Happys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get real about what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I’ve gotta be straight with you: this is a tough one. The whole 16-day window is looking pretty grim for Happys. There’s nothing here that’s worth paddling out for. The first week is a total write-off, with small, weak, and messy conditions. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf from the 24th of July all the way through to the 6th of August. The swell is tiny, often under 3 ft, mostly from the east, and the wind is constantly cross or cross-onshore, keeping the surface chopped up. You’ll see some weak energy readings, like 106 (moderate) on the 24th morning, but it just doesn’t come together. The water temp is sitting at 68°, which is about 2° cooler than average for this time of year, so it’s a bit nippy, but nothing wild.

In the second week, things get bigger, but it’s not a good thing. The swell picks up from the 2nd of August, but it’s all wind-affected junk. The combined energy jumps up to 487 (strong) and then 800 (strong) on the 3rd, but it’s a messy, cross-onhore mess. By the 4th, we’re looking at 8 ft to 10 ft of swell, and the energy is hitting 1027 (very strong) – but it’s all coming with a strong cross-on wind. The period is short, around 8 seconds, so it’s just a lumpy, blown-out wall of white water. For a point break that’s sheltered and needs a clean NE swell, this southeast wind is the kiss of death. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The conditions are too rough and ugly for a proper session.

The only faint glimmer comes on the morning of the 7th of August. The swell is 7 ft from the ESE with a very long period of 14 seconds, and the energy is a massive 1600 (very strong). The wind is cross-shore, which is better than onshore, and the report calls it just “marginal.” But because it’s so far out, that’s a long-range promise. Even then, the period is so long that a point break like Happys might actually see the waves closing out or going a bit too straight. It’s a big, powerful groundswell, but it’s not a sure thing. The rest of that week drops back down to 4 ft to 5 ft with the same old cross-on wind.

So, what’s the best on offer? I can’t honestly call any of this a standout. The 7th of August morning is the only day that even gets a whisper of a chance, but it’s a gamble. For now, the forecast is a blank, and the break is fairly consistent normally, so this quiet spell is a bit of a bummer. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

Read more