Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Tolcarne over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up – it’s a tough outlook for this corner of the coast. There’s a big fat gap of nothing worthwhile for the first five days. We’re staring down the barrel of poor surf conditions right through until Friday the 5th of September. The wind’s mostly cross-on or cross, and the swell’s either weak and short-period or just messy. A few of those early days have some size (Monday the 31st August kicks off with an 8-foot west swell at 10 seconds), but it’s trashy – lumpy, choppy, and cross-on. A total write-off.

Then we get a bit of a lull. Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th are tiny, with swells barely scraping 2 feet. The wind finally goes offshore on Sunday, but there’s just no energy to work with. It’s a clean but flat morning. From Monday the 7th through to Saturday the 12th, it’s a mixed bag of small to moderate west-southwest swells, but the wind keeps messing with it – cross-on, onshore, or too lumpy. The combined energy peaks around 405 (moderate) on Thursday the 10th, but that’s with a fresh cross-onshore and lumpy conditions. Not worth paddling out for.

Alright, here’s where it gets interesting. Monday the 14th of September is the standout in this whole forecast. We’ve got a solid 8-foot to 10-foot west swell rolling in with a 9-second period. The combined energy jumps to 1396 (strong). The wind is cross-off in the morning, and then cross in the afternoon – but get this: the afternoon is rated an 11/10 internally because the wind and tide are favorable, even though the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. For you and me? That’s expert territory. At over 8 feet, this is not one for the beginners. The swell direction (west) is spot-on for Tolcarne’s optimum. Expect powerful, thumping waves, but the size will close out the beach. This is a proper groundswell with a 10-second period, meaning long lines and long lulls – paddle out is easier, but the take-off is heavy.

Then Tuesday the 15th still has some strong leftover energy at 7 feet, with a longer 11-second period and cross-off winds. It’ll be big and clean, but still for experienced surfers only. After that, it fades back.

Crowds at Tolcarne can get busy, and with a wave this size, expect the lineup to be full of chargers. The water temperature is sitting at 65°F – a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, which takes the edge off the early autumn chill.

Bottom line: if you’re an expert and you’re keen, the 14th and 15th of September are your days. Everything before that is a skunk.

Rusty.

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