Drakes Estero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening at Drakes Estero over the next couple of weeks.

Kicking things off, Friday and Saturday are a total bust. That NW wind is howling at 18-22 mph, churning up the 7 to 8 ft WNW swell. There's some grunt in the water, with combined energy readings of 960 and 852, but the surface is just blown out. Not worth getting wet.

Your first real chance for a clean wave is Sunday morning, July 12th. The wind drops right back to a light 6 mph breeze from the WNW, which’ll groom the surface glassy. The swell is a clean 5 ft from the WNW with a 9-second period and moderate energy at 604. This is the pick of the first week – not huge, but fun, clean, and consistent. A solid Sunday session.

Monday the 13th keeps the swell at 5-5 ft, but that wind picks up to a moderate 9-10 mph, so the face will get a bit bumpy. It’s still ridable, just not as perfect as Sunday. Tuesday and Wednesday see the swell back off a little but you've still got 4 to 6 ft waves in the mornings before the afternoon breeze gets messy.

Looking further down the line, we get a couple fun small windows. Saturday the 18th of July shows a very clean morning with a gentle 9 mph WNW breeze and a 2 ft swell. The cool part is the period jumps to 16 seconds – a proper long-period groundswell. Combined energy is 577, so it's not packing a punch, but that long period will wrap in clean and wall up. Grab a longboard.

The real second highlight is a long-range shout for Thursday the 23rd of July into Friday the 24th. On Thursday afternoon the wind swings light from the WSW at just 3 mph, with a solid 8 ft swell from the NW and a 9-second period. The energy jumps way up to a strong 1225. If that wind holds, it could be a serious heavy session. Then Friday morning the 24th cleans up with a 6 mph light breeze and a 7 ft WNW swell at 940 energy. That’s a big swell, over 7 ft for sure, so it’s experts-only territory. But with light winds and that energy, it’s going to be the best session of the whole forecast.

Water temp is about 57°F with a tiny anomaly of +0.7°F, so it’s average for this time of year – you'll definitely want a wetsuit.

Crowds can show up here sometimes, especially on the good days, so beat the rush. Also, keep in mind that a long-period swell from the SW can section off a bit on a beach break, but Drakes Estero being a beach and river mouth will handle it well.

Bottom line: skip everything until Sunday morning the 12th. That’s your first good call. Then keep your eyes peeled for Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th – that’s the real heavyweight session if things line up.

Stay stoked, catch you in the water.
Rusty.

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