Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut straight to it. We’ve got a 16-day window for Toes Over, a beach/jetty setup that’s exposed to the SW, and honestly, it’s a tough stretch. The whole period is a bit of a grind, with no real standout days to get genuinely excited about. The waves are small, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the surf quality is poor for the vast majority of the time. There’s a long gap of nothing worth paddling out for, so patience is the name of the game.

The water at Toes Over is running much warmer than normal for this time of year, with a temperature anomaly of 4° above average, sitting at 73°F. That’s very unusual.

The first real hint of anything remotely surfable doesn’t show up until Thursday, August 15th, and even then, it’s a stretch. The morning of the 15th shows a small 2ft SSW swell with a period of 16 seconds, and combined energy of 320 (moderate). The wind is a light 6 mph onshore from the SW, which is still onshore but light. It’s marginal. This is the closest we get to a highlight, but it’s still a poor surf forecast.

The best of a bad bunch might be the morning of Saturday, August 16th. The swell is still small at 3ft from the SSW, with a period of 16 seconds and combined energy of 375 (moderate). The wind is a light 6 mph cross-onshore from the SSE. It’s not clean, but it’s the biggest swell of the whole run and the wind is light. It’s still a marginal, questionable tide situation.

For the rest of the period, from the 6th right through to the 21st, it’s a near-constant run of poor surf conditions, with onshore winds or light cross-onshore breezes. The swell never really gets above 3ft, and the periods are mostly long (13-19 seconds), which would be great for a point break, but at a beach/jetty, that long period groundswell tends to break straight and be a bit fat. The energy is moderate, ranging from 105 to 383, but it’s never enough to overcome the poor quality.

Honestly, for a beach/jetty setup with this much onshore wind and such small swell, this looks more like a kiteboarding window than a paddle-surfing one. The strong, consistent onshore wind and small, long-period swell will create bumpy, unsurfable conditions for most of the time.

So, to sum it up: there’s no real standout. The morning of the 15th and 16th of August are the only windows with a pulse, but they’re both marginal and far from what you’d drive for. If you’re desperate, you might get a few small, crumbly waves on the 16th morning, but keep expectations on the floor.

Rusty.

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