Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s chew the fat on what’s coming up for Rock Point/Pohakuloa. I gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks look like a real mixed bag, and we’ve got a long stretch of pretty average conditions to wade through before anything gets interesting.

First up, the water temp is sitting at 80°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The outlook kicks off with a real flat spell. From Tuesday the 1st of September right through to the end of the first week, it’s pretty grim. The swell is there, but it’s all short-period, wind-affected junk. Those days from Tuesday the 1st to Thursday the 3rd have some size – 6ft to 8ft – but it’s coming from the ENE at 8 seconds, and the wind is a fresh to strong cross or cross-shore breeze. The wave energy is moderate (464-752), but the quality is poor. That’s messy, lumpy stuff, not worth paddling out for.

Friday the 4th is the first sign of something changing. The morning still has that lumpy 8ft cross-shore chop, but by the afternoon the swell period jumps to 14 seconds and the height drops to 4ft. The energy jumps up to 984, but it’s still a cross-shore wind, so it’s not clean. Still, that long period is a hint of better things to come.

Then we hit the real wait. From Saturday the 5th all the way through to Monday the 7th, the swell pushes up to 8ft-8ft from the ENE, with a nice long period of 12-13 seconds. The wave energy goes through the roof – between 1510 and 2347, which is strong. But the wind is still cross-shore, a moderate breeze, so the surf is just marginal. The sets will be there, but the face is gonna be a bumpy ride. Not the best, but if you’re desperate, the afternoon of Monday the 7th with a gentle breeze might offer the cleanest of the bunch.

Tuesday the 8th sees the swell start to drop, and the wind turns cross-onshore, making things choppy. Wednesday the 9th through Friday the 11th is back to poor, short-period, moderate wind slop. Another quiet patch.

Now, here’s the one to circle on the calendar. Saturday the 12th of September. The morning sees a 5ft swell from the E (8 seconds, 336 energy), but the wind is a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the NE. That’s clean. Then the afternoon gets even better: 5ft from the ENE, still 8 seconds, but the wind stays a gentle cross-off, and the forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” The energy is low (252) but the setup is clean. This is the standout window. The swell is a bit small, but for a reef and point break like Rock Point, that long-period groundswell (even at 8 seconds) combined with offshore wind will make for some fun, peelable waves. Just be aware the break is inconsistent, so you’ll be waiting for the sets. And crowds are likely, so get in early.

After that, Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th go back to poor, short-period cross-shore junk. The following Tuesday and Wednesday, the 15th and 16th, see the swell bottom out around 3ft to 5ft, with a brief pop of 13-second period on the 16th, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore, so it’s not worth the effort.

So, the bottom line: the first week is a write-off. The best bet is Saturday the 12th of September for the cleanest conditions. It won’t be big, but it’ll be tidy. The Sunday morning of the 13th is a second look, but it’s a step down. For the rest, you’re better off waiting for the winds to play ball.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on that forecast.

Rusty.

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