Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s get into it.

Right now, and for the next couple of weeks, it’s a tough stretch at Chinamans Hat/Mokolii. We’re looking at a solid run of poor surf conditions with no real standout days, so manage your expectations.

The wave energy is hanging between moderate and strong for the whole period, with values like 609 (moderate wave energy) early on and climbing to 768 (strong wave energy) by the 18th of July. But that’s where the good news stops. The wind is relentless from the ENE, sitting at 12 to 19 mph, and it stays cross-onshore the entire time. That means choppy, lumpy, and messy surfaces from the get-go through to the 22nd of July.

From Tuesday, July 7th, right through the first week, it’s all cross-onshore wind and poor surf. The swell is coming from the ENE, with heights between 6 ft and 8 ft, but the period is short—7 to 8 seconds. That’s weak, wind-affected chop, not the kind of wave that’s going to get you excited. The wave comment says “poor surf conditions” for every single entry. There’s a real gap here: no decent windows at all until the very end of the outlook.

Now, the pattern doesn’t let up. Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th see similar conditions: 7 ft to 8 ft ENE swell with short period, and that same cross-onshore wind. Crowds are sometimes a problem at Chinamans, but with this quality, it’s probably a ghost town anyway. Not a bad thing, but not a good sign either.

As we push into the second week, from Monday the 14th to Friday the 18th, it’s more of the same. The swell actually builds—8 ft by Saturday the 18th—but it’s still short period (8 seconds) and the wind stays cross-onshore. That’s not a wave you want to be paddling into. For beginners, anything over 5 ft with messy wind is a challenge, and this is way past that. For experienced surfers, it might still be frustrating because the shape just isn’t there.

Around the 21st and 22nd of July, something shifts. The swell drops to 2 ft on Tuesday afternoon and 3 ft on Wednesday morning, but the period spikes to 16 seconds and 14 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell. Combined wave energy is still moderate (501 and 483), but the height is tiny. A long-period swell like this at a point break can sometimes produce clean, lined-up waves if the wind cooperates. But here, it’s still cross-onshore at 12 mph. The wave comment still says “poor surf conditions.” So while the period is promising, the rest of the setup kills it.

Bottom line: there is no standout day in this entire 16-day forecast. The only real highlight is that long-period groundswell at the very end, but the wind ruins it. If you’re desperate for a paddle, the 22nd of July might offer the cleanest energy despite the chop, but it’s a stretch. For now, I’d say wait for a change in the wind.

Keep your head up, it’s not always like this. Forecasts can turn. But for this stretch, you’re better off taking a break or checking other spots.

Rusty.

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