Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Well, folks, it's Rusty here, and I've got to be straight with you – this outlook for Tolcarne is a tough one to write. We're looking at a long stretch of pretty ordinary conditions ahead. The water is sitting at 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that's about the only positive I can find.

Right off the bat, Friday afternoon the 17th has a tiny 1ft W swell, but with a 12 mph N wind blowing on it, it's a no-go. The energy is weak (27), and the conditions are just poor.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are more of the same. We see some size on Saturday afternoon, a 4ft from the NNW, but the period is a short 5 seconds and the wind is howling from the north at 19 mph. It’s just messy. The combined swell energy creeps up to a moderate 94, but it doesn't matter with that wind. Sunday keeps the poor surf pattern going, even with a brief offshore breeze from the ESE in the morning, the swell is only 2ft and weak.

The entire first week is a write-off. From Monday the 20th through to Sunday the 27th, every single check shows "poor surf conditions." There's a big jump in energy on Monday the 27th, with a 7ft WNW swell and an energy of 397 (strong), and by the afternoon it's 7ft with an energy of 514 (very strong). But here's the kicker – the wind is cross-onshore from the NW, and with a period of only 7 to 8 seconds, it's going to be a closed-out, choppy mess. Definitely one for the experts only, and honestly, with the wind and short period, it might be more interesting for the kite surfers than anyone on a paddleboard.

As we push into the second week, there’s no real turnaround. Tuesday the 28th still has some size, with a 6ft WNW swell and strong energy (395), but the onshore wind from the NNW is not doing it any favours. The surf is there, but it's not clean. The rest of the week sees the size drop back down, and the onshore wind pattern just continues.

We even have a long-period 13-second swell on Friday the 24th, but it's a tiny less-than-1ft swell from the southwest. A whisper, not a wave.

Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day run, there isn't a single standout session. The winds are persistently onshore or cross-onshore, the swell periods are mostly short, and the conditions are consistently rated as poor. It's one of those bleak stretches where you'd be better off checking the forecast again in a few days, hoping it changes. For now, the boards stay in the bag.

Rusty.

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