The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a bit of a slow start at The Patch, but there’s some real promise building through the back half of the forecast if you’re patient.

Right now, the surf is pretty marginal. Saturday the 15th has a clean 0.8ft to 1.0ft SW groundswell (energy around 447–493) but it’s small and a little wind-affected. Not worth paddling out for unless you’re just getting started – this spot’s a beginner-friendly, fairly consistent beach break, exposed to SW swell. Water temp is sitting at 59°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th stay small, with the same 0.8ft SW groundswell and mostly cross or cross-off winds. The afternoon on Sunday cleans up a little (moderate energy 372), but it’s still only a 2/5 kind of day – nothing to get excited about.

Now, Tuesday the 18th morning is where things start to nudge. We get a 1ft WNW swell (energy 363), but check the period – only 7 seconds. That’s short-period windswell, so it’ll be lumpy and lack push. Not your classic clean groundswell day.

Wednesday the 19th morning is the first real standout. The swell jumps to 2ft from the NW with an 8-second period (energy 923). That’s moderate wave energy, and with a light WNW cross-off breeze, it’ll be clean. This is getting into the “too big for beginners” territory – over 2ft – so if you’re newer, sit this one out. For everyone else, it’s a solid session.

There’s a bit of a lull after that until Friday the 21st morning. Another 2ft NW groundswell (energy 754), 8-second period, light cross-off wind – clean again. Another good one for intermediate and up.

Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd keep things ticking with 1ft to 2ft WNW swell, but the energy drops into the 400s, and winds stay cross-off. Solid but not spectacular.

Then we hit a quieter stretch from Monday the 24th through to Wednesday the 27th. Swell sizes drop below 1.0ft, periods get weirdly long (17–20 seconds) from the S and SSW – that’s groundswell but with very little height. Combined energy stays moderate (294–785), but with those long periods, the sets will be few and far between. Not worth rushing out for.

Thursday the 28th morning looks promising again – 1.0ft SSW groundswell, 13-second period, energy 694, clean cross-off wind. A sneaky good morning if the tide plays ball.

But the absolute highlight? That’s Saturday the 29th morning. Glassy. As in, glassy. Wind is SSW at just 3 mph, flat calm. You’re looking at 1.0ft SW groundswell with an 18-second period – that’s very long-period groundswell, proper energy (925). It’s small but with that length, it’ll wrap nicely and hold shape. Just keep in mind that long-period swell like this can get a bit straight at beach breaks – The Patch is exposed so it should still work fine, but the better shaped lines might be further down the beach.

Sunday the 30th afternoon sees the biggest energy of the whole run – 2ft NW swell, 9-second period, energy 1259. That’s moderate-strong energy, but the wind is a moderate cross-off. Could be a solid session for experienced crew, but for beginners, 2ft is going to be too much.

Overall, if you’re picking one day, make it Saturday the 29th morning for the glassy conditions and long-period swell. Wednesday the 19th morning is your best bet for size. The rest is mostly small or marginal – a bit of a waiting game, but nothing stays flat forever.

Rusty.

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