Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, this is a tough run. Rock Point/Pohakuloa (reef and point) is the only spot on the radar, and honestly, the wind is going to be a major pain in the arse for the foreseeable future. The whole 16-day window is pretty much a write-off for quality paddle surfing. There’s no real standout period, and the conditions are locked into a pattern we don’t want.

Right now and for the next two weeks, we’re looking at a constant cross-shore wind, mostly from the ENE. It’s a fresh breeze, 18-22 mph through most of the first week, which is just going to tear the surface apart. You’re getting lumpy, choppy, poor surf conditions day after day, even though there’s a persistent swell in the water. The swell is coming from the ENE, running at about 6 ft to 8 ft. The period is short though, only 7-8 seconds, so it’s windswell, not groundswell. The energy is moderate, with combined energy values sitting between 300 and 590 for most of that first week. It’s not flat, but it’s ugly.

There’s a brief moment around the 13th of July where the wind drops to 15 mph, but it’s still cross-shore, so you’re still dealing with a messy cross-chop. Not worth the paddle.

The second week, from the 18th of July onward, the swell actually picks up. On the morning of the 18th, we’re looking at a solid 10 ft from the ENE, with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1423 (strong energy). That’s a lot of power, but the wind is still cross-shore at 22 mph, making it a washing machine. That’s expert-level size and a messy setup. By the 21st of July, the swell drops to 3 ft but the period jumps to 18 seconds—a very long-period groundswell from the east. The energy is still strong (838), and the break is a reef and point, which is the right kind of spot for that kind of swell. The wind is still cross-shore at 15 mph, so it’s not clean, but the 22nd of July afternoon gets a “marginal” nod. The swell is 4 ft from the east, 17-second period, energy 1089. That’s promising on paper, but the wind is moderate and cross-shore, which is a killer. It’s a tease.

Honestly, this is a grim outlook. The water temperature is 79°, which is about average for the time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re getting frustrated. But for the whole 16 days, we’ve got zero clean surf. The cross-shore wind just never lets up. If you’re a kiter, the setup actually looks more interesting than paddle surfing, because that cross-shore wind is solid and consistent. For a surfer, I’d say save your energy and check the forecast again in a few days. This blank run is pretty normal for the area when the trades don’t back off.

Rusty.

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