Rockaway Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it, folks. Rusty here, looking over the next couple of weeks for Rockaway.

Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day spread, it’s a pretty grim run for paddle surfing. The data shows a whole lot of poor surf conditions with almost no decent recommendations at all. You’ll see a pattern of onshore and cross-onshore winds chopping up whatever swell is out there. There is one standout that looks interesting, but it's a long way off. For the most part, expect a lot of flat, messy, and unrideable days through the first week and a half.

Right now, starting from Thursday the 13th of August, the water temperature is a notable 64°F, which is 6°F warmer than normal for this time of year—very unusual and will feel like a warm bath. The surf is a no-go though, with a weak cross-shore wind and only 5ft of poorly organized NW swell (combined energy of 461). It's just poor.

Friday the 14th through most of the following week is much the same story. We see small bumps of swell, like 2ft on Friday morning with a long 15-second period, but the wind is wrong and the conditions are reported as marginal at best. The combined energy stays moderate, like 317 on Friday morning, but it’s all wasted. Saturday the 15th has a tiny 2ft NW swell with a weak period of 7 seconds and barely any energy (44). Sunday and Monday see a bit more size, up to 3ft, but again, the cross-onshore breeze ruins it.

Around Tuesday the 18th of August, the swell starts to pick up to 6ft and 6ft, but it comes with strong onshore winds straight out of the WNW at 12-19 mph, making it a complete mess. The same goes for Wednesday the 19th, with 7ft of NW swell but still onshore winds and a combined energy of 622. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than anything for a paddle surfer.

The pattern doesn’t really change until we get a little glimmer on Thursday morning, the 20th of August. We see a 6ft WNW swell with a combined energy of 502, and the wind swings light SW at 6 mph, making it cross-shore. The data calls it marginal, but it’s the best you’ll find in the first week. Still, it's not a standout.

From there, the rest of August stays poor until we get all the way to the end of the outlook. Friday the 28th of August is the only true standout in the whole 16 days. It’s far out, so treat it as promising but not locked in. On that Friday morning, Rockaway could see a solid 8ft NW swell hitting from the optimum direction with a very strong combined energy of 1523. The period is a decent 9 seconds, and critically, the wind is light and cross-onshore from the W at only 6 mph. This is expert-level size—over 8ft is for experienced surfers only—and it could clean up nicely in the morning. The crowds might be a factor as they are sometimes around, but this is the closest we get to a good wave. The afternoon looks like it drops off quickly with the wind picking up.

So, bottom line: don't hold your breath until that last Friday morning on the 28th of August, and even then, keep your expectations in check with it being so far out.

Stay salty.
Rusty

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