Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening at Chinaman’s Hat/Mokolii (Oahu). It’s a point break, but it’s inconsistent, so when it’s on, it can be a treat, but a lot of the time you’re just watching and waiting. Right now, we’re looking at a long 16-day window, and honestly, it’s a tough one.

We’ve got a run starting Thursday, the 27th of August, but don’t get your hopes up. The swell is coming in from the ENE at around 5 ft, with a short, weak period of 6 seconds. The wind is a steady 16 mph cross-onshore from the same direction, which is just chopping everything up. The water temperature is sitting at a warm 81°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, no weird anomalies. The combined energy is weak to start (167), and it just feels messy. This pattern holds right through the first week and into the start of September. The swell builds a bit, getting up to 7 ft by the 1st of September, and the period stretches to 8 seconds, but the wind stays cross-onshore and the surf quality is described as poor. The combined energy climbs into the moderate range (559 by Tuesday morning), but without clean wind, it doesn’t matter.

The only flicker of something different comes on Wednesday, the 2nd of September, in the morning. The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph and goes cross-shore, which cleans things up a little, but the swell is still a messy 6 ft from the ENE with an 8-second period. The combined energy is moderate (549), but the surf is only rated as marginal. It’s not a standout, just a slight break in the clouds.

From the 4th of September onward, the swell period starts to climb, hitting 11 seconds, which is a nice groundswell. The swell height sits around 6 ft to 7 ft, and the combined energy gets strong, reaching over 1000 by the 6th of September. But here’s the kicker – the wind stays cross-onshore from the ENE at 12 to 19 mph the whole time, keeping the surface messy. By the 8th of September, the wind gets even stronger, hitting 25 mph, and it’s just lumpy, messy conditions. There’s a brief moment on the 11th of September where the wind goes cross-offshore from the SE at 28 mph, which cleans it up, but the swell drops back to 6 ft with a short 7-second period, and the combined energy is weak (349). It’s clean, but weak.

For the whole 16 days, there isn’t a single true standout. The best you’re looking at is that Wednesday morning on the 2nd of September for a marginal chance, or maybe the 11th of September for clean but weak waves. For a break that’s already inconsistent, this is a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions. Honestly, with the persistent cross-onshore wind and the short-period chop, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of the window. Keep an eye on the long-range forecasts, but for now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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