ADs/Doubles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. I’ve had a good look at the chart for the next couple of weeks, and I’ll be straight with you – it’s a tough read for ADs/Doubles. The overall pattern is dominated by a persistent cross-shore wind, mostly from the ENE, that just won’t let up. That’s gonna keep things lumpy and messy for the majority of the forecast period. We’ve got a run of poor surf conditions stretching from the first day right through to the end of the second week, with only a couple of days showing a glimmer of something marginal. The water temp is sitting right on 81°F, which is bang on average for this time of year (anomaly of just 0.7°F), so at least the water’s nice and warm.

Let’s start with Tuesday afternoon, August 11th. The swell is small at 3ft out of the SSW, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore from the ENE at 22 mph, so the wave comment is "poor surf conditions". The combined energy is moderate at 545. The score is a zero. Not a good start.

Moving into Wednesday, August 12th, the morning offers a 3ft S swell (period 18 seconds, a long period groundswell), but the wind is still ENE at 19 mph, cross-shore, and the comment is again "poor surf conditions". The energy is moderate at 897. The afternoon lifts a little – swell hits 3ft from the S, period 18 seconds, energy jumps to 1012 (still moderate), and the wind is 22 mph cross-shore, but the comment upgrades to "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions" with a score of 1 out of 10. That’s the best we see for a while, but it’s hardly a green light.

Thursday, August 13th, through to Sunday, August 16th, is a real grind. The swell builds from 3ft up to 12ft, and by Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th, we’re looking at 8ft to 12ft of ENE swell. The wind gets nasty – up to 28-31 mph, cross-shore or onshore, with a risk of thunderstorms. The energy values are very high (1908 to 2423), but the wave comment is "poor surf conditions" across the board. Saturday afternoon has a near gale cross-shore (31 mph), and Sunday morning has a 12ft E swell with onshore wind. This is paddle-surfing no-go zone. For those with a kite, the setup might be more interesting than a surfboard.

Monday, August 17th, morning shows a slight improvement. The swell drops to 8ft from the ENE, period 9 seconds, wind is a gentle cross-onshore at 9 mph, and the comment is "marginal surf forecast" with a score of 1. Energy is high at 1171. It’s still not clean, but it’s the most promising moment so far. The wind is lighter, so the chop is a bit less crazy.

From Monday afternoon, August 17th, right through to Monday, August 24th, the story is the same: poor surf conditions, cross-shore wind (ENE or NE), and swell sizes bouncing between 2ft and 6ft. The combined energy is mostly moderate (300s to 900s). The only real standout in this whole stretch is Monday morning, August 24th. The swell is just 3ft from the S, period 18 seconds, but the wind is ENE at 19 mph cross-shore, and the comment is "marginal surf forecast" (score 1). Energy is moderate at 1010. It’s not a classic, but it’s the best of a bad lot.

After that, Tuesday, August 25th, and Wednesday, August 26th, see the wind pick up again, with swells from the S and ENE, but the wind is strong cross-shore or cross-onshore, keeping the lumpy mess going. The energy is moderate (900s), but the scores are zeros.

So, to sum it up for ADs/Doubles: the first two weeks are mostly a write-off for quality surf. The only real standouts, and I use that term loosely, are the Wednesday afternoon (August 12th) and the Monday mornings (August 17th and August 24th) – these are the only times the conditions are even marginal. The persistent ENE cross-shore wind is the culprit. If you’re desperate, keep an eye on those lighter wind windows, but honestly, this is a stretch where the forecasts might change, so don’t write the whole thing off just yet. That said, the overall pattern is a tough one.

Rusty.

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