Drakes Estero Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.03° N 122.94° W

Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 pm 06 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Drakes Estero sea temperature is
13.4° C
0.8° 

Drakes Estero surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Drakes Estero surf forecast from 7 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,132 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 7 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 18s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:

The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 5s. Another secondary swell of 0.5m and 13s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8AM (Fri 7th Aug)1.5ft (0.4m) 18s
Best Surf 8AM (Mon 10th Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 9s
Most Powerful 5AM (Mon 10th Aug)8ft (2.5m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer at Drakes Estero for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, don’t get your hopes up for the first few days. We’re looking at a real slow start. Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th are pretty much a write-off with tiny, weak swell. The best you’ll find is a little 2 ft to 2 ft SSW groundswell with a very long 18 to 17 second period, but the energy is low (313 to 392). It’s not worth the paddle.

Sunday the 9th throws a bit of a curveball. The swell jumps up to 8 ft from the NW, but it’s a short-period windswell (9 seconds) with a lot of energy (1550). The winds are cross-off, which is a positive, but the size is more than 5 ft, so it’s getting a bit much for beginners. By the afternoon it’s still 7 ft but dropping. It’s a fun, punchy option for the experienced crew, but it’s not the cleanest shape.

The real standout in this outlook is the morning of Saturday the 15th. The swell is a clean 3 ft from the SW with a solid 17-second period – that’s proper groundswell. The wind is a light cross-off from the WNW, and the combined energy is a solid 592. The water temp is about average for this time of year. This is a session that’s going to be well-shaped, clean, and with enough energy to make it fun. It’s not massive, but it’s quality. Expect some company though, as crowds are possible here.

Another good call is the morning of Sunday the 16th. It’s very similar: 3 ft SW swell, 16-second period, cross-off winds, and good energy (584). It’s a bit of a repeat of the day before, but just as worthwhile.

There’s a gap after that, with the week of the 18th and 19th dropping back to tiny, weak swell. Then on the 20th, we get a bigger NW windswell (5 ft to 6 ft) but with a short period of just 6-7 seconds and fresh winds. It’s got energy (515 to 790), but it’s going to be a choppy, short-period mess – more one for the kites than the paddles.

The tail end of the outlook on the 21st and 22nd looks promising again. The morning of Friday the 21st has a clean 2 ft SSW swell with a 17-second period, light cross-off winds, and good energy (496). The morning of Saturday the 22nd is similar with a 3 ft SSW swell and 15-second period. These are both clean, lined-up options for a longboard or a funboard.

To wrap it up, the first week is a wash. The best bet is unquestionably the morning of Saturday the 15th, with the morning of Sunday the 16th as a close second. The second week has a brief spike of messy windswell, but ends on a clean, mellow note.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, fresh winds from the NW by Sun afternoon).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Sun night, calm by Mon night).

Friday
7
Saturday
8
Sunday
9
Monday
10
Tuesday
11
Wednesday
12
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
0
1
2
1
1
3
3
1
3
2
1
2
2
2
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
SW
18
0.4
SW
18
0.5
SW
19
0.5
SW
16
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
SSW
17
2.5
NW
9
2.3
NW
9
2
WNW
9
2.3
WNW
9
1.6
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.6
WNW
9
1.5
WNW
10
1.3
WNW
9
1.6
WNW
9
1.3
WNW
9
1.2
WNW
8
0.6
SW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
81
85
181
133
204
202
937
826
637
865
389
273
389
394
286
441
273
202
169
Wind (km/h)
15
WNW
10
WSW
20
WNW
10
WNW
5
SW
20
WNW
20
NW
20
NW
30
NW
25
NW
10
WSW
15
W
5
SSE
10
S
15
WNW
10
SE
20
SSE
10
S
10
SSE
Wind State
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
on
on
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
High Tide
9:12AM1.13m
7:24PM1.84m
10:25AM1.23m
8:28PM1.90m
11:17AM1.32m
9:31PM1.96m
12:01PM1.40m
10:30PM1.99m
12:41PM1.46m
11:25PM1.98m
1:19PM1.52m
00:18AM1.93m
Low Tide
2:23AM0.11m
1:27PM0.90m
3:30AM-0.03m
2:48PM0.94m
4:30AM-0.16m
3:59PM0.91m
5:23AM-0.25m
5:00PM0.83m
6:10AM-0.30m
5:56PM0.73m
6:54AM-0.29m
6:49PM0.62m
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:18
6:20
6:20
6:22
6:22
6:22
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:15
8:14
8:13
8:12
8:10
8:09
8:08
 mm
Temp °C
12
14
15
12
15
16
14
16
15
14
14
15
13
15
15
13
17
17
15
Feels °C
9
13
13
9
15
15
11
13
11
8
13
14
11
14
15
11
14
15
15
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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