Cabrillo Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a long look ahead for Cabrillo Point, and I’m going to be straight with you – it’s a bit of a slow burner. The first week and a half is pretty much a write-off for any decent waves, so don’t bother paddling out until we hit the back end of the month.

The opening stretch from July 14th all the way through to July 23rd is a real bummer. The swell is tiny, mostly around 1ft to 3ft, and it’s coming from the SSW or SW. The energy is weak to moderate at best, with numbers like 131 (weak energy) early on, only climbing into the 300s later. But the real killer is the wind. It’s either cross, cross-on, or straight onshore for most of these days, making for choppy, bumpy, and just plain ugly conditions. The water temp is a warm 69°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, over 2° above average, but that’s about the only thing going for it. Everything is flagged as “poor surf conditions” with a score of zero. There’s just nothing to get excited about.

Then, on July 24th, things start to shift. The swell picks up a bit, and we start seeing some real energy. The 24th Friday morning shows 3ft of S swell with a 14-second period, and energy jumps to 621 (moderate wave energy). The wind is light and cross-onshore, so it’s still a bit messy. The afternoon gets a bit bigger with 4ft and a 16-second period, energy hitting 1091 (strong wave energy), but a moderate cross-shore wind keeps it from being perfect. It’s still only “marginal” at best.

Now, the standout window is the morning of July 25th, Saturday. This is the best we’re going to see in this 16-day stretch. The swell bumps up to 5ft from the S with a 15-second period (long period groundswell), and the energy is pumping at 1424 (strong wave energy). The wind is a gentle cross-shore, which is a major positive. This will be clean, lined-up surf at this point break. For an advanced surfer, this is the one to circle on your calendar. It’s not a beginner wave at this size – over 5ft is a bit much for the learners. The period is long, so expect longer lulls between sets, but the waves that come through will have some punch. Crowds are “sometimes” an issue here, so be ready for company.

The 25th afternoon drops off slightly to 5ft with a 14-second period, and the wind gets a bit stronger from the WSW, so it won’t be as clean as the morning.

After that, July 26th through the 29th drops back into the marginal zone. The swell stays around 2ft to 3ft, with decent energy in the 400 to 700 range, but the wind is back onshore or cross-onshore. It’s just not worth the drive unless you’re desperate.

So, to wrap it up: the first 10 days are a flat, wind-affected mess. The only real hope is the morning of Saturday, July 25th, with a solid 5ft S swell and clean conditions. That’s your one true standout. After that, it’s back to small and choppy. Don’t expect much else for the rest of the window.

Rusty.

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