
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 11 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 12 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 9s period, WNW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 15 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 502 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 11 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 9s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 11) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 11PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 6s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 2AM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Tue 11th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 2AM (Wed 12th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 11PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what we've got coming down the pike for Drakes Estero. It's a bit of a mixed bag, but there are some windows worth paddling out for.
The first proper surfable window doesn't really kick in until Wednesday afternoon, the 12th of August. Before that, it’s a write-off with onshore winds and poor conditions. From Wednesday arvo onwards, things start to look a whole lot more promising. The overall pattern is one of clean, glassy conditions with a long-period groundswell that will really suit this spot, but the size is going to be on the smaller side for most of it.
The standout window is the 16th, Sunday morning. We’ve got a 3.3ft swell rolling in from the SW with a 16-second period. That’s proper groundswell, with a combined energy of 565 (moderate wave energy). The wind is a light, cross-offshore breeze from the WNW, which will keep the surface buttery smooth. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, lined up, and will have some real push. Drakes Estero is a beach/river-mouth setup, so that long period can make it a bit walled up at times, but with the light wind and tidy size, it’s the best on offer.
Following that, Monday the 17th morning is also a solid choice. It’s a bit smaller at 3.0ft, but the swell is still from the SSW with a 14-second period, and again, light cross-offshore wind. The energy is a notch lower at 422 (moderate wave energy), but it’s clean and consistent.
Later in the window, the 22nd of August, Saturday morning, brings a bit of a different swell. We’re looking at a 3.0ft swell from the WNW with a 10-second period. The combined energy is 332 (moderate wave energy). The wind is light and cross-offshore again, so it’ll be clean. It’s a shorter period swell, so it won’t have the same grunt as the 16-second stuff, but it’s a fun size and the conditions will be good. The water temperature is sitting at 58.6°F, which is about 0.9°F above the norm, so nothing unusual for the time of year.
Keep in mind, Drakes Estero can get crowded sometimes, and it’s a fairly consistent spot, so especially on the better days you might have some company. For the real big energy days later on, like the 25th and 26th, the swell is over 5.0ft and the wind is hitting 25 mph, making it a howling, choppy mess. That’s kite-surfing territory, not for a paddle.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed morning, min 11°C on Tue morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri morning, min 12°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
228 | 211 | 354 | 255 | 261 | 237 | 243 | 197 | 191 | 174 | 221 | 252 | 414 | 268 | 502 | 489 | 385 | 412 | 367 | 174 | 211 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 12:41PM1.46m | 11:25PM1.98m | 1:19PM1.52m | 00:18AM1.93m | 1:54PM1.57m | 1:09AM1.82m | 2:29PM1.62m | 2:01AM1.68m | 3:03PM1.65m | 2:54AM1.51m | 3:36PM1.67m | 3:52AM1.34m | 4:11PM1.66m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:56PM0.73m | 6:54AM-0.29m | 6:49PM0.62m | 7:35AM-0.23m | 7:41PM0.52m | 8:14AM-0.12m | 8:33PM0.45m | 8:52AM0.03m | 9:25PM0.39m | 9:29AM0.22m | 10:19PM0.35m | 10:07AM0.42m | 11:17PM0.33m | ||||||||
6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | |
— | 8:09 | — | — | 8:08 | — | — | 8:07 | — | — | 8:06 | — | — | 8:05 | — | — | 8:04 | — | — | 8:01 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
228 | 211 | 354 | 255 | 261 | 237 | 243 | 197 | 135 | 107 | 76 | 38 | 414 | 268 | 502 | 489 | 385 | 412 | 367 | 174 | 211 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 7 | WNW 6 | WNW 8 | WNW 10 | W 10 | W 9 | W 9 | SW 11 | WNW 9 |
87 | 100 | 194 | 150 | 130 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 191 | 174 | 221 | 252 | 34 | 33 | 35 | 56 | 48 | 44 | 41 | 103 | 26 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 12 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 14 | S 9 | SW 13 | WNW 10 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | SW 10 |
94 | 113 | 28 | 65 | 67 | 27 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 97 | 102 | 167 | 14 | 87 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 25 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 2 | S 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 6 | NW 7 | W 9 | WNW 3 |
— | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 7 | 40 | 2 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 145 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 180 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 26 | 48 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 147 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











