Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. The outlook for Rabbit/Manana Island over the next 16 days is a tough one to swallow. Honestly, there’s not a single moment in the entire forecast that I’d point to and say, “Yeah, get out there.” The wind is the main culprit – it’s almost always coming from the ENE, and it’s relentless. The result is a whole lot of messy, cross-onshore slop that just won’t clean up. The first solid week is a total write-off. From Saturday 11th July all the way through to the following Saturday 18th July, you’re looking at a frustrating stretch of poor surf conditions. The wind stays strong, between 18 and 25 mph, constantly pushing that 5 ft to 7 ft swell into a lumpy, cross-onshore chop. The energy is there, for sure – the combined energy hits 516 on Sunday 12th, which is moderate, but it’s all raw, short-period stuff (7-8 seconds) with no shape to it. This is more of a kite surfer’s playground than a paddle surfer’s wave. The water temp is a pretty standard 79°, which is about average for the time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re getting frustrated.

Then we get into a second week with a bit of a shift, but it’s still not what we’re looking for. From Monday 20th July, the swell direction starts to swing more easterly, and the period gets interesting. You’ll see a long-period pulse of 18 seconds on Monday afternoon, with a combined energy of 596, and then Tuesday 21st July keeps that energy with a 16-second swell (651 energy). That’s a proper groundswell. But the problem remains the wind. It’s still cross-on from the ENE at 18-22 mph, so those long, beautiful lines are getting chopped up before they ever stand up. The wave comment is still “poor surf conditions.” For a spot like this, which is an exposed reef/island setup, that longer period could be magic if the wind was offshore, but it’s not. The swell is finally matching the optimum from the NNE on Tuesday 14th July, but the wind is still cross-on. It’s just a frustrating pattern. If you’re a beginner, the swell is mostly under 5 ft in the second week, so it’s not too big, but the wind makes it unmanageable.

The only real standout, if you can call it that, is that the long-period swell (over 15 seconds) on Monday 20th and Tuesday 21st July has real energy. But it’s a total “what if” scenario. If the wind dropped, it would be a dream. As it stands, it’s just a tease. The forecast for the second week is a little more promising than the first, but it’s a long way out, so don’t get your hopes up. If you’re desperate, keep an eye on it, but for the next 16 days, Rabbit/Manana Island is a hard pass. Save your energy.

Rusty.

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