
Surf Forecasts:
The Patch surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 8s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 8s period, WNW swell with 643 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 8s period with NW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:
The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.2m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.7m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.5m and 18s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 2.2m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 11PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 11PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer at The Patch over the next couple of weeks.
Right off the bat, we’re looking at a bit of a wait. The first few days have some swell, but the conditions are messy and the scores are low. Thursday the 16th kicks off with a clean-looking 6ft to 7ft swell from the WNW, but the wind is a stiff cross-off at 15-18 mph, and the wave comment says it all – marginal. The combined energy is moderate, around 622-740, but it’s just not coming together for a good session. The water is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a nice little bonus for the wetsuit crew.
We’re going to have a dry spell through the end of this week and into the weekend. Friday the 17th morning has a brief flicker of hope with 5ft from the WNW and a lighter cross-off breeze, but the swell period is a short 8 seconds, so those waves will be a bit weak and crumbly. Saturday and Sunday, the swell drops right off to 2ft-3ft. The periods get long (16-18 seconds), but the energy is still moderate, and the wind is fluky, mostly cross or light cross-off. It’s just not enough to get excited about.
Monday and Tuesday of the following week (21st and 22nd July) are flat or poor. The wind turns onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is tiny and weak. This is a real gap in the action.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The real standout is shaping up for the end of the month. From Friday the 24th of July, the energy jumps significantly. The combined energy readings hit 1034 to 1428 – that’s strong energy. The swell on Friday the 24th is a touch smaller at 2ft-4ft, but the period on the morning is a massive 24 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell, and it’s coming from the SW. This kind of energy is going to line up beautifully at The Patch, which is an exposed spot. The wind is a clean cross-off from the WNW, so the faces will be smooth. It’s a bit of a wait, but the Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are looking even better, with clean 3ft-3ft swells and periods of 20-21 seconds. The energy stays strong (1344-1368). This is the best window on offer.
The absolute peak of the whole forecast looks like Monday the 27th of July. The morning shows a 6ft swell from the WNW, 9-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 1112. The wind is a light 9 mph cross-off from the WNW, making for clean, lined-up waves. The wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s the one to circle. The afternoon drops off a bit, but the morning session is where it’s at.
The final few days, from the 28th to the 31st, settle back down. The swell stays around 3ft-4ft, with periods of 14-18 seconds, and the wind holds mostly cross-off. It’s consistent, clean, and surfable, but the energy is moderate (444-888). Nothing wrong with it, but it won’t touch that peak on the 27th.
So, if you’re patient, the best surf is the Monday morning of the 27th of July. Big, clean, powerful swell for experienced surfers. The weekend before that (24th-26th) is also a fantastic run of long-period groundswell with clean conditions. The first week and a half is mostly a washout.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 21°C on Tue morning, min 12°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | SW 17 | W 16 | W 16 | SW 16 | SSW 17 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 11 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
353 | 487 | 521 | 298 | 270 | 208 | 243 | 258 | 174 | 211 | 522 | 581 | 421 | 286 | 303 | 421 | 229 | 262 | 245 | 194 | 264 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | glassy | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:40PM1.15m | 1:34AM1.34m | 3:20PM1.18m | 2:29AM1.20m | 3:59PM1.20m | 3:28AM1.05m | 4:38PM1.22m | 4:36AM0.91m | 5:18PM1.23m | 6:02AM0.80m | 6:00PM1.23m | 7:47AM0.77m | 6:45PM1.23m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:17AM-0.24m | 8:22PM0.43m | 9:00AM-0.15m | 9:22PM0.39m | 9:42AM-0.03m | 10:26PM0.35m | 10:24AM0.11m | 11:33PM0.30m | 11:09AM0.24m | 00:42AM0.24m | 11:57AM0.37m | 1:50AM0.17m | 12:54PM0.49m | 2:52AM0.11m | |||||||
6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | |
— | 8:31 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:28 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 14 |
Feels °C | 12 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | W 17 | W 17 | W 16 | WNW 7 | W 16 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | SSW 17 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | S 8 | SW 14 | SSW 14 |
124 | 124 | 110 | 147 | 214 | 188 | 125 | 243 | 102 | 149 | 522 | 581 | 421 | 286 | 303 | 421 | 229 | 157 | 88 | 194 | 264 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 19 | W 19 | W 18 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 14 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | SW 16 | W 15 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | S 8 | S 7 |
118 | 116 | 162 | 130 | 54 | 72 | 181 | 258 | 174 | 211 | 109 | 111 | 90 | 90 | 62 | 47 | 171 | 262 | 245 | 63 | 17 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SW 14 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 13 | NW 10 | W 16 | WSW 12 | W 14 | W 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | W 13 | NW 9 | WNW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 12 | SW 19 |
27 | 13 | 13 | 54 | 54 | 48 | 243 | 44 | 27 | 170 | 14 | 102 | 65 | 245 | 161 | 30 | 37 | 26 | 17 | 27 | 58 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | — | WNW 7 | — | — | WNW 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 6 |
353 | 487 | 521 | 298 | 270 | 208 | — | 99 | — | — | 134 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 59 | 116 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 121 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 121 | 22 | 22 | 121 | 0 | 22 | 25 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 31 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 122 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










