Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, and I’ve been diggin’ through the numbers for Tolcarne. Gotta be straight with you – this is a patchy outlook. It’s going to take some patience, but there are a couple of sessions that’ll make it worth hangin' your wettie out to dry.

We start off with a bit of a flat spell in terms of quality. The first week is a real battle against the wind. The swell is there, with moderate wave energy (373) kicking off Friday the 11th, but that cross-on wind is just choppin' it all up. It's a write-off for paddle surfing. This pattern of onshore and cross-onshore winds hangs around for days. Saturday the 12th sees cleaner conditions but with that moderate breeze (15-18 mph) from the southwest, it's still a tough ask for a clean ride. The swell holds at around 4ft to 5ft from the west, but the period is short at 8 seconds – not much push behind it. The big story early on is the poor surf quality. There’s a long gap here with nothing worth paddlin' out for proper.

The light starts to appear at the end of the first week. Monday morning the 14th is a little better – cleaner conditions with a light breeze and a 3ft west swell. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. That’s the best of a bad bunch for a while.

Then we get a big jump. Wednesday the 18th is where it gets interesting. The swell jumps up in quality. The wind goes light and offshore from the southwest in the morning, just 6 mph. The swell is 4ft from the west-northwest, but look at that period – 12 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is a solid 448. This is clean. The west swell direction lines up with what Tolcarne wants. It’s a consistent spot, so the waves should be rolling in. This is a stand-out. The water temp is about average for the time of year.

After that, it gets a bit bumpy again until Saturday the 19th. That afternoon, the wind goes glassy, and the swell holds at 7ft from the west. The combined energy is 568. That’s a fair bit of juice, but the period drops to 8 seconds. Still, with glassy conditions, it’s gonna be clean. For a more experienced beginner, this is a good one, but 7ft is pushing that beginner-friendly zone. This is your second standout.

The following week gets a bit wild. There’s a proper big swell due on Thursday the 25th and Saturday the 26th. We’re looking at 10ft west swell with very strong wave energy (1285+). The wind looks good, even glassy at times, but the forecast is clear: the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That’s expert territory, and even then, it might be a washing machine. Not for the faint-hearted. The Wednesday the 23rd morning is a sleeper – glassy conditions with a 7ft west swell. That’s clean but big.

Bottom line: This forecast is a slow burner. The best bets for a proper wave are Wednesday morning the 18th for that clean, long-period groundswell, and then Saturday afternoon the 19th for the glassy conditions. The first week is mostly a write-off. Keep your eye on the long-range, but don't book the week off work.

Rusty.

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