Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 4 am 08 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
14.2° C
0.1° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 8 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 9 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 9s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,132 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 8 Aug, 2PM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 18s period with SSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 08) at 2PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 2PM (Sat 8th Aug)2ft (0.6m) 18s
Best Surf 5AM (Sun 9th Aug)8ft (2.4m) 9s
Most Powerful 2AM (Mon 10th Aug)8ft (2.5m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let's be real with you about the next couple of weeks. It's not going to be a wild ride, but there are a couple of moments worth keeping an eye on.

We’re starting off with Drakes Estero (Drakes-Estero) in a waiting game. The water temp is about 58°F, which is normal for this time of year, nothing weird there. The first few days are pretty marginal. Saturday the 8th has some small, long-period swell pushing in from the SSW at about 2ft, but the wind is all over the place and the energy is weak. It's a bit of a tease, honestly. We see the swell pick up on Sunday morning to about 6ft from the WNW, but the period drops and the energy is only moderate. It’s clean, but the power just isn't there to make it special.

The middle of the week sees the size drop but the wind turns onshore, making things a mess. Wednesday and Thursday are write-offs. The swell is weak and the onshore flow will chop it all up. A classic case of “don’t bother”.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. As we move into the second week, the wind finally clears out, and we get a proper window. On Saturday the 16th, we've got a 4ft SW groundswell with a long 15-second period. The energy is building, and with light offshore and cross-offshore winds predicted, it's going to be clean. This looks like the standout of the whole period. A long-period swell like that will love a spot like this. It’s not huge, but it'll be glassy and have some push to it.

The other highlight, and this is one to keep on the radar for 7 days out, is Wednesday the 19th. The swell is due to build through the day, hitting nearly 7ft from the WNW in the afternoon. The energy jumps up to a strong level. The winds are cross-offshore and moderate, so it should hold shape. That size is getting into the fun zone, but remember, anything over 8ft is expert territory. This is right on the cusp, so it could be a great session for the more experienced crew. Don't expect the place to be empty, because a clean 6ft+ day will bring people out.

The weekend after that (the 22nd and 23rd) fades out. The period drops to a short, crumbly 7-8 seconds on Saturday with fresh winds, making it poor. Sunday cleans up a bit with a 4ft WNW swell and a light offshore breeze, so there might be a small, clean wave for the logs, but the energy is weak.

So, to wrap it up: don't waste your time this week. Wait for the glassy dawny on Saturday the 16th for the cleanest waves, and keep an eye on Wednesday the 19th for some real power. The long-range calls are promising, but they're just that – promising. We'll see how it fills in.

Rusty out.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun morning, min 12°C on Sat morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Sun night, calm by Mon night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed afternoon, min 12°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Saturday
8
Sunday
9
Monday
10
Tuesday
11
Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
Friday
14
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
3
2
1
3
2
1
2
1
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
SSW
17
2
WNW
9
1.7
WNW
10
1.7
WNW
9
2.5
NW
9
1.6
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.4
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.5
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
8
1.2
WNW
10
1
WNW
12
1
WNW
12
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
SW
18
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
204
202
632
533
497
1132
415
280
307
244
249
354
286
222
310
285
280
191
174
223
252
Wind (km/h)
10
W
20
WNW
10
NW
15
NW
30
NW
20
NW
5
WSW
10
W
5
SSW
10
S
10
W
5
S
20
SSE
15
S
20
SSE
20
SSE
15
SSE
15
SSE
10
S
10
WSW
5
WNW
Wind State
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross
glassy
on
cross-off
on
on
on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-off
High Tide
10:25AM1.23m
8:28PM1.90m
11:17AM1.32m
9:31PM1.96m
12:01PM1.40m
10:30PM1.99m
12:41PM1.46m
11:25PM1.98m
1:19PM1.52m
00:18AM1.93m
1:54PM1.57m
1:09AM1.82m
2:29PM1.62m
2:01AM1.68m
Low Tide
2:48PM0.94m
4:30AM-0.16m
3:59PM0.91m
5:23AM-0.25m
5:00PM0.83m
6:10AM-0.30m
5:56PM0.73m
6:54AM-0.29m
6:49PM0.62m
7:35AM-0.23m
7:41PM0.52m
8:14AM-0.12m
8:33PM0.45m
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:20
6:20
6:22
6:22
6:22
6:24
6:24
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:13
8:12
8:10
8:09
8:08
8:07
8:06
 mm
Temp °C
15
14
14
16
15
13
14
15
13
15
15
12
15
16
14
15
16
15
17
17
15
Feels °C
14
12
13
13
11
7
13
14
12
14
14
10
12
13
13
13
14
14
16
16
15
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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