Marlin Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this forecast for Marlin is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, frustrating stretch ahead. For the next couple of weeks, the conditions are just a write-off, and there’s nothing to get excited about for a surfer. The whole 16-day window is basically a dud with no real surf on offer.

Things kick off on Wednesday, the 22nd of July, with a messy 6ft swell from the ESE, but it’s onshore wind and rain showers making a mess of it. The combined energy is moderate at 471, but the wave comment says it all – poor surf conditions. This pattern just keeps going. Thursday the 23rd through the weekend sees similar small, onshore, junky swell. The water temperature is a warm 79°, and that’s only 0.5° above normal, so it’s about average for this time of year.

We’ve got a solid gap here with no recommendations. Day after day it’s the same story: onshore winds, poor surf quality, and a ‘0’ score. The swell stays small, under 3ft for a few days, and the period is short, under 8 seconds, with no energy to speak of. The combined energy drops into the double digits – weak stuff.

Then, as we head into the first week of August, the swell actually starts to build. By Sunday the 2nd of August, we’re looking at 5ft, and by Monday the 3rd, 5ft, with combined energy climbing into the 200s and 300s – moderate wave energy. But the wind is still onshore or cross-onshore, and the comment is still “poor surf conditions.” It’s infuriating.

The real kicker comes on the morning of Thursday, the 6th of August. The swell jumps to 6ft from the ESE, but the period stretches to 12 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy hits 1026, which is strong to very strong wave energy. The report says “marginal surf forecast,” and it’s the only time the score is anything but a zero. But even then, it’s onshore wind at 12 mph and rain showers. The swell is over 5ft, so it’s getting too big for beginners, and that long period will make it break weirdly straight at this beach. For a spot like Marlin, which is exposed to the south, this ESE swell is not the optimum direction, and the wind is just ruining it. It’s a tease, not a session.

Honestly, for the whole 16 days, there’s not a single standout. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the persistent onshore winds and building swell. The area is having a blank run, and it’s a bit more normal for this spot to have these kind of extended quiet periods we just have to sit through. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d leave the board in the car.

Rusty.

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