The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let's get straight into it: The Patch is in for a bit of a flat spell to start, and the next couple of weeks are mostly about small, clean condition rather than any real size. The early part of the run is particularly lean.

The first window that’s any good is later this week. Tuesday morning (the 25th) has a clean 2ft southwest swell, 16-second period, with an energy reading of 301. The wind is cross-off, leaving the surface glassy. It’s tiny, but it’s the best of a poor bunch to open with.

Then it goes a bit flat and mixed. Thursday afternoon throws up a 6ft pulse from the WNW, but it’s got a junky 6-second period and a poor quality rating. That’s basically slop – not the kind of thing you paddle out for. Friday morning (the 28th) reverts to a cleaner 2ft southwest swell with a 17-second period and an energy reading of 454. It’s surfable, but nothing to get excited about.

The weekend offers the first real highlight. Saturday morning (the 29th) sees 3ft of southwest swell at 18 seconds, and the energy jumps to 793. The wind is still offshore-ish, and this is the most powerful, cleanest swell of the first week. This is my pick for the best surf of the run until we get further out. Expect some company, as it’s a break that can get busy. The long period should help it shape up nicely at this exposed spot.

Sunday (the 30th) holds similar size (3ft, 16-second period) but a bit less energy at 685. Still clean, but a touch less push.

Then comes a real lull. The start of September is weak, with swells dropping to 2-2ft and periods shrinking. Energy readings fall under 200, and conditions are described as very ordinary. For several days, there’s really not much to ride.

The pattern shifts around Thursday the 3rd, with a long-period 2ft southwest swell (19 seconds), but the wind goes cross and the energy is still modest (362). The big jump happens on Friday the 4th. We get 3ft of southwest swell at 18 seconds and the energy rockets to 847 – the strongest reading of the whole fortnight. The only downside is a light cross-onshore breeze in the morning. But that energy is significant. This is the standout of the period, but it’s more than a week away, so treat it as a promising but not guaranteed call.

The following weekend (the 5th and 6th) holds 3ft of southwest swell, periods around 15-16 seconds, and energy in the 400-550 range. Good, clean, but not the same punch as that Friday.

The final few days turn into a bit of a mess. Monday the 7th sees a jump to 5ft to 6ft, but the period crashes to 7 seconds and it’s from the WNW. That’s a short-period wind swell, and at that size, it’s only for experts. The quality is poor, and with that kind of bumpy, short-period energy, it’s looking more like a kite-surf day than a paddle-surf day. It stays lumpy into the 9th with a 4ft+ WNW at 8 seconds.

So my call is: if you want clean, rideable waves, get out Saturday the 29th. If you can wait, circle Friday the 4th of September – that’s the one with the real energy and the best potential for a proper session. The water is about normal for this time of year, so grab your usual suit.

Take it easy,
Rusty

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