Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a coffee, let’s talk about the next couple of weeks around Rabbit/Manana Island (Oahu). It’s a bit of a rough patch ahead, honestly. The wind is relentless, hammering from the ENE and NE most of the time, and it’s blowing cross to cross-on, which is keeping the surf all jumbled and messy. The swell is hanging around a modest 3 ft to 5 ft for most of the first week, but that onshore breeze is just gutting it. The wave energy is moderate, with readings in the 100s and low 200s early on, which tells you there’s not much grunt in the water. Don’t get your hopes up for Thursday the 16th or Friday the 17th – it’s poor surf, plain and simple.

The weekend of the 18th and 19th isn’t any better. The swell bumps up a little, getting to 5 ft on Sunday morning, and the energy climbs to 273, but it’s still all cross-on and lumpy. The wind is a fresh 19 mph, so the surface is going to be a mess. This is the kind of setup that’s more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing – the beach break will be blown out but rideable for a kite.

There’s a bit of a change from the 21st of July. The swell drops to 3 ft, but the period stretches right out to 15 seconds, and the energy jumps to 471. That’s a long-period groundswell, which usually means better shape, but it’s still coming in with a 19 mph cross-on wind. That’s a real shame because those long-period waves need clean conditions to really shine, especially at a beach break. The rain showers on Tuesday and Wednesday won’t help the mood either.

The second week gets interesting, but it’s a long-range call. From the 25th of July, the swell is still small, around 3 ft, but the period is a very long 16 seconds, and the energy is huge – 615 on the Saturday, climbing to 1250 by Sunday afternoon. That’s very strong wave energy. The problem is the wind is still cross-on from the NE at 19 mph. The only real chance for a surf comes right at the end of the forecast, on Wednesday the 29th of July. The morning shows a 6 ft swell from the ENE, period 11 seconds, and the wind drops to a gentle 9 mph, swinging cross-shore. The energy is a strong 860. This is the standout. The wave comment says “marginal surf forecast,” but for this spot, given the whole run of poor conditions, a 6 ft swell with a gentle cross-shore breeze is the best you’re going to get. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual to report. The break is fairly consistent, so it tends not to stay poor for long, but this stretch is a tough one.

Rusty.

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