Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and listen up. This is Rusty, and here’s the outlook for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.

Drakes Estero is a beach and river mouth setup, and we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag on the way. The water’s running a bit colder than normal for this time of year, coming in at 54°, which is a solid 3° below average. Not a shocker but you’ll want the thick rubber.

The action kicks off now, the morning of Sunday, 2nd August. We’ve got some clean, chest-high swell rolling in from the WNW at around 7 ft, period a decent 9 seconds. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze from the NW, keeping things tidy. Combined energy is solid at 924 – there’s some proper push in the water. This is a good, fun session for a medium-experience crew. The afternoon, however, gets a bit dicey as the wind picks up to 30 km/h from the NW, making it cross-off but bumpy. The swell bumps up slightly to 8 ft, but the energy climbs to 1078. It’ll be a bit of a wrestle, so morning is your window.

Monday 3rd August looks better for a glassy window. The morning is a write-off with onshore wind, but the afternoon goes glassy. Wind from the WSW at only 5 km/h, swell still a very clean 5 ft from the WNW at a 10-second interval. That’s a great little afternoon session with hardly a breath of wind. Energy is moderate at 565, so it will be fun but not a powerhouse.

We then hit a big quiet spell from Tuesday 4th August through to the end of the first week. The swell drops off to barely 3 ft, and the wind is onshore or just crossed up. By Friday 7th, we see tiny waves (1-2 ft) but note that period suddenly jumps to 18-19 seconds from the SW. That’s a long-period groundswell, but it’s so small it’s barely breaking. The energy reading is very low (205-343), so honestly, this stretch is a dud. You’re looking at 4-5 days with no real, rideable surf. A classic gap.

Now, hold onto your board. Sunday 9th August morning shows a big spike. The combined energy rockets to 2409 as a solid 8 ft NW swell rolls in at 10 seconds. The wind is light and cross-shore from the W, so the setup is questionable – that’s a lot of water moving with a cross-breeze to mess it up. This is big for this spot, over 8 ft, so strictly for experienced surfers who know the rip currents. It might be a wild, powerful day, but not the cleanest.

From Monday 10th August through to the middle of the month, we settle into a steady run of waist-to-chest high WNW swell (4 ft to 6 ft) with clean, cross-offshore winds from the WNW. The consistency picks up. Monday 10th is crossed up in the morning but cleans up in the afternoon. The highlight of this whole stretch looks like Thursday 13th August morning: a clean 5 ft from the WNW with light cross-offshore winds. Energy is 553 – good, solid, fun waves. The afternoon of the 13th is a no-go with a 40 km/h NW gale blowing.

Friday 14th August morning is another standout: 4 ft from the WNW, light cross-offshore wind (15 km/h), energy of 530. Clean, punchy, and fun for a range of abilities. Crowds are “sometimes” an issue here, so you might have company but nothing crazy.

The second week (from around 15th August onwards) is all about long-period SW groundswell (15-17 seconds), but the size is small (2-3 ft). The energy readings are moderate (350-626), but that long period means the waves will be very clean, well-shaped, and long-lined. The wind stays light and cross-off or cross-shore on most days. This is a tricky call – it won’t be big, but it could be remarkably clean and playful on a longer board. Keep an eye on it.

The absolute best bet for this whole outlook is the morning of Sunday 2nd August for the best combination of size and cleanliness, and if you miss that, the morning of Friday 14th August for the most reliable, clean, fun-size waves.

Rusty.

Read more