Kapukahehu/Dixies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, it’s Rusty here. Let's have a look at the next stretch of surf for our little slice of paradise. We've got a couple of fun windows mixed in with some flat spells, so you gotta pick your moments this week.

Right off the bat, the water’s sitting at a warm 81°, which is pretty much spot-on average for this time of year, so no worries there. We're starting with a bit of a lull, though. The swell we have now is small and the good windows are a bit inconsistent. The first real call is for Wednesday morning at Kapukahehu/Dixies (Molokai). It's not huge, but it's clean and glassy with light winds. We're looking at 3ft of SSW swell with a 14-second period. The energy is moderate at 389, and while it's a reef break that's fairly consistent, it's not a massive standout. It's surfable, but don't be expecting fireworks.

By Wednesday afternoon, the wind picks up slightly, but it stays clean. There are some rain showers around, but the surf is still 3ft from the SSW with a 13-second period. The energy is still moderate at 372. It's another surfable session, but same story as the morning—nothing to shout about.

Thursday drops off a bit. The swell is down to 2ft with a long 16-18 second period, but the wind gets stronger. The morning is still clean with a cross-off breeze, but the swell is small and the tide might make it tricky. The afternoon gets windier with a fresh breeze, and the quality drops right off. I'd skip it.

Friday and Saturday are in the same boat. The swell stays small in the 2ft to 2ft range and the period stays long, but these long-period swells can be tricky on a reef. The morning on Saturday is your best bet, with 2ft of SW swell, a 15-second period and gentle winds, but it's still marginal. The energy is weak to moderate, sitting around 242. It's just not great.

Sunday and Monday are pretty much a write-off. The swell drops right down to 2ft and the energy is weak, below 100 at times. There's more wind and the waves are just not there. I'd say we have a real gap from Sunday morning through to Monday afternoon if you're chasing anything half-decent.

Now, here's the turnaround. Tuesday the 15th is the standout of the first week. The swell pulses up to 3ft, but it's the period that jumps to 19-20 seconds. This is proper groundswell. The energy is strong, hitting 440 in the morning and 422 in the afternoon. The wind is light and the conditions are clean. This is the one to aim for. Expect good surf and better shaped waves. It'll be worth the wait.

Wednesday the 16th holds on. The swell bumps up to 3ft, with an 18-second period, and energy builds to 541 by the afternoon. It's still clean and glassy, but the tide might be a bit questionable for the reef. This is a solid option but the Tuesday is your pick.

Then we get another dry spell. Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th are blown out by strong 30 km/h cross-off winds. Even though the swell pushes back up to 3ft on Friday and the energy gets strong around 646 to 723, the wind is going to make it messy. For a reef break, this looks more like a kite-surfing day than a paddling one.

The following week is all about patience. Saturday and Sunday are dominated by that fresh 30 km/h wind with weak to moderate energy. The swell hangs around 3ft but it's not clean. Sunday the 20th afternoon though, the wind finally swings offshore and turns moderate. It cleans up the 3ft of SSW swell and the energy is moderate at 343. That's a promising window but it's further out, so treat it with a bit of caution.

The final stretch, from the 21st through the 24th, is mostly small and ordinary. The swell drops back to 2ft-2ft, with the energy weakening. The wind stays fresh and cross-off for most of it. Thursday the 24th has a gentle offshore wind and some clean 2ft of W swell, but again, it's a smaller, more marginal window. It's not a blank run, but it's not a week to plan your life around.

So, bottom line: if you can get out Wednesday morning or Tuesday the 15th, that's your best bet. The long-period swell and light winds on Tuesday make it the standout. The rest is just picking through the small stuff and waiting for the wind to drop.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more