ADs/Doubles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a good hard look at what ADs/Doubles is doing for us over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is about spot on for this time of year. Nothing weird going on there.

The whole 16-day window starts off a bit flat and messy. Wednesday morning the 9th of September we’ve got a little 3 ft SSW groundswell rolling in with a 14-second period and a combined energy of 695. It’s clean with a light cross breeze, but honestly, the tide and conditions are being real fickle. It's a "maybe" at best for a quick grovel on a log. That afternoon, the wind picks up to a moderate cross breeze and it gets choppy. Not great.

Thursday the 10th sees a jump in size to about 5 ft, but it's coming from the ENE with a shocker 7-second windswell period. The whole setup is cross-onshore and choppy. That's not surf, that's a washing machine. Scores zero for the whole day. Friday looks okay on paper with chest-high 5 ft ENE swell and a longer 11-second period, but the wind stays cross-shore and lumpy. It’s very ordinary.

Look, the truth is, from the start all the way through to the morning of Tuesday the 15th of September, we’ve got a real dry spell. Days of poor conditions and low scores. There’s a tiny glimmer on Tuesday afternoon – the wind swings a little cross-offshore at 9 mph, giving us some clean faces on a small 3 ft NE swell. The combined energy is only 144, so it’s weak, but it’s the first surfable moment we’ve seen. Don’t expect much, but it’s ridable.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting for the patient ones. On Wednesday the 16th of September in the afternoon, a proper groundswell from the SSW hits at 3 ft, but get this – an 18-second period and a combined energy of 692. That’s some deep-water energy, clean lines. The issue? The wind is a fresh cross-shore, lumping it up. It’s a frustrating tease.

But the real standout, and I mean the only one worth circling on your calendar, is Friday the 18th of September in the morning. That’s a long way out, so don't bank on it yet. The models are showing a 3 ft SSW swell with a 17-second period. The combined wave energy is 1129, which is serious oomph. The problem is the wind is forecast to be a fresh 22 mph cross-onshore, making it lumpy. That energy is massive for a wave that size, meaning it's super powerful. At ADs/Doubles, which is an exposed spot, that long-period SSW groundswell will wrap in nicely, but that onshore wind will ruin the face. If the wind backs off even a little, it would be magic. As it stands, it’s a "watch and hope" situation. The rest of the second week is just a repeat of fresh cross-shore winds and poor conditions.

So in summary: don't get wet for the first week and a half unless you're desperate on the 15th. The one real shot of something special is the 18th, but it's a long-range call and the wind is currently the enemy. We'll see.

Rusty.

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