Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch is flat and frustrating. We’re looking at a run of small, weak surf that’s barely worth the paddle out. The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t even show up until Friday the 7th, and even then it’s marginal. Before that, the waves are tiny, around 1ft, with light onshore winds messing with what little is there. The energy is weak, sitting around 89 to 110, so it’s mostly just bump and slop.

The first few days are a write-off. Wednesday and Thursday are poor, with only 1ft of swell and light winds that are either straight onshore or cross-onshore. You’ll get some ripples, but no real walls. Friday the 7th is where things start to shift—the swell period jumps to 19 seconds, which is proper groundswell, but the height is still just 1ft. The energy picks up to 233, and the wave comment is “marginal” rather than “poor.” It’s a tease. The light cross-onshore wind will put a few lines in it, but it’s still going to be gutless.

The weekend stays small. Saturday the 8th has 2ft at 17 seconds, and the energy drops back down to 211. Still marginal. Sunday the 9th is similar, 2ft at 15 seconds, with light onshore wind. Monday the 10th is more of the same. The swell is there, but it’s just not doing anything. The period drops back to 13-14 seconds, so it’s not even that clean. It’s a waiting game.

The first real standout window is the afternoon of Friday the 14th. The swell finally pushes up to 2ft from the SSW, with an 18-second period. The energy jumps to 412—that’s the strongest we’ve seen all week. The wind is light onshore, which is a bit of a bummer, but the size and the long-period nature of this groundswell will make it feel punchier than the number suggests. The morning of Saturday the 15th is also worth a look, with 2ft at 16 seconds and 334 energy, but the cross-onshore breeze will knock the top off it. The afternoon is bigger, 3ft, but the wind picks up to 15 km/h onshore, so it’s less clean.

The standout of the whole run is the morning of Sunday the 16th. Swell is 2ft from the SW, period 15 seconds, energy 297, and the wind is light and onshore. It’s not perfect, but it’s the most consistent and the most rideable we’ve seen. The afternoon gets messy with a moderate onshore breeze, so get out early.

After that, the second week fades again. Monday the 17th through Wednesday the 19th are back to 2-2ft, with periods in the 14-16 second range. The energy is moderate but not special. The wind stays light, but the swell just doesn’t have the size or push to make it exciting. Thursday the 20th is the last day in the window, and it’s marginal—2ft at 14 seconds, with a cross-onshore wind. It’s a quiet end to a quiet forecast.

Look, the water temp is about average for the time of year, no real anomaly, so it’s not a shock to the system. The crowd situation at Toes Over is “sometimes,” so you might get a few heads out, but with this lack of size, it won’t be crowded. The break is fairly consistent, but that doesn’t mean it’s good right now. It’s just there.

For the best of a bad bunch, I’d say the Friday the 14th afternoon and the Sunday the 16th morning are your only real windows. The swell direction is right, SSW/SW, and the bigger energy spikes on the 14th make it the pick. But don’t get too excited—this is a long-range call, and with this little swell, it could easily fade. Keep the expectations low and the patience high.

Rusty, out.

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