The Patch Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.90° N 122.70° W

The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 am 17 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Patch sea temperature is
15.0° C
1.7° 

The Patch surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Patch surf forecast from 17 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 19 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 2PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 24s period, SW swell with 661 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 16s period with W swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:

The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 2AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 1.2m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 0.8m 24s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 2PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 2PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 2AM (Sat 18th Jul)2ft (0.6m) 16s
Best Surf11PM (Sun 19th Jul)2.5ft (0.8m) 17s
Most Powerful 2PM (Fri 24th Jul)2.5ft (0.8m) 24s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been watchin’ this patch of coast like a hawk. We’ve got a long window ahead, but it’s a slow burn, not a blowout. The first real surf worth paddling for hits this Friday morning, 17th July, with a solid 5 ft swell from the WNW, period around 8 seconds, and clean conditions thanks to a light cross-offshore breeze. The water’s sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The combined energy's moderate at 679. That Friday morning is the standout early on – clean, fair-sized, and with a beginner-friendly break like The Patch, it’s a good time for a learner to get out there.

The swell drops off quick after that. Friday afternoon stays around 5 ft but the wind picks up, and Saturday and Sunday are small, 2 ft to 2 ft, with periods that are huge (17 to 18 seconds) but the swell direction is mixed. Long-period groundswell like that can be a bit straight at a beach break, but the wind stays light or cross-off in the afternoons. Still, the energy is moderate (around 500 to 600), and the scores are low – not worth getting excited about.

Then Tuesday morning, 21st July, things perk up. The wind goes glassy – dead calm – and we get a 4 ft swell from the SSW, period 13 seconds. That’s a clean, glassy morning with moderate energy (578). That’s another small window of quality, but it’s short-lived. By Wednesday, the wind swings onshore from the south, and the swell gets messy and poor.

Thursday 23rd July sees a drop in swell to 2 ft, but the wind turns cross-off again, keeping things clean. The energy is weak (278), but it’s a decent small-wave session for a beginner. Then we hit a gap from Friday 24th through the weekend – the swell is tiny (2 ft to 3 ft) but with very long periods (21 to 24 seconds) and clean cross-off winds. The combined energy builds from 790 to over 1000, but the wave height is small. These are long-period groundswells that need a reef or point to shape up; at The Patch, a beach break, they’ll be fat and slow. Still, clean and small.

Now, the real standout is Sunday 26th July. The morning brings a 3 ft swell from the SW, period 19 seconds, with light cross-offshore wind from the west at 6 mph. The combined energy is strong at 1169, and the notes say “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s the one to circle on the calendar. The swell is small but the period is very long, so it’ll have plenty of push and shape for someone who knows how to read a groundswell. The wind is light, the water is clean.

After that, Monday 27th and Tuesday 28th July keep the same flavour: 3 ft to 4 ft from the SW, periods 18 seconds, with light cross winds and moderate to strong combined energy (1199 to 1417). The morning of Monday 27th has light cross-shore wind, not glassy, but still good. Nothing matches the 26th for quality though.

Late in the window, Wednesday 29th July sees the swell push up to 4 ft to 4 ft from the SW, but the wind goes onshore from the south, making it messy. Thursday 30th and Friday 31st bring a bigger groundswell from the NW – 8 ft to 7 ft – but the period is short (9 to 10 seconds) and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore. That’s too big for beginners and too messy for experts. The energy is strong (1940 on Thursday morning), but the quality is poor. It’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session.

The week of August 1st sees the swell drop back to 5 ft to 5 ft, still from the NW, with onshore or cross winds, and the energy falls off. Not much to chase there.

So, for the best on offer: Friday 17th July morning for a clean, beginner-friendly 5 ft left, and Sunday 26th July morning for the experienced surfer – that long-period, clean, strong-energy groundswell is the real gem. The Patch is fairly consistent, but it’s not a spot that lights up often. The gaps between the good days are a few days at a time, but the forecasts can change.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 11°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Warm (max 24°C on Tue afternoon, min 13°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light.

Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
2
3
0
0
1
2
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.5
WNW
8
0.6
W
17
0.6
W
16
0.6
SW
17
0.7
W
16
0.6
W
16
0.6
SW
16
0.7
SW
17
0.7
SW
17
0.7
SW
16
0.7
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
1.2
SSW
13
1.3
SSW
14
1.2
SSW
11
1.4
SSW
9
1.3
SSW
8
0.7
SW
14
0.7
SW
14
0.8
SSW
14
0.5
SW
26
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
284
220
188
243
258
174
167
297
270
242
242
295
514
649
325
307
216
208
206
261
329
Wind (km/h)
15
W
25
WNW
15
W
10
WSW
20
W
15
WNW
10
WSW
15
W
5
W
5
WSW
15
W
5
NW
5
WNW
10
WSW
5
S
15
S
15
SW
5
W
15
W
20
WNW
15
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
glassy
cross
glassy
on
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
3:20PM1.18m
2:29AM1.20m
3:59PM1.20m
3:28AM1.05m
4:38PM1.22m
4:36AM0.91m
5:18PM1.23m
6:02AM0.80m
6:00PM1.23m
7:47AM0.77m
6:45PM1.23m
9:22AM0.80m
7:32PM1.24m
Low Tide
9:00AM-0.15m
9:22PM0.39m
9:42AM-0.03m
10:26PM0.35m
10:24AM0.11m
11:33PM0.30m
11:09AM0.24m
00:42AM0.24m
11:57AM0.37m
1:50AM0.17m
12:54PM0.49m
2:52AM0.11m
1:58PM0.56m
3:47AM0.05m
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:01
6:01
6:03
6:03
6:03
6:05
6:05
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:30
8:30
8:30
8:29
8:29
8:28
8:27
 mm
Temp °C
14
15
12
15
16
12
15
16
13
13
16
15
21
24
20
18
18
16
17
18
15
Feels °C
11
12
8
14
14
9
14
14
11
12
15
14
21
22
19
17
16
16
16
16
13
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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