The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let's have a look at what The Patch has in store for us.

Honestly, for the next couple of weeks, we’re looking at a real mixed bag. There’s a bit of a slow start, and while there is some decent energy building up mid-period, the quality is going to be up and down. The standout window looks to be from Wednesday the 8th through to Friday the 10th, with some proper swell and clean conditions. But don't get too carried away with the long-range stuff, it’s still a way off.

Right now, on Friday the 3rd, it’s a quiet one. We’ve got a tiny 4ft swell from the WNW, but it’s a short-period 8 second windswell with an onshore wind. The combined energy is weak at 292, and the surf report is calling it poor. Saturday and Sunday look like more of the same – small and messy, not worth your time unless you’re desperate for a paddle.

We finally start to see some promise on Monday morning the 6th. Swell builds to 3ft from the SW with a much better 16-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 679, and while it’s cross-shore, it’s still a bit choppy. It’s marginal, but it’s a step in the right direction.

Now, Tuesday the 7th is still marginal, but you can feel something brewing. The morning shows light cross-shore winds and a 19-second period 2ft SW swell. The energy is up to 671. By the afternoon, the wind picks up to a cross-offshore 16 mph from the WNW, tidying things up a bit, but the swell is still small.

Here’s where it gets good. Wednesday morning, the 8th of July, is a real standout. We’ve got 3ft of SW swell at 18 seconds, with light offshore winds from the WNW. The combined energy is a solid 774, and the conditions are described as *very good*. It’s clean, it’s got push, and the offshore wind will make for some lovely lines. This is the one to circle on your calendar. The patch will be offering up clean, lined-up waves for the experienced crew.

Thursday the 9th sees the swell really kick in. The morning brings a punchy 6ft from the WNW, but the period drops to 8 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a strong 1306, and with clean cross-offshore winds, it’s excellent for experienced surfers. However, 6ft with that short period will be a bit of a handful, definitely not for beginners. By Friday the 10th, we’ve got the biggest swell of the period: 8ft from the NW at 9 seconds. Combined energy is a massive 1570, and the morning winds are light and offshore from the west. This is big and powerful – expert territory only. It’s going to be a heavy, thumping wave at The Patch.

After that peak, things taper off quickly. Saturday the 11th is a write-off with onshore winds and choppy conditions. Sunday the 12th has a bit of a breeze, but the swell is all over the place, with a 6ft, 7-second windswell in the afternoon that will be a mess.

From Monday the 13th onwards, we go into a quieter, more consistent but small pattern. We’re looking at 2ft to 4ft swells with mostly cross-offshore winds, but the energy is low and the surf will be underwhelming. Nothing really stands out in that second week, it’s just small and clean, which might be fine for a longboard or a beginner session, but nothing to get excited about.

So, to wrap it up: your best bets are Wednesday morning the 8th for a clean, fun-sized SW groundswell with offshore winds, and Friday morning the 10th for the biggest, most powerful waves of the fortnight – but only if you know what you’re doing.

Rusty.

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