Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one for our local stretch. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the surf is barely a whisper for most of it. The waves are small, the winds are messy, and you’ll be waiting a long time for anything worth paddling out for.

First up, at Blackies, the story is pretty grim. The water is sitting at 73°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a real 7° anomaly, so it’s like stepping into a bath. But the ocean is mostly flat. It’s not a consistent spot, and this run shows it.

We start on Monday, August 3rd, with tiny swell at 1ft from the SW. The morning is cross-on with a light breeze, and the afternoon is just choppy. The energy is weak – just 81 in the morning and 166 in the afternoon. It’s basically a lake. That pattern sticks for the next few days. Tuesday and Wednesday are the same: 1ft, onshore wind, and poor conditions. The combined energy is low, bouncing between 95 and 131. It’s a waste of time.

The weekend of the 7th and 8th sees a slight bump up to 2ft to 2ft, but the wind is still cross-on from the S and SW. The energy gets moderate, hitting 331 on Friday morning, but it’s all short-period, messy stuff. The morning of Saturday the 8th gets a 1/10, but it’s still poor.

The only real flicker of hope comes about a week and a half out. On Thursday, August 14th, the swell stays small at 2ft to 2ft, but the energy jumps up big time – 425 on Friday morning, which is strong. It’s a long-period groundswell from the SSW at 18 seconds, which means it’ll have some push. But the wind is onshore, and the conditions are still rated as marginal. It’s a tease.

Then the weekend of the 15th rolls in with 3ft from the SSW, but the wind is cross-on from the W. The energy is still strong, around 391, but it’s not clean. Saturday morning is the only time that gets a 1/10 rating, but it’s still not great.

The standout? Honestly, there isn’t one. If you’re desperate, the best chance is the morning of Saturday, August 15th, when the swell is 3ft from the SSW and the wind is a light cross-on breeze. The energy is strong at 391, but it’s inconsistent and the break is rarely working. The wind is still a cross-on, so it won’t be glassy. For beginners, it’s a no-go because the swell is small but the period is long, and for experts, the 3ft is a bit of a joke. This setup with the wind and small swell looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The gap is huge – from the start until the 14th, we’ve got nothing but flat, choppy junk. It’s a long, frustrating wait. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a hard pass.

Rusty.

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