Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. It’s Rusty.

Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Toes Over are looking pretty flat and frustrating. The whole 16-day window is a tough one. There’s barely a pulse in the water, and what little swell we get is mostly junk. You’ve got a long stretch starting right now where you’re better off checking the tide pools or waxing your board for another day.

We’re looking at small, inconsistent pulses of SSW swell, but the energy is weak. For the first week, from Saturday the 8th right through till at least Thursday the 14th, the best you can hope for is knee-high slop. The combined energy readings are mostly in the low 100s to 200s – that’s weak sauce (141 to 307), and the swell period is all over the place, but mostly short to moderate. The wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore, which just ruins what little shape there is. Saturday morning the 8th had a shot – 2ft of SSW swell coming in at 17 seconds, which is a nice long period, but the onshore wind (SW at 6 mph) killed it, and the water is a very unusual 72°, which is 7° warmer than normal. That’s weird, but it doesn’t make the waves any better.

Honestly, for the first seven or eight days, it’s one poor surf call after another. There’s a few “marginal” tags on the 8th morning, the 14th morning, and the 17th and 18th mornings, but even then, the swell is tiny – 1ft to 2ft – and the wind isn’t clean. Those are not really worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate for a float.

The second week doesn’t really save us. From around Tuesday the 18th onward, the swell stays small, 1ft to 2ft, with the same onshore or cross-onshore wind story. The energy figures do creep up a bit – we see 302 on Tuesday the 18th and 378 on Saturday the 15th – but that’s still only moderate energy and the size is too small to make anything of it. The period is mostly 13 to 16 seconds, so the quality of the swell is actually decent at times, but the size just isn't there.

There’s no standout in this window. Not even a close call. The break is always exposed to the SW swell, and the optimum direction is SW, so that’s lined up right, but the swell just never gets above 3ft. It’s a beach/jetty setup, so on the rare occasion the wind goes light offshore (NE is the call for offshore here), you might get a tiny, clean wave, but it never happens in the forecast. The crowds at Toes Over are “sometimes” an issue, but honestly, with this forecast, I doubt anyone’s showing up.

So, I’ve got good news and bad news. The bad news is: there are no good surf options in this 16-day outlook. You’re looking at a solid two-week dry spell. The good news is: this spot is fairly consistent in general, so a run like this isn’t the norm. Forecasts change, and it won’t stay poor forever. Just don’t hold your breath this week, or next.

Rusty.

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