Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a seat, ‘cause I gotta be straight with you on this one. We’re looking at a sixteen-day window for Rabbit/Manana Island, and honestly, it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is pretty much a long, drawn-out run of messy, windy, and lumpy conditions. There’s a proper gap here with no real surf on offer. The first week is a total write-off, and even beyond that, it’s a scramble to find anything decent.

The water temperature is sitting right on 81°, which is bang on average for the time of year, so at least the water’s not going to shock you.

We start from the 1st of September right through to the 8th, and it’s rough. The wind is howling from the NE and ENE, mostly cross-onshore, with speeds of 19 mph up to 28 mph. The swell is there, between 6 ft and 8 ft, with a short, weak period of 7-8 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (412-1636). But it’s all blown out. This is a setup that looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, honestly. The 5th and 6th of September see a bump in energy, with a 13-second period and energy readings over 1472, but the wind is still a fresh cross-onshore, ruining any real shape. It’s a frustrating tease.

The only glimmer of hope, and I mean the only one, comes around the 7th and 8th of September. On Monday the 7th, the wind finally drops to a gentle breeze from the ENE at 9 mph, going cross-shore. The swell is still a solid 7 ft to 7 ft from the E with a long 13-second period, and the energy is strong (1295-1538). This is a long-period groundswell, which at a beach break can break a bit straight, but the lighter wind means the surface might be okay. The 8th of September is similar, with a light breeze from the E at 6 mph and a 6 ft to 7 ft swell. The combined energy is still high (829-1202). These two days are the only ones that break the “poor” barrier, and they’re only marginal. The crowd profile isn’t mentioned as a positive here, but given how rare a window is, you can bet it’ll have company.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. The 9th through the 16th is a mix of onshore winds, smaller choppy swell, and very low energy. The 14th and 15th have a tiny bit of hope with a 4 ft to 4 ft swell and gentler wind, but the energy is weak and the period is short. It’s just not worth getting excited about.

So, the standout? The only window worth paddling out for is the 7th and 8th of September. It’s not a classic, but it’s the best we’ve got. The wind is lighter, the swell is chunky and has some real power behind it. Just don’t expect perfect, clean walls. It’s a case of making the most of what’s there.

Rusty.

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