Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, the 16-day window kicks off with a bit of a rough patch. The first few days are a mixed bag of onshore winds, messy conditions, and waves that just aren't playing nice. Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th are write-offs unless you're desperate for a battle. The wind is howling from the NW at 22 mph to 25 mph, making for a choppy, cross-off mess. The swell is there, but it’s not clean. You’ll want to sit this one out.

The real story starts to brew on Saturday the 18th. That morning, the wind drops right out to a light breeze from the WNW, and the swell settles into a clean 2 ft face. The period jumps to 16 seconds, so we’ve got proper groundswell moving in. The combined energy is moderate (575), and the water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year. That’s a solid little window where conditions are *very good*. It’s a small wave, but clean and lined up. That’s your best bet for the first week.

The weekend of the 19th and 20th keeps the trend going – small 3 ft to 4 ft groundswell from the SSW, with light winds and clean conditions. Monday morning the 20th is another standout: light WNW breeze, 4 ft of long-period swell (14s), and "very good" conditions. The energy is still moderate (708), but the setup is right for a slow, clean session. Crowds are "sometimes" at Drakes Estero, so expect some company.

Now, the second week gets interesting. Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th of July see a massive spike in combined swell energy, hitting 1291 and 1875. That’s moderate to strong energy, but the swell height is still only 2 ft to 3 ft. The period is very long – 24 seconds – which means the waves will be super slow, fat, and rolling through. That’s a point-break or reef style wave, not a beach break. The wind is cross-off from the NW, blowing 12 mph to 22 mph, so it’ll be clean but blown out. For the experienced surfer who knows how to read a long-period swell, there’s a chance at a fun, mellow ride. It’s a promising but less certain call. The following days, from the 26th to the 31st, drift back to smaller, cleaner conditions with moderate energy, but nothing that screams "drop everything and go."

Overall, the standout window is Saturday the 18th through Monday the 20th. Small, clean, and lined up. The end of the month has that big energy pulse, but it’s a specialist’s wave. If you’re a beginner, that 6 ft to 6 ft stuff on the 16th and 17th is too big for you anyway.

Rusty.

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