56th St Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’m going to be straight with you. We’re looking at a grim 16 days ahead for 56th St. The long-range picture is a bummer, with little to no quality surf on the table. The first record shows a bit of swell arriving Wednesday, July 29th, but don’t get your hopes up.

Wednesday morning, July 29th, we’ve got some background swell in the water – about 3 ft coming from the SSW with a long 16-second period, giving us moderate wave energy (783). The water is sitting at a very warm 72°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year. But here’s the kicker: the wind is onshore from the S at 9 mph, and the wave comment is "poor surf conditions." It’s a total write-off for surfing. That afternoon, the swell bumps up to 4 ft with the same direction and period, but the wind shifts to a light SW onshore at 6 mph, and it’s still rated as poor. Not a chance.

We then slide into Thursday, July 30th, through the rest of the 16-day window, and it’s a wasteland. The swell drops off quickly. From Thursday onward, we’re talking tiny surf – mostly 1 ft to 2 ft, sometimes reaching 3 ft, but the wind is either onshore or cross-onshore. The wave energy dips into the weak two-digit values (like 79, 94, 95) and occasionally climbs back into the low triple digits (like 204, 233, 343). But not once does the wave comment improve past "poor surf conditions" or "marginal surf forecast." The period stays long (12-19 seconds) on these tiny, weak swells, which means long waits between sets for barely ridable mush.

There is a significant gap here. After the first couple of days, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. It’s a run of flat, onshore junk. For a beach break that is sheltered and requires swell from the SW, this is a normal blank run for the area. The wind is mostly onshore from the SSW or SW, and while it’s light sometimes (3-6 mph), the cross-onshore direction and lack of decent swell size make it a mess.

Honestly, if you’re desperate for a session, Thursday afternoon, July 30th, might show a tiny spike to 4 ft with a light cross-onshore wind, but even that is called “marginal.” Not one day stands out as good. The best you can say is that there is a bit of energy in the water on August 7th (Friday) with a 19-second period and moderate energy (233), but it’s only 1 ft of swell. For a point break or reef, a long period on a small swell can make for tricky, close-out conditions.

Forget about it. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing with this constant onshore wind and small, choppy waves. Keep your board in the car and wait for a change. Forecasts can change, but from here, it’s a no-go.

Rusty.

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