Flemming Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this 16-day outlook for Flemming Beach Park is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing much to get excited about. The first real surf worth paddling for doesn’t show up until Sunday the 11th of July, so expect a quiet start with a few days of tiny, weak waves that won’t get your heart racing.

From Sunday afternoon, July 5th through to Saturday morning, July 10th, the swell is mostly under 2 ft, with short period and barely any energy (combined energy values sitting between 3 and 49). The wind is a persistent cross-off from the east-northeast, 16 to 22 mph, which keeps the surface clean but doesn’t do much for wave quality when there’s so little size. Water temperature is 80° with an anomaly of 1°, so about average for this time of year.

Now, the first real pulse of swell arrives on Saturday morning, July 11th. We see a long-period groundswell from the southwest at 1 ft with a 18-second period, but the combined energy climbs to 122 (moderate) and the wave comment is still “poor surf conditions.” Not a standout. That afternoon, things shift: a 6 ft northeast swell with a 7-second period shows up, energy jumps to 438 (strong), but again, the comment says poor surf. The wind remains cross-off ENE at 19 mph. It’s clean but not clean enough to fix the quality.

Sunday the 12th of July brings a similar story—morning sees 5 ft from the northeast, 8-second period, energy at 437 (strong), but still poor surf. The wind lightens slightly to 16 mph. Afternoon drops back to 2 ft southwest groundswell with a 16-second period. The rest of the forecast through to Monday the 20th of July is dominated by southwest to west-northwest groundswells, 1 ft to 2 ft, with periods between 13 and 19 seconds. Combined energy values hover between 100 and 301 (moderate to strong), but every single entry reads “poor surf conditions.” The wind stays cross-off from the ENE, 12–19 mph.

Honestly, out of this entire run, the only moment worth highlighting is the Sunday afternoon, July 12th session. The southwest groundswell at 2 ft with a 16-second period offers longer lines and more shape, and the combined energy of 187 (moderate) suggests there’s a bit of punch. Plus, the wind is a moderate breeze at 16 mph, keeping things clean. But it’s not a standout day—just the best of a quiet bunch. This is a consistent break, so it tends not to stay poor for long, and forecasts can change. But for now, Flemming Beach Park is a place to maybe sit on the sand rather than paddle out.

Rusty.

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