Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I'm Rusty, and I've been staring at these numbers for Drakes Estero. It's a beach and river-mouth setup that's exposed to the SW, so it takes that swell direction best.

Right out of the gate, this is a slow burner. We've got a bit of a wait on our hands. The first few days are just weak and messy. Sunday the 5th is a write-off – tiny 2ft SW swell with a cross-onshore breeze that's gonna chop it up. Monday and Tuesday the 6th and 7th aren't much better, though the wind does swing to a clean cross-offshore from the WNW. The problem is the swell is still small and weak. We're looking at combined energy values in the 400-800 range, which is just weak to moderate energy, and the surf is marginal at best. The water temp is sitting at 55°, average for this time of year.

Now, come Wednesday the 8th, things start to rumble. We see the swell jump to 3ft and the energy crank up to 1462 (moderate-strong), but it's still a touch on the small side. The real tell is Wednesday afternoon: a 7ft swell from the WNW, but with a short period of just 8 seconds and a fresh breeze at 22 mph. That's a lot of wind on a beach break. It's clean, but that short period means it's going to be a bit of a mess. Not exactly a standout.

Thursday the 9th keeps pushing nearly 8ft WNW swell, but the wind is howling at 25 mph. That's a strong breeze, and while it's clean, it's going to be howling. Anything over 8ft is expert territory, and we're flirting with that. Honestly, with that much wind and a beach setup, a kite surfer might be having more fun than us paddle guys.

There is one window that looks promising for a solid, if not perfect, session. Friday the 10th morning. The swell is around 7ft from the NW, period is 9 seconds, and the wind has dropped to a moderate 12 mph cross-offshore. The combined energy is high at 1462. That's a decent size with cleaner conditions, but still short-period. It's going to be a bit lumpy but there will be some waves to push into. Not the best, but the best of the first week.

We then hit a lull through the weekend of the 11th and 12th, which are almost flat and blown out.

Looking into the second week, things get more interesting but also more uncertain. Monday the 13th brings back building swell, but it's short period and windy. The real blip on the radar is Friday the 17th. The morning session shows a solid 8ft NW swell, with a period of 9 seconds and the wind easing back to a gentle 9 mph cross-off. The energy hits 2196, which is very strong. That's a big, powerful groundswell, but with that short period it's going to break fast and fat. It'll be a handful, but for experts, that could be the best day of the two weeks. The crowd levels are listed as "sometimes" here, so it might not be a zoo.

Honestly, the whole window has issues: either the wind is too strong, the swell is too short-period for the size, or it's just weak. There's no perfect day. If you're a patient surfer, the 17th is your best bet, but it's a gamble this far out. For the rest of it, you're chasing marginal conditions in a fairly consistent area, so it won't stay poor forever, but this stretch is a bit of a grind.

Rusty.

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