Marlin Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty, and I've got the surf outlook for Marlin. Let's be straight with you – it's a bit of a tough stretch ahead. The forecast period runs from now through the 16-day window, but there's a long dry spell at the start. The first few days are all marked "poor surf conditions" with scores of zero, so we're looking at a real gap before anything even gets close to worth a paddle. From Thursday the 20th of August all the way through to Wednesday the 26th of August, it's pretty much a write-off – small, weak, onshore junk.

The water temperature at Marlin is sitting at 26°C with a mild anomaly of 0.7°C, which is about average for the time of year, so at least the water's nice even if the waves aren't.

Now, the first hint of something halfway decent doesn't turn up until late Wednesday the 26th of August. The afternoon sees a long-period south swell creeping in at 3 ft with a 16-second period, and the combined energy reading is 506 – that's moderate energy, but it's still called "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," so keep your expectations low. The wind is onshore from the ESE at 15 km/h, which is not great, but that long period means there's some grunt in the water.

Thursday the 27th of August morning has a south swell at 3 ft and a 18-second period – that's a very long period groundswell, which is prone to breaking straight on beach breaks. Combined energy jumps to 703 (moderate), but the wind is cross-onshore from the E at 15 km/h, and it's still "poor surf conditions." The afternoon gets a bit better with the same swell at 4 ft, 16-second period, 720 energy, and a "marginal" call – but again, onshore wind.

Friday the 28th of August sees the biggest swell of the near-term window – a south swell at 4 ft, 14-second period, with combined energy hitting 817 (moderate-strong). The morning is cross-onshore from the E at 20 km/h, so it's choppy and described as "poor." The afternoon is onshore, also poor. This one's a bit of a tease – there's energy, but the wind is just not playing ball.

If I had to pick a standout, it's a tough call, but I'd say the best of a bad bunch is the Thursday the 27th of August afternoon or Friday the 28th of August morning. The south swell is up to 4 ft, and the direction (S) is exactly what Marlin wants – it's exposed to south swells, so that's a good match. The problem is the wind. For a beach or beach-and-reef setup like Marlin, with onshore or cross-onshore winds at 15-20 km/h, it's going to be choppy and messy. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing given the wind and swell combo.

The long-period south swells (16-18 seconds) are real groundswell, which can produce good shape at reef or point breaks, but Marlin is exposed, so it might break too straight and be a bit walled. The crowds at Marlin are "sometimes," so you might have company, but it's not a total zoo.

Bottom line: there's a glimmer of decent swell energy in the last week of August, with the south swell peaking around 3-4 ft and periods over 14 seconds, but the wind is consistently onshore or cross-onshore, ruining the quality. For any real hope, you'd be waiting for a clean window that just isn't showing up. The second week into September stays small, with east-southeast windswell under 5 ft and poor conditions across the board. It's a frustrating outlook, but it happens – forecasts can change, so don't give up hope entirely.

Rusty.

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