Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be real – this is a tough look for the next couple of weeks at Rabbit/Manana Island. The forecast is a long, drawn-out case of wind-ruined surf, and there's not a single standout day in the whole 16-day window. You’ll want to sit tight.

We start on Thursday, 23rd July, and right out of the gate we’ve got a strong cross-shore wind smashing up a 7ft swell from the ENE at a short, weak period of 7 seconds. The combined energy is moderate at 405, but it’s all messy cross-chop. That’s the story for the rest of July. Friday through to Wednesday the 29th is more of the same – fresh to strong cross-onshore winds keeping the wave face lumpy and poor. The swell wobbles between 5ft and 7ft, but the quality is zero.

There is a brief flicker of hope on the morning of Thursday, 30th July. The wind swings light from the SE, going cross-offshore, and the ratings finally show "clean" conditions. It's only a 4ft ENE swell though, with a moderate combined energy reading of 294. It’s surfable, but it’s hardly going to blow your mind. The break can be inconsistent, and it’s not uncommon to see a crowd here sometimes, so don’t expect an empty lineup. Morning is your best bet; the afternoon turns to a risk of thunderstorms and the swell drops to 3ft.

Don’t get excited for the first week of August, either. From Friday 31st July right through to Wednesday 5th August, it’s back to the grind: 18 to 28 mph cross-onshore winds, messy surf, and those ENE swells pushing through at poor quality. On Monday 3rd August, we see a long-period groundswell arrive (16 seconds) at 3ft, but that fresh cross-onshore wind ruins any chance of form. That kind of period is best spent finding a point or reef break, not fighting the wind here.

By Thursday 6th August, the wind drops to a moderate 12 mph cross-shore, and the swell is 5ft from the ENE at 10 seconds, but the report still says "marginal". It’s a slight improvement, but nothing to plan a session around.

Bottom line: there are no good options in this 16-day window. The wind just won’t let up. Rabbit/Manana Island is exposed and takes that ENE wind straight on. For strong winds and messy, lumpy waves like this, this setup honestly looks more suited to kite surfing than paddle surfing. Keep an eye on the forecast – when the trades ease, it can turn around fast. But for now, leave the boards on the rack.

Rusty.

Read more