
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 4 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 11 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,107 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 4 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 11) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 6s period and expected on Friday (Aug 07) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 5AM (Tue 11th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right, grab a coffee, and I’ll talk you through the next couple of weeks at Drakes Estero. It’s a beach-and-river setup, beginner-friendly, but it’s got a bit of a slow start.
First off, the opening days are a bit of a washout. Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th are pretty poor – small, weak swell with messy onshore winds. The combined wave energy is pitiful, in the 100-300 range, so hardly worth paddling out for. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
Things start to flicker to life on Thursday the 6th. The morning is still rubbish, but the afternoon gets a little cleaner with a light cross-offshore breeze. The swell is still tiny, 2ft from the SW, but the energy nudges up a bit. It’s surfable, but only just.
Friday the 7th is a write-off again, with a long period groundswell (18-19 seconds) that’s too small and straight to do much here. But then we get to Saturday the 8th. That’s the first real standout. The morning brings a punchy 5ft swell from the NW, with a short period of 7 seconds, but the combined energy jumps right up to 608 – that’s proper moderate energy. The wind is a light cross-offshore, so the waves will be clean. This is the best session of the first week, full stop. It’s a bit punchy for total beginners, but anyone with a bit of experience will have a blast.
Sunday the 9th sees the swell building, with the afternoon hitting 7ft from the WNW. That’s getting into expert-only territory, especially with a short period making it dumpy. The wind is a moderate cross-offshore, but the wave energy is cranked up to 890. It’s powerful, but you’ll need to know what you’re doing.
The following week, from Monday the 11th through to Wednesday the 13th, has a solid run of chest-to-head-high swell (5ft to 7ft) from the WNW. The best of these is Tuesday the 11th afternoon, with a clean 7ft and energy of 900 – that’s a proper session for the confident crew. The wind is cross-offshore, keeping the faces tidy.
But the real hidden gem of the whole outlook is Friday the 14th morning. The swell drops to 3ft from the WNW, with a nice long period of 11 seconds. The wind is glassy – dead calm. That’s the kind of morning where you’ll get smooth, peeling lines with no wind chop. It’s a beginner’s dream. The energy is moderate at 401, but the quality will be top-notch.
After that, the swell fades back down to knee-to-waist high for the rest of the period, with the odd clean session on Sunday the 16th afternoon. The combined energy drops back into the 300-500 range, so it’s not a total loss, but it’s not going to get the heart racing.
Overall, you’ve got a gap of poor surf until Saturday the 8th, then a solid run of power through to mid-week, with the glassy Friday 14th session being the absolute cream of the crop. It’s a mixed bag, but Saturday the 8th and Friday the 14th are the ones to circle.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed afternoon, min 12°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Fri morning, fresh winds from the NW by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 16 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
299 | 207 | 157 | 100 | 69 | 68 | 111 | 84 | 84 | 82 | 85 | 181 | 133 | 242 | 202 | 418 | 230 | 699 | 864 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | cross | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:19AM1.23m | 4:48PM1.68m | 5:43AM1.11m | 5:31PM1.74m | 7:31AM1.07m | 6:23PM1.79m | 9:12AM1.13m | 7:24PM1.84m | 10:25AM1.23m | 8:28PM1.90m | 11:17AM1.32m | 9:31PM1.96m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:54PM0.46m | 10:32AM0.43m | 11:58PM0.36m | 11:16AM0.61m | 1:10AM0.24m | 12:12PM0.78m | 2:23AM0.11m | 1:27PM0.90m | 3:30AM-0.03m | 2:48PM0.94m | 4:30AM-0.16m | 3:59PM0.91m | |||||||
— | 6:16 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | |
8:19 | — | 8:17 | — | — | 8:16 | — | — | 8:15 | — | — | 8:14 | — | — | 8:13 | — | — | 8:12 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
Feels °C | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 13 | SW 19 | SW 13 | WNW 7 | SSW 17 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | SSW 15 | SW 15 |
299 | 207 | 157 | 100 | 66 | 26 | 67 | 47 | 40 | 27 | 82 | 181 | 82 | 131 | 202 | 116 | 151 | 148 | 104 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | NW 9 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WNW 5 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SSW 18 | SW 12 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 |
37 | 80 | 77 | 73 | 69 | 41 | 111 | 84 | 84 | 82 | 13 | 78 | 133 | 204 | 35 | 169 | 169 | 25 | 24 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | NW 10 | SW 14 | S 9 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 18 | W 15 | W 12 | SW 11 | WNW 11 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 21 | SW 21 |
64 | 36 | 36 | 34 | 25 | 68 | 7 | 60 | 60 | 81 | 85 | 17 | 28 | 31 | 13 | 37 | 22 | 18 | 72 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 7 | WNW 6 | NW 7 | WNW 7 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 46 | 106 | 242 | 124 | 418 | 230 | 699 | 864 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 75 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 195 | 23 | 0 | 490 | 26 | 32 | 145 | 23 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











