The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, it's Rusty here. Let's take a long, hard look at the forecast for The Patch.

To be honest, the next week is a bit of a struggle. The Patch is an exposed spot getting plenty of SW swell, and the water is running a couple of degrees warmer than usual for this time of year (63°F), but the wind and conditions just aren't lining up. We start the period on Sunday the 13th with a weak 2ft SW groundswell (15.7m energy) but the cross-offshore wind is a solid 19 mph, making it a write-off. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th see the swell jump to around 5ft from the WNW, but wind is either onshore or cross, and the short period (8-9 seconds) means the waves will lack any real punch. The forecast quality is poor – it’s a stretch to even call it a session.

We have a gap of several days here with nothing making the cut. The energy stays moderate (between 200 and 400) but the conditions are messy. Thursday the 17th has a tiny bit of long-period SW swell (16 seconds) but only 2ft – barely a ripple. The real silent period runs from the 13th through the 19th.

The Turnaround

Looking ahead, the forecast starts to show some promise. The absolute standout is the morning of Monday, September 21st. We’ve got a clean 3ft SW groundswell coming in with a nice long period of 17 seconds, and the wind is forecast to be glassy (3 mph from the SW). This is the kind of clean, lined-up swell that makes The Patch work – expect clean faces and good shape from a moderate energy pulse (585). It’s a beginner-friendly size, and the glassy wind will make paddling out a dream. This is your best bet by a country mile.

After that, the following week stays interesting. The morning of Friday, September 25th is another one to circle. We see 5ft of WNW swell (10-second period) with light cross-offshore wind from the W (3 mph). The combined energy is solidly moderate (545), and the clean conditions should produce some good, rideable waves.

The very end of the forecast window, Sunday, September 27th afternoon, throws a huge spike in energy: a massive 4081 energy reading pushing 8ft of short-period (8 second) WNW swell. While the energy is massive, that’s a lot of power for a short-period windswell. The wind is a moderate cross-off (12 mph). This one is for experienced surfers only, and even then, it might be a bit of a war zone rather than a classic day. The morning of the 27th is a much safer call with glassy 5ft and moderate energy (499).

So, dust off your board for the 21st. Everything else up to that point is a frustrating wait.

Rusty.

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