Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks at Toes Over are looking pretty flat and uninspiring. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak swell and a fair bit of cross-onshore wind messing things up. The first real chance of anything surfable doesn’t show up until the 16th, and even then it’s marginal. Before that, from the 9th through the 15th, you’re looking at mostly poor conditions with wave heights hovering around 1ft to 3ft. The swell is coming from the southwest, but the wind is often cross or cross-on, which chops things up. There’s a couple of clean windows, but the energy is weak—combined swell energy values are in the low 100s to mid-300s (239, 224, 339, 348, 291, 219, 173, 163, 120, 111, 173, 181, 128, 188). The period is long—16 to 19 seconds—which means it’s a groundswell, but there just isn’t any size behind it. Sunday the 13th sees the period drop to 7 seconds, which is just messy, short-period wind junk.

The water temp is sitting right around average for this time of year, so nothing out of the ordinary there. The break itself is a beach/jetty setup, exposed to the SW, and it’s fairly consistent, but with waves this small, it’s not going to be doing much. Crowds are sometimes a factor, but honestly, with this lack of swell, I doubt anyone’s paddling out. This is more of a “check the tide and hope” kind of situation.

Now, as we move into the second week, things start to look a *little* more promising. On the 16th morning, we get 2ft from the SSW with a 17-second period, and the energy climbs to 242. Still marginal, but it’s a step up. The 17th morning is similar, with 2ft and a 16-second period. The real highlight, if you can call it that, is the 21st. Monday morning the 21st sees the swell push up to 3ft from the SW with a 17-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 384—that’s the strongest reading in the whole outlook. The wind is light cross-shore, so it should be cleaner than most days. That’s your best bet, but even then, it’s only 3ft, which is tiny. It’s a long-period groundswell, so it might have a bit more push, but at a beach/jetty break like this, that long period can make it break a little too straight. Not ideal.

The 22nd and 23rd keep the same small SW swell rolling, around 2ft to 3ft, with light winds. The 23rd afternoon shows a cross-off breeze with some rain showers, which could clean it up, but the energy is dropping back to 200. Overall, the second week is less of a write-off than the first, but it’s still small. Don’t get your hopes up too high. The 21st morning is the standout, but it’s a relative thing. If you’re desperate, that’s the session to paddle out for. Otherwise, I’d be looking for something else to do this fortnight.

Alright, that’s the look. Stay patient, and keep an eye on that 21st. This is Rusty, signing off.

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