Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Drakes Estero are a real mixed bag. We’ve got some size coming, but the wind is gonna be a constant battle. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first week is all about the wind. It’s gonna be blowing from the northwest, which is a cross-offshore breeze here, so the waves will be clean. But that wind is strong, really strong. We’re talking 18 to 25 mph, which is howling. That’s going to make the surface clean but the paddle out a real grind. The swell is all over the place. On the 29th, we start with a 4 ft SSW groundswell with a 16-second period, that’s proper energy (962 combined energy) – but the wind is just too much to make it enjoyable. The afternoons that week see an 8 ft WNW windswell with a short 8-second period, which is just a bumpy, choppy mess. The combined energy jumps to 1365 but it’s not the good kind.

Things get interesting on Sunday the 2nd of August. The morning brings a solid 10 ft NW swell with a 9-second period, and the wind finally drops to a moderate 12 mph. The data says the swell might be too big for this break, but for a confident surfer, that’s a lot of water moving. The combined energy is a massive 2244. That’s a standout morning, but it’s a beast. It’s not for the faint of heart.

Monday the 3rd of August is the real gem. The afternoon sees a 6 ft WNW swell, still a 10-second period, but the wind switches to a light 9 mph cross-offshore from the WNW. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions,” and with 614 combined energy, this is the cleanest, most manageable window we’ve got. That’s the session to aim for.

After that, the swell drops off a cliff. From the 4th through the 6th, we’re under 3 ft with onshore winds – it’s flat and poor. A little bump comes back on the 7th and 8th with 4 ft to 6 ft swells, but the wind is back up to 12-15 mph, so it’s still a battle. The 9th of August morning has a light 4 ft WNW swell with light 6 mph winds, making for a clean session, but the energy is only 364, so it’s small. The 10th and 11th are a washout with tiny, long-period swells from the SSW and SW (14-18 seconds) that just don’t have the height to do anything.

The second week fizzles out. The 12th and 13th have some weak 2 ft to 3 ft SW groundswells with very long periods (17-18 seconds), but the energy is low and the winds are either light or from the SSE. It’s a long wait for a wave that might not even break properly.

So, here’s the call: Sunday the 2nd of August morning for the big-wave crew who want a challenge, and Monday the 3rd of August afternoon as the best all-round session for anyone who wants clean, solid waves without getting blown off the water. The rest is wind slop or flat spells. Stay patient.

Rusty

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