Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking.

Honestly, the next 16 days are a tough watch for the dedicated surfer. We’re looking at a long stretch of clean but weak, wind-battered, and mostly unsurfable conditions. The only real spot on the radar is Drakes Estero, and even then, it’s a battle to find a window.

The patch starts on Monday the 27th of July. Drakes Estero is showing a beautiful, long-period groundswell from the southwest, around 4 ft with a period of 18 seconds. That’s proper energy (combined energy of 746), but it’s being hammered by a strong cross-offshore breeze of 19 mph. The water is a very noticeable 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The problem is that the forecast keeps calling it “marginal,” and the numbers back it up—this isn’t the day to paddle out.

Tuesday and Wednesday are more of the same: clean conditions, but the cross-offshore wind is just too strong, blowing at 19 to 25 mph. The swell stays around 4 ft, but the energy is moderate (914 to 1287). The wind is ripping the surface to shreds, making it look better for kite surfing than for a paddle board.

Thursday the 30th sees the swell jump up to 8 ft from the west-northwest, but the period drops to a short, weak 8 seconds. The wind is still a stiff 25 mph cross-off. That’s a messy, choppy, and dangerous combo for a beginner-friendly spot. It’s too big for beginners and too wind-blown for anyone else.

Friday the 31st offers a brief glimmer. The morning shows a 3 ft swell from the south-southwest with a 14-second period, and a moderate breeze of 12 mph. The energy is moderate (789). It’s clean, but it’s still marginal. The afternoon tries to pick up to 5 ft but with a short 7-second period. It’s a no-go.

Saturday the 1st of August is a write-off. The swell is 8 ft from the west-northwest, but the wind hits 31 mph in the afternoon—a near gale. The surf is rated as poor. Sunday the 2nd is similar: 8 ft, 9-second swell, with fresh wind. Just ugly.

The first week of August is a dead zone. The swell drops to tiny 1.0 ft to 4 ft, the wind turns onshore from the south, and the energy falls to weak levels. From Monday the 3rd through to Sunday the 9th, it’s a mix of poor surf conditions and light onshore winds. The only real standout is Friday the 7th of August, when the morning goes glassy with a 2 ft, 19-second south-southwest groundswell. The energy is very weak (279), but the glassy conditions are a rare treat. It’s a tiny, clean, long-period wave that will be better suited for a point or reef than a beach break, but it’s the best we’ve got.

The final few days, from the 9th to the 11th, are back to marginal, with onshore winds and small, mixed-up swell. The 11th of August morning offers a 2 ft, 19-second swell from the southwest, but the onshore wind and moderate energy (573) keep it from being anything special.

If you’ve got a longboard and a desperate need to get wet, the glassy dawn patrol on Friday the 7th of August is the only true standout. The rest of the window is a solid wait-and-see, with a heavy emphasis on the “wait.” Forecasts can change, but right now, the Pacific is not playing ball.

Rusty

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