
Surf Forecasts:
The Patch surf forecast from 17 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 8s period, WNW swell with 627 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 8s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:
The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 18s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 19s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 2.2m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 11PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 11PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next 16 days at The Patch are a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a couple of real gems hiding in there if you’re patient. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might get away with a thinner wetsuit.
We’ve got a slow start. Thursday the 16th kicks off with a WNW swell of 7ft, but it’s a short-period 8 seconds and banging in with a 19 mph cross-offshore wind. The combined energy is moderate (819), and while it’s clean, that swell size is too big for beginners and the wind is a bit on the strong side. It’s a so-so start.
Friday the 17th drops down to 5ft, still short-period 8 seconds, but the wind is cross-shore and light in the morning, creating a little chop. Afternoon picks up a cleaner cross-off with 5ft and 16 mph wind. Still not a standout, but surfable.
Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th see the swell drop right off to tiny 2ft. The periods jump to 17-18 seconds, which is proper groundswell, but there’s just not enough height to do anything with it. The energy is moderate (545-649), but these are wave-size days, not wave-riding days. Monday the 20th is similar – tiny and choppy.
Now, here’s the first real highlight. Tuesday the 21st morning. The wind goes completely glassy (0 mph), and we get a 4ft SSW swell at 13 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (516), but the key is the glassy conditions. That’s a special window, and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” The Patches can get crowded sometimes, so get in early.
After that, the swell drops back to 2ft for the rest of the week. Wednesday the 22nd through Friday the 24th are small, though the period stays long (14-24 seconds), keeping the energy moderate. The winds are cross-offshore and clean, but the waves are just too small to get excited about.
Now, hold onto your board. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are the real standouts. The swell holds at 3-3ft from the SW, but the period is a very long 19-21 seconds. The combined energy jumps to strong (1508-1665) – that’s a lot of power for a waist-high wave. The wind is a gentle 9-16 mph cross-offshore, keeping it clean. The forecast for Sunday the 26th morning says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s the one to circle.
Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th keep the same vibe: 3-4ft SW swell, 18 seconds, clean cross-off winds, and combined energy in the strong range (998-1733). Tuesday the 28th morning is also flagged as “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” Consistent, clean, and punchy.
The last few days, Wednesday the 29th to Friday the 31st, fade out. The swell stays around 3ft, but the period drops to 14-16 seconds, and the wind turns onshore or cross-onshore, bringing chop. The energy drops back to moderate. Friday the 31st afternoon is called “poor surf conditions,” so that’s your cue to hang it up.
Best bet: get out for Tuesday the 21st morning for the glassy magic, and then lock in Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th for the long-period, powerful, clean waves. The Patch is a fairly consistent spot, so there’s always a chance the forecasts improve, but these are your windows.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Thu afternoon, light winds from the WSW by Sun morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Warm (max 25°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Thu 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | SW 17 | W 16 | W 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 11 | SW 16 | SW 14 | S 16 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
566 | 521 | 298 | 303 | 208 | 243 | 258 | 174 | 167 | 297 | 257 | 203 | 299 | 317 | 440 | 606 | 302 | 245 | 194 | 181 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:40PM1.15m | 1:34AM1.34m | 3:20PM1.18m | 2:29AM1.20m | 3:59PM1.20m | 3:28AM1.05m | 4:38PM1.22m | 4:36AM0.91m | 5:18PM1.23m | 6:02AM0.80m | 6:00PM1.23m | 7:47AM0.77m | 6:45PM1.23m | |||||||
Low Tide | 8:22PM0.43m | 9:00AM-0.15m | 9:22PM0.39m | 9:42AM-0.03m | 10:26PM0.35m | 10:24AM0.11m | 11:33PM0.30m | 11:09AM0.24m | 00:42AM0.24m | 11:57AM0.37m | 1:50AM0.17m | 12:54PM0.49m | 2:52AM0.11m | |||||||
— | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | |
8:31 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:28 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 15 |
Feels °C | 11 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | W 17 | W 17 | W 16 | WNW 7 | W 16 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 16 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 11 | SSW 9 | SSW 8 | SW 14 |
124 | 110 | 148 | 214 | 188 | 121 | 243 | 101 | 153 | 134 | 111 | 90 | 299 | 317 | 440 | 606 | 302 | 197 | 109 | 158 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 19 | W 18 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 14 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | SW 16 | S 13 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | NW 9 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 14 | S 16 |
116 | 162 | 130 | 54 | 72 | 181 | 258 | 174 | 165 | 297 | 257 | 171 | 90 | 61 | 46 | 37 | 174 | 245 | 194 | 181 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SW 14 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 13 | NW 10 | W 15 | W 15 | S 14 | SW 16 | S 12 | SW 16 | W 13 | W 13 | NW 8 | NW 8 | WNW 12 | S 7 |
13 | 13 | 54 | 54 | 48 | 243 | 44 | 27 | 167 | 109 | 153 | 203 | 151 | 161 | 30 | 30 | 17 | 16 | 27 | 28 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | — | WNW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 4 | — | WNW 3 | WNW 6 |
566 | 521 | 298 | 303 | 208 | — | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | — | 8 | 97 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 120 | 22 | 121 | 121 | 0 | 22 | 121 | 0 | 22 | 121 | 22 | 22 | 195 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 22 | 31 | 122 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










