Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, and I’ve got the lowdown on the surf ahead at Toes Over. It’s a bit of a waiting game for the most part, but there are a couple of windows that look worth chasing. The water’s sitting at a balmy 69°F right now – that’s a solid 5°F warmer than average for this time of year, so the ocean feels more like a bath than the Pacific.

The outlook kicks off this Sunday morning, July 12, with some small, long-period groundswell. We’re looking at 2ft of swell from the SSW at 14 seconds, but the wind is straight onshore from the SW at just 3 mph. The combined energy is weak at 210, and honestly, the shape is going to be marginal. It’s barely worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate for a float.

The pattern for most of the first week is pretty grim. From Sunday afternoon right through the end of the following Saturday, July 18, the conditions are consistently poor. We’re getting small swell – mostly 1ft to 2ft – but the wind is either onshore or cross-onshore, keeping the surface chopped up. The combined swell energy stays low, mostly between 118 and 235, so there’s just no push in the water. This stretch is a write-off for a decent surf.

Things finally start to show a pulse on the morning of Saturday, July 18. The swell pushes up to 2ft from the SSE, period 14 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to a moderate 437. The wind is light and onshore from the SW at 6 mph, but it’s still onshore, so the quality is only marginal. Then on Sunday morning, July 19, we get a better-looking 2ft from the SW at a very long 17 seconds, with the energy still moderate at 393. The wind is light and onshore again though. The long period means the sets will be more powerful and well-shaped, but it’s going to be tricky at the beach break – it might be a bit too straight if you’re not on a good bank.

The second week, from around Monday July 20 onward, the swell picks up in size and energy. Morning sessions on Tuesday July 21 and Wednesday July 22 see 3ft swell, 16 seconds, with moderate to strong combined energy (524 on the Wednesday). The wind is still cross-onshore, but light. These are all flagged as marginal, so the tide needs to be right.

The true highlight in this 16-day window, the one that stands above the rest, arrives on Thursday July 23. The morning brings 4ft of swell from the S at 15 seconds. The combined energy is a solid 685 – moderate but meaningful – and the wind is only a light cross-onshore breeze at 6 mph. This is the biggest, most consistent swell of the whole outlook, and while it’s not glassy, the light wind keeps the surface clean enough. It’s right at the edge of what’s okay for beginners. The afternoon pushes to 4ft, but the energy climbs to 708 and the wind goes onshore. So, the morning of Thursday July 23 is your best bet.

Following that, Friday July 24 keeps the 4ft swell in the morning, but the energy drops a touch to 599, and the wind is onshore. By the afternoon, the wind is up to 16 mph, making it ugly. The last few days of the outlook fade back down to 2ft to 3ft with onshore or cross-onshore winds, so the magic doesn’t last long.

Remember, Toes Over is fairly consistent as a spot, so it tends to fire up when the swell and wind line up correctly, even if it takes a while. Crowds are a possibility here sometimes, especially on a clean day, so keep that in mind for that Thursday morning.

That’s the story from here. Stay patient, and I’ll catch you in the water.

Rusty

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