Caspar Creek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is a tricky stretch for Caspar Creek. Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day window, the surf is mostly a battle with the wind. We’ve got a long run of cross-onshore conditions that are going to chop things up and keep the quality down. Don’t get too excited, but there is one window near the end that looks like it could be worth a paddle.

First up, this Tuesday and Wednesday are a write-off. You’ve got small, weak swell and a cross-onshore breeze. It’s just messy out there. The energy is weak, in the 147 to 251 range, and it’s not going to be any fun. Then we get into Thursday and Friday with some more size, but that wind is picking up. Thursday morning has a little push of 4ft from the NW, but the onshore breeze is already there chapping it up. The energy jumps to 365 in the morning, but it’s just not clean. Friday sees the biggest swell of this opening period, hitting 8ft with a period of 8 seconds. The energy is solid (1111-1237), but it’s coming with a 12 mph cross-onshore wind, so it’s going to be a lumpy, wind-blown mess. The break is consistent, so there’s always something, but it’s not quality.

We roll into the weekend with the swell dropping back to under 3ft on Saturday, and that NW wind is still blowing. The energy drops back to the 500-600 range. Sunday sees a bit more size, but the wind gets stronger in the afternoon. We’re still not looking at anything you’d set an alarm for.

Next week, Monday the 14th is when things get interesting size-wise, with the swell building to 10ft in the afternoon from the NW. But the period is short, only 8 seconds, and that wind has ramped up to a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore. It’s going to be a big, unruly, lumpy mess. The energy is a strong 1440, but it’s not a paddle-surf setup. At that size and with that wind, this looks way more interesting for the kite crew than for us. This pattern of junky NW windswell continues through the middle of the week, with the wind staying cross-onshore and the waves staying short-period and choppy.

Now, here’s the one glimmer of hope. On Friday the 18th, the afternoon shows a change. The wind swings around to the SW, drops to 3 mph, and it’s glassy. The swell is 5ft from the NW with an 8-second period. The energy is moderate at 622, and the model is saying “expect good surf conditions.” This is the standout of the whole period. It’s the only time we get clean conditions. Don’t expect perfection—the period is still short, so it won’t have that real push, but it will be the most surfable it’s been in a long time.

The next couple of days, Saturday and Sunday, tease us with some size, 7ft on Saturday, but the wind is back to cross-onshore and it’s chopping it up again. The energy is there, but the quality is gone.

The second week is a bit of a blur of marginal conditions. The first week’s forecast is more reliable, but the long-range stuff for the 23rd shows a pulse of long-period, 12-second swell on Wednesday morning hitting 5ft. That’s a promising sign, but it comes with a cross-onshore wind, and we’re far out, so keep expectations in check.

The water temp is sitting at 59° with a tiny anomaly of +0.5°, so that’s about average for this time of year. You’ll want the rubber.

So, bottom line: it’s a bleak outlook for the most part. The only true standout is Friday afternoon, the 18th, when the wind finally dies and the sea goes glassy. Get on it if you can, because the rest of the window is a grind of onshore slop. The setup is consistent, so it’s never flat for long, but it’s mostly a mess. If the wind keeps up, the kites will be having all the fun. Keep your eye on that Friday afternoon window, and we’ll see what the ocean gives us.

Rusty

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