Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break down what’s going on at Tolcarne for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a rough stretch. For the first week and a half, the surf is mostly tiny, wonky, or blown out. There’s nothing worth paddling out for until the last week of July, and even then, it’s either too big or just average. The first real standout shows up on Thursday the 30th, and that one’s only for the pros.

From Friday the 17th all the way through to Tuesday the 28th, it’s a long run of poor conditions. Small waves, mostly under 3 feet, with onshore and cross-onshore winds. The periods are short too, mostly 5–8 seconds, so the waves are weak and crumbly. Even the few cleaner moments—like Sunday morning the 19th and Tuesday morning the 21st—are just too small to get excited about. The water temp is about 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

The first real sign of life hits Sunday the 26th afternoon, with glassy 4-foot swell from the west at 6 seconds. Conditions are clean, but the surf is still pretty ordinary, and the wave energy is weak. Not a standout.

Then Monday the 27th brings a jump in size: 5 to 6 feet of west swell, with moderate energy. But the wind turns cross and onshore, so it’s messy and lumpy.

Wednesday the 29th gets big and ugly. Morning sees 7 feet from the northwest at 7 seconds, and by the afternoon it’s a thumping 13 feet from the west with a period of 10 seconds and massive energy. The wind is onshore at 15 mph, so it’s a washing machine. Only for the hardcore.

Now, Thursday the 30th is the real standout for this whole forecast. Morning brings a 13-foot swell from the west-northwest, period at 10 seconds, and energy through the roof. The wind is light cross-on from the north-northeast at 6 mph, so the surface will be pretty clean for such a big swell. The wind and tide are favourable, but this wave is simply too big for Tolcarne—this is expert-only territory. Afternoon drops a bit to 12 feet, still huge, with energy still massive. If you’re a seasoned charger who knows this break, this could be your window, but don’t take it lightly.

Friday the 31st is your best bet if you want something big but a bit more manageable. Morning sees 8 feet from the west-northwest at 8 seconds with solid energy, and clean conditions thanks to a light cross-offshore breeze from the east-northeast. That’s a solid surf day for experienced surfers. The afternoon gets smaller and less clean, so get it early.

After that, the first of August gives us a drop back to 4 feet, but with fresh cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions, it’s back to poor surf.

So, if you’re patient, the best windows are Thursday the 30th for the big-wave crew, and Friday the 31st morning for a slightly smaller but still solid session. Otherwise, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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