Ponta do Silencio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – the outlook for this next stretch is a bit of a letdown. Most of the sixteen-day window is flat or junk, but there’s one strange, late blip that might get your heart pumping if you’re a proper charger.

We start off with nothing. From Friday the 31st of July all the way through to the morning of Tuesday the 11th of August, it’s a long, painful gap of poor surf conditions. Tiny waves, mostly under 2 feet, and just no energy to speak of – the combined energy sits below 50 for nearly two weeks. It’s the kind of run where you’re better off cleaning your board than staring at the ocean.

The first real flicker of hope comes on Tuesday afternoon, the 11th of August. A little pulse of 3 feet from the ENE, with a period of 8 seconds, pushes the combined energy up to 110 (moderate wave energy). The wind is light and cross-offshore, so it’s clean. But the conditions are still described as “ordinary,” and it’s only a 1 out of 10 sort of day. Not a standout, but at least you could get wet. The water temperature is 66°, and that anomaly of +0.9° means it’s pretty much average for this time of year.

Then, on the 13th of August, a big swell shows up on the charts. Thursday afternoon sees a 3 feet swell from the SE, but the period jumps to a very long 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy rockets to 338 (strong wave energy). Problem is, the wind is onshore from the SE at 12 mph, and the conditions are unknown. It’s a tease.

The real stand-out, if you can call it that, is Saturday the 15th of August. Saturday morning ramps up with a 3 feet SE swell, 16-second period, and combined energy of 391 (strong wave energy). But the wind is onshore from the ESE at 12 mph, so it’s messy.

Then, Saturday afternoon, things get wild. The swell jumps to 10 feet from the SSE, with a 15-second period, and the combined energy hits 4829 (very strong wave energy). That’s a heavy, powerful swell – definitely for experts only, as it’s well over 8 feet. The wind is onshore from the SE at 9 mph, and the conditions are “unknown,” which is a red flag. Ponta do Silencio is a sheltered reef break, so it might handle the size, but the long period and onshore wind could make it a grumpy, closed-out mess. This is a promising but uncertain long-range call – it’s two weeks out, so keep an eye on it.

For the rest of the window, there’s nothing else worth paddling for. We’ve got a few glassy mornings with tiny 1 feet waves, but no power behind them. That big swell on the 15th is the only thing that’ll get the adrenaline going, and even then, it’s a gamble.

Rusty.

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