Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about the surf outlook for Chinamans Hat/Mokolii, a point break on the windward side of Oahu that’s exposed to the NE. This spot is inconsistent, so we know it’s a bit of a gamble. The water’s sitting about average for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

To be honest, the first week and a half is a bit of a write-off. From Monday, 13 July, right through to Friday, 24 July, it’s cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions with poor surf quality. The swell hangs around 4 ft to 6 ft from the ENE, but the period is short – mostly 6 to 8 seconds – so it’s weak and messy. The combined swell energy is in the low to moderate range, between 132 and 531 (moderate to strong wave energy) later in that window, but the wind just ruins it. There’s a lot of days with moderate breezes and cross-onshore chop, making it tough to get a clean wave. The best you can say is that from Wednesday, 22 July through Friday, 24 July, the wind drops to a gentle breeze, but it’s still cross-onshore and fairly choppy, so not worth getting excited about.

The standout window looks like Saturday, 25 July. We’ve got a swell of 6 ft to 6 ft from the ENE with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined swell energy jumps to 530–531 (strong wave energy). The wind is a gentle breeze from the E and ENE, still cross-onshore but lighter, so the chop is less aggressive. It’s listed as marginal, not great, but it’s the best we’ll see in the whole 16 days. The swell direction is ENE, which is not the optimum NE for this break, but it’s close enough. The crowds are sometimes a problem here, so expect company. This is a spot for intermediate surfers – the 6 ft is well within range, and the short period means it won’t be too heavy.

After that, Sunday, 26 July, sees similar swell but with rain showers and a moderate breeze picking up again, dropping the quality back to poor. Monday, 27 July, has a weird 3 ft swell with a 14-second period, but it’s still cross-onshore and messy, and the energy is high (764) but the wind ruins it. Tuesday, 28 July, has a 6 ft swell from the ENE with a 12-second period, and the combined energy hits 1138 (very strong wave energy), but again, moderate cross-onshore winds kill it.

So, the only real chance to get something decent is Saturday, 25 July. It’s a shame because the energy is there later in the run, but the wind just won’t play ball. For the rest, you’re better off waiting for a change in the forecast. This break is inconsistent, so a blank stretch like this isn’t surprising, but it doesn’t tend to stay poor for long.

Rusty.

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