Waimanalo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Imperial

Alright, let’s talk in feet and miles per hour. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle, I gotta be honest. We’ve got a real flat spell on the horizon, but there’s a glimmer of something much bigger way out there if you’re patient.

So, the first thing you need to know: there’s really nothing to surf right now. We’re looking at a solid stretch of poor surf conditions from the start all the way through to the end of September 1st. That’s a long, boring gap, nearly two weeks of onshore rubbish and wonky swell. The wind is just a nightmare – a solid 19 to 22 mph from the ENE, hammering the coast. It’s not just onshore, it’s often cross-onshore, making for lumpy, choppy, and pretty much un-rideable conditions. The swell that does show up is short-period stuff, mostly 6 to 7 seconds, which just doesn’t have any push or shape. The combined energy is weak to moderate, with numbers like 270 up to 382, but it’s all wasted because of the wind. Water temp is sitting at 81°F, which is about average for the time of year, not that you’ll be in the water much.

The first real chance of anything comes on the morning of September 1st. The swell bumps up a bit to 8 ft from the ENE, with a period stretching to 9 seconds. That gives us a combined energy of 785, which is solid moderate. But the wind is still a fresh 22 mph onshore. It’s still poor surf conditions, but it’s a change. For a beginner spot like Waimanalo (Oahu), this is getting too big – anything over 5 ft is a handful for beginners, and this is pushing 8 ft. The wind is not doing it any favours.

The real standout, the one that’s got me talking, is the weekend of September 5th and 6th. Check this out: on the 5th, we’ve got 7 ft of swell from the ENE, but the period jumps to 12 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell! The combined energy is a massive 1181 and 1187 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind is still onshore from the NE at 16-19 mph, but it’s a cleaner onshore, not the cross-onshore trash we’ve been dealing with.

Then on September 6th, it gets serious. The swell hits 10 ft from the ENE with a very long period of 12 seconds. The combined energy is a beastly 2360. That is a lot of ocean energy. But here’s the catch: Waimanalo is a beach break. A long-period swell like this, over 11 seconds, can break too straight on a beach and be a bit closed out. It’s also over 8 ft, so that’s expert territory only. It might be a better look for the reefs or points on the North Shore, but that’s not what we’re looking at here. The wind is still a fresh 19 mph onshore. It’s a massive, powerful, dangerous swell, but the conditions are still not clean. I’d say it’s a promising but less certain look for the real experienced crew, but for the average surfer, this is a stay-on-the-beach kind of day. The crowds at Waimanalo can be an issue sometimes, so keep that in mind if you’re even thinking about it.

The week after that, from the 7th, the swell drops back to a more manageable 8 ft with a 9-second period, and the wind eases to a moderate 16 mph onshore. Better, but still not great.

So, to sum it up: the first two weeks are a write-off. The weekend of the 5th and 6th of September has the biggest, most powerful swell of the window, but it’s raw, windy, and only for experts. That’s the best on offer, but it’s a far cry from perfect.

Rusty.

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