
Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 13 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 8s period, NW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 8s period, WNW swell with 912 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 12 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 2.5m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Sun 12th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Mon 13th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Drakes Estero.
The forecast starts off with a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got some usable swell right from Sunday morning, July 12th, with waves around 4ft out of the WNW. The wind is glassy out of the SSW at just 3 mph, so the surface will be buttery smooth. The combined energy is moderate (473). It’s not the biggest swell in the world, but for a beginner-friendly spot like this, it’s a decent way to start the period. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.
Now, Monday morning, July 13th, is where things get a bit more interesting. The swell jacks up to 6ft from the NW, and the combined energy jumps to 918 (moderate). That’s a solid step up in push. The wind is a light cross-off at 6 mph, so the waves will hold their shape. This is probably the best session of the first week if you want a bit more power without it getting too hairy. It’s still manageable for most, but the bigger sets will be a handful for absolute beginners.
Tuesday through Thursday see the swell hanging around in the 4ft to 8ft range, but the wind picks up. We’re looking at 15 to 28 mph NW winds, which is strong cross-off stuff. It’ll keep the waves looking clean from the wind’s direct hit, but it’s going to be tough paddling and the wave quality will suffer. The combined energy stays moderate (between 440 and 922). There’s a period on Thursday afternoon, July 16th, where the swell hits 8ft with 28 mph winds – that’s expert territory with a lot of wind power, and honestly, it looks more like a windy mess than a fun surf. The later part of the week stays similar, with moderate energy and fresh winds.
Then we hit a bit of a lull. From Saturday, July 18th, through to Wednesday, July 22nd, the swell drops right off. We’re looking at 2ft to 3ft waves, mostly from the SW. The energy is still moderate (354 to 684), but the heights are small. There’s one interesting blip on Sunday afternoon, July 19th, with a 2ft swell from the SW but a very long 18-second period. That’s a groundswell with some real pulse, but it’s too small to do much at this beach/river mouth setup. The wind is light and cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but you’ll be fighting for scraps.
The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, comes in the second week. On Thursday, July 23rd, the morning shows us 6ft from the WNW with a 10-second period and light cross-off wind. The energy is a solid 859 (moderate). That’s a proper, clean, punchy wave. But the best of the whole run? Look at Saturday, July 25th, morning. The swell is only 3ft, but it’s from the SW with a 21-second period. The combined energy jumps to 1031 (moderate). That’s a very long period groundswell, and here at a beach/river break, it might be a bit too straight for the banks, but if it lines up right, you’ll have long, walled-up waves. The wind is light cross-off at 6 mph. It’s a promising but long-range standout, so fingers crossed.
Then on Sunday, July 26th, and Monday, July 27th, the swell sticks around the 3ft to 4ft mark from the SW with long periods (18-20 seconds), and the energy is strong (1157 to 1385). The wind is glassy or light cross-off on Monday morning, July 27th. That’s another excellent window for experienced surfers who can work the longer-period lines.
Overall, there’s a lot of average days with wind, but the real gems are the Monday morning of the 13th, and the Saturday and Monday of the 25th and 27th. Keep your eyes on those.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun morning, min 12°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed morning, min 11°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NW on Tue night, strong winds from the NW by Thu night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Sat 18 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | W 16 | W 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
284 | 249 | 249 | 360 | 467 | 334 | 336 | 220 | 240 | 286 | 247 | 518 | 506 | 362 | 791 | 521 | 352 | 323 | 390 | 251 | 248 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:40PM1.99m | 12:22PM1.33m | 10:35PM2.05m | 1:09PM1.40m | 11:29PM2.06m | 1:53PM1.45m | 00:23AM2.02m | 2:34PM1.49m | 1:16AM1.93m | 3:15PM1.53m | 2:09AM1.79m | 3:55PM1.58m | 3:04AM1.60m | 4:34PM1.61m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:35AM-0.33m | 5:00PM0.88m | 6:25AM-0.42m | 5:58PM0.85m | 7:14AM-0.45m | 6:55PM0.79m | 8:00AM-0.43m | 7:52PM0.72m | 8:44AM-0.35m | 8:50PM0.65m | 9:27AM-0.22m | 9:51PM0.59m | 10:08AM-0.05m | ||||||||
— | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:03 | — | |
8:36 | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:34 | — | — | 8:34 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:31 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 8 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | W 18 | W 17 | W 17 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
204 | 249 | 249 | 360 | 273 | 156 | 154 | 106 | 85 | 87 | 60 | 56 | 90 | 89 | 89 | 159 | 217 | 215 | 390 | 243 | 177 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | W 14 | SW 19 | W 14 | W 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | W 20 | W 19 | SSW 12 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 14 | W 16 | W 16 | W 16 |
229 | 200 | 208 | 206 | 158 | 34 | 96 | 36 | 65 | 152 | 108 | 74 | 127 | 116 | 26 | 77 | 130 | 74 | 254 | 251 | 248 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | W 18 | W 18 | W 16 | W 16 | WSW 20 | W 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | W 13 | W 13 | W 20 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 14 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 18 |
2 | 24 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 37 | 38 | 58 | 50 | 56 | 55 | 72 | 27 | 27 | 16 | 54 | 74 | 88 | 72 | 190 | 201 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 7 | — | — | — | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | — | — | — |
284 | — | — | — | 467 | 334 | 336 | 220 | 240 | 286 | 247 | 518 | 506 | 362 | 791 | 521 | 352 | 323 | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 240 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 26 | 1 | 144 | 32 | 26 | 144 | 48 | 48 | 144 | 48 | 26 | 145 | 0 | 48 | 145 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











