Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the next couple of weeks.

Alright, look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a struggle. We’ve got a lot of wind and not a lot of clean lines. The water temp is sitting right around 80°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so at least it’s not a shock to the system.

The first real swell we see arrives on Friday, July 31, at Rabbit/Manana Island. But that wind is howling from the ENE at 25 mph, and it’s smashing the face right out of the gate. The swell is a short-period 6ft at 7 seconds from the east, and the combined energy is moderate (532). But honestly, with that strong cross-shore wind, it’s just a messy cross-chop. It’s not going to be a fun paddle.

Saturday, August 1, sees the swell jump up to 8ft, still short-period at 8 seconds, and the energy cranks up to strong (1051). That’s a lot of water moving, but the wind is still a strong cross-onshore breeze. For a spot that’s exposed, this is going to be a brutal, blown-out mess. Unless you’re an expert on a big board, this is a no-go. The conditions are just too lumpy.

That dirty easterly wind pattern sticks around all through the first week. The swell drops slowly, but the wind stays in the 15-25 mph range, keeping everything choppy and cross-onshore. By Wednesday, August 5, the swell is down to 5ft, but it’s still a moderate cross-shore mess. The combined energy is weak to moderate (329). It’s just not a fun prospect.

We get a bit of a lull from August 5th through the 11th, with the swell dipping below 4ft and the energy falling into the weak 100-200 range. The wind eases a bit, but it’s still a fresh breeze, just enough to ruin any chance of a clean face. There’s a gap of about 4-5 days with no real hope.

The only small glimmer comes late on Saturday, August 15. The wind is still a fresh cross-onshore, but the swell direction swings to the NNW and the period jumps to 13 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, which at a reef like Rabbit/Manana Island could actually wrap in and offer some shape. But the height is a tiny 1ft, and the combined energy is weak (143). It’s a tease. You’d be scratching for a ride.

So, what’s the best on offer? Honestly, there’s no standout. The biggest swell is on Saturday, August 1, with 8ft, but it’s for experts only and the wind is foul. If you’re desperate, the very end of the run on the 15th has the most interesting direction, but it’s tiny. This is looking like a lean spell for paddle surfing. The setup is more interesting for a kite.

Keep your eyes on the forecast. It can’t stay this bad forever.

Rusty.

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