Caspar Creek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gutted, folks. I’ve been staring at the charts for Caspar Creek (Mendocino) for the next couple of weeks, and I gotta be straight with you: it’s a grim run. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but the surf quality is just not there. The forecast keeps spitting out “poor surf conditions” for almost every session, and that’s the long and short of it.

The water is sitting at a noticeably cold 54° right now, which is a good 4° colder than usual for this time of year. That’s a bit of a shock to the system, so bring the thickest rubber you own.

Looking at the first week, from the 15th to the 21st, it’s a mess. We start with small, weak waves—around 3 ft on Saturday the 15th, with the energy reading a paltry 98. The wind is mostly cross-onshore, keeping things lumpy and chopped up. There’s a slight bump in size on Monday the 17th to 4 ft, but the energy is still weak (142) and the wind keeps messing with the surface. It’s just not worth paddling out for this close to shore, especially with the sheltered setup here. Through mid-week, the swell builds a bit, hitting 7 ft by Wednesday the 19th, but it’s all wrapped in cross-onshore wind and terrible shape. The energy is moderate (700), but it’s not doing us any favors. We get a little glimmer of hope on Thursday the 20th morning with a longer period swell—12 seconds at 3 ft—but the wind is still on it, and the guidance still calls it poor. That long period is a tease, but the break here, being sheltered, just isn’t lining up. That whole first week is basically a write-off.

The second week, starting around the 22nd, the size picks up but the quality doesn’t. Saturday the 22nd has some proper juice—7 ft with strong energy (1166)—but it’s all cross-onshore and messy. This is getting to be too big for beginners, and honestly, the conditions are so poor it’s hard to recommend it to anyone. We keep seeing 6 ft to 6 ft waves through the 25th, but the story is the same: cross-onshore wind, choppy faces, and a general lack of any real structure. The energy is moderate (around 650-700), but it’s all wasted energy. It just looks like a washing machine out there. For a beach-and-reef setup like this, with that much cross-onshore wind and mess, this is looking way more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers.

The final few days, from the 27th on, don’t offer any redemption. The swell stays solid, with the 29th and 30th seeing some real size—12 ft on Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon. But that’s way over the limit for most of us, and it’s only for experts. The wind is still cross-onshore, and the “poor surf conditions” tag is still there. The energy on the 30th is a massive 1768, which is very strong, but it’s all just raw power with no shape. There is one brief moment on the morning of the 30th with lighter onshore wind and a 8 ft swell that gets a “marginal” call, but the long-range reliability on that is weak. It’s a distant promise at best.

The bottom line is this: there are no standouts in this window. This is a blank run, and it’s the kind of stretch that’s more normal for this area. But even so, I’ve seen this spot get good in a hurry. Forecasts can change. When the wind finally swings offshore, the energy is there. So don’t sell your boards. Just keep the leashes waxed and the patience high.

Rusty.

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