ADs/Doubles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, checkin’ in with the outlook for ADs/Doubles. Honestly, it’s a bit of a frustrating stretch ahead, so let’s break it down.

We’re looking at a long, drawn-out period of messy conditions. For Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th, a solid 7 ft swell from the ENE is pumping in, with moderate energy levels around 764. But the wind is a killer – a stiff 25 mph cross-shore breeze is screaming across the water, making for messy cross-chop and poor surf quality. It’s a classic case of "plenty of water moving but nowhere to ride it properly." The period is short too, at 7 seconds, so those waves will be weak and crumbly, no power behind them. For you beginners out there, that 7 ft+ is more than you’ll want to tackle even in good conditions, so give this one a miss.

Through Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th, we stay in the same pattern. Swell drops a touch to 6 ft – 5 ft, but the cross-shore wind hangs in there at 19-22 mph. The energy is still moderate, coming in between 255 and 768, but the periods are stuck at a short 7-8 seconds. It’s all a bit lumpy and uninviting.

Wednesday the 15th eases off a little. Wind drops to 9 mph, but it swings cross-onshore, so you get a choppy, bumpy surface with knee-to-waist high swell at 3 ft to 4 ft. Not worth paddling out for.

Then things get weird. Thursday the 16th brings in a tiny 2 ft swell from the SSW, but with a very long 16-17 second period. The energy is moderate, at 314-418, but with a strong 19 mph cross-onshore wind? You’ll just get blown off your board chasing small, infrequent waves. This tiny long-period groundswell is better suited to a point or reef, not a beach break with this wind.

From Friday the 17th right through to Tuesday the 22nd, it's the same old story. Constant ENE cross-shore winds, mostly in the 16-25 mph range, with wave heights bouncing between 2 ft and 6 ft and periods mostly short (6-8 seconds). The energy stays moderate, hitting a 997 on Tuesday the 21st, which is a tease – there's some juice in the water, but the wind is just shredding it. Expect lumpy, fat, and frustrating surf.

Now, the end of the period gets interesting, but not for a paddle surfer. On Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd, we start seeing some solid, very long period groundswell sneaking in from the SSW and S, with periods of 13-20 seconds. The combined energy is strong, hitting 707 and 580. But the swell heights are puny, 2 ft to 2 ft, and the wind is still a moderate 16 mph cross-shore. It’s like a promise that’s not quite kept.

Friday the 24th through Sunday the 26th sees the swell mix up. Friday has tiny 2 ft SSW groundswell, then Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th bounce back to 5 ft to 6 ft from the ENE with short 6-7 second periods and cross-shore winds at 16-19 mph. The energy is moderate, around 466-572.

Look, there isn’t one single standout day in this whole 16-day window. The water temp is a warm 79°F, which is pretty much average for this time of year, so the only thing you’ll feel is the frustration. With the persistent cross-shore to cross-onshore winds, this setup honestly looks far more interesting for kite surfing than standard paddle surfing. The swell energy and the strong winds are there for it, but for the rest of us, it’s a long wait for a clean window that never really opens.

- Rusty

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