Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Rabbit/Manana Island over the next couple of weeks, and I gotta be straight with you—this one is a tough run.

Right off the bat, the water temp is sittin’ at about 80°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there. But the surf picture? Not great.

The whole first week and a bit is dominated by fresh to strong cross-onshore ENE winds, blowing 18 mph to 31 mph. We’ve got swell in the water—starting around 6 ft and climbing to 10 ft by Thursday 3rd September and Friday 4th September—but it’s all short-period junk, 7 to 8 seconds, with combined energy readings bouncing between 347 and 1247 – that’s moderate to strong energy, but it’s all wasted by the wind. The wave comment just keeps callin’ it “poor surf conditions,” and that’s exactly how it looks: lumpy, messy, and blown out.

Friday 4th September shifts to a strong cross-shore, but still messy with cross-chop. Saturday 5th September is a little more hopeful on paper—swell 8 ft to 8 ft, ENE 18 mph cross-shore—but there’s a risk of thunderstorms and the wave call is only “marginal” at best. Not one to get excited about.

Sunday 6th September into Monday 7th September, the swell period stretches to 12 seconds—that’s proper groundswell—and the heights are 7 ft to 10 ft, with combined energy jumping to 1863 then 2431. But it’s still cross-onshore wind, so the quality is poor. That long period stuff wants a point or reef to wrap around, not a beach break gettin’ hammered by wind.

Now, Tuesday 8th September is a standout in size only: 18 ft swell with 12-second period and a combined energy of 7595—that’s very strong energy. But the wind is onshore (NNE 22 mph) and the wave comment says poor. That’s serious power, but for experts only, and only if they’re desperate. For the average surfer, that’s a skip.

Wednesday 9th September is the one that’ll tug at your heart. The swell is 10 ft, 9-second period, ENE energy, but the wind goes light—ENE 3 mph and NNE 3 mph, with comments like “light cross-onshore with small wind ripples.” The wave comment says “wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break.” That’s a classic case of too much of a good thing. Combined energy is still strong at 1415 and 1260. If you’re an expert and you know the break handles it, this is the morning and afternoon to look at.

Then Thursday 10th September morning is clean with cross-offshore SE wind at 9 mph, 7 ft, 8-second swell, combined energy 618. That’s actually decent—moderate energy, clean lines. Thursday afternoon gets even better: light S wind 6 mph going offshore, same 7 ft swell, and “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the true highlight of the whole run. Friday 11th September morning, light SSE 3 mph cross-offshore, 7 ft, again clean. This two-day window (10th and 11th) is the best you’re gonna get. Crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so there could be a few others in the water, but with conditions that clean, it’s worth it.

After that, from Saturday 12th September onward, it’s back to cross-onshore wind and lumpy 5 ft to 7 ft short-period junk—nothing to write home about.

So, the bottom line: For Rabbit/Manana Island, the surf just isn’t cooperating for most of this stretch. The one true standout is Thursday 10th September afternoon and Friday 11th September morning—clean, offshore or cross-offshore wind, waist-to-chest high swell at 7 ft to 7 ft from the ENE, and that good 8-second period. It’s not huge, but it’ll be fun and rideable. Everything else is either blown out, too big, or both.

Keep your eyes on that Thursday-Friday window, and if you can get out there, do it.

Rusty.

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