
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 1,082 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 3 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 03) at 5PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 2AM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5PM (Fri 3rd Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Drakes Estero's got cookin' for us over the next couple of weeks.
We're starting off pretty quiet, but there's some promise lurking further out. This spot is a beach/river mouth setup, exposed to the southwest, and it's a beginner-friendly zone. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing weird going on there.
The first real glimmer of hope comes on Friday morning the 3rd of July. We've got a clean 2ft southwest groundswell rolling in, with a long 15-second period and a light southerly breeze. It's not big, but the energy is moderate (341) and the conditions look super clean. By Friday afternoon, that same swell bumps up a touch to 2ft, the period stretches to 16 seconds, and we get a cross-offshore wind from the WNW. Energy picks up nicely to 419, and the forecast is pointing to good surf. This is the standout session early on – small but clean and fun for the longboard or a foiling session.
Now, Saturday the 4th and Sunday the 5th? Forget it. We get a junky 4ft short-period WNW windswell on Saturday morning with onshore wind, and then it all drops back to small, weak stuff with poor surf conditions. That's a couple of write-off days.
Monday the 6th of July through to Thursday the 10th of July is a mixed bag. The swell stays small and mostly marginal, but the winds are consistently cross-offshore from the NW or WNW, which keeps the surface glassy. The best of that average period is Wednesday morning the 8th of July – we have a 3ft SW swell with a moderate energy reading (1325), and the conditions are clean. Not a head-high gem, but a workable wave if you're keen.
We then hit a real punchy patch. On Thursday the 9th of July, the swell jumps up. Morning sees 7ft from the WNW, but it's a short 8-second period, so it'll be lumpy and fat. The energy is strong (1005). By the afternoon, it's 8ft from the WNW, still short-period, with fresh NW winds. That's getting into expert-only territory – heavy, fast, and draining. Not beginner-friendly at all.
Friday the 10th of July is still solid but cleaner, with 6ft to 7ft WNW swell and moderate energy. Saturday the 11th drops a bit to 6ft to 7ft, but with a mix of cross and cross-off winds. By Sunday the 12th, it all falls apart again – poor conditions kick in and the swell plunges to 2ft with strong winds. The rest of the second week, from the 13th to the 18th of July, looks mostly poor to marginal, with small, short-period swell and strong cross-offshore winds making it choppy and unappealing.
The absolute best on offer is that small, clean window on Friday the 3rd of July. If you miss that, Wednesday morning the 8th of July gives a chance at some clean, playful waves. The bigger stuff later in the first week is for experienced surfers only and isn't really backed by good quality.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon morning, strong winds from the NW by Wed afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 3 | Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thu 9 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 18 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 19 | SSW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 9 | SW 16 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
207 | 171 | 255 | 202 | 161 | 184 | 140 | 252 | 249 | 157 | 318 | 224 | 388 | 303 | 465 | 455 | 600 | 521 | 531 | 547 | 920 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross-on | on | cross | cross-on | on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:54AM1.61m | 4:10PM1.36m | 2:36AM1.51m | 4:40PM1.41m | 3:23AM1.39m | 5:12PM1.48m | 4:21AM1.25m | 5:46PM1.55m | 5:37AM1.12m | 6:24PM1.64m | 7:15AM1.04m | 7:06PM1.73m | 8:59AM1.06m | 7:54PM1.83m | |||||||
Low Tide | 8:48PM0.87m | 9:27AM-0.14m | 9:34PM0.83m | 10:00AM-0.06m | 10:27PM0.77m | 10:35AM0.05m | 11:29PM0.67m | 11:14AM0.20m | 00:36AM0.54m | 11:57AM0.37m | 1:44AM0.37m | 12:48PM0.55m | 2:48AM0.17m | 1:48PM0.71m | |||||||
— | 5:52 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | |
8:37 | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:36 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 9 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 12 | WNW 11 | WNW 8 | SW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 8 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SW 16 |
165 | 161 | 147 | 202 | 161 | 136 | 140 | 169 | 143 | 157 | 150 | 158 | 211 | 153 | 465 | 455 | 264 | 521 | 381 | 458 | 376 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 18 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SSW 19 | SW 13 | — | — |
207 | 171 | 255 | 201 | 102 | 140 | 140 | 252 | 249 | 152 | 318 | 206 | 388 | 303 | 104 | 104 | 600 | 124 | 46 | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | S 11 | W 15 | W 14 | W 14 | SW 19 | SW 19 | WNW 12 | W 13 | SW 13 | WNW 12 | SW 21 | SW 16 | WNW 11 | S 8 | SSW 11 | — | — | — | — | — |
75 | 9 | 17 | 16 | 33 | 184 | 96 | 50 | 86 | 85 | 81 | 224 | 206 | 99 | 1 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 6 | — | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 131 | 77 | — | 270 | 362 | 461 | 392 | 531 | 547 | 920 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 23 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 145 | 37 | 23 | 145 | 48 | 490 | 145 | 32 | 48 | 145 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 133 | 26 | 145 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











