The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s talk about what’s coming up for The Patch. This one’s a bit of a slow burner, but there’s a couple of windows if you’re patient.

Right now, the first few days are a bit of a write-off. Monday and Tuesday are looking pretty marginal with small, messy swell and crummy wind. You’re looking at tiny waves in the 2ft to 3ft range, and the wind is all over the shop – cross-onshore and cross-shore. Not worth paddling out for. The combined energy is weak, sitting around 491 to 703 (weak to moderate), so honestly, you’re better off doing something else until Wednesday.

The first real standout comes Wednesday morning, July 8th. The Patch finally cleans up nicely with a light cross-offshore breeze from the WNW. We’ve got a clean 3ft of long-period SW groundswell, pushing 18 seconds. That’s some proper energy, and the combined energy reading jumps to 1306 (strong). For a beginner-friendly spot like this, that longer period will mean better shaped, more powerful waves with longer lulls between sets – perfect for picking them off. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Crowds are possible, so expect a few others with the same idea.

Thursday morning, July 9th, sees a jump in size but the period drops right off to 9 seconds. We’re looking at 8ft of NW windswell. That’s a big step up, and combined energy hits 2018 (very strong). This is getting into expert territory; that’s a lot of power for a beach break, and it might be a bit much for the beginners. The wind is clean, but the short period means it’ll be a bit lumpy and close together.

After that, through the second week, we settle into a long run of solid 5ft to 7ft WNW swell, but the period hangs around that 8 to 9 second mark. The wind stays mostly cross-offshore, keeping things clean. The energy levels are moderate to strong, but nothing else really screams “standout” until the very end.

The best of the whole outlook, and what I’m really keeping an eye on, is the morning of Friday, July 17th. We’ve got a WSW wind at just 5 km/h, making it completely glassy. The swell is a solid 7ft from the WNW with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is a beefy 1597 (strong). That’s excellent surf for experienced surfers. Clean, powerful, and with that glassy surface, it’s going to be a session to remember. Just be aware that at that size, it’s for the experienced crew only.

So to wrap it up: the first few days are a hard pass. The genuine standout is Wednesday morning, July 8th for the fun, clean long-period waves. Then the absolute best of the whole 16 days looks like that glassy Friday morning, July 17th for the experienced surfers. Everything else in between is decent, clean, and surfable, but those two windows are the ones to circle on the calendar.

Stay frothy,
Rusty.

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