Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you—this outlook is a tough one. We’re looking at a full 16-day window, but honestly, there’s barely a moment worth paddling out. The swell’s there in the water, but it’s not showing up right, and when it does, the conditions are just off.

Right from the start, it’s a dud. The first few days—Wednesday the 12th through Sunday the 16th—are all marked by poor surf quality. We’ve got some waist-high swell around 2 ft to 3 ft coming out of the SW and SSW, with periods that are long—16 to 19 seconds. That’s groundswell, which usually means shape and energy, but here it’s getting chopped up by onshore winds. The combined swell energy is moderate, sitting between 151 and 385, so there’s push, but it’s not translating into rideable waves. Wind’s mostly onshore or light cross-onshore, and that’s leaving the surface messy.

Come Friday morning the 14th, there’s a brief flicker. The morning shows clear skies, a light breeze, and the swell hits 1 ft from the SSW with a period of 19 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 243, but the forecast calls it marginal at best. Still, if you’re desperate and the tide lines up, there might be a stray clean one at Toes Over. That’s a beach/jetty setup, exposed to SW swell, and it’s a fairly consistent break, so it can hold a wave when conditions cooperate. The water temp is sitting at 72°F—that’s much warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick suit.

The rest of the first week and into the second is a slog. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th offer the same story: 3 ft swell, long periods, but cross-onshore winds and marginal conditions. The crowd factor is “sometimes” at Toes Over, so on a better day you might dodge the pack, but with this quality, even the die-hards will be sitting it out.

From the 18th through the 23rd, the energy drops. Swell heights slip to 1.0 ft to 2 ft, periods stay long but the combined energy dips into the low hundreds or just over a hundred. That’s weak. The wind is still mostly onshore or cross-onshore. Nothing here gets a score above 1.

The standout—if you can call it that—is Thursday the 27th. The morning shows 2 ft from the SW with a 14-second period and the combined energy hits 391, moderate and approaching strong. But the afternoon brings in moderate cross-onshore winds at 12 mph and the surface gets choppy. The notes say “poor surf conditions.” It’s not the day you’d tell a friend to drive for.

Overall, this stretch is a wash. Toes Over is a fairly consistent break, so this kind of run isn’t the norm—it’ll turn around eventually. But right now, the swell direction is coming from SSW and SW, and the optimum for this spot is SW, so at least the angle is there. The problem is the wind and the lack of clean windows. If the wind shifts offshore—NE is the magic direction here—it could get good in a heartbeat. Until then, save the wax.

Rusty.

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