Marlin Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wettie, let’s have a real look at what’s on the cards. It’s a bit of a flat, messy start, and to be honest, it’s going to be a frustrating stretch for a while. The forecast window runs about 16 days out, but I’m telling you now, the first week and change is going to be a write-off.

The main issue is that everything coming through is onshore, choppy, and just not put together. We’ve got no clean lines, and the swell is weak and short-period for the most part; it’s just not going to offer anything rideable.

Let’s focus on Marlin, the only spot we have on the radar. It’s an exposed, consistent break, but it’s just getting hammered by cross-onshore winds and that bumpy, messy surface. For the first week or so, from midday Friday the 11th all the way through to the end of the following week, it’s all scoring a zero. We’re seeing a moderate cross-onshore breeze with waves mostly in the 4ft to 5ft range. The swell energy is moderate, but it’s not doing anything for us. The period is short, around 7-8 seconds; that’s just windswell junk. It’s choppy and lacks any push. You'd be wasting your time.

There is a day on Thursday the 17th where the period climbs to 11 seconds and the energy bumps to 421, but we’re still dealing with onshore and cross-onshore winds. It’s a tease. It looks a little better, but the quality is still poor.

Then, after that, things drop off hard. From the 21st, we see the swell really shrinking. By the 22nd and 23rd, the energy is down to weak levels (values like 82, 18, 14), which is a sure sign it’s all but dead. A couple of those days have a cross-shore wind that might make it semi-glassy, but there’s just no swell to push it. It’s not looking good.

Finally, on the 24th of September, there’s a slight uptick. We see the swell size bump back to 5ft, but the period remains a short 7 seconds, and the wind gets stronger, up to 19 mph from the east, making it fresh and lumpy. The energy is still in the moderate range (227). This still isn't good. It’s not a clean groomed swell; it’s just bumpy conditions with a bit more size.

Honestly, the entire outlook is a blank run. There are no standouts. The whole thing looks better suited for a kite or a foil than a paddle board. Don’t get your hopes up for the next two weeks. The water temp here is about normal for the time of year, a touch warm at 79°, but you won't be feeling it while you're sitting on the beach watching nothing. The forecasts can change, of course, but as it stands, this is a long, flat, and bumpy stretch.

Rusty

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