Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 27 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 29 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 2 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with 1,338 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 29 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 16s. Another secondary swell of 0.2m and 11s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 2PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a long, slow grind ahead for Drakes Estero. The first real chance to get wet doesn’t show up until the afternoon of Monday, August 3rd. Before that, it’s a frustrating stretch of cross-offshore winds and plenty of energy, but the conditions are just never quite right – a lot of “marginal” calls, which is a bummer.
The standout for the whole run is that Monday afternoon, August 3rd. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 60°, which is a nice little bonus. You’ll see a clean 6ft of swell rolling in from the WNW, with a period of 9 seconds. The wind goes light and cross-offshore, and the forecast is calling for *very good surf conditions*. Combined energy is moderate at 547, so it’s not a monster, but it’s a solid, clean wave. This is the one to circle.
After that, things get iffy again. Tuesday, August 4th, has a brief moment of glassy conditions on the afternoon with a light 4ft, but the energy is weak (257). The following days are mostly a write-off with onshore winds messing things up. The second week, from August 7th onward, we see a slow increase in swell size, pushing up to 7ft by the 10th, but the wind is all over the place – mostly onshore or cross-onshore. The energy climbs into the moderate-to-strong range (over 1000), but the quality just isn’t there for a clean paddle session. It’s a 16-day outlook where the waiting game is the name of the game.
Keep your eyes on that Monday afternoon, August 3rd, at Drakes Estero. That’s your best bet.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 13°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Mon night, light winds from the NW by Wed morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat morning, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Wed night, light winds from the NW by Fri morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 614 | 522 | 702 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 663 | 617 | 759 | 620 | 469 | 649 | 476 | 366 | 351 | 382 | 390 | 666 | 807 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:26PM1.75m | 1:00PM1.33m | 11:07PM1.76m | 1:30PM1.34m | 11:46PM1.76m | 1:56PM1.36m | 00:25AM1.74m | 2:22PM1.39m | 1:03AM1.69m | 2:48PM1.44m | 1:43AM1.61m | 3:14PM1.49m | 2:27AM1.51m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:16PM0.94m | 6:19AM-0.08m | 5:57PM0.91m | 6:53AM-0.11m | 6:34PM0.87m | 7:24AM-0.12m | 7:11PM0.82m | 7:54AM-0.12m | 7:47PM0.77m | 8:23AM-0.09m | 8:26PM0.70m | 8:52AM-0.02m | 9:09PM0.63m | |||||||
 |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — |
 | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:21 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Feels °C | 10 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 |
| kJ | 614 | 522 | 702 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 663 | 617 | 617 | 519 | 469 | 372 | 305 | 264 | 351 | 341 | 390 | 372 | 235 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 21 | SSW 11 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SSW 11 | S 18 | SW 9 | S 14 | SW 15 | — | SSW 14 | — | W 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 |
| kJ | 35 | 117 | 40 | 46 | 124 | 35 | 33 | 31 | 11 | 160 | 3 | 104 | 141 | — | 366 | — | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | SSW 11 | NW 10 | — | SSW 12 | S 10 | SSW 9 | SW 11 | SSE 16 | SSE 15 | S 15 | — | — | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | — | W 21 | W 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 |
| kJ | 17 | 40 | 4 | — | 56 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 51 | 79 | 109 | — | — | 42 | 186 | — | 9 | 8 | 15 | 15 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | NW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | — | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 |
| kJ | 191 | 154 | 115 | 329 | 286 | 229 | 471 | 441 | 270 | 759 | 620 | 444 | 649 | 476 | — | 253 | 382 | 315 | 666 | 807 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 144 | 32 | 48 | 144 | 48 | 48 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 48 | 48 | 144 | 26 | 32 | 240 | 26 | 26 | 145 | 26 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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