Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this 16-day stretch for Rabbit/Manana Island is looking like a tough slog. The prevailing winds are just not playing ball for clean surf, and it’s going to be a long wait for anything that even gets close to worthwhile.

The pattern is pretty grim right from the start. For the first full week, from Sunday the 13th all the way through to Saturday the 26th of September, we’re stuck with a persistent, strong easterly wind flow. It’s coming in cross or cross-onshore, churning up the ocean and making conditions ragged. The swell itself is there, but it’s short-period windswell, and the wind is just ruining any chance of a decent wave face. Even when the swell energy gets strong – like we see on the 22nd with a combined energy of 1636 – it’s still just a messy, lumpy onshore mess. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The only glimmer of hope comes right at the very end of the run. On the 28th of September, Monday morning, we finally get a break in the wind. The swell is still a bit chunky at 6ft from the east, with a short 7-second period, but the wind drops to a light breeze from the northeast, turning it into a light cross-on. That’s a big deal after two weeks of strong breeze. It’s only rated as “marginal”, but compared to the rest of this forecast, it’s the clear standout. The wave energy is moderate (379), and the lighter wind means there’s a real chance of finding a few workable, if not perfect, corners. It won’t be classic, but it’ll be a thousand times better than the chop we’ve been dealing with.

So, there you have it. A whole lot of waiting for one shot at something half-decent on Monday the 28th. If you’re desperate, you might find a sheltered nook before then, but for clean waves, that’s your window.

Rusty.

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