Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The only spot that’s worth talking about in this run is Tolcarne, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a long gap with hardly anything surfable, but right at the end, there’s a real standout that’s worth keeping an eye on.

To start, the water temperature is sitting about average for late August, so nothing unusual there. Tolcarne is a beginner-friendly, fairly consistent beach break, and it’s exposed to swells from the west, which is the optimum direction for it. The problem is, for the first week and a half, the surf is mostly poor. The swell is tiny, often under 3 ft, with short periods around 7 to 8 seconds, and the wind is mostly cross-off or cross-shore, which keeps things clean but unexciting. The combined energy is weak, generally under 100 (62) up to moderate around 132 on the 28th of August, but it’s still not enough to get excited about. There’s a bit of a bump on the 29th of August with swell hitting 6 ft to 8 ft, and energy climbing to 1133, but the wind goes strong cross-shore and messy, so it’s not clean. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

The run from the 30th of August through the 3rd of September is still weak, with swell hovering around 3 ft to 7 ft, but the wind is generally cross-off or cross, and the energy is moderate to strong (up to 682). Still, the surf quality is poor or marginal. Crowds are often an issue here, so you’ll have company even when it’s small.

Now, the real highlight comes on Monday the 7th of September. The morning shows a clean, cross-off wind with a solid 12 ft west swell at 10 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 2310 — that’s strong to very strong. It’s the best looking swell of the whole period, but here’s the catch: it’s predicted to be too big for this break. Tolcarne is a beginner spot, and anything over 8 ft is only good for experts. So if you’re an experienced surfer looking for a heavy session, this could be your window, but for most folks, it’ll be a watch-and-wait day. The afternoon is similar with 10 ft swell and 1775 energy, still clean but still too big for the average surfer.

After that, it drops back to small, weak conditions through the 10th of September. The only other slight glimmer is the 4th of September morning, when the wind goes glassy and the swell is 5 ft at 10 seconds, giving a clean, moderate energy session (463) — but that’s still a marginal call.

Bottom line: if you’re a beginner or intermediate, the best bet is to wait for the 4th of September morning for a glassy, clean session. If you’re an expert, the 7th of September is your standout, but it’s a big, powerful west swell that’ll be pumping. Everything else is mostly a write-off.

Rusty

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