Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Tolcarne.

Honestly, straight up, the next two weeks are looking pretty bleak. There’s a long stretch of small, messy conditions ahead. The first real chance of anything rideable isn’t until Friday the 3rd of July, and even then it’s just a one-hit wonder before things go flat again.

Friday, July 3rd – The only real highlight.

We’ve got a window on Friday morning that’s actually worth setting the alarm for. The swell is a clean 4ft out of the west, with a solid 10-second period driving it. The real kicker is the wind – a light 3 mph cross-off from the SSW, so those waves are going to be holding up nice and clean. The combined energy is moderate at 335, but for Tolcarne, that’s enough to get a few fun ones. The water’s sitting at 62°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can ditch the thickest rubber. This is a beginner-friendly spot, and it’s “fairly consistent” – but be warned, it gets “often” crowded, and with conditions this good locally, expect a few mates out.

Friday afternoon, the wind bumps up to 12 mph from the west and goes cross-shore, turning things messy real quick. Don’t bother.

The big gap.

After that Friday morning window, we’re looking at a massive dry spell. From Saturday the 4th right through to Sunday the 12th of July, it’s a write-off. The swell drops below 3ft, the wind is either onshore or cross-onshore, or the period is too short. You’ll see energy values dropping into the double digits – weak stuff. It’s a lot of days with nothing worth paddling out for.

Mid-July tease.

There is a bit of a pulse showing up on Monday the 14th of July. The morning sees a west swell at 3ft with an 11-second period, clean under a 16 mph cross-off from the east. The combined energy jumps to 264, solid moderate. But Tuesday the 15th is also showing a decent 3ft west swell with clean winds, though the energy drops back to 154. These are standouts for the second week, but they’re still a long way off, so treat them as promising but not locked in.

Then we get to Saturday, July 18th. Now this one is interesting. The morning swell is pushing 6ft out of the WSW, but with an 8-second period – short period, windswell stuff. Afternoon it jumps to 7ft with a 10-second period, and the combined energy rockets to 904, which is strong. But... the wind is blowing 9 mph onshore from the NNW. That’s onshore, choppy, and sloppy. For a beach-and-reef setup like Tolcarne, that’s not going to be clean. At 7ft, this is only for the experts, and with that onshore wind, it’s looking more like a kite-surfing session than a clean paddle. Don’t get your hopes up.

So, if you want a wave in the next two weeks, your best bet is that early Friday morning session on July 3rd. The rest is a waiting game. Stick with it though – things can change.

Rusty.

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