Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m looking at the 16-day forecast for Rabbit/Manana Island. Straight up, this is a tough stretch. That combination of swell direction and wind just doesn’t line up for clean surf at this spot for most of the run.

The optimum swell direction for this place is NNE, but almost every day we’re seeing swell coming from the east-northeast or east. That’s not a great match to start with, and the wind is almost constantly onshore or cross-shore. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing weird there, but that’s about the only thing that’s neutral.

We kick off Monday, July 20th, through the whole of that week and into the weekend. Waves are there—between 5 ft and 8 ft—but the wind is relentless. We’ve got moderate to fresh cross-onshore breezes all the way through Saturday, July 25th, with combined energy climbing from 240 up to a whopping 970 on Saturday afternoon. But that energy is all blown out and messy. Saturday the 25th sees the biggest swell, hitting 8 ft from the NE with 970 energy, but it’s accompanied by a fresh cross-onshore wind that’s just going to chop it up.

Sunday, July 26th gets interesting on paper, but not in reality. We get a pulse of very long period groundswell—16 seconds—from the east, with massive energy readings of 1594 and 1647. That’s a lot of power. But the swell height is only 5 ft to 5 ft, and that long period at a beach break usually means those waves are going to jack up and close out, or just break too straight. Plus, the wind is still a fresh cross-onshore. It’s going to be lumpy and tough to find a decent wall. That long period energy might make paddling out a bit easier between sets, but getting a good ride will be a chore. It’s not a standout, just a frustrating tease.

We then hit a long, flat stretch. From Monday, July 27th onward, the energy drops. We see a couple of days around 5 ft, but the wind stays onshore. By the 31st of July and into the start of August, the swell drops right off to 2 ft to 3 ft. There’s a brief moment on Monday, August 3rd where the swell is tiny at 2 ft, but the wind finally goes light cross-shore with a light breeze. That’s probably the closest to clean we get, but the waves are knee-high at best and with a 13-second period on that small a swell, you’re waiting ages for a ridable one.

To be honest, this whole 16-day outlook is a write-off for paddle surfing. The one or two times the swell is decent size, the wind kills it. When the wind is light, the swell is gone. If you’re a kiter, though? That strong cross-onshore wind on the 23rd, 24th, and 25th of July, with solid 6 ft to 8 ft waves and high energy, that setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than for paddling into anything clean.

There’s no standout day here. No hidden gem. Just a long wait for better conditions.

Rusty.

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