Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 1,133 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 28 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 5PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 18s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 11s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 5PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5PM (Tue 28th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 5PM (Tue 28th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Tue 28th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s going on.
We’re starting off slow. The first few days are a bit of a struggle with marginal surf and iffy winds. Not much to get excited about until we hit the end of the month. The water is about 57°, which is what you’d expect for this time of year.
The real sweet spot is the final weekend of July and the first couple of days of August. We’ve got a clean line of swell and some good wind. Thursday, July 31st morning is the pick. Drakes Estero is showing 5ft of swell from the WNW. The wind is light and cross-off, which will leave the surface clean. The period is short at 8 seconds, so it’s a wind swell, but it’ll be fun and lined up. The energy is moderate at 650, so it’s not too heavy.
Saturday, August 1st morning is another one to mark. The swell is holding at 6ft from the WNW, and the wind is a light breeze, almost glassy. That’s a great setup for clean, fun waves. The energy is moderate at 701. This is a solid run for a beach/river mouth, and with crowds possible, you’ll want to be early.
The following week has some size, but it gets tricky. Monday, August 4th morning has 7ft WNW swell, but the wind is light and cross-shore, so it’s a bit messy. The big one for experts is Tuesday, August 5th afternoon. The swell is 10ft from the WNW, but the forecast says it’s too big for the break. The energy is strong at 1344, so if you’re experienced and can handle the power, it might be on. After that, the wind turns onshore, so the window closes.
So, the best bets are the morning sessions on the 31st of July and the 1st of August. Keep an eye on that big Tuesday session if you’re a charger.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed morning, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SW on Wed afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Sat night). Mainly strong winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 9 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 352 | 236 | 264 | 321 | 200 | 329 | 448 | 541 | 389 | 763 | 543 | 634 | 627 | 526 | 442 | 528 | 791 | 524 | 600 | 980 | 634 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:23AM1.06m | 7:21PM1.67m | 9:55AM1.12m | 8:09PM1.68m | 11:01AM1.21m | 8:56PM1.70m | 11:50AM1.27m | 9:43PM1.72m | 12:28PM1.31m | 10:26PM1.75m | 1:00PM1.33m | 11:07PM1.76m | 1:30PM1.34m | 11:46PM1.76m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:23PM0.75m | 3:21AM0.19m | 2:30PM0.87m | 4:15AM0.10m | 3:34PM0.94m | 5:01AM0.03m | 4:29PM0.95m | 5:42AM-0.03m | 5:16PM0.94m | 6:19AM-0.08m | 5:57PM0.91m | 6:53AM-0.11m | 6:34PM0.87m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:05 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:28 | — | — | 8:27 | — | — | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
Feels °C | 15 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 9 | SSW 8 | SSW 8 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 |
| kJ | 352 | 212 | 120 | 321 | 200 | 246 | 249 | 201 | 173 | 763 | 543 | 634 | 627 | 526 | 442 | 528 | 791 | 524 | 600 | 781 | 560 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 7 | S 13 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | S 12 | SW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SW 11 |
| kJ | 245 | 236 | 264 | 29 | 125 | 329 | 448 | 541 | 389 | 113 | 57 | 57 | 71 | 37 | 42 | 40 | 37 | 56 | 54 | 48 | 29 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 8 | WNW 12 | WNW 12 | WNW 11 | S 7 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | S 11 | S 10 | SW 15 | S 10 | SW 21 | SW 14 | SSW 10 | SW 16 | S 10 | S 10 | SW 11 |
| kJ | 10 | 28 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 49 | 46 | 43 | 25 | 25 | 37 | 18 | 35 | 18 | 117 | 30 | 19 | 89 | 2 | 2 | 30 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | WNW 4 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | NW 6 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 15 | 80 | 83 | 44 | 160 | 128 | 103 | 209 | 164 | 136 | 415 | 362 | 257 | 637 | 440 | 356 | 980 | 634 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 147 | 26 | 147 | 144 | 32 | 48 | 144 | 59 | 48 | 144 | 143 | 48 | 144 | 48 | 48 | 144 | 133 | 48 | 144 | 32 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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