The Patch Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.90° N 122.70° W

The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 pm 27 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Patch sea temperature is
15.5° C
1.8° 

The Patch surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Patch surf forecast from 28 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 1 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, WNW swell with 1,275 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 28 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 17s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:

The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 12s. Another secondary swell of 1.5m and 7s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 3.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8AM (Tue 28th Jul)3ft (0.9m) 17s
Best Surf 8PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 9s
Most Powerful 8PM (Sat 1st Aug)10ft (3.0m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid run of surf coming up at The Patch, but it’s not for the faint of heart. The week ahead is shaping up with a few standout windows, especially for the experienced crew.

The pattern starts Tuesday, 28 July. The swell is a long-period groundswell out of the SW at 4 ft, with a period of 18 seconds. That’s proper energy, and the combined energy reading is 885 (moderate). The wind is a light cross-offshore from the WNW at 9 mph, so the surf will be clean. But it’s marginal for tide conditions, so it’s not firing at its best. The water temperature feels about average for this time of year.

Wednesday, 29 July, is a better call. The morning sees a 3 ft SW swell, still a long 16-second period, with lighter WNW winds at 6 mph. The energy is 856 (moderate), and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the pick of the first few days – clean, manageable, and a little more consistent.

By Thursday, 30 July, the swell swings to the NW at 7 ft but the period drops to 8 seconds. That’s a short-period wind swell, and it’s more power: 1390 (moderate to strong). The morning winds are light cross-off at 9 mph, so it’s clean. But this is expert territory – 7 ft is heavy, and the short period means it’ll be punchy. The Patch is exposed, so it’ll take the full hit. If you’re experienced, the Thursday morning window is a standout.

Friday, 31 July, and Saturday, 1 August, keep the energy up. Friday morning has 6 ft NW swell with 8-second period, 1023 (moderate), and light WNW winds. Saturday morning hits 7 ft NW again, 1176 (moderate), still clean with light winds. Both mornings are excellent for experienced surfers. The combo of size, light wind, and cross-off conditions makes these the best of the week.

Sunday, 2 August, eases a touch with 7 ft WNW swell at 9 seconds, 755 (moderate), and light winds. Still good, but not a standout.

From Monday, 3 August, things get messy. The wind swings onshore from the S, and the quality drops. The swell holds around 5–6 ft, but the wind and tide conditions are marginal. This stretch through to Wednesday, 12 August, is a mixed bag. There’s a brief window on Thursday, 6 August, with 5 ft WNW swell, 10-second period, 515 (moderate), and clean cross-off winds – “expect very good surf conditions” – but it’s not as big as the earlier days.

After that, it fades. From Friday, 7 August, onward, the swell drops to 4–4 ft, and poor surf conditions dominate. The onshore winds and small swell mean it’s flat and choppy. The Patch goes quiet until the very last record on Wednesday, 12 August, where a tiny 2 ft SW groundswell pops up with a 18-second period, but it’s barely enough to get excited about. The overall energy is 459 (weak), and the wind is light cross-on. Not worth paddling out.

So, the standout is Thursday, 30 July, through Saturday, 1 August, mornings. Big NW swell, clean cross-off winds, and plenty of grunt for the experts. Wednesday, 29 July, morning is the best for someone wanting a smaller, cleaner wave. After that, the second week is a write-off – a long gap of poor conditions from the 7th onwards.

Keep an eye on the forecast, but for now, get your sessions in early.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Sat afternoon, min 13°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Sat afternoon, light winds from the NW by Sun morning).

Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
2
3
4
2
2
4
1
3
3
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
SW
19
1.1
SW
18
1.1
SW
18
1
SW
17
1
SW
16
1.1
SW
16
2.1
WNW
8
2.2
NW
8
2
WNW
8
1.9
WNW
8
1.9
NW
8
1.6
WNW
8
1.9
WNW
8
2.2
NW
8
2.3
WNW
8
2.5
WNW
9
2
WNW
9
1.9
WNW
9
2.2
WNW
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
427
679
781
560
527
610
569
602
496
454
473
270
464
617
738
961
644
599
906
Wind (km/h)
20
NW
15
WNW
25
WNW
15
NW
10
WNW
25
WNW
15
WNW
15
WNW
25
WNW
15
NW
10
WNW
25
WNW
15
WNW
10
WNW
30
WNW
20
NW
10
WNW
20
WNW
5
SW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
High Tide
10:34PM1.31m
12:57PM0.99m
11:13PM1.31m
1:23PM1.01m
11:52PM1.30m
1:48PM1.04m
00:30AM1.27m
2:13PM1.08m
1:11AM1.21m
2:40PM1.11m
1:55AM1.13m
3:08PM1.16m
2:46AM1.02m
Low Tide
6:26AM-0.08m
6:07PM0.58m
6:57AM-0.09m
6:43PM0.55m
7:27AM-0.08m
7:20PM0.52m
7:57AM-0.05m
8:00PM0.48m
8:27AM-0.01m
8:44PM0.43m
8:59AM0.07m
9:34PM0.37m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:09
6:11
6:11
6:11
6:13
6:13
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:23
8:22
8:22
8:21
8:20
8:19
8:19
 mm
Temp °C
14
17
18
15
17
17
14
17
17
15
18
18
14
18
19
16
17
18
14
Feels °C
10
15
14
11
16
13
10
15
14
10
16
15
10
16
15
12
16
17
12
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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