Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the cards for this stretch.

Honestly, it's a tough outlook for Rabbit/Manana Island. For the first two weeks, we are locked into a relentless ENE trade wind pattern, and that wind is just going to ruin the waves. We're looking at a run of poor surf quality that stretches from Saturday, August 29th right through Thursday, September 10th. That's nearly two weeks of no recommendations—a real blank run. The water temp is sitting about average for the time of year at a warm 81° on the Saturday morning, but you won't want to be out there to enjoy it. The combined swell energy builds from a moderate 345 in that first weekend all the way up to a very strong 1357 by Tuesday the 8th of September, but none of that matters because it's all cross-onshore and messy. For a beach setup like this, the conditions are actually looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for that whole period.

Finally, things look set to change. On Friday, September 11th, we get a shift. The wind swings around to a SSE cross-off, dropping to 12 mph, and the water turns clean. The swell is still a solid 10 ft from the ENE with a moderate period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy is pumping hard at 1099. The catch is, that wave height is over 8 ft and a bit much for the average surfer here—this is expert territory. It's the first real sign of life we've had, so if you're skilled and hungry, that Friday morning session could be the standout of the entire forecast, but it's for the experienced crew only.

The weekend of the 12th and 13th looks much more user-friendly. The swell drops right down to 5 ft on Saturday morning with a fresh offshore wind from the South at 22 mph, and the waves are clean. Saturday afternoon gets even better with a moderate offshore from the SSW at 12 mph and a 6 ft swell. By Sunday the 13th, it's light winds and offshore again, with the swell down to 4 ft. These are much better sizes for an intermediate surfer, but the energy is only moderate (292 on Sunday morning), so don't expect any bombs. That Saturday afternoon looks like the best all-rounder for the less experienced crew, with clean conditions and a manageable wave.

So, to sum it up: the first two weeks are a write-off unless you're on a kite. The true standout for the big-wave chargers is Friday morning, September 11th. For everyone else, the best bet is Saturday afternoon, September 12th, when everything lines up cleaner and smaller.

Rusty.

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