Caspar Creek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s lined up for Caspar Creek. I gotta be straight with you – the next two weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, mostly lean, but there’s a flash of something special right at the very end if you’ve got the patience and the skill.

The water temperature at Caspar Creek is running at 55°, which is a solid 4° colder than normal for this time of year. That’s a noticeable drop, so don’t forget your thickest wetsuit. It’s a sheltered spot, and most of the action comes from the NW.

Right now, through the first few days, it’s pretty grim. Tuesday the 1st and Wednesday the 2nd are nothing but poor surf conditions – small, weak, and messy with a cross-shore wind messing things up. The swell energy is weak to moderate (between 109 and 397), and you’re looking at waves around 2ft to 3ft with nowhere to hide from the wind. Not worth paddling out.

We get a bump in size on Thursday the 3rd – 6ft in the morning and 7ft in the afternoon – but the wind is still cross or cross-on, and the wave comment calls it “marginal.” The combined energy jumps up to 528 and even 1084, so there’s some power, but it’s just not clean enough. Friday the 4th keeps that 7ft to 6ft range, but again, it’s cross-on and a bit choppy. The next few days into the second week, from the 5th to the 8th, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-on, the swell drops back under 3ft, then spikes up to 8ft on the 8th, but it’s all poor surf conditions. No good options here, folks. This whole stretch from the 1st to the 8th is basically a write-off for quality waves.

Now, we start to see a glimmer on Wednesday the 9th. The afternoon goes glassy – finally! – with 4ft waves, but it’s a short period of 8 seconds, and the comment says “ordinary.” It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about. The real stand-out starts to set up on Thursday the 10th. The afternoon turns glassy again, this time with a 5ft swell from the NW at a longer 12-second period. The combined energy is 593, and the comment says “expect good surf conditions.” That is your best bet for clean, fun waves in the first two weeks. Swell direction (NW) is right on the money for Caspar Creek. Keep in mind, it’s still a consistent spot, so with that glassy wind, it’ll be well worth a session.

After that, the conditions get a bit woolly again. Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th bring a long-period SW groundswell (15-16 seconds, 3ft to 3ft). The combined energy is quite high (over 800), but the direction is off-optimum for Caspar Creek, and the wind is cross-on. It’s marginal, not terrible, but not great. Then Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th are poor again with onshore conditions.

Now, for the true standout. This one is long-range, so it’s promising but less certain. Late in the forecast, on the morning of Wednesday the 16th, we see a building 10ft groundswell from the NW with offshore wind. But it’s the afternoon of the 16th that is the headline act. We are looking at a massive 15ft NW swell, with a short period of 9 seconds, and it’s glassy. The combined energy is a huge 3246. The guidance says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” Let me be clear: at 15ft, this is experts only. This is not a day for beginners. For those who can handle it, Caspar Creek will be thumping if the wind stays clean. The short period will make it dumpy and fast. It’s a serious setup, and the absolute peak of the whole 16-day window.

So to sum it up: the first week is poor. Thursday the 10th afternoon offers the best clean session in the near term. And don’t blink – if you’re an expert, the 16th of September afternoon is the one you wait for.

- Rusty

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