Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the forecast for Blackies. Straight up, I’m going to be honest with you – this outlook is a grind. We’re looking at a 16-day window, but there’s a real long stretch of pretty average conditions here.

The overall pattern is weak, with a lot of onshore or cross-onshore breezes messing up what little swell we get. The water temp is sitting at 71°, which is a whopping 5° warmer than usual for this time of year – you’ll feel that bathwater, but it’s about the only thing that’s firing.

We start off on Thursday the 23rd with some clouds and a cross-on WSW wind at 9 mph. There’s a small 2 ft SSW swell, but it’s a short period of 14 seconds, and the combined energy is weak (358). The wind is just chopping it up, so it’s poor.

Friday the 24th looks similar – clearer skies, but that same 9 mph cross-on wind from the south. The swell drops to 2 ft and 2 ft through the day with a longer period of 24 seconds, giving a moderate energy (740). But with that cross-on wind, it’s still marginal at best.

Saturday the 25th is a bit of a tease. We get a 3 ft SW swell with a 21-second period, and the wind switches to a light onshore breeze at 6 mph from the SSW in the morning. The energy is moderate (745). The wind is offshore, so it could be clean, but the swell is small and the tide might be a factor. It’s a marginal one, but probably the best of a bad bunch early on.

Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th are a repeat of the same story – small SSW swell, around 3 ft to 4 ft, with periods between 18 and 19 seconds. The wind is light and cross-on, so you’ll get some ripples on the surface. The energy is moderate, peaking at 880 on Monday morning. Still, the quality isn’t there for a standout session.

Tuesday the 28th sees a slight bump in swell to 4 ft from the SSW, with a 17-second period. The wind tries to go onshore in the afternoon, but the morning is light cross-on. Energy is getting up there (954), but it’s still a marginal call.

Then we hit a real lull. From Wednesday the 29th all the way through to Wednesday the 5th of August, it’s a dead zone. The swell drops to 1 ft to 2 ft, the periods are all over the place, and the combined energy is weak (under 240). The wind is mostly light and onshore, but with no swell, it doesn’t matter. There’s a solid gap of about a week with nothing worth paddling out for.

There is one small glimmer right at the end of the first week. On Friday the 31st of July, a new S swell pushes in at 6 ft with a 14-second period. The energy jumps to 1163 (strong), but the wind is cross-on from the WSW at 6 mph. It’s still marginal and a bit lumpy. That carries into Saturday the 1st of August, with the same 6 ft S swell, but the wind stays cross-on. It’s not clean, but it’s the biggest swell of the window.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. Sunday the 2nd of August has a 4 ft swell, but it’s fading fast, and by Monday the 3rd, we’re back to 2 ft and weak energy.

So, what’s the call? The best on offer is a toss-up between the clean-ish but small Saturday morning the 25th, and the bigger but messier Friday the 31st. If you’re desperate for a wave, the Saturday morning might be the pick for the cleanest conditions, but don’t expect much. The bigger swell on the 31st has more power, but the wind will make it a battle. This is a stretch where you’d be better off checking the forecast again in a few days.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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