Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 12 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 16 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 502 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 12 Aug, 5PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 5PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5PM (Wed 12th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch ahead is a mixed bag. We’ve got some clean windows but the swell is mostly small and a lot of it is short-period windswell. Nothing here is going to have you calling in sick, but there are a few sessions worth paddling out for if you pick your moments.
We’re looking at a run that starts slowly. The first worthwhile surf doesn’t really get going until Wednesday afternoon, August 12th, at Drakes Estero (beach/riverh). The swell’s only around 4ft from the WNW with an 8-second period, and the combined energy is moderate at 427. But the wind is cross-off and light, so it’s clean. For a beginner-friendly spot, that's about as good as it gets right now—just don't expect any power.
Thursday the 13th is a write-off for surf—onshore wind and poor conditions. Friday the 14th is more interesting. The swell drops to 2ft but look at that period jump—it’s a proper groundswell from the SSW, 18 seconds on the afternoon. That’s a long-period, clean cross-off wind combo. Waves will be small, but the shape will be there. The combined energy is 399, so it’s weak, but for a longboard or a groveler, that Friday afternoon has some charm.
Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th keep the same small, long-period SW swell. It’s pretty inconsistent and small, with waves in the 2ft to 3ft range. Sunday morning has a touch more energy (586) but it's cross-shore. The afternoons are clean. You’ll be fighting for waves more than riding them, but it’s not a total loss.
The early part of next week, Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th, is the most consistent run of clean surf. Swell stays around 3ft from the SW, with a 14-15 second period. The wind is light and cross-off each morning. It’s not big, but it’s clean and there are waves. If you’ve got a flexible schedule, those mornings are your best bet for a relaxed session without the crowds.
Late next week starts to get a bit windier. Wednesday the 19th, the swell is still 3ft from the SSW, but the wind picks up. By the afternoon, that NW wind is cranking at 22 mph, and while it’s cross-off, it’s going to be lumpy and hard work for what’s on offer. Thursday the 20th is similar. By Friday the 21st, the swell bumps back up to 4ft from the WNW, but that period drops to 11 seconds and the wind is howling again. Not worth it.
The weekend of the 23rd and 24th is a bit of a mixed bag. Saturday the 23rd morning looks okay—3ft from the WNW with a light cross-off wind. But that afternoon drops to nothing. Sunday the 24th morning has a nice long 18-second SW groundswell at 2ft, clean. But the afternoon sees a sudden jump to 6ft from the WNW with a 7-second period. That’s a classic windswell spike, and with a moderate cross-off breeze, it’s going to be messy and junky. Probably more interesting for a kite than a paddleboard.
Looking further out, the week of the 25th starts with another pulse—4ft to 5ft from the WNW, but again with that short, 7-8 second period. It's all chop. The wind is cross-off, but it won’t save it. From the 26th onwards, it fades back to small, clean, but weak conditions. The 26th afternoon and maybe the 27th morning are the last clean calls, but the swell is tiny, 2ft to 2ft.
So here's my call: if you’re chasing the best waves on offer, it’s the morning sessions on the 17th and 18th of August. Clean, consistent, and with a bit of groundswell direction. For a runner-up, Friday the 14th afternoon has the most potential for quality, just not size. Everything else is a grovel or a fight with the wind. Stay patient.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 11°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 12°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
307 | 212 | 222 | 237 | 192 | 192 | 191 | 174 | 221 | 252 | 414 | 268 | 502 | 489 | 349 | 309 | 305 | 309 | 248 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | on | cross | cross | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:25PM1.98m | 1:19PM1.52m | 00:18AM1.93m | 1:54PM1.57m | 1:09AM1.82m | 2:29PM1.62m | 2:01AM1.68m | 3:03PM1.65m | 2:54AM1.51m | 3:36PM1.67m | 3:52AM1.34m | 4:11PM1.66m | |||||||
Low Tide | 6:54AM-0.29m | 6:49PM0.62m | 7:35AM-0.23m | 7:41PM0.52m | 8:14AM-0.12m | 8:33PM0.45m | 8:52AM0.03m | 9:25PM0.39m | 9:29AM0.22m | 10:19PM0.35m | 10:07AM0.42m | 11:17PM0.33m | |||||||
— | 6:22 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | |
8:09 | — | 8:08 | — | — | 8:07 | — | — | 8:06 | — | — | 8:05 | — | — | 8:04 | — | — | 8:01 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 12 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
307 | 212 | 222 | 237 | 192 | 192 | 142 | 104 | 76 | 54 | 414 | 268 | 502 | 489 | 349 | 309 | 305 | 309 | 248 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 7 | SW 13 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 |
249 | 150 | 130 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 191 | 174 | 221 | 252 | 38 | 85 | 20 | 77 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 27 | 26 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 12 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | S 11 | S 11 | W 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SW 10 | SSW 18 |
28 | 65 | 67 | 27 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 97 | 102 | 167 | 20 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 20 | 20 | 15 | 32 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 6 | WNW 5 | — | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 3 | WNW 3 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 32 | 30 | — | 72 | 69 | 47 | 3 | 4 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 145 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 26 | 37 | 147 | 23 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











