Rockaway Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wettie, I’m gonna break down what’s happening for the next couple of weeks. Conditions are looking pretty rough for a while, but there’s a glimmer of hope way out in the forecast.

The real story here is Rockaway. It’s an exposed beach and reef setup, advanced level, and it’s consistently been getting swell, but man, the wind has been a cruel joke. We’re stuck in a long stretch of almost nothing but cross-onshore winds, choppy conditions, and poor surf until we get into the first week of September. The water temp is sitting at 63°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a 5°F anomaly, so you can probably leave the steamer at home.

From Thursday the 20th of August right through the end of the month, it’s a desert. There’s some swell, but it’s all under the knife of a cross-onshore breeze. The energy is weak to moderate – you’re looking at values between 128 and 211 for the combined swell energy, and that’s just not enough to fight the chop. Even when the swell bumps up to 5 ft on the 22nd, the wind is howling and the period is a short 6 seconds, so forget about a clean face. This is a kite surfer’s setup, not a surfer’s.

The best you can hope for in this first week is a marginal window on the morning of Sunday the 23rd of August. Light winds, 5 ft of NW swell at 8 seconds, but it’s still a cross-on breeze and the energy is only moderate (359). It’s a gamble.

Then we hit a real dead zone. From the 24th through the 31st, it’s nearly all cross-onshore wind, and the swell energy climbs into the strong range (530 to 956) but the period stays short at 7-8 seconds. The wind state is often “unknown” or choppy, and the surf is poor. The waves get big, up to 8 ft on the 31st, but with a strong onshore wind and short period, that’s a mess. Experts only, and even then, it’s not fun.

Now, here’s the good part. The light at the end of the tunnel. As we roll into September, things start to shift. On Wednesday the 2nd of September, the morning brings a glassy calm, with a light 5 ft NW swell and a 6-second period. The energy is moderate (355). It’s a small window of clean conditions, so it’s worth a look.

But the real standout is Friday the 4th of September. That morning, we’ve got a glassy, clean start with a 4 ft swell from the WNW, a period of 11 seconds, and moderate energy (521). That’s a proper groundswell, and with glassy conditions, the waves will have shape and power. There’s a very good chance of some clean, fun waves for the experienced surfers. The afternoon gets a bit messy with the cross-on wind, but that morning session is the best on offer in the whole 16-day window.

So, hold out for that first week of September. The wait is long, but the reward is real.

- Rusty

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