Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get real about the stretch ahead.

Honestly, looking at the whole 16 days, it’s a tough run for Rock Point/Pohakuloa. The wind is relentless, and the wave quality just isn’t there. There’s no standout day, and for most of the period, it’s going to be a battle with lumpy, cross-shore chop and poor surf conditions. The first surf recommendation doesn’t even kick in until Friday the 3rd, and even then, it’s a struggle. There’s a long stretch of "poor surf conditions" from day one all the way through to the end, so don’t expect any magic windows.

We start on Friday, July 3rd, with a 6ft swell from the ENE at 8 seconds. That’s a short-period, choppy windswell, and combined with a 16 mph cross-shore breeze, it’s just messy. The combined energy is moderate at 368. The water is sitting at 79°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. This pattern sticks hard through the weekend and into Monday the 6th, with the swell bumping up to 7ft but still a short 7 seconds, and the wind picking up to 19-22 mph. It’s all cross-shore and lumpy – honestly, it looks more like a day for the kite crew than a paddle session.

Tuesday the 7th sees the biggest swell of the run, hitting 8ft from the ENE with a short 7-second period. The combined wave energy climbs to 519 (moderate energy), but with that fresh 22 mph cross-wind, it’s likely a washing machine. For experts, maybe there’s something in there, but it’s not inviting. The swell drops a bit into the second week, from Wednesday the 8th onward, with heights between 4ft and 6ft, but the story is the same: cross-shore winds and that short, weak period.

By the time we hit the weekend of July 11th, the swell is down to 4ft, and we even get some rain showers. The wind backs off slightly to 19 mph, but it’s still cross-shore. The pattern barely improves through the middle of July – the wind sometimes eases to 9 mph on the 13th and 14th, but it’s still a cross-shore, and the swell period gets as low as 6 seconds. On Thursday the 16th, there’s a risk of thunderstorms and the swell drops right off to 3ft from the NNE, with a combined energy of just 201. That’s weak. Nothing improves through the final days to July 18th – it’s still cross-shore, short-period junk.

For this break, which is a reef and point setup that doesn’t break often and can be inconsistent, the optimum swell direction is from the NE. We’re getting ENE almost the whole time, which isn’t ideal for this spot. Crowds are often an issue here, but with this forecast, I don’t think you’ll have to worry about company. It’s a blank run. Sometimes that happens here. Forecasts can change, but for now, I’d be looking elsewhere or getting the kite gear ready.

Rusty.

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