Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about this stretch. I’ve looked at the charts for Rabbit/Manana Island and honestly, for the next couple of weeks, it’s a tough watch. The wind is locked in from the east-northeast nearly every day, and that’s the worst angle for this spot. It’s blowing cross or cross-onshore, and the wave comment is almost always "poor surf conditions." There’s no real standout session here, just a long grind of messy, lumpy surf.

The water temp is sitting at around 79°F, which is about average for the time of year.

From Thursday the 16th right through until the end of the month, the wind is relentless. The swell is small to moderate, mostly around 4ft to 7ft, but it’s coming from the east-northeast or east, with short periods of 6 to 8 seconds for most of it. That’s windswell, not groundswell, and it’s being chopped up by the wind. The combined energy figures are moderate, but with all that wind, it just doesn’t shape up.

There’s a brief change around the 22nd and 23rd of July where the period jumps to 12-13 seconds, but the swell is tiny at around 2ft and the wind is still cross. That’s a tease, not a session.

Towards the end of the run, on the 28th and 29th of July, things get a little closer to the edge. The swell picks up to 5ft to 6ft from the east, with periods of 12 to 14 seconds, and the wind backs off a bit to a gentle or moderate breeze, but it’s still cross-shore. The wave comment says "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions" – so it’s not a total write-off, but it’s not a green light.

The biggest issue is the wind. It’s from the east-northeast or northeast constantly, which is onshore or cross-onshore here. The swell direction is also mostly from the east quadrant, which is the same as the optimum swell direction for Rabbit/Manana Island. So the swell is coming from the right direction, but the wind is ruining it. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, if I’m being honest.

The 26th and 27th of July have a very long period swell of 15-16 seconds from the east, with combined energy in the strong range. But the wind is still strong cross-onshore, lumping it up. A long period swell like that would be better off at a reef or point break, not a beach break with a cross-onshore wind.

If you’re desperate, the 28th or 29th of July morning might give you a window. The swell is around 5ft to 6ft, with a long period of 12-14 seconds, and the wind is a gentle to moderate breeze, cross-shore. It’s not clean, but it’s the least bad option.

Otherwise, it’s a long stretch of poor conditions. The forecast can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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