
Surf Forecasts:
The Patch surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 11AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 18s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 30 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 906 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 27 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 18s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:
The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 11s. Another secondary swell of 1.5m and 7s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 8PM.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8AM (Mon 27th Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 18s |
| Best Surf | 11AM (Tue 28th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 5AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break it down. The only spot that’s got any surf for the next 16 days is The Patch, so we’re sticking with it. It’s a fairly consistent, exposed beginner’s break, and it’s going to give us some small, clean waves, but you’ll need to pick your moments.
The first few days are pretty marginal. From Thursday the 23rd through to the end of the following week, we’ve got a solid run of consistent swell, but it’s mostly small—around 2ft to 4ft from the SSW to SW. The wind is a steady cross-offshore from the WNW, which keeps the surface glassy, but the energy is weak to moderate (303 to 1302). The standout mornings in this first week are Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 30th. On Tuesday the 28th, the morning will see about 4ft of SW swell, clean as a whistle, and the combined energy hits 1061. That’s the best call in the first week for a beginner looking for a clean, cruisy wave. Water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.
Now, the real highlight arrives on Wednesday the 29th. The morning brings a jump in size to 7ft, but it’s straight out of the NW with a short period of just 8 seconds. That’s a lot of power—1540 combined energy—and it’s gonna be shifty and walled up. This is strictly for experts; beginners will get hammered. The wind is still clean, but that short period makes it a handful.
After that, we drop back into the small stuff through the end of July and into the first week of August. The mornings of Friday the 31st and Sunday the 2nd of August are worth a look. Friday the 31st has 4ft from the WNW with light winds, and Sunday the 2nd offers 3ft from the SSW with a light offshore. Both are clean, but the swell is tiny.
There’s a significant gap in quality from the 3rd of August onwards. The swell gets a bit bigger, up to 5ft, but the wind turns onshore or cross-onshore, and the conditions go south. The energy is still there, but the quality drops off a cliff. It’s going to be a messy, choppy week for The Patch, and I’d be looking for a different spot.
Overall, the best bets are the mornings of July 28th and July 30th. The 28th offers the best combo of clean, small swell and good energy, while the 30th is a pure, clean, small wave session. The 29th is for the experts only. Don’t waste your time on the second week.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Fri afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Sun afternoon, min 12°C on Sun night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | WNW 8 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
264 | 257 | 229 | 329 | 546 | 541 | 386 | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 520 | 442 | 616 | 791 | 545 | 679 | 679 | 564 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:22AM0.80m | 7:32PM1.24m | 10:30AM0.86m | 8:20PM1.25m | 11:18AM0.91m | 9:07PM1.26m | 11:56AM0.95m | 9:52PM1.29m | 12:29PM0.98m | 10:34PM1.31m | 12:57PM0.99m | 11:13PM1.31m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:52AM0.11m | 1:58PM0.56m | 3:47AM0.05m | 3:02PM0.61m | 4:34AM0.00m | 3:59PM0.62m | 5:16AM-0.04m | 4:47PM0.61m | 5:53AM-0.06m | 5:29PM0.60m | 6:26AM-0.08m | 6:07PM0.58m | |||||||
— | 6:05 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | |
8:28 | — | 8:27 | — | — | 8:27 | — | — | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:22 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 15 |
Feels °C | 14 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 14 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 7 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 21 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 |
96 | 257 | 229 | 195 | 198 | 198 | 145 | 763 | 543 | 731 | 627 | 520 | 442 | 616 | 791 | 427 | 679 | 679 | 553 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | SSW 7 | S 7 | SW 26 | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 22 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 13 | SSW 11 | SSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 |
264 | 17 | 8 | 329 | 546 | 541 | 386 | 82 | 73 | 37 | 46 | 45 | 68 | 23 | 55 | 89 | 35 | 33 | 31 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 12 | NW 11 | SW 26 | NW 10 | NW 10 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | NW 9 | SW 12 | S 10 | SW 15 | S 10 | SW 21 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | S 10 | — | S 10 |
26 | 29 | 106 | 25 | 24 | 43 | 25 | 13 | 38 | 8 | 33 | 18 | 117 | 7 | 23 | 36 | 2 | — | 2 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | WNW 4 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | NW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 |
— | 25 | 50 | 71 | 46 | 80 | 147 | 77 | 123 | 202 | 107 | 196 | 277 | 163 | 278 | 545 | 345 | 590 | 564 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 122 | 120 | 54 | 120 | 120 | 83 | 120 | 120 | 22 | 22 | 120 | 83 | 22 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 121 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










