Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks. Rusty here. Let's chew the fat on what's coming our way.

Looking at the next couple of weeks, it's a real mixed bag. We start off with a long stretch of small, clean, but ultimately marginal surf at Drakes Estero. For the first few days, the swell is tiny, hanging around 2 to 3 feet, with a long period groundswell from the southwest. The wind is mostly light and clean, which is a major bonus – the afternoon sessions on Sunday the 19th, Monday the 20th, and Tuesday the 21st will see cross-offshore breezes, making the most of what little energy we have. The combined swell energy is moderate, ranging from 438 to 667 (moderate wave energy). The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is pretty much normal for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Honestly, for the first week, it's a bit of a grind. The waves are small, and while the conditions are clean, you'll be working hard for not much. The best of a weak bunch is probably the Sunday afternoon (19th July) and Monday afternoon (20th July), where we get a slight bump in size and still clean, cross-off winds. If you're a beginner, this is your window – the 3 foot swell is safe and forgiving.

The real story, and the standout session, is shaping up for Saturday morning, the 25th of July. We've got a 3 foot southwest groundswell, but the period is a very long 21 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1250 (strong wave energy). The wind is a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the WNW. This is the kind of long-period, groundswell that carries real punch. The sets will be more powerful and well-shaped, though with that long period, it might break a little too straight on the beach. This is definitely one for experienced surfers to get excited about.

The following week gets a bit messy. The wind picks up, and by Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th, we're seeing strong to near-gale force winds. The swell does get a bit bigger, pushing 3 to 4 feet, but the wind is too strong for clean surfing. This setup would be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

We do see another potential highlight on Thursday morning, the 30th of July. The swell is a solid 6 feet, but it's a short-period windswell from the northwest at just 8 seconds. The combined energy is strong at 1237 (strong wave energy). The wind is light and offshore, so it will be clean, but the short period means it's going to be a bit chunky and less organized. This is definitely expert-only territory at that size.

After that, the last few days of the forecast and into early August, the swell drops back down to small, clean conditions. The 31st of July and the 1st of August both have promising afternoons with light offshore winds and a small but clean 3 foot swell.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a waiting game for small, clean waves. Saturday the 25th is the clear standout for quality, but it's for the experienced crew. The 30th offers size but it's a short-period mess. The final days of July and first of August bring back the small, clean conditions.

Rusty.

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