56th St Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for 56th St over the next couple of weeks.

Alright, straight up: this is a frustrating run. The forecast is telling me we’ve got a solid 16-day window, but honestly, for the vast majority of it, 56th St is looking like a write-off. The surf quality is just not there, with poor conditions and a persistent cross-onshore wind messing things up day after day. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, choppy, and wind-affected waves. The only real glimmer of hope, and I mean the only one, is way out at the very end of the forecast.

The water temperature here is about 68°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can leave the thick rubber at home.

Now, let’s walk through the misery. Starting Monday morning, the 13th of July, we get a 3-foot swell from the SSW, but it’s a cross-on wind and the energy is weak (276). The afternoon is more of the same. Tuesday the 14th drops to 2-foot, still cross-on and choppy. This pattern just keeps going – Wednesday, Thursday, Friday… all small, all cross-on, all poor. The combined energy stays in the low to mid hundreds, confirming it’s all weak and messy. For a couple of days, like Saturday the 18th, we get a bit of an onshore wind, but it’s still tiny at 2-foot.

There’s a bit of a lift in swell size starting around Thursday the 23rd of July, with 5-foot surf from the S, but the wind is still cross-on and the energy (980) is moderate. The comment says “poor surf conditions,” so don’t get excited. It’s the same story for Friday the 24th, just a little smaller.

Then, finally, we get to the standout. Monday morning, the 27th of July. This is the one. The wind goes glassy, a light breeze from the SSW at just 3 mph. The swell is 2-foot from the SW with a very long period of 18 seconds, and the combined energy is a moderate 493. The forecast actually says “expect good surf conditions.” This is a long-period groundswell, so the waves will have real shape and power behind them, but at a beach break like 56th St, it might be a little too straight. Still, with glassy conditions, it’s your best chance by a mile. Because this spot is very consistent, there’s usually something to be found, but it’s been a long wait for this one.

The crowds here can be an issue sometimes, so if you’re heading out for that Monday morning window, get there early. After that, the wind goes cross-on again in the afternoon and the magic is gone.

So, to wrap it up: the first two weeks are a total bust. If you’re desperate, pin all your hopes on that Monday morning, the 27th of July. It’s a long way off, so the forecast might change, but right now, that’s the only play.

- Rusty

Read more