Waimanalo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Grab a coffee, because honestly, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a tough watch. Let's break it down.

The story for the next sixteen days is pretty grim for a paddle surfer. We’re looking at a long run of onshore winds and grovelly conditions. The water temp here is sitting around 80°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing while you watch the close-outs.

Right off the bat, from Saturday the 8th right through almost the entire first week, it’s all onshore ENE winds and poor surf. The swell is mostly in that 4 ft to 6 ft range, but with a short period of just 6 to 8 seconds, it’s just going to be a messy, lumpy wall of whitewater. The energy levels are weak to moderate (between 157 and 325), and the wind is blowing straight onshore. It’s going to be choppy and ugly. Honestly, through the week of the 8th to the 14th, you’re better off finding something else to do.

Now, things get a lot bigger, but not better. Around the 15th and 16th of August, we get a significant pulse. The swell jumps right up. On Saturday the 15th, we’re looking at a solid 10 ft to 12 ft ENE swell, but it’s thumping in with 25 mph NE winds. The combined energy hits 1320 and then 1759 – that’s strong, powerful stuff. But it’s blown to bits. The wind is howling. This is really only for the most hardcore, experienced chargers with a death wish. For a beginner, that’s way too big, and the conditions are hostile.

There is a single moment that almost saves the run. On Sunday afternoon, the 16th of August, the wind switches to a light cross-offshore breeze. The swell is still a massive 10 ft from the ENE (1321 energy). The file says the wind and tide are favorable, but honestly, even then, it’s a 10 ft close-out machine at a beach break. If you’re absolute top-tier, you might get one or two, but it’s still heavy-duty.

After that, the tail end of the second week from the 17th onward, the swell drops back down into that 5 ft to 7 ft range, but the wind stubbornly stays onshore from the ENE. It’s a classic case of the swell being there but the wind ruining it.

If we are being brutally honest, there is no standout session here for a surfer. The swell is either too small and windy, or too big and windy. For beginners: the entire period is not recommended. The few calm-ish moments come with waves over 8 ft, which are firmly in the expert zone. Honestly, looking at the persistent strong onshore winds and the significant swell, this setup looks a lot more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer at Waimanalo.

This is a rough one, folks. It just seems to be the way it is right now. Let's hope things change.

Rusty.

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