The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid run of surf coming up at The Patch, but it’s not for the faint of heart. The week ahead is shaping up with a few standout windows, especially for the experienced crew.

The pattern starts Tuesday, 28 July. The swell is a long-period groundswell out of the SW at 4 ft, with a period of 18 seconds. That’s proper energy, and the combined energy reading is 885 (moderate). The wind is a light cross-offshore from the WNW at 9 mph, so the surf will be clean. But it’s marginal for tide conditions, so it’s not firing at its best. The water temperature feels about average for this time of year.

Wednesday, 29 July, is a better call. The morning sees a 3 ft SW swell, still a long 16-second period, with lighter WNW winds at 6 mph. The energy is 856 (moderate), and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the pick of the first few days – clean, manageable, and a little more consistent.

By Thursday, 30 July, the swell swings to the NW at 7 ft but the period drops to 8 seconds. That’s a short-period wind swell, and it’s more power: 1390 (moderate to strong). The morning winds are light cross-off at 9 mph, so it’s clean. But this is expert territory – 7 ft is heavy, and the short period means it’ll be punchy. The Patch is exposed, so it’ll take the full hit. If you’re experienced, the Thursday morning window is a standout.

Friday, 31 July, and Saturday, 1 August, keep the energy up. Friday morning has 6 ft NW swell with 8-second period, 1023 (moderate), and light WNW winds. Saturday morning hits 7 ft NW again, 1176 (moderate), still clean with light winds. Both mornings are excellent for experienced surfers. The combo of size, light wind, and cross-off conditions makes these the best of the week.

Sunday, 2 August, eases a touch with 7 ft WNW swell at 9 seconds, 755 (moderate), and light winds. Still good, but not a standout.

From Monday, 3 August, things get messy. The wind swings onshore from the S, and the quality drops. The swell holds around 5–6 ft, but the wind and tide conditions are marginal. This stretch through to Wednesday, 12 August, is a mixed bag. There’s a brief window on Thursday, 6 August, with 5 ft WNW swell, 10-second period, 515 (moderate), and clean cross-off winds – “expect very good surf conditions” – but it’s not as big as the earlier days.

After that, it fades. From Friday, 7 August, onward, the swell drops to 4–4 ft, and poor surf conditions dominate. The onshore winds and small swell mean it’s flat and choppy. The Patch goes quiet until the very last record on Wednesday, 12 August, where a tiny 2 ft SW groundswell pops up with a 18-second period, but it’s barely enough to get excited about. The overall energy is 459 (weak), and the wind is light cross-on. Not worth paddling out.

So, the standout is Thursday, 30 July, through Saturday, 1 August, mornings. Big NW swell, clean cross-off winds, and plenty of grunt for the experts. Wednesday, 29 July, morning is the best for someone wanting a smaller, cleaner wave. After that, the second week is a write-off – a long gap of poor conditions from the 7th onwards.

Keep an eye on the forecast, but for now, get your sessions in early.

Rusty.

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