Watergate Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the next couple of weeks for Watergate Bay. I’ve got to be straight with you – it’s a tough run of forecasts. The swell is there at times, sizeable even, but the wind is almost always working against us. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf quality, so don’t get your hopes up for anything clean.

The Overall Pattern

The problem is that onshore wind is the relentless theme. For the first week plus, we’ve got a lot of cross-onshore wind, making everything choppy. There’s a period of moderate swell energy, but it’s blown out. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so don’t expect any surprises there.

The Breakdown

Starting this Saturday, the 5th, we have a WNW swell of 5ft, with a period of 11 seconds. The combined energy is moderate, at 485, but it’s a light onshore breeze. It’s surfable, but “marginal” is the word. The afternoon goes cross-on, and it’s a loss.

Sunday the 6th is a write-off. The wind flips offshore, which sounds great, but it’s a fresh 19 mph SSE wind on a tiny 2ft swell. The energy is weak (85). It’s clean, but there’s nothing to ride.

The real kicker comes Monday the 7th. A strong WNW swell arrives, pushing 8ft with a long 13-second period. The energy is very strong at 1783. That’s a lot of water moving. But the wind is a moderate cross-onshore, and it’s just too choppy. For a beach break, that long period groundswell can look a bit straight, and with the wind on it, the quality is poor. It’s a big, messy wave only for the experts.

This pattern of cross-onshore wind and choppy, poor conditions continues right through to the 10th. The swell stays up around 5ft to 7ft, and the energy is moderate to strong, but the wind is a killer. It’s more of a kiteboarding setup than a surfing one.

The One Standout

There’s only one window that looks worth a second look. It’s not a classic, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. On Sunday the 13th, we see a shift. The swell drops to 2ft, but we get a clean, cross-offshore wind from the east at 15 mph. The energy is weak (104), but the conditions are described as “clean.” With a 10-second period, it’s a short, clean little wave. If you’re desperate for a paddle, this is the morning. The same goes for Monday the 14th, with a gentler breeze and 1ft surf, but it’s tiny. For the rest of the second week, it’s mostly tiny surf with clean conditions, but nothing with any punch.

The Verdict

Honestly, for the next 16 days, there’s no real standout session. The one clean window on the 13th and 14th is the only chance to get wet, but it’s a knee-high dribbler. The rest is either too big, too onshore, or too small. It’s a blank run, and I’ve seen this before here. It tends not to stay this poor for too long. Keep your eyes on the charts, but for now, maybe take the boards off the roof.

Rusty.

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