Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. Honestly, it’s a tough outlook for this region. We’ve got a full 16-day stretch ahead, but there’s not a single moment I’d recommend paddling out. The whole period is a write-off for quality surf.

Right from the get-go on Tuesday, July 7th, we’re dealing with a messy trade-wind pattern. The wind is hammering out of the ENE at a solid 25 mph, sitting cross-onshore and just tearing up any chance of a clean wave. Swell is 8 ft from the ENE with a short, weak period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is moderate at 611, but with that wind, it’s just a lumpy, blown-out mess. The water temperature is 79°, which is about average for the time of year, but you won’t be noticing that through the wind chill.

This same grim story carries on day after day. Wednesday and Thursday keep the same 25 mph ENE winds, with cross and cross-onshore conditions keeping the surface chopped. Swell sits around 7 ft to 7 ft with a period of just 7 seconds. The energy stays moderate, between 417 and 498, but it’s all useless for surfing.

Friday and Saturday don’t let up. Still strong ENE winds around 22-25 mph, still cross-onshore. Swells hover around 7 ft to 7 ft, period at 7 seconds. The break, Rabbit/Manana Island, is exposed to this swell direction, and the wind is just ruining any chance of shape. The energy dips a little but it’s still moderate.

The pattern finally weakens slightly heading into the second week. By Tuesday, July 14th, the wind drops to 19 mph, but it’s still cross-onshore. Swell drops to 6 ft and the period stays a weak 7 seconds. Combined energy falls to 281. It’s poor surf, plain and simple.

There is a brief moment around July 18th where the swell period jumps to 11 seconds on Saturday morning, with a 4 ft swell from the E, and combined energy hits 446. But that wind is still a fresh 22 mph cross-onshore, lumpy and messy. No good.

The last few days of the forecast, from July 19th to 22nd, see a bit more size. Swells hit 8 ft from the E and ENE, with periods around 8 seconds. Combined energy peaks at 924 on the 19th. That’s strong wave energy, but it’s all for nothing with the wind locked in onshore. At 8 ft, this is really only for experts anyway, but with the conditions as they are, it’s a complete no-go for a clean ride. Frankly, with that much swell, poor surf quality, and strong onshore wind over a beach setup, this looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

It's a brutal run. A solid 16 days of nothing worth getting wet for. No standouts, no hidden gems. Just trade winds and chop. On the bright side, the break is fairly consistent, so this kind of blank run isn’t normal. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye out, but for now... stay home.

Rusty.

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