Waimanalo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what we’re looking at for the next couple of weeks. Short version: it’s a long wait for anything worth paddling for.

Overall Pattern

We’re in for a rough stretch. The wind is hammering from the ENE, straight onshore or cross-onshore, and it’s just ruining the surface. The water temp is sitting right on 80°F for the first break, which is pretty average for the time of year – nothing unusual. The swell energy is actually building, but with that wind, it’s a total mess. The only real chance of a wave comes right at the end, and it’s a big, heavy one that’s not for the casual surfer.

The Grind (1st to 15th August)

From the start on Tuesday the 4th through to Saturday the 15th, it’s a real grind. Every single report is “poor surf conditions.” The wind is a constant 12 to 22 mph from the ENE, sometimes swinging to NE, but it’s always onshore. The swell height bumps around from 3 ft to 8 ft, but with such short periods – mostly 5 to 8 seconds – and that wind, it’s just lumpy, choppy, and ugly. The combined energy climbs from a weak 81 (Friday the 7th morning) up to a solid 604 (Saturday the 15th afternoon), but you wouldn’t know it from the surface. There’s a total gap of over a week with nothing to recommend. Don’t bother with a board; that constant cross-onshore breeze and lumpy water is more suited for a kite.

The Big Late-Week Pulse (16th to 18th August)

Now, things get serious, but dangerous. On Sunday the 16th, the swell jumps to 10 ft from the ENE, with the combined energy hitting 1315 (strong to very strong). The period is still short at 8 seconds, but the power is there. By Monday the 17th, it peaks at 12 ft with energy hitting 2104 (very strong). This is expert territory only. The wind is still onshore, but it backs off a little to 16 mph. This is the standout window, but it’s a serious one. The wave height is way over 8 ft, so it’s not for the faint of heart. The swell is from the ENE, which is a tricky direction for Waimanalo (United States), and with that short period, it’s going to be a wall of white water. Only the hardcore need apply.

The Fade (19th August)

It starts to settle down on Wednesday the 19th, with the swell dropping to 6 ft from the NE. The energy is still moderate at 456, but the wind is still cross-onshore and choppy. It’s an improvement, but nothing to get excited about. The best bet is the 17th and 18th, if you’ve got the skills and the nerve. Otherwise, wait for the next system.

Rusty.

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