Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a long, hard look at the next couple of weeks at Drakes Estero.

We've got a bit of a rough patch ahead before things start to look up. The first week is basically a write-off for anything quality, with a lot of wind and messy, short-period swell. You’ll want to keep your board in the bag from the start. There is a gap of several days here with no real recommendations as the conditions just aren't coming together.

The real hope is for the Friday morning of July 17th. That’s where we see a genuine standout. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual to report.

Now, for the specifics. Drakes Estero is a beach and river mouth setup, and it's fairly consistent but exposed to the swell.

Monday July 6th through to Thursday July 16th – Look, I’ll be honest, this stretch is a slog. We’ve got a persistent cross-offshore breeze from the NW that’s mostly a fresh breeze or stronger, cranking up to 28 mph at times. The swell is there, but it’s mostly short-period (8-9 seconds) windswell, so the energy is weak to moderate (combined energy 515-1746). The size fluctuates from a tiny 2 ft up to a messy 8 ft, but for a beach break like this, that short period makes it dumpy and hard to surf. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing through this period. Even though the wave face might look clean, the quality is poor and the scores are low. Hold off.

Friday July 17th – This is the day. There are two standout windows. Friday morning (July 17th) we finally get a reprieve. The wind eases right back to a gentle breeze from the WNW at 9 mph, keeping it cross-off and clean. We get a 6 ft swell from the WNW with a period of 9 seconds, with strong, powerful energy (combined energy 976). This will offer the best chance of a decent, surfable wave. Then Friday afternoon the swell pushes up to 8 ft from the WNW, but the period is still 9 seconds. The energy is very strong (combined energy 1365), but at that size it’s getting into the "experts only" territory, especially with the short period and beach break setup.

Saturday July 18th – A solid follow-up. Saturday morning looks very promising with a light breeze from the WNW at 6 mph, giving us clean conditions. The swell is a manageable 6 ft from the WNW, with moderate to strong energy (combined energy 918). That is a great morning to get out.

Sunday July 19th to Tuesday July 21st – The surf backs off. The swell drops back to 4 ft to 6 ft, and the wind picks back up to a moderate to fresh breeze. The energy drops off significantly (combined energy 498-730). It’s not going to be terrible, but it’s a definite step down from the weekend.

So, to wrap it up: if you want a wave, wait for Friday July 17th morning for the best combination of size, wind, and power. Saturday July 18th morning is your next best bet for a slightly smaller, clean session. The rest of the window? Leave it be.

Rusty.

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