Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's get into it.

Things are looking pretty average for the Drakes Estero area. We've got a run of mostly clean conditions, but the swell quality is holding back any real excitement for most of the forecast. The standout window is a definite Monday morning session, so let's lock that in.

We start off on Thursday the 30th with a modest 3-foot SSW swell pushing through, but it's a long-period 16 second groundswell which will wrap in nicely. The morning offers a bit of shape with that cross-off breeze, but it's not firing. The afternoon sees a jump in height to 8 feet, but the period crashes to 8 seconds and the wind is cranking at 22 mph, making it pretty average. The combined energy is moderate (746), but it's not doing much.

Friday the 31st is a similar story. A 3-foot SSW swell again in the morning with a 14-second period, but the wind is still a brisk cross-off. The afternoon gets messy with a 7-foot swell, but a short 7-second period and strong wind make it a write-off. The combined energy is moderate (1108), but the quality isn't there.

The weekend is a tough one. Saturday the 1st has a 6-foot WNW swell, but the wind is strong and the period is short. By the afternoon, the swell hits 10 feet, and with a 28 mph cross-off, this is big, powerful, and angry. For the average surfer, this is a stay-on-the-beach day. The wave energy is strong (1258), but pure chaos. Sunday the 2nd is still big, with an 8-foot NW swell in the morning, but the wind is lighter. The combined energy is very strong (1958), but the wind is still up in the afternoon, making it tough.

Now for the highlight of the whole outlook. Monday the 3rd of August. The morning is the real deal. A 7-foot swell from the WNW with a 10-second period, and the wind is dead light, just 3 mph from the WNW, making it clean. The water is about average for the time of year. This is the best window we have. The conditions are genuinely good. The afternoon is still surfable, but the wind picks up to 15 mph, so get in before lunch.

After that, we slide into a flat spell. Tuesday the 4th through to Wednesday the 6th is a write-off with onshore winds and poor conditions. The swell drops right off, dropping to 3 feet on the 6th. The combined energy drops to a weak 278. There's a gap of about 3 days where the surf is not worth the paddle.

We get a small pulse back on the 7th, with a 3-foot WNW swell, but it's not inspiring. The 8th through the 12th sees a slow, steady trickle of 3-foot to 5-foot WNW swell, but the wind is always cross-off. It's clean, but it's small and weak. It's more of a longboard wave than a proper session. The combined energy stays in the 500-650 range, which is moderate but not exciting.

The final days from the 13th and 14th are very weak, with 3-foot SW swells, and the wind is light but not ideal. This is a long way out, and the energy is almost gone, with combined energy dropping to 328 by the 14th.

So, to sum it up: Monday morning, the 3rd of August, is the standout. Get there early for the cleanest, most powerful waves of the stretch. The rest of the 16 days is a mix of blown-out or small, clean but weak surf. It's not a blank run, but it's a long wait between good sessions.

Rusty.

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