Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days at Toes Over are mostly a write-off. We’re staring down the barrel of a long, flat spell with nothing but onshore wind and weak, gutless waves. There’s a solid ten-day gap from Monday the 13th right through to Wednesday the 22nd where the surf is just plain poor – tiny, messy, and not worth paddling out for. The water is much warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 69°, which is a proper anomaly of 5° above average.

Let’s break it down. From Monday the 13th right through to Sunday the 19th, we’ve got swell heights stuck between 1 ft and 2 ft, with that combined energy reading between 138 and 359 – that’s weak energy, no drive. The wind is onshore or cross-onshore almost the whole time, from the SW or SSE, and that’s killing any chance of a clean face. Even the longer period swells around 17-18 seconds on the 15th and 18th aren’t doing us any favours because the wind’s just destroying them.

Come Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st, the swell nudges up to 3 ft, and we finally see a score of 1 – but it’s still “marginal.” The combined energy climbs to 370 on the Tuesday morning, but the wind is still cross-onshore or onshore, so it’s a frustrating tease. Wednesday the 22nd is more of the same: 2 ft, cross-shore wind, not worth your time.

The first real glimmer comes on Thursday the 23rd. The swell jumps to 4 ft from the S with a period of 14 seconds, and the combined energy hits 496 – that’s moderate energy. The morning session has a 1 out of 10 and “marginal” conditions, but with light onshore wind from the SSW, it’s still a gamble. The size is small enough for beginners, but the wind direction isn’t ideal.

Then on Saturday the 25th, we’ve got the best of the bunch. Morning sees 3 ft from the SSW, period of 13 seconds, and a combined energy of 601 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind is light and onshore from the SW, but it’s the highest score of the whole period at 2 out of 10. It’s not clean, but it’s the only day where the energy is actually there. The swell direction is SW, which matches the optimum for this break, so if you’re desperate, that Saturday morning is your best bet. It’s still marginal, so don’t expect perfection.

The week after that, from Sunday the 26th to Tuesday the 28th, we’re back to small stuff – 2 ft to 2 ft – with light onshore or cross-onshore wind. The energy drops off again. Nothing to get excited about.

Bottom line: if you’ve got to paddle out, aim for Saturday the 25th morning. Otherwise, leave the board in the shed and wait for a better run. Forecasts can change, but this one’s looking grim.

Rusty.

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