The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a pretty mixed bag coming up at The Patch over the next couple of weeks. The water’s sitting at 17°, which is a solid 2° warmer than usual for this time of year – you’ll notice it feels like a bit of a summer holdover.

The early part of the outlook is quiet. Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd offer tiny, weak swell with cross-off breezes, but the energy is low (212) and the waves are barely there. It’s a slow start, but from Sunday the 23rd, things start to perk up.

Sunday morning is the first real highlight. The wind goes glassy out of the southwest, and while the swell is only 4 ft from the WNW, the period is a short 8 seconds – not a groundswell, but it’s clean and the combined energy jumps to 325. It’s a fun, small morning for the loggers and longboarders, but don’t expect much push.

The real standout is Thursday the 27th through Saturday the 29th. Thursday morning brings 5 ft of short-period NW swell (7 seconds) with light cross-off winds and clean conditions. The energy is pumping at 557 – solid moderate energy. Friday the 28th morning is even better: 6 ft from the NW, same short period, but the energy hits 813, and it’s clean with a gentle breeze. This is the pick of the first week for a rippable, punchy beach break. The short period keeps it from being too strappy, but it’s got enough juice to get you going.

Then Saturday the 29th morning – wow. The combined energy rockets to 1569, a massive jump into strong wave energy. Swell is 3 ft from the SW with a long 18-second period, and the wind is light offshore from the WNW. This is a proper groundswell, and it’s going to produce some beautifully shaped, lined-up waves. The long period means it’ll peel better than the short-period stuff, but at a beach break like The Patch, it might break a bit straight in sections. Still, for experienced surfers, this is the best session on offer – clean, powerful, and with that rare combination of light wind and long-period groundswell.

After that, the second week settles into a more consistent but less exciting groove. From Sunday the 30th through to Saturday the 5th of September, the swell stays small to moderate (2 ft to 5 ft), mostly from the SW with cross-off winds. The energy drops back into the moderate range (200-700). There’s a decent morning on Wednesday the 2nd of September with 4 ft and clean conditions, and Saturday the 5th of September morning looks good for a clean 3 ft with light wind. But nothing else matches the punch of that late August run.

For the beginner crew, the early small days are fine, but once the swell pushes over 5 ft on the 27th and 28th, it might be a bit much. The Saturday the 29th session, with its long period and clean conditions, is definitely one for the more experienced crew.

Rusty.

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