56th St Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way.

Honestly, it’s a pretty frustrating picture for the next couple of weeks. The swell is just not lining up with the wind. We’ve got some pulses of energy, but the conditions are making it near impossible to get a clean wave. The water is sitting at 74°, which is a massive 6° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a real standout, the ocean feels like a bath.

We start off on Monday, September 7th with a bit of size; a 5ft SSW swell, but the 12 mph W wind is cross, so it’s choppy and messy. The combined energy is moderate at 797 but the wave comment says it all – “poor surf conditions.” Not worth paddling out.

Tuesday the 8th has a chance in the morning. The swell eases to 3ft from the SSW, but the W wind drops to a light 6 mph and it’s cross-shore. Combined energy is 441. The report calls it “marginal,” and with small crossing wind ripples, it’s not going to be clean, but it’s the best we’ll see for a while. If you’re desperate, you could have a splash.

From Tuesday afternoon onwards, it’s a long, grim stretch. Through Wednesday, Thursday, and all the way into the weekend, we get tiny swell, often under 2ft, and the wind keeps shifting cross-onshore or onshore. The combined energy drops into the 100s and 200s, which is weak. The only break we’ve got is 56th St (Virginia Beach), and it’s sheltered from the SW, so it needs a good window that just isn’t opening.

We get a slight tickle around September 18th. That Friday morning sees a 2ft SW groundswell with a very long 19-second period, and light W wind going cross-shore. The combined energy jumps to 517, which is moderate, but the report still says “marginal surf forecast.” That long period will make the waves very straight at this beach break – better for a point or reef, which we don’t have. Not a sure thing.

The same pattern holds for the 20th and 21st: a bit more energy (combined energy up to 551 on the 21st) but with onshore or onshore-crossover winds. It’s just not coming together for clean, rideable surf.

So, the honest truth: there are no true standouts in this 16-day window. The best bet is that Tuesday morning, September 8th, for a small, marginal wave if you’re really keen. Everything else is a write-off. A blank run like this can happen when the wind and swell just refuse to cooperate. Maybe the long-range models will shift, but for now, take a break.

Rusty.

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