Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let's talk about the next couple of weeks at Rock Point/Pohakuloa.

Honestly, it’s a pretty grim stretch of surf for the most part. The forecast is a long run of poor conditions, with a lot of cross-shore wind and lumpy, choppy surf. It’s one of those setups where the waves are there, but you’ll be fighting a messy, bumpy ocean the whole time. The water temp is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so no worries there – it's just the waves that are the problem.

For the first week, from the 10th through to the 16th, you're looking at a whole lot of nothing. The swell is small-to-modest, but the wind is just onshore or cross-shore and fresh, churning up the surface into a cross-chop. Honestly, it's not even worth paddling out. The energy is weak to moderate, with values in the 200 to 300 range, and it’s just not translating into anything rideable. There’s a notable jump in size around Friday the 14th, with the swell bumping up over 7ft and energy climbing to 552 and then 594, but it’s still coming with those same messy winds. This looks better for the kitesurfers than for us paddle surfers, to be honest.

Then we get to the weekend and the energy really starts to build. Saturday the 15th sees strong breezes, but they're more cross-off, which at least cleans things up a bit. The swell is up around 8ft to 8ft from the ENE with a period of 10 seconds, and the energy is cranking into the 947 to 1079 range – that's strong, powerful surf. By Sunday the 16th, the wind flips onshore, and the swell gets to 8ft with a period of 11 seconds. That's a lot of water, and it’s pushing over 5ft so it’s too big for beginners, and getting close to the limit for anyone but experts. The energy is up around 1312 to 1435, so there's plenty of grunt in it.

Now, the one real glimmer of hope in this entire forecast is Monday morning, the 17th. The wind finally eases to a gentle breeze, which will be a godsend. The swell holds at 8ft from the ENE with a period of 11 seconds, and the energy peaks at a very strong 2170. The wind is still cross, but light, so there might be a short window of cleaner conditions. Still, it's a reef and point set-up, and a long-period swell like that at a point, well, that could be something. It’s the best on offer, but even then, it's only rated as marginal. Take it for what it’s worth.

After that, it's back to the same old story. From the 18th onwards, the swell drops, the wind picks back up, and we’re looking at poor surf with weak to moderate energy all the way through to the 25th. There are a few pulses in size later, like on the 23rd and 24th, pushing back up to around 7ft, but the wind is fresh cross-shore and the energy is only moderate, in the 500 range. It's going to be a mess.

So, to sum it up, mark Monday the 17th on your calendar. That’s the standout, the only real chance of a decent wave. Everything else is a waiting game. Keep the faith, and we’ll see what the ocean gives us.

Rusty.

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