Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the surf outlook for Toes Over.

Straight up, it’s a tough run. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window, but the first few days are a write-off. The swell is there, but the wind is just not playing ball. For the first few days, the sea breeze is onshore or cross-onshore, making a mess of things. The water temp is sitting at 71°F, which is a whopping 6° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a very unusual warm spell, so you can leave the thick wetsuit at home.

From Saturday the 18th through to Monday the 20th, the swell is small, around 2ft to 2ft from the SW and SSW, with a period around 15-18 seconds. That long period suggests some deep groundswell energy, but with the wind on it, these waves are just poor. The combined energy is moderate, hitting 385 on Monday afternoon, but it’s not doing you any favours.

Tuesday the 21st morning sees the swell bump up to 3ft from the SSW, and the energy reading climbs to 436, but it’s still a cross-onshore breeze. It’s a marginal call, but hardly worth paddling out for. This pattern of onshore junk continues right through the week. We see a spike in period on Thursday the 23rd afternoon with a 26-second swell, but it’s only 1.0ft – a tease of energy from a long way away, but with 12 mph winds, it’s just a messy, blown-out lump.

Now, the first real glimmer of hope shows up on Friday the 24th morning. The swell is still small at 2ft from the SSW, but the period is a very long 24 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to a solid 555, which is good moderate-to-strong energy. The wind is a light S at 6 mph, just a cross-onshore breeze. It’s still marginal, but that’s the best we’ve seen so far.

Saturday the 25th morning is the standout of the whole forecast. The swell is 2ft from the SW, with a period of 21 seconds and the combined energy cranks up to 721 – that’s the strongest energy reading in the whole run. The wind is a light SSW at 6 mph, which is just a light cross-onshore breeze. It’s not glassy, but it’s light enough that the waves will have some shape. The long period makes it a proper groundswell, and here at Toes Over, a beach/jetty setup, that long period might make it break a little straight, but for a small wave, it’s the best chance of a clean, rippable bank. The crowds are "sometimes" likely, so you might have a few out, but it’s the one to target.

The following week from Sunday the 26th through to Thursday the 31st is a mixed bag of marginal surf. The swell stays around 2ft to 3ft, with periods dropping back to 16-19 seconds. The energy is still strong, hitting 653 on the afternoon of the 27th, but the wind is mostly onshore. Wednesday the 29th morning is a total bust with 12 mph cross-shore wind from the SE – that’s kiteboarding weather, not surfing.

Friday the 31st morning sees a slight shift with a 4ft S swell, but it’s onshore. The run into the first couple of days of August fades out, with the period dropping to 10 seconds and the energy falling to 215 on the 2nd. That’s weak, low-quality wind swell.

So, bottom line: don’t get your hopes up for the first week. The main event is Saturday the 25th morning. That’s your best bet for a clean, fun wave. The long-range stuff looks promising with the energy, but the wind is the enemy. It’s a tough forecast, but that one window is worth charging for.

Rusty.

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