Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Issued: 4 am 04 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.0° C

Normal for this time of year

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 4 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with 1,176 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 4 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 19s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 04) at 5PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 19s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 3.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 06) at 11PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 5PM (Sat 4th Jul)1.5ft (0.5m) 19s
Best Surf 8PM (Wed 8th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 8PM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Drakes Estero.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next few days are a bit of a slow cooker. We’ve got a *little* bit of swell around, but it’s mostly small and the conditions are fighting us. The water temp is sitting at 55°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Saturday morning is a write-off – onshore wind, poor surf. That afternoon though, the first decent window appears. We see a bump of 2 ft from the SW with a juicy long period of 19 seconds, and the wind swings cross-offshore from the WNW. That’s going to be clean, but the size is tiny. The combined energy is solid though, at (457), so there’s push in the water, just not much height. This is more of a longboard or a foiling prospect.

Sunday and Monday stay small and messy with cross or cross-on winds. Not really worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate for a splash.

Now, Tuesday the 8th through Thursday the 10th is where this forecast gets interesting, but it comes with a big caveat. We get a proper pulse of NW groundswell. Tuesday morning the 8th shows 7 ft from the NW, but with a short period of 8 seconds – that’s windswell, not the cleanest. The wind is cross-off though, and the energy is pumping at (1571). By Wednesday morning the 9th, we’re looking at 7 ft again, still short period, but by Thursday afternoon the 9th, the model is predicting 10 ft from the WNW. The combined energy hits (1524). That is serious, heavy water.

Here’s the standout: Thursday afternoon, July 9th. The swell is 10 ft from the WNW. That’s expert-only territory. It’s too big for beginners and even intermediate surfers will be in over their head. The wind is a strong cross-off from the NW, which will keep the faces clean, but at that size, Drakes Estero is going to be a washing machine. This is a spot for tow-ins and chargers only. If you’re not an expert, stay on the beach and watch. The energy is massive.

Friday the 10th drops back to a more manageable 6 ft from the WNW, but still with that short period. The wind stays cross-off, so the surf will be clean, but the quality is marginal due to the shorter period. It’ll be fat and walled up in sections.

We then hit a lull. Saturday the 11th through to Tuesday the 15th is mostly small, onshore, or just poor conditions with nothing exciting. A few 2 ft days with cross-off wind, but not enough push to get excited about.

Finally, Wednesday afternoon, July 15th brings a new pulse. We get 5 ft from the WNW with an 8-second period, but the real treat is the wind – cross-off from the WNW and glassy. The combined energy is solid at (506). This is a far more user-friendly size. It’s still got some short-period chunkiness, but for a fun, punchy afternoon session on a beach break or a sandbar, this looks like the best bet of the second week. It’s clean and it’s got enough grunt for a high-performance shortboard.

After that, Thursday the 16th through to the 19th is back to knee-to-waist high dribble with cross-off winds but very little power (energy in the 400-700 range). The waves will be there, but you’ll be working for every turn.

Best on offer: Thursday afternoon, July 9th (10 ft WNW, expert only) and Wednesday afternoon, July 15th (5 ft WNW, clean, good all-rounder). The big swell is the eye-catcher, but the smaller, cleaner day is the one to book off work for if you want a fun session without the risk.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 11°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Sat night, fresh winds from the NW by Mon night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Tue morning, strong winds from the NW by Wed night).

Saturday
4
Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
2
1
0
0
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
3
1
1
1
!
2
3
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
WNW
8
0.5
SW
19
0.6
SSW
14
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.5
SW
18
0.8
SW
16
0.5
SW
21
0.8
SW
20
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
18
2.1
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
8
2.2
WNW
8
3
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
133
184
140
252
249
152
318
224
455
384
465
455
619
532
844
667
1148
721
443
381
372
Wind (km/h)
15
S
10
WNW
10
W
15
SW
15
WSW
10
WNW
10
WSW
20
WNW
30
NW
20
WNW
35
WNW
35
NW
20
NW
35
NW
35
NW
40
NW
40
NW
30
NW
20
NW
25
WNW
20
NW
Wind State
on
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
4:40PM1.41m
3:23AM1.39m
5:12PM1.48m
4:21AM1.25m
5:46PM1.55m
5:37AM1.12m
6:24PM1.64m
7:15AM1.04m
7:06PM1.73m
8:59AM1.06m
7:54PM1.83m
10:24AM1.15m
8:45PM1.92m
Low Tide
10:00AM-0.06m
10:27PM0.77m
10:35AM0.05m
11:29PM0.67m
11:14AM0.20m
00:36AM0.54m
11:57AM0.37m
1:44AM0.37m
12:48PM0.55m
2:48AM0.17m
1:48PM0.71m
3:48AM-0.02m
2:53PM0.83m
4:42AM-0.20m
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:54
5:54
5:54
5:54
5:56
5:56
5:56
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:37
8:36
8:36
 mm
Temp °C
14
14
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
12
12
12
13
14
13
14
13
12
14
14
13
Feels °C
12
13
10
11
10
10
11
10
8
8
7
5
9
7
5
7
7
4
10
9
8
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
0.9
WNW
8
0.8
WNW
12
0.8
SW
20
0.7
SW
19
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1.7
WNW
8
1
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.7
SW
15
0.7
SW
15
Energy kJ
133
133
136
136
140
125
103
161
455
384
465
455
352
521
381
381
376
291
291
232
217
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
SW
14
0.6
SSW
14
0.6
SSW
14
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.5
SW
18
0.8
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.7
WNW
11
0.7
WNW
11
0.5
SW
15
0.5
SW
15
1
SW
18
0.4
SSW
19
0.4
SW
14
0.8
SW
16
0.1
W
19
Energy kJ
102
140
140
252
249
152
318
206
109
101
104
104
600
124
46
291
7
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.3
W
14
0.5
SW
19
0.4
WNW
13
0.4
WNW
12
0.5
W
13
0.5
SW
13
0.7
WNW
12
0.5
SW
21
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.2
S
8
0.2
SSW
11
0.1
S
21
Energy kJ
33
184
55
50
86
85
127
224
206
198
5
12
9
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
WNW
8
1.4
WNW
6
1.1
WNW
8
2
WNW
7
2
WNW
7
2.2
NW
8
2.1
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
8
2.2
WNW
8
3
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
Energy kJ
103
145
138
332
384
619
532
844
667
1148
721
443
381
372
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
4
3
2
3
4
2
3
3
3
4
3
4
3
Distance (km)
5
0
32
5
145
0
48
145
32
26
145
32
32
144
48
48
144
32
26
240
23
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
1
2
2
2
3
2
3
3
3
4
3
Best forecast wave conditions in United States
Rating
(10 max)
2
3
3
3
2
3
2
2
4
4
2
4
4
3
4
3
3
4
4
4
4
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
4
5
9
7
5
5
8
7
5
5
9
7
9
5
7
5
5
4
8
4
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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