Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Tolcarne over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a pretty grim stretch for paddle surfing. The whole 16-day window is a long, flat, grovelly run. There are no standout options, and not a single session gets above a 1 out of 10. For a stretch like this, it’s worth remembering that this area can have blank runs, and right now we’re in the middle of one. It tends not to stay this way forever, but for now, there’s nothing to get excited about.

The first real chance for a surfable wave doesn’t even arrive until Wednesday the 8th of July. That morning, the wind goes glassy from the East at just 3 mph, which is a rare bit of calm, and the water is sitting at a touch warmer than normal for the time of year (62°F with a 3°F anomaly). But the swell is a weak 2ft from the West, with a short 9-second period and a combined energy of only 86. The wave comment calls it “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” which is about right. You might get a few soft, clean little lumps, but it’s really only for the absolute beginner on soft tops. The afternoon gets choppy again.

Beyond that, it’s a mess. The wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, the swell stays tiny, and the period rarely gets above 8 or 9 seconds. The combined energy stays in the low double or triple digits, which is weak energy throughout. There’s a brief moment on Thursday the 9th afternoon with a clean, cross-off breeze from the ESE at 16 mph, and again on Friday the 10th with a gentle offshore from the South at 9 mph in the afternoon, but the swell is still only 2ft to 3ft and gutless.

The largest swell shows up around Saturday the 11th into Sunday the 12th, with heights up to 4ft, but the energy is still moderate at best (254-299) and the wind is howling cross-on at 12 mph. That’s choppy, messy, and no fun. For a beach break like Tolcarne, a bigger swell with that wind will just be a washing machine. It looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing during that event.

The final few days just fade away into nothing, with swell dropping to 1ft and energy down to a pathetic 19 by Sunday the 19th.

The bottom line: there is no good surf here. Not one session is worth going out of your way for. The one morning of glass on the 8th is the best you’ll get, and even then, it’s barely a wave. Leave the board in the car and watch the horizon, because the forecasts might change, but right now, it’s a write-off.

Rusty.

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