Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what Blackies has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. I’ll level with you straight up – this is one of those outlooks where patience is going to be tested. We’ve got a long, barren stretch ahead before anything worth paddling out for shows up.

Right now, and for many days to come, it’s a tough scene. The surf is small, the wind is almost always cross-onshore or onshore, and the quality is shot. From Sunday the 12th of July right through to Wednesday the 23rd, it’s a grim run. We’re looking at a solid 11-day gap where the conditions are just not cooperating. Swell heights are mostly below 3 ft, period is all over the place, and the combined swell energy is low, generally under 400 (weak energy). The morning of the 12th offers a 3 ft SSW swell at 14 seconds, but with a SW wind blowing onshore, it’s messy. The water temperature is sitting at 67°, which is about 2° warmer than normal for this time of year – a bit mild but nothing too wild.

After that, it’s just day after day of “poor surf conditions” or “marginal” calls. Monday the 13th, Tuesday the 14th – it’s all small, weak, and choppy. The wind is never truly offshore for long, staying on the cross or onshore train. Even when there’s a bump in energy on Saturday the 18th with a 4 ft S swell pushing the energy to 798 (moderate energy), the wind is a moderate cross-onshore, ruining any chance of clean faces.

Then, around Thursday the 23rd of July, things finally start to look a bit more interesting, though still not perfect. We get a 6 ft S swell rolling in with a 14-second period, and the combined energy jumps way up to 1550 (strong energy). That’s the biggest pulse of the forecast. The direction is solid from the S, and with the optimum swell being from the W for Blackies, this is a fair match. The catch? The wind is still cross-onshore in the afternoon, but the morning light breeze from the SW is onshore. It’s rated as marginal, not clean. That said, this is the standout event of the whole 16-day window. At 6 ft, it’s getting a bit big for beginners, but for anyone comfortable, it’s the best shot you have. Friday the 24th holds similar size at 6 ft, still on the bigger side, but again the wind stays messy.

Overall, Blackies is an inconsistent, rarely breaking spot, and this outlook reflects that. It’s a long wait for one solid pulse right at the end. Keep an eye on it, but don’t hold your breath for the first two weeks.

Rusty.

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