Toes Over Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

Look, I’m gonna be straight with you. The next couple of weeks at Toes Over are looking pretty bleak for actually getting a decent wave. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak surf and mostly onshore conditions. It’s not gonna be a total write-off, but you’ll need to be patient and pick your moments.

The water is running about 72°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit.

The first real chance of anything worth paddling out for is the morning of Monday the 25th. The swell kicks up a bit to around 4ft from the SSE with a 16-second period. The energy jumps to a moderate 808, which is the strongest we see for a while. Winds are light and offshore from the SW, so the surf will be clean. It’s still only marginal, but this is the best we’ve got in the first week. The swell direction is SSW, which is not exactly the SW optimum for this spot, so it might be a bit wobbly, but it’s the standout. The morning of Tuesday the 26th is similar, with 4ft from the S and a 14-second period, but the wind is cross-shore, which will put a bit of chop on it.

Then we hit a bigger pulse on Thursday the 27th. The morning sees 5ft of SSW swell with a 14-second period and strong energy at 745. Winds are light and offshore, so this could be the pick of the whole run. It’s a bigger, more powerful swell, so only the more experienced among you should be out there. After that, it seems to fade back down, with the energy dropping and the wind turning more onshore in the afternoons.

Now, the early part of the forecast is a real drag. From the 15th through to the 24th, we’re looking at ankle to knee-high slop, mostly around 1ft to 3ft. The wave energy is weak, mostly in the low hundreds, and the winds are mostly on or cross-onshore, making it pretty messy. There are a few mornings with a light offshore but the swell is just too small to do anything with. This break is fairly consistent, so when it’s this flat for this long, it’s a bit of a drag, but it won’t stay like this forever.

On the Saturday the 29th, the swell drops right back to 2ft, so the window is closed again. The 30th is similar, with a cross-shore wind and poor shape.

So, bottom line: keep your expectations low for the next week and a half. The one true standout is the morning of Thursday the 27th. The 5ft SSW swell with light offshore winds will be the cleanest and most powerful session of the whole period. The 25th and 26th are worth a look as smaller, less consistent alternatives, but they’re not in the same league. Get out there on the 27th if you can.

Rusty, signing off.

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