Rockaway Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. We’re looking at the Rockaway, and the forecast has a long run of surf, but the early part is more frustration than fun. The swell is coming from the NW, which is what this exposed beach and reef setup likes, but the wind is stubbornly cross-onshore for almost the whole first week and a half. That’ll make for lumpy, wind-chopped waves.

The water temperature is 61°F, which is way warmer than normal for this time of year – a solid 5°F above the average, so that’s a nice warming trend.

The main story is that for days on end we get building swell (from 3 ft up to 7 ft) but the wind keeps ruining the surface. The combined wave energy starts weak (194) on Saturday the 11th, then climbs into moderate territory (322) on Sunday the 12th, and hits strong levels (up to 580) by Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th. But none of that matters much with the wind as it is.

Thursday the 16th brings a 10 ft swell from the NW, with a period of only 8 seconds, and an onshore wind of 15 mph. The combined energy reads a very strong 1310. That’s going to be a washing machine. At that size and with that wind, you’re better off with a kite than a paddle.

The turnaround comes late in the window. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th of July are the real standouts. A long-period groundswell from the SW arrives on the 25th with a 21-second period and swell heights around 4 ft. Wind is still cross-on, but the combined energy is very strong (1310). That kind of period (over 15 seconds) is prime for the reef – it’ll produce proper, lined-up waves. Just be aware that at a beach-and-reef break like this, a very long period swell can sometimes close out sections if the bank isn’t right.

On Sunday the 26th, the SW swell holds at 3 ft to 4 ft with a 19-second period and the combined energy is very strong (1510). The wind is a light cross-on from the W and WSW. It’s not pure offshore, so it won’t be clean as glass, but this is leagues ahead of the rest of the forecast.

So, if you’re picking a time to go, it’s those last two days: Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th of July. That’s where the quality and energy finally align. It’s far out, so keep an eye on the updates, but that’s the only real surf of note in this whole run. The first week is mostly a write-off, with a couple of marginal windows on Sunday morning the 12th, Monday the 13th, and Tuesday the 14th mornings – enough for a splash but nothing you’d talk about. The crowds that *sometimes* show up won’t be having fun in the early mess.

This is Rusty, out.

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