Waimanalo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s on the menu for the Waimanalo stretch.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you—this is a rough one. The whole 16-day window is looking like a write-off for good paddle surfing. There’s a solid run of onshore ENE winds that just won’t let up, and the swell is mostly short-period, wind-affected slop from the east. The water temp is sitting at 79°F, which is about bang on average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a total bust. From Friday the 17th right through the rest of July, it’s all “poor surf conditions” with moderate to fresh onshore winds. The combined wave energy (174) is weak at first, and it builds through the weekend but the wind never goes clean. The swell is coming from the east and east-northeast, which is the exposure at Waimanalo, but the period is short—mostly 6 to 8 seconds—so it’s all choppy, bumpy, and messy. Anything over 5 ft on Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th is just gonna be blown-out, but with that short period, it’s not holding any shape. Beginners should steer clear of those 6 ft days.

The pattern doesn’t shift much through the first week. The wind stays onshore, and the swell hangs around in the 4 ft to 6 ft range with that same short period. The combined energy picks up a bit—moderate values like 220 to 360—but without clean wind, it’s just frustrating. There’s a small window on Tuesday the 22nd where the wind goes cross-onshore, but it’s still lumpy and not worth paddling out for.

Heading into the second week, things get weird. On Sunday the 26th of July, a long-period swell arrives—17 seconds, from the east, with a massive combined wave energy of 1457. That’s groundswell, with serious power. But here’s the kicker: the wind is still a fresh onshore ENE at 18-22 mph, and the swell is hitting an exposed beach break. With that kind of period, it’s going to be a close-out mess, breaking straight and fast. This one is for the tow-in crew or, more realistically, a kite surfer’s dream. The conditions are still “poor surf conditions” for paddle surfing.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th keep that long-period energy (16-15 seconds, combined energy over 1900), but the wind stays onshore. The swell height is 6 ft to 7 ft, but with that long period and onshore wind, it’s not going to be fun. Tuesday the 28th morning gets a “marginal” label, but it’s still onshore wind, so I’m not getting excited.

By Wednesday the 29th, the period drops to 12 seconds, and the energy falls to 837. Still onshore wind. The last few days of July and into August 1st are more of the same: short-period bump with onshore wind. The only standout is that long-period groundswell from the 26th to 28th, but it’s completely wasted by the wind. If you’re a kite surfer, that might be your window. For the rest of us, it’s a long, flat, windy run.

Bottom line: There’s nothing here worth paddling out for. The whole 16-day forecast is a bust. It’s a blank run, and that’s just how it goes sometimes. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d save the wax.

Rusty.

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