Marlin Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one to swallow. There’s a whole lot of “poor surf conditions” stamped across the next 16 days at Marlin, and not a single session gets a recommendation. The wind is the main culprit, blowing from the east or northeast nearly the whole time, putting a chop on the swell that just won’t clean up. The spot is exposed to the south, but the swell that does show up is getting mangled by onshore and cross-onshore breezes.

For the first week, we’re looking at a real struggle. Wednesday the 26th kicks off with a tiny 2ft south swell, period a healthy 14 seconds, but the wind is on it and the energy is weak (331). The water is a warm 79°, which is about 1° above the norm, so nothing weird there. The swell bumps up a bit into Thursday the 27th – 3ft in the morning and 4ft in the afternoon, with a solid 16-17 second period. That’s a proper groundswell, and the energy climbs to 719 and 998 respectively, which is moderate. But the wind is cross-on, and the report calls it “marginal” at best. The whole first week is the same story: swell size hangs around 2ft to 5ft, but the wind is never favorable. By Saturday the 29th, the swell drops to 3ft and the energy falls to 355. It’s a real bummer.

Heading into the second week, the pattern doesn’t change. From Monday the 31st of August through to the end of the forecast, we’re stuck with easterly wind and poor surf. The swell does get a bit of height – hitting 5ft on Tuesday the 1st of September – but that’s with a short period of 8-9 seconds and a moderate cross-onshore breeze making it choppy. The energy stays in the 200-300 range, which is still weak. The highlight, if you can call it that, is Thursday the 10th of September. There’s a 3ft swell from the ESE with a period of 13 seconds, which is decent, and the energy is 489. But the wind is cross-on from the ENE at 15 mph, and the report still says “poor surf conditions.” The water temps are a bit cooler but nothing unusual.

Overall, there’s just no standout window here. If you’re desperate, keep an eye on the 27th of August, when the swell had the most potential, but the wind was always going to be the problem. Don’t bother with the beach; it’s more of a kite surfing setup than a paddling one right now. We’ll see if the forecasts change, but for now, it’s a long blank run.

Rusty.

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