Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 4 pm 12 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.4° C
0.2° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 13 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 13 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 8s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 945 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 13 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 8s period with NW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 2AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.5m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 14s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 18) at 2AM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 2AM (Mon 13th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 8s
Best Surf 2AM (Mon 13th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 8PM (Thu 16th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.

Right now, the swell is running with moderate energy (431) and a messy 4ft from the WNW at 8 seconds, so nothing to get too excited about. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The standout window looks like Monday the 13th, early. That morning we’ve got a solid 6ft of NW swell, still short period at 8 seconds, but the combined energy jumps up to 824 (moderate). The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, keeping things clean. It’s a fairly consistent spot, Drakes Estero (a beach/river setup), and it’s exposed to the SW swell direction – the optimum direction here. Worth a paddle if you’re beginner-friendly, but this swell size is fine for that level. Crowds are possible, so keep an eye out.

Another one to circle is Monday the 20th, afternoon. The swell drops to 3ft, but it’s a long-period 16 seconds from the SW, with very clean conditions and a light cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is still moderate (702), and it’s a real long-period groundswell, so those waves will have some shape and punch. Drakes Estero being a river/beach break, long-period stuff can straighten out a bit, but the wind is in your favour.

After the 13th, the week gets blown out with strong winds and poor conditions until the 17th. That Friday morning the 17th sees a small 2ft from the W with a very long 17-second period, but it’s marginal – combined energy (619) is moderate, but the wind is cross-off, so you might score a few clean ones if you’re patient. The 18th to 19th have tiny, long-period swells, but the wind shifts onshore for some of it.

The second week stays petite, with most days offering 2ft to 4ft of swell, but the long-period windows (13-18 seconds) pop up now and then. Saturday the 26th morning has a clean 3ft from the SSW at 12 seconds, light cross-off breeze, and combined energy of 688 (moderate). It’s a nice little session, but nothing firing.

Overall, the best bet is Monday the 13th morning for a decent swell, and Monday the 20th afternoon for a clean, long-period glassy session. The rest is a mixed bag of small, marginal, or windy conditions. Keep your expectations in check, but there’s a couple of windows to work with.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Sun afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Tue night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Thu night, light winds from the W by Fri night).

Sun
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
Rating
(10 max)
1
4
3
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
1
2
2
3
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
WNW
8
2
NW
8
1.7
NW
8
1.6
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
1.4
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
7
1.8
WNW
7
1.6
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
2.2
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
7
0.7
W
17
0.7
W
16
0.7
W
16
0.7
SW
18
0.7
W
16
0.7
S
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
217
515
390
326
319
238
302
334
285
310
635
521
865
452
217
290
254
251
314
239
179
Wind (km/h)
15
WNW
15
NW
15
WNW
25
NW
25
NW
20
WNW
30
NW
30
NW
30
NW
45
NW
40
NW
40
NW
45
NW
30
NW
20
NW
20
WNW
10
W
10
S
5
SSW
5
NW
10
WNW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
10:35PM2.05m
1:09PM1.40m
11:29PM2.06m
1:53PM1.45m
00:23AM2.02m
2:34PM1.49m
1:16AM1.93m
3:15PM1.53m
2:09AM1.79m
3:55PM1.58m
3:04AM1.60m
4:34PM1.61m
4:03AM1.40m
Low Tide
5:00PM0.88m
6:25AM-0.42m
5:58PM0.85m
7:14AM-0.45m
6:55PM0.79m
8:00AM-0.43m
7:52PM0.72m
8:44AM-0.35m
8:50PM0.65m
9:27AM-0.22m
9:51PM0.59m
10:08AM-0.05m
10:54PM0.53m
10:50AM0.15m
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:58
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:01
6:03
6:03
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:35
8:35
8:34
8:34
8:32
8:32
8:31
8:30
 mm
Temp °C
14
13
14
15
14
14
14
13
13
14
13
13
14
13
13
13
11
13
14
13
14
Feels °C
13
11
12
10
7
10
8
5
7
8
4
5
6
4
9
11
7
11
12
12
12
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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