Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for the next couple weeks.

The only real option on the menu is Rock Point/Pohakuloa, a reef and point break that’s exposed to the NE swell. It’s a known inconsistency – it doesn’t just turn on whenever it wants. But when it does, and with the right wind, it can be a gem.

First up, Wednesday, July 29th morning is your window. We’ve got a clean NE swell coming in at about 6 ft with a 9-second period. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the north, and the water temp is 79°, right in line with average for this time of year. Combined swell energy is moderate at 615. That’s the best we’re going to see. If you score that session, bring a crowd – this spot often has company. It’s intermediate-level territory; at 6 ft it’s not for beginners, but an experienced surfer will find plenty to love.

After that morning, it’s a tough run. Wednesday afternoon the wind goes cross and the numbers drop. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st are blown out with strong cross-shore winds up to 22 mph, lumpy chop, and poor conditions. Saturday the 1st of August gets even uglier – swell hits 10 ft but the wind is muscling in at 25 mph from the ENE with a messy cross-chop. That’s big and ugly, strictly for experts, and even then it’s not going to be fun. The combined energy readout jumps into four digits (1008 and 1112), meaning there’s plenty of power, but no one’s going to love that wind.

Sunday the 2nd is similar. Strong breeze continues, cross-shore, lumpy. Not worth paddling out unless you’re a masochist.

Now, there is a little flicker of hope. Tuesday, August 4th afternoon – the forecast shows the wind turning slightly lighter, cross-offshore, with a NE groundswell at 5 ft and a longer 11-second period. Combined energy still moderate at 578. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the only other standout in the whole 16-day run. Keep an eye on it, but it’s more than a week out, so treat it as promising, not a sure thing.

From August 5th onward, the entire period collapses into a string of poor conditions – cross-shore winds, short periods, messy chop. The swell stays around 5 ft to 7 ft but the wind never cooperates. August 10th through the 13th is a write-off: raw cross-shore winds at 19 mph, periods dropping to 6-7 seconds, and combined energy falling from 422 down to 169. That’s weak, messy, and not worth the paddle.

Bottom line: Wednesday morning, July 29th is your best bet by far, with Tuesday August 4th afternoon as a maybe if you’re feeling patient. For the rest, stay home, wax another board, and wait for a better day.

Rusty.

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