The Patch Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.90° N 122.70° W

The Patch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 10 pm 21 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Patch sea temperature is
14.8° C
1.2° 

The Patch surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Patch surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 22 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 25 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 21s period, SW swell with 880 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 22 Jul, 8PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Patch this week:

The surf forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 8PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Patch in the next 16 days are 1.0m 21s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 25) at 8AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 8PM.

Wave TypeTime (PDT) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 8PM (Wed 22nd Jul)2.5ft (0.7m) 14s
Best Surf 8PM (Wed 22nd Jul)2.5ft (0.7m) 14s
Most Powerful 8AM (Sat 25th Jul)3.5ft (1.0m) 21s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Patch over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window for The Patch, and honestly, it’s a bit of a slow burn. The water is sitting at 58°F which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a nice little bonus if you’re getting in.

The whole first week is a real struggle. We’re looking at Tuesday afternoon through to the following Monday morning with nothing but marginal calls. The wind is mostly on it or cross-off, but the swell is just too weak and short to get excited about. The combined energy never really gets going, mostly moderate at best, with values like 509 (moderate) and 542 (moderate). The direction is a constant SSW, which is fine for the spot, but the height is a piddly 4ft to 5ft and the period is all over the place. It’s just not happening.

Then, things start to look a little more interesting. The real standout is Thursday, July 30th morning. The forecast says "expect very good surf conditions" and I can see why. The combined energy is a solid 952 (moderate), and you’ve got a clean 3ft SSW swell with a 16-second period. That long period is a proper groundswell, and it’ll wrap in nicely. The light 9 mph WNW wind is cross-off, keeping it clean. For a beginner spot like The Patch, this is the best bet of the whole run. Be aware, though, that long period swells can make the waves a bit more powerful and the sets more spaced out, so keep your eyes on the horizon.

After that, the surf looks like it'll be a bit too small or too messy for a few days, with a short period WNW swell popping up on the 31st and 1st of August. The morning of August 2nd has a decent little 3ft S swell with a 11-second period and light 6 mph cross-off wind. The combined energy is 285 (moderate), and it’s clean. It’s not a big day, but it’s a fun, easy option. The spot is fairly consistent, so it tends not to stay flat for long.

Keep in mind, The Patch is an exposed spot, and it’s a beginner-friendly break. Crowds are possible, especially on a good day, but it’s the kind of place where you can still find a wave. The best of the bunch is that Thursday the 30th morning, but it’s a long-range call, so take it with a pinch of salt. The second week fades out into mostly poor surf, so don’t hold your breath for the final days.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue night, min 12°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Fri night). Mainly fresh winds.

Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
0
1
1
0
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
3
2
2
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
SSW
11
1.4
SSW
9
0.7
SW
14
0.8
SSW
14
0.8
SSW
14
0.8
SSW
13
0.5
SW
26
0.7
SW
24
0.7
SW
24
0.6
SW
22
0.9
SW
21
0.8
SW
21
1
SW
20
0.9
SW
19
0.8
SW
19
0.8
SW
18
1
SW
18
1.1
SW
19
0.8
SW
19
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
302
301
194
264
257
229
329
546
541
386
763
543
731
627
520
442
616
791
478
Wind (km/h)
15
S
15
SSW
15
W
15
NW
20
WNW
25
WNW
20
WNW
20
WNW
25
WNW
20
NW
25
WNW
30
WNW
25
NW
20
WNW
30
WNW
25
NW
20
WNW
25
WNW
25
WNW
Wind State
on
on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
7:47AM0.77m
6:45PM1.23m
9:22AM0.80m
7:32PM1.24m
10:30AM0.86m
8:20PM1.25m
11:18AM0.91m
9:07PM1.26m
11:56AM0.95m
9:52PM1.29m
12:29PM0.98m
10:34PM1.31m
Low Tide
1:50AM0.17m
12:54PM0.49m
2:52AM0.11m
1:58PM0.56m
3:47AM0.05m
3:02PM0.61m
4:34AM0.00m
3:59PM0.62m
5:16AM-0.04m
4:47PM0.61m
5:53AM-0.06m
5:29PM0.60m
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:05
6:05
6:07
6:07
6:07
6:09
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
8:29
8:28
8:27
8:27
8:25
8:24
8:23
 mm
Temp °C
19
16
17
15
15
17
15
17
17
15
17
18
16
17
18
15
17
17
14
Feels °C
19
15
16
14
12
14
11
14
13
11
13
13
12
14
13
10
14
13
9
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the The Patch Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Patch provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Patch can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Patch surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Patch) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Patch may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

The Patch is 15 km (9 miles) from the city of Corte Madera. If you plan a vacation in Marin County, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corte Madera. Corte Madera has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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