Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming down the pipe for Rabbit/Manana Island.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – this 16-day window is looking like a tough one. The overall pattern is dominated by a consistent onshore flow. For the most part, we're looking at cross-onshore winds and choppy, lumpy conditions. There's one brief window that stands out, but it's a bit of a wild card.

Starting off on Friday the 14th, the surf is already up but it’s a mess. We've got ENE swell at 7 ft, with a short 8-second period and a fresh cross-onshore wind at 22 mph. The combined energy is moderate (513) but the quality is just not there. As we go into the weekend, things get even bigger and more blown out. Saturday sees a 10 ft east swell with near gale-force winds at 31 mph, and the energy jumps to over 1300. Sunday morning is worse, with a 13 ft east swell and a strong cross-shore wind. The energy is pumping at 2800, but it’s all for nothing – it's a total washing machine out there.

Then, a glimmer of hope. Sunday afternoon, the 16th of August. The wind swings cross-offshore from the ESE at a moderate 12 mph, and the conditions turn clean. The report says "wind and tide favorable," but here’s the catch: the swell is predicted to be too big for this break, hitting 10 ft from the east with a 9-second period. That's big, expert-only territory, and the energy is strong at 1359. It’s a real shame because the clean conditions would be perfect otherwise. If you’re a seasoned charger and you know this break handles that size, it could be your session. Otherwise, it’s a day for watching.

After that little tease, it’s back to square one. The wind goes back onshore from the ENE, and the surf drops. Monday the 17th through to the end of the month we get small, weak, lumpy surf. A lot of 2 ft to 4 ft stuff, with periods around 7-8 seconds, and combined energy readings that are mostly below 200. The winds stay fresh and cross-onshore, keeping the surface chopped up. For almost two weeks straight, from the 17th of August right through to the 29th, it’s just not worth paddling out. The water temp here is about average for this time of year, which is a small comfort.

So, the standout? That Sunday afternoon on the 16th is the only real opportunity, but only for the brave. For everyone else, save your wax and wait for a change in the weather pattern. It's a long, flat, and bumpy stretch ahead.

Rusty.

Read more