Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this forecast for Tolcarne is a tough one to call. We’re looking at a 16-day window starting July 30, but honestly, there’s a whole lot of nothing on offer for the first stretch. The water is sitting at about 65°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only bright spot for a while.

We’re looking at a dry spell that runs from the start, right through the first week of August and into the second. You’ll see small, weak swells – mostly under 3 ft – with combined energy readings barely cracking 60 (weak energy). The wind is a mess, too. Onshore and cross-onshore breezes from the north and northwest are going to chop up what little wave there is. There are a few moments of clean conditions, like Sunday the 2nd morning with a light offshore, but with a 2 ft swell from the west, it’s barely a ripple. I wouldn’t bother paddling out for that.

It’s not until about Wednesday the 12th of August that we see any real change. The swell starts to build, getting up to 4 ft to 4 ft on the afternoon of the 12th, with the combined energy finally hitting triple digits at 104 (moderate energy). That’s something to talk about. But it’s not perfect. The wind is a strong onshore to cross-onshore from the northwest, so it’s going to be choppy and hard to manage. That 4 ft swell is still manageable for most, but it’s not going to be clean.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is Thursday the 13th. The morning is clean with a light offshore wind, but the swell drops back to 1 ft. The afternoon is a total write-off with a tiny 1 ft, short-period wind swell from the north. The best bet in this whole outlook is probably the late afternoon of Saturday the 12th. That 4 ft swell from the west-northwest (104 combined energy) is the biggest we see, but it’s not good. It’s a short period (6 seconds) and choppy. For a beginner break like Tolcarne, that’s a bit of a messy push. It’s not a day for a learner, and the conditions just aren’t friendly for a proper session.

To be honest, this is a quiet period. The waves are small, the wind is wrong, and there’s no real standout day. If you’re desperate, the 12th is the only one with a bit of size, but you’ll be battling the wind. Otherwise, sit this one out. The forecasts can change, but as it stands, there’s not much to get excited about.

Rusty.

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