The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next 16 days at The Patch are a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a couple of real gems hiding in there if you’re patient. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might get away with a thinner wetsuit.

We’ve got a slow start. Thursday the 16th kicks off with a WNW swell of 7ft, but it’s a short-period 8 seconds and banging in with a 19 mph cross-offshore wind. The combined energy is moderate (819), and while it’s clean, that swell size is too big for beginners and the wind is a bit on the strong side. It’s a so-so start.

Friday the 17th drops down to 5ft, still short-period 8 seconds, but the wind is cross-shore and light in the morning, creating a little chop. Afternoon picks up a cleaner cross-off with 5ft and 16 mph wind. Still not a standout, but surfable.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th see the swell drop right off to tiny 2ft. The periods jump to 17-18 seconds, which is proper groundswell, but there’s just not enough height to do anything with it. The energy is moderate (545-649), but these are wave-size days, not wave-riding days. Monday the 20th is similar – tiny and choppy.

Now, here’s the first real highlight. Tuesday the 21st morning. The wind goes completely glassy (0 mph), and we get a 4ft SSW swell at 13 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (516), but the key is the glassy conditions. That’s a special window, and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” The Patches can get crowded sometimes, so get in early.

After that, the swell drops back to 2ft for the rest of the week. Wednesday the 22nd through Friday the 24th are small, though the period stays long (14-24 seconds), keeping the energy moderate. The winds are cross-offshore and clean, but the waves are just too small to get excited about.

Now, hold onto your board. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are the real standouts. The swell holds at 3-3ft from the SW, but the period is a very long 19-21 seconds. The combined energy jumps to strong (1508-1665) – that’s a lot of power for a waist-high wave. The wind is a gentle 9-16 mph cross-offshore, keeping it clean. The forecast for Sunday the 26th morning says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s the one to circle.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th keep the same vibe: 3-4ft SW swell, 18 seconds, clean cross-off winds, and combined energy in the strong range (998-1733). Tuesday the 28th morning is also flagged as “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” Consistent, clean, and punchy.

The last few days, Wednesday the 29th to Friday the 31st, fade out. The swell stays around 3ft, but the period drops to 14-16 seconds, and the wind turns onshore or cross-onshore, bringing chop. The energy drops back to moderate. Friday the 31st afternoon is called “poor surf conditions,” so that’s your cue to hang it up.

Best bet: get out for Tuesday the 21st morning for the glassy magic, and then lock in Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th for the long-period, powerful, clean waves. The Patch is a fairly consistent spot, so there’s always a chance the forecasts improve, but these are your windows.

Rusty.

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