The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s shaping up for The Patch over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a solid run of clean, rideable waves kicking off the period. The first few days are looking pretty good, but don’t get too excited about the weekend after that – things get dicey for a while. The standout window is definitely the middle of next week.

We start Monday the 27th of July with a long-period SW groundswell at about 3ft, but the energy is already building. Wind is cross-offshore from the WNW, so the surface is clean. The combined swell energy is already moderate at 756. Tuesday the 28th keeps the same vibe: 4ft of SW swell with that long 18-second period, cross-off wind, and energy climbing to 939. Both mornings are rideable, but the real magic happens Wednesday the 29th of July. The morning has a clean 3ft SW swell with a 16-second period, cross-off wind, and the combined energy jumps to 1220 – that’s strong wave energy. The report flags it as excellent for experienced surfers. That Wednesday morning is the absolute best on offer in this whole outlook. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing wild.

Thursday the 30th sees a shift. The morning drops to 3ft from the SSW with a 16-second period, still clean and moderate energy (893). But the afternoon throws in a 6ft WNW windswell with a short, punchy 8-second period. That’s a different beast – more power but less shape. Friday the 31st is a bit smaller again, 3ft from the SSW with a 14-second period, light cross-shore wind, and energy dropping to 505. It’s clean but not as exciting.

Now, Saturday the 1st of August brings a bit of a pulse. The morning has a 6ft NW windswell at 8 seconds, with light cross-shore wind and energy at 1098 – that’s strong. The afternoon drops to 6ft but the wind picks up. Sunday the 2nd of August has the biggest raw numbers: an 8ft NW swell at 9 seconds in the morning, with energy hitting 1955 – that’s very strong wave energy. But the wind is light cross-shore. At 8ft, this is only for experts. The period is short, so it’ll be a bit lumpy and less organized.

Then we hit a rough patch. From Monday the 3rd of August through to Monday the 10th of August, the quality plummets. The wind turns onshore or cross-onshore for most of that stretch, and the reports are flagging poor to marginal conditions. There are a few days with height around 5ft to 6ft, but the wind is from the south or southwest, ruining the surface. Tuesday the 4th and Friday the 7th of August are particularly poor. After that, waves drop right off to 2ft – 2ft with onshore wind, making it virtually unsurfable. That’s a good week or so of very slim pickings from the 3rd through to the 11th.

The only flicker of light in that second week is Thursday the 6th of August. The morning has 7ft from the WNW at 10 seconds, with light cross-onshore wind and energy at 1019. The afternoon is 7ft at 11 seconds with cross-shore wind and energy at 1183. It’s marginal, but if you’re desperate, it’s the cleanest of that ugly bunch. Still, the wind is never fully offshore, so it’s not a standout.

The Patch breaks on an exposed, SW-facing beach. The long-period swells (16-18 seconds) we see early on are classy groundswell, but at a beach break they can be a bit straight and tricky. The Wednesday morning on the 29th of July is the one to circle – that’s the pick of the whole run. For the rest, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty, signing off.

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