Publics Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut to it—this forecast window through the 27th of September is a mixed bag, and the early days are pretty quiet. The water’s sitting at about 82°, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit.

Starting Saturday the 12th, we’ve got a tiny 0.5m SW swell with a 16-second period. Combined energy is only 222, so it’s weak. Winds are light cross-off from the ENE at 15 km/h, so it’ll be clean, but there’s barely a wave to ride. Sunday and Monday follow the same story—0.3m to 0.5m, long-period SW swells, weak energy. Winds pick up a touch on Monday to 25 km/h, but still cross-off and clean. Not worth the paddle.

Tuesday the 15th bumps to 0.7m with a 20-second period, and energy climbs to 438. Still weak, still clean, but nothing special. Wednesday the 16th sees 0.9m, period drops to 18 seconds, and energy jumps to 562—moderate now, but the wind is fresher at 35 km/h. It’s cross-off, so clean, but the size is still small. The first five days are a warm-up, nothing more.

Then things get messy. Thursday the 17th brings a jump to 2.1m–2.2m, but it’s from the ENE with a short period of 7–10 seconds. That’s windswell, not groundswell. Energy is strong—862 in the morning, 1370 in the afternoon—but the short period means it’s lumpy and disorganised. Fresh cross-off winds, but the wave quality is poor. This is kite territory, not paddle territory.

Friday the 18th drops back to 1.0m with a 17-second period, energy still high at 1247. There’s a risk of thunderstorms in the morning, and the wind is moderate to fresh cross-off. Clean, but marginal. Saturday the 19th pushes back to 1.7m, but again from the ENE with a short 8-second period. Strong energy at 890, but the short period kills it. Same for Sunday the 20th—2.2m in the morning, 1.9m in the afternoon, ENE short-period windswell, strong energy, poor quality. Fresh cross-off winds, but you’re fighting close-outs.

From Monday the 21st through Wednesday the 23rd, we’re stuck: 1.7m to 2.1m, ENE swell, periods of 8–10 seconds, strong energy, and moderate to fresh cross-off winds. Clean looking, but poor shape. Thursday the 24th drops slightly to 1.4m in the morning, then 1.6m in the afternoon, still ENE, still short period, still marginal.

Now, Friday the 25th, the wind switches to a light SE cross-on at 10–15 km/h. The swell drops to 0.9m in the morning, 0.7m in the afternoon, with a period back up to 14–16 seconds. Energy is moderate at 524, but the cross-on wind makes it choppy. Not great.

But then—Saturday the 26th. That’s the standout. We’ve got 0.8m of SW swell with a 15-second period, and the wind is a light ENE cross-off at 10–15 km/h. Energy is moderate at 450 in the morning, dropping to 434 in the afternoon. This is clean, glassy, and the long period means the waves will have some push. It’s small, but it’s the best on offer. Publics will be the spot—beach and reef setup, exposed to the SW, so this direction lines up nicely. Crowds are always a factor, so expect company, but the quality will be worth it.

Sunday the 27th fades back to 0.7m with a 14-second period, moderate energy, and moderate cross-off winds. Clean but weakening.

Bottom line: Saturday the 26th is your day. The rest of the second week, especially the 17th through the 24th, is big but messy—short-period windswell, not worth the hassle for most. Beginners should steer clear of anything over 1.5m, and that stretch from the 17th to the 24th is well over that with terrible shape. If you’re a kite surfer, that messy stretch might look more appealing.

Stay patient, pick your day, and don’t force it.

Rusty.

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