Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and listen up. This is a tricky one, but I’ll give it to you straight.

The next 16 days are looking grim for Tolcarne. The water’s a touch warmer than the long-term average for this time of year, sitting at 65°F, but that’s about the only thing that’s comfortable. We’re looking at a long, long stretch of poor surf conditions, with a massive gap right at the start. There’s no surf worth mentioning from now until late on the 1st of September. After that, it’s a whole lot of nothing special until we get a tiny glimmer of something surfable right at the end of the forecast.

The main issue is the wind. For the first week, it’s mostly a fresh breeze from the SW or WNW, which is cross or cross-on, trashing any chance of a clean wave. The swell is there, sometimes pushing 6 ft to 10 ft, with moderate to strong energy (521 to 1403), but it’s completely ruined by the wind. The period is mostly short, around 8 seconds, which is weak and messy. It’s a real kicker.

Best of the Bunch (and it’s not saying much)
The only two windows that even look remotely surfable are the morning of the 12th of September and the afternoon of the 12th of September. Now, don’t get your hopes up, but it’s the best we’ve got.

On the 12th, Saturday morning, the wind is light and offshore from the SSE, with a 4 ft swell from the west. The energy is a moderate 230, and the period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s not going to be groundswell, but the offshore wind will make it clean. It’s still a “surfable but very ordinary” situation, so it’s for experienced surfers who just need a paddle. The crowd factor is a concern, as Tolcarne is often crowded, so you’ll have company.

The afternoon of the 12th is even more interesting for a glassy, clean session. The wind drops to almost nothing, a glassy condition from the WSW, with a 4 ft west swell. The energy is a low 184, and the period is 9 seconds. It’s small and weak, but glassy conditions are a major positive. It’s the only time in the entire 16 days you’ll see that word. If you’re a beginner, this is the only time you should even consider it, because anything over 5 ft is too big for you, and the 4 ft is just about right.

The Long, Dry Spell
From now until the 1st of September, there is zero surfable surf. The whole period from the 30th of August through the 11th of September is a write-off, a solid 13-day gap with no recommendations. The conditions are constantly “poor” with ratings of 0 out of 10. The wind is too strong or the angle is wrong. It’s a proper blank run.

The Latter Part
From the 1st of September onward, the swell drops off significantly. We’re talking 1 ft to 5 ft, with weak energy, often under 100 or 200. The wind is still messy, but it’s a little lighter. The 10th of September afternoon has a 5 ft swell from the WSW with a moderate breeze and clean conditions, but it’s still a 0/10 rating which tells you the quality is poor. The 12th of September is the only calendar date that stands out, but it’s more of a last resort than a standout.

The Kite Factor
Given the strong cross-shore winds and the beach setup, particularly on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th of September with 18-25 mph winds, this is looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The messy, lumpy conditions are a dream for a kite, but a nightmare for a surfer.

The Verdict
If you’re desperate, the 12th of September is your only shot. It’s small, clean, and glassy. For everything else, it’s a long wait. This is a hard one, but that’s how it goes sometimes.

Rusty

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