Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Rusty here again, but this time in feet and knots for your old-school brain. The long-range forecast for Chinamans and the nearby area ain’t looking too hot. We’ve got a lengthy run of poor surf with almost no clean windows until we hit the second week.

The whole first week is plagued by cross-onshore wind—mostly east or east-northeast at 11 to 16 knots. Swell heights wobble between 3 ft and 7 ft, but the period is short (7-8 seconds), making for ugly chop and lumpy surface. On Wednesday July 22, for example, we start with rain showers and 13 knots from the east, 6 ft ENE swell, 7-second period—just terrible surf. It doesn’t get any better through July 25. Saturday July 26 brings a 15-second east swell only 3-4 ft, combined energy jumps to moderate, but still ruined by 13 knots cross-onshore. By Monday July 27, the combined energy is 1039-1049—strong—but it stays cross-onshore with 11 knots, so only marginal at best.

Finally, August 4 Tuesday shows something: the wind eases to just 8 knots from the ENE, and we’ve got 7 ft ENE swell at 10 seconds, combined energy 1303—strong. Still cross-onshore and just marginal. But August 5 Wednesday morning is the closest thing we have to a decent session all window. The wind goes light at 5 knots from the east, cross-shore, and the swell is 8 ft from the ENE, 13 seconds—groundswell. The combined energy is 1901—very strong. This is a powerful, long-period groundswell hitting an inconsistent point break. It’s right on the edge of expert territory, and with crowds possible, you might get a few clean ones if it all aligns. The afternoon sees wind drop to 3 knots cross-shore, swell at 8 ft ENE, 13 seconds, energy at 1765.

August 6 Thursday morning keeps the momentum: 8 ft ENE swell at 12 seconds, light cross-shore from the ESE, combined energy at 1798. By the afternoon, though, swell builds to 10 ft from the NE at 12 seconds, but the wind swings cross-onshore. The combined energy hits 2328—very strong. This is expert stuff only, and with wind turning, even those guys will find it rough. The water temp is around 79°, which is normal for the season.

So overall, the first ten days are basically a wash. You’re waiting until August 5-6 for any real size and quality, and even then it’s marginal and for skilled hands only. For most of us, there’s just not much to chase here. Rusty out.

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