The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the patch for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we've got a bit of a slow start. Wednesday the 15th is showing some waist-high to maybe chest-high swell, around 5ft to 6ft, coming from the WNW. The water’s sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than you’d normally expect for this time of year – not a bad thing. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, so the surface will be clean, but the energy is pretty moderate (463-541) and the period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s a bit fat and weak. Honestly, this is marginal at best, not really worth getting excited about. The Patch is a beginner-friendly spot, and this is pretty much beginner-level surf.

Thursday the 16th sees similar conditions, just a bit more size. The swell bumps up to 6ft in the morning, 7ft in the afternoon, still that short-period WNW energy. The wind stays cross-off, so it’s clean, but the wave quality is still nothing to write home about. The energy is picking up a bit, hitting 849 by the afternoon, but it’s still a messy, short-period slope. For a beginner spot, this is starting to get a bit too much push.

Friday the 17th is a bit of a mixed bag. The morning sees a jump in energy to 1169, with a 7ft swell from the WNW. The wind shifts to a cross-shore, which puts a bit of a chop on the face. The afternoon drops back down to a cleaner 5ft, but the best window is probably the morning if you don't mind the bumpy surface. The Patch is fairly consistent, so there's always something to ride, but it's not likely to be epic.

From Saturday the 18th all the way through to the end of the month, we're looking at a serious drop-off. The swell goes tiny, hanging around 2ft to 4ft, with a mix of very long-period SW groundswell (15-24 seconds) and short-period WNW windswell. The long-period stuff is a beautiful thing for a reef or point, but at a beach break like The Patch, it'll stand up tall and close out, or just be a lot of water movement with no real shape. The wind is mostly light and cross-shore, which is nice, but there’s just no power. The combined energy stays moderate (333-1538), but the wave heights are too small to do anything with for a few days.

The best bet in this whole window is a *potential* one. Saturday the 25th of July and Sunday the 26th of July show a rise in energy (1538 and 1023) with a 4ft to 5ft SSW groundswell. The period is a solid 13-15 seconds, and the wind is light and cross-shore in the mornings. This is the only time we see a "very good surf conditions" note, on the morning of Monday the 27th, with a 3ft clean SW swell. But honestly, the swell height is just too small to make a real day of it for most surfers. The long-period groundswell will be offering some long, clean lines, but you’ll be hunting for the set waves.

So, to put it straight: The first week is a washout of short-period, average-sized junk. The second week is a long, slow grind of tiny, long-period groundswell that’s more interesting for the features than the ride. There’s no standout day in this 16-day window. The Patch rarely gets a proper pumping swell, and this forecast is a classic example of hoping for more and getting a lot of nothing. The few bigger days on the 15th and 16th are too short-period and messy to be a real standout. The long-period stuff on the 24th, 25th, and 26th is the closest we get to “interesting,” but it's tiny. If you’re a beginner, the Wednesday morning of the 15th is your best chance for a clean, soft wave, but don't expect much.

Rusty.

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