Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m gonna level with ya. It’s a bit of a tough stretch for Blackies. I see some swell rolling in, but the wind and conditions just ain’t cooperating for a decent paddle. Let’s run through it.

The whole 16-day window kicks off on Friday the 11th with a small 3 ft swell out of the southwest, period at 16 seconds – that’s some solid groundswell energy (389). But the wind is coming from the SSE at 9 mph, blowing cross, and it’s bringing a slight cross-chop. The water’s sitting at 71°, which is 4° warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s notably warm, but the surf report is calling it poor. I can’t recommend it for a proper session.

From the start right through the morning of Saturday the 26th, it’s a long, frustrating gap of mostly poor surf. The swell stays small – between 1 ft and 3 ft – and the wind is almost always cross-onshore or onshore. Even when the swell energy climbs to moderate levels like 492 on the 20th, or 711 on the 21st, the wind messes it up. That 21st afternoon sees 3 ft of SW swell with 17-second period and energy hitting 711 (moderate), but it’s a gentle cross-onshore breeze at 9 mph, and the surf is just poor.

There’s a handful of mornings (like the 18th, 19th, 20th, 23rd, and 24th) where the forecast only gives a 1 out of 10 and calls it “marginal.” On the 19th morning, winds are light and onshore from the WSW at 3 mph, with 2 ft of 18-second SW groundswell (365 energy). That could be glassy, but the wave size is tiny and it’s still rated poor. It’s just not enough to get excited about.

The best of a bad bunch? Honestly, if I had to pick one, I’d point to that Friday the 18th morning (around a week from now). You’ve got 2 ft of SW swell, 19-second period – that’s long-period groundswell (408 energy). The wind is light at 6 mph from the west, cross-onshore, with just small wind ripples. It’s still only marginal, but that’s the cleanest look in the whole run for a long-period swell at a beach and point break. Keep in mind, that long period might make it break a bit straight at a beach setup, but the point section could offer something. Crowds are often around Blackies, so you might have company.

Bottom line: Blackies is inconsistent at the best of times, and this run is a reminder of that. There’s no standout surf here. The swell is there, but the wind keeps killing any real quality. If you’re desperate, aim for that 18th morning, but keep your expectations low. It’s a blank run – not unusual for the area when the wind doesn’t play ball.

Rusty

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