The Patch Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.90° N 122.70° W

The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 pm 14 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Patch sea temperature is
16.8°C
2.1° 

The Patch surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Patch surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 15 Sep, 5AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 8s period, WNW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 22 Sep, 2AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 10s period, WNW swell with 665 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 15 Sep, 5AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 8s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:

The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 1.9m 10s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 22) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 5PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 5AM (Tue 15th Sep)5.5ft (1.7m) 8s
Best Surf 5AM (Tue 15th Sep)5.5ft (1.7m) 8s
Most Powerful 2AM (Tue 22nd Sep)6ft (1.9m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I'm gonna be straight with you – the next couple of days are a bit of a write-off. We've got a bit of a flat spell to start, but don't you worry, there's some proper fun on the horizon. It's a bit of a slow burner, but the end of the run is looking very tasty indeed for those who can wait.

Let's start at The Patch, which is where all the action is. Monday the 14th kicks things off with a clean 5ft swell from the WNW, but it's marginal and honestly, not worth paddling out for. Tuesday and Wednesday are much the same – small, onshore, and choppy. Probably a good time to get the wax off your board and do some repairs.

Wednesday the 16th afternoon and Thursday the 17th see the mix get a bit weird. We get a tiny 2ft swell from the SW but with a massive 16-second period. That's proper long-period groundswell energy (268), which at a beach or beach-and-reef setup like The Patch will likely break too straight, so it's not for everyone. The wind does clean up Thursday arvo with a cross-off breeze.

Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th stay small but tidy. That tiny 2ft SW groundswell (19-second period!) hangs around, and the mornings are clean. The wave energy is moderate (395-489), but it's just too small to get excited about. Good for a longboard cruise if you're desperate.

Now, hold onto your boardies because Sunday the 20th is where it starts to get interesting. The morning sees a jump up to 6ft from the NW, and it's clean with a gentle cross-off breeze. The energy is building at 874, and the conditions are described as "very good." This is the first proper standout – a solid, clean, and surfable size for most intermediates.

Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd settle back a bit to 4-4ft, but Tuesday morning is a real gem. Glassy conditions, with the wind coming from the SSE at just 3 mph. That is a major positive—dead flat water. The swell is clean and rideable. The standouts, though, are the afternoons of Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd. Tuesday arvo has a 4ft WNW swell at 10 seconds with moderate energy (580) and clean conditions – a perfect combo for a fun session. Wednesday arvo is even better: 5ft from the NW with a 10-second period, energy at 737, and clean. That's the pick of the first week.

Thursday the 24th is a fade, back to the small stuff again. Friday the 25th through to Monday the 28th is a proper flat stretch. Tiny 2ft swells, poor winds, and chop. You'd be wasting your time. This gap of a few days is just dead.

But then… Tuesday the 29th. This is the big one for the crew who know how to handle some size. The morning session is an absolute standout: glassy, 7ft from the NW, and a combined swell energy of 1414. That is strong, solid wave energy. This is excellent for experienced surfers but would be too much for beginners. The afternoon, however, gets tricky: the swell jumps to 8ft from the WNW but the wind howls out of the NW at 19 mph. It'll be clean because it's cross-off, but that's expert territory. The water temperature at the start of this forecast is a very unusual 62°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year.

So, for the best on offer: Tuesday the 22nd afternoon and Wednesday the 23rd afternoon for that clean, fun, moderate-sized swell. But the true standout, if you're a confident surfer, is Tuesday the 29th morning – glassy, powerful, and big. Just be aware crowds are possible at The Patch, and it's a fairly consistent spot so it will be known.

Rusty, signing off.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue afternoon, min 13°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Fri morning, min 13°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
Friday
18
Saturday
19
Sunday
20
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
4
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.4
NW
8
1.4
WNW
8
1.2
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
8
1.2
WNW
8
1.1
WNW
8
0.5
SW
16
0.5
SW
16
0.4
SW
21
0.6
SW
19
0.6
SW
19
1.3
WNW
7
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.7
SW
19
1.6
WNW
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
844
256
181
223
237
183
160
122
121
115
236
236
158
199
252
252
258
339
364
Wind (km/h)
10
WNW
5
S
15
WSW
10
SW
15
W
20
W
10
WSW
5
SSW
15
WNW
10
WNW
5
W
25
WNW
20
WNW
10
W
20
WNW
20
WNW
10
W
15
WNW
10
WSW
Wind State
cross-off
on
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
High Tide
3:12AM0.96m
2:34PM1.22m
4:20AM0.89m
3:11PM1.18m
5:46AM0.85m
3:58PM1.14m
7:26AM0.86m
4:56PM1.10m
8:38AM0.90m
6:04PM1.09m
9:23AM0.94m
7:12PM1.10m
Low Tide
9:14PM0.09m
9:01AM0.45m
10:04PM0.10m
9:44AM0.54m
11:00PM0.12m
10:41AM0.62m
00:05AM0.14m
12:03PM0.66m
1:15AM0.15m
1:30PM0.66m
2:21AM0.13m
2:37PM0.62m
3:15AM0.10m
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:52
6:52
6:54
6:54
6:54
6:56
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
7:19
7:16
7:15
7:14
7:12
7:10
 mm
Temp °C
14
17
18
14
15
16
16
18
18
15
18
18
13
16
17
13
15
16
13
Feels °C
11
16
17
13
13
12
14
18
16
13
18
16
10
15
15
10
14
15
11
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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