Waimanalo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, drawn-out stretch of poor surf with nothing to get excited about for a good ten days.

The whole period kicks off with a persistent onshore wind from the ENE, which is exactly the wrong direction for Waimanalo. That wind is going to be chopping everything up, making it pretty much unrideable. The swell is small and weak, with combined wave energy barely cracking 200 (199 on Monday morning) and even that drops with a short, weak period around 7-8 seconds. There’s just no energy in the water, and the wind is a mess.

We’ll see a bit of a rise in swell size by Thursday, July 23rd, with waves up to 6 ft, but it’s still onshore with a fresh breeze, and the energy (367) is still moderate but messy. That trend continues right through the weekend, with waves hitting 7 ft on Friday July 24th and Saturday July 25th, but the wind is still howling from the ENE at 22 mph, making it lumpy, choppy, and just plain ugly. The combined energy does climb to 785 and even 1009, but without good wind, it’s all for nothing.

The only glimmer of hope comes later, and it’s a long way off. On Sunday, July 26th, we see a classic groundswell from the E with a very long period of 16 seconds. The swell drops back to 5 ft, but the energy is massive – 1567 – meaning there’s real power. The problem is, the wind is still onshore from the NE at 16 mph. That’s a tough one. That long-period groundswell will be breaking straight and fast at Waimanalo, which is a beach break. It’s really only going to be workable for experts on a very good day if the wind eases off.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of Wednesday, July 29th. The swell is 7 ft from the ENE with a period of 11 seconds, and the wind is a light breeze from the NE at only 6 mph. The combined energy is a solid 963. This is the one window where conditions might be borderline okay. The wind is light and onshore, but at 6 mph it’s not going to destroy the wave face. For a beginner spot like Waimanalo, 7 ft is getting a bit big, so it’s more for the experienced crew. The water temperature is sitting at 80°, which is about average for the time of year, so no need for a thick wetsuit.

Honestly, for the first 10 days, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The wind is consistent and the swell is decent, but for a surfer, it’s a write-off. After that, the long-range promise on the 26th and 29th is there, but it’s a long wait and far from certain. Keep an eye on the wind, because that’s the only thing that could turn this around.

Rusty.

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