
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 26 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 2 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 2 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,201 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 8s period with NW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.3m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.7m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.9m and 14s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 8AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 5PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Sat 1st Aug) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 8AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up for Drakes Estero. The next few days are looking pretty average, but there’s a glimmer of good stuff if you’re patient. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 60°.
Things kick off this Sunday the 26th of July, and honestly, it’s not much to write home about. We’ve got a 3ft swell rolling in from the southwest, with a long 19-second period. That’s proper groundswell, but with a 19 mph cross-offshore wind from the northwest, the wave energy is moderate (695). It’s clean, but the overall vibe is just marginal. The wind picks up in the afternoon, making it a tough call.
Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th are more of the same. The swell picks up a touch to 4ft, still out of the southwest, with a solid 18-second period. The wind stays cross-offshore from the northwest, but it’s a fresh to strong breeze, so the surface is clean but bumpy. The wave energy on Monday afternoon jumps to strong (1294), and Tuesday afternoon hits very strong (1280), but the conditions just aren’t coming together for a standout session.
Wednesday the 29th is a bit of a turning point. The morning still has that 4ft southwest swell, but the wind drops to a moderate breeze. The energy is strong (1006). Then the afternoon shifts – the swell size jumps to 8ft, coming from the west-northwest, but the period drops right off to a short 8 seconds. That’s bumpy, wind-affected stuff, and the wave energy is very strong (1650). The wind is a bit stronger too, so it’s messy.
Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st keep the pattern going. Morning sessions offer a 3ft to 7ft mix of swells and moderate breezes, but the afternoon sees a return of that 8ft short-period, bumpy energy. On Friday afternoon, the swell drops back to 3ft from the south-southwest with a 14-second period, which is nicer, but the wind is still fresh.
Now, here’s the one that’s got my attention. Saturday the 1st of August. The morning is the standout. The wind goes light and glassy, a 6 mph breeze from the west-northwest, which is cross-offshore. The swell is a solid 7ft from the northwest, with an 8-second period. That’s a bit short and a bit big – over 8ft would be expert-only, but this is still in the “experienced surfer” zone. The wave energy is very strong (1339). For a beach/river setup, that short period will keep things punchy. This is where you want to be.
Sunday the 2nd of August morning has a similar 8ft swell from the northwest, energy is very strong (1743), but the wind is a moderate breeze, so it’s not as clean as Saturday.
After that, it fades. From the 3rd of August through the 10th, we see smaller swells, mostly 1ft to 6ft, with poor onshore or cross-onshore winds kicking in. The wave energy drops significantly, and the conditions turn marginal or poor. There’s a little flicker on the 8th of August with a 2ft south-southwest swell and a clean cross-offshore breeze, but it’s tiny.
Overall, the best bet in this 16-day window is the morning of Saturday the 1st of August at Drakes Estero. The lighter winds and that 7ft northwest swell should offer some fun, punchy waves. It’s a bit short-period, so it’ll be a bit lumpy, but for the beach break, that can work. Crowds are possible at this spot, so get in early.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 12°C on Sun night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed morning, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Wed night, light winds from the NW by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
627 | 614 | 522 | 702 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 655 | 617 | 791 | 605 | 475 | 910 | 545 | 557 | 437 | 434 | 604 | 601 | 909 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 12:28PM1.31m | 10:26PM1.75m | 1:00PM1.33m | 11:07PM1.76m | 1:30PM1.34m | 11:46PM1.76m | 1:56PM1.36m | 00:25AM1.74m | 2:22PM1.39m | 1:03AM1.69m | 2:48PM1.44m | 1:43AM1.61m | 3:14PM1.49m | 2:27AM1.51m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:16PM0.94m | 6:19AM-0.08m | 5:57PM0.91m | 6:53AM-0.11m | 6:34PM0.87m | 7:24AM-0.12m | 7:11PM0.82m | 7:54AM-0.12m | 7:47PM0.77m | 8:23AM-0.09m | 8:26PM0.70m | 8:52AM-0.02m | 9:09PM0.63m | ||||||||
6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | |
— | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:21 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 12 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | WNW 8 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 |
627 | 614 | 522 | 702 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 655 | 617 | 617 | 519 | 475 | 372 | 376 | 315 | 437 | 356 | 343 | 303 | 242 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 21 | SSW 11 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SSW 11 | S 18 | SW 9 | S 14 | S 15 | — | SSW 14 | SW 15 | W 21 | SSW 13 | SW 19 | SW 19 |
35 | 35 | 117 | 40 | 54 | 124 | 35 | 33 | 31 | 11 | 160 | 3 | 103 | 159 | — | 443 | 75 | 9 | 384 | 15 | 15 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | S 10 | SSW 11 | NW 10 | — | SSW 12 | S 10 | SSW 9 | SW 11 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | S 14 | — | SW 15 | SSW 15 | SSE 11 | — | — | W 20 | — | SW 19 |
33 | 17 | 40 | 4 | — | 56 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 51 | 82 | 107 | — | 141 | 42 | 11 | — | — | 8 | — | 15 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 |
66 | 238 | 164 | 111 | 329 | 313 | 229 | 458 | 414 | 327 | 791 | 605 | 422 | 910 | 545 | 557 | 392 | 434 | 604 | 601 | 909 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 48 | 147 | 59 | 48 | 144 | 135 | 48 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 145 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 26 | 26 | 144 | 23 | 0 | 470 | 26 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










