Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you – this forecast for Rabbit/Manana Island is a tough pill to swallow. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window, but it’s a long, quiet grind before anything even gets close to being worth a paddle. The water’s bang on average for the time of year at 79°, so no surprises there.

The first real chance of a wave doesn’t even show up until Thursday, July 24th, and even then it’s pretty grim. We’ve been sitting through a week of choppy, cross-onshore junk with swell heights barely scraping 5 ft and weak to moderate wave energy. The energy is low, with values like 131 (Thursday 16th) up to 322 (Sunday 19th), but it’s all wind-slop. The wind is hammering from the ENE, never letting up, so it’s a messy, lumpy scene for days.

Then, just when you think it’s all over, we get a few golden days rolling in from Tuesday, July 28th. The wind finally eases, and the swell direction from the ENE is a solid match for the optimum NNE. But here’s the kicker: the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. On the 28th, we’re looking at 10 ft of swell with a very long period of 14 seconds, and the combined energy goes through the roof – 3516 (Tuesday morning) and 3609 (Tuesday afternoon). That’s strong to very strong wave energy. Then Wednesday, July 29th, it gets even bigger – 12 ft to 13 ft, with the energy hitting 4314 and 4624. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a monster swell, and it’s only for experts. The wind is a gentle cross-shore, so it’ll be clean, but the size is intimidating. If you’re not an absolute charger, this is a day to watch from the shore.

The standout in this whole outlook is the morning of Wednesday, July 29th. We’ve got an 12 ft swell from the NE, a period of 13 seconds, and the wind is a gentle breeze from the ENE putting it cross-shore, which means the water will be clean with a slight cross-chop. The energy is very strong (4314). This is a proper groundswell, and the long period means it’ll be a heavy, powerful wave. For experienced surfers only, and the crowds are possible at Rabbit/Manana Island, but with this size, it might thin out the pack. The swell direction is a great match for the optimum. It’s the only true standout in the whole 16 days.

After that, the 30th and 31st bring a drop in size and the wind kicks back up, so the window closes fast. Overall, if you’re a beginner, give it a miss. For the experts, mark your calendar for the 29th, but don’t get your hopes up for anything else.

Rusty.

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