Onrus Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. It’s a tough few weeks ahead for Onrus (South Africa), no doubt about it. The reef set-up is exposed to the SW, but the winds are just not playing ball for most of this forecast. We’ve got a proper big-swell window coming in the second week, but that’s only for the experts, if anyone’s mad enough to paddle out.

First up, Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th, we’ve got a solid 8.2 ft SW and SSW swell rolling in, with combined energy readings around 2600 (2644) and 2164 – that’s strong, powerful stuff. But the problem is the wind: a steady 9–12 mph cross-on from the east and southeast, so it’s choppy, messy, and the tide isn’t playing nice. The water temp is about normal for the time of year, so don’t expect any surprises there. Not worth the drive.

Saturday the 11th brings the same cross-on easterly, now up to 16–19 mph, with a 6.6 ft SSW swell (period 12 seconds, so still good groundswell shape, but the wind is just destroying it). Combined energy drops to around 1200, which is moderate, but the onshore wind creates lumpy, poor conditions. Sunday the 12th, the swell drops to 4.9 ft, winds still cross-on, and we’re into the 600s combined energy – weak, messy, forget it.

Monday the 13th, the swell collapses to 2.6 ft, combined energy just 224 – tiny, weak, and cross-on. Tuesday the 14th, it’s even worse: 1.6 ft and 2.0 ft, with a light cross wind but barely any push. A real flat spell.

Now, here’s a glimmer: Wednesday the 15th morning. The wind swings offshore from the WNW at 12 mph, and we get a 2.0 ft SW swell with a period of 16 seconds – that’s very long period groundswell. Combined energy is still low at 268, but those offshore winds will make it glassy. The swell is small, so only the inside banks might offer a clean little wave for a log or a mid-length. Wednesday afternoon has a side-offshore, but the rain moves in and the energy is still only 403.

Thursday the 16th, the swell jumps back up to 8.2 ft (combined energy 2405), but onshore southerly winds at 16–22 mph ruin it. Messy, blown-out. Friday the 17th, it’s a strong 25 mph cross-on from the east with 7.5 ft SSW swell – that’s strong wind and strong wave energy (1499), but it’s a washing machine. For kite surfers, this setup looks far more interesting than for paddle surfing. Saturday the 18th, winds ease to cross-shore, but swell is only 3.9 ft and weak (388 combined energy). Still poor.

Sunday the 19th brings a clean side-offshore from the W/NW at 12 mph, with a 3.0–3.9 ft WSW swell (period 12–13 seconds). Combined energy is 536–666 – weak to moderate. Clean, but small. Worth a look if you’re desperate, but don’t expect barrels.

Now, Monday the 20th morning is the first proper standout. We’ve got a clean offshore from the NNW at 12 mph, with a 5.2 ft WSW swell, period 11 seconds, and combined energy of 660 (moderate). The offshore wind will hold it open, the swell direction matches the optimum (SW-ish), and it’s a morning window. This is the best of the first two weeks. Crowds at Onrus are sometimes an issue, and with a good clean day like this, expect a few out. But it’s the one to aim for. Monday afternoon the wind cranks up to 25 mph offshore – too strong, impossible to paddle into.

Tuesday the 21st – here comes the big stuff. The morning shows a 11.5 ft SW swell, period 13 seconds, combined energy a massive 3457, and cross-offshore winds. The guidance says the tide and wind are favourable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. Over 8.2 ft is expert-only, and 11.5 ft on a reef? That’s serious. Only the most experienced should even look at it. Wednesday the 22nd, same story: 9.8 ft SW swell, even longer period (15 seconds), combined energy up to 4717, but cross-on wind from the SSW. Still too big and now choppy.

Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th

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