Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into the outlook for Toes Over. I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is a bit of a drawn-out flat spell. There’s some very long-period energy in the water but it’s weak, winds are mostly onshore, and the scores are telling me it’s just not worth the paddle. We’re looking at a solid gap of poor conditions from now until the 17th of July, so don’t rush for the wetsuit just yet.

The only real pulse of life shows up on the 18th and 19th of July, and it’s the best we’ve got. Let’s run through it.

Thursday 9th July to Wednesday 17th July – Yep, it’s a quiet stretch. We’ve got small swell, mostly 1 ft to 2 ft, coming from the SSW. The period is long (14 to 19 seconds) which is nice for shaping, but the combined energy is weak (125 to 383). The wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore, and the guidance is full of “poor surf conditions” or “marginal” with scores of 0 or 1. Nothing to see here. The only thing worth noting is that on Thursday 16th and Friday 17th, the swell is still tiny but the period is very long (16 to 19 seconds), which might make for some clean-looking but powerless lines. Not enough to recommend.

Saturday 18th July – This is the standout. We’ve got a bit of a pulse. The morning looks glassy – dead calm wind, 0 mph, from the south, with a clean glassy surface. The swell is still small at 2 ft but from the SW with a very long period of 18 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 484, which is a moderate bump. This is a point break or reef-style setup kind of day, because that long period will make the waves a bit straight at a beach break. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 67°F, so that’s a nice bonus. This is the moment to be out there if you can. The afternoon sees the swell pick up to 3 ft from the SSE, period 18 seconds, and energy jumps to 690, but the wind swings onshore and the tide questions come in, so morning is the call.

Sunday 19th July – A close second. Morning offers 4 ft from the S, period 15 seconds, with a light cross-shore breeze. The energy is strong at 785. The wind is gentle cross-shore, so it’ll be a bit lumpy but still surfable. The afternoon is similar but with onshore wind, so take the morning session. This is a solid option for a Sunday, but it’s not as clean as Saturday morning.

Monday 20th July – Drops back to 3 ft from the S, period 12 seconds, energy 348. Still some cross-shore wind, but it’s a step down. The rest of the run to the 24th is small again, with onshore winds and poor scores.

The Bottom Line: The best on offer is the morning of Saturday 18th July at Toes Over. Glassy, clean, with a long period groundswell and moderate energy. Sunday 19th morning is a solid backup. The rest is a waiting game. This is a long dry spell, but it tends not to stay this way forever – forecasts can change.

Rusty out.

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