Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 4 am 05 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.2° C
1.0° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 5 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,283 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 5 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 9s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Wed 5th Aug)2.5ft (0.8m) 9s
Best Surf 2AM (Mon 10th Aug)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Most Powerful 2AM (Mon 10th Aug)10ft (3.0m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a slow starter, but there’s a glimmer of hope further out.

Right now, the first few days are pretty flat. From Wednesday the 5th through to Saturday morning the 8th, we’re looking at tiny waves around 1 ft to 2 ft from the SW. The winds are a bit messy, mostly cross-onshore or cross, and the water temp is about average for this time of year. It’s really just not worth paddling out for. You’ll be bobbing around more than surfing.

The real action starts to pick up on Sunday the 9th. The swell jumps to a solid 5 ft to 6 ft from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds. The combined swell energy is moderate (691 to 768). The winds are cross-offshore from the NW, which is a huge plus and will keep things clean. This is a bit of a chunky, short-period swell, so it'll be a bit punchy, but the conditions will be good. It’s not too big for the average surfer, but beginners might find it a bit much.

Monday the 10th sees similar sized swell, 5 ft to 6 ft from the WNW, but the morning looks glassy with a light breeze before the wind picks up a bit in the afternoon.

The standout moment, the one that gets the heart pumping, looks like the morning of Tuesday the 18th of August. We’ve got a solid 5 ft swell from the NW, but the period is a short 8 seconds. Combined swell energy is strong (775). The winds are light and cross-offshore from the WNW, which will leave the surface clean. The swell is a bit dumpy and short-period, so it’s more for the experienced crew who can handle a steep, fast wave. It won’t be a long, drawn-out groundswell, but the power and the clean conditions will make for some fun, punchy walls.

The afternoon of the 15th of August is also worth a mention. The swell drops to 3 ft from the SW, but with a long 16-second period, and very light offshore winds. The combined energy is moderate (569). This is a beautiful, clean, long-period groundswell, perfect for the longboard or a fish. The sets will be few and far between, but the waves that come through will be lined up and smooth. It’s a proper glassy session in the making.

After that, conditions remain surfable but nothing special, with a few small windows of clean surf right through to the 20th.

So, if you’re looking for a day to circle, the 18th of August is the one for the powerful, short-period punch, and the 15th of August afternoon is the one for the clean, long-period glide.

Rusty out.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
Friday
7
Saturday
8
Sunday
9
Monday
10
Tuesday
11
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
2
1
1
2
3
1
!
2
2
3
1
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
WNW
8
0.4
SW
14
0.6
SW
13
0.5
SW
13
0.5
SW
13
0.4
SW
18
0.4
SW
18
0.5
SW
19
0.5
SW
16
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
SSW
17
2
WNW
9
2.3
NW
9
1.7
WNW
9
3
NW
9
1.6
WNW
9
1.4
WNW
9
1.6
WNW
9
1.4
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.7
WNW
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
69
68
111
84
84
81
85
181
133
204
202
660
826
519
1283
398
326
407
333
286
480
Wind (km/h)
10
S
10
SW
5
SSW
10
SW
15
WNW
10
WNW
10
WSW
15
WNW
15
WNW
10
W
15
WNW
20
NW
20
NW
30
WNW
10
NW
5
WSW
15
WNW
5
SE
5
W
20
NW
10
W
Wind State
on
cross-on
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
glassy
cross
cross-off
cross
High Tide
5:31PM1.74m
7:31AM1.07m
6:23PM1.79m
9:12AM1.13m
7:24PM1.84m
10:25AM1.23m
8:28PM1.90m
11:17AM1.32m
9:31PM1.96m
12:01PM1.40m
10:30PM1.99m
12:41PM1.46m
11:25PM1.98m
Low Tide
11:16AM0.61m
1:10AM0.24m
12:12PM0.78m
2:23AM0.11m
1:27PM0.90m
3:30AM-0.03m
2:48PM0.94m
4:30AM-0.16m
3:59PM0.91m
5:23AM-0.25m
5:00PM0.83m
6:10AM-0.30m
5:56PM0.73m
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:16
6:18
6:18
6:20
6:20
6:22
6:22
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:16
8:15
8:14
8:13
8:12
8:10
8:09
 mm
Temp °C
15
16
14
16
15
13
14
14
12
15
15
13
15
14
13
15
15
12
14
14
12
Feels °C
13
15
14
16
14
11
13
12
9
14
13
9
12
11
8
14
15
10
13
13
8
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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