Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what we’ve got on the cards for Rock Point/Pohakuloa over the next couple of weeks.

First off, the water temp is sitting at a pretty standard 80°, which is exactly where it should be for late July – nothing weird going on there.

I’m not gonna sugarcoat it: the start of this outlook is grim. We’re looking at a full stretch of poor surf and lumpy, cross-shore winds slamming the place from Wednesday the 22nd all the way through Sunday the 26th. The swell is showing up, sure – chest to head-high at times (6 ft to 7 ft) – but that ENE wind is out of the east-northeast at a solid 18-19 mph, just chopping everything to bits. The energy is actually there, hitting the moderate mark (369 to 592), but it’s a total write-off for a clean wave. You don’t want to be out there unless you love a wrestling match with the wind.

We get a wee glimmer of hope starting Sunday the 26th afternoon, but it’s still marginal. The swell period jumps to 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy – and the combined energy spikes up big time, hitting strong (1075) to very strong (over 1400) through Monday and Tuesday. But that cross-shore wind is persisting, and the forecast calls it "marginal surf" or "questionable tide." It ain’t pretty.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting for the patient surfer. Mark your calendars for Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th. The wind swings around to a cross-offshore (NE at 12 mph), and the wave heights sit at a solid 5 ft to 6 ft with a long period of 12-13 seconds. The energy is strong (1208 to 870), and the comments shift to "clean." That’s a word you want to hear. The quality is still marked marginal, but for Rock Point – an inconsistent, intermediate reef and point break that’s often crowded – this is the best we’re gonna see in this run. The swell is coming from the east, which is close to the optimum NE direction. It won’t be pumping perfection, but compared to the rest of this forecast, it’s the standout. Expect some company though – "often" crowded means the other guys who’ve been watching the charts will be there.

Thursday the 30th is also worth a look. Clean conditions with a light breeze (6-9 mph) and a tidy 4 ft to 5 ft. Nice, but smaller.

Then we hit another rough patch. From Friday the 31st of July onward, the wind cranks back up – strong breeze at 25 mph from the east-northeast on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday the 2nd of August. The surf gets lumpy and messy again. The swell sticks around, even getting up to a beefy 8 ft on the 2nd, but with that wind, it’s just a washing machine. You’d be better off with a kite than a paddle during that stretch.

Fast forward to the second week. Tuesday the 4th of August afternoon shows a real shift: a 8 ft swell from the east-northeast with a super long 14-second period, and the energy is an enormous 3798 – that is a serious pulse of power. But the wind is still a moderate cross-shore, so while the ocean has juice, the surface will be a bit lumpy. The score is marginal.

Then on Thursday the 6th of August, the forecast throws a curveball. We’ve got a 10 ft swell, long period (12 seconds), and gentle cross-shore wind. The energy is absolutely pumping at 3705 and 3043. But here’s the big catch – the notes say it’s predicted to be *too big* for this break. That kind of size, combined with the swell direction not being perfect, means it’s just gonna close out or be dangerous. Experts only, and even then, it’s a maybe. The wind is light and cross, which is nice, but the swell is just too much for this reef and point setup.

So, to sum it up: the true standouts are Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th of July. The surf won’t be epic, but you’ll get clean, rideable waves (5 ft-6 ft) at Rock Point with a cross-offshore breeze. Get on it then, because the rest of the window is either blown out, too small, or too big. Keep your eyes peeled for that Thursday the 6th of August swell too – but from the channel, not the lineup.

Rusty.

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