Publics Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s on the table for Publics. There’s a lot of forecast to get through, but you’ll have to be patient because the first week and a half is pretty much a write-off for a decent paddle. We’re looking at a long, frustrating gap before any real hope shows up.

The core problem is that nasty cross-off wind from the ENE that just won’t let up. It's blowing hard, 19-31 mph, for the first few days, chopping everything up. The swell is there, but it’s messy. From Wednesday, August 12th through to Monday, August 17th, it’s a grim picture. We’ve got a solid, long-period groundswell from the S and SSE pushing moderate energy into the beach – you can see the energy readings in the 800-900 range and even blowing past 1000 on the 14th and 15th – but that wind is killing it. The water is a warm 81°, about average for this time of year.

The worst of it is the 15th and 16th of August. The swell jumps up to 12 ft to 13 ft from the E and ENE, with combined energy readings of 1829 and 2563 – that’s strong to very strong stuff. But it’s accompanied by a near-gale force wind at 31 mph. That’s not a surfing setup, that’s a kite-surfing dream. For a beginner, that’s way too big, and for anyone else, the wind is just too savage.

Things don’t get any better. The pattern continues with strong cross-off winds and marginal conditions. The swell period drops to a short, weak 7-8 seconds on the 18th and 19th, with energy falling to the 300-400 range. We get a few glimpses of cleaner, longer-period S and SSW swells from the 19th onward (periods of 14-18 seconds), but the wind is still a cross-off breeze, and the wave heights are small, mostly 2 ft to 4 ft. The forecast scores are consistently low, rating it “poor” or “marginal” right through to the 27th of August. There’s just no window where the wind and swell line up for a clean, rideable wave.

The best bet on offer? It’s a thin one. Look at the morning of Thursday, August 25th. The swell is 4 ft from the SSW, with a period of 16 seconds. That’s a proper long-period groundswell. The wind is ENE at 19 mph, so it’s still cross-off, but the energy is up to 779 – a moderate pulse. It’s far from perfect, but it’s the most promising thing in this whole 16-day window. The swell direction is a match for the optimum direction for this spot, and the long period will give the waves some shape. Don’t expect a classic day, but it might be the only one worth a look. The morning of the 25th is the standout.

So, the honest truth is, if you’re looking for a good surf at Publics, this forecast is a bust for the first week and a half. From the 12th to the 24th, it’s a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions. The only real hope is that window around the 25th, but even then, it’s a gamble. The crowds will be there, as always, but I doubt there’ll be much competition for waves.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the charts. Things can change, but right now, it’s a tough call.

Rusty.

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