Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at the Tolcarne picture for the next couple of weeks. I’m Rusty, and I’ll tell you straight.

The forecast is a bit of a tough one. Honestly, for the first week and a half, there’s not a single window I’d get excited about. The wind is all over the place, mostly cross, cross-on, or onshore, and the swell is often messy. You’re looking at a long gap of pretty ordinary conditions until we get a slight glimmer later on.

Let’s start with the first real recommendation. It’s not a standout, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. On Saturday morning, 13th September, we’ve got a small window. The swell is a weak 2 ft from the west, with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy is a feeble 104 (weak energy). The wind is a gentle offshore from the SSE, giving us clean conditions. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 64 °F. It’s not big, it’s not powerful, but it’s clean. That’s about as good as it gets for the whole period.

The rest of the 16 days is a write-off. Most of the time the swell is too small, too wind-affected, or the wind is just wrong. We get a few bigger pulses – like Monday morning, 7th September, with a 8 ft west swell at 13 seconds and a combined energy of 1783 (strong wave energy) – but the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 16 mph, creating chop. That’s a kite surfing setup, not a paddle surfing one. The same story repeats a few times: a bit of size, but wind-ruined.

For a beginner-friendly spot like Tolcarne, the bigger swells (over 5 ft) are already pushing it, and the 8 ft day is definitely too big for learners. The long period on that one (13 seconds) would mean the waves have more energy and longer gaps, but the cross-onshore wind just kills any quality.

After the 13th, it goes flat. The last few days are tiny, mostly below 2 ft, with hardly any energy. The 19th of September shows a 0.3 ft swell from the southwest with a period of 16 seconds, but it’s practically nothing.

So, the only honest call here is: Saturday morning, 13th September, for some clean, small surf at Tolcarne. The rest of the 16 days, you’re better off waiting or finding another spot.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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