ADs/Doubles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Oi, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the outlook for ADs/Doubles over the next 16 days is a tough one. I’ve looked at the whole run, and truth be told, there’s no period where the conditions really come together for a proper paddle session. The wind is a persistent problem, and the surf quality just never gets there.

We kick off on Monday, July 20th, with a long-period groundswell from the south, about 3 ft, with a period of 16 seconds. That’s got some serious energy behind it (569), but the wind is a cross-shore from the ENE at 16 mph, already putting a chop on it. Conditions are marginal. By the afternoon, the wind picks up to 19 mph, and it’s a total write-off.

Tuesday July 21st and Wednesday July 22nd follow the same pattern – we see a bit more size, with the swell building to 5 ft from the ENE on Wednesday afternoon, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore at 22 mph, creating a lumpy mess. The combined energy jumps way up to 1191, but it’s all for nothing with that wind.

Thursday July 23rd through Saturday July 26th, the swell gets bigger, hitting 8 ft from the ENE on Friday July 24th with a short period of 7-8 seconds. That’s expert-only territory just on size, but the wind is howling from the ENE at 22-25 mph, making it a full-on, messy, cross-shore nightmare. The energy is through the roof (1423 on Friday afternoon), but it’s unsurfable. Honestly, with that much wind and messy sea, it looks more like a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

We get a slight break in the wind on Tuesday July 28th, with a moderate breeze at 12 mph, and the swell is a cleaner 6 ft from the east with a 12-second period. The energy is still solid (1142), and it’s the best we’ll see, but it’s still a cross-shore wind. The forecast scores it as marginal, and I’d agree – it’s a maybe, not a goer.

After that, from Wednesday July 29th right through to Monday August 3rd, the pattern repeats: manageable swell sizes, but always hampered by a cross or cross-onshore wind. The energy drops off significantly, and the forecast is consistently poor. There’s a gap of several days with no real recommendation.

The bottom line: there are no standout days. The persistent ENE wind just kills the quality at this exposed break, which needs offshore from the NW for clean conditions. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual there. It’s a disappointing run, but forecasts can change. For now, I’d keep the board in the bag.

Rusty.

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