Waimanalo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. The truth is, looking at this 16-day window, we’ve got a rough patch ahead. The trade winds are going to be howling from the ENE for days on end, and they’re not giving us a break. The swell is there, but it’s short-period, wind-driven junk, and the wind is just ruining it. For the first week and a half, nearly every session is described as "poor surf conditions," so I’m not going to sugarcoat it.

We’re starting off with nothing. Friday the 28th of August through to Monday the 7th of September is pretty much a write-off. The wind is a solid 18 to 25 mph from the ENE, sometimes cross-on, mostly onshore, and the waves are a messy 5ft to 8ft with a short, weak period of 6 to 8 seconds. The combined wave energy is moderate, climbing from 239 to over 1000 by the 4th, but it’s all just lumpy, blown-out crud. For a beginner spot like Waimanalo, that 7ft to 8ft is already getting too big for the less experienced, and the wind is making it a total mess. No standouts here.

Now, there’s a glimmer on the horizon. Friday the 4th of September and Saturday the 5th see the swell period jump to 11 and 12 seconds, and the energy cranks up to 1263 – that’s strong energy. The swell is still 7ft from the ENE. The problem is, the wind is still smashing it at 22 mph, and it’s onshore or cross-on. That’s a lot of power, but it’s going to be a battle. This is really only for the hardcore, experienced crew who don’t mind a beatdown.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is a bit of a window early in the second week. Look at Tuesday the 8th of September. The swell is pumping 10ft to 12ft from the ENE, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 1623. That’s a lot of water moving. But here’s the kicker: the wind is still a strong 25 mph onshore. At 12ft, this is strictly for experts only. For a beach break like Waimanalo, with that much onshore wind, I’d be honest and say this setup looks more interesting for the kite surfers than the paddle crew. The waves will be big and unruly, but the wind is going to hold them open.

We finally get a bit of relief late in the window. By Friday the 11th of September, the wind drops right down to 9 to 12 mph, with a gentle cross-shore or cross-on breeze. The swell drops to a more manageable 4ft to 5ft from the NE with a 9-second period. The energy is still moderate at 349 to 389. This is the only time in the whole outlook where the conditions might actually be clean enough for a decent surf. The water temp is 81°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no wetsuit needed. But this is a long way off, so it’s promising but not a sure thing.

Rusty.

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