Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's be honest. For the next sixteen days, we've only got one spot in the picture: Rabbit/Manana Island. And it's a grim run. Water temp is a normal 81°F for this time of year, barely any different from the average, so you won't freeze, but you'll need a whole lot of patience.

We start Monday the 24th of August. Clear sky, but that's the only good bit. Wind is blasting from the ENE at 22 mph, straight across the swell. We've got a 6ft easterly swell, but the period is a short, weak 6 seconds – just wind slop. The combined energy is only 294 (weak), and every report says poor surf conditions. Monday afternoon and all of Tuesday are the same: cross-shore winds at 19-25 mph, lumpy cross-chop, and waves around 6-6ft with zero shape. Not surfable.

Wednesday the 26th drops a little to 5-5ft, but the wind goes cross-onshore and stays fresh and messy. Energy drops to 165 (weak) by the afternoon. Thursday and Friday are still rubbish – 4-5ft, cross-onshore, lumpy. Stuck in a rut.

The weekend of the 29th and 30th sees the swell nudge back up to 5-6ft, and the combined energy climbs into the moderate range – 366 on Saturday morning, 383 Saturday afternoon. But again, wind is cross or cross-onshore at 19-25 mph. It's messy, lumpy, and just not worth it.

Now, here's where it gets a bit interesting but still no good for the average surfer. Monday the 31st of August and Tuesday the 1st of September, the swell jumps to 8ft from the ENE, with a period stretching to 8 seconds. Energy jumps to 600-716 (strong). But the wind is still cross-onshore at 16-22 mph. That's a lot of water moving, but it's going to be choppy, lumpy, and hard work. For most, this is too big and ugly – only for the experts who don't mind a beating.

The first week of September keeps rolling the same dice: 5-6ft, ENE swell, periods around 7-8 seconds, and fresh cross-shore or cross-onshore winds. Energy sits in the moderate range (397-476), but every single entry says “poor surf conditions.” You're just not getting a clean face.

We hit a change around the 5th of September. Swell drops to a tiny 2ft, but the period jumps to a long 12 seconds – that's groundswell. Energy is 226 (weak). For Rabbit/Manana, a long-period swell like that is going to break too straight on a beach setup, and with cross-shore winds at 22 mph, it's just lumpy lines. No good.

The final days, the 6th through the 8th of September, see a mix. Swell back to 4-5ft, period dropping to a weak 6 seconds, winds cranking at 22-25 mph. Energy ranges from 107 (weak) up to 330 (moderate) on the 8th, but again – cross-shore, messy, poor.

So what's the best of a bad bunch? Nothing stands out. The whole sixteen-day forecast is a write-off for proper surfing. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, with those consistent cross-shore winds and a fair bit of bumpy swell. It's a blank run, and for this area, that's more normal than we'd like. Forecasts can change, but right now, leave the boards at home.

Rusty.

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