ADs/Doubles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Well, I’ve had a good look at the charts for ADs/Doubles over the next couple of weeks, and I’ve got to be straight with you – it’s looking grim for a decent paddle for quite a while. This isn’t a place you want to be getting your hopes up for the foreseeable future.

The pattern is a long, drawn-out run of poor to marginal conditions, with a lot of cross-shore wind messing things up. We’re looking at a solid gap of over a week where I wouldn’t bother getting the board bag out. There is a faint glimmer at the very end, but it’s a long way off.

From Saturday the 12th right through to Thursday the 24th, the conditions are just average at best. The swell is hanging around from the NE and ENE, mostly between 1 ft to 6 ft, but the wind is a constant problem. It’s blowing cross-shore or cross-onshore from the ENE and NE at 12 to 25 mph, creating lumpy, choppy surfaces. Every session is flagged as "poor surf conditions". The combined wave energy is mostly moderate (between 97 and 939), but the wind just kills any chance of a clean wave. The period is often short, around 8 seconds, which doesn’t help with shape. On Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th, the swell bumps up over 8 ft (8 ft to 10 ft) with strong ENE winds at 22-25 mph – that’s big, messy, and lumpy. If you’re an expert surfer, there might be some raw power, but honestly, the cross-shore wind makes it look more like a battle than a joyride. That setup would actually be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, with all that wind and lumpy water.

Now, a little bit of hope shows up later on. From Wednesday the 23rd of September morning (that’s a week from this coming Wednesday), we start seeing marginal forecasts popping up. The swell is hitting about 5 ft to 5 ft from the ENE and E, but the wind eases up a touch to 6-12 mph. The period stretches to 10 seconds, which is a bit better. The combined wave energy climbs into the 500-900 range, so there’s some moderate energy building.

The real standout, if you’re patient, is Thursday the 24th of September morning. We’ve got a 5 ft swell from the east with a 10-second period, and the wind is down to a light 6 mph from the E – that’s a light cross-onshore breeze, with just small wind ripples. That’s the cleanest it’s going to get. The combined energy is a solid 817, so there’ll be some push. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so you won’t need a steamer, just a spring suit. This is the one to circle on the calendar if you’re desperate, but keep the crowds in mind – ADs/Doubles can get busy, so expect company.

But honestly, for this spot, a blank run like this is fairly normal. It tends not to stay poor for long, and forecasts can always change, but right now, I’m telling you: save your energy for another day.

Rusty.

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