Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with the outlook for Tolcarne. Let's be straight up, it’s been a pretty grim run lately and for the next week or so, there's not a lot to get excited about.

The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year at 65°F, which is a nice bonus if you do get wet, but the surf just hasn't been cooperating.

Looking at the forecast, the first few days are a write-off. We're looking at tiny, weak swell with messy wind. Saturday the 22nd has a 2ft west swell but with a cross breeze and only 104 units of energy, it's not going to be worth paddling out. The whole weekend and into Monday the 24th stays small and mostly onshore or cross-offshore, but the swell is just too weak to do anything with. A fresh easterly on Monday morning will clean it up, but with only 0.7ft on the cards, it's flat.

Tuesday the 25th afternoon finally shows a pulse of life. The swell nudges up to 2ft from the west with a moderate offshore wind from the SSE and 88 units of energy. It’ll be clean, but it's tiny and the energy is weak. Wednesday the 26th is more of the same, with a bit more size in the afternoon but a short period of 7 seconds making for a jumbled, weak wave.

Thursday the 27th is where we get a real jump in size, but not in quality. The swell hits 5ft from the southwest with 387 units of energy, but it’s accompanied by a risk of thunderstorms and fresh cross-offshore wind. It’s going to be a bumpy, choppy mess and not a good call.

Friday the 28th sees the swell pump up to 7ft in the morning and 7ft in the afternoon from the west, with energy hitting 612 units. But the wind is howling onshore from the WNW, making it a total mess. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one. The weekend and start of next week are more of the same: decent sized swell, but the wind is all wrong, mostly cross-onshore or onshore, creating lumpy, ugly conditions.

Now, I’m not going to sugar-coat it – the entire first week is a bust. There is a gap of a good few days where you might as well stay home.

But hang on, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and it might be worth waiting for. We're looking at Thursday, September the 3rd. The early morning session at Tolcarne is shaping up as the standout of the whole forecast. The swell is a solid 6ft from the west, packing 414 units of energy, with a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the southwest. That's clean, surfable conditions with enough size to get some proper turns in. The period is 8 seconds, so it won't be a groundswell with long waits, but it’ll be a fun, punchy little swell. This is the one to aim for. The afternoon gets messy again with a cross-breeze, so get it early.

Later on, Saturday the 5th of September morning brings another decent swell – 6ft from the WNW with a very long period of 11 seconds and 705 units of energy. The wind is a cross-offshore, so it'll be clean. However, that long period means it's better suited to a point or reef break than a beach break like Tolcarne, as it can make the waves stand up too quickly. It’s a promising option, but less certain that far out.

So, in short: the next week is a dud. The real highlight is the morning of Thursday, September 3rd. Mark it in the diary.

Rusty.

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