Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a seat. I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at this stretch of coast all week. Honestly? If you’re looking for surf, you’re gonna be waiting a while. It’s a tough outlook.

Right now, and for the whole 16-day window, it’s pretty much a no-go. We’ve got swell, that’s not the problem—the combined energy ramps up into the 400s by the 5th of July, so it’s there (moderate to strong energy). But the wind is the killer. That ENE breeze is relentless, blowing 19 to 25 mph, and it’s hammering in cross-onshore almost the entire time. Even Thursday morning the 2nd of July starts clean, but with that 19 mph cross-on wind, it’s just lumpy and messy. The best you’ll see is 4 ft of 8-second swell from the east, but it’s no good for surfing—it’s blown out.

The swell builds as we go. By Friday afternoon the 3rd of July, we’re looking at 6 ft from the ENE with 8-second period, and the combined energy is hitting 411—still moderate, but that wind is 22 mph, cross-onshore, and the surf quality stays poor. Over 5 ft and with these winds, it’s getting too sloppy for beginners, and honestly, it’s not even clean enough for a proper session. The period stays short, mostly 7 or 8 seconds, so you’re just getting wind chop.

This pattern just doesn’t let up. We go through the entire first week: a gap from the 2nd to the 8th of July with nothing rideable. By the 6th and 7th, the swell is pushing 7 ft with combined energy jumping into the 400s, but we’ve got a strong breeze at 25 mph, making it cross-shore or cross-onshore and messy. The water temp is 79°, about average for the time of year, not that it helps.

Into the second week, around the 11th of July, the swell height is still up near 6 ft from the ENE, but the wind eases just a little—19 mph, still cross-onshore, still poor. The combined energy through the middle of the month hangs around the 300s to low 400s, so there’s energy, but the wind direction never swings to favour us. By the 17th of July, it’s dropping off, with combined energy down to 155, short period, and still cross-onshore.

For Rabbit/Manana Island, it’s an exposed spot that needs a good NNE swell to really work, and we’re not getting that. This ENE stuff with these winds just isn’t it. It’s a setup that would honestly be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing—too much wind, not enough clean face.

Hang in there. It tends not to stay this poor for long, and forecasts can change. But for now, I’d save the wax.

- Rusty

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