
Surf Forecasts:
The Patch surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 13 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 8s period, WNW swell with 909 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 11 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 7s period with WNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:
The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 7s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 2.5m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 11PM (Sat 11th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 7s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Mon 13th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for The Patch over the next couple of weeks.
Straight up, this is a bit of a slow burner. The Patch is a fairly consistent, exposed beginner-friendly spot, but it’s going to take a while for things to really get interesting. The early part of the outlook is all about small, marginal wave energy, with the combined energy levels sitting in the moderate range (around 350 to 400). Water temp is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a small win if you’re getting in the water.
Saturday afternoon (11 July) kicks off with a tiny 2ft SW swell, but with a 15-second period, that’s proper groundswell. The wind is cross-off from the WNW, keeping it clean, but the wave comment says "marginal". It’s small, but it’s rideable for a beginner. Sunday morning (12 July) is a bit of a letdown with cross-on wind, making things messy. Stick to the afternoon session that day.
Monday (13 July) morning is where we start to see a little pulse: 4ft swell from the WNW, period is short at 8 seconds, so it’s a windswell, but the light cross-off breeze is making it clean. The combined energy bumps up a bit, but nothing to write home about. Tuesday (14 July) is similar, maybe a bit more energy, but the wind turns cross-shore, so expect some slight chop.
The best bet in the first week is Wednesday (15 July) morning. We’ve got 5ft of WNW swell, still short period, but the light offshore wind from the west is making it clean. The combined energy is up to 433, and the wave comment says "expect good surf conditions". This is your window for a solid, fun session. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and rideable.
Thursday (16 July) gets bigger—6ft in the morning, hitting 8ft by the afternoon. That afternoon session is borderline for experts only, with a fresh breeze creating some chop. The combined energy jumps to 1075, which is strong, but the short period means it’s not going to be the prettiest. Friday (17 July) drops back to 5ft, still clean with cross-off wind, but the energy is still moderate.
Now, we hit a bit of a lull from Saturday (18 July) through to mid-week. The swell drops right back to 2ft to 2ft, and the energy stays moderate. The wind is mostly cross-off, keeping it clean, but the wave comment says "marginal" for most of these sessions. It’s not going to be worth paddling out unless you’re desperate for a float.
The real standout comes in the second week, and it’s worth the wait. Saturday morning, 25 July, is an absolute cracker. We’ve got 3ft of long-period groundswell from the SW, with a period of 21 seconds. That’s very long period, which means it’s going to be powerful and lined up, but it can be a bit tricky at a beach break—it might break a bit too straight. The combined energy is 1123, which is strong, and the wind is light and offshore from the WNW. The wave comment says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers". This is the best on offer, no question.
Sunday morning, 26 July, is almost as good. 4ft from the SW, 20-second period, combined energy 1166, and light offshore wind. Again, excellent conditions for experienced surfers. If you’re a beginner, the size is fine, but the long period and power might be a bit much. For anyone who knows what they’re doing, this is the weekend to be in the water.
Crowds at The Patch are "sometimes", so expect a few locals out, but it won’t be a circus. The swell direction matches the optimum for the break, which is SW, so that’s a good sign. The second week is a bit of a gamble, but these two morning sessions look like the real deal. Just keep an eye on the wind, because long-range forecasts can change.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Mon afternoon, min 12°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Tue night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sat 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WNW 7 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 17 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
220 | 208 | 206 | 208 | 331 | 255 | 237 | 294 | 220 | 199 | 214 | 232 | 353 | 579 | 443 | 857 | 583 | 353 | 262 | 192 | 192 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross |
High Tide | 9:06PM1.46m | 11:49AM0.97m | 10:02PM1.51m | 12:36PM1.03m | 10:56PM1.53m | 1:18PM1.07m | 11:49PM1.51m | 2:00PM1.11m | 00:42AM1.44m | 2:40PM1.15m | 1:34AM1.34m | 3:20PM1.18m | 2:29AM1.20m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:33PM0.56m | 5:09AM-0.25m | 4:34PM0.57m | 5:59AM-0.30m | 5:32PM0.55m | 6:47AM-0.32m | 6:29PM0.51m | 7:33AM-0.30m | 7:25PM0.47m | 8:17AM-0.24m | 8:22PM0.43m | 9:00AM-0.15m | 9:22PM0.39m | 9:42AM-0.03m | |||||||
— | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | |
8:34 | — | — | 8:34 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:30 | — | 8:30 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 16 |
Feels °C | 13 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 15 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 12 | WNW 7 | SSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 | W 19 | SW 15 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
220 | 208 | 192 | 202 | 331 | 255 | 118 | 116 | 106 | 73 | 214 | 62 | 37 | 90 | 89 | 116 | 141 | 353 | 262 | 192 | 192 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 18 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | W 14 | SW 19 | SW 19 | W 14 | SSW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | W 20 | W 19 | SW 16 | W 18 | W 17 | W 17 | W 16 | SW 17 |
6 | 181 | 206 | 208 | 162 | 120 | 15 | 96 | 58 | 37 | 61 | 108 | 74 | 72 | 118 | 89 | 162 | 148 | 214 | 185 | 190 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 20 | S 10 | W 18 | W 18 | W 16 | W 16 | WSW 19 | W 15 | W 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | W 13 | W 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | — | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 14 | W 16 |
7 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 21 | 37 | 39 | 35 | 50 | 109 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 13 | — | 130 | 74 | 73 | 181 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | — | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | — | — | — | — |
117 | — | — | — | — | — | 237 | 294 | 220 | 199 | — | 232 | 353 | 579 | 443 | 857 | 583 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 121 | 22 | 22 | 121 | 22 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 22 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 121 | 22 | 22 | 120 | 22 | 22 | 121 | 22 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











