Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this 16-day window for Rabbit/Manana Island is a tough one. The whole stretch is riddled with messy, onshore or cross-shore winds and choppy conditions. There’s no real standout, no magic window where it all comes together. The best we can say is that the second week shows a pulse of very long-period swell, but it’s still blowing onshore, so it’s more of a “watch and wait” scenario than a “go now” plan.

Looking at the next several days, right through to the 20th of July, it’s a grim grind. The wind is locked in from the ENE, mostly fresh to strong, kicking up lumpy cross-chop and cross-onshore slop. The swell is running in the 3ft to 8ft range, but with a short, weak period of 7 to 8 seconds, it’s just not going to have any shape. The combined wave energy is moderate, hitting between 178 and 613 (moderate energy), but it’s all wind-slop. The water temp is 79°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least that’s comfortable. But honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing – the wind is strong and sideshore, but the waves are just a mess.

Now, into the second week, things get weird. On the 21st and 22nd of July, the swell period jumps dramatically to 20 seconds and 18 seconds – that’s a very long period groundswell arriving from the east. The swell height is small, only 3ft to 4ft, but the energy skyrockets to 1095 and 1395 (strong to very strong wave energy). That’s a lot of power for a small wave. The problem? The wind is still onshore from the ENE. This is a classic recipe for a long-period swell that’s going to break too straight for most beach breaks, and with the onshore wind, it’s going to be bumpy. It’s still a “poor surf conditions” call. The crowd factor here is “sometimes,” so it’s not a secret spot, but with conditions this poor, it’s more of a “don’t bother” than a mission.

The last few days, the 23rd and 24th of July, the period drops back down to 6-7 seconds, and the energy fades. The wind is still ENE, still onshore. It just doesn’t turn around. The whole 16 days is a washout, unfortunately. When the swell is from the ENE and the wind is from the ENE, there’s no offshore magic. It’s a blank run for the area, and it’s not unusual for this spot to have long stretches of poor conditions when the trade winds lock in. Keep your board waxed, and check the forecast again in a few days – things can change.

Rusty.

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