Caspar Creek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’re looking at Caspar Creek (Mendocino County), and honestly, for the next week and a half, it’s a tough stretch. The water’s sitting at 54°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good 4/3. The pattern is dominated by a persistent cross-onshore wind out of the northwest, keeping things choppy and messy.

Starting Monday the 6th, it’s a no-go. We’ve got 5ft of short-period, weak energy (444) wind swell from the NW, but the cross-on breeze has the surface all torn up. That same story holds through Tuesday and Wednesday—the swell builds a bit, hitting 6ft and then 8ft, but the wind stays on it, and the wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. The combined energy climbs into the moderate range (615 to 554), but without clean wind, it doesn’t matter.

Thursday the 9th sees the swell punch up to 10ft from the NW with strong energy (1136), but that’s way too big for Caspar Creek, a sheltered beginner spot, and the wind is still cross-on at 16 mph. That’s a washing machine for experts only, and honestly, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Friday the 10th stays similar, with 8ft swell and the same onshore breeze.

We finally get a bit of a drop over the weekend of the 11th and 12th, but the wind doesn’t let up. Saturday morning has 5ft, but it’s still cross-on. The long-range stretch from the 13th to the 16th shows a mix of small, short-period junk and then a weird pulse of very long-period groundswell from the SW (18 to 19 seconds) on the 15th and 16th, but those are tiny waves, 1ft to 2ft, and the 16 mph wind just makes it a bumpy lake. The energy is moderate (up to 682), but there’s no shape.

Now, the light at the end of the tunnel. Look at Friday the 17th and, especially, Saturday the 18th. Friday the 17th afternoon brings a solid 10ft NW swell with very strong energy (1614) and the wind finally drops to a light 6 mph. That’s still big for this spot, but the conditions are turning. Then Saturday the 18th afternoon is the real standout. The swell drops to a more manageable 6ft from the NW, the energy is still strong (1269), and the wind goes glassy—a slight air from the SSW at 3 mph. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” For Caspar Creek, glassy conditions on a NW swell that matches its optimum direction? That’s the window. The sets will be from the NW, and with light winds, it’ll be clean. Keep in mind this is a consistent break, but it can get crowded often, so get out early.

The rest of the 18th and into the 19th is a step back with cross-on wind returning, and the final few days of the 20th and 21st are small and poor again. So to sum it up: the first ten days are a write-off. The best on offer is Saturday the 18th afternoon—that’s your day if you’ve got patience.

Stay tuned, forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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