Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Tolcarne over the next couple of weeks. I'm not gonna lie, this is a tough stretch to get excited about. The good news is, we do have some windows, so let's break it down.

For the first ten days or so, from Monday the 6th all the way through to Wednesday the 15th, it's a real struggle. The wave energy is weak, mostly under 100 and often in the low double digits, and the wind is all over the place. You're looking at tiny, gutless swell and a lot of cross-shore or onshore wind. Honestly, it's pretty grim and there isn't a single session I'd recommend paddling out for. For the first week and a half, it's a write-off.

There's a bit of a change sniffing around Thursday the 16th. Afternoon sees a pulse of waist-chest high swell push in from the west-southwest at 4 ft, but with a short, weak period of 6 seconds and a moderate cross-offshore wind. The wave energy climbs to a moderate 127, but the quality is still poor. It’s a tease, not a triumph.

Now, the real talking point is the final weekend. On Saturday the 18th, we’ve got a bigger swell arriving. On Saturday morning we're looking at a solid 7 ft swell from the west-southwest with a short 8 second period, and wave energy is up at 484 – that's moderate-to-strong energy. The problem? It’s onshore wind. The afternoon is similar. By Sunday the 19th, it drops a bit to 5 ft, but still onshore. The water temp is about 61°F, which is a touch warmer than average for this time of year, so at least the rubber isn't a total chore.

The absolute stand-out window, if it all lines up, is Monday the 21st of July. That Tuesday morning session is the one to circle. We’re looking at a legit 8 ft groundswell from the west, packing a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy reading is a whopping 1056, which is very strong. The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the east-southeast. Now, at this size, 8 ft is expert territory and it's a heavy wave. For a beach break like Tolcarne, that long-period groundswell can make it a bit straight and tricky. But if you've got the skills, the wind will be glassy clean and that is a powerful, mean wave. The Tuesday afternoon session is still solid at 8 ft with a cross-shore breeze and 888 energy, but the morning is the pick. It's a long-range call, so treat it with cautious optimism, but if it comes together, that's the day.

Stay patient, wait for that last Monday, and keep your eyes on the horizon.
Rusty.

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