Rockaway Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty.

Look, I’ve got to be straight with you—this 16-day run for Rockaway is a rough one. We’re looking at a solid stretch of days where the wind just won’t give us a break, and the surf quality is going to take a beating because of it. The swell is there at times, but it’s messy, and the cross-onshore flow is going to chop it all up. It’s not going to be a pretty picture for paddling out on a proper board.

We start with a bit of a whimper. The first few days are poor. Friday afternoon has a small 2ft SW swell, but the wind is cross-on and it’s choppy. The energy is weak to moderate, but it’s not doing anything for us. Saturday and Sunday are the same story—small, beaten-up waves, all cross-onshore and messy. The combined energy stays in the weak to moderate range, so there’s just no punch. It’s a frustrating start.

The water temp is sitting at 62°F, which is 4°F warmer than normal for this time of year—that’s notable, and you’ll feel it in a thinner suit. But the waves are the opposite of warm and inviting.

We get a little more size from Monday the 18th into the middle of the week, with swell heights reaching 5ft to 6ft by Wednesday. The periods are short, mostly around 7-8 seconds, meaning it’s a weak, crumbly windswell, not a proper groundswell. The energy jumps into the moderate range, but the cross-onshore wind keeps ruining it. This is still poor surf.

Now, there’s a moment on Thursday the 20th where things might just flirt with rideable. The swell kicks up slightly to 8ft, and the energy is strong, but it’s short-period and the wind is still cross-on. The file calls it “marginal” at best. That’s about as good as it gets for a while. You’d need to pick your moment and be in the right spot, but it’s a gamble.

The rest of the week into the next is more of the same. It’s a long stretch of onshores and chop. We see another bump around the 28th and 29th, with 6ft swells and stronger energy readings, and the wind is lighter. But it’s still cross-on, and the period is short. It’s marginal, not magical. This is about the most promising window, but I wouldn’t be booking the day off work for it.

Here’s the thing about Rockaway (New York): it’s a beach and reef setup, so a short-period swell like this is going to be a jumbled mess. The longer period swells that would actually shape it up aren’t showing in this wind. With the persistent cross-onshore wind and messy conditions, honestly, you might be better off looking at the kites and foils than the longboard. This looks more like a wind sport forecast than a surf forecast.

In the second week, just focus on those mornings with lighter winds—it’s a small chance, but there’s always a hope. The standouts, if you can call them that, are the 20th and the 28th-29th, but they’re far from guarantees. Keep it in perspective; this is a poor run.

Signing off,
Rusty

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