Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – Rock Point (Pohakuloa) is copping a rough spell for the next week and a half. For the first ten days, the trade winds are howling from the east and east-northeast, cross-shore as hell, and the surf is just a mess of lumpy cross-chop. The water’s sitting at 80° with a tiny anomaly of 0.5°, so pretty average for the time of year, but the crowds are often around here, and with the wind and chop, it’s not worth paddling out.

Saturday the 18th kicks off with 7 ft of east swell at a short 7 seconds, but that 22 mph cross-wind is ruining any chance of a clean wave. The combined energy is moderate at 491, but it’s all for nothing. That theme holds through the rest of the week – Sunday and Monday stay around 5 ft, still cross-shore, still messy. By Tuesday and Wednesday the 22nd and 23rd, the swell hangs around 5 ft to 7 ft, but the wind is still 19 mph, and the energy is just moderate (310 to 324). The waves are poor, full stop.

Come Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th, the swell picks up a touch to 7 ft, but the wind is still 19-22 mph, and the energy is only moderate (429 to 548). Still poor conditions. It’s a solid week of no-go.

Now, around the 26th of July, things start to look a bit different, but not necessarily good. We get a big jump in period – a 16-second groundswell from the east, 5 ft, and the energy goes through the roof to 1604 (strong). But the wind is still cross-shore at 16 mph, and the write-up says marginal surf at best. That long period means the swell is going to be lining up and breaking straight on a beach here, which isn’t ideal. It’s a classic “looks bigger on paper than it is in the water” situation. The 27th and 28th keep that long-period east swell, building to 8 ft with energy up to 2917, but the wind is still cross-shore and the tide is questionable. Crowds are often, and with the wind messy, it’s not worth the paddle.

The only real standout, and I mean the only one, is the 29th of July. Wednesday morning and afternoon, the swell is big – 18 ft to 20 ft from the east-northeast, with a period of 14 seconds. The energy is enormous, 10749, and the wind finally swings to a light cross-offshore from the northeast at 12 mph. The description says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That’s a massive caveat – 18 ft to 20 ft is only for the experts, and even then, it’s likely too heavy for Rock Point. The 30th of July morning shows a drop to 12 ft with a 10-second period, energy at 2239, and a light cross-offshore from the north-northeast at 6 mph, but again, the report says the swell is too big for the break. So, a couple of days with potential, but only for the brave and only if the tide lines up.

After that, the last few days of the forecast (31st July to 2nd August) see the swell drop back to 5 ft to 7 ft, short period, cross-shore winds, and poor conditions. It’s a long, quiet end to the run.

So, bottom line: the first ten days are a write-off. The 29th and 30th of July offer the biggest swell of the period, but it’s frankly too big for this spot. If you’re a hardcore charger, you might get a look on the 30th morning, but for most of us, it’s a stay-on-the-beach situation. The rest of the outlook is just more messy trade wind slop. There’s no standout for the general surfer here.

Rusty.

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