Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

We’re starting off a bit slow, but there’s a window of proper surf coming up if you’re patient. The first real chance to get wet kicks off on Friday, July 31st, but it’s not much to write home about. Drakes Estero has some swell, but the wind is a cross-off at 12 mph, and the wave energy is weak (676). The swell is a short 3 ft from the SSW, so it’s a beginner wave at best—not worth rushing out for.

Saturday, August 1st, sees the swell bumping up, but the wind gets nasty. By the afternoon, we’re looking at 8 ft from the WNW and a fresh breeze at 25 mph. That’s a lot of chop for a beach/river setup, and the energy is moderate (1021). It’s going to be a mess, and honestly, that kind of wind and size makes it more interesting for kiteboarding than paddle surfing.

Sunday, August 2nd, is a similar story. The swell hangs around 7 ft to 8 ft, but the wind is still cross-off and strong. The energy is up there (1149 by Sunday afternoon), but the quality is just not there for a clean paddle.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Monday, August 3rd, is the standout of this whole forecast. Drakes Estero wakes up. The morning is glassy—wind from the WSW at 3 mph, and it’s dead calm. Swell is a nice 7 ft from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, giving it real shape and power. The wave energy is strong (933). This is a long-period groundswell, so it’ll wrap in with some proper lines, but that period can make it a bit straight at a beach break. Still, with glassy conditions, this is the best you’ll see. The water temp is about average for the time of year, no weird anomalies to worry about.

After that Monday morning window, the surf drops off hard. The wind swings onshore from Tuesday, August 4th, through to Wednesday, August 5th, and the swell drops to 3 ft or less. The energy plummets, and it’s poor to marginal. Thursday, August 6th, you’re looking at tiny 2 ft waves with no energy to speak of (183). It’s a total flat spell.

We then hit a long gap of very small, weak surf from Friday, August 7th, through to Tuesday, August 11th. The swell is under 2 ft, and the period is long (14-19 seconds) but the height is just too small to do anything. The energy is weak to moderate (200-440 range), but don’t be fooled—it’s not surfable.

Then things pick up again in the second week, but it’s a different story. Wednesday, August 12th, into Thursday, August 13th, is your next best bet. The swell ticks up to 2 ft-3 ft from the SW, with a very long period of 16-18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy jumps to 746 on Wednesday afternoon and 617 on Thursday afternoon. Winds are light and cross-off or glassy. At a beach/river spot like Drakes Estero, that long period might make for a bit of a closeout, but for a point or reef, it would be magic. It’s still small, but it’ll be clean and fun for a longboard. The crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might have some company, but it’s not a zoo.

The outlook fades out after that, with tiny SW swell tapering off into the weekend. It’s a classic case of a few good days buried in a heap of mediocrity.

Rusty.

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