Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days for Rabbit/Manana Island are a real battle. The wind is almost never on our side, and the surf quality is stubbornly poor. There’s no standout session, no magic window. It’s a tough run.

We start off on Tuesday, 21 July with a clear sky but a cross-shore breeze at 12 mph swinging cross-on. Swell is a weak 5 ft from the ENE at a short, choppy 7 seconds. The water’s sitting at 80°, which is about average for this time of year. The combined wave energy is a moderate 218, but the conditions are just messy. That afternoon, the wind picks up to 16 mph and goes cross-on, making it worse.

Wednesday 22 July is more of the same – winds are a fresh 22 mph, cross-shore in the morning, cross-on in the arvo. Swell bumps up slightly to 5 ft, but the period is still a short 7 seconds, giving us a lumpy, cross-chop. Energy climbs to 309, but it’s not doing us any favours.

Thursday 23 July sees the swell hit 7 ft, but it’s still that short-period ENE windswell. The wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore, so the surface is lumpy and messy. 360 energy, but it’s a write-off.

Friday 24 July brings rain showers in the morning and a strong breeze at 25 mph. The cross-shore wind is carving the surface up. Swell is 6 ft, energy 378, but it’s horrible.

Saturday 25 July looks similar – 7 ft swell, ENE, 8-second period, and a fresh cross-on wind. Energy hits 595, but it’s all wind-chop.

Sunday 26 July offers a tease: the swell drops to 4 ft, but the period stretches to a very long 16 seconds – that’s real groundswell. The energy skyrockets to 1119, which is strong. But the wind is still a fresh 19 mph cross-on from the NE, so it’s a lumpy, bumpy mess. That long-period swell needs a clean face, and it’s not getting it here.

Monday 27 July is the only day that gets a marginal score. Morning sees a 5 ft swell from the E with a 14-second period, and the wind is cross-shore at 19 mph. Energy is 1178. It’s still lumpy, but maybe, just maybe, there’s a half-decent wave in there if you’re desperate. The afternoon goes back to cross-on.

The rest of the run is a blur of fresh to strong cross-on winds, lumpy seas, and poor surf. From 28 July through to 5 August, every session is rated poor. The swell direction stays stubbornly ENE or NE, never matching the break’s optimum NNE direction. The wind never gives us a break.

There’s a brief moment on the morning of Thursday 30 July where the wind drops to a light 6 mph, but it’s still cross-on, and the swell is 6 ft from the ENE with a 10-second period. Energy is 755. Still marginal, still not worth paddling out for.

The long-range bits in the second week – like the 7 ft ENE swell on 4 August with a 13-second period and 1376 energy – are just more of the same: cross-on wind ruining the surface.

Honestly, if you’re a kite surfer, the strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy conditions might be your thing. For paddle surfing, it’s a long, bleak stretch. The only upside is that Rabbit/Manana Island is naturally exposed and fairly consistent, so it won’t stay this bad forever. Forecasts can change. But right now, I’d save your energy.

Rusty.

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