Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve got the lowdown on the next 16 days for Tolcarne. Straight up, I’m gonna be honest with you – it’s a rough stretch. We’re looking at a long, painful gap with next to no surf for the first week and a half. The first sniff of anything rideable doesn’t pop up until Monday the 3rd of August, and even then it’s pretty ordinary. The whole period is mostly a write-off because the swell is tiny and the wind is messing things up.

So, from now until Monday the 3rd of August, it’s basically flat or junk. We’ve got a few days of onshore wind and swell under 2ft, which is just not worth paddling out for. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, making it messy.

Monday the 3rd of August is the first real sign of life. Monday morning, the wind drops to glassy – that’s a big positive. We’re looking at a 2ft swell from the WSW with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is weak at 80, so it’s not powerful, but it’s clean. The waves will be small and weak, but for a beginner-friendly spot like Tolcarne, it’s rideable. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The next standout, and honestly the best bet of the whole 16 days, is looking like Monday the 10th of August. That morning, we’ve got clear skies and a gentle offshore breeze from the SSE. The swell is 4ft from the north, with a period of 6 seconds. The energy is still modest at 98, but that offshore wind will make it clean and lined up. The crowd situation at Tolcarne is “often,” so expect company, but with clean 4ft waves and light offshore wind, it’ll be the best session on offer. The swell direction from the north isn’t the optimum for Tolcarne (which prefers W), but the clean conditions will make it work.

After that, Tuesday the 11th of August picks up a bit more size – 4ft to 4ft from the NW – but the wind swings to a moderate cross-shore, which will chop it up. The energy hits 109 (moderate), but it’s not as clean as Monday.

The rest of the week into the second week is a slow fade. The swell drops back to tiny, and the wind gets strong and onshore, with a fresh breeze coming in by the 12th. By the 14th and 15th of August, we’re looking at flat, windblown junk.

So, bottom line: don’t hold your breath. The first week is a write-off. The only real highlights are the glassy morning on Monday the 3rd of August for a tiny, clean beginner wave, and the standout morning on Monday the 10th of August with clean 4ft waves and offshore wind. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. It’s a long-range call, so it’s a bit less certain, but it’s the best shot we’ve got.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more