Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight up – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for surf around here. We’ve got one spot to talk about, and it’s a real case of “if you’re desperate.” Chinamans Hat/Mokolii is the only game in town, and it’s a tough one.

The forecast kicks off on Saturday, 5th September, but don’t get your hopes up. The swell is a messy 7ft from the ENE, with a period of 14 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, which at a point break like this can be okay, but the wind is a cross-onshore howl at 15 mph, whipping it into a choppy mess. The energy is pumping at 1725, but it’s all for nothing with those conditions. It’s a “poor surf” call, and it stays that way for days.

Sunday the 6th through Monday the 7th is more of the same: cross-shore and cross-on winds, lumpy chop, and the swell drops a bit. The energy is still moderate to strong (1123-1100), but the quality is just not there. You’re looking at “marginal” at best, with some stormy risks thrown in.

Then on Tuesday, 8th September, a tiny glimmer. The wind swings to the S, giving us a clean cross-off breeze at 18 mph. The swell is 7ft from the ENE, but here’s the rub – the period drops to 11 seconds, and the energy is still high at 991. It’s clean, but it’s a strong, fresh wind so it’s not going to be pretty. Still, it’s the best we’ve got. The water temp is a balmy 80°F, which is bang on average for the time of year.

Wednesday, 9th September, the wind eases to a gentle 9 mph from the SE, and the swell drops to 4ft with a short 8-second period. The energy is weak at 375. It’s clean in the morning, and the guidance says “expect good surf conditions,” but honestly, it’s small and weak. It’s a marginal option at best.

After that, it’s a long, sad slide. From Thursday the 10th right through to the end of the window on Sunday, 20th September, it’s a non-stop run of poor surf. The wind is almost always cross-on or cross-shore, the swell is short-period junk (6-8 seconds), and the energy drops to a pitiful 171-332. The waves are small, choppy, and wind-affected. For a spot that’s already inconsistent, this is a real bummer.

If you’re a beginner, be careful. The swell hits 7ft early on and stays around 5ft-7ft for a bit, which is too much for learning. After that, it’s small and weak, but the chop makes it ugly. For the experienced heads, there’s nothing to get excited about here. The whole 16-day stretch is a write-off for quality waves. Honestly, this setup with the strong winds and messy surf looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

It’s a quiet period, but it won’t stay poor forever. Forecasts change.

Rusty.

Read more