Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s lined up for Tolcarne over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – this is a tough stretch. The forecast is showing a real lack of quality surf, so we’re going to have to be patient or look elsewhere for a wave.

The immediate outlook is rough. The wind is all over the place, mostly from the west and northwest, keeping things messy with a cross-shore or cross-onshore chop. The swell is there, but it’s ugly. We’ve got a solid 5ft to 7ft of swell running through the 3rd and 4th, but it’s only 8 seconds of period and the wind is killing it. The combined energy is moderate at best, but the conditions are just poor. It’s a no-go.

We hit a bit of a lull heading into the 6th and 7th of September. The swell drops right off, with waves barely 2ft, and what little energy there is isn’t worth paddling out for. The wind goes offshore on the 6th, but with no swell, it’s a tease.

Then, from the 7th to the 11th, the swell bumps back up, but it’s just more of the same: lumpy, cross-onshore slop. The 7th morning sees a 8ft, 13-second period groundswell from the west, which is a real dose of energy, but the wind is from the northwest at 30 km/h, making it a mess. That’s expert-only size and condition, and it’s not clean. Not worth the hassle.

Now, the one real standout in this whole period is Saturday the 12th of September. The morning looks like a proper window. The swell is 6ft from the west-northwest, with a period of 7 seconds, but the real story is the wind. A light breeze from the southwest will be cross-offshore, and the forecast says it’s clean. The combined energy is moderate. This is the best bet for a wave that’s not a total battle. It’s a beginner-friendly size, but you’ll still want your wits about you. The crowds at Tolcarne can be a problem, especially on a weekend with a bit of sun. Expect it to be busy.

Beyond that, the 15th of September has a moment. Tuesday morning looks glassy with a 4ft, 9-second swell from the west. The energy is moderate and the wind is dead calm. It’s not a big wave, but it will be clean and fun for a longboard or a foiler. The afternoon turns a bit cross-on, so get out early.

The rest of the second week is a write-off. The swell fades away to nothing, with tiny waves and onshore winds returning. The 16th has glassy conditions but only 3ft of swell – it’s surfable but very ordinary.

So, to sum it up: the water temperature is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting around 64°F. The pick of the lot is the morning of Saturday the 12th of September – that’s your best chance for a decent, clean session. The 15th morning is a distant second, a glassy knee-to-waist high option. Don’t hold your breath for anything else.

Rusty.

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