Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it.

We’re looking at a pretty grim stretch for Rabbit/Manana Island. This East-facing, exposed spot wants swell from the NNE to really light up, but we’re getting hammered by a constant ENE wind that just won’t let up. The outlook is a long, frustrating wait for any kind of decent session.

The entire first week is a write-off. From Friday the 24th of July right through to the end of the month, it’s all cross-onshore winds and messy, lumpy conditions. The combined energy is moderate, hovering between 394 and 1328, but it’s all wasted with that wind. The swell is a mix of short-period ENE windswell, mostly around 6ft to 7ft, but it’s just a bumpy, blown-out mess. No scores here, just a lot of frustration.

We get a glimmer of something on Wednesday the 29th of July. The swell jumps up significantly, with a 12ft ENE swell hitting in the morning (combined energy 3034 – strong wave energy). The wind is a moderate cross-onshore, but the note says it’s too big for this break. On Wednesday afternoon, the wind shifts to a cross-offshore from the SE and the waves are described as clean, but the swell is still a powerful 10ft. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s a risky call.

After that, it’s back to the grind. A long gap of over a week of poor to marginal conditions. From Thursday the 30th of July through to Saturday the 8th of August, we’re stuck with fresh to strong breezes, cross-onshore winds, and lumpy, choppy surf. The combined energy drops back to moderate levels. The one bright spot – if you can call it that – is on Friday the 7th of August. The swell is a clean 6ft from the ENE with a 10-second period, and the wind is a moderate cross-shore. The report says “marginal surf forecast,” but it’s the only time in the whole window that’s not a complete zero. The water temperature anomaly is not mentioned, but we can expect it’s about average for the time of year.

Honestly, this is a tough run. The biggest takeaway is that the wind is the enemy for almost the entire 16 days. If you’re a kiter, the strong cross-shore winds and solid swell on the 29th and 30th of July might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, patience is the only real option. Hang in there, forecasts can change.

Rusty.

Read more