The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at The Patch over the next couple of weeks.

The first few days are pretty quiet. We’ve got some small surf, but the winds are going to mess with the quality. Not really worth paddling out for much until we get a bit more push and cleaner conditions.

Wednesday morning starts things off with a tiny 1.6ft SW swell. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, around 61.7°, and it’s glassy with no wind. It’s super clean but really small. The energy is weak (268), so you’d be on a longboard just rolling around.

Thursday and Friday stay in that small range, around 2.5ft to 3ft from the SW. Energy builds a little, up to 676 on Thursday afternoon, but the winds are cross or cross-off, so it’s only just rideable. Nothing to get excited about yet.

Then Saturday rolls in with a bigger push. Swell jumps to 5.2ft in the morning and 6.6ft in the afternoon, but it’s coming from the WNW with a short, crumbly period of 6-7 seconds. This makes it messy and a bit fat. It’s probably too big and junky for the beginners seeing as it’s over 5ft, and with that period, it’s not going to be pretty. The energy is moderate (569), so there’s power, but the shape won’t be there.

Sunday morning is the first real standout. The swell drops to 5.2ft from the NW but still has a short period. However, the wind is light and cross-off, so it’ll be cleaner than Saturday. The energy is moderate (461). This is your best bet for the weekend, but the short period will still have it closing out a bit at the beach.

After that, we go through a bit of a quiet spell. Monday through Wednesday of the next week sees waves in the 3.6ft to 4.9ft range from the WNW, but the periods are short (6-8 seconds) and the winds are onshore or cross-onshore in the mornings. Afternoons are cleaner with cross-off breezes, but the surf is unremarkable.

The mid-week starts to drop right off. Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th, we’re looking at tiny 1.3ft to 2ft swells from the SW. The energy drops away, so it’s more of a swim than a surf.

Now, about a week out, things start to look a little more promising. Saturday the 19th shows a 4.3ft WNW swell, but the period is still short. It’s a marginal call. The real gem comes on Sunday the 20th. It’s only 2ft from the SW, but the period stretches out to 18-19 seconds. This is proper long-period groundswell. And the morning is glassy, absolutely dead flat wind. This is the standout of the whole run. The energy is moderate (377-461), but the long period means it’ll have real push and shape. This is a point break or reef kind of day. The Patch is fairly consistent, so this could be the best clean session of the fortnight.

The following week starts off okay, with some 2.3ft to 2.6ft SW swells on Monday and Tuesday, but the winds are a bit onshore or cross. Then by Wednesday and Thursday, the wind really gets up—22 to 25 mph cross-off. The swell is small (2ft), and the conditions will be blown out. It's not looking like a fun paddle.

So, the long and short of it: the first week is small and junky. The standout is that Sunday the 20th morning with the glassy, long-period SW swell. The earlier weekend offers size but with bad shape. The second week is just a waiting game for that clean pulse.

Alright, stay stoked.

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