Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 18 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 7s period, NW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 20 Aug, 2PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period, WNW swell with 658 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 18 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.6m 12s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 20) at 2PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Tue 18th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 7s |
| Most Powerful | 2PM (Thu 20th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here, checkin' in with the outlook for Drakes Estero. We've got a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, but there are a few windows where it'll be worth paddling out.
Right off the bat, don't get too excited for Monday or Tuesday. The swell is tiny, around 2.6ft to 2.3ft, and the wind is messy. It's gonna be a real struggle for a wave. Things look a bit more promising on Wednesday morning the 19th. The wind will be light out of the WNW, leaving the surface clean. The swell is still small at 2.3ft from the SW with a long period of 14 seconds, so it'll be a bit more lined up. The water temp is sitting at 58.5°, which is pretty much just average for this time of year, nothing weird going on there. The combined energy is moderate at 457. Keep your expectations in check though.
We hit a real rough patch from the 20th through the 22nd. The swell jumps up but the period crashes down to around 6 seconds and the wind is onshore and strong. The combined energy is moderate but the quality is junk. This stretch looks way more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. It's not worth your time.
Now, Sunday the 23rd morning gives us another small glimmer. Clean conditions with a WNW wind and a 3.6ft swell. It's still small, and a period of 9 seconds is okay, but nothin' special.
After another week of so-so, tiny surf with periods of strong onshore winds, the real standout finally shows up. Saturday the 29th of August is the one to circle on the calendar. We've got a clean, 3.3ft swell from the SW with a very long period of 18 seconds. That means proper groundswell energy and long waits between sets. This kind of period can make a beach break like this a bit straight, but the energy will be there. The combined energy is strong at 792, and with a light WNW wind it's gonna be the best session of the whole outlook. Sunday afternoon the 30th is also worth a look with a 7.5ft swell, but that short 7-second period means it's a bit walled up and possibly too much for the beginners. Keep your eyes on that Saturday for the cleanest, most shapely waves of the run.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 12°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Wed morning, fresh winds from the NW by Wed night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 12°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Thu night, light winds from the NW by Sat night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Mon 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 15 | WNW 7 | SSW 14 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 255 | 214 | 217 | 169 | 169 | 214 | 279 | 311 | 142 | 262 | 237 | 225 | 262 | 141 | 81 | 157 | 192 | 181 | 165 | 116 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:11PM1.66m | 5:02AM1.20m | 4:48PM1.64m | 6:32AM1.12m | 5:31PM1.61m | 8:18AM1.12m | 6:24PM1.59m | 9:44AM1.19m | 7:24PM1.59m | 10:38AM1.26m | 8:24PM1.61m | 11:16AM1.30m | 9:18PM1.65m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:17PM0.33m | 10:49AM0.62m | 00:20AM0.31m | 11:41AM0.80m | 1:29AM0.28m | 12:53PM0.93m | 2:38AM0.23m | 2:14PM0.98m | 3:38AM0.17m | 3:22PM0.97m | 4:29AM0.10m | 4:16PM0.92m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  |  | | | | | | | |  | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — |
 | 8:01 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:57 | — | — | 7:55 | — | — | 7:53 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 14 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | WNW 8 | SSW 16 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | SSW 15 | WNW 11 | WNW 12 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | WNW 10 | WNW 7 | SW 13 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 |
| kJ | 255 | 214 | 122 | 169 | 160 | 161 | 279 | 130 | 142 | 136 | 138 | 95 | 68 | 35 | 81 | 43 | 192 | 181 | 165 | 116 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 6 | SW 15 | SW 13 | SSW 16 | SW 14 | W 12 | SW 15 | SSW 14 | SW 19 | W 11 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 17 | SSW 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 15 |
| kJ | 25 | 35 | 217 | 84 | 169 | 214 | 110 | 229 | 127 | 14 | 85 | 51 | 49 | 68 | 67 | 73 | 47 | 130 | 112 | 88 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | WNW 9 | W 13 | W 15 | SW 13 | W 13 | SW 22 | — | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 20 | W 14 | S 10 | SW 17 | WNW 8 | W 12 | SSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 |
| kJ | 7 | 25 | 3 | 18 | 84 | 82 | 18 | — | 56 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 28 | 12 | 28 | 37 | 38 | 113 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | — | WNW 8 | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | — | WNW 8 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 25 | 81 | — | 145 | — | — | 198 | 311 | 120 | 262 | 237 | 225 | 262 | 141 | — | 157 | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 147 | 26 | 26 | 145 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 32 | 48 | 144 | 26 | 0 | 145 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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