Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I've had a good look at the charts for the next couple of weeks, and I gotta be straight with you – it's a tough stretch for a wave at Blackies. This is a fairly exposed beach and point break that handles swell from the west best, but we're just not getting the right combo of size and clean conditions. The water is sitting at 69°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that's about the only bit of good news.

We've got a real dry spell to start. The first week is pretty much a write-off. From Tuesday the 14th through to the end of the week, we're looking at tiny, weak swell – mostly around 1ft to 3ft – with a light to moderate cross-onshore wind messing up any chance of a clean face. The wave energy is weak to moderate, with readings like 201 and 245, but it doesn't matter because the "poor surf conditions" tag is on every single session. The wind is just never doing us any favours.

We get a bit of a pulse from the 21st of July onwards, with some of that SW groundswell pushing in. The height bumps up to around 4ft on the Tuesday morning, and the combined energy climbs to 584, which is a solid step up. The wind is lighter, too, but it's still cross-onshore, and the forecast is calling it "marginal" at best. It's a tease, not a green light.

Now, the real standout in this whole outlook is the weekend of the 24th and 25th of July. We're looking at a proper pulse of S swell arriving – 6ft on the Friday and Saturday, and 5ft on the Sunday. The energy numbers are massive: 1415 on Friday morning, 1483 on Saturday morning – that's strong wave energy, no doubt about it. The period is a solid 13 to 14 seconds, so there's some real power behind it. The wind is light and cross-onshore, so while it's not perfect, it's the cleanest we're going to see. This is expert territory, though, at over 5ft, and it's a S swell, which isn't the optimum W direction for Blackies, but the size and energy will have it breaking. It's still only a "marginal" call, but out of this whole 16-day window, this is the best on offer. The Saturday morning looks the pick of the bunch.

The last few days of July fade back into smaller, cleaner but weak swell with cross-onshore winds. After that strong pulse, the 26th and 27th show dropping size – 3ft to 3ft – with some SW wind, but it's onshore or cross-onshore, so it's back to the same old story.

So, in short: you've got a long wait with almost nothing for the first week. The only real window to keep an eye on is the 24th and 25th of July, when that S swell hits. It's not a classic, picture-perfect day, but it's the only time the ocean will have some real punch. Keep your expectations in check, and if you're an experienced surfer, that Saturday morning might just be worth a look.

Rusty.

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