Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s check in on Drakes Estero. Right off the bat, this is a tricky forecast. We’ve got a slow start with small, clean waves, then a long stretch of very long period groundswells that will be more about the spectacle than the surf, but there are a couple of windows that’ll get you out.

From Friday the 17th, the first few days are building but not great. Friday morning has a 5ft west-northwest swell at a short 8 seconds with a moderate breeze. The combined energy is moderate at 713. The water temp is about 57°, which is normal for this time of year. Not special. Saturday morning the 18th, the swell drops to 2ft, but a 16-second period from the west shows up. That’s proper groundswell, but 2ft with that period might break too straight on this beach/river setup. It’s small, clean, and pretty. Saturday afternoon is similar: 2ft and an 18-second period from the southwest, super clean.

Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th are flat out small: 2ft waves with 15-17 second periods. Monday morning is glassy, but 2ft with that period is just a paddle.

Now, Tuesday the 21st: the swell jumps to 4ft–5ft. Period drops to 13-14 seconds, so it’s still long but much more rideable. Combined energy is moderate at 675 and 768. Wind is light and clean. This is your best bet of the first week. It’s going to be clean, a proper size, and with long period lines. You’ll get good ones. It’s fairly consistent, so it’s a go.

Wednesday the 22nd is a washout. Onshore wind and a short-period 5ft swell. Ugly. Thursday the 23rd is a bit better but still small.

Then we get into the long-range stuff. From Friday the 24th through the end of the month, the swell stays small – 2ft to 3ft – but the period goes bonkers: 18 to 24 seconds. Combined energy jumps into the 1000s – strong to very strong. That’s a reef or point break swell, not a Drakes Estero wave. The standout for this stretch is Saturday the 25th: 3ft, 21-second southwest swell under clear skies, with a combined energy of 1139. The sets will be massive and fast, but few and far between. For experts only.

Finally, Thursday the 30th afternoon has a 10ft west-northwest swell with a short 9-second period and onshore wind. That’s a kite session.

The best on offer: Tuesday the 21st is your standout. Clean, 4ft–5ft southwest groundswell with long period and light winds. For experts, Saturday the 25th offers a 3ft, 21-second southwest swell – a real challenge.

The second week is a wait-and-see. Long period swells will keep hitting, but wave quality is a gamble.

Rusty.

Read more