Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ over at Toes Over (beach/jetty) for the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch. The water is sitting at a balmy 73°F which is much warmer than usual for this time of year, a solid 8°F above average. That’s the only thing that’s really pumping here.

Right from the start, this Saturday the 12th, we’ve got a tiny 2ft swell from the SW, but with onshore wind and poor surf conditions, it’s a no-go. That sets the tone. For the first week, from Saturday the 12th all the way through to Friday the 18th, the surf is mostly poor. You’ll see a bit of weak to moderate energy (around 155 to 292 in the combined swell energy), but the wind is never on your side – mostly onshore or cross-onshore. It’s frustrating. The swell period does climb from 14 seconds up to a very long 20 seconds by Tuesday the 15th, but with the wind state so messy, it’s not doing us any favours. That long-period groundswell would be a dream at a point break or reef, but at a beach/jetty setup like this, it’s likely to break too straight and be a real handful. Plus, the heights are still pathetic – only 1.0ft to 2ft.

We finally start to see a glimmer of hope from Wednesday the 16th. The swell ticks up to 2ft, the combined energy gets into the moderate range (212), and the morning shows are marked as "marginal." The wind is a light cross-onshore from the S, so it’s not clean, but it’s the best we’ve seen. Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th are similar: 2ft to 2ft, moderate energy (228 to 285), but still with onshore winds. It’s a tease.

Now, the standout window looks to be around Monday the 21st into Tuesday the 22nd. Monday morning has 2ft from the SW, combined energy hitting 310 (solid moderate), and the wind is a light cross-onshore from the S. It’s still not glassy, but it’s the best looking period in the whole 16-day run. The swell period is a nice 17 seconds, giving some proper groundswell shape. This is your best bet if you’re desperate for a paddle, but don’t expect perfection.

After that, it trails off again. Tuesday afternoon, the wind goes onshore, and by Wednesday the 23rd, the energy drops back to 207 and the swell period shortens. The last few days, from Friday the 25th to Sunday the 27th, we’re back to poor surf with 1ft to 3ft and onshore winds. Sunday the 27th afternoon does have a burst of energy at 335, but it’s paired with onshore wind again, so it’s more likely a kiter’s session than a paddle surfer’s dream.

Bottom line: This is a lean run. No true standouts. If I had to pick one, it’s Monday the 21st morning for the biggest swell and best energy, but keep your expectations in the car park. With the break being fairly consistent but the conditions so poor, it’s not gonna stay like this forever – forecasts can change. Hang in there.

Rusty.

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