The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s headed our way for The Patch over the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the good news is there’s some proper groundswell on the horizon. The water is sitting at 62°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might get away with a step down in rubber.

The first few days are small but promising. Tuesday the 8th kicks off with a clean afternoon – a 2ft SSW swell, 11 seconds, and a light WNW cross-off breeze. That’s a sneaky good session if you can get out. The energy is weak (234), but it’ll be tidy. Wednesday morning the 9th is the real standout early on: glassy conditions, a tiny 2ft SW swell but with a very long 19-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy (268) and it’ll wrap in nicely. The Patch is exposed to the SW, so this is a perfect match. The period is so long it’ll be best on the point, with long lulls and clean walls. This is the pick of the first week.

Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th see the swell bump up a bit, but the wind swings more cross-off from the WNW. Sizes around 3ft to 3ft from the SW, with periods dropping to 16 seconds. The energy is moderate (534-686), but the conditions are clean. Lighter morning winds on Friday are better.

Now, Saturday the 12th gets a bit lumpy. Swell pushes to 6ft but it’s short-period WNW windswell at just 7 seconds. The energy is strong (702), but it’s messy and the fresh breeze is making it choppy. Not great for a paddle board – if you’ve got a kite, this might be more your scene.

We drop back down on Sunday the 13th morning with a clean 2ft SW swell, 13 seconds, and a light NW breeze. A nice little window. But the afternoon turns poor with a 5ft, 6-second windswell and 30 km/h winds. Avoid.

The middle of the week from Monday the 14th to Tuesday the 15th is a write-off for quality. Swell between 4ft and 6ft, but it’s all short-period WNW windswell (8-9 seconds) and the wind is howling at 25-30 km/h. The energy is moderate to strong (495-532), but the surf will be ugly and blown out. Not worth paddling out.

Then we get another nice little pulse. Wednesday the 16th morning: a tiny 1ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period, and a light NW cross-off breeze. Glassy, clean, and that long period will make it fun on the low tide banks. A proper micro-session.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th are similar. Small SW swells (2ft to 2ft), long 16-19 second periods, and light to gentle cross-off winds. The energy is moderate (305-387). These mornings are the best of the second week. Not big, but clean and lined up.

The weekend of the 20th and 21st is poor. The wind goes onshore from the SSW and SW, killing the surface. The swell is still there (2ft, SW), but it’s choppy and messy. Skip it.

Finally, Tuesday the 22nd morning is a beauty. Flat calm, glassy conditions, and a 2ft SW swell with 16-second period. The energy is moderate (315). That’s your last real standout – a clean, empty morning.

Wednesday the 23rd sees a return to short-period WNW windswell (4ft-6ft, 7-8 seconds) and 25 km/h winds. Not for the paddle crew.

Overall, the best windows are Wednesday morning the 9th for that long-period glass and Tuesday morning the 22nd for the calm conditions. The Patch is fairly consistent, so even in the quiet spells, keep an eye on the morning light wind windows.

Rusty.

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