Waimanalo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. We’ve got a 16-day window on the go, and Waimanalo is the only break on the cards. I’m gonna level with you – the outlook is a tough one to swallow. The whole 16 days is a run of poor surf conditions, every single session rated as poor. That’s a long stretch of low-quality surf, and honestly, it’s a bit of a heartbreaker for a spot that can be a lot of fun.

The water temp is sitting at 79°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so that’s one thing you don’t have to worry about.

Let’s start from the beginning. Wednesday the 8th kicks things off with a 7 ft swell from the ENE, but it’s a short-period 7-second windswell. The wind is a fresh cross-onshore breeze at 22 mph, so it’s lumpy and messy. The combined energy is moderate at 482. That’s about as good as it gets for the first week, which tells you everything. The wind stays honking from the ENE, mostly onshore, with speeds around 19 to 25 mph all through the week. The swell is a constant 6 ft to 7 ft, always from the ENE, and the period rarely gets above 8 seconds. It’s just a long stretch of fresh, lumpy, onshore slop. Thursday the 9th, Friday the 10th, Saturday the 11th, Sunday the 12th, Monday the 13th, Tuesday the 14th – all the same story. The afternoon of Friday the 17th sees a jump to 8 ft ENE, with moderate energy reaching 590, but again, the wind is onshore and fresh. Saturday the 18th pushes the swell to 8 ft from the E, with a bit more period at 8 seconds, and energy at 775 – still moderate, but the wind is still onshore at 19-22 mph. That’s getting up there in size, and with the onshore wind, it’s just a messy, blown-out 8 ft. That’s expert-only territory for size, but the quality is poor, so it’s more of a washing machine than a wave.

Now, here’s the interesting bit, and it’s the only real standout in the whole run. On Tuesday the 21st, we see a big shift. Swell drops right down to 3 ft, but it arrives from the E with a *very long period* of 17 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps right up to 877 – almost strong. The wind backs off to a moderate 16 mph from the NE, still onshore, but way better than what we’ve had. The swell is still small, but that long period means it’ll have some serious shape and push. The problem is, Waimanalo is a beach break, and long-period swells like this can break too straight and be hard to ride here. But if you’re a competent surfer, the early morning of the 21st could offer some surprisingly clean, long-lined waves on the sets. The 4 ft E swell with a 16-second period on the afternoon of the 21st is similar, with energy at 876. Wednesday the 22nd still has a 3 ft E swell at 15 seconds, but the wind picks up to a cross-onshore 12-19 mph, making it choppy. After that, it drops back to the short-period, onshore junk for the 23rd.

So, look. The whole 16 days is a write-off for quality, except for that one window on the 21st and maybe the 22nd. That’s your best bet. If you’re desperate for a paddle, the 21st is the only date with a pulse. The rest is just a solid run of onshore, wind-affected grovel. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a real bummer of a forecast. Just remember, it tends not to stay this poor for long, and forecasts can change. But for now, it’s a hard pass.

Rusty.

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