ADs/Doubles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, painful stretch of poor conditions before a glimmer of hope shows up way down the line.

We’re starting with ADs/Doubles. The problem is the wind. We’ve got a persistent, strong cross-shore breeze from the ENE, blowing 18 to 28 mph, day after day. This is creating a lumpy, cross-chop that’s just ruining any chance of a decent wave. The combined energy is moderate, with values like 633 to 734, but the quality is zero. The swell is a mix of short-period, wind-affected stuff from the east, and some longer-period 16-18 second groundswells from the south, but the wind is so messy it doesn't matter. The water temperature anomaly is about average for the time of year, so nothing to write home about there.

This ugly run goes on and on. From Wednesday, August 26th, right through to Saturday, September 5th, it’s a solid 11 days of "poor surf conditions" – nearly every session is a write-off. The wind is just relentless. The swell height gets up to 8 ft around the 4th of September, but it’s with a 7-second period and strong, messy cross-shore winds. That setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Then, on Sunday, September 6th, we get a bit of a change. The wind eases, but the swell drops to 3 ft from the SSW with a 16-second period. The combined energy is still strong at 868, but the waves are tiny and the wind is still a strong cross-shore. It’s still not worth it.

Now, here’s the one that has my attention, even if it’s a long way off. Monday, September 7th. The wind finally swings offshore. Monday morning we get a light WNW breeze, and by Monday afternoon, it’s a clean, light offshore from the NW at just 6 mph. The swell is 4 ft from the SSW with a 14-second period. The combined energy jumps to 1269, which is a solid, moderate-to-strong energy. The report says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers," and I can see why. That long-period groundswell from the south will wrap in nicely, and with glassy offshore winds, ADs/Doubles will be clean and lined up. This is your standout. It’s a week and a half away, so don’t bank on it, but it’s the only real window of quality in the entire 16-day forecast.

After that, it goes back to junk. Tuesday, September 8th, the wind swings onshore again, and we’re back to stormy, choppy conditions with a 5 ft to 5 ft south swell, but it’s a washout. The rest of the forecast is more of the same – poor, messy, and windy.

So, the call is this: Wait for Monday, September 7th. That’s your one shot. Everything else is a write-off. The gap between now and then is a full 12 days of junk. Keep your eyes on that forecast, but don't get your hopes up too high.

Rusty.

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