Flemming Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Flemming Beach Park over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – there’s a long, flat, and pretty hopeless stretch ahead. For the first week and a half, from Monday July 27th right through to the end of the first week of August, the surf is just not happening. The wind is mostly howling from the NE and ENE, side-offshore or cross-shore, but the swell is tiny or non-existent. We’re looking at a lot of days with less than 2ft and combined energy readings often below 100 (weak), which is basically a lake. Even the moderate energy days (215) on the 27th have poor surf conditions, and a short period of 7 seconds with a 15 mph cross-shore wind means it’s just messy, onshore chop. The water temperature is sitting at 80°F with a 0.5°F anomaly, which is pretty average for the time of year, but that’s small comfort when there’s nothing to ride.

The first real glimmer of hope, and I do mean glimmer, is on Wednesday morning, July 29th. The wind finally swings around to a light SE offshore at 9 mph, and we get a 5ft NE swell with a period of 9 seconds (moderate energy, 304). The guidance says “expect good surf conditions,” and with that offshore flow, it’ll be clean. It’s a consistent spot, so the waves will be there, but the size is only waist-high, maybe a touch bigger. The swell is from the NE, and the optimum direction for this spot is NW, so it’s not the best angle. Still, it’s the only morning we’ll get a rideable wave in the first week. It’s not a standout, but it’s the best of a bad bunch.

After that, we’re back into a flat spell. The ENE wind stays on, and the swell dies again. There’s a tiny spike on Monday afternoon, August 3rd, with 5ft from the NE and a period of 8 seconds (moderate energy, 248), but the wind is still cross-offshore and the conditions are just poor. Then on Tuesday afternoon, August 4th, the swell jumps to 5ft from the NE with a period of 11 seconds, showing strong energy (637), but again, the wind is a moderate cross-offshore, and the forecast says “poor surf conditions.” That one could be a bit of a lumpy, bumpy mess for experts only, but it’s not clean.

The second week doesn’t get much better. The wind just won’t let up. We see a few flickers of long-period swell on the 7th and 8th of August – 2ft from the W with a period of 15 seconds – but the energy is moderate (119 to 163) and the wind is still a fresh ENE cross-offshore. It’s clean, but tiny. The only real chance in the second week is on Monday morning, August 10th. We get a 4ft NE swell with a 7-second period, light wind, and the report says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It’s not great, but it’s the only non-zero score in the whole outlook.

Honestly, for the entire 16 days, there’s no standout session. The best on offer is that Wednesday morning, July 29th, with the offshore wind and a clean 5ft wave. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the only time you won’t be fighting the wind. The rest of the time, with the persistent ENE cross-offshore breeze and small, weak swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The water is warm enough, but the waves are just not cooperating.

Rusty.

Read more