Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 pm 08 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
14.6° C
0.3° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 9 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,185 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 9 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 10s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 09) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8AM (Sun 9th Aug)5ft (1.6m) 10s
Best Surf 5AM (Mon 10th Aug)8ft (2.5m) 9s
Most Powerful 2AM (Mon 10th Aug)8ft (2.5m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s break it down.

We’re looking at a tricky stretch at Drakes Estero over the next sixteen days. There’s one real highlight early, then a long, flat lull, and the second half of the run is mostly a no-go. The best call is the opening Sunday.

Sunday, August 9th is your day. The morning’s a winner: some clouds, a light 10 km/h cross-off breeze from the WNW, and a solid 5ft swell from the same direction. The period is 10 seconds, so there’s proper juice and shape – combined energy sits at 607, moderate but solid. It’s clean, it’s well-formed, and that’s the best wave of the whole forecast. The afternoon bumps up to 6ft, but the wind jumps to 25 km/h, so the shine wears off. Morning is the money window.

Monday, August 10th is a step down. Morning is cross-shore and a bit bumpy at 5ft, but the afternoon cleans up with 4ft and a better wind angle. Worth a look if you missed Sunday, but that’s it.

Then it goes south. From Tuesday, August 11th through Thursday, August 14th, it’s all onshore wind – SSE straight into the face – and the surf goes small and weak. Don’t bother.

Friday, August 15th to Monday, August 18th, we get some long-period groundswell (15–18 seconds), but it’s small – 2ft to 4ft – and the wind’s no good (onshore or cross-on). At a beach/river spot like this, that kind of long-period swell just rolls in straight and weak. Not worth the paddle.

There’s a tiny clean window on Wednesday, August 20th, with 3ft and light cross-off winds, but it’s barely enough to get wet. Energy’s low at 417.

The last glimmer is Friday, August 22nd and Saturday, August 23rd. Swell picks up to 5ft – 5ft, but the period is short (8 seconds), making it fat and bumpy. Winds are cross-off but gusty. The combined energy is moderate, but the short period and chop mean it’s more of a kite-surfing scene than a clean surf session. Saturday morning (August 23rd) is the better of the two, with lighter wind, but it’s still no match for that first Sunday.

To wrap it up: Sunday, August 9th morning is your one clear standout. After that, expect a long gap with very little worth mentioning until the tail end of the second week. Water temp is about normal for this time of year.

Get out early on the 9th, because that’s the peak.

– Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun morning, min 12°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat night, fresh winds from the NW by Sun night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Fri afternoon, min 12°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
9
Monday
10
Tuesday
11
Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
Friday
14
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
3
1
3
2
2
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.4
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
10
1.7
WNW
9
2.5
NW
9
1.6
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.4
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
10
1.1
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.1
WNW
8
1.1
WNW
9
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
SW
18
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
242
402
530
1185
407
280
313
284
199
249
228
173
181
165
196
191
137
223
255
Wind (km/h)
5
SSE
10
WNW
25
NW
20
NW
10
W
15
WNW
10
S
15
SSE
10
W
10
S
15
SSE
15
S
20
S
25
SSE
15
S
10
SE
15
SSE
10
SSW
10
SSE
Wind State
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
on
on
cross
on
on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
8:28PM1.90m
11:17AM1.32m
9:31PM1.96m
12:01PM1.40m
10:30PM1.99m
12:41PM1.46m
11:25PM1.98m
1:19PM1.52m
00:18AM1.93m
1:54PM1.57m
1:09AM1.82m
2:29PM1.62m
2:01AM1.68m
Low Tide
4:30AM-0.16m
3:59PM0.91m
5:23AM-0.25m
5:00PM0.83m
6:10AM-0.30m
5:56PM0.73m
6:54AM-0.29m
6:49PM0.62m
7:35AM-0.23m
7:41PM0.52m
8:14AM-0.12m
8:33PM0.45m
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:20
6:22
6:22
6:22
6:24
6:24
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:13
8:12
8:10
8:09
8:08
8:07
8:06
 mm
Temp °C
13
16
15
13
14
14
12
15
15
13
14
15
14
15
16
15
16
17
15
Feels °C
13
14
11
7
13
13
10
13
14
12
11
12
11
11
14
15
14
15
15
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  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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