
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 5PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, NW swell with 1,970 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 8s period with NW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.4m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.7m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.8m and 13s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8AM (Sat 1st Aug) | 8ft (2.4m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 5PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the next couple of weeks at Drakes Estero. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so I’ll break it down for you.
The setup is a beach/river mouth that’s fairly consistent, but it’s exposed to the southwest. The water’s sitting at 58°, which is about normal for this time of year.
We’re looking at a long stretch of average to poor surf to start. From Wednesday the 29th through to the end of July, it’s a lot of cross-offshore wind and short-period junky swell. The waves are there, but the combo of choppy conditions and short period (like 7-8 seconds) means it’s not going to be a great session. The combined energy during this period is mostly moderate, hitting 979 (moderate energy) on Wednesday morning, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-off, so it’s messy. Afternoon swells on the 29th and 30th show a bit of size (8 ft and 8 ft), but the period is short and the wind is strong, making it more of a battle than a pleasure. This is a good stretch for the kites, not the paddlers.
The first sign of a real standout comes on Saturday, August 1st. The afternoon looks like the best on offer for the whole outlook. The swell is 10 ft from the WNW, but here’s the thing – at that size, this spot is for experts only. The wind is a strong 28 mph cross-off, which is a major factor, but the combined energy is a powerful 1339 (strong). The call is that the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is just too big for this break. If you’re a seasoned charger, that’s your window. The morning of the 1st has a more manageable 7 ft, but it’s still cross-off and not as clean.
After that, we get a bit of a lull. The 2nd and 3rd of August are okay, but nothing special. The morning of Monday the 3rd is notable for one thing: glassy conditions. The wind drops to 3 mph from the SW, which is a light offshore. The swell is 6 ft from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, and combined energy of 810 (moderate). That’s a clean, fun wave for the experienced intermediate surfer, but it’s not a true standout.
Then we hit a dry spell. From Tuesday the 4th through to the 7th, the wind turns onshore or cross-shore, and the surf quality drops. The 5th of August afternoon shows a glimmer of hope with 4 ft and clean conditions, but it’s not a highlight.
The real second standout pops up on Sunday, August 9th, and Monday, August 10th. The mornings of both days are listed as “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” On the 9th, we’ve got 7 ft from the NW, period 8 seconds, with a light 6 mph cross-off breeze. The combined energy is 1044 (strong). The 10th is similar at 6 ft from the NW, period 9 seconds, with the same light wind, and energy at 1026 (strong). These are solid, powerful waves for the crew that can handle it. The 8-second period is a bit short, but the clean surface and moderate size make it a good call.
The final week, from the 11th onwards, drops off. The swell period increases to 16-18 seconds from the SW, which is a long-period groundswell, but the size is small (2 ft to 3 ft), and the energy is moderate (under 540). These are tiny, clean waves for the longboard or a soul session, not for the main event.
So, to sum it up: the two standout windows are the afternoon of Saturday, August 1st for the experts hitting the big stuff, and the mornings of Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th for a solid, clean session. Everything else is average to poor. Don’t waste your time on the first week of the forecast unless you’re a die-hard kiter.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed morning, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Wed night, light winds from the NW by Fri morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sat night, calm by Mon morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | WNW 8 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | NW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
617 | 691 | 519 | 436 | 600 | 464 | 289 | 417 | 402 | 650 | 1176 | 1037 | 833 | 871 | 1970 | 725 | 533 | 635 | 386 | 312 | 207 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 1:56PM1.36m | 00:25AM1.74m | 2:22PM1.39m | 1:03AM1.69m | 2:48PM1.44m | 1:43AM1.61m | 3:14PM1.49m | 2:27AM1.51m | 3:42PM1.55m | 3:17AM1.37m | 4:12PM1.62m | 4:19AM1.23m | 4:48PM1.68m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:11PM0.82m | 7:54AM-0.12m | 7:47PM0.77m | 8:23AM-0.09m | 8:26PM0.70m | 8:52AM-0.02m | 9:09PM0.63m | 9:23AM0.09m | 9:58PM0.55m | 9:56AM0.25m | 10:54PM0.46m | 10:32AM0.43m | 11:58PM0.36m | ||||||||
6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | |
— | 8:23 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:21 | — | — | 8:20 | — | — | 8:19 | — | — | 8:17 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 14 |
Feels °C | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 10 | SSW 13 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 |
617 | 610 | 519 | 436 | 367 | 334 | 289 | 289 | 217 | 390 | 127 | 71 | 833 | 69 | 1124 | 725 | 533 | 635 | 386 | 312 | 207 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 11 | S 18 | SW 9 | SW 9 | SW 15 | S 14 | S 13 | — | W 21 | S 12 | S 11 | SSW 12 | SW 14 | S 10 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 15 | SW 12 | SW 14 |
11 | 160 | 3 | 3 | 141 | 153 | 126 | — | 9 | 44 | 21 | 28 | 89 | 17 | 67 | 43 | 41 | 37 | 59 | 35 | 52 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 17 | S 16 | SSE 14 | SW 8 | — | S 15 | — | SSW 15 | SW 21 | SW 14 | SW 19 | S 10 | S 10 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 15 | SSW 11 |
57 | 129 | 69 | 3 | — | 110 | — | 47 | 17 | 74 | 15 | 8 | 17 | 49 | 49 | 42 | 41 | 40 | 36 | 56 | 25 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | — | WNW 10 | NW 10 | — | — | — | SSE 2 | — | S 3 |
294 | 691 | 476 | 372 | 600 | 464 | 247 | 417 | 402 | 650 | 1176 | 1037 | — | 871 | 1970 | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 26 | 145 | 48 | 26 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 26 | 26 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 145 | 26 | 0 | 195 | 5 | 37 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










