Flemming Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break down what’s coming. I’ll be honest, this 16-day stretch is looking pretty lean. There’s no standout session that’s gonna get me stoked, and the first real wave doesn’t pop up until Wednesday the 15th of July. After that, there are big gaps of flatness.

We kick off on Wednesday the 15th at Flemming Beach Park. It’s a beach and reef setup, pretty exposed, and consistent when it gets swell. We’re looking at a 2ft wave from the WNW, with a long period of 15 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, so it’ll have some push, but the combined energy is 283 (moderate), so it’s not firing. The wind is a cross-off from the ENE at 12 mph, which keeps the surface clean, but it’s not quite offshore. Water temp is about average for this time of year. The waves are small, under 5ft, so it’s fine for beginners, but for the rest of us, it’s a bit of a groveler. The tide might be a factor, so pick your window. Crowds are often here, so you won’t be alone.

Thursday the 16th, the wind picks up to 19 mph from the ENE, still cross-off, but that fresh breeze is gonna put a bit of a texture on the water. The swell stays around 2ft from the W, period dropping to 14 seconds, energy still moderate (223). The score is a zero, so I’d skip it. Friday the 17th, it’s more of the same—tiny 2ft waves, fresh breeze, poor surf. Energy drops to 138. Saturday the 18th, it’s even smaller, 1ft, with a 13-second period, energy weak (73). By Sunday the 19th, we’re down to 0.6ft to 1ft, energy in the teens. It’s a rough stretch.

Then on Monday the 20th, the afternoon brings a 4ft wave from the NE, but with a short period of 7 seconds, and energy of 187 (moderate). That’s a messy windswell. The wind is still 12 mph cross-off, so it’s clean, but the quality is poor. No good.

Tuesday the 21st, it’s back to tiny 0.6ft to 1ft from the SW with long periods (16-17 seconds), but the energy is weak (27-42). Not worth it.

From Wednesday the 22nd to Thursday the 23rd morning, there’s absolutely no swell. A total flat spell. Thursday afternoon the 23rd, a tiny 1ft from the SW creeps in, but it’s not enough. Friday the 24th, we get a little pulse—2ft from the SW, period 18 seconds, energy jumps to 154 (moderate). The wind is a cross-off 12-15 mph, so it’s clean. But 2ft on a long period is going to look like a lake at a beach break, with the waves breaking too straight. It’s a better setup for a point or reef, but we’re at a beach and reef mix, so it’s marginal.

Saturday the 25th, the wind swings to a cross-shore from the NE at 12 mph, creating a bit of a cross-chop. The swell is 2ft in the morning, dropping to 1ft in the afternoon. Energy is moderate (142) then weak (12). The wind is not helping, and the surf is poor. Sunday the 26th, the swell shifts to the NW at 1ft, period 10-11 seconds, energy weak (25-31). Wind is still cross-off, so it’s clean, but there’s barely any push.

The rest of the run from Monday the 27th through to Wednesday the 29th is tiny—1ft to 1ft from the NNW, period 8-10 seconds, with weak energy (14-38). Clean, yes, but not surfable for anyone looking for a proper wave. Thursday the 30th, we get a 1ft from the W, period 12 seconds, energy 59 (weak). The wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-off, so it’s onshore enough to kill it.

For the whole 16 days, there’s no standout. The best of a bad bunch is that Wednesday the 15th, with the 2ft groundswell, but it’s still a small, average day. Given the persistent onshore cross-off winds and the small size, this setup at Flemming Beach Park looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. There’s a big gap of flat days in the middle, and the rest is just poor quality. It’s a tough outlook, but in this area, a blank run like this is more normal than you’d hope. Forecasts change, so keep an eye on it, but for now, I’d leave the board in the garage.

Rusty.

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