Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Drakes Estero.

The forecast starts off with a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got some usable swell right from Sunday morning, July 12th, with waves around 4ft out of the WNW. The wind is glassy out of the SSW at just 3 mph, so the surface will be buttery smooth. The combined energy is moderate (473). It’s not the biggest swell in the world, but for a beginner-friendly spot like this, it’s a decent way to start the period. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

Now, Monday morning, July 13th, is where things get a bit more interesting. The swell jacks up to 6ft from the NW, and the combined energy jumps to 918 (moderate). That’s a solid step up in push. The wind is a light cross-off at 6 mph, so the waves will hold their shape. This is probably the best session of the first week if you want a bit more power without it getting too hairy. It’s still manageable for most, but the bigger sets will be a handful for absolute beginners.

Tuesday through Thursday see the swell hanging around in the 4ft to 8ft range, but the wind picks up. We’re looking at 15 to 28 mph NW winds, which is strong cross-off stuff. It’ll keep the waves looking clean from the wind’s direct hit, but it’s going to be tough paddling and the wave quality will suffer. The combined energy stays moderate (between 440 and 922). There’s a period on Thursday afternoon, July 16th, where the swell hits 8ft with 28 mph winds – that’s expert territory with a lot of wind power, and honestly, it looks more like a windy mess than a fun surf. The later part of the week stays similar, with moderate energy and fresh winds.

Then we hit a bit of a lull. From Saturday, July 18th, through to Wednesday, July 22nd, the swell drops right off. We’re looking at 2ft to 3ft waves, mostly from the SW. The energy is still moderate (354 to 684), but the heights are small. There’s one interesting blip on Sunday afternoon, July 19th, with a 2ft swell from the SW but a very long 18-second period. That’s a groundswell with some real pulse, but it’s too small to do much at this beach/river mouth setup. The wind is light and cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but you’ll be fighting for scraps.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, comes in the second week. On Thursday, July 23rd, the morning shows us 6ft from the WNW with a 10-second period and light cross-off wind. The energy is a solid 859 (moderate). That’s a proper, clean, punchy wave. But the best of the whole run? Look at Saturday, July 25th, morning. The swell is only 3ft, but it’s from the SW with a 21-second period. The combined energy jumps to 1031 (moderate). That’s a very long period groundswell, and here at a beach/river break, it might be a bit too straight for the banks, but if it lines up right, you’ll have long, walled-up waves. The wind is light cross-off at 6 mph. It’s a promising but long-range standout, so fingers crossed.

Then on Sunday, July 26th, and Monday, July 27th, the swell sticks around the 3ft to 4ft mark from the SW with long periods (18-20 seconds), and the energy is strong (1157 to 1385). The wind is glassy or light cross-off on Monday morning, July 27th. That’s another excellent window for experienced surfers who can work the longer-period lines.

Overall, there’s a lot of average days with wind, but the real gems are the Monday morning of the 13th, and the Saturday and Monday of the 25th and 27th. Keep your eyes on those.

Rusty.

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