Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Rabbit/Manana Island.

To be straight with you, the start of this 16-day run is a bit of a write-off. From Monday 20 July right through until Monday 27 July, the conditions are just plain ugly. We’ve got a persistent cross-onshore wind, mostly from the ENE, blowing at 15 mph to 25 mph, and the surf is coming in at 5 ft to 7 ft but with a short, weak period of 7 to 8 seconds. That’s a recipe for choppy, messy, lumpy lines. The combined swell energy is moderate at best, hitting 213 early on and climbing to 851 by the 25th, but with that wind, it’s all just white water. The water temperature is sitting at 80°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so nothing to write home about there.

Now, there’s a bit of a change from Tuesday 28 July into Wednesday 29 July. The swell picks up a bit more, with heights around 6 ft to 8 ft, and the period starts to stretch out to 12-13 seconds, which is a better groundswell. The combined energy gets strong too, hitting 1657. The wind, however, stays cross-onshore from the NE at 12 mph. It’s still not clean, but the model is calling it “marginal” rather than “poor”. That’s a small step up, but it’s not something I’d be rushing out for. The waves will be lumpy and wind-affected.

The only real standout in this whole window is a promising-looking pulse that arrives on Sunday 26 July and Monday 27 July. On the 26th, we’ve got a 5 ft swell from the E, but the period jumps to a very long 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is strong to very strong, hitting 1531. The problem is the wind – still cross-onshore from the NE at 19-22 mph. That’s going to ruin the surface. For a spot like Rabbit/Manana Island, which is exposed to the NNE, this long-period E swell is a bit of a mismatch. It’s not going to wrap in cleanly, and with that wind, it’s going to be a mess. Honestly, with that much swell and poor quality, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The swell is over 5 ft, so it’s too big for beginners, and the wind is just too strong for a good surf.

That’s about it. Nothing here is a clear winner. The best you could hope for is a very early paddle on the 28th or 29th when the wind is only 12 mph, but even then, it’s not going to be pretty. We’ve got a solid 8-day gap of poor to marginal surf before things even start to look slightly better, and even then, it’s not good.

Rusty.

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