Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. The outlook for Blackies is a bit of a slow burn. The first few days are pretty ordinary, with a mix of onshore winds and small, unappealing swell. Nothing really gets going until the start of the second week, but then there’s a window of proper, solid surf. The pattern is a long wait for a short, punchy payoff.

We kick off on Monday, 31st August, with clean skies but a SSW wind blowing straight onshore and a weak 3 ft swell from the south-southwest (combined wave energy 436). The surf is poor and not worth the paddle out. The same story rolls through Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, with small swells and cross-onshore winds keeping things messy. You’ll see a brief flicker on Wednesday, 2nd September morning, with a 2 ft swell from the southwest but a very long 16-second period—that’s a long-period groundswell, but the wind is onshore and the size is tiny, so it’s marginal at best. Friday and Saturday see the swell slowly bump up to 3 ft and 3 ft, but it’s still cross-onshore and the conditions are only just scraping into "marginal" territory. It’s a frustrating stretch of flat, choppy days with no real quality.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Sunday, 6th September, is the standout. Overnight, the swell jumps to 6 ft from the south—a solid, long-period 15-second groundswell with combined wave energy roaring up to 1931. The morning sees a light east wind, cross-offshore, and the wave comment says *excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers*. The break is clean. By the afternoon, the wind swings to a moderate offshore from the north-northeast, gusting 15 mph, and the swell steadies at 7 ft. This is serious, powerful surf. Keep in mind, over 8 ft it’s expert territory, but this 7 ft from the south with offshore wind is a legit, charging session. Blackies is a beach and point setup, and with that long-period swell, it’ll be offering up clean, lined-up waves. The crowd factor is "often," so expect a few others out for this one. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

But the window closes fast. Monday, 7th September, is a write-off. A near-gale from the south-southeast at 31 mph blows the 7 ft swell into a total mess—poor surf with crossing waves. The following days drop back to small, weak swells and cross-onshore winds. Tuesday, 8th September, has a 5 ft swell but it’s short-period (10 seconds) and choppy. From Wednesday, 9th September, through to the end of the forecast on 15th September, it’s back to tiny 1 ft to 3 ft swells, mostly from the southwest with long periods but no size or clean wind. The combined energy is weak, sitting between 148 and 399. It’s a flat, frustrating end to the run.

So, the one true standout is Sunday, 6th September. The morning with the light easterly cross-offshore wind is the pick for the cleanest conditions, but the afternoon offshore wind is also a gem. If you’re an experienced surfer, lock in that day. The rest of the 16-day window is a long dry spell, especially after that Monday gale goes through. For the beginners, this one’s a pass.

Rusty.

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