Publics Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the forecast for Publics.

To be straight with you, the outlook for the next 16 days is a bit of a mixed bag. We've got a prolonged stretch of messy, onshore energy that's going to be pretty tough to enjoy. The main issue is that the wind is locked in from the ENE for the vast majority of the period, blowing straight across the wave faces. It's a cross-off, but it's a strong breeze, often hitting 19 to 22 mph, and that's just going to put a chop on everything. The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is pretty normal for this time of year.

The first few days, from the 25th of August right through the end of the month, are a write-off. The swell is a mix of short-period, wind-affected stuff, mostly from the E or ENE, with heights around 6 ft to 6 ft. The combined wave energy is moderate (529 to 561), but it's all wind-slop with a period of only 7 seconds. There's no quality to it. The forecast scores are a flat zero or one, which tells you all you need to know. It's just not worth paddling out.

The first sign of something different arrives on the 26th and 27th, with a long-period S-SSW swell showing up. We're talking 14 to 18 second periods, which is proper groundswell. The heights are small, around 2 ft to 4 ft, and the energy is decent (600 to 850). But again, that 19 mph cross-off wind is going to make it a bumpy, frustrating session. The wave state is clean, but the wind is just too strong to get the best out of those long lines.

From the 29th of August right through to the 4th of September, it's back to the same story. Strong ENE wind and short-period, onshore swell. The swell heights are actually picking up, hitting 8 ft on the 3rd and 4th, but the period is a pathetic 7 to 8 seconds. The combined energy is moderate to strong (up to 928), but for a beach-and-reef setup like Publics, that's just a washing machine. The difficulty is for beginners, but with 8 ft of short-period, wind-affected slop, it's actually too big and messy for them. Honestly, this stretch looks a lot more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Now, if you can wait, there's a glimmer of hope. The 5th of September Saturday afternoon shows a shift. We get a 7 ft swell from the ENE with a period of 12 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1373 (strong). That's a bigger, more organized swell. The wind is still a strong breeze, but it's a bit less raw. The forecast is still marginal, but it's the first time the numbers hint at something rideable.

But the real standout, the best bet on the whole 16-day forecast, is the 7th of September (Monday afternoon). We've got a 6 ft swell from the ENE with a period of 11 seconds. The combined energy is a solid 1559 (strong), but the key is the wind. It's down to 12 mph from the E, which is a moderate breeze, and the break is exposed to the SSE, which is the optimum swell direction. The S-SSW groundswell on the 7th morning is also a sneaky option if you can get on it before the wind picks up. The 9th of September (Wednesday morning) also looks promising, with a 6 ft ENE swell and a 9-second period, with the wind dropping to just 12 mph from the E. That's the cleanest wind we've seen in a while. The 9th afternoon is even better, with 7 ft ENE swell and a gentle breeze of 9 mph from the ENE.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. Don't waste your time. The second week has a couple of windows of opportunity. The absolute best moment is Monday afternoon, the 7th of September. The Wednesday morning of the 9th is also a solid call. The wind is finally easing, and there's real energy in the water. It's a long-range call, so it's promising but less certain, but it's the only real light at the end of the tunnel.

Rusty.

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