Rockaway Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim around here. We’ve got a long stretch ahead with very little to get excited about. The first real bump of surf comes through on Tuesday the 11th, but it’s a messy one, not worth paddling out for. From there, we’re looking at a long, bleak run of marginal or poor conditions that stretches all the way into the second week. Honestly, there isn’t a single standout session in this whole 16-day window that I’d call a winner.

Let’s break it down. Tuesday the 11th sees a NW groundswell arrive at Rockaway, pushing 5 ft to 5 ft with a solid 9-second period. The combined swell energy is moderate, hitting 395. But the wind is a cross-shore SW breeze, and the water is way warmer than usual for this time of year at 64°. The report says “poor surf conditions” for both the morning and afternoon, so don’t bother.

Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th offer a little glimpse of hope with swell holding around 5 ft to 6 ft from the WNW. The combined energy climbs into the 500’s, which is decent. The morning winds on both days swing cross-offshore (clean), giving the surf a cleaner look. But it’s still being called “marginal” with questionable tide conditions. You could maybe find a fun one if you’re desperate, but it’s nothing special. Afternoons turn choppy and cross-shore, so your window is tight.

From Friday the 14th onward, it’s a slow bleed. Swell drops off hard, dipping below 3 ft, and the wind stays mostly cross-onshore or onshore. The combined energy plummets to as low as 36. We get a mix of short-period bump and weak long-period pulses from the SW, but nothing that lines up with the wind. There’s a period from the 15th to the 18th where the swell is tiny, under 3 ft, and the conditions are poor. By the 19th, we see a long-period SW groundswell showing up (over 15 seconds), but the wind is onshore and the waves are small. The energy is weak, barely cracking 100.

The second week stays flat and ugly. From the 21st through the 26th, the swell tries to lift a few times, with combined energy climbing back over 500 and even 800 on the morning of the 25th from a SW groundswell. But every single session is listed as “poor surf conditions.” The wind is almost always cross-onshore, and the quality just isn’t there. The biggest wave height we see in this stretch is 6 ft from the WNW on the 25th afternoon, but it’s blown out.

So, bottom line: there is no best session. The closest to a “maybe” would be the Wednesday morning of the 12th or Thursday morning of the 13th, when it’s clean and there’s a bit of size. But even that is a stretch. If you’re into kite surfing, those choppy, windy afternoons with moderate swell might look more interesting, but for a paddle surfer, this is a big ol’ blank run. It’s more normal for this area to have quiet spells like this, and forecasts can always change. Keep an eye on it, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

Read more