Flemming Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer.

Honestly, it’s a pretty bleak run ahead at Flemming Beach Park. We’re looking at a stretch where conditions stay poor right through the entire 16-day window. There’s nothing that I’d call a proper surf session in there, so temper your expectations right from the start.

Things open up on Thursday afternoon, July 2nd, with some NE swell around 6 ft but a short period of only 8 seconds and a fresh cross-off breeze from the ENE at 19 mph. The combined energy is moderate (400), but the water temp sits at 79°, which is about average for the time of year. The problem is the wind and the poor surf conditions tag. That setup holds through the weekend. Saturday the 4th has a similar 5 ft NE swell, again short period (8 secs), moderate energy (308), but still cross-off wind. Sunday morning the 5th bumps to 5 ft NE, 8 secs, 300 energy, but still not clean enough to recommend.

Monday the 6th sees the swell get a bit bigger – 5 ft NE in the morning with 265 energy, then 7 ft NE by the afternoon pushing 433 energy. Period drops to 7 seconds though, and the wind stays a fresh 22 mph cross-off. That much size with such a short period and strong side wind is going to be a mess. Anything over 5 ft at a beach and reef spot like this with those winds might be more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session.

From Tuesday the 7th onward, it’s tiny. Swell heights drop to 0.3 ft or even flat, and that flat spell stretches through Wednesday the 8th with zero energy. A few pulses of very long-period W and SW swell creep in from Thursday the 9th (16 secs, 0.3-0.7 ft), but the energy is weak (5–20) and the wind never lets up. That pattern of nearly flat, weak W/SW groundswell continues right through to the end of the forecast on Friday the 17th of July. The energy does climb a bit mid-period – up to 260 on Monday the 13th – but heights stay around 2-2 ft with that constant ENE cross-off wind. It’s just not lining up for quality waves.

So, the long and short of it: there are no standout days. No break to highlight. The whole forecast is a gap. For an area like this, when the wind doesn’t play ball and the swell direction is off, a blank run is not unusual. Keep an eye on it – the long-period pulses suggest there’s some energy out there, but until the wind swings, it’s not going to come together.

Rusty.

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