Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 am 11 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.3° C
0.1° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 11 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 15 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 1,247 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 12 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 7s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 2AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 7s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 15s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 10s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 2AM (Sun 12th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 7s
Best Surf11PM (Wed 15th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 8PM (Wed 15th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


Alright, it’s Rusty here, and let’s have a look at what Drakes Estero is serving up over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, this is a stretch where you’re gonna have to work for it. The opening weekend kicks off with a long-period SW groundswell Saturday morning, running at about 2 ft on a 15-second period, but it’s a cross-off wind from the northwest at 12 mph. That’s clean enough, but the wave energy is weak – only 385 – so it’s not gonna be pumping. The water temperature is sitting at 56°, which is spot on for this time of year, so nothing weird there. The problem is, that’s about as good as it gets for a while.

From Saturday afternoon all the way through the rest of the first week and into the second, we’re looking at a whole lot of "marginal" flags and some poor conditions tossed in. The swell bumpers up a bit on the 13th, but the period drops to 7 or 8 seconds, and the wind stays cross-off or cross, mostly from the NW at 12 to 19 mph. Lumpy, short-period stuff. The energy does climb into the moderate range – peaking just over 500 – but the quality just isn't there. Wednesday the 15th afternoon actually gets proper rowdy with 10 ft swell and an 8-second period, but that also brings a 28 mph NW wind and a massive 1272 combined energy reading. That’s expert-only territory and honestly, with the wind blasting like that, it might be more fun for kite surfers than paddle surfers.

There’s a big gap of days where nothing really stands out. We’re talking from the start through to the tail end of the third week – nothing worth calling a standout. The best chance you get is Saturday the 25th morning. That’s over a week away, so keep your expectations in check. Early that morning there’s a 2 ft SW groundswell with a long 21-second period, light WNW cross-off wind at 9 mph, and clean conditions. The combined energy is still weak at 434, but the setup looks tidy for a longboard or a fun shape. That’s the one session I’d keep an eye on. The swell direction matches the spot’s optimum, and the breeze will keep it looking nice.

After that, the rest of the 26th and into the final day, it fades back into mediocre territory with building wind.

So, bottom line: Don’t get your hopes up for anything epic. That Saturday the 25th morning window is your best bet – small, clean, and manageable. The rest is gonna have you scratching your head.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Sat morning). Mainly fresh winds.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed afternoon, min 11°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Tue morning, strong winds from the NW by Wed afternoon).

Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
0
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
1
2
0
1
2
1
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.7
SW
15
1.6
WNW
7
1.6
WNW
7
1.3
WNW
8
1.4
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
1.4
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
7
1.8
WNW
7
1.7
WNW
8
3
WNW
8
2.4
WNW
8
2.4
WNW
9
2
WNW
9
1.9
WNW
9
1.4
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
0.7
W
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
217
222
256
237
267
400
255
287
326
251
329
362
352
1121
829
864
643
588
311
257
254
Wind (km/h)
20
NW
25
NW
10
WNW
10
W
20
NW
20
NW
20
NW
25
NW
25
NW
15
WNW
30
NW
30
NW
30
NW
45
NW
35
NW
30
NW
35
NW
30
NW
20
WNW
25
WNW
15
WNW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
11:29AM1.25m
9:40PM1.99m
12:22PM1.33m
10:35PM2.05m
1:09PM1.40m
11:29PM2.06m
1:53PM1.45m
00:23AM2.02m
2:34PM1.49m
1:16AM1.93m
3:15PM1.53m
2:09AM1.79m
3:55PM1.58m
3:04AM1.60m
Low Tide
3:58PM0.88m
5:35AM-0.33m
5:00PM0.88m
6:25AM-0.42m
5:58PM0.85m
7:14AM-0.45m
6:55PM0.79m
8:00AM-0.43m
7:52PM0.72m
8:44AM-0.35m
8:50PM0.65m
9:27AM-0.22m
9:51PM0.59m
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:58
5:58
5:58
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:01
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:36
8:35
8:35
8:34
8:34
8:32
8:32
 mm
Temp °C
13
14
13
14
14
13
15
15
14
15
15
14
14
16
14
14
14
13
13
13
11
Feels °C
9
10
7
13
11
8
12
11
9
12
10
7
8
7
5
8
8
6
9
9
7
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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