Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and I’ve been lookin’ at the charts for Tolcarne. Straight up, it’s a tough one for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a 16-day window, but the first solid recommendation doesn’t pop up until the very end.

For the first week and a half, it’s pretty much a write-off. We’re talking from Tuesday the 14th all the way through to Saturday the 25th of July. That’s a long gap with nothing worth paddling out for. The swell is tiny, mostly under 3 ft, and what little there is gets torn apart by onshore or cross-shore winds. The water is a solid 65°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a solid 5° above average – but that’s the only nice thing I can say.

Finally, we get a bit of pulse on Saturday the 25th of July. The morning sees a small jump to 4 ft swell from the west, but it’s a short-period 6-second windswell with a moderate cross-onshore breeze, so the wave energy is only moderate (120). It’s messy, choppy stuff. The afternoon is similar, with 3 ft and cross-onshore winds. Not really a stand-out, just a slight improvement.

The real standout of the whole outlook is Sunday the 26th of July. The morning brings a 4 ft swell from the west, but the key difference is the period jumps to 11 seconds, giving it a long-period groundswell feel. The combined energy jumps to strong (350). The wind is onshore from the NNW at 16 mph, which is a shame, but the power is there. The afternoon has 4 ft from the west with a period of 11 seconds (energy 296) and a moderate cross-onshore breeze. This is by far the best energy of the period, but the wind direction keeps it from being perfect. It’s a bit of a raw, powerful day.

The pick of the bunch, if you’re desperate, is Tuesday the 28th of July in the afternoon. The swell is 4 ft from the WSW with an 8-second period, and the wind switches to a light cross-offshore breeze from the south, leaving it clean. The wave energy is moderate (251). It’s not huge, but it’s the cleanest surf of the whole forecast.

The last few days, the 29th, get bigger but messy. The morning of the 29th has 7 ft swell from the west, but it’s a short 7-second period, strong onshore cross-winds, and the energy is high (420). That’s a mushy, windy mess—only for the hardcore or kite surfers, honestly. The afternoon has 5 ft from the west at 10 seconds, but with a strong breeze, it’s messy.

So, bottom line: if you can wait, the cleanest window is the afternoon of the 28th. The most power is on the 26th, but it’s windy. The rest is a long, flat, and frustrating wait.

Rusty.

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