Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's talk about the Tolcarne forecast.

Alright, truth be told, the outlook for Tolcarne over the next two and a half weeks is a bit of a grind. We’re starting off with a stretch of poor conditions that lasts all the way through Sunday the 20th. The surf is up, with a 4ft to 7ft west swell running, and the wave energy is moderate to strong, hitting a peak of 946 on Wednesday morning. But the problem is the wind. That onshore and cross-onshore breeze is just ruining it, making for lumpy, choppy, and generally messy surf. It’s not a paddle surfer’s friend.

For the beginner crew, that 7ft day on Wednesday the 16th is going to be too much. And the 6ft days are on the outer edge of comfortable. The longer-period swells are around, but the wind just won't let them clean up. At this point, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than for a standard paddle session.

Now, the water temperature is sitting at 64°, which is a touch warmer than what we’d normally expect for this time of year, so you can get away with a slightly thinner suit.

The first real hint of a change comes Monday the 21st. The swell drops right back to a modest 3ft from the west, but the wind goes light and cross-offshore. The wave energy is weak (185), and the surf is only described as ordinary. It's a clean slate, but not much to get excited about.

The following morning, Tuesday the 22nd, sees a little more size with 3ft from the west, and it's still clean with light cross-off winds. The energy is still low to moderate at 246. The surf is still ordinary, but at least you can get a few clean ones. That glassy moment on Wednesday the 23rd morning with 3ft is a nice little window, but it's small.

The standout in this whole forecast is Thursday the 24th of September. We finally get some proper conditions lining up. The morning session sees a 4ft west swell, with a period of 11 seconds, hitting the coast under a light cross-offshore breeze from the southeast. The wave energy is moderate (284) and the forecast is expecting good surf conditions. It's the only day in the whole run that gets that nod. The afternoon is a little more marginal due to tide, but that Thursday morning is the one to mark in the calendar if you can get out. It's not huge, but it's the cleanest the place looks in a long time.

The final week of the month fades back into small, windy, or weak conditions, with the swell dropping to 1.0ft by the 27th and the energy falling right off. There's a late pulse on the 29th with a 3ft west-northwest swell and a very long period of 14 seconds, but with a 19 mph cross-offshore wind, it will be blown out and unrideable.

So, to sum it up: a long, poor run through the 20th, a few ordinary but clean days from the 21st to the 23rd, and then one proper shot on Thursday the 24th morning. Get on it if you can.

Rusty.

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