Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with ya – this stretch is shaping up as a long, frustrating wait. We’re looking at a solid run of poor conditions right through, with only a flicker of something better in the second week. There’s a big gap of about ten days where I just can’t recommend paddling out.

Right now, for the morning of Friday the 14th, we’ve got tiny 2ft SSW swell at a very long 19 seconds. The combined energy is weak (403). The wind is a light cross-onshore, so the surface is messy with small wind ripples. Water temp is 72°, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year, but that’s about the only standout. The setup at Blackies (a beach and point) is inconsistent at the best of times, and the forecast shows poor surf conditions.

That pattern holds through Friday afternoon and all weekend. Swell stays small, between 2ft and 3ft, and the wind is either a light or gentle cross-onshore. By Sunday afternoon the breeze picks up to a moderate cross-onshore, making it choppy. Nothing to get excited about.

The first real flicker comes on Monday the 17th morning – we get a slight offshore from the SW and 3ft SSW swell, period 14 seconds, with a combined energy of 315. The score is marginal at best, with questionable tide. It’s still not worth paddling out for.

Tuesday the 18th through to Sunday the 23rd stay marginal or poor. Swell drops to 1ft to 2ft, mostly cross-on wind, and the energy is weak. The wind switches around, but it’s never clean. The morning of Sunday the 23rd sees a tiny 1ft SSW swell with a long 16-second period, but cross-on wind kills it.

Now, the only real potential I can see is towards the end of the run. On Tuesday the 25th morning, we get a 3ft S swell with a 19-second period – that’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 743, moderate. Wind is a light cross-onshore, so it’s still not perfect. But then Tuesday afternoon the swell jumps to 7ft from the S, period 16 seconds, and the energy rockets to 2066 – that’s strong. The wind goes offshore from the SSW, which is good. It’s a marginal forecast, but that’s the best window we’ve got. At 7ft, that’s expert territory, especially at an inconsistent spot like Blackies. The long period from the S might make it break a bit straight at the beach section, but the point might handle it better.

Wednesday the 26th holds 7ft in the morning and 6ft in the afternoon, both S swell, but the wind stays cross-on or onshore, so it’ll be a bit of a battle. Still, the energy is very strong – 1522 and 1214. For experts only.

After that, Thursday the 27th drops to 5ft, and by the 28th we’re back to 2ft. So that window around Tuesday the 25th afternoon into Wednesday the 26th morning is the only real chance for a decent wave, but it’s for experienced surfers only and the consistency is not guaranteed. Crowds are likely at Blackies when it’s on.

Signing off, Rusty.

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