Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let's be straight up: the next couple of weeks are a proper grind for surf around Rabbit/Manana Island. We've got a serious run of messy conditions ahead, so you'll need to pick your moments carefully.

The opening act is the standout window, and it's a short one. Sunday the 16th of August is your only real shot at something decent. Early morning is where it's at, but it's not for everyone. We've got a sizeable 13ft swell rolling in from the east, with a period of 9 seconds. That's a big, powerful wave – too big for beginners, and even for most intermediates, this is expert territory. The combined energy is pumping hard at 2418 (strong to very strong wave energy). What makes it interesting is the wind: a cross-off ESE breeze at 22 mph will keep the faces clean. The water temp is sitting at 80°, pretty much average for this time of year. This is the pick of the 16-day run, no doubt. The afternoon slides into a marginal call with a risk of storms, the swell drops to 8ft but the wind picks up from the southeast, so it's not as good.

Now for the bad news. From Monday the 17th of August all the way through to the end of the month, it’s a long, ugly stretch. For the next two weeks, it’s mostly cross-on winds – mainly from the ENE or NE – blowing in the 16 to 25 mph range. The swell sticks around in the 3ft to 12ft zone, but with the wind on it, the surface will be lumpy, choppy, and messy. There is a brief flicker on Friday the 21st of August when the wind goes light and cross-off, but the swell is tiny at 3ft and very ordinary. It's surfable, but nothing to write home about.

From the 25th of August through to the 31st, the swell gets bigger again – up to 12ft – but the wind is relentless, hammering the surface. The combined energy values are high (over 1500 on the 27th and 28th), suggesting plenty of power, but with that constant cross-on breeze, it's just a washing machine out there. This setup is honestly more suited to kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of that period, especially at a beach/reef setup like this. For expert riders who can handle a messy, powerful ocean, there might be something to find, but for the average surfer, it's a frustrating wait. The crowds are listed as *sometimes* present, but with conditions this poor, I doubt many will be out.

So, to sum it up: your one and only real highlight is very early Sunday the 16th of August. After that, it’s a two-week blank of poor to terrible conditions. Keep the board waxed and hope the forecasts shift.

Rusty.

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