Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty comin' at you from the coast. Let's look at what's on the table for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.

First off, I gotta be straight with you – the water temp is sittin' around 58°, which is pretty much what you'd expect for this time of year. Nothin' wild there.

Now, for the surf. Honestly, it's a tough stretch. The first few days are a bit of a write-off. Tuesday the 28th through to Thursday the 31st, we've got a mix of swell and some pretty stiff NW wind. It's cross-off, so the waves will be clean, but the energy is all over the place. The wave energy is moderate (928) on Tuesday morning, but it's a long-period 18-second groundswell. That's a beautiful thing for a point or reef, but for a beach/river mouth setup like this, that long period can make 'em close out or break too straight. Tuesday afternoon the energy jumps up (1244) but the wind is howling at 25 mph, making it a real handful. Wednesday morning is a bit calmer with the wind (16 mph) and a long 16-second swell, but still just not well-shaped for this spot. The scores are low, and the comments say "marginal" – I'm not tellin' you to paddle out for this.

The real deal, the only standout in this whole 16-day window, is Saturday, August 2nd. The morning of the 2nd we've got a solid 10 ft swell from the NW, with a 10-second period, pushed by a moderate breeze from the NW at 16 mph. The wave energy is strong (2458). The forecast notes say "wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break." And they're right – 10 ft is expert-only territory. This is for the big dogs, and only the big dogs. If you're not on that level, stay on the beach and watch. The wind is clean, the power is there, but it's a serious session.

After that, it drops off again. Sunday the 3rd has some waist-high options, but the wind swings onshore from the S. Monday the 4th afternoon gives us a brief moment of glassy conditions (NW 3 mph) with a tiny 4 ft wave, but it's short-period and the energy is weak (314). It's a novelty glass-off, not a real surf. From Tuesday the 5th through to the end of the forecast, it's a long, slow decline. Swell drops to 3 ft and under, with a lot of onshore or light cross-onshore wind. The energy drops into the low hundreds (300-400 range), and the comments are full of "poor surf conditions." There's a gap of several days, from the 5th to the 12th, where there's really nothin' worth paddling for.

Don't get your hopes up for the 12th either. The swell shows a pulse of long-period 18-second SW swell, but it's small (3 ft) and the wind is stiff again (19-22 mph). It's a tease.

So here's the takeaway: the entire outlook is bleak, except for that one massive, expert-only session on the morning of Saturday, August 2nd. That's your one shot. Otherwise, leave the board in the car and go for a walk.

Rusty.

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