Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this straight. The next week and a half is going to be a battle, not a surf session. We’re looking at a long stretch of onshore and cross-onshore energy with almost no let-up. The wind machine is stuck on ENE, and it’s blowing hard enough to put a real chop on everything. The water’s sitting at 80° with a normal temperature anomaly, so it’s warm, but the surface is going to be messy.

We start off Tuesday morning with a couple of waves on offer – 5ft of ENE swell at 11 seconds, with moderate energy (515). It’s cross-shore and already a bit lumpy. The scores are poor, and the tide is questionable. That’s about the only window where you could even consider it, and honestly, it’s not worth paddling out for. The rest of the day and all of Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday are a write-off. The wind kicks up, the swell stays small and choppy, and the period drops out. The energy dips right down to 82 and 89 on Friday, so it’s basically flat with a bump.

The weekend rolls in with a bit more size, but it’s still lumpy and cross-onshore. Saturday morning has 5ft at 7 seconds, but the wind is fresh and it’s just a mess. Sunday bumps up to 6ft, but the wind is pushing 25 mph and it’s going to be a washing machine. This is not surfable. This is the kind of conditions where you’d rather be on a kite.

We’re looking at a real gap here. From the first day’s poor outlook right through the weekend, there’s nothing worth your time. The wind is relentless, and the swell is short-period and onshore. It’s a long, bleak stretch.

The energy starts to build again as we get into the second week. Monday the 11th and Tuesday the 12th come in around 5ft to 6ft, but the period is still short and the wind stays on it. The fresh cross-shore keeps it bumpy. It’s not until the middle of the week that things get a little more interesting.

Thursday the 14th and Friday the 15th see the swell pick up to 6ft, and the energy is climbing back up – 394 on Thursday morning, 451 on Saturday morning. The period is still only 8 seconds, so it’s not got that push, but the size is there. The wind is still an issue, though. It’s fresh and cross-onshore, and it’s going to be lumpy.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is the weekend of the 16th and 17th. The swell builds to 8ft and 8ft on Sunday the 16th, with energy values hitting 662 and 709. That’s strong wave energy. But here’s the catch – the period is 8 seconds, and the wind is going to be strong and cross-onshore. It’s going to be big, but it’s going to be a complete mess. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. This is more about the power than the shape. For the average surfer, this is too big and too messy. If you’re out there, you’re an expert, and you’re probably not having a good time.

The swell sticks around 7ft to 8ft into the start of the next week, but the wind is still strong and the period is short. It’s a long stretch of poor surf. The only thing that’s consistent is the wind. If you’re looking for something clean, you’re out of luck.

So, here’s the bottom line. There’s nothing good on offer in the next 16 days. The only spot we’re looking at is Rabbit/Manana Island. It’s fairly consistent, but it’s an exposed spot, and with this wind and swell direction, it’s just going to be a choppy, messy beach break. The setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s a blank run, and it’s a long one. Forecasts can change, but as it stands, you’re better off fixing your board or finding a lake.

Rusty out.

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