Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into the outlook for Tolcarne. We’ve got a long 16-day window ahead, but honestly, for the next week and a half or so, you might as well leave the board in the car.

The pattern starts off flat and pretty ordinary. From Sunday the 23rd through to Tuesday the 3rd of September, it’s a real struggle. For over a week, the swell is tiny, mostly around 0.7ft to 1ft, and the wave energy is weak, barely hitting three digits on the dial. There’s a few mornings with light offshore or cross-off breezes that might keep the water clean, but with that little swell, it’s just not worth paddling out. Even when the wind goes offshore, like on Tuesday the 25th afternoon and Wednesday the 26th morning, the waves are too short-period and small to do anything with. You’d be floating out there.

We do finally see a pulse of energy coming through on Thursday the 27th. The swell bumps up to about 4ft in the morning from the southwest, with a moderate combined energy (174). By the afternoon it’s 5ft and the energy jumps to 378, meaning there’s a bit more push in the water. The wind is light and cross-off, keeping things reasonably clean. But the period is short at around 7-9 seconds, so the waves won’t have a ton of shape – better for a beachie, but not much to write home about. Still, it’s the first surfable wave in the whole run. Not a standout, just a relief.

The story really changes when we get to Friday the 4th of September. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The overnight swell builds in, and by Friday morning Tolcarne is looking at 8ft swell from the west, with a combined energy of 1223 – that’s strong, meaty power. The wind is a moderate cross-off from the south-southwest, which should keep things clean. The period is 10 seconds, so it’s got good energy and reasonable shape. This is the first real standout of the period. Keep in mind, 8ft is getting up there, so it’s likely one for the experienced surfers only. The crowd factor can be heavy here, but for waves like that, it figures.

Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th keep that west swell going strong, still around 7ft to 8ft, with solid energy readings in the 700 to 960 range. The wind stays cross-off, so the waves should still be clean. It’s not quite the peak of Friday, but a solid run over that weekend. On Sunday afternoon it turns more cross-shore and gets lumpy, so you want to be out there in the mornings.

Then on Monday the 7th of September, you’re going to see a massive jump in size. The swell hits 12ft from the west, and the combined energy is off the charts at over 2600. But before you get too excited, the wind is a nightmare – strong cross-onshore, blowing 28-31 mph, turning the ocean into a complete mess. That’s blown-out, dangerous conditions. This setup looks far more interesting for the kite crowd than anyone with a paddle. Experienced chargers only, and even then, it’s a tough call.

Water temp this week at Tolcarne is about 65°, which is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year. Nice, but won’t keep you too warm when you’re waiting for sets.

So the big takeaway: Friday the 4th of September is the absolute best on offer – solid 8ft west swell, clean cross-off wind, and strong energy. Get on it early. The run over that weekend is good too. The rest is mostly flat or blown out. That’s how I see it from here.

Rusty.

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