Marlin Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about Marlin. The name is the spot, plain and simple. I’m looking at the next 16 days, and honestly, it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is a long, drawn-out run of poor surf conditions. There’s truly no good surf on offer here. The first proper chance to even think about paddling out doesn’t appear until the very end of the window, and even then, it’s a long shot.

We start with a gap of absolutely nothing. From now through the middle of the week, it’s all cross-onshore wind, choppy, messy, and not worth your time. The swell is coming from the east and southeast, but it’s short-period junk, mostly 5 to 8 seconds, with a combined swell energy that’s weak for the most part. The wave energy values are almost all in the two-digit range at first, barely climbing into the low hundreds. That 442 on Sunday morning might sound like something, but the wind is onshore and the period is still short – it’s just a washing machine. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing to write home about.

The entire first week is a write-off. The wind is mostly from the ESE or SE, onshore or cross-on, and the swell is weak and wind-affected. The wave comment is “poor surf conditions” for nearly every single window. The only small blip is Monday the 3rd morning, which is “marginal,” but it’s still onshore. Honestly, this stretch is more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

Even into the second week, it’s the same story. The wind stays onshore or cross-on, the swell is tiny, and the consistency is awful. The energy value drops back down to the double digits for most of the days. It’s a dry spell.

Then, finally, late in the forecast, we get a change. On Thursday, the 13th of August, the swell direction swings to the south, and the period jumps to 10 and 11 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy also jumps up. This is a real swell, but it arrives with a cross-onshore wind from the SSE and SE. That wind is going to put a chop on it. The swell height is around 3 ft to 4 ft, so it’s not big, but it’s a real swell. The trouble is, the wind is still not clean.

The very last point on the forecast, Saturday the 15th of August morning, is the only hint of something special. We have a swell from the SSE with a period of 13 seconds, which is a very long period groundswell. The combined energy is solid. The swell height is only 2 ft, but with that period, it’s going to hold up and wrap in. The wind is from the ESE at 6 mph, coming onshore. That’s still not ideal, but it’s a light breeze. If you’re at Marlin, which is an exposed beach setup, that long period can make things a bit straight and tricky, but any clean wave is a good wave. This is the only day that looks even remotely worth a look, but it’s a long way out and the wind is still on the wrong side.

So, to be blunt: there’s nothing to get excited about for the next two weeks. The only whisper of hope is that Saturday morning the 15th, but it’s a long-range call and the wind is a gamble. The forecast says it’s poor, and I believe it. This is one of those periods where the surf just doesn’t show up. Don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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