Waimanalo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, my friends, Rusty here again. Let me break down the next couple of weeks on this coast in feet and miles per hour for you.

To be straight with you, the outlook is a real bummer. Every single session in the 16-day window is showing "poor surf conditions." That’s a long dry spell, and around here, a blank stretch like this is just part of the deal sometimes.

The only spot on the map is Waimanalo. It’s an exposed, beginner-friendly beach break that’s fairly consistent and works best when the swell is from the Northeast. The water is a warm 81°, which is pretty average for this time of year.

The main problem is the wind. It’s blowing onshore from the ENE or NE the entire time. We never get that sweet, clean offshore breeze. The swell direction is mostly from the ENE or NE, not the ideal straight NE, and the periods are real short and punchless, mostly under 8 seconds.

Starting Saturday the 12th through Sunday the 13th, the surf is tiny and weak. Swell heights are under 3ft with onshore winds blowing 9-12 mph. The wave energy is low. You’d be fighting bumps on waves barely breaking.

From Monday the 14th to Tuesday the 15th, it's more of the same—small waves around 2-3ft—and the wind turns cross-onshore, making it choppy. It’s just poor.

By Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th, the swell actually starts to build. By Thursday afternoon we’re looking at a 7-8ft ENE swell with 8-10 second periods and the energy jumps into a strong range. But the wind is a nasty onshore 22 mph from the NE. That much wind on that much swell at a beach break is going to turn it into a total washing machine. Honestly, that setup would be way more fun for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

The rough, onshore pattern sticks around through the rest of the period. Then on Friday the 27th, the whole chart changes. The swell direction swings to a long-period NNW groundswell at 17 seconds, and the energy goes through the roof (968-1443). The forecast wave height is a manageable 3-4ft for that kind of groundswell. The problem? The wind is still a solid 15 mph onshore from the ENE. A long-period swell like that holds a ton of power, and it’s usually best on a point or reef. At a beach break like Waimanalo with that wind, you’ll see long, cleanup sets roll through, but the stuff in between will be a mess.

That’s the story. For the next two weeks, there’s not a single day I could call a standout. If you’re itching for a surf, maybe keep an eye on that long-period pulse on the 27th, but don’t get your hopes up. Forecasts can always change for the better, but right now, this coastline is best left alone.

Rusty.

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