Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, friends, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks aren't going to have any fireworks. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, messy, onshore wind swell. It's the kind of lineup where you'll be fighting the bump and the closeouts for a waist-high sliver. It’s not a total loss, but you’ll need to pick your spots and keep your expectations low.

The only real window of opportunity, and I’m using that term loosely, is early next week. The forecast models are hinting at a slight bump in energy and a cleaner window around the 29th and 30th of August. That’s a week and a half out, so don’t book time off work just yet. It's promising, but it’s a long-range call and things can change.

Right, so for the near term, we’re looking at a lot of nothing. From now until about the 22nd, the surf at Toes Over (North Shore) is going to be gutless. Swell heights are stuck below 2ft, with periods mostly in the 13-17 second range. That long period means there’s some energy, but there’s just not enough of it. The combined energy readings for the early period are weak, sitting around 219 to 247. It’s all coming from the SSW, which is fine, but the wind is a constant problem. The mornings are light, but the afternoons see a solid onshore breeze from the SW, turning it into a bumpy, blown-out mess. This is not a paddle-out situation, this is a "watch the horizon and stay on the beach" situation.

We get a bit of a lull mid-week, with wave heights dipping to 1ft. Energy drops into the double digits, down to 98 at one point. Just drifting, flat, and uninviting. The period does get long, up to 19 seconds, but with barely a ripple of swell, it doesn't matter.

Now, the better days. As we head into the 24th and 25th, we see a slight increase in energy to around 231 and 236, but the swell height stays small, still mostly 1ft to 2ft. The wind is a bit better, with a 3 mph cross-on in the morning on the 25th, which will make it line up a little cleaner, but it's still marginal. Marginal is the key word here.

The standout period, and even then it's a relative term, is the 29th and 30th. The water is pumping a bit more energy, with readings in the 304 to 332 range, and the swell height climbs to a still-small 3ft. The direction shifts slightly to the SSW, and the period stays in that nice 15-16 second zone. The morning of the 30th looks like the pick of the bunch. Light winds, clean lines, and the most push we're going to see in this whole window. It’s still only just over knee-to-waist high, but it'll be the most rideable it gets. If you can get out there for the dawn patrol on the 30th, that’s your best bet. Remember, this is a week and a half away, so it’s a "promising" call, not a guarantee. A long-period swell like that can also tend to close out a beach break, so maybe look for a sandbar that's holding.

After that, the 31st and 1st just fade back into the same old story: 2ft dropping back to 2ft, onshore wind returning in the afternoons. There’s nothing else worth getting excited about.

So, in short, it's a slow couple of weeks. The water is unseasonably warm though. When you do paddle out around the 29th, you're looking at a water temp of 71°, which is nearly 5° above average. That's pretty wild for this time of year.

Toes Over is breaking, and the rules of the game are simple: pick the morning sessions, and pick those days right at the end of the month. It's not going to be spectacular, but there will be a few fun waves to be had if you're patient.

Rusty out.

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