Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a paddle. Let's get into it.

The outlook for the next 16 days is a tough one. We're looking at a solid block of nothing but poor surf conditions all the way through to the 22nd of August. That's a solid two weeks of onshore winds and messy, lumpy waves. The wind just won't let up, hammering us from the ENE and NE, keeping everything cross-onshore and choppy.

The only real spot on the map is Rabbit/Manana Island. It's an exposed spot that picks up swell from the NNE, but it's not doing us any favors right now. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

For the first week, from the 7th to the 14th of August, we're looking at weak, short-period windswell. The combined wave energy is mostly in the low to moderate range (81 to 345), with the swell height hovering between 3 ft and 6 ft. The problem is the wind. It's a constant fresh breeze, keeping things lumpy and cross-onshore. The swell period is a junk 5 to 8 seconds, so no real power behind it. Even when the swell bumps up to 6 ft on the 9th, the wind is on it, smashing any chance of a clean face. Honestly, for the first week, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Moving into the second week, from the 15th of August onward, the swell gets bigger but the wind gets stronger. We're seeing swell heights of 8 ft to 8 ft by the 16th, with the combined energy hitting strong levels (595 to 910). This is expert-level stuff, too big for beginners. But before you get excited, the wind is howling at 25 mph from the ENE, making it a strong cross-onshore mess. The period is still a short 8 seconds, so it's just a big, blown-out, lumpy mess. This is strictly for the kamikaze crew, and even then, it's more about survival than style.

The last few days of the forecast, from the 19th to the 22nd, the wind eases slightly to a moderate breeze, but the swell drops back to 5 ft to 6 ft and the period stays short. It's still cross-onshore and choppy. There's no standout here, no hidden gem. The entire 16-day window is a write-off for a decent surf.

So, there you have it. A long, flat, and windy run. It tends not to stay poor for long around here, so keep an eye on the forecasts, but for now, I'd be finding something else to do.

Rusty.

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