Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a pretty quiet run ahead at Toes Over, so let’s not sugarcoat it—most of the next fortnight is looking marginal at best. The swell sticks around small, barely cracking 2 ft to 3 ft for days on end, with a lot of onshore wind and hardly any standouts. The best window shapes up around Monday the 7th of September, but even that’s a one-off. There’s a big gap after the first few days of no real surf, and then again late in the period.

Let’s start with Saturday the 29th of August. The morning sees a 3 ft SSW swell at a long 17-second period, which is a real groundswell—good energy for the size. Winds are light onshore from the SSW at 6 mph, making it clean enough, but the wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” The combined energy sits at 510 (moderate), so there’s some push, but it’s just not coming together. The afternoon drops off fast with poor conditions.

Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st are both weak—2 ft to 3 ft SSW swell, cross-onshore winds, and poor surf. The energy drops to 222–389 (moderate). Tuesday the 1st of September is even worse with a 1 ft swell and 157 (weak) energy. That pattern holds through the first week: small, onshore, and nothing to get excited about. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Now, the standout: Monday the 7th of September. The morning brings a 4 ft southerly swell at 14 seconds, with glassy conditions—wind is virtually calm, WSW at 3 mph. That’s what we’ve been waiting for. The combined energy is 501 (moderate), and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the best on offer, no question. The swell direction is from the south, which is a bit off the optimum SW, but it’s clean, waist-high, and long-period groundswell. For a break like this, that’s a solid session. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, but with the conditions, it’ll be worth a paddle. Afternoon gets cross-shore and a bit messy with a 4 ft S swell and 586 energy, but the morning is the pick.

Then Tuesday the 8th of September sees a sharp jump—8 ft SSW swell at 12 seconds, with combined energy of 1510 (strong). That’s big, way over 8 ft for experts only. Winds are light onshore from the SSW, and the wave comment is “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” It’s powerful but not clean, and too heavy for most. Afternoon gets a messy 5 ft swell with fresh cross-offshore winds from the ESE at 22 mph—that’s more kite-surfing territory than paddle surfing.

From Wednesday the 9th of September onward, it’s a long, flat run. Swell drops to 1 ft–2 ft, periods are long but energy is weak (150–354), and winds are mostly onshore. The 13th of September finishes with a 1 ft, 18-second swell and only 150 (weak) energy. Nothing to chase.

So, bottom line: the only real highlight is the morning of Monday the 7th of September. Glassy, clean, waist-high, long-period groundswell—get out there if you can. The rest is a write-off unless you’re desperate for a small wave fix. Stay patient.

Rusty

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