Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for the next stretch.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – it's a tough outlook. The whole 16-day window is a real mixed bag of 'poor surf conditions' and 'marginal' calls. There isn't a single standout session that's going to have you phoning in sick. The pattern is pretty flat and uninspiring for the most part, with a few small pulses of energy that just don't link up with clean winds.

We start off with a little bit of hope around Friday the 10th. Blackies is seeing a modest 3ft swell from the SSW, with a decent 15-second period showing some groundswell character. The combined energy is moderate at 372, but the problem is the wind. It's a cross-onshore breeze from the south at 9 mph, which is just going to mess up the surface. It's a beach and point setup, so that long-period swell could be a bit too straight for the beach break section, but the point might offer something. The water temp is 66°F, which is about normal for the time of year.

This same tune plays out through the weekend and into the next week. The swell hangs around 3ft to 3ft through the 11th and 12th, but it's the same story – cross-onshore or onshore winds keeping things choppy. The energy readings sit in the 275 to 350 range, which is moderate but poorly directed.

By Monday the 13th, we scrape a 1/10 rating with a "marginal" tag. The swell is still 3ft, but the period drops to 13 seconds, and it's still a light onshore wind. It's not going to be a write-off, but you'd be scratching for a bump.

Then there's a real gap from about Tuesday the 14th through to the 25th of July. The swell drops right off to 1ft or 2ft for days on end, with very long periods (18-21 seconds) on some of those tiny pulses. That's a lot of energy (up to 426), but with no size, it's just a washing machine. The wind is mostly cross-onshore, so it's a no-go.

The only flicker of something different comes right at the end on Saturday the 25th. The afternoon shows a spike to 5ft from the S, with a period of 13 seconds and a combined energy of 842, which is a solid moderate-to-strong pulse. But the wind is a moderate cross-onshore at 12 mph from the west, which is going to make it a choppy, blown-out mess. It's a poor surf condition call.

So, the honest truth is there's nothing to get excited about. If you're desperate, Monday the 13th morning is your best bet with the lightest wind and still a bit of swell, but it's a gamble. Don't hold your breath for the rest of it.

Rusty.

Read more