Waimanalo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at the coming weeks for Waimanalo. I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough run. The forecast is pretty much a long, drawn-out story of onshore winds and messy surf. There’s only one real window where things settle down enough to even think about paddling out, and even then, it’s not for the faint of heart.

The pattern right now is all about strong trade winds – that’s an ENE flow – and it’s blowing straight onshore, or cross-onshore at best, for almost the entire 16-day outlook. The swell is pumping at times, but it’s completely blown out. The combined energy of all swells directed here starts off moderate, hitting 513 (moderate) on Friday the 14th, but it’s just poor surf. The wind is 22 mph from the NE, and it’s onshore. That’s a no-go.

That Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th see a big jump in energy, with the swell hitting 10 ft and the combined energy rocketing up to 1333 (strong) and then 1527 (strong). But the wind is a near gale at 31 mph. The break is exposed, but with that kind of wind, it’s unsurfable. Sunday the 16th is the real beast – 13 ft of swell from the east with energy over 2800 (very strong) – but the wind is cross-onshore and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. The note says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. For a beginner spot like Waimanalo, that’s a hard pass. Only experts would even think about it, and even then, the period is a short 9 seconds, so it’s just a churning mess.

Monday the 17th through to the end of August is a grim repeat. The combined energy drops back into the 100s and 200s (weak to moderate), but the wind stays stubbornly from the ENE, blowing onshore or cross-onshore. The swell is a mix of 3 ft to 7 ft, but the period is short (7-8 seconds), meaning weak, lumpy waves. The wind is a fresh breeze (16-22 mph) most of the time, so it’s just lumpy, choppy, and ugly.

The only glimmer of hope is a small window on Sunday afternoon, August 16th. The wind drops to 12 mph from the ESE, a cross-on breeze, and the swell is 10 ft from the east. The wave comment says “wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break.” That’s a real tease. The combined energy is 1359 (strong). For a strong, experienced surfer, that afternoon might be the one time the wind lays down enough to get a few, but it’s still way too big for a beginner spot. The water temperature is about average for this time of year – no major anomaly to report.

The rest of the run, from the 18th onward, is a long, flat stretch of poor surf. The swell drops to 2 ft to 4 ft, with energy below 200 (weak), and the wind stays onshore. There’s a gap of several days with no recommendations at all. It’s a tough stretch for Waimanalo.

So, the standout? Honestly, there isn’t a true standout. If you’re an expert and you’re desperate, the Sunday afternoon, August 16th, is your only shot. The swell is 10 ft from the east, the wind is manageable, but it’s still a big, messy wave. For everyone else, it’s a skip. The crowds are sometimes an issue at Waimanalo, but with this forecast, you’d have the place to yourself.

Hang in there. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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