The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been watchin’ this patch of coast like a hawk. We’ve got a long window ahead, but it’s a slow burn, not a blowout. The first real surf worth paddling for hits this Friday morning, 17th July, with a solid 5 ft swell from the WNW, period around 8 seconds, and clean conditions thanks to a light cross-offshore breeze. The water’s sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The combined energy's moderate at 679. That Friday morning is the standout early on – clean, fair-sized, and with a beginner-friendly break like The Patch, it’s a good time for a learner to get out there.

The swell drops off quick after that. Friday afternoon stays around 5 ft but the wind picks up, and Saturday and Sunday are small, 2 ft to 2 ft, with periods that are huge (17 to 18 seconds) but the swell direction is mixed. Long-period groundswell like that can be a bit straight at a beach break, but the wind stays light or cross-off in the afternoons. Still, the energy is moderate (around 500 to 600), and the scores are low – not worth getting excited about.

Then Tuesday morning, 21st July, things perk up. The wind goes glassy – dead calm – and we get a 4 ft swell from the SSW, period 13 seconds. That’s a clean, glassy morning with moderate energy (578). That’s another small window of quality, but it’s short-lived. By Wednesday, the wind swings onshore from the south, and the swell gets messy and poor.

Thursday 23rd July sees a drop in swell to 2 ft, but the wind turns cross-off again, keeping things clean. The energy is weak (278), but it’s a decent small-wave session for a beginner. Then we hit a gap from Friday 24th through the weekend – the swell is tiny (2 ft to 3 ft) but with very long periods (21 to 24 seconds) and clean cross-off winds. The combined energy builds from 790 to over 1000, but the wave height is small. These are long-period groundswells that need a reef or point to shape up; at The Patch, a beach break, they’ll be fat and slow. Still, clean and small.

Now, the real standout is Sunday 26th July. The morning brings a 3 ft swell from the SW, period 19 seconds, with light cross-offshore wind from the west at 6 mph. The combined energy is strong at 1169, and the notes say “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s the one to circle on the calendar. The swell is small but the period is very long, so it’ll have plenty of push and shape for someone who knows how to read a groundswell. The wind is light, the water is clean.

After that, Monday 27th and Tuesday 28th July keep the same flavour: 3 ft to 4 ft from the SW, periods 18 seconds, with light cross winds and moderate to strong combined energy (1199 to 1417). The morning of Monday 27th has light cross-shore wind, not glassy, but still good. Nothing matches the 26th for quality though.

Late in the window, Wednesday 29th July sees the swell push up to 4 ft to 4 ft from the SW, but the wind goes onshore from the south, making it messy. Thursday 30th and Friday 31st bring a bigger groundswell from the NW – 8 ft to 7 ft – but the period is short (9 to 10 seconds) and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore. That’s too big for beginners and too messy for experts. The energy is strong (1940 on Thursday morning), but the quality is poor. It’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session.

The week of August 1st sees the swell drop back to 5 ft to 5 ft, still from the NW, with onshore or cross winds, and the energy falls off. Not much to chase there.

So, for the best on offer: Friday 17th July morning for a clean, beginner-friendly 5 ft left, and Sunday 26th July morning for the experienced surfer – that long-period, clean, strong-energy groundswell is the real gem. The Patch is fairly consistent, but it’s not a spot that lights up often. The gaps between the good days are a few days at a time, but the forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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