The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer at The Patch over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’re looking at a bit of a wait. The first few days have some swell, but the conditions are messy and the scores are low. Thursday the 16th kicks off with a clean-looking 6ft to 7ft swell from the WNW, but the wind is a stiff cross-off at 15-18 mph, and the wave comment says it all – marginal. The combined energy is moderate, around 622-740, but it’s just not coming together for a good session. The water is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a nice little bonus for the wetsuit crew.

We’re going to have a dry spell through the end of this week and into the weekend. Friday the 17th morning has a brief flicker of hope with 5ft from the WNW and a lighter cross-off breeze, but the swell period is a short 8 seconds, so those waves will be a bit weak and crumbly. Saturday and Sunday, the swell drops right off to 2ft-3ft. The periods get long (16-18 seconds), but the energy is still moderate, and the wind is fluky, mostly cross or light cross-off. It’s just not enough to get excited about.

Monday and Tuesday of the following week (21st and 22nd July) are flat or poor. The wind turns onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is tiny and weak. This is a real gap in the action.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The real standout is shaping up for the end of the month. From Friday the 24th of July, the energy jumps significantly. The combined energy readings hit 1034 to 1428 – that’s strong energy. The swell on Friday the 24th is a touch smaller at 2ft-4ft, but the period on the morning is a massive 24 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell, and it’s coming from the SW. This kind of energy is going to line up beautifully at The Patch, which is an exposed spot. The wind is a clean cross-off from the WNW, so the faces will be smooth. It’s a bit of a wait, but the Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are looking even better, with clean 3ft-3ft swells and periods of 20-21 seconds. The energy stays strong (1344-1368). This is the best window on offer.

The absolute peak of the whole forecast looks like Monday the 27th of July. The morning shows a 6ft swell from the WNW, 9-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 1112. The wind is a light 9 mph cross-off from the WNW, making for clean, lined-up waves. The wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s the one to circle. The afternoon drops off a bit, but the morning session is where it’s at.

The final few days, from the 28th to the 31st, settle back down. The swell stays around 3ft-4ft, with periods of 14-18 seconds, and the wind holds mostly cross-off. It’s consistent, clean, and surfable, but the energy is moderate (444-888). Nothing wrong with it, but it won’t touch that peak on the 27th.

So, if you’re patient, the best surf is the Monday morning of the 27th of July. Big, clean, powerful swell for experienced surfers. The weekend before that (24th-26th) is also a fantastic run of long-period groundswell with clean conditions. The first week and a half is mostly a washout.

Rusty out.

Read more