Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s going on in the water over the next couple of weeks.

We’ve only got one spot to look at here, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The first real action of note is a late-starting pulse, but the opening days are looking pretty wobbly. There is a true standout later in the forecast that should get your attention, as long as you’re patient.

The first proper session that’s worth mentioning arrives on Sunday morning, the 2nd of August. We’ve got a clean 7 ft swell rolling in from the WNW with a 10-second period, and the combined wave energy is moderate (849). The northerly cross-offshore wind is light, so conditions should be clean. This is a decent, solid beginner-level wave at Drakes Estero (Drakes-Estero) — the water’s sitting around 55°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so bring the thicker wetsuit.

Sunday afternoon gets a little shifty with a stronger breeze and a marginal tide call, so the morning window is your best bet.

From Monday the 3rd through to Friday the 7th of August, the swell drops off pretty quickly. We’re looking at weak, small waves under 3 ft with messy winds and poor-to-marginal surf conditions. Honestly, it’s a flat spell. Not worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate for a float.

Now, here’s the standout. Sunday morning, the 9th of August, the swell jumps back up to 6 ft from the WNW with a 10-second period and a combined energy reading of 760 (moderate). The wind is a light southwesterly, cross-onshore, but it’s very light – just a slight air movement, so the surface should stay reasonably clean. This is the best on offer: a solid, rideable wave for the beginner crowd, with just enough size to have fun.

Things stay strong into Monday the 10th of August as well, with a 6 ft WNW swell and very clean conditions thanks to a light cross-offshore breeze in the morning. That morning session on the 10th is also a top pick: very good surf conditions and moderate combined energy (861). It’s only a bit oversized for beginners (6 ft is getting up there), but for those who are comfortable, it’s quality.

After that, the second week from the 11th onward drops back down into smaller, shorter-period swell with more variable winds. There’s a brief blip on Friday afternoon, the 14th of August with a clean, 2 ft groundswell (15-second period) and very good conditions, but it’s tiny. The spot does see some long-period energy later in the window, but the wave heights are too small to get excited about.

The beach/river setup here is exposed to the west-northwest, which lines up nicely with the best swells. Crowds can show up here sometimes, so if you score the standout days, expect some company.

So, bottom line: your two sessions to lock in are Sunday morning the 9th and Monday morning the 10th of August. After that, it’s back to small and iffy for a while.

Stay frothy,
Rusty

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