Chinamans Hat/Mokolii Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Chinamans Hat/Mokolii over the next couple of weeks. I’m not going to lie to you – it’s a bleak stretch ahead for most of it. This is an inconsistent little point break (Oahu) that really needs the right conditions to fire, and sadly, they just aren’t lining up for a while.

For the first week, from Friday 11th September right through to Thursday 24th September, it is pretty much a write-off. The swell is small to moderate – mostly between 2ft and 7ft – but the wind is a persistent cross-onshore breeze, and the forecast keeps calling it “poor surf conditions.” The combined swell energy is weak to moderate, ranging from just 99 to 631 throughout that stretch, and the period is short to average, around 6 to 10 seconds. That ENE wind just won’t let up, keeping things choppy and messy. There’s no single standout in that first block; it’s all a bit of a struggle to even find a rideable wave.

Things start to look a little more interesting on Friday 25th September. The morning still shows cross-shore wind and a 6ft swell from the east with a combined energy of 812 – it’s marginal, but you might get a couple. The afternoon is where you start to see a real shift: a 4ft swell from the NNW with a very long period of 15 seconds, and a combined energy of 1271. That is some proper groundswell energy starting to push in, but the wind is still cross-shore, so it’s described as “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.”

Now, the real highlight – and the only true standout in this entire outlook – is Saturday 26th September. Both the morning and afternoon sessions are looking clean, thanks to a light cross-offshore breeze. The morning shows a 5ft swell from the NNW with a period of 14 seconds, and a combined energy of 1066. That’s moderately strong energy for this spot. The afternoon stays clean with a 5ft swell from the NNW, period of 13 seconds, and combined energy of 940. This is the only window where the wind and swell align for quality surf. The water temperature is sitting around 80°F, which is bang on average for this time of year. Keep in mind, this is a point break, and a long-period NNW swell (over 11 seconds) can make it a bit walled at beach breaks, but at a point like Chinamans, it should wrap in nicely. The break is inconsistent, so don’t expect non-stop action, but the sets that come through will be worth it.

That Saturday is really the only day I’d be circling on the calendar. After that, things go quiet again with poor conditions returning through the end of the month. The crowds are listed as “sometimes” here, so you might have a few others with the same idea, but that clean, cross-offshore wind will make it worth competing for a wave.

This is Rusty, signing off.

Read more