The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for The Patch.

Right off the bat, we’ve got some waves on offer, but the first few days are pretty average. The swell is around, but the wind is a bit messy, and the quality is just not there. Wednesday the 15th kicks off with a 5ft swell from the WNW, but the wind is cross-off and the energy is moderate (432). It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about. The size bumps up to 7ft in the afternoon, but the wind freshens to 16 mph, making it a bit of a battle. Thursday and Friday keep that range, with 6ft to 7ft swells, but the wind stays on the stronger side, and the period is short at 8 seconds. That’s windswell, not groundswell, so the waves will be a bit crumbly and weak.

By Saturday the 18th, the size drops off hard. The swell direction swings to the SW, and while the period jumps to 17 seconds – that’s proper groundswell – the height is only 2ft. The energy is moderate (515), but you’re looking at tiny, slow waves. This low-energy, long-period pattern hangs around through the 20th, with the swell staying under 3ft and the period between 14 and 17 seconds. The winds are mostly light and cross to cross-off, which is clean, but the lack of size means only the most patient longboarders will be getting wet.

Now, here’s a glimmer. Tuesday the 21st morning shows a little spike in quality, with a 3ft swell from the SW, period of 14 seconds, and light cross-off winds. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” It’s small, but it’s clean. The energy is still moderate (305). Don’t get too excited though.

The real standout? It’s a long way out, but Tuesday the 28th is looking like the best of the bunch. The morning brings a 4ft SW swell with a period of 18 seconds – that’s quality groundswell. The wind is cross-off from the WNW at 9 mph, which will keep the surface glassy. The energy is strong (1006), and the wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the one to circle on the calendar. The swell direction is SW, matching the optimum for this exposed break. Later in the afternoon, the wind picks up to 16 mph, but the morning window is pure gold.

Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th keep that 4ft to 3ft SW swell, with periods around 16 seconds, and light winds. Decent, but not as clean or as powerful as the 28th.

Overall, the first week is a write-off for anything memorable. Small, short-period, and average wind. The second week is where the tide turns, with that long-period SW groundswell arriving. The 28th is the clear winner, but get there early morning for the best conditions.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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