Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming down the pipe for Drakes Estero. It's a bit of a mixed bag, but we've got some windows to work with.

Right off the bat, there's not much for the first couple of days. The swell is small and the wind is messy. The water temp is sitting at about 56°, which is pretty much what you'd expect for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

We finally get a glimmer of hope on Sunday morning the 12th. The waves are a modest 4ft from the WNW, but the wind is glassy. That's the key. It's going to be clean as a whistle, so if you're a beginner, that's your time to get out there. The wave energy is moderate (467), and the period is a short 8 seconds, so it won't be a world-beater, but it'll be fun.

The wind turns a bit cross-off on Sunday afternoon, and the swell holds, but the glass is gone. Monday the 13th stays similar, with a bit more size pushing 6ft from the NW in the morning, but again, it's cross-off. The energy is ramping up to 902 by then, but the wind is the limiting factor.

Things get a bit hairy by Thursday afternoon the 16th. The swell is predicted to hit 10ft from the WNW. That's a lot of water. The combined energy is a strong 1187, but honestly, that's too big for this spot. It's going to be a washing machine. That's for experts only, and even then, it's a gamble.

The standouts in this whole run are going to be the Sunday morning, July 12th, for the clean, glassy conditions on a manageable 4ft swell. For a bigger wave, look at the morning of Monday, July 21st. We've got a 5ft swell from the WNW with a light cross-shore breeze, and the energy is moderate (557). It's not perfect, but it's the most consistent-looking option in the second week. The crowd factor is listed as "sometimes", so you might have some company, but it's not a circus.

The end of the run from the 25th into the 26th has some long-period groundswell (20-21 seconds) from the SW, but the size is small at 3ft to 4ft. The energy is actually high (over 1000), but that long period with a small wave at a beach/river setup can be weird and straight. It's a bit of a tease.

So, to sum it up: the best bet for clean, fun waves is July 12th morning. If you want a bit more size and don't mind a breeze, July 21st morning is your next best call. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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