
Surf Forecasts:
The Patch surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 9s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 1,052 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 12 Jul, 5PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:
The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 5PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.2m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 8AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5PM (Sun 12th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 11PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 8AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.
Alright, let’s get into it. This is a long-range look at The Patch, and honestly, it’s a mixed bag. We’re dealing with a fairly consistent spot that’s exposed to the SW, so it needs the right angle to really fire. The water is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a bit of a bonus.
We start off on Sunday the 12th with a bit of a slow roll. It’s small, only 2ft of SW swell, but the period is a solid 14 seconds, so it’s a long-period groundswell. The combined energy is moderate (409), and the wind is light and offshore in the morning, setting it up clean. It’s a beginner-friendly size, but don’t expect much push. The afternoon gets a bit better with a cross-off breeze, keeping it tidy.
Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th see a bump in size to 4ft, but the period drops to 8-9 seconds. That’s short-period, windswell stuff, and with cross or cross-off winds, the quality is just marginal. The energy stays moderate (325-364), but the waves will be a bit weak and messy.
Now, Wednesday the 15th is where it starts to get interesting. The swell builds to 5ft in the morning and then jumps to 7ft in the afternoon, coming from the WNW. The period is still short (8 seconds), but the wind is clean cross-off. The combined energy climbs to 439 in the morning and then a strong 763 in the afternoon. That afternoon session is the standout of the first week. It’s a good size, clean, and the energy is pumping. The 7ft is a bit big for beginners, but it’s not quite expert-only territory.
Thursday the 16th is the big one. The morning shows 8ft from the WNW with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 1523. That’s strong wave energy. The wind is clean cross-off, but the size is now in the expert-only zone. It’s big, powerful, and will be a handful. The afternoon drops to 7ft with energy at 807, still solid but a bit more manageable.
Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th see a drop in size and some shift in wind. The swell backs off to 5ft and then 2ft, with the wind turning cross-on. The quality takes a hit. The long-period SW swell (18 seconds) on Saturday the 18th is interesting, but the energy is still moderate (517), and the wind isn’t doing it any favours.
The second week, from Sunday the 19th through to Thursday the 24th, is pretty quiet. Swell heights are mostly under 3ft, with periods varying from 11 to 17 seconds. The wind stays light, mostly cross or cross-off, but the energy is weak (334-632). The best of this stretch is a brief window Wednesday the 23rd morning and Thursday the 24th afternoon, with a small 4ft WNW swell and 11-14 second period, but the wind is a bit onshore or cross. It’s not going to get the heart racing.
Then, looking ahead to the weekend of the 25th and 26th, there’s a flicker of hope. Saturday the 25th morning has a solid 4ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy is a strong 810. The wind is a clean cross-off. This is a real standout for the second week. The 4ft is a nice size, the period is good, and the wind is perfect. It’s the best call in the long-range forecast, but as always, a week out, treat it as promising rather than locked in. Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th drop back to small, long-period SW swell, but the energy is moderate and the wind is mixed.
Overall, the best of the whole run is Thursday the 16th morning for the big-wave crew, and for the rest of us, Saturday the 25th morning is the one to circle. The rest of the time, you’ll be scratching for a wave.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | SW 18 | SW 18 | W 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
206 | 208 | 287 | 212 | 192 | 292 | 179 | 204 | 263 | 238 | 579 | 857 | 825 | 589 | 675 | 405 | 295 | 227 | 192 | 201 | 172 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:49AM0.97m | 10:02PM1.51m | 12:36PM1.03m | 10:56PM1.53m | 1:18PM1.07m | 11:49PM1.51m | 2:00PM1.11m | 00:42AM1.44m | 2:40PM1.15m | 1:34AM1.34m | 3:20PM1.18m | 2:29AM1.20m | 3:59PM1.20m | 3:28AM1.05m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:34PM0.57m | 5:59AM-0.30m | 5:32PM0.55m | 6:47AM-0.32m | 6:29PM0.51m | 7:33AM-0.30m | 7:25PM0.47m | 8:17AM-0.24m | 8:22PM0.43m | 9:00AM-0.15m | 9:22PM0.39m | 9:42AM-0.03m | 10:26PM0.35m | ||||||||
5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | |
— | 8:34 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:32 | — | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:31 | — | — | 8:30 | — | — | 8:30 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 17 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 16 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | SSW 13 | WNW 8 | SW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | WNW 9 | SW 16 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 |
197 | 207 | 287 | 212 | 192 | 116 | 179 | 73 | 61 | 62 | 37 | 90 | 490 | 89 | 675 | 405 | 295 | 227 | 144 | 86 | 125 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 19 | SSW 13 | W 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | W 20 | SW 16 | W 19 | SW 15 | W 17 | W 17 | W 16 | W 16 | W 16 | W 16 |
206 | 208 | 162 | 120 | 118 | 96 | 106 | 37 | 109 | 108 | 74 | 72 | 90 | 116 | 139 | 148 | 148 | 188 | 181 | 178 | 172 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 18 | W 18 | W 16 | W 16 | W 14 | W 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | W 13 | W 13 | W 20 | SSW 12 | W 19 | SSW 12 | W 18 | SW 19 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | S 15 |
6 | 6 | 20 | 21 | 15 | 39 | 58 | 50 | 32 | 31 | 73 | 27 | 118 | 13 | 162 | 130 | 74 | 53 | 192 | 201 | 110 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | — | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 292 | — | 204 | 263 | 238 | 579 | 857 | 825 | 589 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 22 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 25 | 0 | 22 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 120 | 22 | 22 | 120 | 71 | 31 | 31 | 22 | 22 | 99 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










