Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s talk about Tolcarne. I’ll be honest with you, mate—we’ve got a bit of a dry spell to sit through before anything interesting shows up. From now, Wednesday the 8th of July, all the way through to late on Friday the 17th, it’s a grim run. Most of that time we’re looking at tiny, weak windswell with poor surf conditions; the combined wave energy is in the doldrums, often well under 130. Winds are mostly cross or cross-on, chopping everything up, and it’s just not worth paddling out for. You’d be wasting your energy.

Then, we finally get a flicker on Friday the 17th afternoon. The swell starts to lift a bit—5ft from the north with a period of 6 seconds. The combined energy climbs to 160, which is still only moderate. The real highlight for that afternoon is the wind going glassy. That’s a rare treat. Surfable, but very ordinary wave shape; still, if you’re desperate for a slide, that glassy surface will make it feel a lot better.

Saturday morning the 18th is another decent window with true offshore wind from the SSE, clean 4ft north swell, and combined energy at 141. Again, short period, so it’ll be a bit fat and sectiony at this beach break, but clean faces are clean faces. It won’t be anything special, but for the first surfable day in over a week, it’s a welcome sight.

Now, the real standout, the one you want to mark on your calendar, is Monday the 20th of July. That morning, Tolcarne wakes up. We’ve got a 6ft north swell with a combined energy reading of 499—that’s strong wave energy. The wind is a light, cross-offshore breeze from the southeast, giving you clean, lined-up waves. Expect good surf conditions. This is by far the best on offer through the whole period. For the first time in a long time, the sea will have some push, some proper grunt. The water temperature is 62°F at the start of the period, which is about 2°F warmer than average for the time of year—nothing radical, just a little bit of extra warmth to enjoy.

Because the swell is over 5ft but under 8ft, this isn’t really one for beginners—it’ll be pushing a bit too hard for the first-timers. For the experienced crew, Monday morning 20th July is your session. The period is only 6 seconds, so it’s a short-period windswell not a long groundswell, meaning it’ll be a bit crumbly and steep, but with that much energy and clean conditions, you’ll get your fill.

After that, conditions fall away again quickly into smaller, wind-affected slop for the rest of the forecast period. Nothing else jumps out.

Keep your eyes on Monday the 20th. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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