Publics Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. To be upfront, the next week and a half is looking like a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a block of poor surf conditions that will test your patience. The first real glimmer of anything worthwhile doesn’t pop up until the very end of the run. So, settle in, this is a long stretch with not much to recommend.

The outlook starts with a pretty grim run from Thursday the 9th of July straight through to the 20th of July. For day after day, we’re looking at short-period, wind-affected swell that’s just not cooperating. The wind is a relentless cross-off from the ENE, blowing at 22 to 25 mph most days, which is ripping the surface apart. The swell is here, sure, but it’s mostly 6 ft to 8 ft from the ENE with a period of only 7 to 8 seconds – that’s weak, junky, onshore-style energy. The combined wave energy for these days sits between 444 and 978 (moderate energy), but it’s all for nothing with that wind. Conditions are consistently marked as “poor surf conditions” or “marginal” at best. This is not a paddle situation; it’s more of a look-at-the-ocean-from-the-car-park kind of week. Honestly, for a beach-and-reef setup like Publics, this stiff onshore breeze and short-period chop makes it look far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

There’s a tiny tease on the morning of Tuesday the 14th of July when a 2 ft, 14-second swell from the SW shows up, but it’s immediately swept away by the same ENE wind. It’s a ghost of a possibility.

Now, the real light at the end of the tunnel, and the only true standout in this whole 16-day window, is showing up on the 21st and 22nd of July. This is a long-range call, so keep your expectations in check, but it looks promising. On Tuesday the 21st of July, we finally see a shift. The swell is still from the ENE, but the period jumps to 18 to 19 seconds. That’s very long-period groundswell energy. The heights are modest at 4 ft to 4 ft, but the combined energy rockets up to 1516 and 1728 (strong to very strong wave energy). This is the kind of deep, powerful pulse that can wrap in and offer some real shape. The wind is still cross-off ENE at 19 mph, which isn’t ideal, but it’s a clean, manageable breeze. For a spot like Publics, where the optimum swell direction is SSE, this ENE swell is a bit off-angle, but with that much period and power, it will still find a way to break. The water temperature is sitting at a warm 79°F, which is about average for the time of year – nothing unusual there, just good old-fashioned warm water.

Wednesday the 22nd of July looks similar, with a 4 ft, 16-second E swell and 1206 (strong) energy in the morning, still with that clean cross-off wind. The afternoon fades a bit as the period drops to 15 seconds and the wind picks up to 22 mph. After that, it fades away again on the 23rd and 24th.

So, to keep it simple: the first 11 days are a bust. The only real shot at a decent wave is Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd of July. It’s a long-period groundswell, so it might be a bit straight at a beach break, but the energy is there. If you’re an experienced surfer who can handle a bit of a wait for a set, that’s your window. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got.

Rusty.

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