Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Tolcarne over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m a bit gutted to say this, but the next 16 days are looking pretty rough for Tolcarne. There’s a big fat gap at the start with no real surf to get excited about. The first few days – from the 1st of August right through to the 5th – are all tiny, weak, and messy. We’re talking about knee-high slop at best, with a combined energy barely ticking over at 47 (47) on the Saturday afternoon, and it only gets weaker from there. The wind is all over the place, mostly cross or onshore, and the water is sitting at 65°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only nice thing I can say.

The first little glimmer of something surfable doesn’t show up until Monday morning, the 3rd of August. The swell bumps up to 3ft from the WSW, with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy hits 103 (103). The wind is a light cross-off from the SSW, so the waves will be clean. But it’s still very ordinary – barely a ripple worth paddling for. If you’re a beginner and you’re desperate, you could get wet, but I wouldn’t bother.

Then we get a proper blank run. From the 4th to the 11th of August, it’s just awful. The wind pipes up from the SW and W, gusting 19 mph, and the swell gets bigger but it’s all short-period junk. By the 5th, we’ve got 6ft of stormy slop, but the period is only 7 seconds and the combined energy is 317 (317) – decent energy, but it’s a complete mess with fresh cross-onshore winds. That’s more of a kitesurfing setup than a paddle surf one. The waves are lumpy, choppy, and just no fun at all. This continues through to the 11th, with tiny waves and poor conditions.

The next potential standout, if you can call it that, is on Wednesday the 12th of August. The swell picks up again to 4ft from the WSW, with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is 231 (231). But again, the wind is cross-onshore from the WNW at 6 mph, so it’s going to be a bit bumpy. It’s surfable, but only just.

The best chance you’ll get in this whole outlook is Thursday morning, the 13th of August. It’s not a big swell – only 4ft from the WSW at 8 seconds – but the wind is glassy. Dead flat, no wind, absolutely clean. The combined energy is 167 (167), so it’s moderate. For a break like Tolcarne, which is a beginner-friendly spot and fairly exposed, glassy conditions are a major positive. The waves will be small and clean, perfect for a longboard or a foamie. The swell direction is WSW, which is close to the optimum W direction for this break, so it’ll line up nicely. Just keep in mind it’s a fairly consistent spot, so it’s not a one-hit wonder. Crowds are often an issue here, so expect company.

After that, it goes downhill again. The 14th and 15th are back to messy cross-onshore winds with bigger, lumpier swell. By the 16th of August, we’ve got a solid 7ft to 8ft groundswell from the WNW, with a period of 8 seconds and combined energy of 526 (526) to 639 (639) – that’s strong, no doubt. But the wind is cross-onshore and cross-shore, and the swell is too big and too straight for a beach break like this. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’ll be a washing machine. Not recommended.

So, to sum it up: the only real standout is Thursday morning, the 13th of August. It’s not gonna be epic, but it’s the cleanest, most surfable wave in this whole 16-day stretch. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or too messy. This is a tough run for Tolcarne, but forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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