Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle at Rabbit/Manana Island. The wind is stuck in that cross-onshore groove for days on end, and the swell is mostly short-period, wind-driven junk. We’re looking at a long, frustrating stretch where the lineup is going to be lumpy and messy, not the kind of place you want to be fighting chop for a so-so wave.

Starting off this Saturday morning, the 8th, we have a clear sky but a fresh 35 km/h cross-onshore breeze, with a 4ft ENE swell at a weak 6 seconds. The energy is weak, reading 173, and the water is warm – 80°F, which is about average for this time of year. It’s just poor. That pattern sticks with us through the weekend and into the start of next week. The swell bumps up slightly to 5ft on Sunday and Monday, but the wind stays fresh and cross-onshore, and the period is stuck at 7-8 seconds. It’s all surface chop, no push, no shape. The energy does climb into the low 300s by Monday, so there’s a bit more juice, but it’s not doing us any favors.

Tuesday sees the wind back it off a touch to a cross-shore 30 km/h, but it’s still lumpy with a cross-chop. The swell drops a bit to 5ft, period 7 seconds, energy around 219. Still no good. Wednesday and Thursday are more of the same, with the wind picking up to a strong 40-45 km/h on Thursday, 13th, and the swell pushing 6ft. That’s when things start to get properly blown out. The energy is now moderate at 271-300, but it’s all getting messed up by the breeze.

Then comes the big one. Friday the 14th sees the wind crank up to a near gale at 50 km/h, and the swell jumps to 8ft in the morning, up to 8ft by the afternoon. The energy is strong at 773 and then 976. It’s all cross-onshore and completely blown out. Not a paddle session, that’s for sure. This looks way more interesting for kite surfing than surfing.

Now, here’s the one standout in the whole window, and it’s a wild one. Saturday the 15th, the swell spikes to a massive 30ft from the E with a very long 14-second period from a groundswell. The energy is off the charts at 27,490. But here’s the catch – it’s way, way too big for this break. The guidance is clear: wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big. This is expert-only territory, and honestly, at 30ft, likely no one is going out. It’s a spectacle, not a surf. The wind does ease to 25 km/h, but that doesn’t matter when the swell is that giant. This is the one you might watch from the cliffs, not from your board.

After that monster, Sunday the 16th drops right back off to a tiny 2ft NE swell with a 12-second period, but the wind is back up to 25-35 km/h cross-onshore. Energy is weak at 114. The rest of the second week is a monotonous run of poor surf. Monday through Thursday all feature 4ft to 6ft of short-period ENE swell, with fresh cross-onshore winds in the 30-35 km/h range. Occasionally, on Wednesday the 19th, we get a hint of relief – a lighter 15 km/h cross-offshore breeze with a clean surface, but the swell is only 4ft at 6 seconds, which gives us surfable but very ordinary waves. It’s the closest thing to a surf, but it’s not worth getting excited about.

We finish the period on the 22nd and 23rd with the same story: moderate to fresh cross-onshore winds, 5ft to 6ft of short-period ENE swell, and choppy, lumpy conditions. The energy stays in the 250-315 range. It’s a blank run, plain and simple. The only real highlight is that massive swell on the 15th, but that’s a “do not surf” situation if I’ve ever seen one.

So, there it is. A long, desperate stretch with only one extreme, unrideable standout. Hang tight, keep the board in the car, and wait for the wind to swing around. The forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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