ADs/Doubles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s get straight into it for ADs/Doubles.

The forecast here is a tough one to swallow. We’ve got a long dry spell with persistent easterly trades that just won’t let up. For the next week and more, the wind is locked in from the ENE at 15 to 25 mph, always cross or cross-on, which is going to keep things bumpy and messy. It’s a classic tradewind grind that kills the quality for a spot that really wants something cleaner. For the first 10 days or so, it’s pretty much a write-off for decent paddle surfing, with a lot of "poor surf conditions" stamped all over the board.

The water is sitting at 79°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t show up until Monday the 28th of July. We start to see the wind ease back a little, with a gentle to moderate breeze from the ENE, still cross, but the combined wave energy is still pretty high, around 1853 to 1738. This is strong energy, but the swell is mostly short-period windswell (7-8 seconds) for a long time. By the 28th, we get a longer period swell showing up, around 14 seconds from the E/ENE, with a solid 6 ft to 7 ft of swell. It's not going to be perfect, but it’s the best we’ll see. The wind is finally dropping to around 12 mph from the NE, which is a bit better.

The standout for the whole forecast window is Monday afternoon the 28th of July, and Tuesday morning the 29th of July. The swell is 7 ft from the E/ENE (12-14 seconds), and with the lighter cross breeze from the NE, it might just hold up better than anything else in the run. The energy is strong (around 1738-1853), but the long period will make it more powerful. The wind is still side-shore, so it won't be glassy, but it’s the closest we get to clean. Expect a bit of a crowd, as this spot can get busy when it's the only game in town.

Don’t get too excited about the 24th to 26th of July – that’s when the trades really howl and we get nearly 8 ft of messy, short-period slop with a strong cross-wind. That’s more of a kite-surfing situation than a good day for a paddle.

So, for a surfer, it’s a waiting game. The first week is a bust. The second week has a couple of windows that are just about surfable. It’s not a classic run, but forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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