Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a good look at the local surf picture.

The swell is gonna be pumping for a short window, but the wind is going to be the story for most of this 16-day stretch. We’ve got a big slug of easterly energy forecast to hit Rabbit/Manana Island right out of the gate Sunday morning. The combined energy is reading a hefty 2353 (moderate to strong wave energy), with a 13ft swell out of the east, period around 9 seconds. That’s a big, powerful wave. For an exposed spot like this, with the optimum direction coming from the NNE, that east swell is a bit angled, but the size will still make for a wild ride. Water temp is sitting at a balmy 80° and is about average for this time of year. Problem is, this is a serious, heavy wave at that size – well over 8ft, so this is for experts only.

Now, the bad news is the wind. That Sunday morning has a strong breeze out of the ESE at 25 mph, making it cross-offshore. It’ll be clean, but the raw power of that swell is the main event. By Sunday afternoon, the wind drops to 15 mph, but the swell drops too, to 8ft, and the conditions get flagged as marginal. That’s our one and only real shot.

From Sunday afternoon onwards, it’s a tough run. The wind swings to the ENE and stays there for days, blowing cross to cross-onshore at 15-25 mph. The surf quality gets the full red light "poor surf conditions" stamp for nearly every session. We’re looking at fresh breezes, lumpy cross-chop, and a 0/10 score for most of the forecast. The swell stays in the 3ft to 6ft range for days after the initial pulse, but it’s just not clean. The week of the 24th through the 29th sees the swell build back up, hitting 8ft to 10ft by the 29th and 30th, with combined energy hitting four-digit numbers like 1085 (strong wave energy) and 1232 (strong). But again, it’s all under a constant ENE cross-onshore breeze. The setup looks like it would be a lot more fun for kite surfing than paddle surfing during this period.

There’s a tiny glimmer on the very last day, Monday 31st, with a pulse of long-period groundswell (13 seconds) from the east, but it's only 4ft and the wind is still cross-onshore. The potential is there, but the timing isn't.

The Standout: Sunday morning, August 16th, at Rabbit/Manana Island. That’s your window. A big, powerful east swell – 13ft – with an offshore wind component. It’s a short window, and it's big and dangerous, but for the crew who can handle it, that’s the only real pulse of clean, heavy surf in this whole outlook.

Rusty.

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