Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with you straight off the bat – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper surf. We’ve got a solid window of small, weak swell and mostly onshore wind. It’s not going to be one of those times where you're scrambling for your board. You might be better off finding something else to do for a while.

The water’s running at about 72° right now, which is a solid 7° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a big deal – it’s not just a little warmer, it’s really noticeable, so at least if you are just going for a swim, it’ll be nice.

We’re looking at a long stretch of nothing much until around August 9th. From the 8th, the swell is tiny, around 2ft, with periods around 15-17 seconds. It’s a long-period swell, which is good for shape, but there’s just not enough energy in it. The combined energy is only around 215 on Saturday morning, which is weak. It’s all onshore wind too, which is going to make it messy. That’s a no-go.

The 9th and 10th are the same story – small, weak, and onshore. The wind is light, which is something, but the swell is just too gutless. The energy numbers are all below 200, which is nothing to get excited about. You’re talking about knee-high slop at best. Not worth the paddle.

We’ve got a bit of a lull with the swell dropping to 1ft on the 11th and 12th, with period dropping to 13–14 seconds. The energy is really low, down in the 140s. This is as flat as it gets. If you see anyone out there, they’re just doing it for the exercise.

It’s not until August 14th, a Friday, that things start to even look a little interesting. The swell is still tiny at 1ft, but the period is up to 19 seconds. However, the wind is still cross-onshore and the energy is only 246. Still marginal. The afternoon shows a touch more swell (2ft) and more energy (329), but it’s still onshore and messy. That’s a frustrating one – you can see the swell trying, but the wind is just ruining it.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th is the most promising of the whole run, but that isn't saying much. On Saturday the 15th, the swell bumps up to 2ft in the morning and 3ft in the afternoon, with a period of 16 seconds. The energy climbs to 339 and then 374 – we’re finally getting into moderate territory. The wind is still onshore, but it’s light. On Sunday the 16th, the morning looks best with 3ft of swell and a 16-second period, and the energy is up to 410 – that’s the biggest number we’ll see. But again, it’s onshore. This might be the pick of the week, but we're still talking waist-high waves that will be a bit on the soft side. It’d be a great day for a longboard or a funboard, and definitely not a day for a shortboard. The water will be warm, but the surf is just okay.

After that, it’s a slow fade out. From the 17th through the 23rd, we drop right back down to 1ft – 2ft with periods in the 13–16 second range. The energy stays moderate at best, with a few readings in the 200s and 300s, but the onshore wind just won’t let up. The whole thing just never gets going. There are some mornings with a cross-shore breeze on the 19th, but the swell is too small and the direction is the same as the wind, which is never a good sign.

So, to be honest, if you’re desperate for a paddle, the mornings of the 15th, 16th, and maybe the 17th are your best shots. It's not going to be epic, but you might get a few clean ones if you’re lucky and pick your corner. Otherwise, it looks like a long, flat spell. This is just one of those times where the ocean is telling you to stay on the beach.

Rusty.

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