Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch for Rabbit/Manana Island is a long, tough wait. The whole first week and a half is pretty much a write-off, with nothing worth paddling out for. It’s not until the 24th of September that we finally see a proper window.

The pattern for most of this outlook is dominated by persistent onshore and cross-shore winds, mainly out of the ENE and NE, keeping the ocean bumpy and chopped up. For days on end, we’re looking at moderate to fresh breezes and lumpy, messy surf. The water temp is sitting at 81°F with only a tiny anomaly of 0.4°F, so pretty much average for this time of year.

The first recommendation doesn’t come until Thursday the 24th of September. That morning and afternoon, a light offshore wind swings in from the S and SSE—that’s a game changer. Swell is a solid 6 ft from the ENE with a 9-second period. The combined energy is strong at 664, dropping to 628 in the afternoon, so there's plenty of push. This is the standout. With gentle offshore winds cleaning things up, expect some real nice, lined-up waves. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The break is fairly consistent and exposed to that NNE direction, so it’ll be working. Keep in mind, it can get crowded sometimes, so get out there early.

Before that, from the 11th right through the 23rd, it’s all “poor surf conditions” with cross-onshore winds and moderate to strong breezes. There’s a real gap of nearly two weeks of nothing worth chasing. A few days around the 17th and 18th see the swell kick up over 7 ft (up to 8 ft on the 17th morning), but it’s messy and blown out with 25 mph winds. That’s more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session.

After the 24th, the window closes fast. By the 25th morning, winds go back onshore and lumpy, and the quality drops right off again. So, really, it’s a one-day wonder. Make the most of that Thursday if you can.

Rusty out.

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