Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this one’s a tough pill to swallow. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with hardly anything worth paddling out for. The first bit of surf that even gets a mention is from Saturday the 29th of August, but honestly, it’s a real struggle. The swell is small, around 3ft to 3ft from the SSW with a long period of 17 seconds, which is a groundswell. The energy is moderate (403), but the wind is a cross-onshore mess, making it lumpy. The water is a toasty 74°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only bright spot.

That first Saturday session is a write-off, and the whole week that follows is just as grim. Sunday the 30th, Monday the 31st, Tuesday the 1st of September – all poor. We’re looking at a solid week of nothing but small, weak, onshore slop. The swell drops to 2ft with energy levels falling into the 100-200s (weak). It’s just not happening.

We finally get a bit of a pulse around Thursday the 3rd of September. The morning sees a 3ft SSW swell with a 14-second period and moderate energy (473). The wind is light cross-onshore, so it’s not completely blown out, but it’s still only rated as marginal. The afternoon sees a slight bump to 4ft (583 energy), but the wind swings onshore. Not great.

Friday the 4th of September has a bit more energy in the morning (588) with a 3ft SSW swell and a 17-second period, but the wind is cross-shore, creating a little chop. It’s still marginal. Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th are more of the same – small swells, cross-onshore winds, and marginal conditions.

Now, the one standout – and I mean the *only* one that gets my heart beating a little faster – is the morning of Tuesday the 8th of September. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the S with a 13-second period, and the combined energy jumps up to 753 (moderate to strong). The wind is a light cross-onshore, which will keep it fairly clean. The swell is still under 5ft, so it’s fine for intermediate surfers, but it’s not a big day. This is the best we’ve got. The afternoon sees it push to 5ft, but the wind goes onshore, spoiling it.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. Wednesday the 9th through to the end of the forecast on Sunday the 13th of September is all poor surf. The swell drops right back down to 2ft to 3ft, the wind is mostly onshore, and the energy is weak. It’s a flat, frustrating run to finish on.

So, to be honest, the only real chance you’ve got is the morning of Tuesday the 8th of September at Toes Over. It’s a beach/jetty setup, so that long-period S swell (13 seconds) might break a bit straight, but with light winds it’ll be the cleanest waves we see all fortnight. The water is warm, but the crowds are sometimes a problem there, so get out early. It’s the only game in town.

This is a tough outlook. When the forecast is this poor, you just have to wait for it to change. It won’t stay this way forever.

Rusty.

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