Bay Head Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s chew the fat on Bay Head. Honestly, it’s a rough start. For the next week and a half, the ocean is basically asleep. The wind is a nuisance, and the swell is a no-show.

First up, Saturday, September 5th. It’s a flat start. You’re looking at a pathetic 1ft dribble from the east, with a cross-on breeze from the ESE at 3 mph. The water is a weird 75°, which is about 4° warmer than usual – feels like a bath, but that’s the only thing worth mentioning.

The next few days are a total write-off. Sunday sees a little more energy, maybe 3ft, but it’s short-period, choppy junk from the east-northeast. The combined energy is weak, reading 47 and 51. Not worth a paddle.

The whole week is a flat, windy mess. Monday and Tuesday are tiny, with waves dropping to 1ft. The wind does swing offshore for a few mornings, from the north-northwest and west-northwest, keeping the surface clean, but there’s zero push from the ocean. The combined energy on Wednesday morning, September 9th, is a laughable 8. It’s a dead flat spell that stretches all the way through the middle of the month.

There’s a tiny glimmer on Thursday afternoon, September 10th, when the wind finally goes offshore from the west-southwest at 6 mph. The swell is still only 3ft from the south, with a short period, but the combined energy climbs to 65. The conditions are described as “surfable but very ordinary”. It’s a one out of ten, and that’s the best we’ll see for a while.

The next week is more of the same – small, messy, and mostly side-shore winds. The combined energy stays in the low double digits, barely breaking 50. It’s a genuine drought.

Now, here’s the curveball. Look out to Thursday, September 17th. The models are showing a sudden, violent spike. A 10ft swell from the east-northeast is forecast to hammer the coast, with a combined energy reading of 1180 – that’s a massive, powerful pulse. The wind is expected to be light and cross-shore from the north at 6 mph, which would be clean. But – and this is a huge but – the guidance is screaming: "the swell is predicted to be too big for this break." This is a beach/jetty spot, and a 10ft wave with an 8-second period from the east is going to be a dangerous close-out, a real washing machine. It’s for the absolute top-tier experts only. The Friday morning after that, the swell drops to 8ft, but the wind is onshore from the east-northeast, making it a complete mess.

The following Saturday, September 19th, things settle down a bit. We get a 5ft easterly swell, and the wind goes light and cross-off from the southwest in the afternoon. The combined energy is 515, which is strong, and the conditions are called “very good”. This is the one to watch. It’s a solid, clean, and powerful day, but still a heavy wave for a beginner.

So, the bottom line: the first nine days are a total loss. The only true standout, if you’re an expert, is the afternoon of Thursday, September 17th, but it’s a dangerous, oversized beast. The more realistic call for the best surf on offer is the afternoon of Saturday, September 19th, with a solid 5ft from the east-southeast, clean faces, and a lot of energy. That’s your window.

Rusty.

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