Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good hard look at what’s coming our way over the next 16 days for Tolcarne.

To be straight with you, it’s a bleak run for most of it. The swell is mostly small and weak, and the wind hardly ever plays nice for a proper paddle session. For the first week especially, you’re looking at day after day of poor surf conditions with cross-onshore breezes and choppy, lumpy water. There’s no real run of quality waves to get excited about, and a lot of those days you’ll be better off keeping the board in the van. The water temp at the start is sitting around 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t freeze waiting for a set that never comes.

Now, there is one tiny window where things nearly come together. On Tuesday morning, 28th July, we get a short-lived window of glassy conditions at Tolcarne. The wind drops right out, swinging light SSE. The swell is tiny, just 3 ft from the WNW with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is weak at 108. It’s surfable but very ordinary—think small, clean little rollers for a cruiser board. Don’t expect any power. Crowds are likely here as it’s a popular spot, but with waves this small, it might be a fun little paddle for beginners.

After that brief moment of glass, it’s back to onshore junk and near-flat conditions for days on end. We get another tiny glimpse on the morning of Saturday, 1st August, with some cleaner conditions as a light SW cross-offshore breeze sets in. The swell is still small though, around 4 ft from the west at 7 seconds, and energy is only 129. It’s surfable but still very ordinary. Nothing to write home about.

The only real standout for size, if you can call it that, shows up way out in the forecast—on Sunday morning, 9th August. The WNW swell jumps to 6 ft with a period of 7 seconds, and combined energy hits 339—moderate energy now. But the wind is NW at 15 mph, cross-onshore again, making it choppy and messy. That’s not a day for a clean ride; that’s a day for kites if you’re into that. It’s a long way out and less certain, but even if it arrives clean, the setup here is a beach break, and with that short period, it’s going to be a bumpy mess.

Honestly, there are no standout quality days in this window. Only one morning (28th July) offers a tiny chance at a glassy, small-wave session. The rest is a write-off. Your best bet is to watch the forecasts—things can change, and it doesn’t often stay this poor for this long around here.

Rusty.

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