The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for The Patch over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a slow start. The surf is just about rideable from Friday afternoon, but it’s not going to get your heart racing. The first real window of interest doesn’t kick in until the middle of next week.

We start things off on Friday, July 10th, with a modest 6ft swell out of the WNW, but the period is a short 8 seconds and the wind is a cross-offshore breeze at 12 mph. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 59°. The combined energy is moderate at 811, but the overall vibe is pretty marginal. It’s surfable for a beginner, but don’t expect any gems.

Saturday morning drops to 4ft, still WNW, with a gentle 9 mph cross-off wind. The period drops to 7 seconds, which is pretty weak. The energy drops to 358. It’s clean, but weak. The afternoon sees a tiny 2ft swell with a very long 15-second period, but the energy is moderate at 401. It’s a weird mix – small but with long gaps between sets.

Sunday and Monday are much the same story: 4ft to 5ft swell, short period (8-9 seconds), light winds, but the wind starts to get a bit cross or cross-on. The energy stays in the moderate range (402 to 502). It’s clean enough but nothing special. The Patch is a fairly consistent beginner spot, and this is pretty average fare for it.

Now, things start to look a bit more interesting on Wednesday, July 15th. The swell bumps up to 7ft out of the WNW with an 8-second period. The energy jumps to strong at 1025, and the wind is a clean cross-off at 12 mph. That’s got some push to it. However, 7ft is getting into the range where it’s a bit much for beginners and more suited to those with a bit of experience. The Patch is exposed to the swell, so it’ll be handling that size.

Thursday, July 16th, is probably the standout of the whole run. The swell is a solid 6ft, WNW, with a 9-second period, and the wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-off. The energy is strong at 662. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the one to circle. Clean, punchy waves, and the cross-off wind will keep the faces nice. The crowd factor is listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few others out, but it won’t be a circus.

After that, the swell drops off a cliff. From Friday, July 17th, through to the end of the period, we’re looking at tiny 2ft to 2ft swells, mostly from the SW with very long periods (15-18 seconds). The energy is still moderate (437 to 571), but the size is just too small for any decent rides. The wind is mostly light and cross or cross-on. This is a long stretch of flat to near-flat conditions that lasts for about a week.

There is a slight uptick on Wednesday, July 22nd, with a 5ft WNW swell and a light 6 mph cross-off wind, but it’s a one-day blip before the wind turns onshore and ruins it on Thursday.

So, the honest truth: The best bet is Thursday, July 16th. That’s your day. Get out there for a morning session. The Patch won’t be firing, but it’ll be the best it gets in this 16-day window. The rest of the time, you’re either dealing with small, weak waves or a long flat spell. It’s not the best run for this spot, but forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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