Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Imperial Units

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about the surf outlook for our little slice of paradise. The only break the data’s got on the radar is Chinamans Hat/Mokolii, so that’s where we’re looking.

The pattern over the next 16 days is a bit of a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of onshore winds and messy conditions, with only a couple of brief windows that might be worth a paddle. The early part of the run is a total write-off.

For the first four days, from Saturday the 25th through to Tuesday the 29th of July, it’s grim. Strong cross-onshore winds from the ENE are going to have the place chopped up and lumpy. The swell is there, mostly in the 6 ft to 7 ft range, but it’s short-period wind swell (around 7-8 seconds) and the combined energy is moderate (593). It’s just not going to be any fun. Even the early morning session on Tuesday the 28th has a risk of thunderstorms blowing through. Honestly, forget about those days.

Then we get a little flicker of hope on Wednesday the 29th of July. The wind swings around to a light SSE cross-offshore breeze, which finally cleans things up. The morning is the pick, with a solid 10 ft swell from the ENE, a period of 11 seconds, and a good whack of energy (1958). This is the standout, but it’s a big one. At 10 ft, this is expert territory only. The afternoon drops off to 7 ft with a shorter period, but still clean. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

But that clean window is short-lived. From Thursday the 30th of July right through to Sunday the 9th of August, we’re back into the onshore wind grinder. The ENE trades fire up again, sometimes fresh, sometimes moderate, making it a bumpy, cross-onshore mess. The swell is all over the place, from 3 ft to 8 ft, but it’s nearly all short-period, poor-quality wind swell. The combined energy values are moderate, mostly in the 300-900 range, but it’s not worth paddling out for. The light winds on the 4th and 5th of August offer a tiny bit of hope, but the swell is still too short and weak to get excited about. The 5th of August is a no-go, and the 6th of August is just tiny and short-period.

The absolute best bet, and it’s a long shot, is the early morning of Wednesday, the 29th of July. If you’re an experienced surfer, you might get a few powerful, clean bombs at Chinamans Hat. The swell direction is from the ENE, but the optimum is from the NE, so it’s not lining up perfectly. The other factor is that this spot is inconsistent, so you’ll be waiting for sets. And with an "always" crowd label, you won’t be alone. But for that one morning, the conditions are the best on offer.

For the rest of the run, the setup is a classic wind-blown, shoulder-high mess. The wind and swell are so consistently ugly that the break honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s a dry spell, but the data shows a few of those marginal windows, so forecasts can change. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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