Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me tell you what I’m seeing for Tolcarne over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a bit of a rough start. We’ve got a real dry spell on our hands.

The first few days are a write-off. Wednesday the 19th to Sunday the 23rd of August? Forget it. Swell is tiny to non-existent, and the wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, chopping everything up. The energy is weak, barely registering. It’s just not worth paddling out for.

We stay in the doldrums through Monday the 24th, Tuesday the 25th, and Wednesday the 26th. The swell tries to pick up a little on Tuesday afternoon, hitting 5ft from the WSW with a combined energy of 444, but the wind is cross-shore and the report calls it marginal. Not really a goer.

Then, finally, we get a little window. Thursday morning the 27th of August. That’s the one that’s got my attention. The swell is solid at 7ft, coming from the WNW with a decent 11-second period. The wind is light and cross-offshore, and the report says "expect very good surf conditions." The combined energy is a strong 954. This is a proper groundswell, and while it’s big enough that beginners might find it a handful, for the experienced crew, that’s a standout morning. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

After that, it's a bit of a mixed bag. Friday the 28th and Saturday the 29th see the swell drop back down, though Saturday morning we get a moment of absolute glass – 4ft from the WSW, with a 1 out of 10 score but described as "glassy." The energy is 226. That’s a quiet, clean session for someone who just wants to be out there.

The first week of September is a total monster. From Sunday the 30th of August right through to Wednesday the 2nd of September, the swell is big, real big. 8ft, 8ft, then 13ft on Monday the 31st. The combined energy skyrockets, hitting 3657 on Monday afternoon. That’s serious, heavy power. But here’s the catch – the wind is howling onshore or cross-onshore, so it’s going to be a maelstrom. That kind of size and that wind makes it more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. Only for the absolute die-hards.

Thursday the 3rd of September still has a solid 6ft swell from the W, but the wind is a strong cross-offshore, which keeps it clean. The energy is 583. It’s a better bet than the days before, but still a big, powerful ocean.

So, if you’re waiting for a clean, big swell, pencil in the morning of Thursday the 27th of August. That’s your best bet. The rest of the time, you’re either scratching for tiny waves or getting blown off the water.

Rusty

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