Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s on offer at Toes Over. Straight up, I’ll be honest with you—this stretch of the forecast is a tough one. The whole 16-day window is pretty lean, with conditions that just aren’t coming together for a proper paddle session. You’ll see waves most days, but the quality is poor, and the wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore, which is no good for a clean face. The water temp is sitting at 72°F this morning, which is much warmer than normal for the time of year—a real anomaly, over 6°F warmer than usual. That’s a standout oddity for the area.

The first week is a write-off for decent surf. From Tuesday the 11th of August right through to Monday the 18th, it’s a long stretch of small, messy swell with light to moderate onshore winds. The combined energy of all swells is mostly weak to moderate (between 141 and 381), but it’s all blowing onshore, so the waves are junk. The swell heights are tiny, hovering around 1 ft to 3 ft, and while the periods are decent (13 to 19 seconds), indicating long-period groundswell, the wind just ruins any chance of shape. Best described as a frustrating period for the patient.

The only real standout in this whole window is the morning of Wednesday the 19th of August. That’s the one to circle. We’ve got a glassy, clean surface with a light SSE breeze at 5 mph—that’s about as good as it gets for wind. The swell is still small at 2 ft from the SSW, with a period of 15 seconds, giving it some long-period energy. The combined energy jumps to 452 (moderate), which is the highest in the forecast. For a brief moment, the conditions align for a few clean, workable waves. It’s a beach and jetty setup, and while it’s only a small prospect, if you’re desperate, that’s your best shot. The break is fairly consistent, but crowds are possible—sometimes there are people around.

After that morning, it’s back to the same story. The rest of the 19th, and all of the 20th through the 26th are riddled with onshore wind, small swell, and poor surf quality. The combined energy drops off into the low-to-moderate range (115 to 426), and the waves stay small (1.0 ft to 3 ft) with mostly onshore or cross-onshore conditions. A few mornings show up as “marginal” on the 22nd and 25th, but with the wind direction all wrong, they’re not worth getting excited about.

To be blunt, if you’re not a kitesurfer, you’re better off waiting for a better run. The waves are small, the wind is wrong, and the quality is poor. It’s a tough outlook for a paddler.

Rusty.

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