Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a honest look at what’s on the table for Rock Point/Pohakuloa over the next couple of weeks. I’ll level with you straight up – the outlook is a tough one. This is a reef and point setup that’s inconsistent by nature, and the forecast is serving up a long, frustrating stretch of onshore winds and messy cross-chop. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

The pattern for the entire 16-day window is dominated by a persistent cross-shore wind from the east and east-northeast, blowing at 18 to 25 mph for most of the first week. This blows out any chance of clean surf. The swell is coming from the east, bumping into the wave period which is short, mostly 6 to 8 seconds – that’s windswell, not groundswell, so the waves lack shape and punch. The combined energy of all swells directed here kicks off at 776 (moderate) on Friday morning, July 31st, but it’s paired with “poor surf conditions” and a score of zero. That’s a hard pass.

Friday, July 31st and Saturday, August 1st see swell heights climbing to 8 ft to 10 ft, but with 25 mph cross-shore winds and that short period, it’s just a choppy, chunky mess. The energy peaks at 1023 on Saturday afternoon, but it’s worthless for paddling. Sunday, August 2nd is the same story – 8 ft to 8 ft, but still fresh cross-shore. For beginners, that 8 ft is too big, and with the wind, it’s not even fun for the experienced crew.

We get a slight glimmer on Monday, August 3rd. The wind drops to 12 mph, swell drops to 5 ft to 6 ft, and the energy falls to 519-531. The score is a 1 out of 10, and it’s described as “marginal.” The best of the whole run, and I say this with a heavy heart, is Tuesday, August 4th. The wind eases to a gentle breeze of 9 mph, so it’s just a cross-shore with a slight cross-chop. The swell sits at 5 ft to 6 ft, with the period jumping to 11 seconds – that’s a groundswell, which is a positive. The combined energy is 561-655 (moderate). This is the only day in the whole run that I’d even consider. It’s still not glassy, but it’s the cleanest we’ll see. The break is inconsistent, and it’s often crowded, so you’ll have company.

After that, from Wednesday, August 5th, right through to Saturday, August 15th, it’s a long, bleak gap. The wind picks back up to 15-22 mph, the swell drops to 4 ft to 6 ft, and the period stays short at 6-8 seconds. Energy levels drop to between 139 and 355. The scores are all zeros. There’s nothing to recommend. The swell directions are all east or east-northeast, which is the optimum direction for this break, but the wind just ruins it every time. The setup is really more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing during this stretch.

So, the only standout is Tuesday, August 4th. It’s a far cry from epic, but it’s the only window with a chance of a few clean ones. Keep your expectations low, and you might get a couple of fun ones.

Rusty.

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