
Surf Forecasts:
The Patch surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 8s period, WNW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 11AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 9s period, NW swell with 989 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 7 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 20s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:
The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 20s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 16s. Another secondary swell of 1.4m and 7s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 2.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 11AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 5AM (Tue 7th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 20s |
| Best Surf | 8AM (Wed 8th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 11AM (Thu 9th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s ahead for The Patch.
Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first week or so is looking pretty grim. There’s a real flat spell with hardly anything worth paddling out for. The water’s sitting at 60°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, a solid 4° above average, so you might notice that if you’re just having a splash.
Thursday morning 2 July kicks things off with a 4ft swell from the WNW, but the wind’s onshore from the south at 9 mph, and the conditions are just poor. The wave energy is moderate (474), but the quality isn’t there. Thursday afternoon drops to 2ft from the SW with a long period of 15 seconds, but with a cross-onshore wind it’s still no good. Friday, Saturday, Sunday – all the same story: small swell, onshore or cross-onshore breezes, and poor surf. There’s a brief flicker of hope on Monday morning 6 July with a 3ft SW swell and light cross-shore wind (6 mph), but the energy is moderate (698) and it’s still only marginal. Monday afternoon sees a bit more wind (16 mph) from the WNW with a cross-offshore flow and clean surf, but the swell’s only 2ft. Not worth rushing for.
Now, hang on, because Wednesday morning 8 July is the first real standout. The Patch sees a clean 3ft SW swell with a very long period of 18 seconds, a light cross-offshore breeze from the WNW at 9 mph, and strong wave energy (1231). Conditions are excellent for experienced surfers – that long period groundswell will wrap in and offer some proper shape, but at a beach break it might break a touch straight, so pick your peak. Crowds can be a thing here sometimes, but with the quality this clean, you’ll want to get in early. This is the highlight of the first week.
From there, the surf builds but with some caveats. Wednesday afternoon hits 7ft from the WNW, but the period drops to a short 7 seconds, and with a fresh breeze from the WNW (19 mph) it’s a bit messy and strictly for experts. Thursday 9 July morning pumps 8ft from the NW with a period of 9 seconds – that’s a solid, powerful wave, but over 8ft means only experts should be out. Conditions are clean with light cross-shore wind from the west at 3 mph, and the energy is very strong (1973). Afternoon drops to 7ft WNW with a moderate breeze, still clean but a step down in quality.
Friday 10 July morning delivers 5ft from the WNW at 10 seconds, clean cross-offshore wind from the WNW at 6 mph, and wave energy of 723. Conditions are very good – this is a great size for most surfers, with a decent period and light wind. After that, things fade again through the weekend and into early the following week – more poor conditions with onshore flow and weak swell.
Then we get one more standout. Tuesday morning 14 July: The Patch gets a 6ft NW swell (8 second period), clean cross-offshore wind from the WNW at 9 mph, and strong wave energy (935). Conditions are very good again, and while it’s a shorter period, the clean wind makes it workable for experienced surfers. That’s your second real window.
After that, the end of the week sees some 5ft to 7ft WNW swells, but the winds shift onshore or cross-shore, so quality drops. By Friday 17 July, it’s back to small, marginal surf. All in all, the strongest windows are Wednesday 8 July morning and Tuesday 14 July morning – those are the ones to plan for.
Stay tuned, forecasts change.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun morning, min 11°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 2 | Friday 3 | Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 16 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 19 | WNW 8 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
280 | 181 | 192 | 192 | 201 | 201 | 149 | 184 | 128 | 252 | 249 | 152 | 314 | 206 | 455 | 303 | 379 | 455 | 510 | 455 | 447 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:06PM0.99m | 1:22AM1.19m | 3:36PM1.01m | 2:05AM1.12m | 4:06PM1.05m | 2:53AM1.03m | 4:38PM1.10m | 3:51AM0.93m | 5:12PM1.15m | 5:05AM0.82m | 5:50PM1.21m | 6:39AM0.76m | 6:32PM1.28m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:27AM-0.12m | 8:21PM0.58m | 9:01AM-0.09m | 9:08PM0.56m | 9:35AM-0.04m | 10:03PM0.52m | 10:12AM0.03m | 11:05PM0.45m | 10:51AM0.13m | 00:11AM0.35m | 11:34AM0.24m | 1:18AM0.23m | 12:25PM0.35m | 2:22AM0.10m | |||||||
5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | |
— | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:36 | — | — | 8:35 | — | — | 8:35 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 12 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 12 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 12 | SW 20 | WNW 8 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
280 | 176 | 192 | 192 | 157 | 179 | 149 | 153 | 128 | 160 | 134 | 134 | 160 | 147 | 455 | 268 | 379 | 455 | 510 | 443 | 310 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SSW 19 | SW 13 |
157 | 181 | 106 | 134 | 201 | 201 | 102 | 140 | 103 | 252 | 249 | 152 | 314 | 206 | 161 | 196 | 103 | 104 | 444 | 123 | 44 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 19 | S 10 | SSW 18 | S 10 | W 15 | SSW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | W 12 | W 13 | SW 13 | SW 21 | SW 21 | W 11 | SW 19 | S 8 | S 11 | — | — | SW 13 |
37 | 9 | 123 | 9 | 17 | 44 | 62 | 184 | 96 | 47 | 82 | 61 | 224 | 160 | 66 | 303 | 1 | 9 | — | — | 28 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | — | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | WNW 7 | WNW 8 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 122 | 242 | — | 217 | 256 | 277 | 455 | 447 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 31 | 237 | 31 | 22 | 25 | 45 | 31 | 121 | 22 | 42 | 121 | 22 | 25 | 121 | 54 | 22 | 121 | 22 | 0 | 120 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United States | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










