Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight up about what we're looking at for the next couple of weeks. The forecast is pretty grim right from the jump and doesn’t let up. There isn’t a single day with decent enough conditions to paddle out at Rabbit/Manana Island. We're looking at a full 16-day blank. Yep, you heard that right.

The main issue is a relentless, strong cross-shore to cross-onshore wind out of the ENE, blowing at 18 to 25 mph almost non-stop. That turns any potential swell into a mess of lumpy, cross-chop. Even when there’s a bit of size – like 7ft on Saturday the 11th – the wind is just too strong and from the wrong direction to make it surfable. It’s just "poor surf conditions" straight down the line.

The water temp is sitting at 79°F with a tiny anomaly of 0.4°F, so nothing unusual there for this time of year, but you wouldn't want to be out in it anyway with those winds.

Now, things get a little interesting way out there. By the 21st of July, we start seeing some serious energy on the cards. The combined energy jumps way up to 858, and the period stretches out to a very long 18 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell. The direction shifts to E and NE, and the height drops back to 3ft to 4ft. That longer period with smaller height can mean clean lines, but the problem is that ENE cross-on wind is still there blowing at 18 mph. It’s still going to be lumpy.

This spot is exposed to NNE, and the optimum swell direction is from NNE. The swell we get on the 21st and 22nd is from the E and NE, so it’s close but not a perfect match. Because it's a long-period groundswell, it might wrap in a little better than the short-period junk we've been seeing. But that wind... it's a heartbreaker. For now, all we can do is watch the charts and hope the wind eases. A blank run like this is a real downer for the area, but forecasts can change. Keep an eye on it for that last week.

Rusty.

Read more