Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Tolcarne over the next couple weeks. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a bit of a rough patch ahead. We’ve got a long wait before anything really starts to shape up, and even then, it’s not gonna be easy.

For the first several days, it’s pretty grim. The swell’s there, but it’s all junked up. On Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th, we’re looking at around 4.9ft to 7.2ft of short-period, 8 to 9 second wind swell from the west, but it’s blown out by cross and cross-onshore winds. The water’s sitting at 64.4°, which feels a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s small comfort when you’re staring at a lumpy, choppy mess. The combined wave energy is moderate (287 to 691), but with the wind howling, it’s just poor surf conditions all the way.

Now, there is a tiny glimmer. Saturday morning, the 5th. We get a bit of a reprieve. The wind goes glassy – dead calm – and the swell from the west-northwest drops to 4.6ft with the period stretching out to 11 seconds. That’s a nice little groundswell. The combined energy is still moderate (467), but with those glassy conditions, you could get some clean, fun waves. It won’t be big, but it’ll be surfable. Afternoon stays glassy, just a touch smaller at 3.9ft (334 energy). This is the standout of the whole run, no doubt about it. It’s beginner-friendly at that size too, so get on it if you can.

But then it’s back to the wilderness. Sunday the 6th, the swell tanks to a tiny 2.0ft – not worth paddling out for, even with clean offshore winds. The next week is a real write-off. Monday the 7th brings a big spike in energy – 7.5ft of west swell at 12 seconds, with combined energy hitting 1480 – but it’s all cross-onshore and choppy. That’s expert-level size, but with that wind, it’s just messy. Tuesday the 8th is even bigger at 8.2ft, but again, blown out.

We go through a long, dry spell after that. Nothing surfable from Sunday the 6th all the way through to Monday the 14th. Just tiny waves and poor conditions. A couple of days in the second week, like the 15th and 16th of September, show a bit of long-period swell (15 to 16 seconds), but the wave energy is high (up to 1035) and it’s cross-onshore, so the quality is shot.

Overall, the forecast is a tough one. Don’t hold your breath for much, but that Saturday morning window on the 5th is your best bet. The rest of it, you might as well find something else to do.

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