Tolcarne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough stretch. The forecast is showing a long, dry spell with no real surf to speak of. We’re looking at a gap that stretches from now, through the end of August, and well into the first week of September. There’s just nothing on offer that’s worth paddling out for. The only spot in the mix is Tolcarne, and it’s a tough one.

The first few days are a total write-off. From Saturday the 22nd through Monday the 24th, we’ve got tiny, wind-affected waves with energy levels barely cracking 90 (combined energy of all swells directed here). The water is sitting at 65°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s where the good news ends. Winds are cross or cross-on, making for choppy, messy conditions.

Things don’t really improve much through the week. Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th see a little more shape with cleaner conditions as the wind goes cross-off or offshore, but the swell is still tiny – nothing over 2 ft. It’s just not enough to get excited about.

We get a little bump in energy on Thursday the 27th, with a 3 ft swell from the SW and a moderate breeze keeping things clean, but the combined energy jumps to 131. Still, the wave comment says “poor surf conditions,” so I’m not sold. By Friday the 28th, the swell pushes up to 5 ft from the WSW, but the period is short at 9 seconds, and the wind is howling cross-shore. It’s messy.

The weekend of the 29th and 30th brings a bigger pulse – 7 ft from the W on Saturday morning – but it’s accompanied by strong cross-onshore winds and rain showers. The energy is high (639), but the quality is total junk. This is one of those setups where the beach is going to be a washing machine, more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. By Sunday, it drops back to 4 ft with cleaner winds, but the period is a pathetic 6 seconds.

The first week of September is more of the same. Monday the 31st has 7 ft swell but fresh cross-onshore winds, lumpy and poor. The rest of the week dwindles down to knee-high mush with short periods. There’s a long-period spike on Wednesday the 2nd (17 seconds), but the swell is only 0.7 ft high – you’d be scratching for a ripple.

So, the bottom line: there are no standouts here. The entire 16-day window is a bust for Tolcarne. The only real highlight is that the water is a touch warmer than normal, but that’s cold comfort when there’s no surf. It’s a blank run, and for this area, that’s not uncommon when the patterns lock in like this. We’ll have to wait for the next system.

Rusty.

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