Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty.

Let’s be straight with you: Tolcarne is going to be a tough one to chase over this 16-day window. The surf is small and choppy for most of it, with hardly any clean windows. The swell direction mostly favours the west, while the optimum direction here is west, which is a match, but that’s about the only good news. The combined wave energy stays weak to moderate—mostly under 200 and rarely cracking past 500—so there’s no real grunt in the water. This is a beginner-friendly spot, fairly consistent, but often crowded. The water temp on the morning of the 26th sits at 65°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Right now, Sunday morning the 26th is a no-go: 7ft of WNW swell at a short 8 seconds, with a cross-onshore breeze from 22 mph. That’s lumpy and messy. The energy reads 555—moderate—but with that wind, it’s a write-off. Sunday afternoon stays poor: 7ft, same lumpy cross-on wind. Monday the 27th drops to 3ft, but cross-on again, period is 9 seconds, energy down to 205. Still junk.

Tuesday the 28th is the first real glimmer. Morning sees a tiny 2ft swell, but the wind swings to a light cross-off from the south at 3 mph, and it’s clean. Energy is low at 65. By the afternoon, wind goes glassy—WNW at 3 mph—and the swell lifts to 2ft at 9 seconds. It’s tiny but glassy, so if you’ve got a foamie, this is your moment. Wednesday the 29th morning stays clean, with 2ft and offshore from the SSE at 6 mph, energy 51. Afternoon turns choppy again with cross-on.

Thursday the 30th sees the swell bump to 5ft in the morning, but it’s cross-on from WNW at 9 mph, period 7 seconds—short and lumpy. Energy 233. Not worth it. Friday the 31st is onshore and messy. Saturday and the first few days of August are flat and crossed-up. From 1st to 3rd, you’re looking at 1.0ft to 3ft, weak energy, mostly onshore or cross-on. Not a single standout.

Then Tuesday 4th August shows some push: 6ft in the morning from the west at 10 seconds, but cross-shore wind at 19 mph from the WSW, energy 563. Conditions are lumpy cross-chop—powerful but messy. Still no good. Wednesday 5th August afternoon is the closest we get to a surf: 8ft from the west at 8 seconds, cross-shore at 12 mph, energy 771. The file calls it marginal due to tide, and the wind is moderate cross-shore with a cross-chop. Not clean. Thursday 6th is cross-on and choppy again.

Saturday 8th August morning is a weird one—10ft of WSW swell at 10 seconds, but the wind is onshore from the NNW at 9 mph. That’s too big for beginners anyway, and the file says it’s predicted to be too big for this break. Energy is a massive 1886—strong—but the wind and size make it expert only, and even then it’s not clean. Afternoon drops to 8ft, still onshore, energy 1020. Not recommended.

After that, the last few days drop back to 2ft to 3ft, cross-shore and lumpy, energy under 200. The real truth is: there’s no best day across this whole run. The Tuesday 28th glassy afternoon is the only session that feels surfable, and that’s barely knee-high. For everything else, the combination of short-period swell, cross-on or onshore wind, and just moderate energy means you’re better off waiting. With the break being fairly consistent but often crowded, it doesn’t usually stay this poor for long, but this run is a quiet one.

Rusty

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