Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this sorted out. First off, the truth is, for most of the next few days, Drakes Estero isn’t exactly pumping. It’s looking fairly small and weak early on, with the biggest problem being onshore wind on Wednesday the 22nd. That morning is a write-off with onshore wind and poor conditions. The swell is small, around 2–3 ft, and the energy is moderate, but it’s not going to be clean. Tuesday the 21st afternoon sees a shift to a light cross-offshore breeze from the WNW, with 3 ft SW swell, period around 14 seconds. That’s going to be the best of the early days—actually quite clean, but only small, knee-to-waist-high waves. The water temp is sitting about a normal 56°F for this time of year, so nothing wild there.

From Thursday the 23rd right through to the end of July, the wind becomes a constant cross-offshore from the NW, and the swell ticks up. But then, the period gets really long on the 24th and 25th—up to 24 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, and while it means nice shape, at a beach/river mouth like Drakes Estero, it might break a little straight. Still, the combined energy climbs into the strong range. The standout session would be Thursday morning the 30th of July. You’ve got 8 ft of NW swell (9 sec period), combined energy of 1666, and light cross-offshore winds from the NW at just 9 mph. Clean, solid overhead-plus waves, but that size and the long period combo could make it punchy—more for the experienced crew. Crowds are only sometimes a problem here, which is a nice bonus.

Heads up for Tuesday the 28th and Monday the 3rd of August. Both afternoons forecast 10 ft WNW swell with short 8–9 second period and a cross-off breeze. But the guidance says the swell is too big for this break. It will be messy and dangerous, really only for hardcore experts. Actually, with that much wind and size, it might even be more of a kiteboarding setup than a day for a paddle surfer.

After that first week of August, the last few days (August 4th onward) drop back to 5–6 ft SW/WNW swell. Energy drops, but the wind stays light and cross or cross-off. It’s not a standout; it’s just okay. Decent enough for a longboard if you’re keen, but nothing to get excited about.

So to wrap it up, the only real standout window in the entire 16 days is Thursday the 30th of July morning—clean, solid, and uncrowded. Get in before it gets messy.

Rusty

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