Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a 16-day window on the cards for Rabbit/Manana Island, but I’ll be honest with you – it’s a tough stretch. The wind is the main villain here, and it doesn’t let up. There’s a gap right at the start with no real surf to speak of until the first recommendation pops up.

Monday, 3rd August afternoon sees the first bit of swell, but it’s a write-off. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the ENE with a short 8-second period, and a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore wind from the NE. The water is sitting at 27°, which is about normal for this time of year. The combined energy is moderate (374), but it’s messy and lumpy – not worth paddling out for.

Tuesday, 4th August morning is the best we’ll see all week, and it’s still only a marginal call. The swell drops to 5ft, but the period stretches to a solid 11 seconds, which gives it some proper groundswell grunt. The wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-shore from the ENE, making for the cleanest conditions on offer. The combined energy is moderate (452). This is the one window where the offshore wind direction (S) in the guidance would really shine, and the swell is coming from the ENE, which is slightly off the optimum NNE, but it’s the best we’ve got. The break is fairly consistent, and it’s exposed, so it’ll pick up that energy. Crowds are possible here, so get out early if you can. After that, it’s a long, grim run.

From Tuesday afternoon right through to Monday, 18th August, it’s a desert. Every single session is flagged as poor. The wind stays locked in from the ENE, blowing cross-on or cross at 16 to 28 mph, turning any swell into a lumpy, choppy mess. Swell heights bounce around between 2ft and 4ft with short, weak periods, and even when it builds to 6ft or 7ft towards the second week, the wind is just too strong – fresh to strong breeze territory. The combined energy climbs from a weak 88 up to a moderate 703, but it’s all wasted on those horrible onshore conditions. For a beach-and-reef setup, this is looking more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers, honestly.

There’s a bit of a tease on Thursday, 14th August with a 8ft to 8ft swell from the ENE, but it’s accompanied by a 25 mph cross-onshore wind and a combined energy of 603 to 703. That’s a lot of energy, but it’s messy, and for most surfers, that size with that wind is just a washing machine. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not pretty.

The Standout: The only real window that’s worth a look is Tuesday, 4th August morning. It’s not a classic, but it’s the cleanest we get. The 5ft groundswell with that 11-second period and gentle cross-shore wind will give you the best chance of a clean wave. It’s a marginal call, but it’s the only one. Get it while you can.

Rusty.

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