Publics Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening with your local surf at Publics.

Right now, the lineup’s a write-off. We’ve got a big, messy 10-ft swell out of the ENE with a short, weak period of 9 seconds, and a strong cross-shore wind from the ESE at 25 mph making it a total mess. The combined wave energy is cooking at 2741, but it’s all for nothing – poor surf conditions with that cross-chop. You’d be a glutton for punishment to even look at it. Sunday afternoon doesn’t improve much: 8-ft ENE swell, still short period, still cross-shore wind, just less strong.

Monday the 17th is where we finally get a breather. The swell drops right back to 3-ft from the south, with a long 14-second period, and the wind swings to a cross-offshore from the ENE at 18 mph. It’s clean. The combined energy is way down to 666, so it’s weak, but it’s rideable. Monday afternoon is much the same – 3-ft S swell, still clean. It’s marginal, but it’s a start.

Tuesday the 18th stays clean with tiny 2-ft south swell, but the period is still solid at 13 seconds. The combined energy drops to 403, so it’s weak energy, and the surf quality is listed as poor. Wednesday the 19th is even smaller, 2-ft SW swell with a 16-second period – very long, very clean, but barely a ripple. Combined energy is just 281.

Here’s the standout: Thursday the 20th. That’s the best on offer in this whole run. We’ve got a clean, 2-ft SSW swell with a deep 18-second period in the morning, and it gets even better in the afternoon – still 2-ft, 17-second period, and the wind drops to a light breeze from the ENE at just 6 mph. It’s glassy. The combined energy is 281 in the morning, 254 in the afternoon, so it’s weak energy, but the conditions are “expect good surf conditions.” For a break like Publics, with a beach and reef setup that’s exposed to SSE swell, this long-period SSW groundswell will wrap in nicely. It’s a point-and-reef type of day, not a beach break, so that long period will actually shape up well. Water temp is a very warm 81°, about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd slip back into marginal territory. Small 2-ft SW swell with decent period, but the wind goes cross-on or cross, so it’s not clean. Not worth getting excited about.

Sunday the 23rd afternoon kicks off a building trend. We see 5-ft ENE swell with only a 7-second period – weak, short-period junk – and the combined energy hits 466, but the surf quality is poor. From Monday the 24th through Wednesday the 26th, swell builds from 5-ft to 8-ft out of the ENE, but the period stays short (7 to 8 seconds), and the wind is a stiff cross-offshore at 15 to 22 mph. The combined energy climbs from 404 to 932, but it’s all messy, weak-windswell. The surf quality is listed as poor or marginal.

Now, Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th get serious. Swell jumps to 10-ft ENE, period 10 seconds, combined energy over 2000 – that’s strong wave energy. By Friday the 28th, it’s 12-ft out of the east with a 9- to 10-second period, combined energy around 2446. The wind is cross-offshore and strong, 22 to 25 mph. This is big, powerful, but short-period swell. For a beach and reef setup like Publics, at over 8-ft this is experts-only territory. The short period will make it dumpy and fat on the beach, but the reef may handle it better. Still, the surf quality is only “marginal” – not a classic day. If you’re a kite surfer, this is looking more interesting than for a paddle surfer, with that strong cross-off wind and big, lumpy waves.

Saturday the 29th drops back to 7-ft ENE, still short period, combined energy 1043, still marginal. And then from Sunday the 30th into Monday the 31st, it fades back to tiny 2-ft south swell with very long periods yet again, but the surf quality is poor.

So, take it from me: if you’ve got a window, Thursday the 20th is your day. Small but perfect, clean, and glassy. Anything after that is either too small, too messy, or too big and ugly for a fun paddle. And remember, these long-range calls for the last week of August are always a bit less certain, so keep an eye on the wind shifts. Rusty out.

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