The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is a long-range look at The Patch, and honestly, it’s a mixed bag. We’re dealing with a fairly consistent spot that’s exposed to the SW, so it needs the right angle to really fire. The water is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a bit of a bonus.

We start off on Sunday the 12th with a bit of a slow roll. It’s small, only 2ft of SW swell, but the period is a solid 14 seconds, so it’s a long-period groundswell. The combined energy is moderate (409), and the wind is light and offshore in the morning, setting it up clean. It’s a beginner-friendly size, but don’t expect much push. The afternoon gets a bit better with a cross-off breeze, keeping it tidy.

Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th see a bump in size to 4ft, but the period drops to 8-9 seconds. That’s short-period, windswell stuff, and with cross or cross-off winds, the quality is just marginal. The energy stays moderate (325-364), but the waves will be a bit weak and messy.

Now, Wednesday the 15th is where it starts to get interesting. The swell builds to 5ft in the morning and then jumps to 7ft in the afternoon, coming from the WNW. The period is still short (8 seconds), but the wind is clean cross-off. The combined energy climbs to 439 in the morning and then a strong 763 in the afternoon. That afternoon session is the standout of the first week. It’s a good size, clean, and the energy is pumping. The 7ft is a bit big for beginners, but it’s not quite expert-only territory.

Thursday the 16th is the big one. The morning shows 8ft from the WNW with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 1523. That’s strong wave energy. The wind is clean cross-off, but the size is now in the expert-only zone. It’s big, powerful, and will be a handful. The afternoon drops to 7ft with energy at 807, still solid but a bit more manageable.

Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th see a drop in size and some shift in wind. The swell backs off to 5ft and then 2ft, with the wind turning cross-on. The quality takes a hit. The long-period SW swell (18 seconds) on Saturday the 18th is interesting, but the energy is still moderate (517), and the wind isn’t doing it any favours.

The second week, from Sunday the 19th through to Thursday the 24th, is pretty quiet. Swell heights are mostly under 3ft, with periods varying from 11 to 17 seconds. The wind stays light, mostly cross or cross-off, but the energy is weak (334-632). The best of this stretch is a brief window Wednesday the 23rd morning and Thursday the 24th afternoon, with a small 4ft WNW swell and 11-14 second period, but the wind is a bit onshore or cross. It’s not going to get the heart racing.

Then, looking ahead to the weekend of the 25th and 26th, there’s a flicker of hope. Saturday the 25th morning has a solid 4ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy is a strong 810. The wind is a clean cross-off. This is a real standout for the second week. The 4ft is a nice size, the period is good, and the wind is perfect. It’s the best call in the long-range forecast, but as always, a week out, treat it as promising rather than locked in. Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th drop back to small, long-period SW swell, but the energy is moderate and the wind is mixed.

Overall, the best of the whole run is Thursday the 16th morning for the big-wave crew, and for the rest of us, Saturday the 25th morning is the one to circle. The rest of the time, you’ll be scratching for a wave.

Rusty.

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