Surf Forecasts:
The Patch surf forecast from 25 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 29 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 8s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 27 Jul, 2PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 18s period, SW swell with 844 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 29 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 8s period with NW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:
The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.4m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.9m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 1.0m and 16s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 1.1m 18s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 2PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 8ft (2.4m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 8ft (2.4m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 2PM (Mon 27th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here again. Let's talk about The Patch in feet and degrees. The water's a balmy 61°F, which is a solid 4°F warmer than typical for this time of year – a real anomaly. The waves, though? It's a long, drawn-out period of mediocre surf.
Starting Saturday, July 25th, we've got small, clean, waist-high swell from the SW. The combined energy is moderate, around 858, dropping to 655 in the afternoon. Winds are cross-off, so the surface is clean, but the waves are just marginal. This same small, clean pattern repeats through Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. The swell energy stays in the moderate range, peaking at 1163 Tuesday afternoon, but the height is still only about 4 feet. It's a frustrating run of look-but-don't-touch.
Wednesday, July 29th, is the clear standout of the first week. The morning is the best window. The swell is 3 feet from the SW, with a nice 16-second period, and combined energy of 910. The wind is a gentle cross-off at 9 mph, offering the cleanest, most promising conditions in the entire forecast. The afternoon jumps to 7 feet, but it's a short-period WNW windswell at just 8 seconds, which will be a choppy, low-quality mess.
Thursday the 30th morning is okay again, with a clean 3 feet SSW swell, but the energy is already dropping. After that, it's downhill. Friday the 31st and Saturday, August 1st, offer small, cleanish waves, but nothing special. The real trouble hits Sunday, August 2nd, with a 6 feet WNW swell, but the wind goes onshore, and the quality vanishes. The following days are a total loss: poor surf, messy conditions, and dropping energy. There's a 7-day stretch from August 2nd to August 9th where the options are either poor or straight-up bad. The only glimmer is Sunday, August 9th, when a new 4 feet WNW swell shows up, but with onshore wind, it's a long shot.
So, the one true standout is Wednesday, July 29th, in the morning. The Patch is a fairly consistent break, so we can hope conditions change, but for now, that's your best bet.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue morning, min 12°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 16 | WNW 8 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 520 | 442 | 616 | 791 | 427 | 679 | 679 | 579 | 527 | 593 | 650 | 430 | 335 | 344 | 456 | 449 | 449 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:18AM0.91m | 9:07PM1.26m | 11:56AM0.95m | 9:52PM1.29m | 12:29PM0.98m | 10:34PM1.31m | 12:57PM0.99m | 11:13PM1.31m | 1:23PM1.01m | 11:52PM1.30m | 1:48PM1.04m | 00:30AM1.27m | 2:13PM1.08m | 1:11AM1.21m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:59PM0.62m | 5:16AM-0.04m | 4:47PM0.61m | 5:53AM-0.06m | 5:29PM0.60m | 6:26AM-0.08m | 6:07PM0.58m | 6:57AM-0.09m | 6:43PM0.55m | 7:27AM-0.08m | 7:20PM0.52m | 7:57AM-0.05m | 8:00PM0.48m | ||||||||
 | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  | | | | |
 | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | — | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:22 | — | — | 8:21 | — | — | 8:20 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 17 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
Feels °C | 14 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 14 | WNW 7 |
| kJ | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 520 | 442 | 616 | 791 | 427 | 679 | 679 | 560 | 527 | 521 | 436 | 430 | 294 | 307 | 188 | 449 | 220 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 21 | SSW 11 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SSW 11 | S 18 | SW 9 | SSE 14 | SW 8 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | — | SSW 14 |
| kJ | 82 | 74 | 56 | 46 | 36 | 117 | 23 | 56 | 89 | 35 | 33 | 19 | 11 | 160 | 3 | 68 | 3 | 344 | 456 | — | 449 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 9 | SW 12 | S 10 | SW 15 | S 10 | SW 14 | SW 13 | — | SW 12 | S 10 | SSW 9 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SSE 16 | SSE 15 | — | — | SW 14 | — | — | SW 15 |
| kJ | 13 | 38 | 18 | 33 | 8 | 29 | 7 | — | 36 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 47 | 71 | — | — | 169 | — | — | 8 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | — | — | WNW 8 | — |
| kJ | 51 | 90 | 136 | 58 | 149 | 229 | 110 | 202 | 277 | 264 | 443 | 579 | 361 | 593 | 650 | 402 | 335 | — | — | 153 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 22 | 120 | 83 | 22 | 120 | 110 | 22 | 120 | 22 | 22 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 121 | 22 | 0 | 121 | 22 | 22 | 120 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our The Patch surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the The Patch Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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