Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Rabbit/Manana Island.

To be honest, mate, we’ve got a bit of a rough patch to sit through before anything worthwhile shows up. For the first couple of weeks, it’s pretty much a write-off. From Friday the 28th of August, all the way through to the morning of Thursday the 10th of September, it’s just non-stop onshore or cross-shore winds – mostly a stiff 19 to 25 mph breeze from the east-northeast – with lumpy, messy waves. The swell hangs around between 5 ft and 8 ft, but with that short, weak period of 6 to 8 seconds and the wind ruining any chance of a clean face, you’re better off staying home. The combined energy is moderate for a lot of that time, hitting values like 321 and 480, and even pushing into the strong range later on – 1,074 on the afternoon of the 3rd of September – but with the wind state, it’s all just close-out chop. Not a single day worth paddling out. The water’s warm, about 81°, which is normal for the time of year here.

The first real glimmer comes on the 10th of September, Thursday afternoon. The wind finally eases and swings cross-offshore out of the east-southeast at a gentle 9 mph, and the sea cleans right up. Swell drops to a more manageable 5 ft from the east-northeast with a 9-second period, and the energy’s still solid at 725. It’s marginal, but it’s the first clean look we’ve had.

Then the real standout arrives on the 12th of September, Saturday. This is the one to circle in the book. Both the morning and afternoon offer excellent conditions. The wind goes offshore from the south at a moderate 12 to 16 mph, the sun’s out with some cloud, and we’re looking at a 6 ft to 6 ft swell coming from the east with a proper 11-second period. That’s groundswell, meaning proper shaped waves with plenty of push and longer lulls between sets. The combined energy is strong, hitting 982 in the morning and 1,128 in the afternoon. For an intermediate surfer, this is the best on offer – clean, offshore, and with real substance. The crowds can be a factor here sometimes, so be prepared to share. The swell direction from the east matches up well for this exposed spot.

So overall, it’s a long wait, but that Saturday the 12th is the payoff. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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