Watergate Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – for the next 16 days, Watergate Bay is looking like a write-off for any decent surf. We’ve got a long, dry spell of flat and weak conditions ahead, so leave the boards in the car and maybe bring a kite if you’re that way inclined.

Let’s break it down. Starting Sunday the 12th, we’ve got tiny 2ft swell from the north with a short period of 5 seconds, and the combined energy is a measly 51 (weak). That’s not enough to get excited about. The water is sitting at 65°, which is a whopping 4° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual and feels like a warm bath. The wind is cross-off from the ENE at 16 mph, so it’s clean, but there’s just no power in the water.

This pattern continues all the way through the week. Morning glass-offs and light breezes on the 15th, 16th, and 21st give us clean surfaces, but the swell never gets above 2ft, and the energy is stuck in the double digits. A 2ft wave with 35 (weak) energy on the 15th is barely a ripple. The only glimmer of a decent wave pops up on the 14th Tuesday afternoon, when we get a 1ft swell from the west with a long period of 11 seconds and offshore wind, but the energy is still only 46 (weak) – it’s surfable, but very ordinary.

The story doesn’t get any better. We’re looking at a solid 10-day gap of poor surf quality. The little pulses of swell on the 20th and 21st are still small and weak. The wind stays mostly cross-off or cross, so it’s clean, but there’s simply no swell to work with.

Now, hold on to your hat. On Thursday the 23rd, we finally see a big jump in size – 8ft from the NNW, but it’s a short period of 7 seconds and the combined energy jumps to 539 (moderate to strong). The problem? That’s coming with a fresh cross-shore wind from the SW at 19 mph, making it lumpy and choppy. That’s not a surfable setup; it’s a messy, blown-out mess. That size is also too big for beginners. The same story repeats on the 26th with 7ft from the west and the biggest energy reading of the period at 617 (strong), but again, ruined by a fresh cross-shore wind.

For the second week, the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, keeping the water choppy. The swell is bigger but messy. Nothing here is worth paddling out for.

In short, there are no good surf options in this 16-day window. The only real standout is the afternoon of the 14th, but it’s a tiny, weak wave. For now, the forecast looks like a kiteboarder’s paradise more than a surfer’s. It tends not to stay this poor for long, but this run is a blank.

Rusty.

Read more