Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight up: the next couple of weeks are gonna test your patience. Rabbit/Manana Island is the only spot in the mix, and for the first nine days, the wind just won’t play nice. We’ve got a long stretch of messy, cross-onshore conditions that are going to chop everything up. The water temperature is sitting at 81°, which is about average for this time of year.

From August 23rd through to the 31st, it’s a write-off for paddle surfing. The wind is pumping from the NE and ENE at 18 to 25 mph, and the swell is mostly short-period windslop (6 to 7 seconds). Even though there’s some moderate wave energy kicking around (361 to 358 on the energy scale), it’s just poor surf – lumpy, cross-chop, and messy. You’d be better off doing something else.

There is a glimmer on the 31st of August morning when the swell drops right off to 2ft, and the period jumps to a longer 12 seconds. This is a groundswell pulse, but the wind is still a fresh cross-onshore, so it’ll be lumpy. Not worth a paddle.

The first real shift comes on Tuesday, September 1st. The wind eases to a moderate breeze around 15 mph from the NE, still cross-onshore, but the swell picks up to 5ft with a 10-second period. The energy jumps to 452, which is moderate. It’s still choppy, but the quality is marginally better. This is the start of something.

Then, the standout window arrives on Sunday, September 6th. This is the one to circle on your calendar. The swell jumps to 8ft out of the NE with a very long 11-second period. The energy spikes hard to 1539 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind is down to a moderate 12 mph from the ENE, which is cross-shore. Now, for a spot like Rabbit/Manana Island that’s exposed to NNE, an 8ft NE groundswell will be a lot of power. This is expert-level size, and the long period means the waves will have real punch and shape, but at a beach setup, it might break a bit straight. The wind is the catch: it’s cross-shore, not offshore, so it won’t be glassy perfection, but it’ll be a damn sight better than anything else in this outlook. Crowds are possible here sometimes, so expect company. This is the best on offer: Sunday the 6th morning.

After that, Monday the 7th of September sees the swell drop back to 5ft, the wind goes light from the NNE at just 6 mph, but it’s still cross-onshore. Energy is solid, but the conditions only rate as marginal. It’s a letdown after the previous day.

So, to sum it up: don’t even bother until September 1st. The clear standout is September 6th for the biggest, most powerful swell of the period, but it’s for experienced surfers only. The rest is just waiting for the wind to shut up.

Rusty.

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