ADs/Doubles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – for ADs/Doubles, the next two and a half weeks are a rough patch. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions ahead, with a real ugly mix of cross-shores and onshores that’s gonna leave the surface all lumpy and chopped up. The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t show up until Thursday, August 27, but even then it’s a beast of a swell that’s way too big for a comfortable paddle.

For the first week, from Monday August 17 through to Wednesday August 26, the quality is zero. Wind’s blowing from the ENE mostly, 30 to 35 km/h, and it’s cross or cross-on the whole time. Swell hangs around 3 ft to 6 ft for the first eight days, with short periods of 6 to 8 seconds – that’s just wind-chop, full of closeouts and no power. The combined wave energy is mostly moderate, sitting between 149 and 982 (moderate to strong-ish), but it’s all messy. A couple of days like Wednesday afternoon August 19 and Thursday August 20 see a long-period SSW groundswell (16 to 18 seconds), pushing 1 ft to 2 ft, but the wind kills it dead. It’s just not worth paddling out.

Things get wild from Tuesday August 25 into the end of the month. Swell jumps to 8 ft on the Tuesday, then hits 10 ft on Thursday August 27 and 12 ft on Friday August 28, all from the ENE with a period that finally stretches to 11 seconds by the 28th. That's a serious groundswell – long gaps between sets, good shape potential, but for a spot like ADs/Doubles it might break a bit straight. The problem is the size: 8 ft is expert territory, and 12 ft? That’s for big-wave chargers only, and only if you’re keen on a beating. The combined energy skyrockets past 2000 on the 27th and hits over 3000 on the 28th (very strong wave energy), but the wind stays cross-shore at 25 to 30 km/h, meaning it’ll be lumpy and hard to manage. On Thursday August 27 morning, the forecast actually says the wind and tide are favorable but the swell is too big for this break – that’s a red flag for everyone except the most experienced.

After that, Sunday August 30 drops back to a weak 2 ft SSW groundswell with a 16-second period, but with 35 km/h cross-shore wind, it’s just another day of blown-out junk. The last day, Tuesday September 1, shows 8 ft from the east with a 10-second period and cross-shore 35 km/h wind – marginal at best.

Honestly, the only standout here is Thursday August 27 morning – 10 ft ENE swell, 11-second period, combined energy of 1743 (strong), and the wind and tide line up. It’s a beast, and only experts should even think about it. If you’re an experienced big-wave surfer, that’s your window, but don’t expect clean, smooth faces – the cross-shore will keep it lumpy. For everyone else? I’d wait for the next forecast cycle. This stretch is a write-off for decent paddle surfing.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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