Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, ol' Rusty here. Let me tell you what's cookin' for Rabbit/Manana Island. Gotta be straight with you right from the start – this is a tough one to call. The whole 16-day stretch looks like a write-off for a decent paddle. We're staring down the barrel of a long, frustrating gap with nothing worthwhile on the cards.

The real kicker is the wind. It's coming from the ENE and NE pretty much the whole time, and that's a cross-on shore wind for this spot. Combined with a short, choppy swell period mostly around 7 to 8 seconds, it's creating poor, lumpy conditions. The wave energy is mostly weak, with values hopping between 198 and 296 for the first week, so there's just no power behind it. Even the water temp is about average for the time of year at 80°, but that's small comfort when the surf is a mess.

We do get a big shift in the second week. Around the 26th of July, the swell period jumps to a very long 16 seconds, and the energy skyrockets to 1111 on Sunday morning, hitting 1337 by the afternoon. That's a massive groundswell, but it's still coming from the east, and the wind is still a fresh cross-on shore. All that power and clean potential is completely ruined by the wind chop. The same story plays out on the 27th and 28th with energy holding strong in the 1000s, but the wind just won't let up. This is a setup that looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. You'd be fighting a losing battle on a regular board.

By the 30th of July, the swell drops off to 3 ft, and while the wind eases to a light breeze, the energy is down to 187. Just when you think it might clean up, the 31st of July shows a marginal morning with a moderate cross-shore chop, but it's still not enough to recommend. The first few days of August have energy come back up towards 500 but the cross-on wind is back in force.

So, the honest truth is, there's no standout. There's no best day. Throughout this entire 16-day window, every single morning and afternoon is rated as "poor surf conditions." The forecast holds no promise for a session you'd be happy to tell your mates about. When the swell is big, the wind is bad, and when the wind is light, the swell is tiny. It's a blank run, and for this area, it's one of those times where you just have to wait for the next forecast to change. Keep an eye on it, but for now, leave the boards at home.

Rusty.

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