Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. Straight up, I gotta be honest with you – this stretch is a lean one. We’re looking at a long, drawn-out run of poor conditions for the one spot that’s showing on the radar: Chinamans Hat/Mokolii. It’s a great-looking point break, and it’s exposed to the swell, but the wind gods are not playing ball for most of this forecast.

The water temperature is sitting at 80°F, which is just about bang-on average for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick suit.

We start off on Wednesday the 2nd of September with a 7ft swell out of the ENE, but that’s paired with a stiff 16 mph cross-onshore breeze from the east. The wave energy is moderate, but the cross-onshore wind is just chopping everything up, making for poor surf. This messy pattern sticks with us through the first week.

The ESE swell direction isn’t matching the optimum NE direction for the break either, which is a real bummer. This spot works best when the swell wraps in from the right direction.

There’s a bit of a shift on Sunday the 6th, with the swell picking up a touch more energy, but it’s still cross-onshore and the wave comment calls it “marginal” at best. Not something to get excited about.

The only real standout window I can see is around the 12th and 13th of September. On Saturday the 12th, we get a light breeze from the ESE at only 6 mph, which is a cross-shore wind. The swell holds around 6ft from the ENE with a 12-second period. The energy is moderate, and while it’s not glassy, the lighter wind means it’ll be less chop and more manageable. The following morning, Sunday the 13th, sees a similar setup with a 5ft ENE swell, 10-second period, and a light ESE cross-shore breeze. This is your best chance to get a few clean-ish ones. Keep in mind this break is *inconsistent*, so don’t expect a conveyor belt of waves, and crowds are possible here.

Because the combined wave energy for this spot rarely dips low and often hits three-digit figures, there’s enough push in the water, but the wind is the real killjoy. For most of the forecast, with that strong cross-onshore wind and a beach-like exposure, this setup would actually look more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

After the 14th, we fizzle out with very little energy and tiny 3ft waves, so the second week is a write-off.

So, to sum it up: the pick of a poor bunch is Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th of September. The swell will be in the chest-to-head-high range, direction is ENE, and the lighter winds make it the most surfable days in the whole window. It’s not pumping, but it’s the best you’re gonna get.

Rusty.

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