Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's break down what's on the menu for the next couple of weeks at Chinamans Hat/Mokolii.

First off, I gotta be straight with you – it's looking pretty grim. We're kicking off with a real rough patch. From Friday, July 31st right through the first week of August, the wind is just howling out of the east and east-northeast. We're seeing 19 mph breezes turning that 7 ft to 8 ft swell into a lumpy, choppy mess. The combined energy is up there (596 to 1107), but it's all "poor surf conditions" with that fresh cross-onshore wind ruining everything. It's just not worth paddling out for.

The swell does drop a bit by Monday, August 3rd, down to around 6 ft, and the wind eases to a gentle breeze, but it's still cross-on and fairly choppy. The energy is moderate (482). It's a step in the right direction, but still not good.

Now, here's a little flicker of hope. On Tuesday, August 4th, we get a longer period swell rolling in at 11 seconds. The swell size is around 5 ft – 5 ft, and the energy is moderate (513). The winds are still a gentle cross-on, so it's only "marginal" with questionable tide. But that longer period means the waves will have a bit more shape, even if the conditions aren't perfect. It's a point break here, so that longer period groundswell could actually wrap in a little better, but the east direction is far from its optimum north-east. This is the best we're going to see in the first week, but it's a long way from a standout.

The rest of the first week and into the second week is a real letdown. The swell drops off, and the period shortens back to 6-8 seconds. The wind stays onshore or cross-shore, and the energy falls to weak levels (under 200) by the end of the second week. We're looking at a solid 10-11 day stretch here with nothing worth getting excited about. The water temperature hasn't been flagged as unusual, so it's about average for this time of year.

Honestly, for the entire 16-day window, there's not a single session I'd call a standout. The only break we have to look at is Chinamans Hat/Mokolii, and it's just not delivering. The swell direction is from the east and east-northeast, but the optimum for this spot is north-east, so it's never really aligned right. Plus, it's an inconsistent spot, so when conditions are this poor, it's a real blank. For a surfer, this is a write-off. If you've got a kite, you might be able to have some fun with that strong wind and lumpy 8 ft swell, but for a paddle surfer, leave the board at home.

Rusty, signing off.

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