Point Panic Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s shaping up at Point Panic. It’s a reef setup, exposed to the south swell, and it’s the only game in town for the next couple of weeks.

Overall, don’t get too excited just yet. The first week or so is looking pretty flat and ordinary. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak surf with moderate to fresh trade winds blowing, which keeps things a bit bumpy. It’s not until we get into the second week that we finally see a pulse of energy arriving.

Monday, August 3rd kicks things off with tiny 1 ft swell from the SSW, with a 13-second period. The wind is offshore from the ENE at 16 mph, so it’s clean, but the wave energy is really weak (95). The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is about normal for this time of year. You might get a wave, but it’s going to be a struggle to get a decent ride.

Tuesday, August 4th through Thursday, August 6th is more of the same story – small 1 ft to 2 ft swells, mostly from the SSW, with some longer period stuff sneaking in (16 seconds on Tuesday afternoon). The winds stay offshore or cross-offshore, so the surface is clean. But the energy is still low, ranging from 76 to 199. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about. The tides might be a factor too.

Friday, August 7th and into the weekend, the swell size stays tiny (1 ft to 2 ft), but the period jumps up to 20-21 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, but the energy is moderate (214 to 295). The problem is the wind – fresh ENE breeze at 19-22 mph. It’s offshore, so the waves will be clean, but that wind is strong. It’s going to be a battle to paddle out, and the waves will be small and straight-breaking on the reef. This is one for the experts with a lot of patience.

Monday, August 10th through Wednesday, August 12th shows a slow increase in swell height, hitting 2 ft on Tuesday and 3 ft on Wednesday afternoon. The energy is finally starting to build, hitting 680 on Wednesday afternoon. The swell direction is shifting to the S, which is the optimum direction for this spot. The wind is still fresh offshore, so the waves will be clean. But the period is dropping to 14-18 seconds, and the wind is strong. The Wednesday afternoon window has a “marginal” forecast, but it’s the first real sign of life.

Thursday, August 13th and Friday, August 14th continue with 3 ft to 3 ft S swell, with strong energy (507 to 583). The wind is still blowing fresh from the ENE, offshore. This is the best-looking stretch of the forecast, but it’s not a standout. It’s a solid, clean, intermediate-level wave.

The real standout is the brief window on Monday, August 16th and Tuesday, August 18th. On Monday morning, August 16th, we get 2 ft from the W with a moderate offshore breeze, and the energy is moderate (296). The comment says “expect good surf conditions.” But the real magic is Tuesday morning, August 18th. The wind goes completely glassy – 0 mph, calm. The swell is 2 ft from the W, with a period of 13 seconds and strong energy (379). That’s a clean, glassy morning with a little push from the west. It’s going to be a standout morning for the session. The break is fairly consistent, but crowds are often here, so expect company.

The rest of the second week is a mix of building wind and small, messy surf. The 3 ft to 3 ft S swells in the middle of the second week are the best of the bigger stuff, but the wind is a constant factor.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off unless you’re desperate for a paddle. The standout is the Tuesday, August 18th morning session with glassy conditions. The Thursday, August 13th through Friday, August 14th S swell is the best consistent run of waves. Keep an eye on that long-range promise, but don’t hold your breath for the first ten days.

Rusty.

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