Bay Head Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. Looking over the next couple of weeks for this stretch of coast, it’s a pretty quiet picture for the most part. We’ve got a long, flat spell ahead before things start to rumble back to life. Don’t get too excited just yet, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

The forecast kicks off with a real dud. Tuesday the 15th is tiny, with a weak 2ft of onshore junk and that ENE wind making a mess of things. There’s barely any energy out there, with a combined energy of just 46. The water’s sitting at 73°, which is a notable 4° warmer than the norm for this time of year—that’s a real treat if you do get in, but the surf itself is a no-go. This flat, poor run continues for days. We’re looking at a solid stretch of nothing. The 16th, 17th, and 18th are all under 2ft and pretty much unsurfable. The energy readings are in the teens and twenties, just nothing with any push. The swell that is there is short-period windswell, mostly under 8 seconds, and the winds are all over the place. It’s just not happening.

We finally see a tiny bump of energy around Saturday the 19th, with the swell picking up to 2-3ft, but it’s messy cross-onshore wind and the energy is still weak, under 100. Sunday the 20th cleans up a touch with some cross-offshore wind from the SW, but the swell drops right back down to that ankle-to-knee high range. It’s still a poor call. The first real sign of some power arrives on Monday the 21st. That ENE swell pushes up to 4ft with a combined energy of 128, which is moderate. But, and it’s a big but, the wind is cross-onshore and the period is a short 6 seconds, so it’s going to be lumpy and uninviting.

After that, it’s back to small for a few more days. We grind through the 22nd and 23rd with more weak, short-period stuff. Then on Thursday the 24th, something interesting finally happens. The morning shows a hint of promise: 3ft of ESE swell, a 6-second period, but a *glassy* wind state with the energy at 74. The call is "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions." It’s the first time the report isn’t a complete write-off. It won’t be winning any awards, but for a wave-starved surfer, it might just scratch the itch. The wind then swings to a cross-offshore SSW in the afternoon, but the swell backs down.

The following week, things start to look a little more interesting, though it stays on the small side. A strong offshore WNW wind on Friday the 25th will clean up the small 1ft leftovers, but there’s just not enough size. The 27th and 28th remain tiny and clean with glassy mornings, but again, nothing with any push.

The light at the end of the tunnel comes on Tuesday the 30th of September. We finally see a proper pulse of energy. The morning shows 4ft of ENE swell, and the combined energy jumps up to a strong 300. The period is still short, only 8 seconds, but this is the first time the ocean is really waking up. It’s still a cross-shore wind, so it won’t be perfect, but there’s finally some real power behind it. The afternoon holds at 4ft with a slightly better 9-second period and energy of 301. This is the standout of the whole run, but it’s a full two weeks out, so treat it as promising rather than a sure thing. The direction is a touch east of the optimum, but it’s the only real swell event on the board. Bay Head is a beach and jetty setup, and with that much energy and a cross-shore wind, there might be some fun ones if you can find a bank. It could be a bit much for the beginners, but for the rest of us, it’s the one to circle on the calendar.

So, bottom line: hunker down for a long, flat spell. The first week and a half is a write-off. The 24th offers a small, clean window. But the real hope is that Tuesday the 30th finally delivers some serious swell.

Rusty out.

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