Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you. This stretch around Chinamans Hat/Mokolii (Oahu) is looking pretty grim. We’ve got a solid run of weak, short-period windswell coming in from the ENE, and the trade winds are blowing straight across the break, making a mess of it. The water temp is sitting at 80° with a tiny anomaly of 0.4°, so it’s basically your typical warm Hawaiian bathwater for this time of year.

We kick off Wednesday, August 12th, with a 4ft swell from the ENE at 7 seconds, but it's cross-on and choppy. The combined energy is only 162, so it’s weak. That poor pattern just keeps going. Thursday the 13th sees it nudge up to 5ft, but the period drops to 6 seconds and the wind is still cross-on. Energy creeps up to 177. By Friday the 14th, we get 6ft to 7ft with a period of 7 to 8 seconds and the energy jumps to 426 and 492, but it’s still cross-on and lumpy. Saturday the 15th is the first real spike – a 10ft swell from the ENE with a 9-second period, energy hits 1525, but the wind is howling at 22 mph with rain showers. It’s a blown-out mess.

The peak of this whole event is Sunday, August 16th. We’re looking at a massive 15ft swell from the East with a 10-second period, and the energy is a whopping 3940. That’s serious power. But the wind is a near gale at 34 mph straight onshore, with a risk of thunderstorms. It’s not surfable for paddle surfing. That afternoon, the swell drops to 12ft, still from the East, with a 9-second period, energy 1941, and the wind goes cross-shore. It’s only a marginal call, with a score of 2/10. Even then, 12ft is expert territory, and the cross-chop will be nasty.

After that, the swell slowly fades, but the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore right through to the end of the forecast on August 27th. The energy drops from 520 on Monday the 17th down to a paltry 111 by Wednesday the 26th. The period is short, 6 to 8 seconds, and the waves are 4ft to 5ft but all windblown.

Honestly, there’s not a single standout session in this whole 16-day run. The only day that even gets a marginal nod is Sunday afternoon, August 16th, but with 12ft swell, strong cross-shore winds, and a cross-chop, it’s really only for the hardcore crew on big boards, and it’s a gamble. There’s a gap of about 10 days from the 17th onward where the recommendations are all zero. For the average surfer, this is a write-off. The break is inconsistent at the best of times, and when the trades are this strong, it’s more of a kitesurfing setup than a paddle spot. Hang tight, the forecasts can always change for the better.

Rusty.

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