Fenway Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and I’m lookin’ at the next 16 days for Fenway Beach. I gotta be straight with you—this stretch is a tough one. There’s a big ol’ gap of nothing at the start, and honestly, the forecast is pretty grim overall.

First up, the water at Fenway Beach is running about 66°, which is a full 4° colder than normal for this time of year. That’s a notable chill, so you’ll want a good thick wetsuit if you’re even gonna bother paddling out.

Now, the first chance at any surf at all shows up on Thursday, July 23rd. The morning brings a 5 ft swell from the south, with a period of 8 seconds. That’s a short-period windswell, not much grunt behind it. The combined energy is only 273 (moderate), but the wind is light from the north-northeast, blowing cross-offshore. That means the surface will be clean. The catch? The break is a breakwater setup, and it’s fairly exposed, but the swell direction from the south isn’t what it really wants—it prefers SE. Still, it’s the only window that’s even close to okay. The surf report says “expect good surf conditions,” but with a 5 ft swell and a short period, it’s gonna be a bit crumbly. It’s not a standout, but it’s the best on offer in the first week.

After that, it’s a long, sad run. From Thursday afternoon all the way through to the end of July, the waves drop off hard. We’re talking 2 ft to 4 ft, mostly onshore or cross-onshore winds, and the combined energy dives into the weak two-digit numbers. It’s mostly poor surf conditions, choppy, and just not worth the paddle. The wind is from the south or southwest most of the time, blowing straight onto the beach, trashing any chance of a clean wave.

There’s a little blip on Saturday, August 1st. The afternoon sees a 5 ft south swell, 8-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 578 (moderate). The wind is light from the south, but it’s blowing onshore, so it’s a bit messy. The report calls it “marginal” and gives it a 1 out of 10. It’s surfable, but it’s ugly. The swell is over 5 ft, so it might be a bit much for beginners, but it’s not big enough to scare off the experienced crew. Still, with the onshore wind, it’s a real slog.

Then we roll into the second week. Monday, August 3rd, the morning shows a 4 ft swell from the SSE, 8-second period, with a light east-northeast wind blowing cross-offshore. Clean again. The combined energy is 190 (moderate). The report says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It’s not great, but it’s clean. That’s about as good as it gets in this whole 16-day window.

For the rest of the second week, it’s back to tiny, weak, and choppy. The combined energy drops into the double digits again, and the wind is mostly onshore or cross-shore. The only real standout… and I’m stretching here… is that Thursday morning, July 23rd. It’s the only time the stars align for a clean, surfable wave, even if it’s short-period and a bit weak. Everything else is a write-off.

If you’re a kitesurfer, there’s some decent wind and swell on the 28th of July, with a 6 ft SSW swell and 19 mph winds, but for paddle surfing, it’s just a choppy, blown-out mess. Not your day.

So, bottom line: if you’re desperate, hit the water on the morning of Thursday, July 23rd, or maybe the morning of Monday, August 3rd. Otherwise, the forecast is a long, flat, and choppy bore. Sometimes it’s like this, but it won’t stay poor forever.

Rusty.

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