Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let me lay it out plain—this 16-day stretch for Blackies is pretty grim. The swell is tiny, the winds are mostly messy, and we’ve got a long stretch of nothing before anything even looks rideable.

Starting on Tuesday the 15th, we’ve got a tiny 1ft SSW swell, but it’s got a 20-second period that’s almost frustrating because that long groundswell energy (combined energy 254) just gets wasted on soft, sloppy conditions. The water’s a warm 73°F, which is a massive 6°F warmer than normal for the season—very unusual. From there, it’s all downhill. Wednesday the 16th through Sunday the 27th is nothing but “poor surf conditions” and “marginal” calls. Swells sit between 2ft and 3ft, mostly from the SSW or SW, with periods dropping from 17 seconds down to 12. The combined energy bounces around 213 to 542—moderate stuff—but it doesn’t matter because the wind is almost always cross-on or onshore at 6 to 12 mph from WSW, W, or SSW. It’s choppy, wind-rippled, and just ugly.

But I’ve got one tiny highlight. Monday the 28th—the morning shows a 2ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, combined energy of 299 (moderate), and the wind is clean and cross-offshore from the NNW at just 6 mph. That’s the only time the forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” The score is a 2 for that window. But look, 2ft is tiny, and Blackies is inconsistent and rarely breaks—so when it does line up, it’s a rare thing. Grab a longboard that morning. The afternoon ruins it with a 12 mph W cross-on and choppy surf.

Tuesday the 29th and Wednesday the 30th fall straight back to marginal or poor conditions. So you’re looking at a 12-day gap of nothing, then one morning that might be worth a paddle if you’re keen. Because Blackies is inconsistent, a blank run like this is pretty much the norm here. Forecasts can change, but for now, there’s only that Monday the 28th morning that’s even worth talking about.

Rusty, signing off.

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