Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this next 16-day stretch for our local patch is a tough one. We’ve got a real dry spell on our hands, so don’t be rushing to wax up just yet.

The only spot on the radar is Blackies, and it’s a classic case of "almost but not quite." The swell is there, but the conditions just aren’t playing ball. We’re looking at a solid week and a half of mostly poor surf, with the wind messing things up. The water is sitting at 73.0°F, which is a whopping 6.3°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that's really unusual, almost like a summer holdover.

The first real flash of anything worth paddling out for appears on Friday morning, August 7th. Blackies is seeing a tiny 1.6ft SSW groundswell, with a very long period of 19 seconds. That long period brings some serious energy, but the combined energy is only 330 (moderate). The issue is the wind is light and cross-on, and the forecast is calling it "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions." The long period will make it look better than it probably is, but it’s not a goer.

From there, it’s a grim run. Saturday the 8th through Sunday the 16th of August is a write-off. The wind is either cross-on or onshore, and the wave comment is consistently "poor surf conditions." The swell bumps up a bit around the 15th and 16th, hitting 3.3ft from the SSW, but with a moderate breeze on it, it’s just a choppy mess. The energy is moderate (571 on the 15th afternoon), but it’s wasted.

The only glimmer of hope comes way out at the end of the run. On Friday, August 21st, and Saturday, August 22nd, the morning sessions at Blackies are flagged as "marginal." The swell is 2.6ft to 3.0ft from the SSW, period is 15-16 seconds, and the wind is light and offshore (from the SW and WSW). The combined energy on the 22nd morning is a solid 494 (moderate). This is the one to watch. The offshore wind will make it clean, and for a spot that’s inconsistent, that’s a big deal. Crowds are possible at Blackies, so expect some company if it does come together.

If you’re a kiter, this whole stretch might look more interesting than it does for a paddle surfer, especially those afternoons with the moderate breeze. For the rest of us, keep your eyes on that Saturday morning, August 22nd. It’s a long way out, but it’s the only real standout on the board.

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