Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook is a bit of a tough one. We’re looking at a 16-day window that’s going to be a grind for anyone looking for a proper surf. The biggest issue is the wind. For almost the entire period, we’ve got a stiff cross-shore breeze, sometimes a fresh breeze, sometimes a strong breeze, and it’s bringing lumpy, cross-chop conditions. It’s not clean, it’s not glassy, and it’s not letting up for a true standout session.

We’ve only got one break on the menu, and that’s Rock Point/Pohakuloa (reef and point). It’s inconsistent, and when it does get swell, it’s normally exposed to the NE. The first real chance to even talk about getting wet doesn’t come until Monday, July 27. Before that, from Thursday, July 23 right through Sunday, July 26, the surf is just poor. The wind is a fresh cross-shore, the swell is weak and short-period, and the energy is moderate (384 to 764). Honestly, it’s a write-off. That’s a four-day gap of nothing.

Come Monday morning, July 27, things get a little less hopeless. The swell picks up a bit, but it’s still marginal. The combined energy climbs up to 993, and the wind drops to a moderate breeze. Still cross-shore though, so there’s a chop on it. The afternoon looks a bit bigger, with energy passing 1000 (1019), but the wind picks back up to a fresh breeze. It’s not surfable, but at least it’s not a total zero.

The best shot in this whole forecast is shaping up for Tuesday, July 28. The morning session sees a clean cross-offshore wind from the NE at 15 mph. The swell is 7 ft from the ENE with a 12-second period – that’s a proper groundswell, meaning good energy and shape. The combined energy is strong at 1189. This is the only window where the wind is actually in our favour. The afternoon drops off a bit to 6 ft and the energy fades, but the morning is the pick of the bunch. Because it’s a reef and point, it should handle that long-period energy well. It’s a step up from the rest, but it’s still a 3/5 kind of day, not a classic.

The rest of the week is a rinse and repeat of cross-shore winds and marginal surf. The energy drops right back down to 227 on Thursday, July 30, and the wind goes light, but it’s cross-shore. By the time we hit Friday, July 31, we’re back to fresh cross-shore winds and lumpy, poor surf. The swell is there, but it’s short-period, and the wind is just ruining it.

Looking further out into the first week of August, the story doesn’t change much. The wind stays a strong cross-shore, and the swell is consistently poor. The energy is moderate, hitting 926 and 1015 on Sunday, August 2, but with 22 mph cross-shore winds, it’s just messy. This is one of those stretches where you’d be better off looking at the kite surfers whipping around. The setup is more interesting for them than for a paddle surfer.

The only other flicker of hope is on Monday, August 3 and Tuesday, August 4. The swell is small, only 4 ft, but the period goes very long, 16 seconds and 15 seconds. The energy is still strong (1085, 1022, 882, 1053). But the wind is still a moderate cross-shore. For a reef and point, that long period could be amazing if the wind cleans up, but it doesn’t. It’s a hard sell.

So, to wrap it up: The standout is the Tuesday morning, July 28 session at Rock Point/Pohakuloa. That’s the only window with a clean cross-offshore wind and a decent 7 ft groundswell. Everything else is a battle with the wind. For the rest of the 16 days, it’s mostly poor or marginal. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual there. Keep an eye on the forecast, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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