Waimanalo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about this forecast. It’s a tough one. Honestly, there’s not a single session in the whole 16-day window that I’d paddle out for at Waimanalo. Clean, ridable surf? Barely a whisper. The whole period is a write-off for decent waves.

The water temp is sitting at 27°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days, from Monday the 31st of August right through the first week, are all blown out. We’ve got a solid 7 ft to 8 ft swell from the ENE, but the wind is hammering onshore at 22 to 28 mph. The combined energy is moderate to strong – hitting 429 early on, then climbing to over 1000 by Friday the 4th of September – but with that wind, it’s just a washing machine. Short period, 7 to 8 seconds, so it’s messy and lumpy. No good for anyone.

The weekend of the 5th and 6th of September sees a bigger, longer-period groundswell roll in – 8 ft from the ENE, period stretching to 13 seconds, and the combined energy jumps way up to 2109. That’s a lot of power, but again, the wind is on it, cross-onshore and choppy. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not clean. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

We get a tiny window of cleaner conditions on Tuesday the 8th of September, with a cross-offshore wind and a smaller 4 ft NE swell, but the period is short at 9 seconds and the energy is moderate at 473. The call is “poor surf conditions” – so it’s not worth the drive.

After that, it’s a long, slow fade. From the 9th of September onward, the swell drops away, the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, and the energy drops to weak levels – 129, 110, even 79 by the 14th. There’s a tiny pulse of long-period NW groundswell on the 15th of September – 3 ft at 14 seconds – but it’s tiny and the wind is still on it.

So, the bottom line: there’s a gap of almost the entire 16-day forecast with no real surf worth chasing. The wind is relentless, the swell is either too big and blown out or too small and just as messy. Waimanalo is a fairly consistent spot, so it’s a bit of a bummer, but sometimes the trade winds just lock in and ruin everything. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d leave the boards in the shed.

Rusty.

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