Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. The 16-day window for Toes Over is a bit of a mixed bag, but don’t write it off just yet. The long-range outlook has some promise, but we’ve got to be patient.

The early part of the forecast is a real struggle. Starting Thursday the 16th of July, we’ve got a weak 1ft swell coming from the SW with a period of 16 seconds drifting in, but the wind is onshore and the combined wave energy is a measly 160 (weak). The water temp is sitting at a very unusual 70°, which is over 5° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a real standout. The surf is poor, and there’s nothing to recommend. Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th stays in the same boat: tiny 1ft to 2ft SW swell, with periods all over the place, but the wind is either cross-on or onshore, leaving the waves messy. Combined energy stays in the weak to moderate range (139 to 497). The best you can say is it’s consistent in being poor.

Toward the end of the week, Monday the 20th of July afternoon shows a glimmer of hope with a 2ft SW swell and period of 16 seconds, but the combined energy climbs to 513 (moderate) and the commentary shifts to “marginal.” Still, the wind is onshore, so it’s not worth a paddle. Tuesday the 21st through Thursday the 23rd of July sees the swell bump up a bit to 3ft-3ft, mostly from the SSW or S, with long periods between 14-16 seconds. The energy is building (366 to 544), but the wind is either cross-on or onshore, keeping the surf messy. The best call is “marginal” at best.

Now, into the second week, things get more interesting. Friday the 24th of July morning has a 3ft S swell with a period of 14 seconds, light cross-on wind, and the combined energy jumps to 792 (moderate). Still marginal, but it’s getting closer. Saturday the 25th of July morning is the standout in the entire forecast. We’ve got a 4ft SSW swell, period of 13 seconds, and the combined energy hits 871 (moderate). The wind is light and onshore, which is a negative, but the swell is the biggest we’ve seen. For a more advanced surfer, this could be worth a look if the tide and conditions align. It’s the best on offer, but it’s not a classic.

The rest of the second week from Sunday the 26th of July onward is a slow fade. Swell drops back to 2ft-3ft from the SW and SSW, with periods bouncing between 14-19 seconds, and combined energy stays in the moderate range (363 to 810). The wind is mostly onshore or cross-on, keeping the surf “poor” or “marginal.” There’s a pocket of potential on Tuesday the 28th of July morning with a 3ft SSW swell, 18-second period, and light cross-on wind, but it’s not enough to get excited about.

To be honest, there’s nothing here that’s firing. The whole period is a wait-and-see. The best day is Saturday the 25th of July morning, but it’s a “maybe” for the more experienced crew. The crowd factor at Toes Over is listed as “sometimes” busy, so if you do go, you might have the place to yourself. Overall, it’s a lean run. Stay optimistic though – it tends not to stay this flat for long.

Rusty.

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