Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. Straight up, I gotta say, it’s a pretty grim stretch for Tolcarne. We’ve got a long dry spell with no real surf to speak of for the first chunk of the period, and only a couple of glimmers way out there.

The whole forecast starts off rough. We’ve got a solid 6ft swell from the West on Wednesday, August 5th, but with a strong WNW wind at 19 mph blowing cross-on, it’s just a messy, choppy scene. The combined energy is moderate (394), but it doesn’t matter when the wind’s ruining it. That vibe sticks around for days. Thursday the 6th is more of the same – smaller swell, poor conditions. Into Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th, the swell drops right off to tiny 1ft to 2ft. Yeah, it’s clean at times, but there’s no energy to work with. Combined energy is down in the weak 20s and 30s. That’s a no-go.

We then hit a real dead zone. From Sunday the 9th all the way through to Tuesday the 18th, the forecast is just a sea of poor surf conditions at Tolcarne. There’s a few moments where the swell bumps up, like on the 13th and 14th with 4ft to 5ft, but the wind is either onshore or cross-on, making it lumpy and ordinary. The water temp is about average for the time of year here, so no surprises there.

Now, there is a little spark. On Wednesday, August 12th, in the morning, we get a glassy window. The wind is swinging around to a light NNW at 3 mph, and it’s flat calm. The swell is only 2ft from the West, with a period of 10 seconds, so it’s a weak groundswell with moderate energy (104). The note says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” and honestly, for a 1 out of 10 score, that’s the best we’re gonna get for a long time. It’s clean, but don’t expect much push.

The real standout, if you’re a patient soul, is way out on Thursday, August 20th. That morning looks promising. We’ve got a 4ft West swell with a 9-second period, and the wind is light from the SSE at 6 mph, blowing offshore. That’s clean. The combined energy is moderate (268), and it’s the only day that gets a “good surf conditions” note. It’s a long way off, so take it with a grain of salt, but that’s the one to pencil in. The swell direction from the West matches the optimum for Tolcarne, so it should line up.

Before that, on Tuesday the 18th, the swell jumps up big time – 8ft to 10ft from the West. That’s for experts only, and the wind is cross-on, so it’s going to be a wild, choppy mess. The combined energy rips up to 1509, which is very strong, but it’s not a paddle-friendly scene. Honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is basically a write-off. The 12th offers a tiny, glassy session if you’re desperate. The real hope is the morning of the 20th of August – that’s the one to keep an eye on. The rest? Go for a walk.

Rusty.

Read more