Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. The 16-day outlook for the Rabbit/Manana Island area is a bit of a tough one, with a long stretch of pretty ordinary conditions before a potential glimmer of hope right at the end. We’re looking at a solid block of poor surf for the rest of August, with no real standouts to speak of. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The story starts now and it’s a grim one. From Wednesday afternoon the 19th of August right through to the end of the month, the score is a flat zero. It’s all cross-onshore winds, choppy, lumpy, and messy. The swell is small and weak for the first week, with combined wave energy barely cracking 100 to 200 (188 to 296). The swell direction is mostly ENE, but the period is short, between 6 and 8 seconds, so it’s all windslop and no power. That ENE wind just won’t let up, and the surf is poor. The waves get a bit bigger later in the month, up to 7ft, but the wind is still ripping, and the energy jumps up to 573, but it’s still a mess. The wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” This stretch is a write-off.

Then we hit a gap. From the 31st of August through the 1st of September, the swell gets bigger, pushing 8ft to 8ft, and the energy ramps up hard to 1085, then 1818. But the wind is still cross-onshore, and the surf is still rated poor. The period on the 1st of September morning jumps to 12 seconds, a proper groundswell, but it’s wasted with that wind. The wave comment is “poor surf conditions.” For a beach break like Rabbit/Manana, that long period and strong onshore wind would make for a nasty, blown-out mess. Probably more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Finally, the payoff. On the 2nd of September, Wednesday, things look like they might come together. The morning still has a cross-onshore breeze and a marginal score, with 8ft swell from the ENE and a period of 9 seconds, energy at 888. But the real standout is the afternoon of the 2nd of September. The wind swings to light offshore from the south, a clean 6 mph. The swell stays at 8ft from the ENE, period drops to 8 seconds, but with light offshore wind, the comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the one to circle. The 3rd of September morning also looks clean, with a light cross-offshore breeze from the SSE, 7ft swell from the ENE, and a score of 3. The energy is still strong at 612. The 3rd of September afternoon goes back to a cross-shore breeze and a marginal score, so the window is in the afternoon of the 2nd and the morning of the 3rd.

That’s pretty much it. A long, dry spell, then a couple of sessions that could be proper good. Keep an eye on that wind shift. It’s a long way out, so treat the 2nd and 3rd of September as promising but not locked in. The rest of the time, leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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