Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, c’mon in, grab a coffee. Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you – the next sixteen days look like a real battle for this stretch of coast. We’re lookin’ at Rabbit/Manana Island, and honestly, the surf report is a tough read. There’s a long, grim stretch of poor conditions ahead, with a blip of hope way, way out on the horizon.

The whole forecast is a flat spell of onshore slop, thanks to a persistent ENE trade wind that just won’t let up. For the first full week, from Thursday, the 30th of July, right through to the 11th of August, it’s all no good. The wind is a constant cross or cross-onshore, often a fresh to strong breeze, churning the ocean into a lumpy, messy cross-chop. The wave comment is "poor surf conditions" for every single session with a score of zero. The swell is there, no doubt, but it’s short-period windswell, and the wind is ruining it completely. On Saturday the 1st of August, the combined wave energy hits 1107 (strong to very strong), with a 8ft swell from the ENE, but the wind is a strong breeze from the same direction, making it an ugly, blown-out mess. For a beginner, that size is too big, and for anyone, the quality is just destroyed. The water temp is around 80°F (normal for the time of year), but you won’t care about that when you’re getting blown off your board.

We’ve got a 12-day gap with no surfable recommendations here. The setup is a beach-and-reef combo, but with this much strong wind and poor quality, it honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for the entire first half of the forecast.

There is one tiny, tiny glimmer. On Tuesday morning, the 11th of August, the wind finally swings to a light ESE cross-offshore breeze at just 10 km/h. The wave comment changes to "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions" with a score of 1. The swell is weak, 5ft from the ENE with a short period of 7 seconds, and the combined energy is only 177 (weak). It’ll be clean – glassy and clean, the wind state says "clean" – but the waves themselves will be ordinary. It’s the only period in the whole 16 days where you could even paddle out. Then, on Thursday afternoon, the 13th of August, we get a similar setup: a light ESE breeze at 10 km/h, clean conditions, but again a weak, short-period swell (3ft from the NE, 9 seconds, 171 energy). It’s the same story – a very brief window of clean but weak surf.

So, the honest truth is this: don’t hold your breath for the next two weeks. Keep your gear ready for that Tuesday the 11th of August, or Thursday the 13th of August, for a possible paddle in clean, weak waves. It’s not a standout, it’s a survivor. The rest of the period is a write-off. The breaks are fairly consistent in their offering, but the conditions are consistently poor. Forecasts can change, so don’t give up entirely, but as it stands, this is a tough one.

Rusty.

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