Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for any real surf action at Blackies. We've got a solid run of small, weak swell and onshore winds that are just going to keep things messy. It’s a tough stretch, and I’m not seeing much to get excited about for a while.

Looking at the opening days, Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are basically flat. We’re talking tiny 0.4m to 0.5m of SW swell, with a long 18-second period, but the wind is cross-onshore and the surf is just going to be chopped up. The energy is weak (200 to 254 in the combined energy). It’s not going to be worth paddling out for anything more than a float.

The middle of the week, the 16th through the 19th, sees a slight bump in size to 0.7m to 0.8m, but the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, and it’s still messy. The period drops to 15 to 18 seconds, which is decent, but the quality is poor. On the 17th and 18th, there are a few marginal windows when the wind lightens, but it’s still mostly cross-onshore chop.

The following weekend, the 20th and 21st, the swell holds around 0.8m to 0.9m, and the energy gets a bit more punch (up to 477), but it's still a cross-onshore mess. It’s not the kind of surf that will have you rushing down there. The water is a warm 23°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year—that's a nice bonus.

Things start to fade again from the 22nd through the 24th, dropping back to 0.7m to 0.8m with the period shrinking to 14-16 seconds. The wind stays on the bad side of things, keeping it choppy and weak.

The last few days of the forecast, from the 25th through the 29th, are more of the same. We’re looking at 0.5m to 0.7m of weak, short-period swell and constant onshore flow. There’s one day, the 29th, where the wind is light, but the swell is only 0.5m and it's still cross-onshore. It’s just not happening.

Honestly, for the next 16 days, Blackies is not the spot. The break is inconsistent, and with this small, short-period swell and prevailing onshore winds, it’s going to be a lot of work for not much reward. There are no standouts, no epic windows. If you’re desperate, maybe a dawn paddle on the 17th or 18th when the wind is lightest, but don’t expect much. This looks like a good stretch to work on your pool tan or get some other things done. The surf will come back eventually—it always does. But for now, I’d sit this one out.

Rusty

Read more