Strand (Pipe) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve been poring over the charts for the next 16 days. We’ve only got one spot on the menu: Strand (Pipe). It’s a beach and reef set-up, and it’s exposed to the swell, so it can pick up a lot of that southern ocean energy. The water is sitting at 58° right now, which is a bit colder than what you’d expect for this time of year – that anomaly of 2° below average means you’ll feel that extra chill on the paddle out.

The pattern is looking pretty promising overall, with a real standout window of quality surf. It’s not flat out of the gate, but the early action on Monday the 10th is a bit of a write-off; it’s a choppy 8ft with a cross-off wind and the energy is big (1609), but the wave comment is marginal. Best to give that a miss. Tuesday the 11th morning is where we start. The swell drops to a clean 6ft from the S with a 12-second period, and here’s the key: we’ve got a solid offshore wind from the ESE at 12 mph. That’s going to hold the faces up perfectly. The combined energy is still strong (1685), and the conditions are excellent for experienced surfers.

That Tuesday afternoon and all of Wednesday the 12th are just classic. Wednesday morning is 4ft from the SW with an 18-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell, meaning those sets will have real grunt and proper shape. The wind is a whisper from the ENE at only 3 mph, which is a major positive, keeping it clean. Then Wednesday afternoon? Absolute perfection. It’s glassy, with zero wind, the same 4ft of SW swell, and the energy is still strong (1073). This is the heart of the great run. For a beach and reef break like Strand, that long-period (18 seconds) SW groundswell can be a bit straight, but with offshore and glassy winds, it’ll be reeling off the reef.

Thursday the 13th keeps it going with a light offshore wind and 5ft swell, though the morning is cross-off and the afternoon is proper offshore. Friday the 14th drops off significantly – the swell dips to 4ft and the wind goes messy, so we’ll call that a rest day. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th are pretty flat or blown out, so there’s a bit of a lull for a couple of days.

Now, the real standout of the entire period is shaping up for the back half. Monday the 17th morning has a nice 5ft SW swell with a 16-second period and light cross-off wind. That’s good. But look at Wednesday the 19th morning. We get a 6ft SW swell with a 14-second period, glassy conditions, and the combined energy is strong (1139). Another absolute gem for the experienced crew.

Then there’s a competitor for the best of the whole run: Thursday the 20th. The swell jumps up to 8ft from the SSE, but the period is a short 9 seconds. For a spot that’s best with SW swell, this is a bit of a mis-match direction-wise. However, the wind is a fresh 19 mph offshore from the ESE. That’s a lot of wind. For the experts, that 8ft swell is their territory, and the offshore wind will make it look like a different break. The energy is strong (1195), but that short period means it’ll be a bit bumpy and fat. Honestly, with that strength of wind, it might be more of a kite-surfing dream than a paddle surf session for most.

After another small dip, the forecast closes strong. Sunday the 23rd morning is back to a clean 5ft SW with a moderate offshore (16 mph), and then Monday the 24th is the true final cherry on top. Monday morning is completely glassy with a 5ft SW swell and a 14-second period. That is the cleanest, most inviting surf of the whole window. The energy is solid (1490). Monday afternoon is a glassy 5ft SSW swell with a 16-second period and an enormous energy reading (1726). That is the best of the best, hands down.

So, there are two periods to circle on your calendar: the Wednesday/Thursday of the first week (12th/13th) and then that Monday the 24th. For a spot that breaks fairly consistently, we’ve got a good run. If you can only go once, make it Monday the 24th. The windows of perfection are there, you just have to be on them.

Rusty.

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