
Surf Forecasts:
The Patch surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 8s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 8s period, WNW swell with 723 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 15 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 7s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:
The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 7s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 18s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 13s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 2.4m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 8PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8AM (Wed 15th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 7s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.4m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for The Patch.
Right off the bat, we’ve got some waves on offer, but the first few days are pretty average. The swell is around, but the wind is a bit messy, and the quality is just not there. Wednesday the 15th kicks off with a 5ft swell from the WNW, but the wind is cross-off and the energy is moderate (432). It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about. The size bumps up to 7ft in the afternoon, but the wind freshens to 16 mph, making it a bit of a battle. Thursday and Friday keep that range, with 6ft to 7ft swells, but the wind stays on the stronger side, and the period is short at 8 seconds. That’s windswell, not groundswell, so the waves will be a bit crumbly and weak.
By Saturday the 18th, the size drops off hard. The swell direction swings to the SW, and while the period jumps to 17 seconds – that’s proper groundswell – the height is only 2ft. The energy is moderate (515), but you’re looking at tiny, slow waves. This low-energy, long-period pattern hangs around through the 20th, with the swell staying under 3ft and the period between 14 and 17 seconds. The winds are mostly light and cross to cross-off, which is clean, but the lack of size means only the most patient longboarders will be getting wet.
Now, here’s a glimmer. Tuesday the 21st morning shows a little spike in quality, with a 3ft swell from the SW, period of 14 seconds, and light cross-off winds. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” It’s small, but it’s clean. The energy is still moderate (305). Don’t get too excited though.
The real standout? It’s a long way out, but Tuesday the 28th is looking like the best of the bunch. The morning brings a 4ft SW swell with a period of 18 seconds – that’s quality groundswell. The wind is cross-off from the WNW at 9 mph, which will keep the surface glassy. The energy is strong (1006), and the wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the one to circle on the calendar. The swell direction is SW, matching the optimum for this exposed break. Later in the afternoon, the wind picks up to 16 mph, but the morning window is pure gold.
Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th keep that 4ft to 3ft SW swell, with periods around 16 seconds, and light winds. Decent, but not as clean or as powerful as the 28th.
Overall, the first week is a write-off for anything memorable. Small, short-period, and average wind. The second week is where the tide turns, with that long-period SW groundswell arriving. The 28th is the clear winner, but get there early morning for the best conditions.
This is Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue night, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tue 21 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | W 16 | SW 17 | W 16 | W 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
215 | 232 | 459 | 555 | 389 | 581 | 521 | 458 | 237 | 188 | 243 | 258 | 174 | 203 | 297 | 267 | 242 | 245 | 299 | 221 | 174 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:49PM1.51m | 2:00PM1.11m | 00:42AM1.44m | 2:40PM1.15m | 1:34AM1.34m | 3:20PM1.18m | 2:29AM1.20m | 3:59PM1.20m | 3:28AM1.05m | 4:38PM1.22m | 4:36AM0.91m | 5:18PM1.23m | 6:02AM0.80m | 6:00PM1.23m | |||||||
Low Tide | 7:33AM-0.30m | 7:25PM0.47m | 8:17AM-0.24m | 8:22PM0.43m | 9:00AM-0.15m | 9:22PM0.39m | 9:42AM-0.03m | 10:26PM0.35m | 10:24AM0.11m | 11:33PM0.30m | 11:09AM0.24m | 00:42AM0.24m | 11:57AM0.37m | ||||||||
— | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:03 | — | |
8:32 | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:29 | — | — | 8:29 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 18 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 16 |
Feels °C | 14 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 12 | SSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WNW 8 | W 17 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | W 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 |
61 | 62 | 37 | 90 | 89 | 124 | 110 | 298 | 214 | 128 | 91 | 243 | 51 | 98 | 68 | 267 | 242 | 245 | 299 | 221 | 174 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | W 20 | W 19 | W 19 | W 18 | W 17 | SW 14 | W 16 | W 16 | SW 18 | W 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 | S 11 |
109 | 108 | 73 | 72 | 118 | 116 | 162 | 214 | 54 | 188 | 181 | 258 | 174 | 203 | 297 | 64 | 48 | 101 | 56 | 30 | 57 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 13 | W 13 | W 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 13 | WNW 10 | W 16 | W 15 | S 12 | S 11 | W 14 | NW 8 | W 13 | W 13 |
31 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 13 | 13 | 130 | 88 | 72 | 243 | 44 | 39 | 170 | 109 | 72 | 63 | 64 | 18 | 54 | 30 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | — | — | WNW 8 | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 4 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 |
215 | 232 | 459 | 555 | 389 | 581 | 521 | 458 | 237 | — | — | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | 62 | 9 | 27 | 61 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 22 | 120 | 22 | 121 | 120 | 22 | 121 | 121 | 0 | 22 | 121 | 0 | 22 | 121 | 0 | 22 | 54 | 22 | 0 | 120 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











