Outside Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it's a grim stretch ahead. The forecast is a long, flat run of poor surf, with no real standout days. The first decent wave doesn't even show up until Thursday, July 16th, and even then, it's not great. You'll be looking at a lot of days with little to no surf before that.

Starting Thursday, July 16th, Outside (a reef break) has a bit of swell, around 5 ft from the east, but the period is a short, weak 7 seconds. The wind is a cross-offshore from the southeast at 19 mph, which keeps the surface clean, but the wave energy is weak (227). The water temp is a very warm 82°, about 1° above average for this time of year, so it's a bit like a bath. Still, it's poor surf.

Friday, July 17th, is a write-off with barely a ripple. Saturday and Sunday the 18th and 19th see a little more energy, but it's still weak and the wind is always cross or cross-off, never truly offshore. The swell stays around 4 ft to 5 ft, but the period is short, between 6 and 7 seconds, so the waves are fat and weak.

The whole first week is a letdown. The wind is mostly a fresh breeze, and the waves are just messy. The combined energy (moderate at best, like 245 on the 19th) is never enough to get excited about. There's a slight chance on Monday, July 20th, where the morning is clean with a 5 ft east swell, but it's still short period (7 seconds) and the energy is moderate (211). The forecast says "marginal," and I agree.

From there, it's a long slog. The second week is more of the same: small, weak east swells, cross-shore winds, and a lot of chop. The window from July 23rd to the 31st is a boring stretch of 4 ft to 5 ft waves with 5 to 7 second periods. The wind is either cross or cross-on, making it choppy and ugly. The energy is mostly weak, dipping below 100 a few times, like on July 25th and 26th with a combined energy of just 95. There's no standout, no magic window.

If you're desperate, that Thursday morning, July 16th, is the best of a bad bunch. The 5 ft east swell with cross-off wind is the only time the surface is clean with any size. But for a reef break, it's short period and weak. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, with the consistent cross-shore winds and chop. For stand-up surfing, it's a tough call. The forecast confidence is low for anything good, and it's just a flat spell. I'm not holding my breath.

Rusty.

Read more