Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up for Chinaman’s Hat/Mokolii on the windward side. I’ve got the whole 16-day run in front of me, and I’ll be straight with you: it’s a tough stretch.

Right off the bat, the problem is the wind. We’ve got a persistent easterly flow that locks in as a cross-onshore breeze for the entire period. That means the surface is going to be chopped up and lumpy for the foreseeable future. The swell coming in is mostly from the east to east-northeast, which isn't the optimum direction for this spot (it prefers the north-east), so the waves aren't wrapping in cleanly.

The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing while you're battling the chop.

Looking at the first few days, from Monday the 24th through the end of August, we’re looking at waist-to-shoulder high swell, around 4 to 6 ft. The period is short, only 6-7 seconds, so it’s weak, disorganized energy. The combined swell energy is mostly in the weak to moderate range (as low as 141 up to 383). It’s all rated as poor surf conditions every single session. Honestly, it’s not worth paddling out.

There is a little pulse that shows up around Monday the 31st of August into September 1st. Swell height bumps up to 8 ft, and the period stretches to 8 seconds. The combined energy jumps up to a strong 600 to 716. That’s a lot more water moving around. However, that’s solid overhead to a bit more, getting into intermediate-to-expert territory. The wind is still a light to moderate cross-onshore, so it’s going to be a messy, lumpy challenge. The direction is still coming from ENE, so the wave quality at this point break is going to be poor.

The energy drops back down after that, staying in the 4 to 6 ft range with that same stubborn cross-onshore easterly wind. There is a single interesting moment on Saturday, September 5th, where the swell drops to 2 ft but the period jumps to 12 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, but it’s tiny and the wind is still cross-onshore – a recipe for crumbly, weak waves at best.

So, to cut a long story short: for the entire 16-day window, there isn’t a single standout session. The consistent cross-onshore wind ruins every single day. The swell is either too weak and short-period, or too messy with the wind. If you absolutely have to get wet, the biggest, most powerful, but ugliest waves will be around Monday the 31st of August and Tuesday the 1st of September. But don't expect anything clean. For everyone else, leave the board in the car and maybe check back later – forecasts can change.

Stay salty.
Rusty

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