Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 am 12 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
14.5° C
0.2° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 12 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 16 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 502 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 12 Aug, 5PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 8s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 5PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 11PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 5PM (Wed 12th Aug)4.5ft (1.3m) 8s
Best Surf 5AM (Sun 16th Aug)3.5ft (1.0m) 16s
Most Powerful 2AM (Sun 16th Aug)3.5ft (1.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up for our local stretch.

Right now, things are pretty flat and messy. We’ve got a bit of a lull to start, with the first few days looking pretty poor. The water’s sitting at 58°, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real window of opportunity comes on Friday, August 14th in the afternoon. Drakes Estero might be small, with 2ft of swell from the SSW, but the period is a very long 18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and with a clean cross-off breeze, those waves will be nicely shaped. The combined energy is moderate at 399. The only thing to keep in mind is that a long period like this can make beach breaks a bit tricky, but for a spot like this, it should set up nicely.

We then get a bit of a run of mornings. Monday, August 17th morning is looking good too – 3ft from the SW with a 14-second period, clean cross-off wind, and moderate energy at 356. It’s a consistent little run for a few days. Then, Wednesday, August 19th morning is a standout for me. The swell is 3ft from the SSW, 15-second period, but the real magic is the glassy conditions – zero wind. That’s a rare treat, delivering clean, smooth lines. The energy is moderate at 381. The crowds here can be around sometimes, but with the glass, it’s a great time to be out.

The second week gets a bit more interesting energy-wise. Monday, August 24th afternoon has 5ft from the WNW, 8-second period, with clean cross-off wind and moderate energy (480). Then Tuesday, August 25th afternoon sees the swell bump up to 5ft from the NW, energy climbing to 791 (strong), but that 8-second period is a bit short and choppy, and the wind is a moderate breeze. It’s a bit more of a mixed bag, but still worth a look for the size.

The very end of the outlook, Thursday, August 27th afternoon, is a solid note to finish on. 2ft from the SW, 18-second period, clean cross-off, and the energy is moderate at 563. It’s a promising long-range call, but you know how it is – we’ll keep an eye on it.

So, my pick of the whole period? Wednesday, August 19th morning. The glassy conditions with that 3ft, 15-second SSW groundswell are going to be a dream. Get out there.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 12°C on Wed morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 11°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
Friday
14
Saturday
15
Sunday
16
Monday
17
Tuesday
18
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
2
1
0
0
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.2
WNW
8
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.9
SW
17
0.7
SW
16
1
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
15
0.9
SW
15
0.9
SW
15
0.7
SW
14
1.4
NW
8
0.6
SSW
16
1.3
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
243
217
294
223
197
191
174
221
252
414
268
502
362
349
309
309
309
214
229
171
209
Wind (km/h)
15
SSE
5
W
10
SSW
15
S
15
WSW
10
W
10
SSW
15
W
15
WNW
10
WSW
15
W
20
NW
10
WSW
15
WNW
15
WNW
5
WSW
20
WNW
25
NW
25
NW
40
NW
35
NW
Wind State
cross-on
glassy
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
1:19PM1.52m
00:18AM1.93m
1:54PM1.57m
1:09AM1.82m
2:29PM1.62m
2:01AM1.68m
3:03PM1.65m
2:54AM1.51m
3:36PM1.67m
3:52AM1.34m
4:11PM1.66m
5:02AM1.20m
4:48PM1.64m
Low Tide
6:49PM0.62m
7:35AM-0.23m
7:41PM0.52m
8:14AM-0.12m
8:33PM0.45m
8:52AM0.03m
9:25PM0.39m
9:29AM0.22m
10:19PM0.35m
10:07AM0.42m
11:17PM0.33m
10:49AM0.62m
00:20AM0.31m
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clear
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:22
6:24
6:24
6:26
6:26
6:28
6:28
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:08
8:07
8:06
8:05
8:04
8:01
8:00
 mm
Temp °C
14
15
13
14
14
14
14
14
13
14
14
12
14
14
12
14
13
12
14
15
13
Feels °C
12
14
12
13
12
13
13
12
11
13
12
9
13
13
9
14
11
9
10
8
5
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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