Mariscal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—this is a tough run for Mariscal. The forecast over the next 16 days is pretty flat and underwhelming. We’ve got a long stretch of tiny, weak swell with messy winds, and there’s not a single standout session worth getting excited about. The first recommendation doesn’t pop up until Friday morning, July 17th, but even then, it’s a real struggle.

Let’s start with Friday morning, July 17th. We’ve got a small 2ft swell from the ENE with a short period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is weak (71), and the wind is a light cross-offshore from the NNW, which will keep it clean. But honestly, the waves are just ordinary—small, weak, and inconsistent. The break is fairly exposed, but the swell direction is coming from ENE, while the optimum is SE, so it’s not lining up well.

Saturday morning, July 18th, is a carbon copy: 3ft from the ENE, 8-second period, clean with a light NNW cross-offshore. Energy is still low (78). It’s surfable, but you’re scratching for anything decent. Sunday morning, July 19th, again 3ft ENE, 8 seconds, cross-off wind, energy at 91. Same story—ordinary.

Then Monday morning, July 20th, 2ft ENE, 8 seconds, cross-off from the NW, energy 71. Nothing changes. The afternoon of the 20th sees a bigger bump to 5ft from the ENE, but the period is still short (8 seconds), and the wind goes cross-shore from the NNE. The energy jumps to 393 (moderate), but it’s described as poor surf conditions, so don’t get your hopes up. That bigger swell might look interesting, but the short period and cross-shore wind will make it a lumpy mess.

Tuesday morning, July 21st, is a tease. We get 2ft from the ENE, 8 seconds, but with glassy conditions—a light WNW breeze, dead calm. Energy is weak (67). It’s clean, but the swell is tiny and inconsistent. The water temperature is 61°, which is 5° colder than normal—much colder than average for this time of year, so you’ll want a thick wetsuit.

After that, it’s a long dry spell. From Tuesday afternoon, July 21st, all the way through to Monday morning, July 27th, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. The swell drops to 1ft–2ft, with poor winds, rain showers, and onshore slop. The combined energy is often below 50—just flat.

Monday afternoon, July 27th, brings a spike to 5ft from the NE with a 7-second period, and energy of 250 (moderate). The wind is cross-offshore from the N, so it’ll be clean, but the period is short and the conditions are still described as poor. It’s a beach break setup, so that short-period swell is going to be weak and fat.

The rest of the run into late July is more of the same—tiny, weak, and inconsistent. There’s one glimmer on Wednesday morning, July 29th, with glassy conditions and 1ft from the ENE, but it’s only 7 seconds and energy is 26. Not worth a mention.

So, the best on offer? Honestly, there isn’t a true standout. If I had to pick, Tuesday morning, July 21st, with the glassy conditions, is your best bet for a clean but tiny session. Friday morning, July 17th, through Sunday morning, July 19th, offer the most consistent small waves with clean winds, but it’s all just ordinary. There’s no big swell, no long-period groundswell, and no real quality. This is a blank run, and for an area like Mariscal, that’s not unusual. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more