Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the Tolcarne forecast over the next couple of weeks, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough stretch for paddle surfing. The whole 16-day window is going to be a grind with only a brief, very late glimmer of hope.

Right now, starting with Thursday the 27th of August, the water temp is sitting at a noticeable 65°, which is a touch warmer than what’s normal for this time of year. But that’s about the only good news. The swell is tiny at 1 ft from the west, but it’s completely blown out by a cross-offshore breeze, leaving poor surf conditions. You’re looking at combined swell energy of just 33, which tells you there’s nothing in the water.

Through the end of August and into the first week of September, it’s more of the same story. Swell does build – by Friday the 28th we see 5 ft from the WSW, and by Saturday the 29th that swell jumps to 6 ft, but the winds are howling. Saturday morning there’s a near gale from the southwest at 31 mph, and by the afternoon it’s 10 ft of swell with a staggering combined energy of 1592, but with a strong cross-shore wind making the ocean a mess. You’d be better off rigging a kite than paddling out. This pattern of strong winds and lumpy, choppy conditions carries right through until roughly the 4th of September. A few days around the 30th and 1st have clean-looking conditions on paper, but the swell direction (WSW to W) is cross-onshore or just messy, and the reports keep calling it poor.

Then, we hit a bit of a gap. From around the 2nd of September, the swell drops right back down to under 3 ft with weak energy (97), and the wind remains a problem. That sets the tone for a long, flat, and grotty run all the way through to the middle of the month, with almost nothing rideable.

The only true standout, and it’s the one ray of light in this whole forecast, lands on Saturday the 5th of September. The morning shows 5 ft swell from the west with a 11-second period – that’s some proper groundswell energy coming through, with a combined energy of 521, so it's got power. And here’s the kicker: the wind swings around to a light easterly at just 3 mph, which is a clean, glassy breeze. The break quality at Tolcarne is usually fair for a beginner spot, and this is as clean as it gets. However, by the afternoon, that same swell pumps up to 10 ft from the WSW with a combined energy of 1186. That’s serious size – way too big for beginners and really only for experts. The wind is offshore and light, but the sheer volume of water makes it tricky. So, Saturday morning is the pick for a wave, but the afternoon is heavy.

After that brief moment, it’s back to the doldrums. Sunday the 6th has some 7 ft swell but the wind is back onshore, and then the last week of the forecast sees the swell fade to under 3 ft with weak energy and onshore winds. It’s a long, poor outlook, but if you’re keen, save all your energy for that Saturday morning, September 5th. It’s the only window worth paddling for.

- Rusty

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