Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with 1,146 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a good look at what Drakes Estero is offering up over the next couple of weeks.
It’s a bit of a slow start, but there’s a few windows that have me excited. The first few days are dominated by a long-period, 18-second groundswell from the southwest, but it’s small, only around 3ft, and the wind is a solid cross-offshore breeze, which keeps things clean. The wave energy is moderate to strong, but honestly, that long period swell at a beach/river mouth setup like Drakes Estero can be tricky, breaking a bit too straight. It’s surfable for beginners on the smaller days, but nothing to write home about just yet.
That changes on Thursday, July 9th. The swell shifts to the WNW and jumps up to 6ft with a shorter 9-second period, making for a much more user-friendly wave. The morning on Thursday the 9th looks alright, with moderate cross-off winds. The real standout, though, is the morning of Sunday, July 12th. The swell holds at a clean 5ft from the WNW with a 9-second period, and the wind drops right out to a light breeze from the WNW. That’s going to be glassy, clean, and absolutely perfect for the beginner-friendly conditions out there. This is the best session on offer in the first week.
Looking further out, the window from the 16th to the 17th of July has the most size. On the 16th, the afternoon brings a solid 8ft WNW swell, 9-second period, with light cross-off winds and strong wave energy. That’s getting a bit chunky—solid 8ft is expert territory, but the report says it’s excellent for experienced surfers. The morning of Friday the 17th also looks good with 6ft and light wind. The very last day of the forecast, Wednesday, July 22nd, also has a fantastic-looking afternoon: 7ft WNW swell, a 10-second period, light cross-off winds, and strong energy. Another one for the experienced crew.
For the beginners out there, stick to the morning of July 12th. For the experts, the afternoons of the 16th and 22nd of July are your targets. Keep in mind that crowds in the water here are a possibility, so pick your session wisely.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Tue night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Fri night, calm by Sun morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tue 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 465 | 455 | 600 | 521 | 771 | 475 | 885 | 950 | 497 | 699 | 559 | 604 | 545 | 587 | 364 | 422 | 459 | 339 | 364 | 390 | 237 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | on | cross-off | cross | cross |
High Tide | 6:24PM1.64m | 7:15AM1.04m | 7:06PM1.73m | 8:59AM1.06m | 7:54PM1.83m | 10:24AM1.15m | 8:45PM1.92m | 11:29AM1.25m | 9:40PM1.99m | 12:22PM1.33m | 10:35PM2.05m | 1:09PM1.40m | 11:29PM2.06m | 1:53PM1.45m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:44AM0.37m | 12:48PM0.55m | 2:48AM0.17m | 1:48PM0.71m | 3:48AM-0.02m | 2:53PM0.83m | 4:42AM-0.20m | 3:58PM0.88m | 5:35AM-0.33m | 5:00PM0.88m | 6:25AM-0.42m | 5:58PM0.85m | 7:14AM-0.45m | ||||||||
 |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | |  | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 6:00 |
 | 8:37 | — | — | 8:37 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:35 | — | 8:34 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 14 |
Feels °C | 7 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 14 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WNW 9 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WNW 8 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WNW 9 | SW 14 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | 465 | 455 | 600 | 521 | 381 | 437 | 376 | 291 | 497 | 236 | 217 | 331 | 220 | 188 | 364 | 211 | 459 | 339 | 156 | 116 | 237 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SSW 19 | SW 14 | SW 16 | — | — | SW 16 | — | S 21 | SW 15 | W 18 | W 16 | SW 14 | W 18 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | W 14 | SW 19 | SSW 13 |
| kJ | 103 | 104 | 510 | 124 | 46 | 437 | — | — | 291 | — | 9 | 217 | 6 | 5 | 206 | 6 | 178 | 161 | 15 | 96 | 106 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | SSW 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 18 | — | W 18 | W 15 | W 16 | W 16 | WSW 20 | W 15 | W 14 |
| kJ | 5 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | 24 | 4 | 19 | 21 | 37 | 39 | 36 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | — | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | — | WNW 9 | — | — | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | — |
| kJ | 223 | 306 | 292 | 478 | 771 | 475 | 885 | 950 | — | 699 | 559 | 604 | 545 | 587 | — | 422 | — | — | 364 | 390 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 147 | 143 | 26 | 145 | 48 | 26 | 145 | 32 | 32 | 145 | 26 | 32 | 428 | 17 | 0 | 229 | 0 | 5 | 229 | 23 | 48 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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