Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Tolcarne has in store for us. It's a bit of a slow-burner this forecast period, with a lot of average days to wade through before we see anything worth getting properly excited about.

The first week and a half is pretty much a write-off. We're looking at a solid run of poor surf from Tuesday the 18th right through to Monday the 24th. The swell is mostly weak, with energy levels often sitting in the low two and three-digit figures, meaning there's just not enough push. On top of that, the wind is a real problem – mostly cross-onshore and choppy. Thursday the 20th does see a spike in size to 7ft from the WNW, but the cross-onshore wind and moderate wave energy (702) make it a messy one. Even the odd clean session, like Saturday morning the 22nd, only has a dribbly 2ft swell. It's a frustrating stretch for a wave.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday the 25th of August. The southerly wind swings offshore, and we finally get clean conditions with a 4ft to 5ft swell. The energy jumps to a moderate 338, and with a 10-second period, it should have a bit more shape than the slop we've been seeing. It's only a marginal call, so keep the expectations tempered, but it's the first time the wind is truly your friend. The offshore flow hangs in there for the morning of Friday the 28th too, but the swell drops right back to 3ft, making it very ordinary.

Now, if you’ve got some patience, the real standout is lurking almost two weeks out. Keep your eye on Tuesday the 1st of September. After a morning of big, clean 8ft surf, the afternoon turns on the style. We're looking at a solid 8ft swell from the west with a 10-second period, and the wind goes clean offshore from the SSE. The energy reading hits a massive 1115, which is strong. This is the session to circle on the calendar, but it's a long-range call, so treat it as a promising possibility rather than a guarantee. The following morning, Wednesday the 2nd, still has that big 8ft size, but the wind swings onshore, so that one’s a no-go.

To wrap it up, the best bet in this 16-day window is undoubtedly the afternoon of Tuesday the 1st of September. The combination of a solid 8ft west swell, clean offshore wind, and 10-second period points to some proper, lined-up waves. Expect crowds to be likely at Tolcarne if that one fires, as it’s a fairly consistent spot. The 5ft swell on Tuesday the 25th with the offshore wind is the only other thing that might be worth a paddle on a smaller board.

This is Rusty, signing off.

Read more