Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for our little patch of ocean around Rabbit/Manana Island. Gotta be straight with you—this is a rough stretch. We’re looking at a 16-day window and honestly, for the vast majority of it, the ocean is going to be a lumpy, cross-onshore mess. The wind is locked in from the ENE nearly the whole time, which is not our friend here.

The first week is a total write-off. From Saturday the 25th of July all the way through to Tuesday the 28th, it’s just poor surf conditions. The wind is howling at 18 to 25 mph from the east-northeast, making it fresh cross-onshore and lumpy. Even with some swell on the table, it’s not worth paddling out for. The combined wave energy is moderate, but it’s all junky.

Then, finally, a glimmer on Wednesday the 29th of July. The wind shifts to a moderate offshore, coming from the south, and the surf cleans right up. The morning sees a solid 10ft swell from the east-northeast with a period of 11 seconds. That’s a lot of water moving. The combined energy is strong. But here’s the thing—it’s predicted to be too big for this break. That’s a heavy, powerful wave for Rabbit/Manana Island, and it’s really only for the experienced crew. If you’re a beginner, sit this one out.

The true standout of the whole outlook is the Wednesday afternoon session. The swell drops to a more manageable 7ft from the ENE, the period is still a decent 9 seconds, and the wind remains offshore from the south at 12 mph. The models are calling for very good surf conditions. The energy is moderate, but with clean, offshore conditions, the waves will be well-shaped and fun. This is the one session you want to be in the water for. Don’t sleep on it.

The wind messes up again after that. Thursday the 30th sees a return to dirty cross-shore wind, and from Friday the 31st of July through the first week of August, it’s back to strong cross-onshore winds and messy, lumpy surf. There’s a brief, marginal look on Tuesday the 4th of August and Wednesday the 5th, with light wind and some swell, but the tide and conditions are questionable. It’s not a confident call to get excited about.

The long-range stuff in the second week doesn’t rescue the outlook. The wind stays locked in from the east, and the swell is small and short-period, with combined energy dropping to weak levels. It’s a bit of a blank run.

So, to sum it up: the best session on offer is that Wednesday afternoon, the 29th of July. Get it while it’s clean. The rest of the 16 days are mostly a washout. Hold tight, and forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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