The Patch Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.90° N 122.70° W

The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 am 15 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Patch sea temperature is
16.8°C
2.1° 

The Patch surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Patch surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 21 Sep, 2AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 8s period, NW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 22 Sep, 5PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 12s period, WNW swell with 560 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 8PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:

The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 1.4m 12s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 22) at 5PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 6s period and expected on Friday (Sep 18) at 11PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Thu 17th Sep)1.5ft (0.5m) 15s
Best Surf 2AM (Mon 21st Sep)7ft (2.1m) 8s
Most Powerful 5PM (Tue 22nd Sep)4.5ft (1.4m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the cards for The Patch over the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag ahead, with a pretty slow start and then some glimmers of hope later on. The water is running about 62°F at the start, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a nice little bonus.

First off, things kick off on Tuesday 15th September with small, weak swell around 5ft from the WNW, but the wind is cross-on and the conditions are messy. That combined wave energy is only moderate (386). Honestly, not worth getting wet for. This marginal stuff carries on through Wednesday 16th and Thursday 17th, with swell dropping to 2ft on Thursday, though the period jumps to a very long 16 seconds. That long period means it’ll be clean but there will be long lulls between sets.

On Friday 18th September, the swell stays small around 2ft, but the period is a massive 19 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, even if the height is tiny. The combined energy creeps up to 471 on Friday afternoon, and the wind goes cross-offshore, so the lines will be clean. It’s not a stand-out for size, but for a log or a longboard, it could be a fun, glassy session if you’re patient.

The real interest picks up from Monday 21st September. Monday morning sees the swell pick up to 3ft from the SW with a 17-second period, but the magic is the glassy wind. That’s a major positive – clean, smooth conditions with a combined energy of 705 (moderate to strong). This is the first true standout of the forecast. Tuesday 22nd September morning is also glassy, with a 4ft WNW swell at 10 seconds, and the energy is solid at 678. That’s the pick of the whole run, offering clean, punchy waves for intermediate surfers.

Through the rest of that week, the 23rd and 24th see clean conditions too, but the swell hangs around 4ft to 4ft, with solid 11-12 second periods. The 25th September (Friday) has a small 3ft WNW swell in the morning but the wind is onshore, so it’s poor. The afternoon improves with a 5ft WNW at 10 seconds and the energy jumps to 593, but it’s cross-onshore, so it won’t be the cleanest.

As we move into the final days of September, the swell fades back down to 2ft to 3ft with long periods, but winds remain cross-offshore or clean for the most part. The 29th September Tuesday morning session has clean 2ft SW swell at 14 seconds – good for a cruise. The very end of the month on 30th September is small and clean but only 1ft to 2ft; surfable for a patient soul on a foamie.

Best on offer: Glassy Monday 21st September (3ft SW, 17s) for the cleanest lines, and Tuesday 22nd September (4ft WNW, 10s) for the best combo of size and glass. Crowds at The Patch are only *sometimes* an issue, so you should have room to breathe.

If you’re a beginner, the 4ft days are fine with the right wind, but the bigger days around 5ft might push your limits. The long-period stuff (over 15 seconds) is best handled at the top or bottom of the tide at this beach-and-reef setup.

Stay tuned, but these two mid-week windows are your golden hours.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu afternoon, min 13°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Fri morning, min 13°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
Friday
18
Saturday
19
Sunday
20
Monday
21
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
3
2
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.4
WNW
8
1.2
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.2
WNW
8
1.1
WNW
8
0.5
SW
16
0.5
SW
16
0.4
SW
21
0.6
SW
19
0.6
SW
19
1.3
WNW
6
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.7
SW
19
2.1
NW
8
0.8
SW
17
0.7
SW
17
0.8
SW
17
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
270
176
223
232
188
160
122
121
115
236
236
133
199
252
252
258
339
557
346
287
350
Wind (km/h)
5
SW
15
WSW
10
WSW
15
WNW
20
W
10
WSW
10
S
15
W
10
NW
5
W
25
WNW
20
WNW
10
W
20
WNW
20
WNW
20
WNW
25
WNW
15
WNW
5
SW
15
WNW
0
NW
Wind State
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross
cross-on
on
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
glassy
High Tide
2:34PM1.22m
4:20AM0.89m
3:11PM1.18m
5:46AM0.85m
3:58PM1.14m
7:26AM0.86m
4:56PM1.10m
8:38AM0.90m
6:04PM1.09m
9:23AM0.94m
7:12PM1.10m
9:55AM0.98m
8:14PM1.13m
Low Tide
9:01AM0.45m
10:04PM0.10m
9:44AM0.54m
11:00PM0.12m
10:41AM0.62m
00:05AM0.14m
12:03PM0.66m
1:15AM0.15m
1:30PM0.66m
2:21AM0.13m
2:37PM0.62m
3:15AM0.10m
3:28PM0.57m
3:58AM0.08m
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:52
6:52
6:54
6:54
6:54
6:56
6:56
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
7:19
7:16
7:15
7:14
7:12
7:10
7:08
 mm
Temp °C
17
17
14
15
16
16
17
18
15
18
18
13
16
17
14
15
16
13
16
17
16
Feels °C
17
16
13
13
13
14
16
16
13
18
16
10
15
16
11
12
12
9
16
16
16
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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