Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this out there. Things are looking pretty ordinary for Tolcarne over the next couple of weeks, to be honest. There’s a real lack of quality on offer for a good stretch, and when the waves do show up, the wind is going to be messing things up. It’s one of those spells where you might be better off checking the tide charts and doing something else.

The first decent window doesn’t even open until Tuesday the 22nd. That’s a solid gap with no real recommendations from Wednesday the 16th all the way through Monday the 21st. During that stretch, we’ve got small, messy surf with onshore and cross-shore winds chopping everything up. Wave heights might look okay on paper at times, like that 7ft on Thursday morning, but with an 8-second period and fresh cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be lumpy and horrible.

Finally, on the morning of Tuesday the 22nd, things start to clean up. We’ve got a light ESE breeze swinging cross-off, and the surf is around 3ft. It’s small, but the clean conditions make it more interesting.

Then the standout arrives on Tuesday afternoon. The swell starts to build a bit, hitting 4ft with a very long 16-second period. The energy jumps right up, with the combined swell energy hitting 1044, which is strong. That’s some proper groundswell. The wind stays light and cross-off, so the surface is going to be glassy. This is easily the best surf of the whole run. However, that long period swell, over 15 seconds, can be a bit tricky. At a beach break, it can tend to close out and break too straight. It won’t be perfect, but it’ll be the best we get.

Wednesday the 23rd still has some promise. The swell is a touch bigger, 5ft in the morning, with that same 13-second period and clean cross-off winds. It’s a solid option, but the guidance suggests the conditions are a bit more questionable, so maybe the tide will be a factor.

After that, it’s a slow fade. Thursday the 24th drops right off to under 3ft and stays tiny for days. The winds to start with, a fresh E/ESE breeze, are cross-off, keeping things clean looking, but there’s just no energy in the water.

The next time things get interesting is over a week away, on Tuesday the 29th of September. The swell suddenly jumps back up, with the afternoon seeing 8ft of WSW swell. That’s a chunky size, over 8ft, so it’s firmly in the experts-only category. The wind is a cross-off E/ESE breeze, so it might be clean, but that size on a beach break with a 10-second period could be heavy and challenging. That energy is also very strong, with a reading of 1245.

The water temperature is 64°, which is a touch warmer than average for this time of year. Not a huge deal, but you might not need the thickest suit just yet.

So, your standout is Tuesday afternoon the 22nd. It’s the pick of the bunch for sure. Get on it if you can. The big day on the 29th is for the brave, but it’s a long way out, so don’t count on it.

Rusty.

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