Kua Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking flat and pretty ordinary for Kua Bay. The swell window is just not lining up, and we’ve got a long stretch of small, weak waves ahead. We’re talking about a real dry spell, with only a couple of brief windows where it might be worth paddling out, and even then, it’s not going to be anything to write home about.

The first week is a total write-off, to be honest. From Monday the 10th through to the following Sunday the 16th, the swell is tiny, mostly under 2 feet, with periods that aren’t doing us any favours. The energy in the water is weak, with values mostly in the single digits and 20s and 30s, like 21 on Monday morning, and 8 on Tuesday. It’s basically flat. There’s a bit of a bump on Thursday morning with a short-period NNE swell at 3 feet and a period of only 5 seconds, but that’s just messy and won’t have any push. Winds are all over the place, with some cross-onshore and fresh breezes from the north on Saturday the 15th, kicking up some lumpy chop. Not surfable.

We finally see a tiny glimmer of hope on Wednesday the 19th. The afternoon session is the first time the guidance flags anything as surfable, but it’s a very modest call. We’re looking at a 1 feet WNW swell with a 12-second period, and the combined energy finally gets into the two-digit range with a reading of 88. It’s glassy with a light westerly breeze, so the surface will be clean. It’s not big, but it’s the best we’ve seen. The water temp here is 81°, which is about normal for this time of year, so it’s comfortable.

Then we get another short window late in the month. On Thursday the 20th, the swell direction swings to the southwest, and we see a longer-period groundswell at 17-18 seconds. The energy bumps up to 102 on Thursday morning, which is moderate, but the swell height is still only 1 foot. That long period will mean better-shaped waves, and it’s really a point-break sort of swell. Kua Bay is exposed, but that long period might make it break a bit too straight. Still, if you’re desperate, the Thursday morning clean conditions with a light cross-shore might be your best bet. Friday the 21st has another pulse of long-period SW swell, but it’s weak at 40 energy.

After that, it fades out again. The second week is pretty sparse. The weekend around the 23rd and 24th is back to tiny 0.7-1 foot waves with weak energy. There’s a pretty significant gap of several days with no real surf on offer from the 24th through the 25th, with the swell dropping out completely. It’s a real flat spell.

So, the honest truth is that there’s nothing here that’s a standout. The only two moments that might be worth a look are the glassy Wednesday afternoon on the 19th, and the longer-period Thursday morning on the 20th. But even those are marginal, small-wave days. If you’re a beginner, you’re fine—it’s all small. For everyone else, this is a time to check the charts again. This is what a blank run looks like for this area. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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