Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a seat and let's talk about the Rabbit/Manana Island stretch. I've got to be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and messy for most of the time. The water's sitting at a warm 81°, which is about average for this time of year, so no complaints there.

The pattern is a long, frustrating run of nothing to get excited about. We've got a solid run of poor conditions kicking off Friday, August 14th, and it just doesn't let up. The wind is a problem – it's mostly cross-onshore or cross-shore from the ENE, and it's often fresh to strong. The swell is there, but it's short-period, lumpy, and blown out. The wave energy is moderate at best, starting around 500 but quickly climbing to strong levels like 1268 and even 2502 over the weekend – but that's all just messy, un-surfable power. This is a beach and reef setup, so with this much wind and chop, it's honestly looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddling.

The first real glimmer of hope doesn't come until Saturday, August 22nd. The morning shows a tiny 3 ft swell from the ENE with a period of 8 seconds, and the wind is a light cross-offshore from the SE. The wave energy is weak (107), but it's clean. That's the only window in the first week, and it's a very small one.

Then we get another long gap. The whole week from the 23rd to the 26th is back to poor, cross-onshore conditions, with the swell picking up to around 6 ft to 6 ft but still short-period and lumpy.

The real standout, though, is still a long way off. On Thursday, August 27th, the swell direction finally shifts and the period jumps – we're talking a 4 ft swell from the E with a very long 18-second period. The wave energy is strong (1383). The wind is cross-shore from the ENE, so it's a bit lumpy, but the swell quality is a massive step up. This is a deep, long-period groundswell, so it'll be the best shape we've seen in weeks. It's best for the reefs and points here, as a long period like that can make the beach breaks a bit too straight. The morning of the 28th also looks promising with clean, gentle cross-shore winds and a 4 ft, 17-second swell (energy 1174). This is a solid, promising setup for the end of the month. The 29th still has some decent swell, but the energy drops and the wind picks up a little.

So, to be honest, the only real window for a decent surf is that Saturday, August 22nd morning for a very small, clean session, and then the last week of August, from the 27th onward, when the long-period groundswell rolls in. The long-range stuff looks promising, but it's a long way out, so keep an eye on the charts.

Rusty.

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