Happys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: if you’re chasing waves at Happys over the next couple of weeks, you’re going to be doing a lot of looking at the ocean and not much riding. The forecast is a long, flat, and bumpy road, with only one small window that might get you wet.

The first week and a half is pretty much a write-off. We’re looking at tiny, weak swells – mostly under 3 feet – and the wind is almost always blowing cross-on or cross-shore, chopping up whatever slop manages to roll in. The energy is weak, with readings mostly in the 40s to 180s, so there’s just nothing to work with. You’ll have mornings with light breezes, but the swell is too small and messy to do anything with. It’s frustrating, but it is what it is.

Then, around Thursday the 17th, things start to get a bit more interesting – but not necessarily better. We see a solid pulse of energy come through. That morning, the swell jumps to around 6 feet from the SE with a 10-second period, and the energy readings hit 645. It’s a real push of water, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore, making it lumpy and hard to ride. That afternoon it gets bigger, over 7 feet, but the period drops to 7 seconds and the wind stays fresh and cross-shore. Not good.

Friday the 18th keeps the size up – around 6 to 7 feet – and in the afternoon, the period stretches way out to 13 seconds, and the energy goes through the roof at 1377. That’s a serious groundswell, but the wind is light and onshore, and the call is only "marginal." For a point break like Happys, a 13-second swell is getting into the range where I’d say it’s better suited to a reef or a river mouth – it can break a bit too straight for a point. And with that onshore breeze, it’s going to be messy.

Now, the one true standout in this whole 16-day stretch shows up on Saturday, the 19th, in the morning. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The swell is still solid at around 6 feet from the ESE, with a long 12-second period, and the energy is strong at 941. But the magic is the wind: it’s glassy – flat out calm from the NE. That’s about as clean as it gets. The call is for "good surf conditions," and given the long period and that glass, this is the day to be out there. It’s still not a beginner wave at 6 feet, but for anyone with a bit of experience, this is the pick of the fortnight. The water temp is about 70°, which is about normal for this time of year, so not a drama. Just keep in mind that the afternoon sees the wind turn cross-on again, so get your session in early.

After that, it’s back to the grind. Sunday the 20th sees the swell drop to around 4 feet, and we slide back into small, cross-on slop. The rest of the second week, from the 21st through to the 27th, is looking weak again – energy readings mostly under 125, swells under 4 feet, and the wind never really giving us a clean look. There’s nothing else that even gets close to a recommendation. The long-range stuff that looked promising is now fizzling out into small, short-period leftovers.

So, bottom line: if you’re keen, be on the water at Happys on the morning of Saturday the 19th. That’s your window. The rest is a waiting game. Forecasts can change, but right now, that’s the only real shot we’ve got.

Rusty.

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