Blackies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me tell ya how it’s lookin’ over the next couple weeks for Blackies.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with ya – there’s no real surf to get excited about here. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a long stretch from now through to the end of July where the conditions are just gonna be poor. You’ll see some swell, but the wind is never your friend. Most days it’s a cross-onshore breeze, and the wave heights are tiny – around 1 ft to 3 ft. The swell’s coming from the SSW or SW with a long period, up to 18 seconds, which would normally have some energy, but the combined energy (726) is only moderate, and that clean face just isn’t happening.

Tuesday the 7th of July morning is about the best it gets, but even that’s a stretch. There’s a 3 ft SSW groundswell with a very long 18-second period, and it’s clean with a light onshore breeze. The water is 66°, which is just about normal for this time of year. But honestly, it’s still a marginal surf forecast. The afternoon turns choppy, and from Wednesday onward, the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, and the surf quality drops straight to poor.

Blackies (beach and point) is usually a bit inconsistent anyway, and it’s showing that here. It’s exposed to that W swell direction, which we’re getting, but the optimum direction is actually west, and we’re getting a lot of SSW and SW. That mismatch, plus the persistent onshore wind, means the waves are messy and weak. The crowd factor is “often,” so on a good day it’d be busy, but there’s nothing here to draw a crowd.

By the second week, from the 14th of July onward, the swell fades even more – down to 1 ft to 2 ft with combined energy dropping to 113. The wind stays stubbornly cross-onshore. There’s a slight chance on the 19th of July (a Sunday) where the wind goes light and cross-shore, but the swell is still tiny at 2 ft and marginal.

In short, if you want a paddle, you’re better off staying home. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, with that steady cross-onshore wind. But for us surfers? It’s a long, flat, and choppy outlook. Keep an eye on the forecasts – things can change, but for now, it’s a solid no-go.

Rusty

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