Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 4 pm 31 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.3° C
0.7° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,801 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 19s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Best Surf 8PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a window of surf, but it ain't all gonna be pretty. The first few days are a bit of a tease, with some decent swell but the wind is gonna be a constant headache. Then we get a proper clean-up and a couple of days that are worth calling in sick for, before it fades out into the long-range. Keep your expectations in check for the back half of the run.

First up, Drakes Estero is your only spot on the map. Water temp is sitting at 56°, which is close to normal for this time of year, so just grab the usual rubber.

The weekend kicks off with some cross-off wind and a building swell. Friday afternoon has 7ft of short-period WNW swell, but it’s a bit of a mess and the conditions are marginal. The energy is moderate at 640. Saturday stays in the same vein, more cross-off wind and a bit of a bump. The swell drops to 5ft in the morning, but then it jumps to 8ft by the afternoon, and that wind is howling at 25 mph, which is just gonna turn it into a washing machine. The energy is pushing 989. Not worth it. Saturday is a write-off.

Sunday is where things start to look up. The swell is still solid at 7ft in the morning with a better 9-second period. The wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-off, and it’s looking clean. The energy is up to 808. This is a good one. The afternoon adds a bit more size, 7ft, and the energy jumps to 970, but the breeze picks up to 19 mph, so the morning is your window. Monday morning has light onshore wind but the swell is still there at 6ft and the period is holding at 10 seconds. It’s a bit of a gamble, but the afternoon looks much better. The wind swings cross-off and light, and the waves are a clean 6ft. That’s another good window. These two days, Sunday morning and Monday afternoon, are your first real highlights.

Now, we hit a flat spell. From Tuesday the 4th through the 6th, the swell drops and the wind gets messy. Onshore and cross-onshore breezes are gonna chop up what little swell is left, and the energy is down in the 300-500 range. It’s poor, plain and simple. Don’t even bother.

Then the ocean wakes up again. On Thursday the 6th, the energy jumps to a big 1648 with 8ft of WNW swell on the afternoon. The period is still a solid 10 seconds. The wind is light and cross-shore, so it’s not perfect, but that’s a lot of water moving. Friday the 7th still has some good size, 6ft in the morning and 6ft in the afternoon, with light cross-shore winds. It looks pretty clean, but the score isn't as good as Thursday's. Still, it’s worth a paddle.

After that, it’s a slow taper. The swell drops back down to the 4ft – 6ft range, but the south winds come back onshore and kill the quality. the energy falls into the 500-800 range. It’s just not gonna be much fun. That run of poor conditions carries through to the end of the first week of August.

Moving into the long range, around the 12th of August, the direction shifts to the southwest, but the size just falls off a cliff. We’re talking about 2ft to 2ft of long-period but weak energy. Even though the period gets up to 18 seconds, there just isn’t any power behind it. The energy is down in the 300s. It’s not going to break properly, especially at a spot like this. It's not looking good for the second week, so don't get your hopes up.

If I had to call it, the standout is the Sunday morning session. It’s got the size, the clean wind, and the energy is solid. The Thursday afternoon pulse is also a big one, but that cross-shore wind is a bit of a spoiler. Both are worth the drive.

Alright, that’s the long and short of it. Get out there when it’s good, and save your energy for the rest.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Fri night, light winds from the N by Sun night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 12°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Fri
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
1
0
1
3
1
!
2
3
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
3
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2
WNW
7
1.8
WNW
7
1.6
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
8
2.4
WNW
9
2
WNW
9
2.2
WNW
9
3
NW
10
1.8
WNW
10
1.7
WNW
10
1.7
WNW
10
1.5
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
10
1.3
WNW
10
1.3
WNW
10
1.5
WNW
10
2.3
NW
10
2.2
WNW
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
363
352
285
808
888
702
835
1801
674
555
588
370
299
222
290
284
307
439
979
951
Wind (km/h)
35
NW
30
NW
20
NW
40
NW
30
NW
15
NW
30
NW
15
NW
10
S
15
NW
10
SSE
20
SSE
10
S
10
S
20
SSE
10
SSW
10
W
10
W
15
W
10
SW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
cross-off
on
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
High Tide
2:48PM1.44m
1:43AM1.61m
3:14PM1.49m
2:27AM1.51m
3:42PM1.55m
3:17AM1.37m
4:12PM1.62m
4:19AM1.23m
4:48PM1.68m
5:43AM1.11m
5:31PM1.74m
7:31AM1.07m
6:23PM1.79m
Low Tide
8:26PM0.70m
8:52AM-0.02m
9:09PM0.63m
9:23AM0.09m
9:58PM0.55m
9:56AM0.25m
10:54PM0.46m
10:32AM0.43m
11:58PM0.36m
11:16AM0.61m
1:10AM0.24m
12:12PM0.78m
2:23AM0.11m
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:13
6:15
6:16
6:16
6:16
6:18
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:22
8:21
8:20
8:19
8:17
8:16
8:15
 mm
Temp °C
14
13
15
16
14
15
15
14
16
16
13
15
16
14
15
15
13
14
15
13
Feels °C
8
5
11
9
6
13
9
9
15
15
10
12
14
14
12
13
12
13
13
11
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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