Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, plug in yer ears, this is Rusty, and we’re lookin’ at a mixed bag for Drakes Estero over the next couple weeks. The water temp is sittin' about average for this time of year at 58°, so nothin' wild on that front.

First up, we’ve got a bit of a rough start. Wednesday the 29th of July kicks off with some crankin’ 8ft cross-off swell from the WNW, period a short 8 seconds, and a solid 1742 (moderate energy) backing it. But with the wind howlin' at 28 mph from the NW, it’s gonna be choppy and pretty much a write-off for a decent paddle. The whole first week is a bit of a slog, honestly. Thursday the 30th flakes out with a small 3ft SSW groundswell (16-second period) in the morning that gets swallowed by a windy 8ft afternoon. Friday through Sunday is a constant battle of cross-off winds and waves that peak over 8ft, which puts it into just-for-experts territory, but the wind just wrecks it. The energy values are high (over 1000 at times), but the quality is poor. If you’re lookin’ at that 10ft on Saturday the 1st of August afternoon with 31 mph winds, that’s pure kite-surfing stuff, not for a paddle board.

There’s a little light at the end of the tunnel, though. The standout window is Monday the 3rd of August morning. The wind goes glassy, dead calm from the SW at 3 mph, and the swell is a solid 6ft from the WNW with a nice long 10-second period. The energy is moderate at 796, but the “very good” surf conditions tag says it all. That morning will be clean, lined-up, and proper fun for a confident surfer. The afternoon holds clean too with a light 9 mph cross-off, but the morning glass is the real magic moment.

Then we drop into a pretty ordinary run. From Tuesday the 4th through to Wednesday the 6th, the wind shifts onshore and the waves drop off to under 4ft. Not worth paddling out for.

The second week finally serves up another highlight. On Saturday the 8th of August morning, we get a really nice 6ft WNW groundswell with a period stretched out to 11 seconds, clean cross-off winds, and the highest score in the whole outlook. The combined energy is 1018 (moderate), but it’s flagged as “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That morning is the best of the second week by a long way, with solid, clean waves. The following days stay in the 5ft to 6ft range but the winds get a bit messy, so Saturday is the day to target.

After that, it fades away. By the 11th and 12th of August, some long-period SW groundswell rolls in (17 to 19 seconds), but it’s tiny, less than 3ft, and the period is so long it’ll be tricky on this beach/river setup. A bit of clean swell on the 12th afternoon at 3ft, but it’s just a longboard wave at best. If you’re after any sort of proper wave, the 3rd and the 8th of August are your days. Everything else is a fight with the wind or the tide.

Rusty.

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