Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

First up, I’ve got to be straight with you – the outlook for Toes Over is a bit of a downer for the most part. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions, with the first few days offering nothing worth paddling out for. The pattern is set in with a persistent onshore or cross-onshore wind from the S/SW and SW, blowing across the face of the swell. The waves themselves are tiny, mostly sitting at 1ft to 2ft, and while the period is decent (13 to 14 seconds), the combined energy is weak – with values like 94 (weak) and 109 (weak) – just not enough to get anything going. The water is a warm 73°F, which is a massive 7°F warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual.

We hit a bit of a shift on the 7th of August (Friday). The morning shows a bump in the swell period to a very long 19 seconds, and the combined energy climbs to 231 (moderate). The swell is from the SSW, and the wind is a light cross-onshore from the S at 6 mph. The waves are still only 1ft, but that long period groundswell has some potential. The afternoon stays onshore from the SW, though. The 8th of August (Saturday) morning is the first time we see a score of 1, with a 2ft SSW swell, a 17-second period, and combined energy of 231 (moderate). The wind is light and cross-onshore from the SSW. The wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so it’s a maybe, but it’s the best we’ve seen.

After that, it’s back to poor conditions until the 13th of August (Thursday) morning. That’s when we get another 2ft SSW swell, 16-second period, and combined energy of 238 (moderate). The wind is light cross-onshore from the S. Again, it’s marginal. The 14th of August (Friday) morning has a 2ft SSW swell, 18-second period, and combined energy of 348 (moderate) – the highest energy reading in the whole run. The wind is light cross-onshore from the SSE. The 15th of August (Saturday) morning is similar, with a 2ft SW swell, 16-second period, and combined energy of 318 (moderate). The wind is light cross-onshore from the S.

The true standout in this whole 16-day window is the morning of the 14th of August (Friday). That 2ft SSW swell, with an 18-second period and 348 (moderate) combined energy, is the best balance of size and power we get. The light cross-onshore wind from the SSE will keep it clean, but it’s still a small wave. For a break like Toes Over, which is a beach/jetty setup, that long period (18s) might make it a bit tricky – waves could break a bit too straight. But if you’re keen, that’s your window.

Everything else is a write-off. The first week is a total blank. The gap between the 1st and the 7th is a full six days of no surf. Then there’s another gap after the 8th until the 13th. It’s a bleak run. If you’re a kitesurfer, the onshore wind and small swell might look interesting, but for paddle surfing, it’s a no-go.

Stay patient, the forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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