Publics Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Publics has in store for us.

First off, the water temp is sitting at 80° with a tiny anomaly of 0.9°, so it’s pretty average for this time of year – nothing wild there, just your usual warm bath.

Honestly, mate, the first week-plus is a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a long stretch from Monday the 6th of July all the way through to Sunday morning the 12th of July where the conditions are just plain poor. The wind is hammering from the ENE at 25 to 25 mph, and while it’s cross-off, the swell is short-period windswell around 7 to 8 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (852 to 409), but the quality just isn’t there. The wave comment says it all: "poor surf conditions." You wouldn’t paddle out for this.

From around Saturday the 11th of July through to Monday the 13th of July, things tick up slightly to "marginal" – but that’s still a long way from good. The swell stays around 6 ft to 7 ft from the ENE, period still short (7-8 secs), and the wind is still up. The combined energy is moderate (740 to 699) but the surf is just messy and probably junky. Nothing to get excited about.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Tuesday morning the 14th of July, we finally get a standout window. The swell drops right off to 2 ft, but it’s coming from the SW with a very long period of 14 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The wind eases to just 9 mph from the ENE, cross-off. The combined energy is moderate (534), and the comment says "expect very good surf conditions." For a beach and reef setup like Publics, that long-period SW groundswell will line up beautifully on the reefs and points, giving you some clean, well-shaped waves. The wind is light, so it’ll be glassy. This is the best on offer.

After that, Wednesday the 15th through to Thursday the 16th sees another smaller pulse of long-period swell (14 to 16 seconds) from the SSW, but the heights drop to 2 ft to 2 ft, and the energy is moderate (441 to 294). It’s marginal, so worth a look if you’re desperate for a longboard, but not a standout.

Then from Friday the 17th of July right through to Monday the 20th of July, we’re back to poor conditions again. The ENE wind picks up to 15-22 mph, the swell is short-period (6-7 secs) and the energy is low to moderate (429 to 332). Not worth your time.

On Monday afternoon the 20th of July and into Tuesday the 21st of July, the swell drops again, but we get some very long-period energy (17 to 18 seconds) from the E and SW. The heights are small (2 ft to 2 ft) but the combined energy is moderate (413 to 630). Wind is still strong (18 mph cross-off), so conditions are marginal. That long-period stuff is better for the reefs and points, but the wind might spoil it.

Overall, if you’re after a real session, your best bet is Tuesday morning the 14th of July. That SW groundswell with light wind is the one to circle on the calendar. Everything else is either blown out or mushy.

Rusty.

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