Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: this 16-day window for Rock Point/Pohakuloa is a tough one. For the first week and a half, the surf conditions are pretty ordinary and the winds are mostly cross or cross-off, which is making things choppy and messy. The swell direction is coming from the ENE or E, and that’s not quite the optimum NE direction this spot likes to see. The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t pop up until the very end of the period.

We start off on Wednesday the 19th of August with some clouds and a moderate cross-shore breeze at 12 mph. The swell is a weak 4 ft from the ENE with a short period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is weak at 206. It’s just poor conditions. That carries through Thursday and Friday with small, weak waves and cross-winds. Saturday the 22nd brings a bump in size to 6 ft but the wind picks up to a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy. The energy climbs to 239, but the quality isn’t there.

Sunday the 23rd sees a jump – we get a 7 ft swell from the E with a long 12-second period. That brings the combined energy up to a strong 1324, but the wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore creating a lumpy mess. Later in the afternoon, the wind switches to a cross-off at 28 mph and the swell pushes to 8 ft. That’s getting big, but with that strong breeze it’s clean. Still, it’s a marginal forecast.

From Monday the 24th right through to the end of the month, it’s a grind. Swell sizes hang between 5 ft and 8 ft, but the wind is persistent from the ENE at 12 to 22 mph, always cross-shore. The water temperature is about average for this time of year. The crowds here are listed as “often”, so you’ll likely have company, even in these messy conditions. This spot is inconsistent and rarely offers a clean day when the wind is wrong.

Now, here’s the standout. On Tuesday the 1st of September, we get a serious injection of energy. The morning shows an 8 ft swell from the E with a very long 13-second period. The combined energy is massive at 2626. By the afternoon, the swell peaks at 10 ft from the E, still with that long 13-second period, and the energy hits 2928. The problem is, the wind is still a moderate 16 mph cross-shore, and the word is the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That’s expert-level territory. If you’re a seasoned charger and you can handle the size and that long-period groundswell, this could be your day. The long period means it’ll be better shaped, with longer lulls between sets, but at a point and reef like Rock Point, it might just reel off perfectly if you can get the drop. After that, Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd stay big but get messy again with strong winds.

Honestly, for most of the month, the setup here looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the consistent cross-shore winds and the lumpy conditions. The only real highlight is that first day of September, but that’s for experts only.

Keep an eye on it, but don’t get your hopes up for the next two weeks.

- Rusty

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