Matinhos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a pretty drawn-out outlook for the next 16 days at Matinhos, and I’ll be honest with you – it’s mostly a flat, average run with very little to get excited about. There’s no big swell on the cards, and what does show up is often small and chopped up by bad wind. The water’s sitting at 70°F right now, which is more than 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s notable, but it doesn’t help the waves much. Let’s walk through it.

Tuesday the 15th starts off with the best chance we’re going to get in the whole window. Tuesday morning there’s a clean, glassy session on offer: a 2ft SE swell with a period of 9 seconds. The wind is NNW at 3 mph and glassy – that’s the clearest it’ll be all week. The combined swell energy is moderate at 132, but the waves are small and ordinary. Tuesday afternoon turns poor as the wind swings ESE to 6 mph onshore.

From Wednesday the 16th right through to Monday the 21st, it’s all small, messy, or poor conditions. We get a bit of a bump Saturday the 19th with 5ft E swell but it’s short-period (7 seconds) and under light rain with cross-shore wind – just not clean. Sunday the 20th is similar: 4ft E swell, still onshore wind, marginal. Monday the 21st morning has a brief window of NW offshore wind at 3 mph, with 4ft E swell (8 seconds) – surfable but very ordinary, not enough to call a standout.

Then the middle of the week – Tuesday 22nd to Saturday 26th (that’s nearly 5 days) – we see a real lull. Tiny swell, mostly under 3ft, and even though some mornings offer glassy conditions, the waves are just too small. Not worth paddling out unless you’re desperate.

Now, around Sunday the 27th to Wednesday the 30th in the second week, there’s a slight increase in wave energy. Sunday morning sees 4ft SSE swell but it’s short-period (6 seconds) and under moderate cross-onshore wind at 12 mph – choppy and poor. Monday the 28th has a 3ft SE swell with a decent 10-second period and combined energy of 299 (moderate), but the wind is onshore and it’s marginal. The best of this late window is Tuesday the 29th morning: 3ft SE swell with a very long period of 14 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy for a point break. Combined energy hits 531, the strongest we see (strong wave energy). Wind is cross-shore at 9 mph, so there’s some chop, but at a point break like Matinhos, that long period should wrap in nicely. Still, it’s a marginal call and the size is small.

Honestly, if you’re after a true standout, Tuesday the 15th morning is your best bet – it’s the only time the stars align with glassy wind and at least surfable waves. Everything else is a compromise. The second week has some energy but carries less certainty.

That’s how it’s shaping up. Keep an eye on it – things can shift.

Rusty.

Read more