Marlin Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – the outlook for Marlin over the next 16 days is a tough one. We’re looking at a real stingy stretch, with no solid recommendations to get excited about. The whole period is essentially a write-off for a proper surf, though there's a bit of pulse in the energy late in the second week that might get your hopes up, but the conditions just don't line up.

The water is sitting at 79° – that's about average for the time of year, so nothing out of the ordinary there.

Right from the start on Thursday, August 6th, we’ve got a 4ft swell from the ESE, but it’s coming in with a short 8-second period and a cross-on wind from the ENE at 6 mph. The combined energy is weak at 214, and the report calls it “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” It’s a beginner-friendly height, but the wind is making it messy. That pretty much sets the tone for the next week and a half. Every single day from the 6th through the 19th of August is marked as "poor surf conditions" with zero scores. You’ll see a mix of ESE and E swells, mostly between 3ft and 5ft, but the wind is almost always cross-on or onshore, chopping it up. The period is short, under 8 seconds, so there’s no power or shape to the waves. It’s going to be a flat, bumpy, and frustrating wait.

If you’re desperate, there’s a tiny window on the morning of Wednesday, August 12th, where a 2ft S swell shows up with a 14-second period, giving a moderate jump in energy to 326. But the wind is a cross-on from the SE at 12 mph, so it’s still choppy. This is a groundswell, but the size is tiny and the wind is junk.

The action picks up a bit in the second week. On Saturday, August 15th, the combined energy jumps to 582 in the morning and hits 946 in the afternoon – that’s strong wave energy. The swell is 3ft to 4ft from the ESE with a 13-second period. But again, the wind is a cross-on from the ENE at 9 mph, and the report still says poor conditions. It’s a real shame, because that energy is there, but you’ll be fighting the wind.

Then on Sunday, August 16th, the energy is still healthy at 586 and 430, with a 4ft ESE swell and a 12-second period. But the morning is cross-on from the ENE, and the afternoon is cross-on from the E. Still no clean conditions.

The best looking swell on paper is on Friday, August 14th, with a 3ft to 3ft S swell and a 15-second period, giving a combined energy of 477 and 495. That’s a proper long-period groundswell. But the wind is onshore from the SE and ESE, and it’s still a poor forecast. If that wind had been offshore, it would have been a standout, but it’s not.

The wind finally gets a bit lighter on the 19th and 20th, but the swell backs off to 2ft to 3ft. The energy drops away, and the onshore wind still makes it junk.

The bottom line: there are no good options here. Not a single day where the wind, swell, and tide align. It’s a long, flat, and choppy run. With the break being exposed and the wind consistently cross-on or onshore, the setup is honestly more interesting for a kite session than a paddle. Hang in there, the forecasts can change, but for now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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