Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next 16 days are a bit of a write-off for Tolcarne. We’ve got a long stretch of small, messy, and mostly unrideable surf ahead, so don’t be in a rush to paddle out.

The first recommendation—and honestly, the only real glimmer in this whole outlook—is late on Thursday the 23rd of July. The swell is tiny at 3 ft from the NNW, but the wind goes glassy that morning, which is a rare treat. The water temperature is sitting at 65°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so you won’t be frozen. The combined swell energy is very weak (76), so expect small, soft waves. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, and it’s fairly consistent, but you’ll be sharing it with a crowd—it’s often busy here. The optimum swell direction is W, and this small pulse is from the NNW, so it’s a bit off-angle, but with glassy conditions, it’ll be the cleanest you’ll see all week. Still, the surf quality is poor, so don’t expect much.

After that, we hit a gap. The next few days are rubbish. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th bring onshore winds and bigger, bumpy swell—up to 5 ft on Sunday morning—but it’s all wind-affected and messy. The combined energy hits 156 on Sunday, which is moderate, but with fresh onshore winds, it’s a battle. The swell period is short (6 seconds), so it’s just wind chop. Not worth it.

Then, from Monday the 27th into Tuesday the 28th, the swell picks up a bit more—4 ft from the NW on Monday morning, with a moderate combined energy of 252. But the wind is still onshore, and the period is short (8 seconds), so it’s lumpy and poor. By Tuesday afternoon, it’s fading fast.

There’s another small window around Wednesday the 29th, with a glassy morning and 2 ft from the W, but the energy is tiny (43). Again, poor surf quality. The cleanest conditions actually show up on Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st, with cross-offshore winds and 2 ft swell from the W, but the wave height is so small you’ll be bobbing around. Combined energy is 43–45, so it’s barely there.

The first week of August brings a bit more activity—Sunday the 2nd has clean cross-off winds and 2 ft from the WNW, but the period is short (5 seconds) and the energy is weak (27–30). Monday the 3rd sees a jump to 4 ft from the WNW, with moderate energy (123), but it’s fresh cross-onshore and lumpy. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

So, the takeaway? Thursday the 23rd morning is your best bet, and it’s still a long shot. The rest is a long, quiet stretch. Tolcarne is fairly consistent, so it’s a bit unusual to see such a blank run, but forecasts can change. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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