Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk Tolcarne in feet and miles per hour. It’s Rusty here.

This is a grim outlook for the most part, with a long stretch of flat, messy, or weak surf. The first real chance to get wet doesn’t come until Tuesday morning, 28 July, and it’s nothing to write home about.

Monday afternoon, 27 July, is a total washout. A 3ft west swell at a short 6 seconds, with a cross-on wind blowing at 12 mph. Choppy and useless.

Tuesday morning, 28 July, is the first glimmer. The swell drops to 3ft from the west, period stretches to 9 seconds, and the wind is a light cross-off at 6 mph. The water is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year at 66°. It’s clean, but the energy is weak. It’s surfable, but barely. Tuesday afternoon gets smaller.

Then it’s a long, dry gap. From Wednesday 29 July all the way through Sunday 2 August, it’s tiny, weak, and mostly onshore or cross-shore junk. Not worth the car park.

Monday 3 August and Tuesday 4 August see a tiny 1ft to 2ft west-southwest swell with light offshore or cross-off winds. Clean, but the energy is pathetic. You could get a longboard out for a few ankle-biters, but it’s hardly a session.

The next real chance comes on Friday 7 August. The morning is clean with a cross-off breeze from the southeast and a 3ft west swell. The afternoon gets better – a 4ft west swell with a gentle offshore wind from the southeast. Energy is moderate. It’s the best of the first week, but still not a standout.

The only standout, and the one that gets my blood pumping, is Saturday morning, 8 August. This is for experienced surfers only. A solid 8ft west swell with a 9-second period and a fresh offshore wind from the southeast at 19 mph. The energy reading is massive – 943 – that’s serious power. The swell direction matches the optimum (west), and the wind is clean. This is a big, powerful, clean swell, but at 8ft it’s experts only. Expect it to be a beast, and with offshore winds, the waves will be holding up well. Crowds are likely, so get there early.

After Saturday morning, Sunday 9 August drops to 7ft to 7ft, but the wind is strong and cross-shore, making it messy. Monday 10 August and Tuesday 11 August are all cross-onshore and choppy, with the swell fading.

So, to wrap it up: the best bet is Friday 7 August for a clean, fun-sized session, but the real highlight – the one to circle on the calendar – is Saturday morning, 8 August. That’s a big, clean, expert-only swell. Don’t hold your breath for the rest of the window.

Rusty.

Read more