Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. The outlook for Rabbit/Manana Island over the next 16 days is a grind. The whole period is plagued by a persistent ENE wind, and the surf just can’t get clean. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions ahead.

The first decent sign doesn’t pop up until mid-August. For the first week and a half, from Thursday, July 30 all the way through to Monday, August 10, it’s a washout. The wind is howling out of the ENE at 15 to 28 mph, mostly cross or cross-onshore, creating lumpy, messy, choppy surf. The swell is there, with heights ranging from 3 ft to 8 ft, and the combined energy ramps up from a moderate 305 up to a very strong 1055 on Saturday, August 1 — but with those winds, it’s just not surfable. The short period, mostly 6 to 8 seconds, adds to the wind chop. For a beach-and-reef setup like this, the conditions are really more suited to kite surfing than paddle surfing during this stretch.

The one glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday, August 11. The wind finally swings to the SSE, dropping to a light 6 mph, and goes cross-offshore. This is the standout. The swell is 4 ft from the ENE with a period of 7 to 8 seconds, and the combined energy is a moderate 203 to 220. The forecast says “clean,” which is exactly what we need. This is the only day in the whole 16-day window that looks like it could offer some decent, clean waves. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no thermal surprises there. It’s an intermediate-level break, so it’s not for beginners, but with the swell around 4 ft, it’s manageable.

After that brief window, we’re back into the wind and chop from Wednesday, August 12 through to Friday, August 14, with the wind cranking back up from the ENE at 12-19 mph, cross-shore and cross-onshore, and the swell dropping to 4 ft to 5 ft with weak energy. It’s a real bummer after that one promising day.

So, to sum it up: the first 12 days are a blank, with only Tuesday, August 11, offering a clean, surfable window. It’s a long wait, but that day might just be the one to circle. The rest of the period is a write-off for paddle surfing. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because things can change, but right now, that’s the story.

Rusty.

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