The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right on, surfers—Rusty here. Let’s get into the outlook for The Patch over the next couple of weeks. The first few days are a bit of a write-off, so we’ll have to be patient. A week from now, though, things start to look interesting, especially for those of you who can handle a bit of size and clean conditions.

The Patch is a beginner-friendly, fairly consistent spot exposed to SW swell, with an offshore wind from the N. Crowds can show up sometimes, so keep that in mind.

Friday July 3rd kicks off with small, weak surf—just 2 ft of SW swell. The wind is cross-on, and the water is a touch warmer than normal at 15°. Combined wave energy is only 264—pretty weak. The waves are messy with poor conditions all day. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday July 4th morning has a bit more size at 3 ft from the WNW, but the period is short (8 seconds) and the wind is straight onshore. Afternoon drops to 2 ft and cross-on. Stay on the beach.

Sunday July 5th is more of the same—small, weak, and poor. Cross-on or cross winds, energy in the 427-432 range. Nothing doing.

Monday July 6th sees a slight uptick: 3 ft SW swell in the morning, with light cross-shore breeze and clean-ish afternoon conditions (cross-off wind). Energy climbs to 698-626. Still marginal—tide could be a factor—but it’s the first day that’s not a total washout.

Tuesday July 7th stays marginal. Morning is 2 ft from the SW with light cross winds; afternoon is 3 ft with a clean cross-off breeze. Energy’s up to 883 in the morning. Still not great, but the wind is starting to line up.

Now here’s where it gets good.

Wednesday July 8th is the first standout. Morning delivers 3 ft of SW swell with a clean, light cross-off wind. Combined energy hits 1231—that’s moderate but punchy—and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is the best of the first week. The swell direction matches the optimum SW, so The Patch should be firing clean. Afternoon remains clean but drops a bit in energy (1052). If you’re keen, Wednesday morning is your window.

Thursday July 9th jumps up in size—7 ft from the NW in the morning, 8 ft from the WNW in the afternoon. Period is short at 8 seconds, so it’ll be a bit crumbly. Morning energy is 1439—solid moderate energy. Clean cross-off wind all day, but this size is really for experienced surfers only. It’s going to be too big for beginners.

Friday July 10th morning brings another standout: 7 ft from the NW, clean cross-off, light winds, and excellent conditions for experienced surfers. Energy is high at 1317. This is the pick of the bigger swells. A proper clean, powerful session for those who know what they’re doing. Afternoon drops to 6 ft with a moderate breeze—still clean but less energy.

Saturday July 11th through Sunday July 12th sees a drop-off. Poor conditions, onshore or cross-on wind, small swell (2 ft). Back to the beach.

Monday July 13th morning offers a rare treat: glassy conditions at The Patch! Only 5 ft from the WNW with 7-second period, but the wind is glass—slight air. Expect good surf conditions, combined energy of 426. A nice, clean, mellow session for intermediate surfers. Afternoon remains clean with cross-off wind and 7 ft—still good.

Tuesday July 14th morning is another highlight: 6 ft from the WNW, clean, very light offshore cross-off breeze, and expect very good surf conditions. Energy is 604. This is a solid, fun morning with clean lines. Afternoon jumps to 8 ft—expert territory—with clean but more powerful conditions (energy 1003).

Wednesday July 15th and onwards the swell stays in the 6 ft to 8 ft range, mostly from the WNW with short period. Winds are mostly cross-on or cross, not perfect. Energy varies from 576 to 1013. The best of the late period is probably Tuesday morning July 14th—that clean, moderate-size session is the real runner-up to the standout Wednesday 8th and Friday 10th.

So, if you’re chasing the best: Wednesday July 8th morning for clean, fun SW swell, and Friday July 10th morning for bigger, expert-level NW swell. Glassy Monday 13th is a nice consolation if you want something mellow.

Stay keen, stay patient—the good stuff is coming.

Rusty

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