Aberdeen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got the lowdown for the Aberdeen stretch over the next couple of weeks. Looking at the whole run, it’s a pretty grim picture for us paddle surfers – there are big gaps where there’s just nothing worth getting wet for, and the few moments with any energy are plagued by poor conditions or dodgy timing. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The first real sniff of something decent doesn’t show up until the morning of Monday, September 7th, but even that comes with a major warning.

Alright, let’s walk through it. The forecast kicks off with basically nothing. From Wednesday, August 26th right through to the end of the first week, it’s a wasteland of tiny, weak swell with poor to ordinary conditions. The combined energy is mostly pitiful, well under 100 for days on end. You’ll see a slight bump on Friday, August 28th with some 5ft to 5ft swell from the east, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph from the NNW or NW, which makes for clean faces but the “poor surf conditions” call tells the real story – it’s just not working here. A few moments on the 29th and 30th of August have some surfable waves, but they’re tiny and ordinary, nothing a local would paddle out for.

After that, a massive dry spell kicks in. From August 31st through to September 6th, the energy flatlines completely – a few days with less than 10 combined energy and swells barely registering. It’s a blank run that’s pretty normal for this area when it gets like this.

Now, the one stand out – and it’s a big one – is the morning of Monday, September 7th. A solid 13ft swell from the south with an 8-second period and a massive combined energy of 1823. The wind is cross-off at 22 mph from the SSW, so the surface will be clean. But here’s the kicker: the guidance says it’s predicted to be too big for this break, and for a beginner spot like Aberdeen, anything over 5ft is already too much. At 13ft, this is strictly for experts only, and even then, it’s a wild card. The swell direction is south, but the optimum here is SE, so it’s not hitting the break perfectly. I’d say it’s more interesting for the kite crew than us paddle surfers – the power is there, but the shape and safety are a real worry.

The rest of the second week fades back to tiny, weak energy with offshore winds but hardly any swell to work with. A few days of strong offshore breezes at 25 mph make it hard to even paddle out. So, overall, we’re looking at a long wait with only that one, very iffy, expert-only window on September 7th. Keep an eye on it, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty

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