Southerndown Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The outlook for Southerndown over the next 16 days is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of mostly poor surf conditions, with a couple of faint glimmers right at the end. The first 12 days or so are a write-off, nothing worth paddling out for. The consistency is there, but the quality is not.

Starting off, the water is a balmy 68°, which is a massive 7° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s very unusual, like having a warm bath. But the surf? Forget it. From Saturday the 5th right through to the end of Monday the 16th, it’s poor. The swell is tiny, mostly under 3ft, and the wind is a mess. It’s cross-on or cross-shore, choppy and lumpy. The combined swell energy is pathetic, often in the double digits (67, 40, 36), meaning there’s hardly any power in the water. We’re talking about weak, sloppy windswell with periods of 6 to 8 seconds. Not worth a look.

There’s a brief spike on Monday the 7th, with a 5ft swell from the WSW and a solid 14-second period, giving a massive 445 combined energy. That’s a long-period groundswell for sure, and it would be a beauty at a reef or point, but at Southerndown? The wind is a fresh cross-on at 19 mph, making it lumpy and messy. The swell direction is a bit off the optimum SW, too. It’s a no-go for paddling, but that kind of power and wind might be fun for the kite surfers.

After that, it’s back to tiny, choppy waves until the 17th. The 13th and 14th see glassy conditions and tiny 1.0ft to 1ft waves, but they’re just too small to do anything with.

Now, here’s the only real standout in the whole outlook. On Thursday the 17th of September, we get a bit of hope. The morning shows a 5ft swell from the W, with a short 7-second period. The combined energy is 297, which is moderate. But the real key here is the wind: a clean cross-offshore breeze from the east at 9 mph. That’s the best wind we’ve seen. It’ll be clean. The afternoon on the 17th offers a 3ft swell from the W, still clean, with some energy (78). The 18th has a similar story with a 4ft swell from the W in the morning (192 energy) and a glassy 3ft in the afternoon. The surf is still a bit ordinary—short period, not the best shape—but it’s the only game in town. If you’re desperate, go for the 17th morning. It’s the biggest and cleanest we’ll get. The 20th is a washout again, tiny and clean but no power.

So, to sum it up: the first 12 days are a total blank. You’re waiting for the 17th and 18th for a chance at some clean, but average, waves. It’s not a classic, but it’s all we’ve got. Keep your eyes on the forecast—things can change.

Rusty.

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