Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what Rabbit/Manana Island has in store for the next couple of weeks.

The short story is it’s a bit of a slow burn. We’re looking at a lot of cross-shore and cross-onshore wind, mostly from the ENE and NE, which is going to put a chop on the surface for days on end. The water temp is right around 81°, which is dead average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real chance to get wet is the Monday afternoon of the 7th of September. Swell is a clean 5ft from the East, with a moderate cross-offshore breeze from the ESE at 12 mph. The combined energy is moderate at 1032, and the conditions are described as clean. It’s the first decent window, but not a standout.

Tuesday the 8th is where things get a bit more interesting. The morning kicks off with a fresh offshore from the SSE at 18 mph, and a 6ft ENE swell at 11 seconds. That’s a solid, clean wave with moderate energy (901). The afternoon cleans up even more, with a lighter offshore breeze at 12 mph, and a 6ft ENE swell. The energy is still moderate (809), and the word is “clean.” That Tuesday afternoon is the best on offer in the first week—clean, offshore, solid waist-to-chest high waves. If you’ve got a window, that’s your session.

After that, we hit a long dry spell. From Wednesday the 9th right through to the 17th of September, it’s a real struggle. The wind stays cross or cross-onshore, and the conditions are poor or marginal. The swell drops off and gets short-period, and the energy values are mostly in the 200-400 range, which is weak. A lot of choppy, lumpy, messy surf. Not worth paddling out for.

Then, just when you think it’s over, the 18th of September (Friday afternoon) throws a wildcard. The wind switches to a light cross-offshore from the SE at 6 mph, and we’ve got a 7ft East swell at 8 seconds. The combined energy is moderate at 522. The report says “clean” and “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the standout of the whole outlook. It’s a week and a half away, so take it with a grain of salt, but if this holds, that Friday afternoon will be the pick of the crop. The swell is a bit short-period, but with that light wind and clean conditions, Rabbit/Manana should be fun.

The best bet: Tuesday the 8th (afternoon) for consistency and clean offshore wind, and the big one to watch is Friday the 18th (afternoon) – that’s the one to keep your eye on if the forecast firms up.

Rusty.

Read more