Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s talk about Rabbit/Manana Island. It’s a bit of a rough patch ahead, I won’t lie. We’re looking at a solid run of onshore wind that’s going to churn things up for the better part of ten days. Water temp is right around 80°, pretty normal for this time of year.

Starting Monday the 31st of August, all the way through Friday the 4th of September, the wind is howling out of the ENE at 22 to 28 mph, all cross-onshore, making the ocean a lumpy, choppy mess. The swell is running 6 ft to 8 ft, but with that wind, the wave report is constantly “poor surf conditions.” The wave energy is moderate to strong, but it doesn’t matter – it’s a kite-surfing kind of day, not a paddle-surfing one.

Saturday the 5th sees the swell hit 8 ft with a very long 13-second period in the afternoon, pushing the energy up to 2091. But that cross-onshore wind is still blowing 19 mph, and it’s still poor. Plenty of power, but a nasty surface.

Sunday the 6th is almost the same – 8 ft swell, 13-second period, huge energy (1992), but the wind is straight cross and the wave comment is only “marginal.” Monday the 7th keeps the pattern: 8 ft to 10 ft swell, long period, but the wind turns onshore from the NNE at 22 mph. Still poor.

Tuesday the 8th of September is a real eye-opener. The swell is a massive 16 ft from the east, with an 11-second period and insane energy of 5204. The wind goes offshore and clean, which is usually perfect. But the wave comment says it’s too big for this break. That’s serious size – well over 8 ft – only for experts. In the afternoon it drops to 12 ft with a light offshore, but still too big for a fun session.

Wednesday the 9th calms down to 8 ft to 8 ft, but the wind is cross-shore and the wave comment is only “marginal.” Thursday the 10th through Saturday the 12th is more of the same onshore garbage.

Finally, a bright spot on Sunday the 13th of September. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore at just 6 mph, and the wave comment is “expect good surf conditions.” The swell is a clean 6 ft from the ENE with an 8-second period, and the energy is moderate (489). That’s the one to aim for. With light winds and clean faces, Rabbit/Manana Island will have some fun, shapey waves. It’s a fairly consistent break exposed to the NNE, and the swell is coming from close to that direction. Just expect some company – crowds are possible.

Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are okay but nothing to get excited about – the swell drops to 5 ft to 5 ft, with light cross-onshore wind. Surfable, but not the main event.

So, keep your eyes on Sunday the 13th of September. That’s your best chance for a clean session. The rest of the 16 days is mostly waiting for the wind to play nice.

Rusty.

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