Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Rabbit/Manana Island.

Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – the next week and a half is looking pretty grim. We’ve got a lot of windy, lumpy, cross-onshore conditions that are just gonna mess up the surface. The water is a warm 81°F, which is about average for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick wetsuit, but you’ll be fighting the wind.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Monday, September 7th in the afternoon. We’ve got a 7ft ENE swell rolling in with a 13-second period, and the wind finally swings offshore from the SE. That’s a clean setup, and the wave energy is strong (1497). It’s a short window, but if you can get out there, it’s your best bet for a decent session.

Tuesday, September 8th is the standout of the whole run. The morning shows a 7ft ENE swell with a 11-second period and a solid offshore wind from the S, giving you clean waves. The energy is moderate (935). But the afternoon is where it’s at: the swell drops a touch to 6ft, the wind lightens to a gentle 9 mph offshore from the S, and the energy is still a solid 761. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions,” and honestly, I’d be on it. This is the pick of the forecast.

After that, it’s back to the struggle. From Wednesday the 9th right through until the 18th, it’s a brutal stretch of cross-onshore winds and choppy, lumpy surf. The swell sticks around, bouncing between 5ft and 8ft, but the wind is just relentless from the ENE, making a mess of everything. The period drops to 6-8 seconds, so it’s short-period windswell, not the good stuff. A lot of those days score a zero, so don’t bother.

There’s a tiny flicker of hope on Saturday, September 19th – the wind drops to a light 6 mph cross-shore, and the swell is a solid 7ft from the ENE with a 9-second period. The energy is moderate (749). It’s still a bit choppy with the light cross-shore wind, but it’s the best thing we’ve seen in over a week. It’s not a standout, but it’s a chance to get wet.

If you’re an intermediate surfer, the Tuesday session is your target. The 7ft to 6ft range is manageable, but those clean offshore winds will make it feel way better. The waves are breaking at a point/reef setup, so that long-period groundswell energy will actually be well-shaped, not just closing out. The crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have some company, but it’s not a circus.

Bottom line: the first week is a write-off for the most part. Tuesday, September 8th afternoon is the one to circle. After that, it’s a long dry spell until the 19th, but even that’s just a “maybe” session. The forecast can change, so keep an eye on the wind.

Rusty.

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