Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me level with you, surfers. Rusty here. Between your ears and my keyboard, I’m staring at 16 days of forecast for Tolcarne and, truth be told, it’s a long, slow grind. There’s a big fat blank at the start until late in the first week, and even then, nothing really lights the fire until the second week, and that comes with a rugged onshore catch. But let's walk through it.

We kick off Sunday the 19th of July with a tiny, short-period windswell: 2.6 ft from the NNW, period of just 6 seconds. The morning has a gentle offshore breeze from the SSE, which sounds clean on paper, but the combined energy is a weak 48, and the wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. That sets the tone for almost a full week. Monday the 20th through Thursday the 23rd is a dead zone. The swell hovers between 1.0 ft and 3.3 ft, almost all cross-onshore or onshore winds (N, NNE, N), and periods stuck at 5 or 6 seconds. The combined energy tops out at a mediocre 84. It’s a week of small, choppy windswill. Honestly, not worth paddling out for unless you’re just trying to get some vitamin D. If you’re a beginner wanting a push, the 1.3 ft to 2.0 ft days are rideable with the right foamie, but the bump from the wind will spoil it. There’s no standout here.

Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th are truly flat—we’re talking 0.3 ft to 1.0 ft. Nada.

Now, Sunday the 26th of July brings a pulse: 3.0 ft to 3.9 ft from the W, period 6 seconds. But that’s paired with a fresh cross-onshore from the W at 19 mph. The combined energy climbs to 120 in the afternoon, but it’s a lumpy, fresh mess. This pattern holds through Monday the 27th: 2.3 ft to 3.9 ft W swell, cross-onshore NW or WNW winds, moderate to fresh breeze. Choppy and lumpy. The combined energy spikes to 231 Monday afternoon, but with the wind direction, Tolcarne is a beach break, and those 9-second waves will break straight and close out. Not a recommended session for paddle surfing; with that cross-onshore wind and increasing size, this setup honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddling.

Here’s the real stand-out window: Tuesday the 28th of July. Tuesday morning delivers the biggest legitimate swell of the whole forecast: 6.2 ft from the N with a period of 7 seconds. The wind is directly onshore from the NNW at a gentle 9 mph. It’s not howling, but it’s blowing straight into the face. The combined energy is a meaty 684. This is a punchy, powerful swell. For experts, it’s on the border of too big for beginners (over 5 ft). The 7-second period means it’s short-period windswell, fast sections, a bit crumbly. But with that energy, it might hold some workable peaks for the strong paddler. Tuesday afternoon drops to 6.6 ft and slightly cross-onshore. If you’re an intermediate or above, Tuesday morning is the only shot at some proper juice, but don’t expect glassy perfection. That onshore breeze will put a rip in the surface.

After Tuesday, Wednesday the 29th through Thursday the 30th drops off to 2.3 ft of W swell again, cross-onshore winds, combined energy falling to 75, so back to the quiet life.

Then from Friday the 31st of July into the first few days of August, we get another uptick. Friday morning shows 3.0 ft from the WNW with a cross-offshore ESE breeze blowing 22 mph. That’s a clean offshore—very rare in this forecast—but the period is 6 seconds, combined energy only 98. It’s clean but tiny, a spring-suited day for a longboard or a funshape. Friday afternoon sees 3.6 ft, still cross-offshore clean (ESE at 28 mph, strong breeze), combined energy 136, period still short. It’ll be blown-out clean but backed-off. Not a true standout because the swell lacks length.

Saturday the 1st of August and Sunday the 2nd of August have moderate energy (173 to 227 combined), but the winds are cross-shore or cross-from the WSW, creating fresh cross-chop. The swell is 3.3 ft to 4.6 ft W swell, periods 7 to 9 seconds. The short period plus lumpy wind makes it messy. Not a true standout for quality.

Monday the 3rd of August brings another slight clean-up: 2.6 ft from the W, period 8 seconds, cross-offshore from the SW at 16 mph, combined energy 86. Clean, but very small.

The absolute best, the true standout of the whole outlook, is Tuesday the 28th of July morning at Tolcarne. That 6.2 ft of N swell packing 684 combined energy is the biggest and punchiest pulse you’ll see. Take it as it is—with

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