The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, looking at what's on the cards for our local patch.

The Patch is the only game in town, and it's a stretch of pretty small, marginal surf for the first week or so. The water's a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 59°, which is a nice little bonus. The waves are there, but they're tiny – think waist-high at best, around 2ft to 3ft, mostly from the SW. The wind is a persistent cross-shore, which keeps it from being totally clean. The combined energy is moderate, sitting in the 400-600 range (moderate wave energy), and the periods are around 13-18 seconds, suggesting a bit of groundswell that will offer some shape but longer waits between sets.

The real standout here is not until Saturday, July 25th, and then again into the following week. On the morning of Saturday the 25th, the swell picks up a touch to 3ft from the SW, but the wind goes clean, light cross-off from the WNW. The energy jumps to 1183 (strong wave energy), which is the best we'll see in the first week. The conditions are called excellent for experienced surfers, which is a big call.

Monday, July 27th morning is also a beauty. The swell is 3ft, but the wind is nearly glassy, just a light cross-off, and the energy is 989 (strong). It'll be clean and offering some fun little shoulders.

Then, the real power shows up. On Tuesday, July 28th morning, the swell holds at 4ft from the SW, with a glassy 5 km/h cross-wind. The combined energy hits 1480 (strong to very strong wave energy). That’s the biggest, cleanest swell of the whole run, and it's perfect for a spot like The Patch. The crowds are listed as "sometimes" here, so you might find a few heads out, but with that glassy morning, it'll be worth it.

Into the second week, things get more interesting. On Wednesday, July 29th morning, expect a 7ft swell, but it's short-period (8 seconds) and from the NW. That's a lot of energy (1565), but that short period at a beach break means it'll be a bit of a washing machine. That's expert territory, possibly more interesting for kite surfing than a relaxing paddle session. The cleanest windows in the second week look like Thursday, July 30th afternoon, and Friday, July 31st morning, with 3ft to 4ft SSW swell and clean, cross-off winds. The energy is still strong in the 800-900 range.

For the very end of the run, into August 1st and 2nd, the swell turns a bit raw again. The Saturday morning of August 1st looks best with a 4ft SSW swell and light, clean wind. The energy is moderate (549). After that, the swell jumps to 7ft on Sunday, August 2nd, but it's back to a short-period, choppy mess from the WNW.

So, to boil it down: don't bother with the first week unless you're desperate for a knee-high paddle. The standouts are Saturday, July 25th morning (3ft, SW, clean, strong energy) and the personal best of the whole forecast: Tuesday, July 28th morning (4ft, SW, glassy, very strong energy). That's the one to circle on the calendar. The second week also has clean windows on July 30th afternoon and July 31st morning, but the Tuesday is the absolute peak.

Rusty.

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