The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the cards for The Patch over the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag ahead, with a pretty slow start and then some glimmers of hope later on. The water is running about 62°F at the start, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a nice little bonus.

First off, things kick off on Tuesday 15th September with small, weak swell around 5ft from the WNW, but the wind is cross-on and the conditions are messy. That combined wave energy is only moderate (386). Honestly, not worth getting wet for. This marginal stuff carries on through Wednesday 16th and Thursday 17th, with swell dropping to 2ft on Thursday, though the period jumps to a very long 16 seconds. That long period means it’ll be clean but there will be long lulls between sets.

On Friday 18th September, the swell stays small around 2ft, but the period is a massive 19 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, even if the height is tiny. The combined energy creeps up to 471 on Friday afternoon, and the wind goes cross-offshore, so the lines will be clean. It’s not a stand-out for size, but for a log or a longboard, it could be a fun, glassy session if you’re patient.

The real interest picks up from Monday 21st September. Monday morning sees the swell pick up to 3ft from the SW with a 17-second period, but the magic is the glassy wind. That’s a major positive – clean, smooth conditions with a combined energy of 705 (moderate to strong). This is the first true standout of the forecast. Tuesday 22nd September morning is also glassy, with a 4ft WNW swell at 10 seconds, and the energy is solid at 678. That’s the pick of the whole run, offering clean, punchy waves for intermediate surfers.

Through the rest of that week, the 23rd and 24th see clean conditions too, but the swell hangs around 4ft to 4ft, with solid 11-12 second periods. The 25th September (Friday) has a small 3ft WNW swell in the morning but the wind is onshore, so it’s poor. The afternoon improves with a 5ft WNW at 10 seconds and the energy jumps to 593, but it’s cross-onshore, so it won’t be the cleanest.

As we move into the final days of September, the swell fades back down to 2ft to 3ft with long periods, but winds remain cross-offshore or clean for the most part. The 29th September Tuesday morning session has clean 2ft SW swell at 14 seconds – good for a cruise. The very end of the month on 30th September is small and clean but only 1ft to 2ft; surfable for a patient soul on a foamie.

Best on offer: Glassy Monday 21st September (3ft SW, 17s) for the cleanest lines, and Tuesday 22nd September (4ft WNW, 10s) for the best combo of size and glass. Crowds at The Patch are only *sometimes* an issue, so you should have room to breathe.

If you’re a beginner, the 4ft days are fine with the right wind, but the bigger days around 5ft might push your limits. The long-period stuff (over 15 seconds) is best handled at the top or bottom of the tide at this beach-and-reef setup.

Stay tuned, but these two mid-week windows are your golden hours.

Rusty.

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