Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 am 23 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
14.0° C
0.4° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:

  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 26 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 20s period, SW swell with 843 kJ wave energy.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.1m 20s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 11PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)--
Best Surf--
Most Powerful 5AM (Sun 26th Jul)3.5ft (1.1m) 20s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Drakes Estero.

Look, I’m gonna be straight with you, the next 16 days around here are a real mixed bag. We’ve got a long stretch of marginal conditions where the wind is just a bit too strong to make it truly good, but there are a couple of windows where everything lines up. For the first week and a half, the wind is mostly a cross-off breeze from the northwest, which is okay, but it’s blowing at 16 mph to 25 mph for most of it, mixing up the surface. The water temperature is sitting at about 57°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real glimmer of something decent doesn’t come until the morning of Thursday, the 30th of July. The wind drops to a moderate 12 mph, still cross-off, and the swell is a clean 3 ft from the SSW with a period of 16 seconds. That’s a long period groundswell, which means good shape and energy, but with a combined energy of 1210 (moderate energy), it’s got some push. The only catch is that for a beach/river mouth setup, a long period swell like that can sometimes break a bit too straight. Still, it’s the pick of the early run.

Now, the real standout for me is that Wednesday, the 5th of August. The afternoon session is looking proper. We’ve got a 7 ft swell from the WNW, with a period of 9 seconds, and the wind is a light cross-off at 6 mph. The combined energy is 733 (moderate energy), and the conditions are clean. That’s a solid head-high, clean wave. It’s on the bigger side, so it’s not for beginners, but for anyone with a bit of experience, that’s the one to circle on the calendar. The following morning, Thursday the 6th, is also looking good with a 6 ft swell from the WNW, a 10-second period, and light onshore wind from the SSW at 6 mph. Combined energy is 667 (moderate energy), and the conditions are clean again. That’s a solid, fun wave.

In between those dates, there’s a lot of average to poor conditions. The wind is just too fresh for most of it, and the swell is either small or choppy. For the second week, the pattern is similar, but the standout days are clear. Just remember, when the swell gets over 8 ft, like on the morning of the 2nd of August with 8 ft, it’s expert-only territory, and the wind is fresh, so it’s not the best call.

In short, if you’re keen, aim for the 5th of August afternoon or the 6th of August morning. That’s your best bet.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 12°C on Thu morning). Mainly fresh winds.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NW on Sun morning, strong winds from the NW by Tue afternoon).

Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
SSW
14
0.7
SW
14
0.5
SW
26
0.6
SW
24
0.8
SW
24
0.6
SW
22
0.9
SW
21
0.8
SW
21
1
SW
20
0.9
SW
19
0.9
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
1.1
SW
19
0.9
SW
19
1.1
SW
18
1.1
SW
18
1
SW
17
1
SW
16
1
SW
16
1.9
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
321
200
329
448
661
389
763
543
731
627
614
522
621
791
518
679
781
560
527
527
441
Wind (km/h)
25
WNW
30
WNW
30
NW
30
NW
30
WNW
30
NW
30
NW
35
NW
30
NW
30
NW
35
WNW
35
NW
30
NW
40
NW
35
NW
35
NW
45
NW
30
NW
30
NW
40
NW
35
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
9:55AM1.12m
8:09PM1.68m
11:01AM1.21m
8:56PM1.70m
11:50AM1.27m
9:43PM1.72m
12:28PM1.31m
10:26PM1.75m
1:00PM1.33m
11:07PM1.76m
1:30PM1.34m
11:46PM1.76m
1:56PM1.36m
00:25AM1.74m
Low Tide
2:30PM0.87m
4:15AM0.10m
3:34PM0.94m
5:01AM0.03m
4:29PM0.95m
5:42AM-0.03m
5:16PM0.94m
6:19AM-0.08m
5:57PM0.91m
6:53AM-0.11m
6:34PM0.87m
7:24AM-0.12m
7:11PM0.82m
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:05
6:07
6:07
6:09
6:09
6:11
6:11
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:29
8:28
8:27
8:25
8:24
8:23
8:23
 mm
Temp °C
14
15
15
15
16
15
15
16
15
15
16
15
15
16
15
16
17
15
16
15
14
Feels °C
10
11
10
10
12
9
10
11
9
10
10
9
10
9
7
10
10
7
11
9
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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