Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gutted, folks. I’ve been staring at the charts for Tolcarne for the next couple of weeks, and honestly, it’s a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing doing before anything even gets close to worth the paddle out.

The whole window starts off pretty grim. From Thursday the 6th right through to the morning of Friday the 14th, it’s a wasteland. We’re looking at weak, short-period slop, mostly under 3ft, with a lot of onshore and cross-onshore breezes messing up what little there is. The water’s a touch warmer than average for this time of year at 66°F, but that’s about the only positive. The combined energy is weak, sitting in the low double digits for most of that time. There’s a day or two where it goes glassy, like Saturday the 8th and Tuesday the 11th, but the swell is just too tiny, around 0.7ft to 1ft, to even bother with. It’s a real test of patience.

Finally, on the morning of Friday the 14th, we get a slight reprieve. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore, and the ocean cleans up. The swell is still pretty average, around 3ft from the west with a 9-second period, but the combined energy is a bit more respectable. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. That’s the best we get for a while, and it’s not saying much. The afternoon blows out, and the weekend is a complete loss with strong northerly winds and building, but messy, swell.

The real drama kicks off on the morning of Sunday the 16th. The wind drops to glassy, and the swell bumps up to a solid 5ft from the west with an 8-second period. The combined energy jumps to 294, which is the first time we’ve seen any real power. The forecast notes say to expect good surf conditions. This is the standout of the first week, but it’s fleeting. The afternoon onshore wind kills it, and Monday is a complete washout with 30 km/h cross-shore winds and lumpy, horrible conditions.

After that, the ocean goes quiet again for a few days, with small, short-period junk and fresh breezes. It’s not until the morning of Wednesday the 19th that things get properly interesting. The swell jumps to 8ft, and the energy surges to 671. The wind is a cross-offshore, which keeps it clean, but there’s a caveat. The period is only 8 seconds, and at 8ft, this is getting solid. It’s honestly only for the better surfers out there. The morning of Thursday the 20th is similar, with 8ft and even more energy, but the wind turns cross-on, making it a choppy mess for the afternoon. Still, that Wednesday morning is the other potential highlight, as long as you know what you’re doing.

But here’s the thing, and this is the biggest kicker: the forecast for this spot is consistently poor. The finder data shows that every single period is rated as either “poor surf conditions” or “marginal.” The only exceptions are that one morning on the 14th and the glassy morning on the 16th. For a beach break like Tolcarne, this long period of weak, short-period swell and bad wind is a proper blank run. It tends not to stay this bad for long, and forecasts can change, but right now, if you’re looking to get wet, you might be better off checking if the kites are flying instead of waxing up the shortboard. The setup is going to be more interesting for them than for us paddle surfers for most of this stretch.

Rusty.

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