The Patch Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.90° N 122.70° W

The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 pm 26 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Patch sea temperature is
15.7° C
2.0° 

The Patch surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Patch surf forecast from 27 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 29 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 8s period, NW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 2 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,175 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 28 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 17s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:

The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 12s. Another secondary swell of 1.6m and 7s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8AM (Tue 28th Jul)3ft (0.9m) 17s
Best Surf 8AM (Wed 29th Jul)7ft (2.1m) 8s
Most Powerful 5AM (Sun 2nd Aug)8ft (2.5m) 9s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s shaping up for The Patch over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a solid run of clean, rideable waves kicking off the period. The first few days are looking pretty good, but don’t get too excited about the weekend after that – things get dicey for a while. The standout window is definitely the middle of next week.

We start Monday the 27th of July with a long-period SW groundswell at about 3ft, but the energy is already building. Wind is cross-offshore from the WNW, so the surface is clean. The combined swell energy is already moderate at 756. Tuesday the 28th keeps the same vibe: 4ft of SW swell with that long 18-second period, cross-off wind, and energy climbing to 939. Both mornings are rideable, but the real magic happens Wednesday the 29th of July. The morning has a clean 3ft SW swell with a 16-second period, cross-off wind, and the combined energy jumps to 1220 – that’s strong wave energy. The report flags it as excellent for experienced surfers. That Wednesday morning is the absolute best on offer in this whole outlook. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing wild.

Thursday the 30th sees a shift. The morning drops to 3ft from the SSW with a 16-second period, still clean and moderate energy (893). But the afternoon throws in a 6ft WNW windswell with a short, punchy 8-second period. That’s a different beast – more power but less shape. Friday the 31st is a bit smaller again, 3ft from the SSW with a 14-second period, light cross-shore wind, and energy dropping to 505. It’s clean but not as exciting.

Now, Saturday the 1st of August brings a bit of a pulse. The morning has a 6ft NW windswell at 8 seconds, with light cross-shore wind and energy at 1098 – that’s strong. The afternoon drops to 6ft but the wind picks up. Sunday the 2nd of August has the biggest raw numbers: an 8ft NW swell at 9 seconds in the morning, with energy hitting 1955 – that’s very strong wave energy. But the wind is light cross-shore. At 8ft, this is only for experts. The period is short, so it’ll be a bit lumpy and less organized.

Then we hit a rough patch. From Monday the 3rd of August through to Monday the 10th of August, the quality plummets. The wind turns onshore or cross-onshore for most of that stretch, and the reports are flagging poor to marginal conditions. There are a few days with height around 5ft to 6ft, but the wind is from the south or southwest, ruining the surface. Tuesday the 4th and Friday the 7th of August are particularly poor. After that, waves drop right off to 2ft – 2ft with onshore wind, making it virtually unsurfable. That’s a good week or so of very slim pickings from the 3rd through to the 11th.

The only flicker of light in that second week is Thursday the 6th of August. The morning has 7ft from the WNW at 10 seconds, with light cross-onshore wind and energy at 1019. The afternoon is 7ft at 11 seconds with cross-shore wind and energy at 1183. It’s marginal, but if you’re desperate, it’s the cleanest of that ugly bunch. Still, the wind is never fully offshore, so it’s not a standout.

The Patch breaks on an exposed, SW-facing beach. The long-period swells (16-18 seconds) we see early on are classy groundswell, but at a beach break they can be a bit straight and tricky. The Wednesday morning on the 29th of July is the one to circle – that’s the pick of the whole run. For the rest, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty, signing off.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Mon night, calm by Wed morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Fri afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
2
3
2
1
3
2
2
3
3
2
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
SW
18
1
SW
18
1.1
SW
19
0.8
SW
19
1.1
SW
18
1.1
SW
18
1
SW
17
1
SW
16
2.1
WNW
8
2.2
WNW
8
0.9
SSW
16
1.9
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
0.9
SSW
14
0.9
SSW
14
1.7
WNW
8
1.9
NW
8
1.8
WNW
8
2.2
WNW
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
442
616
791
427
679
781
567
527
521
675
436
464
412
293
285
327
485
422
777
Wind (km/h)
20
NW
15
WNW
25
WNW
25
WNW
15
NW
25
WNW
20
NW
15
WNW
25
WNW
20
WNW
15
WNW
25
WNW
10
WNW
10
W
20
WNW
10
WNW
5
W
20
WNW
10
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
9:52PM1.29m
12:29PM0.98m
10:34PM1.31m
12:57PM0.99m
11:13PM1.31m
1:23PM1.01m
11:52PM1.30m
1:48PM1.04m
00:30AM1.27m
2:13PM1.08m
1:11AM1.21m
2:40PM1.11m
1:55AM1.13m
Low Tide
5:53AM-0.06m
5:29PM0.60m
6:26AM-0.08m
6:07PM0.58m
6:57AM-0.09m
6:43PM0.55m
7:27AM-0.08m
7:20PM0.52m
7:57AM-0.05m
8:00PM0.48m
8:27AM-0.01m
8:44PM0.43m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:09
6:09
6:11
6:11
6:11
6:13
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:24
8:23
8:22
8:22
8:21
8:20
8:19
 mm
Temp °C
14
16
17
15
18
18
15
17
18
15
17
17
14
18
19
14
18
19
15
Feels °C
10
14
14
10
16
14
10
15
15
11
15
14
10
17
17
11
17
17
12
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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