Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and settle in, because I’ve got the full 16-day picture for you. Let’s talk about Toes-Over.

Right off the bat, I’ve got to be straight with you – the next week and a half is a bit of a bust. From Wednesday, the 26th of August, all the way through to the morning of Thursday, the 3rd of September, we’re looking at a real flat spell. The surf is tiny, the conditions are poor, and the combined energy readings are mostly weak, sitting between 172 and 478 (moderate energy). You’ll see a mix of onshore and cross-onshore breezes, and the wave heights are just ankle to knee high. It’s a write-off for a decent paddle.

Now, the water temperature is something to mention. Right now, it’s sitting at 72°, which is 6° warmer than the long-term average for this time of year. That’s very unusual – the water is feeling more like a tropical bath than a typical late-winter/early-spring line-up. You won’t need a thick wetsuit, that’s for sure.

The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t arrive until Thursday morning, the 3rd of September. That’s the standout window in this whole forecast. The morning session is looking like the pick of the bunch. We’ve got a clean 2 ft SSW groundswell rolling in with a period of 14 seconds, and the wind is glassy – a light SSW breeze at 3 mph. The combined energy jumps to 862 (strong wave energy), which tells you there’s some proper oomph behind it. For an advanced break like Toes-Over, this is exactly what you want. The swell direction is SSW, which is a solid match for the optimum SW direction. The waves should be well-shaped, with that longer period giving you longer gaps between sets, making the paddle out easier. Expect very good surf conditions. Crowds are a possibility here, so get in early.

The Thursday afternoon session on the 3rd will still be fun, with 4 ft of SSW swell and a 12-second period, but the wind swings onshore from the SW, so it won’t be as clean as the morning. The combined energy is still moderate at 649.

After that little burst, things settle back down. The rest of the first week of September and into the second week (4th to 10th) is mostly back to small, poor-quality surf. You’ll see some 2 ft to 3 ft waves, but the wind is often onshore or cross-onshore, and the combined energy drops back into the moderate range (200-437). The best of that bunch is maybe the morning of the 5th, with 3 ft SSW swell and a 16-second period, but the cross-onshore wind will put a bit of chop on the face. The 8th of September Tuesday morning has a 2 ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, but it’s still marginal.

Bottom line: If you’ve got a flexible schedule, put a big red circle around Thursday morning, the 3rd of September. That’s the one.

Rusty.

Read more