Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

Looks like we're in for a long, frustrating stretch, my friends. Don't get your hopes up for the first week and a half – it's a real battle to find anything clean. For the first eleven days, from Saturday the 18th right through to Tuesday the 29th of July, the surf is just a mess. The wind is hammering in from the ENE, mostly cross or cross-onshore, and it's blowing a gale, 16 to 25 mph. The swell is a short, choppy 4ft to 7ft, and the energy is surprisingly weak to moderate for that size, with the combined energy sitting between 191 and 638. That ENE wind is the exact opposite of the offshore direction this spot needs, so every day is a write-off. It's a real brutal stretch of onshore slop.

The only break on the radar is Rabbit/Manana Island. It's an exposed spot, and it's fairly consistent, but that doesn't help when the wind is wrong. The water temp is about 80°F, which is a perfectly normal 0.4°F anomaly for this time of year—nothing to write home about there.

Now, here's where it gets interesting, but also dangerous. The forecast for Wednesday the 30th of July shows a *massive* change. The swell direction shifts to the east, with a very long period of 11 to 14 seconds. The combined energy skyrockets – 6259 on Thursday morning, and a whopping 10028 on Wednesday afternoon. This is serious, groundswell energy. The break is a point, reef, or river-type setup, which is perfect for this kind of long-period swell, so the shape could be unreal. The wind also looks epic on Thursday the 30th, with a light NNE breeze at 6 mph, blowing directly offshore. It's predicted to be glassy and clean. But here's the catch: the swell hits 16ft on Thursday morning. That's a monster. It's explicitly stated that the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is expert-only, life-threatening territory. The wave energy is off the charts. For the pro crew only.

After that, the swell drops back down to the 6ft to 8ft range on Friday the 31st and into the weekend, but the wind comes back around to the ENE, and it's all cross-on slop again. The combined energy drops to 662, and the period shortens back to 8 seconds. A couple of morning sessions on the 31st might have a slight cross-chop, but it's a marginal call at best.

So, to be honest, the one standout is the offshore glass on Thursday the 30th of July, but it's a tsunami-sized swell. For the average surfer, there's nothing to recommend in this entire 16-day window. The whole run is mucked up by wind and, for one day, by sheer size. It's a “check the cameras and wait” kind of outlook.

Rusty.

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