Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. Rabbit/Manana Island is the only game in town according to the charts, and it’s not shaping up to be much of a game at all.

The whole 16-day window is a tough slog. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf conditions kicking off from Tuesday, August 18th, with messy, lumpy, cross-shore and cross-onshore winds just ruining what little swell is out there. The energy is low to moderate, with readings in the 100-200 range (158) for the first few days, and the swell is short-period, around 6-8 seconds, so it’s just weak and choppy. Water temps are about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

We’re looking at a gap of poor surf right through to Friday, August 21st. On Friday morning, there’s a brief flicker of hope. The wind swings light and offshore from the SE at just 3 mph, and the water cleans up. The swell is tiny, only 2 ft from the NNE, with weak energy (93) and a short period of 6 seconds. It’s surfable but very ordinary. That’s the only window with clean conditions in the first week, and it’s marginal at best.

Then it’s back to the wind. From Saturday, August 22nd, right through the end of the month, the trades come howling back. The swell picks up, hitting 5 ft to 8 ft, with moderate to strong energy (213 to 651), but the wind is relentless – fresh to strong breezes from the ENE, all cross or cross-onshore. The wave comment is consistently “poor surf conditions,” with lumpy, messy, and choppy water. For a beach setup like this, it’s getting more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The swell is over 5 ft, so it’s getting too big for beginners, and by the 24th, it’s over 8 ft, so only for experts, but with that wind, even experts will struggle.

The second week doesn’t offer any relief. The pattern holds through the 1st and 2nd of September – more ENE wind, more cross-onshore chop, and the swell drops back to under 3 ft. Energy is low (144 to 119). There’s no standout session. The best you can say is that Friday, August 21st morning is the only time the wind gets out of the way, but it’s barely a ripple.

So, if you’re desperate, the Friday morning window is the pick. It’s clean, but tiny. Otherwise, this is a blank run. The area isn’t known for consistent surf, and this forecast shows why. Keep your eyes on the horizon, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

Read more