Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, it’s Rusty here, and let’s have a look at what Drakes Estero is serving up over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, this is a stretch where you’re gonna have to work for it. The opening weekend kicks off with a long-period SW groundswell Saturday morning, running at about 2 ft on a 15-second period, but it’s a cross-off wind from the northwest at 12 mph. That’s clean enough, but the wave energy is weak – only 385 – so it’s not gonna be pumping. The water temperature is sitting at 56°, which is spot on for this time of year, so nothing weird there. The problem is, that’s about as good as it gets for a while.

From Saturday afternoon all the way through the rest of the first week and into the second, we’re looking at a whole lot of "marginal" flags and some poor conditions tossed in. The swell bumpers up a bit on the 13th, but the period drops to 7 or 8 seconds, and the wind stays cross-off or cross, mostly from the NW at 12 to 19 mph. Lumpy, short-period stuff. The energy does climb into the moderate range – peaking just over 500 – but the quality just isn't there. Wednesday the 15th afternoon actually gets proper rowdy with 10 ft swell and an 8-second period, but that also brings a 28 mph NW wind and a massive 1272 combined energy reading. That’s expert-only territory and honestly, with the wind blasting like that, it might be more fun for kite surfers than paddle surfers.

There’s a big gap of days where nothing really stands out. We’re talking from the start through to the tail end of the third week – nothing worth calling a standout. The best chance you get is Saturday the 25th morning. That’s over a week away, so keep your expectations in check. Early that morning there’s a 2 ft SW groundswell with a long 21-second period, light WNW cross-off wind at 9 mph, and clean conditions. The combined energy is still weak at 434, but the setup looks tidy for a longboard or a fun shape. That’s the one session I’d keep an eye on. The swell direction matches the spot’s optimum, and the breeze will keep it looking nice.

After that, the rest of the 26th and into the final day, it fades back into mediocre territory with building wind.

So, bottom line: Don’t get your hopes up for anything epic. That Saturday the 25th morning window is your best bet – small, clean, and manageable. The rest is gonna have you scratching your head.

Rusty

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