The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s ahead for The Patch.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first week or so is looking pretty grim. There’s a real flat spell with hardly anything worth paddling out for. The water’s sitting at 60°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, a solid 4° above average, so you might notice that if you’re just having a splash.

Thursday morning 2 July kicks things off with a 4ft swell from the WNW, but the wind’s onshore from the south at 9 mph, and the conditions are just poor. The wave energy is moderate (474), but the quality isn’t there. Thursday afternoon drops to 2ft from the SW with a long period of 15 seconds, but with a cross-onshore wind it’s still no good. Friday, Saturday, Sunday – all the same story: small swell, onshore or cross-onshore breezes, and poor surf. There’s a brief flicker of hope on Monday morning 6 July with a 3ft SW swell and light cross-shore wind (6 mph), but the energy is moderate (698) and it’s still only marginal. Monday afternoon sees a bit more wind (16 mph) from the WNW with a cross-offshore flow and clean surf, but the swell’s only 2ft. Not worth rushing for.

Now, hang on, because Wednesday morning 8 July is the first real standout. The Patch sees a clean 3ft SW swell with a very long period of 18 seconds, a light cross-offshore breeze from the WNW at 9 mph, and strong wave energy (1231). Conditions are excellent for experienced surfers – that long period groundswell will wrap in and offer some proper shape, but at a beach break it might break a touch straight, so pick your peak. Crowds can be a thing here sometimes, but with the quality this clean, you’ll want to get in early. This is the highlight of the first week.

From there, the surf builds but with some caveats. Wednesday afternoon hits 7ft from the WNW, but the period drops to a short 7 seconds, and with a fresh breeze from the WNW (19 mph) it’s a bit messy and strictly for experts. Thursday 9 July morning pumps 8ft from the NW with a period of 9 seconds – that’s a solid, powerful wave, but over 8ft means only experts should be out. Conditions are clean with light cross-shore wind from the west at 3 mph, and the energy is very strong (1973). Afternoon drops to 7ft WNW with a moderate breeze, still clean but a step down in quality.

Friday 10 July morning delivers 5ft from the WNW at 10 seconds, clean cross-offshore wind from the WNW at 6 mph, and wave energy of 723. Conditions are very good – this is a great size for most surfers, with a decent period and light wind. After that, things fade again through the weekend and into early the following week – more poor conditions with onshore flow and weak swell.

Then we get one more standout. Tuesday morning 14 July: The Patch gets a 6ft NW swell (8 second period), clean cross-offshore wind from the WNW at 9 mph, and strong wave energy (935). Conditions are very good again, and while it’s a shorter period, the clean wind makes it workable for experienced surfers. That’s your second real window.

After that, the end of the week sees some 5ft to 7ft WNW swells, but the winds shift onshore or cross-shore, so quality drops. By Friday 17 July, it’s back to small, marginal surf. All in all, the strongest windows are Wednesday 8 July morning and Tuesday 14 July morning – those are the ones to plan for.

Stay tuned, forecasts change.
Rusty.

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