Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's be straight with you – it's been a tough run of surf for Blackies and it looks like that's gonna continue for a while. The forecast is pretty grim through this whole 16-day window. There are no real standouts, nothing I'd tell you to rush out for. But stick with me, I'll walk you through the misery.

First up, Blackies is a beach and point set-up, and it’s inconsistent by nature. The water is running at 71°F right now, and that's 5°F warmer than it should be for this time of year – that's a big deal. So yeah, the ocean's feeling odd. For Wednesday the 22nd afternoon, we're looking at a weak 3ft swell from the SSW, with a moderate wave energy (575). The wind is a gentle cross-onshore at 15 km/h, which is keeping things choppy. It’s poor. Not worth the paddle.

Moving into Thursday the 23rd, morning offers a similar story – 3ft from the S, with a lighter wind, but the forecast has it as marginal at best. Afternoon is even smaller at 2ft. The real kicker is the period; when it's over 15 seconds (like on Friday the 24th morning with a 24-second period from the SW), the waves get long and fat. At beach breaks, that tends to stand them up too straight, making for a tricky, close-outy ride. That 2ft morning on Friday is paired with a very long period, which sounds fancy, but for a spot like this, it's a caveat.

The end of July and the first week of August is a wasteland. We've got a solid 8-day stretch from Monday the 28th through to Monday the 4th of August where every single session is flagged as either "marginal" or "poor". The wave energy peaks around 936 on the 28th, but the wind is always on or cross-on, and the swell height barely cracks 4ft on the best days. The direction is almost always SSW or S, which isn't the ideal W alignment for this break. On the 31st of July, the wind drops to a whisper at 5 km/h from the W, but the swell is down to 3ft with a short 14-second period, so it’s just not doing anything.

By early August, the energy completely drops out. On Tuesday the 4th of August morning, we're down to a pathetic 1ft from the SSW with only 125 energy points. The afternoon of the 4th sees it hit just 80 energy – that's weaker than weak. The whole thing fizzles out to 1ft. It’s dead.

Honestly, for most of this period, the setup at this beach looks more interesting for a kite surfer than anyone with a paddle. The wind is consistent enough, but the waves just aren't there for us.

I'll call it like I see it: there's nothing to get excited about in this forecast. A blank run like this is pretty normal for an inconsistent spot like Blackies. Forecasts can change, but right now, leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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