The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for The Patch over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, this is a bit of a slow burner. The Patch is a fairly consistent, exposed beginner-friendly spot, but it’s going to take a while for things to really get interesting. The early part of the outlook is all about small, marginal wave energy, with the combined energy levels sitting in the moderate range (around 350 to 400). Water temp is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a small win if you’re getting in the water.

Saturday afternoon (11 July) kicks off with a tiny 2ft SW swell, but with a 15-second period, that’s proper groundswell. The wind is cross-off from the WNW, keeping it clean, but the wave comment says "marginal". It’s small, but it’s rideable for a beginner. Sunday morning (12 July) is a bit of a letdown with cross-on wind, making things messy. Stick to the afternoon session that day.

Monday (13 July) morning is where we start to see a little pulse: 4ft swell from the WNW, period is short at 8 seconds, so it’s a windswell, but the light cross-off breeze is making it clean. The combined energy bumps up a bit, but nothing to write home about. Tuesday (14 July) is similar, maybe a bit more energy, but the wind turns cross-shore, so expect some slight chop.

The best bet in the first week is Wednesday (15 July) morning. We’ve got 5ft of WNW swell, still short period, but the light offshore wind from the west is making it clean. The combined energy is up to 433, and the wave comment says "expect good surf conditions". This is your window for a solid, fun session. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and rideable.

Thursday (16 July) gets bigger—6ft in the morning, hitting 8ft by the afternoon. That afternoon session is borderline for experts only, with a fresh breeze creating some chop. The combined energy jumps to 1075, which is strong, but the short period means it’s not going to be the prettiest. Friday (17 July) drops back to 5ft, still clean with cross-off wind, but the energy is still moderate.

Now, we hit a bit of a lull from Saturday (18 July) through to mid-week. The swell drops right back to 2ft to 2ft, and the energy stays moderate. The wind is mostly cross-off, keeping it clean, but the wave comment says "marginal" for most of these sessions. It’s not going to be worth paddling out unless you’re desperate for a float.

The real standout comes in the second week, and it’s worth the wait. Saturday morning, 25 July, is an absolute cracker. We’ve got 3ft of long-period groundswell from the SW, with a period of 21 seconds. That’s very long period, which means it’s going to be powerful and lined up, but it can be a bit tricky at a beach break—it might break a bit too straight. The combined energy is 1123, which is strong, and the wind is light and offshore from the WNW. The wave comment says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers". This is the best on offer, no question.

Sunday morning, 26 July, is almost as good. 4ft from the SW, 20-second period, combined energy 1166, and light offshore wind. Again, excellent conditions for experienced surfers. If you’re a beginner, the size is fine, but the long period and power might be a bit much. For anyone who knows what they’re doing, this is the weekend to be in the water.

Crowds at The Patch are "sometimes", so expect a few locals out, but it won’t be a circus. The swell direction matches the optimum for the break, which is SW, so that’s a good sign. The second week is a bit of a gamble, but these two morning sessions look like the real deal. Just keep an eye on the wind, because long-range forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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