Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on the menu for the next couple of weeks at Tolcarne. It's a bit of a mixed bag, so let's break it down.

We're starting off pretty rough. The next several days are looking grim, with onshore winds and messy conditions making it a real struggle. The water is notably warm for the time of year, sitting at 65°, which is 4° above the norm – feels like a warm bath but the surf just isn't playing ball.

Wednesday morning the 9th sees a 5ft swell from the west, but it's pinned under a strong northwesterly wind, so it's going to be a blown-out mess. Through Thursday, the wind swings cross-off, but the quality is still poor. Friday and Saturday don't offer any real relief either, with the swell staying small or getting chopped up. The combined wave energy sits in the moderate range around 220 to 380 (moderate wave energy), but it's all wasted with the wind.

We get a brief flicker of hope on Sunday morning the 13th. The swell pushes to 5ft from the west with a solid 10-second period, and we have light cross-shore winds. The energy is building to 450 (moderate wave energy), and the conditions are described as "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions". It's worth a look if you're desperate, but it's not going to be a standout. The wind stays light for the afternoon, but it's cross-shore.

The following week is a real lesson in patience. Monday the 14th has a little 3ft swell with clean cross-off winds, but the energy is weak at 141 (weak wave energy). Tuesday the 15th sees a lovely offshore wind from the southeast, cleaning up a 2ft to 4ft west swell with a long period of 11 seconds. The energy is 173 to 256 (moderate wave energy). This is a classic "glass-off" low-tide window for the advanced guys on the right board, but for most of us, it's just surfable.

Then we get a serious reality check. Wednesday the 16th brings a massive 10ft swell from the WNW, a period of 8 seconds, but it's pinned under a howling 25 mph north wind. The combined energy is a massive 1476 (strong to very strong wave energy). This isn't paddle surfing; this is for the kite crew only. The same goes for Thursday morning the 17th with a 5ft swell and another 16 mph onshore wind. A huge let-down of energy.

After that, it fades into small, onshore slop until we hit a potential standout. The end of the forecast window, on Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th, starts to look pretty promising. The swell sits around 3ft to 4ft from the west, with a nice 11-second period. On the 23rd morning we have light cross-off winds and a clean forecast, with energy at 388 (moderate wave energy). Then on the 24th morning, we get a proper offshore wind from the SSE! That's going to groom the 3ft west swell into clean, peeling lines. The energy is 290 (moderate wave energy). This, right here, is the best bet of the whole outlook.

So, to sum it up: the next week is mostly a write-off, with only a few tiny windows for the dedicated. The real highlight is that last Wednesday and Thursday. For the standout, I’d say Thursday the 24th morning at Tolcarne. The swell direction from the west is right on the money for the optimum, the offshore wind will make it glassy, and the 11-second period will give it some proper shape. It's a beginner-friendly spot that's fairly consistent, so even though it's small, that clean setup should be fun for everyone. It's a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but that's the one I'm circling on the calendar.

Rusty.

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