Happys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s not sugarcoat it: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak for any decent waves. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions ahead, with only a couple of fleeting moments that might be worth a paddle, and even those are pretty ordinary. There’s a bit of life in the ocean towards the end of the run, but it’s still not looking like anything to get excited about.

The main issue is that relentless east-northeast swell is pounding our sheltered point, and the wind just won’t leave us alone. For the first week and a half, it’s the same story every day: small waves, cross-onshore winds, and a choppy mess. We’re looking at combined energy readings mostly in the low hundreds – weak to barely moderate stuff. The swell heights stay under 5ft for the most part, but the quality is just not there.

Now, the first real, albeit small, window shows up on the morning of Saturday the 22nd. We’ve got a glassy 4ft of east swell, but the period is a short 7 seconds, and the combined energy is a weak 136. It’s surfable on a longboard, but it’s really just a grovel. The same story for Sunday the 23rd morning – glassy 4ft, but again, short period and weak energy. These are your only real chances for a clean wave in that first stretch, and they’re marginal.

We then hit a full flat spell from the 24th right through the 29th. The swell just dies, with heights dropping to around 2ft and weak energy readings in the 40s and 60s. It’s a proper dead period.

Finally, around the 30th of August, the ocean wakes up a bit. The morning is a cross-on mess, but the afternoon of Sunday the 30th sees the swell jump to 7ft from the southeast. However, the period is a short 7 seconds, and it’s cross-onshore and choppy. That’s a raw, lumpy 7ft – it’s got some push, but it’s not clean. The 31st is a bit smaller but still cross-shore and messy.

Looking into the first week of September, the wind is still a problem. We’ve got moderate cross-onshore breezes and rain showers, but the swell does start to show a bit more direction. On the morning of the 2nd of September, there’s a spurt of 2ft swell with a very long 11-second period, but the wind is still cross-on and choppy. It’s a tease. By the 3rd, we’re back to small, messy surf.

So where does that leave us? Honestly, the standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of Saturday the 22nd. It’s a clean, glassy 4ft of east swell, and it’s the only time we get a real window of calm before the next week of mush. The other option is the morning of Sunday the 23rd, which is essentially the same thing. Both are for the patient and the desperate. The bigger 7ft on the 30th is too messy and blown out to recommend to anyone but the most determined, and even then, it’s a battle.

The water temp is 68°F, which is about 2°F colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want the full suit. The crowd factor: this place is often busy, so even in these poor conditions, you might have company.

It’s a tough outlook, folks. But that’s how it goes sometimes. The ocean’s always changing, and a forecast this far out can shift. Keep an eye on it, but don’t hold your breath. For now, maybe wax up the longboard for a few small, clean ones on the 22nd, or just give it a rest.

Rusty, out.

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