Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. It’s Rusty here, and honestly, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for us. We’ve got a long stretch ahead with no real surf on offer, so let’s just be straight about that.

The whole 16-day window is pretty much a write-off for good waves. We start with a gap of over a week where there’s nothing ridable. The winds are just going to be a constant problem – mostly fresh cross-shore and cross-onshore, which is going to leave the ocean lumpy and chopped up. There’s some swell on the way, sure, but the quality is going to be poor, and the energy is weak to moderate at best (189–342) through the first week. It’s going to be messy.

We had a small window around Thursday the 3rd through Saturday the 5th where things lighten up a touch, with swell around 4ft, but the period is still short and the winds are still cross-onshore. It’s surfable for someone who just wants to get wet, but you’ll be fighting the chop the whole time. Not worth getting excited about.

Then, there’s another quiet patch until around Sunday the 6th. That day, the winds finally back off to a gentle breeze, and the surf becomes “marginal” at best. We're looking at 3ft with a more reasonable 11-second period. The energy is still moderate (262–307), but it’s the first time the ocean looks semi-clean. Still, it’s a far cry from good.

The best of a bad bunch looks like it could be Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th. The swell stays around 4ft, the period is a solid 11 seconds, and while the wind is still cross-shore, it’s lighter. Energy is picking up too (526–539). It’s got the most potential of the bunch, but it’s still only marginal. If you can, that’s your window. The swell direction is from the east, which is okay for our exposed spots, but the optimistic side is that it’s not a huge, unruly swell.

If we’re talking about a specific break, look to Rabbit/Manana Island. It’s a fairly consistent spot, but given the conditions, even it will be tough. The swell is all coming from the ENE, which is roughly in line with its optimal direction, and it’s an exposed spot, so it’ll see most of it. Just don’t expect any standouts.

Honestly, this is one of those stretches where the weather just isn’t on our side. A blank run like this is more normal for this area than people like to admit. Forecasts can change, though, so don’t give up hope entirely. But as it stands, the paddle out is going to be more of a fight than a pleasure.

Keep it salty.

Rusty

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