Surf Forecasts:
Drakes Estero surf forecast from 12 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 16 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 502 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 12 Aug, 5PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Drakes Estero this week:
The surf forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 5PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Drakes Estero in the next 16 days are 1.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5PM (Wed 12th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Sun 16th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Drakes Estero over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up for our local stretch.
Right now, things are pretty flat and messy. We’ve got a bit of a lull to start, with the first few days looking pretty poor. The water’s sitting at 58°, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The first real window of opportunity comes on Friday, August 14th in the afternoon. Drakes Estero might be small, with 2ft of swell from the SSW, but the period is a very long 18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and with a clean cross-off breeze, those waves will be nicely shaped. The combined energy is moderate at 399. The only thing to keep in mind is that a long period like this can make beach breaks a bit tricky, but for a spot like this, it should set up nicely.
We then get a bit of a run of mornings. Monday, August 17th morning is looking good too – 3ft from the SW with a 14-second period, clean cross-off wind, and moderate energy at 356. It’s a consistent little run for a few days. Then, Wednesday, August 19th morning is a standout for me. The swell is 3ft from the SSW, 15-second period, but the real magic is the glassy conditions – zero wind. That’s a rare treat, delivering clean, smooth lines. The energy is moderate at 381. The crowds here can be around sometimes, but with the glass, it’s a great time to be out.
The second week gets a bit more interesting energy-wise. Monday, August 24th afternoon has 5ft from the WNW, 8-second period, with clean cross-off wind and moderate energy (480). Then Tuesday, August 25th afternoon sees the swell bump up to 5ft from the NW, energy climbing to 791 (strong), but that 8-second period is a bit short and choppy, and the wind is a moderate breeze. It’s a bit more of a mixed bag, but still worth a look for the size.
The very end of the outlook, Thursday, August 27th afternoon, is a solid note to finish on. 2ft from the SW, 18-second period, clean cross-off, and the energy is moderate at 563. It’s a promising long-range call, but you know how it is – we’ll keep an eye on it.
So, my pick of the whole period? Wednesday, August 19th morning. The glassy conditions with that 3ft, 15-second SSW groundswell are going to be a dream. Get out there.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 12°C on Wed morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 11°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | NW 8 | SSW 16 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 243 | 217 | 294 | 223 | 197 | 191 | 174 | 221 | 252 | 414 | 268 | 502 | 362 | 349 | 309 | 309 | 309 | 214 | 229 | 171 | 209 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:19PM1.52m | 00:18AM1.93m | 1:54PM1.57m | 1:09AM1.82m | 2:29PM1.62m | 2:01AM1.68m | 3:03PM1.65m | 2:54AM1.51m | 3:36PM1.67m | 3:52AM1.34m | 4:11PM1.66m | 5:02AM1.20m | 4:48PM1.64m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:49PM0.62m | 7:35AM-0.23m | 7:41PM0.52m | 8:14AM-0.12m | 8:33PM0.45m | 8:52AM0.03m | 9:25PM0.39m | 9:29AM0.22m | 10:19PM0.35m | 10:07AM0.42m | 11:17PM0.33m | 10:49AM0.62m | 00:20AM0.31m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | | | | |  | | | | | | | | | |  | |  | |
 | 6:22 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — |
 | — | 8:08 | — | — | 8:07 | — | — | 8:06 | — | — | 8:05 | — | — | 8:04 | — | — | 8:01 | — | — | 8:00 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 12 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WNW 8 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 |
| kJ | 243 | 217 | 294 | 223 | 197 | 142 | 104 | 76 | 42 | 414 | 268 | 502 | 362 | 349 | 309 | 309 | 309 | 214 | 153 | 171 | 169 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 6 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | S 10 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 9 | W 8 | SW 15 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 150 | 130 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 191 | 174 | 221 | 252 | 32 | 85 | 20 | 102 | 18 | 27 | 23 | 26 | 35 | 217 | 84 | 84 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 10 | SW 13 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | S 10 | SSW 18 | W 13 | W 15 | W 14 |
| kJ | 65 | 67 | 27 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 97 | 102 | 167 | 20 | 85 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 29 | 25 | 7 | 32 | 14 | 17 | 37 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 7 | WNW 5 | — | WNW 10 | WNW 6 | — | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 56 | 31 | — | 72 | 43 | — | 28 | 55 | 229 | 153 | 209 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 145 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 26 | 48 | 147 | 24 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 32 | 26 | 145 | 48 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Drakes Estero Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Drakes Estero provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Drakes Estero can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Drakes Estero surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Drakes Estero) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Drakes Estero may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Drakes Estero is 34 km (21 miles) from the city of Novato. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Novato. Novato has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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