
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 27 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 10s period, NW swell with 2,068 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 1.6m and 8s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 2PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8AM (Fri 31st Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 11PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking.
Honestly, the next 16 days are a tough watch for the dedicated surfer. We’re looking at a long stretch of clean but weak, wind-battered, and mostly unsurfable conditions. The only real spot on the radar is Drakes Estero, and even then, it’s a battle to find a window.
The patch starts on Monday the 27th of July. Drakes Estero is showing a beautiful, long-period groundswell from the southwest, around 4 ft with a period of 18 seconds. That’s proper energy (combined energy of 746), but it’s being hammered by a strong cross-offshore breeze of 19 mph. The water is a very noticeable 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The problem is that the forecast keeps calling it “marginal,” and the numbers back it up—this isn’t the day to paddle out.
Tuesday and Wednesday are more of the same: clean conditions, but the cross-offshore wind is just too strong, blowing at 19 to 25 mph. The swell stays around 4 ft, but the energy is moderate (914 to 1287). The wind is ripping the surface to shreds, making it look better for kite surfing than for a paddle board.
Thursday the 30th sees the swell jump up to 8 ft from the west-northwest, but the period drops to a short, weak 8 seconds. The wind is still a stiff 25 mph cross-off. That’s a messy, choppy, and dangerous combo for a beginner-friendly spot. It’s too big for beginners and too wind-blown for anyone else.
Friday the 31st offers a brief glimmer. The morning shows a 3 ft swell from the south-southwest with a 14-second period, and a moderate breeze of 12 mph. The energy is moderate (789). It’s clean, but it’s still marginal. The afternoon tries to pick up to 5 ft but with a short 7-second period. It’s a no-go.
Saturday the 1st of August is a write-off. The swell is 8 ft from the west-northwest, but the wind hits 31 mph in the afternoon—a near gale. The surf is rated as poor. Sunday the 2nd is similar: 8 ft, 9-second swell, with fresh wind. Just ugly.
The first week of August is a dead zone. The swell drops to tiny 1.0 ft to 4 ft, the wind turns onshore from the south, and the energy falls to weak levels. From Monday the 3rd through to Sunday the 9th, it’s a mix of poor surf conditions and light onshore winds. The only real standout is Friday the 7th of August, when the morning goes glassy with a 2 ft, 19-second south-southwest groundswell. The energy is very weak (279), but the glassy conditions are a rare treat. It’s a tiny, clean, long-period wave that will be better suited for a point or reef than a beach break, but it’s the best we’ve got.
The final few days, from the 9th to the 11th, are back to marginal, with onshore winds and small, mixed-up swell. The 11th of August morning offers a 2 ft, 19-second swell from the southwest, but the onshore wind and moderate energy (573) keep it from being anything special.
If you’ve got a longboard and a desperate need to get wet, the glassy dawn patrol on Friday the 7th of August is the only true standout. The rest of the window is a solid wait-and-see, with a heavy emphasis on the “wait.” Forecasts can change, but right now, the Pacific is not playing ball.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Mon night, light winds from the NW by Wed morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Fri morning, strong winds from the NW by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | NW 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
702 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 663 | 617 | 770 | 605 | 476 | 759 | 441 | 366 | 264 | 436 | 686 | 994 | 1014 | 765 | 1104 | 2068 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 1:00PM1.33m | 11:07PM1.76m | 1:30PM1.34m | 11:46PM1.76m | 1:56PM1.36m | 00:25AM1.74m | 2:22PM1.39m | 1:03AM1.69m | 2:48PM1.44m | 1:43AM1.61m | 3:14PM1.49m | 2:27AM1.51m | 3:42PM1.55m | 3:17AM1.37m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:57PM0.91m | 6:53AM-0.11m | 6:34PM0.87m | 7:24AM-0.12m | 7:11PM0.82m | 7:54AM-0.12m | 7:47PM0.77m | 8:23AM-0.09m | 8:26PM0.70m | 8:52AM-0.02m | 9:09PM0.63m | 9:23AM0.09m | 9:58PM0.55m | ||||||||
6:09 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | |
— | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:21 | — | — | 8:20 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 10 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | S 13 | SSW 14 | WNW 8 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SW 13 | WNW 10 |
702 | 911 | 518 | 679 | 781 | 663 | 617 | 610 | 519 | 392 | 372 | 305 | 366 | 229 | 265 | 381 | 144 | 61 | 64 | 46 | 1147 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 11 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SSW 11 | S 18 | SW 9 | SSE 14 | SW 15 | — | SSW 14 | SW 14 | W 21 | S 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 10 | SW 13 |
40 | 54 | 124 | 35 | 33 | 33 | 11 | 160 | 3 | 62 | 141 | — | 186 | 103 | 9 | 153 | 73 | 97 | 68 | 37 | 44 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 10 | — | SSW 12 | S 10 | S 10 | SW 11 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | — | SSE 13 | S 15 | SSE 11 | — | — | SW 14 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | S 10 |
4 | — | 56 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 51 | 83 | 69 | — | 33 | 110 | 11 | — | — | 72 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 49 | 17 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | NW 10 |
107 | 268 | 238 | 198 | 471 | 382 | 234 | 770 | 605 | 476 | 759 | 441 | 226 | 264 | 436 | 686 | 994 | 1014 | 765 | 1104 | 2068 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 48 | 147 | 59 | 48 | 145 | 48 | 26 | 144 | 48 | 48 | 144 | 26 | 26 | 144 | 26 | 26 | 144 | 48 | 26 | 145 | 1 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










