Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for Tolcarne over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a lean stretch. There’s a big fat gap of nothing at the start, and we’re waiting nearly a week before we see anything worth paddling out for.

The whole first week, from Monday the 27th of July all the way through to Sunday the 2nd of August, is a write-off. The swell is tiny, the wind is mostly cross or onshore, and the energy is weak. You’re looking at waves under 2 ft with combined energy figures barely cracking 100 (in the 40s and 60s range). It’s just not happening. The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least it’s not freezing while you’re sitting there waiting for nothing.

We finally get a pulse on Monday the 3rd of August. The morning sees a bit of a lift with a 4 ft swell from the north, and a gentle offshore wind from the southeast. That’s clean, glassy conditions. The combined energy jumps to 111 (moderate), which is the best we’ve seen by a long shot. It’s just ordinary surf – not a classic – but it’s the only real window. The afternoon stays clean with a light cross-off breeze, but the period drops to a short 5 seconds, so it’s going to be a bit crumbly and weak on the face.

After that, it drops off again. The 4th and 5th of August offer clean offshore winds, but the swell is tiny – 1.0 ft to 2 ft – with combined energy down in the teens and twenties. You’re essentially floating.

Then, a glimmer on the horizon. Sunday the 9th of August sees a building swell. By the afternoon, we’re looking at a 6 ft swell from the west-southwest with a period of 11 seconds, and combined energy roaring up to 944 (strong). That’s proper groundswell. But here’s the catch – the wind is cross-shore, moderate, and creating a chop. It’s surfable for sure, and the size is there, but it’s not clean. For a beginner, 6 ft is pushing it. For the experienced crew, it’s doable but messy.

Monday the 10th of August holds that size – 7 ft in the morning, 6 ft in the afternoon – but the wind goes straight onshore from the north-northwest, blowing it out. The energy is still high (884 and 759), but with that wind, it’s a washing machine. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Into the second week, Tuesday the 11th of August drops to 5 ft with a light cross-on breeze, combined energy at 375 (moderate). It’s marginal. The period is 9 seconds, so not a clean groundswell.

The only real standout in this whole 16-day run is Monday the 3rd of August morning. It’s not a huge swell, but with a 4 ft northwest swell and that gentle offshore wind from the southeast, the conditions are clean. It’s the best you’re going to get. The water is a touch warmer than normal, so it’s comfortable. The break is fairly consistent, but expect crowds – it’s often busy here. If you’re a beginner, this is your window.

For the rest of it, it’s a waiting game. Forecasts can change, and it tends not to stay this poor for long, but right now, the pickings are slim.

Rusty.

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