Rockaway Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a long 16-day window ahead, but don’t get your hopes up too high for the next week and a half. The pattern is dominated by onshore and cross-onshore winds and mostly poor surf conditions, with a few bright spots hiding way out at the end of the forecast.

The first real chance for a paddle comes on Tuesday morning, September 8th, at Rockaway. It’s a beach and reef setup, exposed to the NW swell. The water is a warm 63°—that’s 4° warmer than usual for this time of year, so you’ll be sweating in your wetsuit. Tuesday morning is glassy, with a light WSW breeze at 3 mph, and we’ve got a 4 ft NW swell running at 8 seconds. The combined energy is weak at 128. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. The wave size is fine for most, but with that short period, the shape won’t be anything special. It’s the best of a quiet start, but I wouldn’t call it a standout.

From Tuesday afternoon onward, things get ugly. Wednesday the 9th through most of the following week is a write-off. We’ve got a mix of cross-on winds and onshore winds, with swell heights jumping from 2 ft to over 7 ft, but the wind is trash. The combined swell energy gets moderate to strong (values between 217 and 872), but the wind is ruining every session. On Wednesday the 9th, there’s a 2 ft SW swell with a very long period of 19 seconds, but the wind is cross-shore, making it marginal. That long period is a tease – it’d be lovely at a point break, but at a beach and reef spot like this, it’ll break too straight. Thursday and Friday are more of the same: cross-on winds and choppy conditions. By Saturday the 12th, we’ve got a 7 ft NW swell on the morning, but with a 15 mph onshore wind, it’s a messy, blown-out mess. That size is pushing into expert territory, but the quality is poor. Kite surfers might be having a field day, but for paddle surfing, it’s a hard pass.

We go through a long gap of nearly two weeks here with no real recommendations. The wind stays stubbornly onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is either too weak or too messy. It’s a bleak stretch, honestly.

Finally, the light at the end of the tunnel. Sunday, September 20th, morning is the one to circle. Rockaway gets a clean window with a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the SSW at 9 mph. The swell is small, 2 ft from the SW, but with a very long period of 19 seconds. That long period means the wave quality will be much better than the size suggests – more energy, better shape, and longer lulls between sets. The combined energy reading is 677, which is moderate. This is the standout. It’s not big, so it’s good for all levels, and the crowd factor is only “sometimes” at Rockaway, so you might have a few out, but it won’t be a circus. That cross-offshore wind is the key – it’ll keep the faces clean. This is a promising, clean little session, and it’s the best on offer.

Monday the 21st morning is a close second, with a glassy WSW breeze at 3 mph and a 3 ft SW swell at 17 seconds. The energy is 546. It’s small and clean, but the wind is a light cross-on, so not quite as pristine as Sunday. Still, a good one to have on the radar.

From there, the rest of the month looks like a return to the same old story: onshore winds and poor conditions. Wednesday the 23rd has a 6 ft NW swell with a light wind, but the period is short at 8 seconds, and the afternoon turns to onshore again. Not worth the hype.

So, bottom line: the first two weeks are a total washout. The only real standout is Sunday morning, September 20th. It’s small, clean, and has that lovely long-period quality. The rest is for the windsurfers. Keep an eye on the forecasts, but right now, that one session is the only one I’d set an alarm for.

Rusty.

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