Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right. Rusty here. Let’s have a look at this one.

Straight up, I’ll be honest with you, mate – for the next couple of weeks, Chinamans Hat/Mokolii (Oahu) is a tough watch. It’s an inconsistent point break that needs a clean NE swell and the right wind to really work, and we just aren’t getting that. The whole 16-day window is a struggle, and there’s a long stretch of nothing good.

The first week is a total write-off. From Thursday the 16th right through to Sunday the 27th of July, it’s all poor surf conditions. The wind is a constant cross or cross-onshore from the E or ENE, keeping things choppy and messy. The swell is small, mostly 3 ft to 5 ft, and the period is often short and weak, around 6 to 8 seconds. The combined energy is all over the place, but it’s mostly weak to moderate (134 to 792), which means the waves are just lacking punch. It’s not worth paddling out for.

The best chance we see is right at the very end. On the 28th of July, Tuesday morning, the conditions start to turn. The swell is still coming from the ENE, but it’s pushing 4 ft to 5 ft with a longer period of 13 seconds. The wind drops to a gentle breeze, and the cross-on chop is fairly light. It’s still only a marginal forecast, but it’s the best of a bad lot. The score is a 1 out of 10, so keep your expectations low.

Then, on Wednesday the 29th of July, we get a real glimpse of hope. The swell picks up to 6 ft from the ENE, with a period of 10 to 11 seconds. The combined energy is strong (860 to 748). The wind is a light breeze, cross-shore, which would leave the surface pretty clean. This is the standout window. For a point break like Chinamans, that longer period and a bit of size could actually set up some nice lines. It’s still only a 2 out of 10, but for this spot in this period, it’s the best we’ve got.

After that, it drops right back off. From the 30th of July onward, it’s back to small, weak, and choppy. The blank run is real.

So, look – if you’re desperate, the Wednesday the 29th of July morning is your call. That’s the only time the swell has a bit of size and the wind is light enough to make it rideable. But don’t expect a classic session. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing special.

Rusty.

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