Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with you straight up – this 16-day window for Blackies is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, messy, and mostly poor surf. The swell is tiny, the wind is all over the shop, and the quality just isn’t there for most of the run. There’s a glimmer of something, but it’s a real patience test. Let’s break it down.

Monday the 10th kicks it off with a clean-ish morning, but the swell is a weak 2 ft from the SSW with a long 14-second period, and the combined energy is only 229. That’s weak, and the “poor surf conditions” label is spot on. It’s just not happening. Monday afternoon, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday all stay in the same boat – tiny, onshore or cross-onshore winds, and the energy is barely tickling the 200-300 mark. Choppy and small.

Friday the 14th morning is the first time we see a “marginal” call, with a 2 ft SSW swell but a very long 19-second period. The combined energy jumps to 388, which is moderate, but that long period will make it break straight and fat at a spot like Blackies. The wind is light offshore though, which is a plus, but it’s still a marginal day at best. Friday afternoon goes back to poor.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th is the same story. Saturday the 15th has a better 3 ft to 3 ft swell, but it’s cross-on and the energy is 477-574. That’s the most energy we’ll see, and the best wave size is on Saturday afternoon with 3 ft from the SSW, but the wind is cross-on from the WNW. It’s still marginal, not clean. Sunday the 16th is back to poor.

The second week is a write-off. From Monday the 17th all the way through to Tuesday the 25th, the swell stays tiny, between 1 ft and 3 ft, with weak energy readings (199-391). The wind is almost always cross-on or onshore, and the labels are “poor surf conditions” day after day. There’s a brief moment on Monday the 24th morning where it’s marginal again – 2 ft SW swell, 18-second period, light offshore wind and 313 energy – but it’s still tiny and not a stand-out.

So, the only standout, if you can call it that, is Saturday the 15th afternoon. That’s the biggest swell we get, at 3 ft from the SSW, with moderate energy. But the wind is cross-on, so it won’t be clean. It’s the best of a bad lot, and that’s saying something. The rest of the window is a blank run. It’s one of those times where the ocean just isn’t cooperating. Forecasts can change, but for now, don’t expect much.

Rusty.

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