The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here, giving you the lowdown on the surf for The Patch for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed story, but we've got some solid windows to work with.

The water is sitting at about 62°F, which is a few degrees warmer than normal for this time of year—a real treat.

We’ve got waves on offer from Monday the 14th. The morning is looking clean with 4-5ft swell from the WNW at 9 seconds, with a light cross-offshore breeze. It’s not huge, but it’s tidy and the wave energy is moderate (420). The afternoon stays clean with similar 5ft surf, but the wind picks up to 12 mph, so the morning is your best bet for that day.

Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th see the swell drop a bit to around 4ft, but the wind is a bit messy—onshore or cross-on—so the conditions aren’t as clean. The energy stays moderate, but you’ll be dealing with some chop.

Then we hit a lull. From Thursday the 17th right through to Sunday the 20th, we’re looking at small stuff, mostly 2ft to 2ft. The swell switches to a long-period groundswell from the SW (16 to 19 seconds). While that sounds good, the wave energy is moderate (240 to 478), but the size just isn't there to get excited about. The winds are mostly light and clean, so you could sneak a tiny one, but don’t expect much.

After that dry spell, the surf starts to pick up again. Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd bring back a consistent 4ft from the WNW. The wind is light and mostly cross or onshore, so it’s not perfect, but the energy is building (615 to 718). Tuesday afternoon sees the period stretch to 12 seconds, hinting at a bit more punch.

Wednesday the 23rd is more of the same, but by the afternoon it’s dropping back to around 2ft.

The next real standout looks to be Saturday the 28th and especially Tuesday the 29th. Saturday sees a solid 5-6ft swell in the morning, building to a powerful 8ft from the NW on Sunday the 27th. That Sunday morning is packing some serious energy (1419) – that’s strong wave power. However, at 8ft and a short period (8 seconds), this is strictly for the experts. The wind is light cross-on, so it might be a bit lumpy.

The absolute gem in this forecast is Tuesday the 29th morning. We’ve got a clean 5ft from the WNW, with a 10-second period, and a slight offshore breeze. The energy is high (731) and the conditions are described as "very good". This is the one to circle on the calendar. The wind stays clean in the afternoon, but gets stronger.

So, to wrap it up: the best clean, manageable surf is Monday morning (14th) and Tuesday morning (29th). The big, expert-only stuff hits Sunday the 27th. Everything else is either too small or a bit wind-affected.

Rusty, out.

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