Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Well, folks, it’s Rusty here, and I gotta level with you. Looking at the next 16 days for our stretch of coast, this is one of those stretches where you might wanna double-check your board wax and just wait for a window, because right now, the ocean’s just not playing ball. The standout spot, Rabbit/Manana Island, is breaking, sure, but every single window in this outlook is rated as poor surf. It’s a pretty grim picture, a real flat and choppy stretch.

The wave energy never really gets going, mostly sitting in that weak to moderate range. We’re seeing the combined energy values in the low to mid hundreds, like around 489 at the start, but it quickly fades. Even when the swell source looks okay, the wind is the killer. All week, it’s onshore or cross-shore, which is just chasing everything out and leaving it lumpy and messy. The water's warm, about 80.6°, which is pretty much average for this time of year, so at least you won't need a hood.

We start the period this Wednesday, the 9th, with a bit of a tease. There's a clean-looking morning with a light cross-on breeze, but the surf is only around 3.9ft with a short, 9-second period. It’s the only morning that isn't totally written off, but it’s still a “marginal” call. That’s the best it gets, and it’s not saying much.

From Wednesday afternoon, it just goes downhill. Thursday the 10th brings a bump of swell—pushing up to 5.9ft—but the wind is fresh and onshore, making it a complete washout. The period drops to a junky 7 seconds, and it's cross-chop central. It’s not even worth paddling out for that one.

The whole first week is a write-off. We got a solid seven to eight day stretch here with nothing but onshore wind, chop, and poor surf. Wednesday through to the following Tuesday, the swell is there at times, around the 3ft mark, but it’s constantly being battered by 15-20 mph winds. A couple of afternoons have a longer period swell, like the 11-second one on Friday, but it’s still messy. The energy just fizzles out by mid-week, dropping down to weak readings in the low hundreds.

Looking further out, and I mean a week and a half away, there’s a sniff of something bigger. Around the 17th and 18th of September, Thursday and Friday, the models are showing a push of swell back up to 4.6ft to 5.2ft. But, and it’s a big but, the wind is forecast to be blowing a fresh 20 to 22 mph from the east-northeast. That’s not going to give us the clean lines we want. The period is still short—around 8 seconds—so it’s going to be a bumpy, lumpy mess. The energy does climb back up to moderate levels then, but with wind like that, it's going to be a battle.

There are some promising long-period glassy conditions after that, but they're just not aligning with any decent swell. The whole window is honestly looking more like a kitesurfer's forecast than a surfer's. With that constant cross-shore wind and the size of the swell, there’s gonna be a lot of chop and bump for them to play in, but for us paddle surfers? Not so much.

If you're desperate, that Wednesday morning is your only real chance, and even then, you're just getting wet. But look, the spot is fairly consistent, so it tends not to stay this bad for long. Forecasts can change. My advice? Keep an eye on the charts, and I’ll see you out there when it cleans up.

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