Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at Rock Point/Pohakuloa. I gotta be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one to read. The whole 16-day window is looking pretty grim, with hardly a session worth paddling out for. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing but poor, lumpy conditions.

We start off on Sunday, August 30th, and the story is the same right through the first week and into the second. The wind is locked in from the ENE, blowing a solid 18 to 25 mph, and it’s cross-shore the whole time. That’s creating a nasty, lumpy cross-chop on the surface. The swell is hanging around 6 ft to 8 ft, mostly from the ENE with a short, weak period of 7 to 8 seconds. The combined energy is moderate at best, hitting around 348 to 642 (moderate wave energy), but it’s all just messy, poor surf. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so don’t expect any surprises there.

There’s a short gap of total silence, but then it gets even bigger. From Saturday, September 5th into Sunday the 6th, the swell pushes up to 8 ft to 10 ft, and the wind gets stronger, hitting 28 mph. This is getting into the “too big for beginners” and “only for experts” territory, but honestly, with the 28 mph cross-shore wind, it’s just a washing machine. The combined energy climbs to 989 (strong wave energy), but it’s all for nothing. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Now, there is one tiny glimmer in the middle of all this. By Wednesday, September 9th, the swell is predicted to be a solid 10 ft from the ENE with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 1913 (strong wave energy). The wind finally drops to a light 6 mph, and the forecast says the wind and tide are favorable. BUT – and this is a big but – the forecast also says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. It’s a 10 ft wave hitting a reef and point setup, which for a spot that’s *inconsistent*, is a serious red flag. It’s a Thursday morning, so crowds might be possible, but the size is going to put it squarely in the expert-only zone. It’s a promising but less certain call that far out.

After that, it’s back to the same old story. The wind picks back up, the swell drops, and we’re back to poor surf conditions through to Monday, September 14th. The combined energy fades right down to 158 (weak wave energy) by the end.

So, the honest truth? There’s no standout here. The best on offer is the morning of September 9th, but it’s a gamble for experts only, and even then, the break might close out. Unless you’re a masochist or a kiter, leave the boards at home for this one.

Rusty.

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