Publics Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s on the table for Publics over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a rough patch for a while.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a big gap with no real surf on offer. The good news doesn’t start until Saturday, July 13th, and even then it’s a slow burner. The water is sitting at a pretty normal 79°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a write-off. Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th? Forget it. We’ve got a 7ft to 7ft ENE windswell pumping in, but it’s being hammered by a strong cross-offshore breeze from the ENE at 25 mph. The combined energy is moderate (638 to 903), but the conditions are just poor. The period is short, around 7 seconds, so it’s all chop and no shape. Not worth paddling out for.

Monday the 13th scrapes a marginal rating. The swell drops to 6ft from the ENE, still with a short 8-second period, and the wind is still a cross-off at 22 mph. The energy is still moderate (687), but the quality isn’t there. It’s a beach and reef setup here, so with the wind and sloppy swell, it’s more of a kite session than a paddle one.

From Tuesday the 14th through to Thursday the 16th, the swell drops right off. We’re looking at 2ft to 2ft leftovers from the SSW and SW, with some longer periods (13 to 17 seconds) but not enough size to do anything with. The combined energy gets weak (160 to 294). Those are flat spells.

Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th see a pulse of ENE windswell come back to 5ft to 6ft, but it’s still a short period (7 seconds) and the wind is up at 25 mph. The energy is moderate (329 to 481), but it’s all cross-off wind and short period junky. Not a stand-out.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The best window, and I mean the only real highlight, is from Sunday the 20th of July through to Wednesday the 23rd of July. The swell holds steady at 6ft to 7ft from the ENE, with a slightly better 7 to 8 second period. The wind is still a cross-off, but it drops to a manageable 19 to 22 mph. The combined energy climbs into the strong range (642 to 864). These are all marginal calls, but this is the pick of the bunch. The swell direction is coming from the ENE, which is close to the optimum SSE direction, so it’s firing a bit better. Expect crowds at Publics though – it’s always busy here.

A small caveat: on the 23rd of July, we get a pulse of long-period SSW groundswell (20 seconds, 3ft) and combined energy of 860. That’s a very long period, which means it’s going to be super clean and straight, but it’s small. At a beach and reef setup, it might be a bit too straight for a good wall, but for the experienced crew, it could offer some sneaky, clean lines with the ENE cross-off.

The tail end of the period, the 24th to the 26th of July, is a mix of marginal SSW groundswell and ENE windswell. The 25th of July (Saturday) sees 7ft ENE windswell with moderate energy (814), but it’s still cross-off and short period. It’s a maybe, but don’t get your hopes up.

Bottom line: The first week is a total washout. The real action, if you can call it that, is from the 20th to the 23rd of July. That’s your best bet, but it’s still a marginal call thanks to the cross-off wind. If you’re desperate, go for the 20th to the 23rd. Otherwise, save your energy.

Rusty.

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