Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. Right now, it’s looking pretty grim for Tolcarne. Don’t get your hopes up for the next several days because we’ve got a long stretch of poor surf conditions ahead. The first solid recommendation doesn’t pop up until Thursday the 31st of August, and even that’s a tricky one. Before that, it’s a big blank—nothing but flat, weak, or blown-out waves for over a week.

Let’s start with the lead-up. From Thursday the 20th of August right through to Wednesday the 26th, it’s all poor surf. You’ll see swell heights around 0.7ft to 7ft, but the wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore, making everything lumpy and choppy. The combined energy is weak to moderate at best, with values like 718 (moderate) dropping down to 18 (weak) by the 25th. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

Things start to get interesting on Wednesday the 26th of August afternoon. We get a 4ft swell from the west with a short 7-second period, but the wind goes offshore from the south at 15 mph, cleaning things up. The combined energy climbs to 281 (moderate), but it’s still only marginal—surfable but nothing to write home about.

The real standout in the whole forecast is Thursday the 31st of August morning. Tolcarne gets a 10ft swell from the west with an 11-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 2446 (very strong). This is a powerful groundswell, but here’s the catch: it’s likely too big for this break. The wind is cross-shore from the west-southwest at 19 mph, so it’s not clean, and the wave comment says it’s wind and tide favorable, but the swell is just too big. This is strictly for experts only—if you’re a beginner, stay well clear. The southeast orientation of Tolcarne means it’s fairly exposed to this west swell, but that short period and strong cross-shore wind will make it messy. This is a big, lumpy, powerful day, and only the most experienced should even think about paddling out.

After that, things settle back down into poor surf for the rest of the forecast into early September, with small, weak swells and onshore winds.

So, bottom line: if you’re an expert, keep an eye on the morning of Thursday the 31st of August—it’s your only shot at something serious, but it’s a beast. For everyone else, you’re better off waiting for a cleaner, smaller day later in September.

Rusty.

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