Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks. Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

It’s looking like a tough stretch for the next two weeks. The whole forecast is plagued by a persistent cross-onshore wind, mostly from the ENE, which is going to keep things lumpy and messy across the only break on offer. There’s a long gap at the start with no surf worth mentioning, so don’t bother paddling out until later in the run.

The first surf that shows up is on Friday, July 17th, but with a 4 ft swell from the east at a short 6 seconds, and a stiff 19 mph cross-onshore breeze, it’s just poor. The combined energy is weak (174), and it’s a full-on struggle. That same pattern holds through the weekend and into the next week. Swell heights bob around from 4 ft to 7 ft, but the period stays short, below 8 seconds, and the wind is relentless. The only real standout in the whole 16-day window is a promising pulse that arrives on Sunday, July 26th, and into Monday, July 27th. The swell direction swings to the east, and the period jumps to a very long 17 seconds, and then 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy values are huge – 1457 on the Sunday morning, and peaking at 2002 on Monday afternoon. That’s a lot of power in the water. However, the wind is still a fresh cross-onshore, so the surf will be lumpy and choppy. This is a classic case of the swell being too straight for a beach break, and with that size (5 ft to 6 ft) and long period, it’s going to be a fast, powerful, and tricky wave. Not one for beginners.

For the best bet, I’d have to point you to Rabbit/Manana Island on Monday, July 27th. The morning shows a 5 ft swell from the east at 16 seconds, with a moderate 16 mph cross-onshore wind. It’s not clean, but that’s the best wind of the period. The swell is serious (combined energy 1945), and if you’re an experienced surfer, the long period will give you some proper, deep-water lines. The water temperature is about average for the time of year at 79°F, so no wetsuit needed. The crowds are only sometimes a problem, so you might get a few waves to yourself. Just be aware that the long period swell is going to break fast and straight, so it’s a spot for the crew who know what they’re doing.

After that, the last week of the run drops off again. The swell sticks around, but the wind stays cross-onshore, and the period drops back to 11 seconds or less. By August 1st, the swell is down to 3 ft, and it’s just a choppy mess. Overall, a frustrating outlook. The Monday 27th is the only real window, and it’s a conditional one.

Rusty.

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