The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The Patch is the only game in town for the next couple of weeks, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The water temperature is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

We start off this Wednesday morning with a bumpy 5ft swell out of the SSW, period around 9 seconds, and a brisk onshore wind. It’s not going to be pretty. The combined energy is moderate (556). That afternoon drops right down to a weak 2ft, but the wind goes cross-shore. It’s still pretty poor, to be honest.

Thursday and Friday see a cleaner picture. The swell drops to around 2-3ft from the SSW, but the wind turns cross-offshore from the WNW. The period stretches out nicely to 14 seconds, so the waves will have some shape and push. The energy is moderate (330-343). It’s small, but clean. Friday brings a very long-period 24-second pulse out of the SW. That’s proper groundswell energy, but only 2ft. At a beach break, long-period swells can run straight and be a bit wonky, but for a smaller wave, it’s something. The energy is still moderate (768).

Saturday the 25th through to Tuesday the 29th is a solid run. The swell holds around 3ft to 4ft from the SW, with that gorgeous 18-21 second period. The wind stays cross-offshore from the WNW, with morning sessions looking glassy under a moderate breeze. The energy builds nicely into the moderate-to-strong range (860-1106). Tuesday morning (28th July) looks like a standout with a 4ft SW swell, 18 second period, and light offshore winds, combined energy at a strong 1106. The waves will be clean, punchy, and have good spacing. Keep an eye on the crowds as they can show up sometimes.

Then Tuesday afternoon shifts: the wind picks up to 30 km/h from the WNW and the swell jumps to 8ft but with a short, weak 8-second period from the WNW. That’s a lot of raw, messy energy (1448), and it’s only for experts if you even paddle out. For most of us, it’s a bit of a washout. Wednesday the 29th morning settles back down to a clean 3ft, 16-second SW groundswell under a gentle offshore. That’s another good call.

The rest of the run into the first week of August gets patchy. We see the swell size come and go between 1ft and 6ft, but the period becomes a mix. Thursday the 30th has a 7ft NW swell with a short 8-second period, combined energy strong at 1363, but only for the brave on a shortboard. Friday the 31st offers a clean 5-6ft WNW swell, but the period stays short (8-9 seconds). Not bad, but not special.

We then hit a few days of lighter winds but mostly cross or light cross-onshore conditions. The swell drops to 3ft on the 1st of August, and 3ft on the 2nd, with longer periods but not great wind alignment. From the 3rd onwards, it gets weaker: down to 2-2ft, with onshore or cross-onshore winds, and the energy drops to weak (197-354). Conditions are poor, and I’d call it a flat spell for surf.

So, the standout here is Tuesday the 28th of July morning, with that clean 4ft SW swell, 18-second period, and light offshore wind. Also, Friday the 24th morning (24-second period) and Wednesday the 29th morning are worth a mention for clean, long-period groundswell.

-Rusty

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