Kohala Lighthouse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook for the next 16 days is a tough one. The model’s showing a long, bleak stretch of poor surf conditions at Kohala Lighthouse, with a real glimmer of something almost interesting right at the very end. We’re talking a solid two-week wait for anything that might be worth a paddle.

Right now, and for the entire first week through to the end of July 18, the story is the same. We’ve got a persistent cross-shore wind, mostly from the ENE at 22 mph, sometimes stronger, and it’s just wrecking the surface. The swell is hanging around in the 6 ft to 7 ft range, but it’s a short-period, messy windswell with a period of only 7 to 8 seconds. The combined energy sits in the moderate range, but it’s all wind-chop and lumpy lines. The water temperature is about average for the time of year.

The real kicker comes on July 18. The swell jumps up to 8 ft in the morning and hits 10 ft in the afternoon, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy cranks up to 1184 in the arvo, which is strong wave energy. But the wind is still a fresh cross-shore, and the forecast calls it “poor surf conditions.” For a wave that size, it’s going to be big, messy, and only for experts. Honestly, with that side-wind and a 10 ft chop, it looks more like a kite-surfing zone than a good paddle session.

Then, just when you think it’s all over, we get a small shift. On July 20 and 21, the swell direction swings to straight East, and the period jumps to 15 to 16 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, very long period. The wave height drops to around 4 ft to 4 ft. The combined energy is still strong (over 1059), but the wind is still a fresh cross-shore. The forecast ratings are a 1 out of 10, calling it “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” This is the only faint hope in the whole window. The long period means it’ll be better shaped, with longer lulls between sets, but it’s breaking at a reef break. A long period ENE swell hitting a reef can be okay, but that cross-breeze is a killer. The best chance would be if that wind backs off or goes light, but as of now, it’s not looking clean.

The rest of the forecast into July 24 is back to the same messy, short-period windswell pattern. There’s a massive gap of over two weeks with no truly good surf. The only timeframe that’s even a distant possibility is that Monday July 20 and Tuesday July 21, and even that’s a long shot with the wind. If the wind drops, grab a board and head out for those long, rolling lines. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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