The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, checking the charts for our little corner of the coast.

First off, the water is way warmer than usual for this time of year, clocking in at about 62°, which is a solid 4° warmer than average. You’ll feel that difference straight away.

Let’s be straight with you. We’re in for a pretty quiet run overall, with only small windows of surfable waves. The first few days are a mixed bag. Thursday afternoon the 10th of September sees a small 3 ft SW groundswell, with a very long 17 second period. The wave energy is only moderate (676), and while the wind is cross-off, it’s a bit of a struggle to get excited about marginal conditions.

Friday the 11th is much of the same, with similar 3 ft to 3 ft SW groundswell. The morning has light cross-shore winds, not ideal. The afternoon is cleaner with that cross-off breeze, and moderate wave energy (572 to 529). It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about.

Saturday the 12th is a write-off. The morning has 2 ft SW swell and the afternoon jumps to 7 ft of short-period, weak WNW windswell with a pathetic 7 second period. The wave energy is still only moderate (591) but with a fresh breeze on it, the quality is poor. The whole day is a “marginal” call. Not worth paddling out.

Sunday the 13th offers a ray of hope but it’s fleeting. The morning has 2 ft SW groundswell with a 13 second period and light cross-off winds. The combined energy is low (244). It’s clean but small. The afternoon turns ugly with 5 ft of short-period, sloppy windswell and 19 mph winds. That’s a pass.

The best, and I mean the absolute best window, is the morning of Tuesday the 15th of September. It’s the only real standout in the whole 16-day run. We get a glassy 5 ft WNW swell, with light 3 mph winds directly from the south-southwest. The wave energy is moderate (422), the conditions are glassy, and the forecast is "good." That combo is as good as it gets in this stretch. Swell direction is a perfect match for The Patch, too, with the optimum being SW.

After that Tuesday morning, it’s a slow, drawn-out fade. The rest of the week and into the next is mostly 2 ft to 3 ft of long-period SW groundswell, with some clean windows of cross-off wind but not enough energy to really get going.

If you’re looking for something really promising way out, check Friday the 25th of September. There’s a tiny 1 ft SW groundswell with a very, very long 22 second period. The wave energy is moderate (382) and the morning looks clean. It’s a long-range promise for the patient surfer, but don’t hold your breath.

So there you have it. Get out there on Tuesday morning the 15th. That’s your shot for the whole run.

Rusty.

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