Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook for Rabbit/Manana Island is a tough one. We’ve got a solid 16-day window in front of us, but the ocean is not playing nice. The whole run is plagued by strong, onshore and cross-shore winds out of the ENE, keeping the surface lumpy, choppy, and just plain messy. There’s no clean, glassy dawn patrol in sight at this spot. The swell is mostly in the 6 ft to 7 ft range from the ENE, with a short, weak period of 7 to 8 seconds, so the waves are going to be soft and crumbly. The combined wave energy sits in the moderate range (values between 300 and 500), but it’s all for nothing with that wind.

The water temperature is sitting at a warm 79°, which is pretty much average for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit.

The only glimmer of something different comes in the second week. On July 21st, Tuesday afternoon, the swell direction shifts to the NE and drops to 3 ft, but the period jumps to a very long 17 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, but the combined energy is still a strong 899. The problem is the wind is still a cross-onshore offshore breeze at 16 mph, so it’ll be choppy.

Then on July 22nd, Wednesday morning, we see a 4 ft easterly swell with a long 15-second period, and the wind is a cross-shore, still lumpy. The energy is still high at 781. While these long-period swells can bring some shape, at a beach break like Rabbit/Manana, they can often just break too straight. The wind is just never clean enough to call it a standout.

The biggest swell of the window hits on July 18th, with 10 ft ENE swell. That’s strictly for experts only, and with the wind howling cross-shore, the setup is a washing machine. That kind of energy (1245-1464) with that wind is more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer – honestly, it’s going to be a mess.

So, what’s the pick? Honestly, there are no true standouts. If I had to choose, the July 21st and 22nd period offers the best potential, purely because of the longer period swells. The July 22nd morning has a 4 ft swell from the east with a 15-second period. The wind is a cross-shore, so it’s not clean, but it’s the least terrible option. The crowd factor is "sometimes" here, so you might share it, but given the conditions, it probably won’t be packed.

Overall, it’s a long stretch of poor surf. Keep your expectations low and your wax soft.

Rusty.

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