Happys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks. I’ll be honest with you right up front: it’s a tough stretch. There’s a big, ugly gap at the start with nothing worth paddling out for, and even when things improve, it’s not going to be easy to find a clean wave.

The first solid recommendation doesn't come until Friday the 18th, and even that is a marginal call. For the first three days – Tuesday the 15th through Thursday the 17th – we’ve got nothing but poor surf conditions with strong, onshore or cross-onshore winds and lumpy, choppy seas. The swell is there at times, like Wednesday afternoon with a 8ft SE swell and combined energy of 533 (strong), but it’s completely blown out. You wouldn't want to be out there.

Friday morning the 18th is our first glimmer of hope at Happys. It’s still a tough call, only scoring a 1 out of 10, with combined energy at 445 (moderate to strong). Swell is 5ft from the SE at 8 seconds. The wind goes cross-shore with a gentle breeze, so it’s not going to be clean, but the conditions are described as "marginal" rather than poor. Honestly, it’s a last resort kind of day. The water temperature is about average for this time of year.

From there, the surf drops right off again. Saturday the 19th through Monday the 21st sees tiny, weak swell and mostly onshore winds. The combined energy falls to as low as 19 (weak). It’s a write-off.

Things start to build again from Tuesday the 22nd. The swell comes up to 4ft to 6ft from the SE through the end of that week, but the wind is consistently cross-onshore or onshore. The combined energy climbs into the moderate range (108 to 342), but the quality is still "poor." It’s not until the very end of the forecast period that we see something slightly better.

On Tuesday morning the 29th of September, we finally get a standout moment. The wind goes light and cross-offshore from the WNW, and combined with a 5ft swell from the E at 8 seconds (energy of 246 – moderate), the conditions are described as "clean." That’s the best window in the whole 16 days. For a point break like Happys, that offshore wind is going to groom the waves nicely. Keep in mind, though, that the swell period is short at 8 seconds, so the waves won’t have that deep, groundswell power. Still, it’s your best shot.

After that, Wednesday the 30th returns to moderate cross-shore winds and poor surf.

So, the long story short: you’ve got a long wait until Friday the 18th for anything remotely surfable, a gap of poor or tiny surf, and then a single, promising morning on Tuesday the 29th with clean, offshore conditions. The rest is a battle against the wind. The crowd at Happys can be "often" an issue, but with conditions this average, I wouldn’t stress about that.

Keep an eye on the forecasts – it tends not to stay this grim forever.

Rusty.

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