The Patch Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.90° N 122.70° W

The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 4 am 10 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Patch sea temperature is
14.7° C
1.6° 

The Patch surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Patch surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 11 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 8s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 15 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, WNW swell with 987 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 11 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 8s period with NW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:

The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.5m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.6m and 15s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 11PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 5AM (Sat 11th Jul)6ft (1.9m) 8s
Best Surf 5AM (Sat 11th Jul)6ft (1.9m) 8s
Most Powerful11PM (Wed 15th Jul)8ft (2.5m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.


Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down what's happening at The Patch for the next couple of weeks.

We've got a bit of a mixed bag. The first few days are nothing special, but there's a solid pulse building for the middle of next week. The water is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might not need the thickest rubber.

The Patch starts things off on Friday, the 10th of July. It's running around 7ft, but it's a lumpy WNW wind swell with a short period of 9 seconds and a moderate cross-off breeze. The wave energy is moderate (1076), but the conditions are just marginal. The wind picks up in the afternoon, making it worse.

Saturday the 11th looks a little better. The morning sees the swell drop to 6ft from the NW, but the wind is much lighter. It's still a cross-off, and the period is still short at 8 seconds. The energy has dropped to 688. Not a classic, but surfable.

Sunday the 12th is a mixed bag. The morning has a light cross-on wind from the SW, but the swell is a clean 5ft from the WNW with a 9-second period. The afternoon is the pick of the early weekend, with the wind backing off to a gentle cross-off and the waves still around 5ft. It's clean, but not firing.

Things really start to look good on Thursday the 16th of July. The morning session is the standout of the whole run. The swell jumps to 8ft from the WNW, with a 9-second period. The wave energy is strong at 1541. The wind is light from the WSW, just a light cross-shore bump. For an exposed spot like The Patch, that's about as good as it gets for a solid swell. This is the one to circle. It's a step up in size, so it's more for the experienced crew.

After that, the swell bottoms out. From Friday the 17th onward, we're looking at tiny waves, mostly between 2ft and 3ft. The periods get long, meaning long waits between sets, but the energy is weak. There's a bit of a bump from the SW on the 19th and 20th, but it's not enough to get excited about. The wind stays mostly cross or cross-off, keeping things clean, but there's just no power.

The long range into the 25th shows some promise with a very long period, 22-second, 1ft swell from the SW, but it's a long way out and the size is tiny. It's a real shame, because after that Thursday the 16th, the surf goes to sleep for a solid week.

So, the headline is clear: Thursday morning, the 16th of July, is your best bet. Get out there for that 8ft WNW swell with light winds. The rest of the period is pretty quiet.

Rusty, signing off.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat morning, min 11°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue morning, min 11°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
1
1
3
1
2
2
3
3
1
1
3
2
2
2
2
1
2
3
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2
WNW
9
1.9
WNW
8
1.7
WNW
8
1.7
NW
8
1.4
WNW
7
1.8
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
9
1.4
WNW
9
1.8
WNW
8
1.4
WNW
8
1.6
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
1.4
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
2
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
8
2.3
WNW
9
2.4
WNW
9
1.6
WNW
8
1.5
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
589
443
327
326
214
382
344
297
432
290
315
382
251
493
545
534
731
821
844
344
291
Wind (km/h)
20
WNW
25
WNW
20
WNW
10
WNW
20
WNW
10
WSW
10
SW
15
WNW
10
WNW
15
W
15
WNW
15
WNW
10
WNW
25
WNW
20
WNW
20
WNW
25
WNW
20
WNW
10
WSW
20
W
10
W
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
High Tide
9:51AM0.82m
8:12PM1.41m
10:56AM0.90m
9:06PM1.46m
11:49AM0.97m
10:02PM1.51m
12:36PM1.03m
10:56PM1.53m
1:18PM1.07m
11:49PM1.51m
2:00PM1.11m
00:42AM1.44m
2:40PM1.15m
1:34AM1.34m
Low Tide
2:28PM0.52m
4:17AM-0.16m
3:33PM0.56m
5:09AM-0.25m
4:34PM0.57m
5:59AM-0.30m
5:32PM0.55m
6:47AM-0.32m
6:29PM0.51m
7:33AM-0.30m
7:25PM0.47m
8:17AM-0.24m
8:22PM0.43m
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:56
5:56
5:58
5:58
5:58
6:00
6:01
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:35
8:34
8:34
8:32
8:32
8:31
8:31
 mm
Temp °C
15
15
13
17
17
14
17
17
13
16
16
14
18
18
16
17
16
13
15
16
12
Feels °C
12
11
8
15
14
11
16
15
10
14
14
12
17
15
11
14
12
8
13
14
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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