Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty ordinary for Toes Over. This is a beach/jetty setup exposed to the SW, and we’ve got a long period of small, weak swell coming through. The water is a balmy 73°, which is a whopping 7° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual, you could almost skip the wetsuit on a sunny morning.

The first real chance to paddle out doesn’t come until Wednesday morning, September 9th. We’ve got a tiny 1 ft SW groundswell rolling in with a very long period of 19 seconds. The combined energy is only 236 (moderate), and the wind is a light 6 mph offshore from the WSW, so it’ll be glassy. But honestly, it’s marginal. The tide is going to be a factor, and the wave quality is just not there. It’s a session for the longboard just to get wet.

That afternoon, the wind picks up to 12 mph onshore, making it a no-go. Thursday the 10th sees a slightly bigger 2 ft to 3 ft SW swell, still with a long period (16-17 seconds). The combined energy bumps up to 349 (moderate) on Thursday morning, but the wind is a light cross-shore from the SSE. It’s still marginal, and the report flags questionable tide conditions. It’s not great, but it’s the closest thing to a window this week.

Friday through Sunday is a write-off. The swell drops back to 1 ft to 2 ft, the wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the energy is weak. The best of the bunch is Saturday morning with a 2 ft SW swell and 14s period, but the wind is a gentle cross-shore from the SE. Still, poor surf conditions.

We hit a real dry spell from Monday the 14th through to Wednesday the 16th. Swell drops to 1.0 ft, and the energy dips to 114 (weak). The wind is light, but it’s all cross-onshore. It’s a flat spell.

Things try to pick up a little on Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th. The swell sticks around 1 ft to 2 ft, with a period of 15-19 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (242-300). The winds are light offshore from the WSW on the 18th, which is a good sign, but the surf is still marginal. The shape just isn’t there.

The best-looking window in the whole 16-day run is actually the furthest out. On Monday, September 21st, we see a 3 ft SW swell with a 17-second period and a combined energy of 384 (moderate). The wind is a light offshore from the SSW. That’s the cleanest, most powerful looking swell of the lot. It’s a promising pick, but it’s a long way off, so keep an eye on it.

Tuesday the 22nd is similar, with a 2 ft to 3 ft SW swell, and Wednesday the 23rd fades back to 2 ft. The last few days of the forecast are all small, with poor surf conditions and light onshore or cross-onshore winds.

Honestly, the standout here is that Monday, September 21st morning session. It’s the only one with a decent swell size, a clean offshore wind, and the highest wave energy we see. It’s not a world-beater, but it’s the best bet for a clean, mellow wave. The long period (17 seconds) means it’ll have some push, but at a beach break, it might be a bit straight. Still, for a beach/jetty, you take what you can get.

Stay patient, mates. The forecast can always change.
Rusty.

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