Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, Rusty here with a look at what’s on offer. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a pretty grim stretch ahead for Blackies. We’ve got a long, drawn-out run of marginal to poor conditions, so don’t get your hopes up for any kind of classic session.

The main takeaway is that the swell is almost always coming from the S or SSW, pushing in around 2 to 4 feet, but the problem is the wind. It’s stuck in a cross-onshore or onshore pattern for most of the forecast, killing any chance of the waves holding a decent shape. The water is a notable 73°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a solid 6° above average.

The only time we see a glimmer of hope is on Wednesday the 26th of August. The morning swell bumps up to 4 feet from the S, with a period of 13 seconds, and combined wave energy sitting at a moderate 706. But even then, the wind is cross-onshore, leaving the surface with small wind ripples. It’s still only a marginal call. Thursday morning the 27th has a similar 4 feet from the S, but again, the onshore wind and a score that says "poor" mean it’s not worth paddling out for.

Saturday the 29th of August shows a slight pulse, with the morning seeing 3 feet from the SSW and a long 17-second period, giving a combined energy of 554. The wind is light cross-onshore, so it’s clean-ish, but the wave state is described as marginal at best. The afternoon picks up a bit to 4 feet from the SSW, but the wind swings onshore, and it’s not going to hold up.

Really, there are no standout days here. The pattern of onshore wind and mediocre swell just won’t let up. You might get a few knee-to-waist high waves that are workable if you’re desperate, but the quality is going to be frustrating.

For the first week into September, it’s more of the same. Thursday the 3rd of September has a 3 feet SSW swell with a very long 20-second period, and combined energy of 398, but the afternoon brings a moderate cross-onshore breeze that chops it up. Friday the 4th of September afternoon looks like the biggest pulse of the whole outlook: 4 feet from the SSW, 17 seconds, and a combined energy of 839. It’s the strongest energy we see, but the wind is still cross-onshore. It’s only a marginal call, so you could gamble, but don’t expect perfection.

Honestly, there’s a solid gap of days where the conditions are just poor or marginal. Don’t bother planning around it. The break is inconsistent anyway, and this run of weather is doing it no favours. If the swell was bigger and the wind was offshore, the setup would look more interesting for kite surfing than paddling.

Keep an eye on the charts, but for now, leave the board in the car.

Stay patient.

Rusty

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