Surf Forecasts:
The Patch surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 20 Aug, 2AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 8s period, WNW swell with 382 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 8PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:
The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 1.8m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 20) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 6s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 8PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Thu 20th Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what The Patch is serving up.
Water temp is about 59°F, which is normal for the season. But I gotta be straight with you – this forecast is a tough read. We’ve got a whole lot of time where you’re better off doing something else.
Sunday the 16th is a no-go. Swell is just 3ft from the SW, with a long 16-second period, but it’s cross-on and the wave comment says it’s questionable. Energy is moderate at 448. Monday and Tuesday are more of the same – small, messy, not worth the wax. Tuesday morning (18th) does show 6ft from the WNW, but it’s a short-period 8-second windswell with 725 energy. Still tagged as marginal with a light cross-shore wind.
The one to circle is Wednesday morning (19th). Swell hits 6ft from the NW, short 8-second period, and combined energy of 866 (moderate-strong). Light cross-shore wind means it’ll be a bit bumpy but not blown out. It’s a beginner-friendly break, and while the rating is only 2/5, this is your best window in the first week. Just know that crowds can show up “sometimes.”
It goes quiet again after that. Thursday and Friday (20-21) drop off hard. Saturday (22nd) morning has 4ft WNW at 7 seconds with clean cross-off wind, but it’s still only marginal.
The real highlight, if you can wait, is Friday 28 August afternoon. We get a 6ft WNW swell, short 7-second period, but combined energy jumps to 726 (moderate-strong), and the wind is cross-off. That’s the biggest swell of the whole run. It’s too big for beginners though – over 5ft – and that short period means it’ll be lumpy. For the experienced guys and gals, it’s worth a session late on the 28th.
So here’s the take: don’t bother with the first few days. Wednesday 19 August morning is the pick for beginners, and Friday 28 August afternoon is the one for the crew who know what they’re doing. Everything else is a gamble.
Stay patient, keep the board waxed, and don’t be afraid to wait.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Sun afternoon, min 12°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed morning, min 13°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WNW 8 | SW 16 | WNW 7 | NW 8 | SW 15 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | SW 14 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 362 | 287 | 255 | 255 | 255 | 169 | 306 | 261 | 188 | 368 | 223 | 382 | 151 | 197 | 192 | 93 | 170 | 165 | 113 | 117 | 251 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross |
High Tide | 3:01PM1.24m | 3:16AM1.01m | 3:36PM1.24m | 4:24AM0.89m | 4:13PM1.22m | 5:53AM0.82m | 4:57PM1.19m | 7:43AM0.81m | 5:49PM1.18m | 9:11AM0.86m | 6:48PM1.17m | 10:06AM0.91m | 7:48PM1.19m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:03AM0.16m | 9:51PM0.23m | 9:42AM0.28m | 10:49PM0.21m | 10:24AM0.41m | 11:52PM0.19m | 11:15AM0.52m | 1:00AM0.17m | 12:22PM0.60m | 2:08AM0.14m | 1:41PM0.64m | 3:09AM0.10m | 2:51PM0.64m | 4:01AM0.06m | |||||||
 | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  | | | | |
 | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — |
 | — | 8:01 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 7:59 | — | — | 7:57 | — | — | 7:55 | — | — | 7:54 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 17 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 14 |
Feels °C | 17 | 17 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WNW 8 | SW 16 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | SW 15 | SW 15 | W 12 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | W 11 | W 10 | SSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WNW 8 |
| kJ | 362 | 287 | 255 | 255 | 255 | 169 | 196 | 261 | 188 | 199 | 223 | 186 | 134 | 136 | 138 | 82 | 55 | 68 | 44 | 43 | 251 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 10 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 7 | S 9 | WNW 8 | SW 15 | W 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | W 12 | W 11 | SSW 14 | SW 19 | W 11 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | W 11 | WNW 10 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 77 | 74 | 68 | 38 | 7 | 24 | 220 | 19 | 149 | 217 | 74 | 89 | 129 | 14 | 58 | 93 | 68 | 20 | 34 | 102 | 63 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | WNW 8 | W 12 | SSW 18 | W 13 | S 8 | SW 17 | W 13 | SW 21 | — | WSW 19 | SW 19 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 17 | WNW 10 | SSW 12 |
| kJ | 9 | 8 | 8 | 24 | 3 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 77 | 82 | 18 | — | 37 | 15 | 15 | 51 | 49 | 47 | 47 | 20 | 14 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 6 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | — | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 94 | 80 | 306 | 165 | — | 368 | 199 | 382 | 151 | 197 | 192 | 91 | 170 | 165 | 113 | 117 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 263 | 0 | 22 | 121 | 22 | 22 | 121 | 83 | 22 | 120 | 22 | 22 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 120 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our The Patch surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the The Patch Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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