Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Rabbit/Manana Island over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be honest with you, the start of this run is a total write-off – we’re lookin’ at a solid week of raw, blown-out conditions that aren’t worth paddlin’ out for. The wind is just hammerin’ the place from the northeast, and the swell is all over the place. It’s not until the end of the month that we see a glimmer of hope.

The first real chance to get wet comes on Sunday, August 30th. The swell’s droppin’ a bit, but that's what we need. The water temp is about 81°F, which is pretty average for this time of year, so nothin’ special there.

For the whole 16-day window, the only standout is Sunday, August 30th, morning at Rabbit/Manana Island. Now, hold your horses – it’s a long-range call, so it’s not locked in yet, but it’s the best lookin’ window we’ve got. The swell direction is east, and the period is a very long 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. Combined swell energy is readin’ at 1537 (moderate/strong). The forecasted height is 6 ft, which is on the edgy side for beginners, but for the experienced crew, it’s got some push. What’s more important is the wind: it’s a gentle breeze from the ENE, listed as "cross," which is a massive improvement over the gale-force garbage we’ve been seein’. It’s gonna be clean, with just a slight cross-chop. The crowd factor says "sometimes," so it might get a bit of company, but with the conditions bein’ clean and the swell solid, it’ll be worth a look.

The rest of the run is a tough slog. From August 15th right through to August 28th, the surf is either blown out, too onshore, or just plain messy. The wind is constantly fresh or strong breeze from the ENE, mostly cross-on or cross, and the swell is either too big with a short period, or just too small. The combined energy values are all in the low two and three-digit range, which is weak to moderate at best. There’s a big gap of nearly two weeks of rubbish. The 29th of August shows a bit of pulse with a 15-second period and a 3 ft to 3 ft swell, but the wind is still messy, so it’s not a goer. The 30th is the only real light at the end of the tunnel.

So, to sum it up: the first two weeks are a washout. If you can wait it out, that Sunday morning session on the 30th is your best bet. Keep an eye on the wind, and hope it holds.

Rusty.

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