Rockaway Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the Rockaway stretch over the next couple of weeks. First thing you need to know: the water is sitting at 61° which is a good 5° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a real treat, feels like a tropical bath.

Right now, that's the bad news. The forecast is pretty grim for the next week. We’ve got a consistent NW swell rolling in, but it’s paired with a cross-on shore wind that’s just tearing it up. It's not gonna be surfable for a paddle. The wave energy is moderate (844), but the conditions are just poor. Honestly, for the next few days, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The wind is just too messy.

We drift through a couple of days with that same pattern – Thursday the 16th through to Sunday the 19th, the wind stays cross-on. The swell is a mix of short-period 8-second stuff and some longer period energy, but the quality is shot. The combined energy dips a bit (584) on Sunday, but it’s still a write-off.

Monday the 20th brings a slight change. The wind backs off to a light breeze and goes cross-shore. The swell is still small at 4 ft from the NW with a short 8-second period, and the energy is weak (282). It’s *marginal*. You might find a lumpy little shorebreak if you’re desperate, but it’s not something to get excited about.

From Tuesday the 21st right through to the morning of Thursday the 23rd, it’s flat out poor. The swell energy drops right off into double digits (42). It’s basically a lake out there.

Now, look ahead to Thursday the 23rd afternoon. The swell picks back up to 6 ft from the NW, but the period is a crappy 7 seconds and the wind is back onshore. The energy is moderate (377), but it’s not going to be clean. Another poor call.

The week of the 24th to the 27th is where things get interesting, but it’s a long way off. Friday the 24th has a weird one: a 2 ft swell from the SW with a very long 24-second period. The energy is solid (935), but that period is so long it’s going to break straight and weird at a beach break. Plus, it’s cross-on. Not the one.

The real standout, if you’re willing to wait, is Saturday the 25th. The morning shows a 3 ft SW groundswell with a 21-second period. The energy is very strong (1192), and while the wind is a gentle cross-on, it’s only a light breeze. It’s marked as marginal, but that long period energy, if it hits the sandbanks right, could offer some fun lines. The afternoon, however, turns nasty with a 8 ft NW windswell and strong cross-on wind. That afternoon is expert-only territory.

Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th morning are pumping with energy. We’re looking at 8 ft to 8 ft NW swell with an 8-9 second period. The energy is massive (1326-1525). But the wind is still cross-on. This is big, raw, and messy. For the average surfer, it’s a washing machine. For the experts, it’s a grunt-fest. The morning of the 27th is the only call that gets a score of 2 out of 10, which is the best of the whole run, but it’s still marginal.

The last few days of the month, the 28th through the 31st, drop back into a mix of smaller SW groundswells and the return of windswell. The morning of the 31st of July has a 6 ft NW swell with a 3 mph wind going cross-shore. The energy is moderate (460). That’s your best bet for cleanliness in the whole window, but the swell is short period and the wave comment is still marginal.

Honestly, it’s a tough run for Rockaway. The best on offer is a toss-up between the morning of the 27th of July for power, and the morning of the 31st of July for cleaner conditions. Neither is a screaming standout. The crowds at Rockaway can be an issue, so if you’re heading out on one of those marginal days, expect company.

Stay patient, keep checking the forecast, and don't force it.

Rusty.

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