The Patch Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.90° N 122.70° W

Issued: 4 am 03 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Patch sea temperature is
14.8° C

1.8°C warmer than normal for this time of year

The Patch surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Patch surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 8s period, WNW swell with 741 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 7 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 11s period with WNW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:

The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 20s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 16s. Another secondary swell of 1.3m and 11s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 2.4m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 11PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 5PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8AM (Tue 7th Jul)4.5ft (1.3m) 11s
Best Surf 8AM (Thu 9th Jul)3ft (0.9m) 16s
Most Powerful11PM (Thu 9th Jul)8ft (2.4m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Right then, let's have a look at what The Patch has in store for us.

Honestly, for the next couple of weeks, we’re looking at a real mixed bag. There’s a bit of a slow start, and while there is some decent energy building up mid-period, the quality is going to be up and down. The standout window looks to be from Wednesday the 8th through to Friday the 10th, with some proper swell and clean conditions. But don't get too carried away with the long-range stuff, it’s still a way off.

Right now, on Friday the 3rd, it’s a quiet one. We’ve got a tiny 4ft swell from the WNW, but it’s a short-period 8 second windswell with an onshore wind. The combined energy is weak at 292, and the surf report is calling it poor. Saturday and Sunday look like more of the same – small and messy, not worth your time unless you’re desperate for a paddle.

We finally start to see some promise on Monday morning the 6th. Swell builds to 3ft from the SW with a much better 16-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 679, and while it’s cross-shore, it’s still a bit choppy. It’s marginal, but it’s a step in the right direction.

Now, Tuesday the 7th is still marginal, but you can feel something brewing. The morning shows light cross-shore winds and a 19-second period 2ft SW swell. The energy is up to 671. By the afternoon, the wind picks up to a cross-offshore 16 mph from the WNW, tidying things up a bit, but the swell is still small.

Here’s where it gets good. Wednesday morning, the 8th of July, is a real standout. We’ve got 3ft of SW swell at 18 seconds, with light offshore winds from the WNW. The combined energy is a solid 774, and the conditions are described as *very good*. It’s clean, it’s got push, and the offshore wind will make for some lovely lines. This is the one to circle on your calendar. The patch will be offering up clean, lined-up waves for the experienced crew.

Thursday the 9th sees the swell really kick in. The morning brings a punchy 6ft from the WNW, but the period drops to 8 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a strong 1306, and with clean cross-offshore winds, it’s excellent for experienced surfers. However, 6ft with that short period will be a bit of a handful, definitely not for beginners. By Friday the 10th, we’ve got the biggest swell of the period: 8ft from the NW at 9 seconds. Combined energy is a massive 1570, and the morning winds are light and offshore from the west. This is big and powerful – expert territory only. It’s going to be a heavy, thumping wave at The Patch.

After that peak, things taper off quickly. Saturday the 11th is a write-off with onshore winds and choppy conditions. Sunday the 12th has a bit of a breeze, but the swell is all over the place, with a 6ft, 7-second windswell in the afternoon that will be a mess.

From Monday the 13th onwards, we go into a quieter, more consistent but small pattern. We’re looking at 2ft to 4ft swells with mostly cross-offshore winds, but the energy is low and the surf will be underwhelming. Nothing really stands out in that second week, it’s just small and clean, which might be fine for a longboard or a beginner session, but nothing to get excited about.

So, to wrap it up: your best bets are Wednesday morning the 8th for a clean, fun-sized SW groundswell with offshore winds, and Friday morning the 10th for the biggest, most powerful waves of the fortnight – but only if you know what you’re doing.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri morning, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed morning, min 10°C on Tue night). Mainly fresh winds.

Friday
3
Saturday
4
Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
1
3
2
0
2
3
1
2
3
1
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
1.1
WNW
8
0.5
SW
19
1
WNW
8
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.5
SW
18
0.8
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.8
SW
20
1.2
WNW
11
0.8
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
16
1.9
WNW
8
0.9
SW
16
2.1
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
134
201
201
146
184
125
252
249
152
314
206
455
328
379
455
510
521
408
437
579
583
Wind (km/h)
10
SSW
15
W
10
SW
15
SSW
15
WSW
10
WSW
10
SSW
15
WSW
10
WSW
15
WSW
15
W
20
WNW
15
W
25
WNW
25
WNW
15
WNW
25
WNW
25
NW
15
WNW
25
WNW
15
WNW
Wind State
cross-on
cross
cross-on
on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
3:36PM1.01m
2:05AM1.12m
4:06PM1.05m
2:53AM1.03m
4:38PM1.10m
3:51AM0.93m
5:12PM1.15m
5:05AM0.82m
5:50PM1.21m
6:39AM0.76m
6:32PM1.28m
8:24AM0.76m
7:20PM1.34m
Low Tide
9:01AM-0.09m
9:08PM0.56m
9:35AM-0.04m
10:03PM0.52m
10:12AM0.03m
11:05PM0.45m
10:51AM0.13m
00:11AM0.35m
11:34AM0.24m
1:18AM0.23m
12:25PM0.35m
2:22AM0.10m
1:24PM0.45m
3:21AM-0.03m
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:52
5:52
5:54
5:54
5:54
5:54
5:56
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:36
8:36
8:36
8:36
8:35
8:35
8:35
 mm
Temp °C
16
16
13
15
15
12
14
14
13
14
14
13
14
14
12
15
15
14
15
16
13
Feels °C
15
14
11
13
13
10
12
11
11
12
11
10
12
11
8
12
11
9
12
12
8
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1.1
WNW
8
1.1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1.1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
8
1
WNW
9
0.7
WNW
12
0.8
SW
20
0.6
SW
16
0.8
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
0.9
SW
18
1
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.9
SW
16
0.8
SW
16
Energy kJ
122
128
157
146
125
125
157
131
134
141
147
455
196
379
455
510
521
310
437
371
291
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
SW
15
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.5
SW
14
0.6
SSW
14
0.5
SW
14
0.6
SW
18
0.6
SW
18
0.5
SW
18
0.8
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
16
0.6
SW
19
0.5
SW
14
0.5
SW
15
0.9
SW
18
0.4
SSW
19
0.4
SW
13
0.9
SW
16
0.7
SW
16
Energy kJ
134
201
201
102
140
103
252
249
152
314
206
161
303
103
104
444
123
44
381
248
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.2
S
10
0.2
W
15
0.2
SSW
21
0.3
SW
20
0.5
SW
19
0.4
SW
19
0.4
W
12
0.5
W
13
0.5
SW
13
0.5
SW
21
0.4
SW
21
0.3
SSW
12
0.2
S
8
0.1
S
8
0.2
SSW
11
0.4
SW
13
Energy kJ
8
17
44
62
184
96
47
84
85
224
160
28
5
1
12
45
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
WNW
8
1.3
WNW
11
1.2
WNW
11
1.4
WNW
6
1.8
WNW
7
1.4
WNW
7
1.6
WNW
7
1.9
WNW
8
1.8
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
2.1
WNW
8
Energy kJ
94
401
328
145
343
220
242
408
382
579
583
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
3
2
2
2
3
2
4
3
2
Distance (km)
22
22
25
22
31
121
22
42
121
71
465
121
54
22
121
22
0
120
110
0
121
Best forecast wave conditions in Marin County
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
2
1
2
1
3
2
2
3
4
Best forecast wave conditions in United States
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
2
3
2
2
3
2
1
3
3
2
4
2
2
4
4
3
4
4
3
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
5
8
5
4
5
5
9
6
7
6
9
7
5
6
9
9
9
6
5
6
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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