Rabbit/Manana Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. The swell is around, but the wind is just wrecking it day after day. We’re gonna have to wait for a small window of cleaner conditions early on, and after that, it’s a long stretch of messy, blown-out surf right through to the end of the forecast period.

The only real standout in this whole run is Rabbit/Manana Island. Monday the 7th is where we start, but the morning is a write-off with thunderstorm risks and a solid 8 ft of short-period, 7-second windswell from the east. The water is 81°, bang on average for the time of year. The afternoon though, things get interesting. The swell drops to a more manageable 5 ft but shifts to the ENE with a much longer 12-second period—that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is pumping at 1116 (moderate to strong), and with the wind staying cross-offshore, it’s going to be clean and lined up. This is the best surf of the entire outlook. The period is long, so expect longer lulls between sets, which makes the paddle out easier, but the wave quality will be there. It can get a bit crowded here sometimes, so get out early.

Tuesday the 8th still has some life. The morning shows 6 ft of ENE groundswell at 11 seconds with a fresh offshore wind from the south—that’s clean, shoulder-high+ waves. The energy is still solid at 884. The afternoon stays clean but the wind goes cross-off, dropping the swell to 6 ft.

After that, it’s a slow bleed into poor conditions. Wednesday the 9th starts with a small 4 ft swell and light cross-shore wind, but it’s already looking marginal, and by the afternoon the rain showers and chop kill it. From Thursday the 10th through to the 22nd of September, the forecast is a long, painful stretch of cross-on and onshore winds, mostly from the ENE and NE, with lumps, chop, and messy conditions. The swell sticks around, sometimes even pushing up to 8 ft, but with 18 to 25 mph winds blowing straight across or onshore, it’s just a washing machine. For anyone with a kite, those strong winds and solid swell might look fun, but for a surfboard? Leave it.

So, your one shot is Monday afternoon and maybe Tuesday morning. After that, it’s a solid two-week blank run. It’s not unusual for this area to go flat or blown out for a stretch, so don’t lose hope—forecasts can change, but right now, the ocean is telling us to wait.

Rusty.

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