Marlin Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks, yeah? It’s a bit of a funny one, to be honest. The ocean’s got some size kicking around, but it’s not doing us any favours at Marlin (Big Island). The energy’s there, but the wind and the direction are just making a mess of things. We’re looking at a patchy run ahead.

The first part of the week is basically a write-off. We’ve got some weak, short-period swell in the water, but it’s coming from the east and we’ve got a cross-onshore breeze on it. It’s just lumpy and unorganised. The combined energy is only around 114 to 247, which is weak to moderate, and it’s just not translating into anything rideable. The swell is under 3ft, so it’s not even like there’s a sneaky wave to be found. It’s flat and messy.

We might see a bit of a pulse from the south around the 13th and 14th. The swell jumps up a touch, and the period gets longer, up to 13 seconds, which is a proper groundswell. The combined energy is climbing into the 500s and 600s, which is moderate. But the wind is still on it, coming from the east-southeast, making things choppy. The wave comment calls it marginal, and that’s about right. It’s a tease, a bit of size but no shape to it. The water temp is 79°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick suit at least.

There’s a bit of a lull again late in the second week, a few days there where it’s back to that small, onshore slop. The energy drops back down to the 250s and 260s, so it’s weak. It’s not looking good.

Then, looking way out to the 21st of August, there’s a whisper of something better. The swell is forecast to push up to 7ft, and the combined energy is hitting 904, which is strong. Still, the period is only 9 seconds, so it’s not a long-range groundswell, and the wind is forecast to be cross-onshore from the east. That’s a lot of power but it’s going to be bumpy. It’s a promise, but a long way off, so I wouldn’t bank on it being perfect. After that, it eases back off a bit into the 500s and 400s, with the wind staying generally onshore.

So, the honest truth is, there’s nothing here that’s a standout. The best bet is probably the 21st if that swell fills in, but even then, the wind is a problem. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game. The setup here at Marlin is a beach break, and with this persistent onshore flow and short-period swell, it’s going to be messy. If you’re into kitesurfing, this might be your window, because there’s plenty of wind and some size, but for paddle surfing, you’re going to be frustrated. It’s a classic case of a lot of ocean, but not a lot of surf.

Rusty.

Read more