, so get it early.

Monday the 3rd has another chance. The morning is clean but with an onshore breeze, making it messy. But hold onto your boards, because Monday afternoon looks glassy! Winds shift to a 3 mph westerly, glassing off the surface. The swell drops to 5ft, but that light wind is a major positive. It'll be clean.

After that, we hit a bit of a lull. From Tuesday the 4th right through to Friday the 7th, the swell drops dramatically. We're talking 1ft to 4ft. The wave energy is weak, and the periods get very long on Thursday and Friday, hitting 18-19 seconds. That groundswell is better for a point or reef, not a beach setup like this. It'll be weak and wonky. Not worth the effort.

Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th see the swell bump back up to 5ft and 6ft, with moderate energy. The winds are cross-shore or cross-off, so it could be alright, but the reports are calling it "marginal." A standard average day.

The real standout for this whole outlook might actually be right at the very end. Looking at Sunday the 16th, the swell is a clean 5ft from the WNW with a 10-second period. The wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-off from the NW, and the report says "expect very good surf conditions" with moderate energy. It's a long way out, so take it with a grain of salt, but that afternoon session on the 16th looks like a proper score. For anyone who can wait, that's the one to circle on the calendar.

A quick word on the future; after the 9th, the swell drops back down. Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th have waist-high surf but with moderate to fresh winds, making it unappealing. We get another little bump on the 14th and 15th of August, with 5ft to 6ft WNW swell, but the wind is cranking at 19 mph. At those wind speeds, with that swell height, this beach setup starts looking more interesting for kiteboarding than paddle surfing. Conditions will be too choppy to be any fun on a surfboard.

So, if you're looking for the best windows: Sunday morning the 2nd and that long-range Sunday afternoon on the 16th. The glassy Monday afternoon on the 3rd is worth a look too if you want clean, small waves.

Stay stoked.
Rusty

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