Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, and let’s talk about O‘ahu’s east side, because the next 16 days are a real mixed bag. We’ve got a window of decent surf coming, but you’ll have to be patient and pick your moments. The water is sitting right around 80°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprise there.

The first real chance to get wet that’s worth talking about lands on Wednesday, July 29th. That Tuesday beforehand is a write-off – strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy, messy surf. But Wednesday morning? That’s the standout of the whole run. At Rabbit/Manana Island, we’ll see a 7ft swell rolling in from the ENE, with a period around 10 seconds. The energy is moderate (821), but the real story is the wind: glassy, dead calm. That means clean, smooth faces. The afternoon cleans up too, with a light cross-offshore breeze and a drop to 6ft, making it a good, clean session. The swell direction (ENE) is a touch off the optimum NNE, but with that glass, it’s the best on offer.

Thursday, July 30th, the wind swings back to a moderate cross-shore, chop comes in, and the swell drops to 5ft with a short period of 8 seconds. It’s not great. Then Friday through the end of the first week and into the second week is a long, frustrating stretch. From July 31st all the way through to August 10th, we’re stuck with persistent ENE winds, mostly fresh to strong breezes, and a mix of cross-shore and cross-onshore conditions. The surf size fluctuates between 5ft and 8ft, but it’s all messy, lumpy, and choppy. The energy values climb into the strong range (up to 983), but with that wind, it’s just not surfable. There’s a short-period swell from ENE that’s mostly windswell, and it’s just going to be a battle. Honestly, for a beach-and-reef setup like this, with that much wind and chop, it’s looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The only other flicker of hope comes on Tuesday, August 11th. That’s a full two weeks out, so treat it as promising but not a guarantee. The morning shows a clean 5ft NE swell, with a light cross-offshore breeze out of the ESE. The period is 9 seconds, so it’s average, but clean conditions are clean conditions. The afternoon though, the wind swings onshore and light rain moves in, so it’s a half-day window at best.

So, the long and short of it: the best on offer is that Wednesday the 29th. Get it while the glass is good. After that, you’re waiting until August 11th for another clean shot, and that’s a long, windy gap. Crowds at Rabbit/Manana Island can be a problem sometimes, but on a Wednesday with that forecast, you might just get lucky. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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