Watergate Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Watergate Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I’ll be straight with you – the first week and a half is a tough one. We’ve got a fair bit of swell pushing in, but the wind is just not playing ball. It’s a real tale of two halves: plenty of wave energy, but blown out or messy conditions. The water is currently sitting at 65°F, which is a touch warmer than you’d expect for the time of year, so that’s a small comfort if you’re getting in.

The first real pulse of energy comes in on Saturday the 29th of August with a WSW swell of 8ft at 9 seconds. The combined energy is a strong 1076, but with a strong 28 mph W wind, it’s a cross-on mess. Not one for the paddle. Sunday the 30th is more of the same with cross winds and lumpy conditions. This pattern of fresh cross-onshore or cross winds continues right through the first week. Monday the 31st does see a 10ft W swell – that’s a big one, combined energy of 1416 – and the wind is offshore from the NW, but the data still says poor surf. That’s a real head-scratcher. Maybe it’s just too much power for the sandbanks to handle.

By Tuesday the 1st of September the swell drops right back to 4ft W, but it’s still cross-shore and slight. The energy is down to 196, so it’s weak. This limp, messy run continues into the first week of September. There’s a big spike again on Friday the 4th of September with a 10ft WNW swell (1700 energy), but again, a fresh onshore wind spoils it. We see the same on the 12th of September with a massive 12ft W swell (3266 energy) and a nasty cross-on 22 mph wind. That’s kite-surfing territory, not a log or a shortboard, unless you’re a masochist.

The real glimmer of hope, and the only thing I’d mark on the calendar, comes on Thursday the 10th of September. The swell is small, only 3ft from the W, but look at the period: 14 seconds. That’s a very long-period groundswell. The combined energy is a solid 625. More importantly, the wind is offshore from the SSE at 16 mph, and it’s clean. The data says it’s marginal because of the tide, but that’s the only window with clean conditions. If you time the tide right, Thursday afternoon could be glassy and groomed. It’s a long way out, so don’t expect perfection, but it’s the standout.

After that, it’s back to the rough stuff. The run from the 11th to the 13th of September is again big, messy, and blown out. The 13th has a 7ft WNW swell with a 12-second period (1229 energy) and an onshore NW wind. It’s not going to be pretty.

So, to sum it up: the first 11 days are a write-off. There’s a massive gap of poor surf with no real recommendation. The only true standout is the offshore window on Thursday the 10th. It’s a one-day wonder, but with a long period and light offshore wind, it could be the only time you get a clean wave. Lock that date in, but keep your expectations realistic.

Rusty

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