Rock Point/Pohakuloa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this outlook for Rock Point/Pohakuloa is a tough one. This is a reef and point setup that’s inconsistent and only really works when the swell comes from the north-northwest, but we’ve got nothing but easterly energy for the entire 16-day window. That means the surf is going to be poor for the first week and a half, with hardly any decent session on the cards.

The first week is a write-off. From Saturday the 18th right through to the end of July, it’s a relentless run of cross-shore winds, lumpy chop, and messy waves. Swell heights bounce between 4ft and 7ft, but that’s all from the east or east-northeast – the wrong direction for this spot. Winds are 12 to 22 mph, mostly from the east, and they’re crossing up the surface. The combined wave energy sits moderate for most of that stretch, around 200 to 700 (moderate energy), but it doesn’t help when the quality’s gone. Not a single day scores above a zero in the first week. Crowds are often an issue here, but honestly, I don’t think many will be paddling out.

Things start to look a little different around Sunday the 26th of July. We get a pulse of very long-period swell crossing the 15-second mark – 16 to 17 seconds – coming from the east. That’s a groundswell with serious energy, with combined readings hitting 1658 up to 2383 (strong to very strong energy). Swell heights are 5ft to 7ft, and the water temp is about 80°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year. Here’s the catch: the wind is still cross-shore from the east-northeast at 12 to 16 mph, and the direction is still wrong. This long-period east swell is prone to closing out at this point break, and the wind will keep it messy. That’s why it’s only a marginal call – the potential is there, but the conditions will fight you.

The best look we get is Tuesday the 28th of July afternoon. The swell drops a touch to 7ft from the east, period 13 seconds, combined energy 1480 (strong). The wind swings around to the northeast and goes cross-offshore, cleaning up the surface. This is the only window in the whole 16 days where the wind’s not ruining it. The swell direction still isn’t ideal, but that clean face will make it rideable for intermediate surfers. It’s a glimmer, not a classic.

From Wednesday the 29th onwards, it’s back to poor conditions. Swell drops off, period shortens, and the cross-shore wind returns. By the time we hit August, it’s just more of the same – 6ft to 7ft from the east-northeast on a short period, with fresh cross-shore winds. Not worth the paddle.

Bottom line: if you’re desperate, aim for the afternoon of Tuesday the 28th of July. It’s the only clean-ish window, but don’t expect perfection. This is a spot that really needs a north-northwest swell, and we’re not getting one. The rest of the run is a blank.

Rusty.

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