The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and talk about The Patch for the next couple of weeks. To be straight with you, the start is a total dud. Water temp is 60°F, which is about 3°F above normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you’re staring at a flat ocean.

Sunday the 9th is the only thing that looks half-decent early on. We’ve got a 4ft WNW swell with a 10-second period and a light cross-on breeze. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. The energy is moderate (520). The afternoon goes cross-off but it’s the same size, nothing special.

From Monday the 10th to Saturday the 15th, it’s a wasteland. Swell drops off, wind is messy. We get some long-period SW swell on the 13th and 14th, but it’s tiny, around 2ft, and with those long 16-18 second periods, it just makes for some weak lines. Energy readings in the 300s are weak. This is a proper flat spell, so don't bother getting wet.

We get a bit of a tease on Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th with a small 3ft to 3ft SW swell, but it’s cross-on. Still, nothing to write home about.

Now, here is where we get a spark. Tuesday the 19th in the morning, we get a clean 2ft SW groundswell with a 15-second period and light offshore WNW wind. The energy is up to 515. It's small but clean, a sign that things are turning. The afternoon gets windier and the swell jumps to 6ft, but with a junky 7-second period. That’s not going to be fun.

But the standout, the one you should be circling on the calendar, is Thursday the 20th in the morning. A solid 5ft WNW swell with a 10-second period, light cross-off winds, and the energy is cranking at 888. This is the biggest, cleanest, and most powerful swell of the whole forecast. The Patch is a fairly consistent beach break, and it will be handling this with some real push. It’s not too big, but it's got some weight. That’s your session.

Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd are back to junky, short-period slop, with cross-shore winds. Not good.

Then we get a bigger pulse on Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th, with waves hitting 7ft. But it’s coming with a cross-on breeze and a short 8-second period. The energy on Sunday morning is massive, over 1000, but with that wind and short period, it’s going to be a close-out mess. This setup looks more interesting for kitesurfing than paddling.

So, to put it plainly: the first week and a half is a complete loss. Your best bet, and it’s a good one, is Thursday the 20th. It's a few days out, so it’s promising but not set in stone, but right now it’s the clear winner. Mark it down.

Rusty.

Read more