Caspar Creek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Caspar Creek (Mendocino) has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.

It’s a mixed bag, to be honest. The early part of the outlook is pretty much a washout for quality surfing, with a persistent cross-onshore wind from the Northwest messing up what could be fun waves. The combined swell energy is moderate for most of this run, but the wind just kills it. The water temp is sitting around 55°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no shock to the system there.

Saturday the 11th starts small, with a 2ft NW swell at a short 10 seconds, but that cross-on breeze at 6 mph keeps things bumpy. By the afternoon, the swell jumps to 6ft but the period drops to 6 seconds and the wind picks up—just choppy, messy conditions. Sunday the 12th sees the swell building to 7ft – 8ft from the NW, period at 8 seconds, and moderate combined energy (550 to 787), but again, that cross-onshore wind (9 mph) makes it a poor surf call. For beginners, by Sunday afternoon that 8ft is getting too big and tricky, especially with the onshore chop.

Monday the 13th through Thursday the 16th is more of the same: solid NW swell, mostly between 6ft and 8ft, with combined energy swinging from moderate to strong (387 up to 1381). The wind stays cross-onshore from the NW at 9 to 16 mph, and the wave comment is consistently “poor surf conditions.” There’s a window early Thursday morning the 16th with lighter wind (9 mph) and a 8ft swell at 9 seconds, but it’s still cross-onshore and “fairly choppy.” Not great.

Now, Friday the 17th things get interesting. The wind shifts around to the SW, lighter at 6-9 mph, and the swell drops back to 3ft – 5ft. The period on the Friday morning swell hits 18 seconds—that’s a proper long-period groundswell. The combined energy is strong at 1003. The catch? It’s still cross-onshore and the wave comment just says “marginal,” likely due to tide. Still, that long period means better shape and more energy between sets, so it’s worth a look if you can time the tide right. Saturday the 18th continues this trend: morning has a light onshore wind at 6 mph from the W, a 3ft swell at 16 seconds, and combined energy at 955. It’s still “marginal,” but that’s the cleanest wind we’ve seen in a while.

After that, from Sunday the 19th onward we slip back into a pattern of NW cross-onshore winds and moderate to strong NW swell, mostly 4ft to 8ft, with periods around 8-9 seconds. The combined energy stays moderate to strong, but the wind keeps it choppy. By the end of the run, Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th, the swell gets big—10ft to 12ft from the NW, with very strong energy (1414 to 1922). That’s expert-only territory, and with a persistent cross-onshore breeze, it’ll be a washing machine out there.

Honestly, for straight-up paddle surfing, the first week is a bit of a bust. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfers when the swell is up and the wind is cross-onshore. The best bet for a clean wave is probably that Friday-Saturday window (17th-18th) when the wind goes light and the swell has some real groundswell period. Keep an eye on the tides for that window. For the rest, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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