The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get stuck into it. It’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for The Patch for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so let’s break it down.

The start of this run is pretty gutless. We’ve got a bit of swell rolling in for Friday the 11th, coming from the southwest with a period of 16 seconds, which is a nice long-period groundswell. But the size is small, only about 3ft, and the cross-shore wind is going to put a few ripples on it. The water’s a super warm 63°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so the neoprene can be thinner, but the waves are barely worth the paddle. The energy is moderate, around 630, but it’s just not doing much.

Saturday and Sunday are pretty much a write-off. The swell drops off, the wind picks up, and the period shortens right out. There might be a bit of a bump Saturday afternoon, but it’s short-period windswell, and the conditions look messy. You’d be better off finding something else to do.

There’s a slight pulse for Monday the 14th, with some waist-high WNW swell again, around 4-5ft, and it’s a bit more organized. But again, the wind swings around and mucks it up. The energy is still moderate.

The middle of the week is flat and poor. It’s a dead zone from the 15th through the 17th. There’s a tiny bit of energy but nothing surfable. It’s a good time to check your gear and make some repairs.

Now, we get to something interesting. On Friday the 18th, the morning session has a little 2ft southwest groundswell with a very long 19-second period. The wind is light and cross-offshore, which is looking clean. The energy is a 359. It’s small, and it’s a spot that is “fairly consistent,” but you’ll want to find a bank that can handle that long period. A reef or a point would be better than the beach, but it’s The Patch we’re talking about, so it is what it is.

The weekend of the 19th and 20th gets a bit messy. The mornings look alright, small and clean, but the afternoons are getting a fresh cross-offshore breeze that’s backing off the swell. The size jumps up to 6-7ft but it’s short-period windswell (7 seconds) which is pretty junky. It looks more like a kitesurfing day than a surf day, to be honest, especially with that fresh wind.

We start the next week with a better-looking morning on Monday the 21st. The swell is back to a clean 2ft southwest groundswell, with a 17-second period, and light offshore winds. That’s a decent clean, small window.

The 22nd sees a WNW swell with a little more size, around 4-5ft but with a shorter 8-second period. The morning is glassy with a light cross-shore, but it’s not the best quality. The afternoon is cleaner with a cross-offshore wind.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. The end of the run has the most potential. On Wednesday the 23rd, we’ve got a 7ft NW swell in the morning, but the period is only 8 seconds and the wind is onshore. The energy jumps to a 1059, which is strong, but the quality will be poor. The afternoon settles a bit with a 7ft swell, but it’s still not ideal.

But Thursday the 24th is the standout. The morning is all-time conditions. We’re looking at a 6ft WNW swell, and the sky is clear with light, glassy winds. The energy is a strong 888. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions” and I believe it. The swell direction is just west of the SW optimum, but the quality and the wind should make it the best break of the run. The afternoon stays clean with a 5ft swell, so it’s a solid day.

Friday the 25th is also looking very promising. Another glassy morning with a 4-5ft WNW swell, this time with a slightly longer 11-second period. The energy is a 588. It’s a bit smaller than Thursday, but still a great, clean day. It’s a good option if you get skunked on the Thursday.

After that, the weekend of the 26th and 27th looks like it fades out again, back to small, shorter-period leftovers. It’s back to the mediocre stuff.

So, to be straight with you, this isn't a run for the highlight reel. There’s a lot of small, messy stuff. But if you’re keen, the best bets are the glassy mornings on Thursday the 24th (6ft WNW) and Friday the 25th (4-5ft WNW). Those have the best combination of size, clean conditions, and solid energy. The 21st is a bit smaller but still a decent clean window.

Crowds are “sometimes” an issue at The Patch, so if you can get one of these glassy days, it might be worth a look. But don't tell everyone.

Rusty out.

Read more