Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: it’s a pretty bleak stretch ahead for our shores. We’re looking at a solid run of poor surf and messy winds for the next week and a half. The first real glimmer of hope doesn't show up until late in the game, and even that one's a bit of a gamble this far out. Hang tight, but maybe dust off the kiteboard for the meantime.

The whole 16-day window starts off with some weak, short-period swell out of the west at Tolcarne. The wave energy is weak, sitting around 129 units. But it doesn't matter much because we’ve got cross-onshore winds blowing it all to pieces. Friday the 14th is a write-off, and Saturday the 15th gets worse as a fresh northerly breeze kicks up, making things properly lumpy. The swell gets smaller heading into Sunday and Monday, with the energy dropping to around 33-66 units. It’s not even worth paddling out for that dribble.

We'll see a bit more push mid-week, around Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th, with the swell building to about 5 feet. The combined energy jumps into the moderate range, hitting 213 units. But with a fresh cross-onshore wind, it's just going to be a choppy, blown-out mess. It’s all surface noise and no shape. Not for the faint of heart, and honestly, not for anyone.

After that it fades out again, with small, weak surf under 3 feet for the rest of that week. Even a brief period of flatness around the 22nd, with the swell down to less than a foot and a long 15-second period, but that’s just forlorn. The ocean just looks like a lake, not a surf spot. You’d be better off going for a swim, though the water temperature is 66°, which is a good 4° warmer than usual for this time of year. Pretty notable.

The run of poor conditions is relentless. It’s a solid 12-13 day stretch of nothing. Then, on Thursday the 27th, we finally get a sign of life. It’s a late call, but the wind swings offshore, and the swell jumps to around 7 feet out of the west-southwest with a period of 8 seconds. The energy reads a strong 522 units. The morning still looks a bit weak, but that afternoon has the makings of something clean. This is the standout of the entire window—your one and only, as far as I can see. It's not huge, but with a clean offshore breeze, Tolcarne should finally show its face.

But hold on, don't book the time off yet. The next day, Friday the 28th, a massive swell hits. We’re talking 16 to 18 feet out of the west with a 12-13 second period. The energy is a colossal 7613 to 9075 units, but it’s accompanied by a near-gale cross-onshore wind. That is a giant, howling, blown-out mess. It's not surfing; it's survival. Only for the truly unhinged. And even then, it’s junk. That swell will stick around for Saturday at 11 to 13 feet with strong winds, but it's still all over the shop. Maybe a spectacle, but not for paddling.

So, there you have it. One proper window on the 27th looks like your best bet, and maybe a look at the giant, messy beast on the 28th if you’re in the mood for something completely different. The long-range stuff is still a fair way out, so keep your fingers crossed and check back in. Otherwise, it's a time for boat maintenance.

Later, Rusty.

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