Watergate Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Watergate Bay. I've got to be straight with you—this 16-day run looks pretty bleak for the most part. The guidance points to this spot being a beginner-friendly, fairly consistent break that likes a WNW swell, which we do get at times, but the wind and conditions just aren't lining up.

We’re starting off on Monday the 27th of July with some chest-high swell around 3ft from the WNW, but the wind is on it from the same direction, so it's going to be a messy, blown-out affair. Not one to get excited about. That theme carries on through the rest of the week.

There’s a tiny window on Tuesday the 28th morning. The swell drops right off to knee-high (2ft), but there’s a light cross-offshore breeze. The wave energy is weak (65), so it’s super small and marginal, but at least it will be clean. Honestly, it’s barely a wave.

Then we enter a proper drought. From Wednesday the 29th all the way through to Saturday the 8th of August, the surf is consistently poor. Swell heights hover around knee-high or smaller, winds are cross, on, or cross-on, and the energy readings are bottomed out in the 20s and 30s. The 3rd of August sees a pulse of NNW windswell at about waist-high (4ft), and you get clean conditions with an offshore SE wind, but the period is a short 6 seconds—just weak, lumpy windswell. Better than nothing, but still not good.

After that, it’s back to tiny, choppy nothingness for nearly a week.

Now, the end of the outlook gets interesting, but it's a long way off. Sunday the 9th of August brings a proper surge of energy. By Sunday afternoon, we’ve got a solid 6ft swell from the WSW with an 11-second period. The combined energy jumps to 944—that’s strong. The issue? The wind is cross-onshore and moderate, so it’s going to be a choppy, messy power session. It’s a big swell for here, and at over 5ft it's getting too big for beginners. It'll be a battle.

The standout in this whole forecast is Monday the 10th of August. The swell holds at a powerful 7ft from the W with a 10-second period, and the energy is still very strong at 884. But again, the wind is onshore from the NNW. This is big, heavy, onshore slop. The wave state is "unknown", which usually means it's a wall of white water. For experts only, and even then, it'll be a wrestling match. The following Tuesday the 11th of August morning sees the swell drop to 5ft with lighter winds from the WNW, but it's still onshore, and the conditions are labelled marginal.

In short, there are no true standouts with clean conditions. The best you can hope for is the morning of Tuesday the 28th July for a tiny, clean knee-knocker, or the big, messy power of the 9th and 10th of August if you're an expert and don't mind the wind. The water is currently a touch warmer than normal at 65°, which is pleasant.

Stay salty.

Rusty.

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